pabs procedural manual chapter 2. the pennsylvania...

updated2016-01-07

PABSPROCEDURALMANUAL

CHAPTER2.THEPENNSYLVANIABIOLOGICALSURVEY(PABS)STATUSDETERMINATIONPROCESS(revisedJanuary2016)

Chapter2,PABSStatusDetermination

updated2016-01-07

TABLEOFCONTENTS

INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................................................2-1 Statusdetermination.................................................................................................................................2-1 Regulatorylisting.........................................................................................................................................2-1NATURESERVESTATUSASSESSMENTS—PHASE1INTHEPABSSTATUSDETERMINATIONPROCESS..........................................................................................................................2-2 DefinitionsfortheNatureServestatusclassificationsystem.............................................2-3APPLYINGMODIFIEDIUCNCRITERIATOCOMPREHENSIVEDATA—PHASE2INTHEPABSSTATUSDETERMINATIONPROCESS.........................................................................2-5 Figure2-1.PABSstatusclassificationsystemflowchart...............................................................2-4 DefinitionsforthePABSstatusclassificationsystem.............................................................2-5 PABSelementsofconcern..................................................................................................................2-5 Qualifying..........................................................................................................................................2-5 NotEvaluated..................................................................................................................................2-6 Evaluated..........................................................................................................................................2-6 DataDeficient..................................................................................................................................2-6 AdequateData................................................................................................................................2-6 Extinct................................................................................................................................................2-7 StateExtirpated.............................................................................................................................2-7 ImmediateConcern......................................................................................................................2-7 Endangered.............................................................................................................................2-7 Threatened..............................................................................................................................2-8 CautionaryConcern......................................................................................................................2-8 NearThreatened...................................................................................................................2-8 Responsibility........................................................................................................................2-9 PABSLeastConcern.....................................................................................................................2-9 PABSstatusdeterminationsteps........................................................................................................2-9 Table2-1.COSEWIC’sadaptationofIUCN’scriteriaforelementstatus

determination....................................................................................................................................2-11 PABStechnicalcommitteemodificationsofIUCN/COSEWICcriteria.........................2-12 Additionalmodifiersthathavethepotentialtoupgradeordowngrade

thestatusofanelement................................................................................................................2-13 Examplesofmodifiersrelatedtotherescueeffect.....................................................2-13 Examplesofmodifiersrelatedtolifehistoryvariation.............................................2-14 Examplesofmodifiersrelatedtoprotectionsandthreats.......................................2-15 Theprecautionaryprinciple..................................................................................................2-16CHAPTER2REFERENCES...............................................................................................................................2-17Appendix2-A.NatureServeConservationStatusAssessments:MethodologyforAssigningRanks.........................................................................................................................................2-19

Appendix2-B.NatureServeConservationStatusAssessments:FactorsforEvaluatingSpeciesandEcosystemRisk.................................................................................................2-65

Appendix2-C.AppropriateUseofNatureServeConservationStatusAssessmentsinSpeciesListingProcesses..........................................................................................2-131

Appendix2-D.IUCNRedListCategoriesandCriteria.......................................................................2-135Appendix2-E.GuidelinesforUsingtheIUCNRedListCategoriesandCriteria.....................2-169Appendix2-F.GuidelinesforApplicationofIUCNRedListCriteriaatRegionalandNationalLevels...................................................................................................................2-257

Appendix2-G.COSEWICAssessmentProcess,Categories,andGuidelines.............................2-299

Chapter2,PABSStatusDetermination 2-1

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CHAPTER2.THEPENNSYLVANIABIOLOGICALSURVEY(PABS)STATUSDETERMINATIONPROCESS(revisedJanuary2016)

