Pacific Ocean Salmon Tracking (POST)

An Acoustic Tracking Array for Studying Ocean Survival and Movements of Columbia

River Salmon

David Welch

Why Study Salmon in the Ocean?1. “Regional” Changes in Climate & Columbia R

Salmon Abundance have HappenedConfounding Effects from Different Causes…

… Increase Chances of Making the Wrong Diagnosis…Slow Down the Ability to Effectively Respond

2. Global Warming/Global Climate Change is Coming

3. The Need for a Salmon Life Cycle Perspective to Address the Issues POST

We need to understand where specific stocks move to in the ocean, and to measure their survival directly

Definitions of Ecology(1)“The study of the relationship of organisms

with their environment” (Haeckel 1866)(2)“The study of the distribution and abundance

of organisms” (Andrewartha and Birch 1954), and

(3)“Ecology is scientific natural history” (Elton 1927)

N Pacific Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey

(“Salmon” without Dams, Hatcheries, or Harvest …)

E. GoAC. GoA

W. GoAE. Aleut.W. Aleut.

S. BeringW Bering

W. Pacific

Japan

BC slope

Point 1: Plankton & Sea bird community composition both cluster into distinct regional assemblages– So the ocean is not one big homogeneous “black box”

150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 23040

45

50

55

Sea birds

150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 23040

45

50

55

Plankton

150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 23040

45

50

55

Plankton

W. Aleutian shelf

0

100

200

300

S. Bering

0

100

200

300

W. Bering

0

100

200

300

W. Pacific

0

100

200

300

NE Japan

0100200300

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Oct

02

Dec

02

Apr

03

Jun

03

Oct

03

Apr

04

Jun

04

Oct

04

Apr

05

BC shelf/slope

0

100

200

300

Mes

ozoo

Bio

mas

s

E. Gulf of Alaska

0

100

200

300

Mes

ozoo

Bio

mas

s

C. Gulf of Alaska

0

100

200

300

Mes

ozoo

Bio

mas

s

W. Gulf of Alaska

0

100

200

300

Mes

ozoo

Bio

mas

s

E. Aleutian shelf

0100200300

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Oct

02

Dec

02

Apr

03

Jun

03

Oct

03

Apr

04

Jun

04

Oct

04

Apr

05

Mes

ozoo

Bio

mas

s Point 2: Plankton changes over time are large (despite lack of dams, fishing, and hatcheries…) and differ between regions– So the ocean has big effects & is not one big homogeneous “black box”

Just How Much Will Climate Change?

(Ocean & Freshwater)…And How Will We “Manage” This?

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1880

1884

1888

1892

1896

1900

1904

1908

1912

1916

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Year

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (°

C)

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1880

1884

1888

1892

1896

1900

1904

1908

1912

1916

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Year

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (°

C)

Land

Ocean

Jan – Dec Global Surface Mean Temperature anomalies

Global Climate Change

Source: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1880

1884

1888

1892

1896

1900

1904

1908

1912

1916

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Year

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (°

C)

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1880

1884

1888

1892

1896

1900

1904

1908

1912

1916

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Year

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (°

C)

Land

Ocean

Jan – Dec Global Surface Mean Temperature anomalies

Global Climate Change

Source: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html

L Chelan Dam

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1880

1884

1888

1892

1896

1900

1904

1908

1912

1916

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Year

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (°

C)

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1880

1884

1888

1892

1896

1900

1904

1908

1912

1916

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Year

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (°

C)

Land

Ocean

Jan – Dec Global Surface Mean Temperature anomalies

L Chelan Dam

WanapumDam

John Day DamSnake R Dam

Boise R Dam

Bonneville Dam

Grand Coulee Dam

McNaryDam

Snake R Dam (Brownlee)

Dalles Dam

Lower Monumental D

am

L Chelan Dam

Payette R Dam

Wallowa R Dam

Snake R Dam

Rock I Dam

Rocky Reach Dam

Ice HarborPriest RapidsRocky ReachChief JosephLucky Peak Dam (Boise R)

Wells Dam

Little Goose Dam

Lower Granite

Dam

Dam chronology courtesy of John McKern

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.019

40

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Ocean Entry Year

SST

Ano

mal

y (°

C)

West Coast of Vancouver Island Temperature

Snake R Spring Chinook SAR

}0.7oC

SAR from Scheuerell and Williams (2005)

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Te

mpe

ratu

re A

nom

aly

(°C)

Mean Temperature of the Northern Hemisphere

reconstructed

1900 19 20 1940 196 0 1980 200 0

-0 .5

0

0 .5

1

observed

HadleyHadCM2Ga1

reconstructed

Goals of the POST ProjectA permanent continental-

scale array

Directly measure movement, distribution and survival of fish-including salmon- in continental shelf waters

Develop the ability to follow individual fish– or separate stocks – for decades.

(Expand the scientific observations to encompass a much wider range of oceanographic observations)

2004-05 POST Tagging- The Demonstration Phase

Cultus Lake Sockeye AnimationCourtesy of Baird & Associates

Vancouver, BC

2. Differences in Migration Routes-

Queen Charlotte Strait Listening Line

2004

Tag D

etecti

ons-Q

CS

0510

1520

25

13

57

911

1315

1719

21

Sensor

Num

ber

Detecti

ons

CULTUS LAKE SOCKEYE

2. Differences in Migration Routes-

Queen Charlotte Strait Listening Line2004 Tag Detections-QCS

05

10152025

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

Sensor NumberD

etec

tions CULTUS LAKE SOCKEYE

g

0

100

200

300

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

Sensor Number

Det

ectio

ns SAKINAW LAKE SOCKEYE

Cultus Lake Sockeye (2005)

0

50

100

150

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

Det

ectio

ns Cultus & Sakinaw Lake Sockeye (2005)

0

50

100

150

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

Det

ectio

ns

A Comparison of BC Salmon Survival Results from POST

BC Salmon Survival Freshwater & Marine

Only two stocks show differences in survival between years:

1. Cultus L sockeye survival in 2005 was 1/6th that measured in 2004

2. Keogh R steelhead survival higher in 2005 than 2004

3. All other survival measurements appear stable between years, suggesting that what we are measuring is “real”.

BC Salmon Survival–Comparison with Columbia R

(Prof Carl Schreck’s 2003-04 Snake R Chinook & Steelhead study)

POST’s Findings: Management Implications for Pacific Salmon

I. The ocean migration behaviour of different salmon species is not the same

II. There are differences in migration pathways (speed, route, distribution) of different populations of the same species

III. Distinguishing between ocean climate & hydrosystem effects on survival is critical to informed management of salmon populations

Where POST is Going:

SummaryA permanent measurement system is now feasible•For young salmon, 4 mo~2 year tags are feasible•For larger animals, tags can last decades•A complete census of fish (salmon, sturgeon, shad…) moving in & out of large rivers is now feasible•A wide range of other ocean sensors can be supported off this observation system.•Ocean survival can now be measured directly

Where POST is Going:

Key Points to Keep in MindIn combination, this will lead to an unprecedented ocean observing system telling us how the fish react to the changing ocean environment, where they move to, and where– and perhaps– how they die

POST will allow direct study of salmon in the ocean, with the response of free-ranging fish studied directly

These data are critical to forming a baseline of how salmon respond now, before climate change becomes even more pronounced

CONCLUSIONS“Ecology is he study of the relationship of organisms

with their environment” (Haeckel 1866)“Ecology is the study of the distribution and abundance

of organisms” (Andrewartha and Birch 1954)“Ecology is scientific natural history” (Elton 1927)

POST is a tool designed to open up the black box of the ocean and address issues critical to salmon management:

• Develop a baseline quantitative natural history• Understand why some salmon stocks do more poorly• Distinguish between Habitat, Hydropower, Hatcheries,

Harvest... & Environmental Change as competing explanations• Most fundamentally, to try to get ahead of the curve as the

environment changes and provide critical information

Where is POST Going?

POST 2004-2005

POST 2010