INTRODUCTION

PABSstatusdeterminationistheprocessofclassifyingtheentirerangeofriskofdeclineandpossibleextirpationfromthestate—fromEndangeredandThreatenedtoLeastConcern—ofspecies,subspecies,andvarietiesoforganismsandofecologicalcommunities(throughoutthisdocumentcalledelementsofbiodiversity,orsimplyelements).Itisanadaptationofinternationallyagreed-uponmethodsdevelopedbyNatureServe(Appendices2-A,2-B,and2-C),theInternationalUnionforConservationofNature(Appendices2-D,2-E,and2-F),andtheCommitteeontheStatusofEndangeredWildlifeinCanada(Appendix2-G).PABSstatusdeterminationisscience-basedandobjectiveandisintendedtobeaneasilyandwidelyunderstoodsystem.Theprocessfocusesattentiononthepreventionoffurtherdeclinesandontheneedforactiontorecoverlong-termviabilityforthoseelementsatriskofstateextirpation.ThePennsylvaniaGameCommission(PGC),PennsylvaniaFishandBoatCommission(PFBC),andPennsylvaniaDepartmentofConservationandNaturalResources(DCNR)weighadditionalconsiderations,forinstance,regulatory,sociopolitical,andeconomicramifications,priortotheregulatorylistingofanelement.Thedifferencesbetweenstatusdeterminationandregulatorylistingareclear-cut:

STATUSDETERMINATION

StatusdeterminationistheprocessbywhichPABS—inanindependentadvisorycapacitytothePGC,PFBC,andDCNR—evaluatesanelement’sriskoflossfromthestateandrecommendsorpetitionsthatanelementatriskbeconsideredforregulatorylistingasprovidedbylaw(WildResourceConservationAct:34Pa.C.S.A.§2167;34Pa.C.S.A.§2924;34Pa.C.S.A.§925;32P.S.§§5301–14).Determinationsaremadeusinganestablishedprocedurebasedonobjectivescience,expertopinion,criteriaspecifiedinofficialregulationsandnon-regulatoryguidelines,andcriteriafromauthoritiessuchasNatureServe(NatureServe2008;Faber-Langendoenetal.2012;Masteretal.2012),IUCN(IUCN2012a,2012b,2014),andCOSEWIC(COSEWIC2014).TheelementstatuslistmaintainedbyPABSisadvisory,notregulatory.ItisdesirabletomaintainconsistencybetweenPABSnon-regulatoryandagencyregulatorylists;undercurrentlawtheauthoritytodosorestswiththeagencies.

REGULATORYLISTING

RegulatorylistingistheprocessbywhichthePGC,PFBC,andDCNR—buildingontheindependentandscientificallyobjectivestatusdeterminationprocess—useanestablishedprocedure(specifyingpetition,documentation,andpublicparticipationrequirements,amongotheritems)andconsiderpolicy,cost/benefitcomparisons,currentprotectionprofiles,andotherfactorstoclassifyandlistelementsasEndangered,Threatened,orNearThreatened,andinthecaseofDCNR,RareorVulnerableinsteadofNearThreatened.


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NATURESERVESTATUSASSESSMENTS—PHASE1INTHEPABSSTATUSDETERMINATIONPROCESS

ThefirststepinthePABSelementstatusdeterminationprocessistoapplytheNatureServestatusassessmentmethod.NatureServeisanonprofitorganizationbasedintheU.S.thatlinkstogetherapublic-privatenetworkofindependentorganizationsoperatingacrosstheWesternHemisphere,includingstatenaturalheritageprograms.Itprovidesconservation-relateddata,tools,andservicestopartnerorganizations,privateandgovernmentclients,andthepublic.OneofNatureServe’ssoftwaretoolsanalyzesdatacollectedbynaturalheritageprogramstoratetheconservationstatusofelements(species,subspecies,andvarietiesoforganisms,andecologicalcommunities)usingstandardizedcriteriadesignedtobeasconsistentandobjectiveaspossible(Faber-Langendoenetal.2012;Masteretal.2012).Dataoneachelementarerunthroughtheassessmenttool,aMicrosoftExcel-basedspreadsheetknownastheRankCalculator.Itweighsvariousfactorswithinthecontextoftheparticularbiologyofanelementtoestimateitsriskofstateextirpationorglobalextinction.TheRankCalculatorisdesignedtobeusedatmultiplescaleswithinanelement’srange—attheglobal,national,orsubnational(state)level—makingitsuseanappropriatefirststepinconductingelementstatusdeterminationsforPennsylvania.

TheRankCalculatorworksbyevaluating10factorsin3categories—rarity,threats,andtrends.Atminimum,arankcanbecalculatedusingonerarityfactorandeitheronethreatoronetrendfactor.Theminimalapproachallowsstatusassessmentstobeconductedrapidly.Itcanbeappliedincaseswherelittleinformationisknownaboutanelement’sbiologyorifamorein-depthliteraturereviewispossiblebuttime-prohibitive.Inthebestcase,alldataavailabletoaddressmultipleRankCalculatorinputfactorsareincorporatedintoanelement’sstatusassessment.Dataavailabilityforeachrarity,threat,andtrendfactorvariesgreatlyacrossthespectrumofPennsylvania’sbiodiversity;theRankCalculatorstatusassessmentmethodenablesauniformityoftreatmentacrossvaryinglevelsofdataavailability.ThetaskofregularlyassessingtheconservationstatusforallofPennsylvania’squalifyingelementsisenormous,butitismadefeasiblebyusingtheRankCalculatorasafirststepinthestatusdeterminationprocedure.

TheRankCalculatorisaneffectivecoarse-filtertoolforconductingstatusassessmentsanddocumentingthefactorsconsideredforeachassessmentbutitisnotmeanttobeusedasthesolebasisforlistingordelistingelements(NatureServe2008).ThePABScriteriabasedonIUCN/COSEWICmethodologyconstituteamoreappropriatetoolkittolookingreaterdetailandatafinerscaleatextirpationrisks.TheRankCalculatorresultsarehelpfulforprioritizingwhichelementsneedtobemorecloselyevaluatedusingthePABScriteria.

TheRankCalculatorisperiodicallyupdatedasmoreinformationonextinctionrisksfortaxonomicgroupsbecomesavailableinthepeer-reviewedpublishedscientificliterature,(asofJanuary2016,thecurrentversionisRankCalculatorv3.186).

TheNatureServedefinitionsareindependentofthePABSstatuscategories;howeverthePABScategoriesmaybecrosswalkedtotheNatureServedefinitionswhenappropriate.Forsomeelements—e.g.,manyarthropodsandallecologicalcommunities—NatureServeassessmentsaretheonlymethodofstatusdeterminationdonesofar.


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DEFINITIONSFORTHENATURESERVESTATUSCLASSIFICATIONSYSTEM

FiveprimaryS-rankRankCalculatoroutputsareusedbyNatureServetodescribeanelement’sriskofextirpationfromasubnationalregion(stateorprovince):

S1 CriticallyImperiledinthestate/provincebecauseofextremerarity(often5orfeweroccurrences)orbecauseofsomefactor(s)suchasverysteepdeclinesmakingitespeciallyvulnerabletoextirpationfromthestate/province.

S2 Imperiledinthestate/provincebecauseofrarityduetoveryrestrictedrange,veryfewoccurrences(often20orfewer),steepdeclines,orotherfactorsmakingitveryvulnerabletoextirpationfromthenationorstate/province.

S3 Vulnerableinthestate/provinceduetoarestrictedrange,relativelyfewoccurrences(often80orfewer),recentandwidespreaddeclines,orotherfactorsmakingitvulnerabletoextirpation.

S4 ApparentlySecure—uncommoninthestate/provincebutnotrare;somecauseforlong-termconcernduetodeclinesorotherfactors.

S5 Secure—common,widespread,andabundantinthestate/province.

OtherS-rankdefinitionsareusedwhereexceptionsonelementstatusarenotcoveredbytheprimaryoutputs:

SNR Unranked—state/provinceconservationstatusisnotyetassessed.

SU Unrankablecurrentlyduetolackofinformationorduetosubstantiallyconflictinginformationaboutstatusortrends.

SX PresumedExtirpated—believedtobeextirpatedfromthestate/province;notlocateddespiteintensivesearchesofhistoricalsitesandotherappropriatehabitat,withvirtuallynolikelihoodthatitwillberediscovered.

SH PossiblyExtirpated(Historical)—occurredhistoricallyinthestate/provinceandthelikelihoodofrediscoveryisconsideredtobehighenoughtojustifyefforttorelocateoccurrences.Theelement’spresencemaynothavebeenverifiedinthepast20–40years.AnelementcouldbecomeSHwithoutsucha20–40yeardelayiftheonlyknownoccurrencesinastate/provinceweredestroyedorifithadbeenextensivelyandunsuccessfullylookedfor.

S#S#RangeRank—anumericrangerank(e.g.,S2S3)isusedtoindicateanyrangeofuncertaintyaboutthestatusoftheelement.Rangescannotskipmorethanonerank(e.g.,SUisusedratherthanS1S4).

SNA NotApplicable—conservationstatusrankisnotapplicablebecausetheelementisnotasuitabletargetforconservationactivities,e.g.,anonnativespeciesoranecologicalcommunitydominatedbynonnatives.


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1MostStateExtirpatedelementsdonotfallundertheumbrellaofImmediateConcern;however,thereareexceptions(seedescriptiononpage2-7).

2 PABS’sVascularPlantsTechnicalCommittee(VPTC),BryophytesandLichensTechnicalCommittee(BLTC),andDCNR’sRareandVulnerablecategoriesaresubdivisionsof,andcollectivelyequivalentto,NearThreatened.

3 TheVPTC,BLTC,andDCNR’sTentativelyUndeterminedcategory(TU)isequivalenttoDataDeficient.

FIGURE2-1.PENNSYLVANIABIOLOGICALSURVEY(PABS)STATUSCLASSIFICATIONSYSTEMFLOWCHART.Therevised(January2016)PABSelement*statusclassificationsystemisadapted,inpart,fromIUCNcategories(seeAppendix2-D),withaddedCautionaryConcerncategoriesthatemphasizepreventingelementsfrombecomingEndangeredorThreatened.ItisintendedtobethedefaultstatusclassificationsystemforallPABStechnicalcommittees,recognizingthatforsometaxaitmaybeappropriatetosubdividetheNearThreatenedstatuscategoryintotwoormoresubcategories,e.g.,theRareandVulnerablecategoriesofPABS’sVascularPlantsTechnicalCommittee(VPTC)andBryophytesandLichensTechnicalCommittee(BLTC).Seepages2-5–2-9fordefinitionsofthePABSstatuscategories.

*Elementsmaybespecies,subspecies,orvarietiesoforganismsorecologicalcommunities.


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APPLYINGMODIFIEDIUCNCRITERIATOCOMPREHENSIVEDATA—PHASE2INTHEPABSSTATUSDETERMINATIONPROCESS

Beforeelementsarerecommendedtothestateagenciesforlisting,PABStechnicalcommitteessubjectthemtoahigherlevelofscrutinythanistypicaloftheNatureServestatusassessmentmethod.ThePABSstatusdeterminationprotocolusesalloftheavailabledatapertinenttotheelement’sstatusinPennsylvaniaandappliescriteriadevelopedbytheInternationalUnionforConservationofNature(IUCN)modifiedforuseataregionallevelbytheCommitteeontheStatusofEndangeredWildlifeinCanada(COSEWIC)andbythePABStechnicalcommittees.BeforedescribingthePABSstatusdeterminationprocessindetail(beginningonpage2-9)itisexpedienttoclarifythedefinitionsofthecategoriesofPABSelementsofconcern(Figure2-1andbelow).

DEFINITIONSFORTHEPABSSTATUSCLASSIFICATIONSYSTEM(revisedJanuary2016)

PABSELEMENTSOFCONCERN

PABSelementsofconcernarespecies,subspecies,varieties,andspecial-significancepopulations*oforganismsandecologicalcommunitiesthatPABSbelievesareinneedofconservationactionorarelikelytobeconfirmedasinneedofconservationactionwithfurtherresearch.Neededconservationactionvariesdependingonpopulationnumbersandtheirtrends,onhabitatconditionsandtheirtrends,andonthedegreeandtypeofcurrentandpredictedthreat.Ononeextreme,theremayneedonlytobeperiodicmonitoringofelementoccurrences†andexistingandpotentialstressors.Ontheotherextreme,anelementmayalreadybeextirpatedorneedimmediatemeasurestopreventitsextirpationorextinction.Theoften-usedterms“speciesofconcern”and“speciesofconservationconcern”havenumerousdefinitions,someprescribedbyregulations.GenerallytheseotherdefinitionsarelessencompassingthanthedefinitionofPABSelementsofconcern.

QUALIFYING

Anelementqualifiesforevaluationifthereisadequatedocumentationthat:(1)itisnative(indigenous),i.e.,ithasfreelyoccurredinthewildinPennsylvaniaeitherpermanentlyorregularly—duringsomeportionofitsannualcycleinthecaseofspecies,subspecies,orvarieties—priortoandsinceEuropeansettlement,or(2)itisawild,free-rangingspecies,subspecies,orvarietythathasexpandeditsrangeintoPennsylvaniasubsequenttoEuropeansettlement,butwithoutdirecthumanassistance,fromaregionwhereitnaturallyoccurredandithasproducedviablepopulationsthathavepersistedforatleastathresholdnumberofyears.TherelevantconsecutiveyearsofresidenceformajorspeciesgroupsisdeterminedbyPABStechnicalcommittees.For

*SpecialpopulationsarewildpopulationsofspeciesofPABSLeastConcern(definedonpage2-9)consideredtobeofstate,regional,ornationalconservationsignificancebecauseoftheirpredictedimportanceforsustaininggeneticdiversityandevolutionarypotentialwithinthespecies.†Elementoccurrences,or“EOs,”areareasoflandorwaterwhereaspecies,subspecies,variety,orecologicalcommunityofconcernispresentandhaspracticalconservationvalue,i.e.,isorhasachanceofbeingviableforasignificantduration.


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instancetheOrnithologicalTechnicalCommitteeusesatleast10yearsforbirds;andtheMammalsTechnicalCommitteedefinesaresidentbreederasanycombinationof3breedingeventseitherinseparateyears,separateelementoccurrences,oracombinationofeither.Vagrants(characterizedbyashort-termoccurrenceoutsideof,butnearaspecies’,subspecies’,orvariety’susualrange)thatfailtoestablishpersistentresidentpopulationsspanningspecifiedtimeperiodsgenerallydonotqualifyforevaluation.AnelementmaybeconsideredaseligibleforevaluationifitisofImmediateConcernorCautionaryConcern(definedbelow)inadjacentstates.Mostsuchelementsareedge-of-rangespecies,subspecies,orvarieties,i.e.,theirtotalrangesbarelyoverlapPennsylvania’sborders.

NOTEVALUATED

AQualifyingelementisNotEvaluatedwhenithasnotbeenassessedusingtheNatureServeRankCalculatororIUCN/COSEWICcriteriaAthroughE(Table2-1).Formanyinvertebrate,fungus,andprotistspeciesandecologicalcommunitiesthathaveneverbeenevaluated,technicalcommittees(andsubcommittees)customarilyusetheNatureServeRankCalculatortodeveloplistsofrepresentativeelementswithhighpriorityforevaluationagainsttheIUCN/COSEWICcriteria.

EVALUATED

Atminimum,aQualifyingelementisEvaluatedwhenitsstatusinPennsylvaniahasbeenassessedusingtheNatureServeRankCalculator.TheobjectiveistofurtherevaluateallelementswithcalculatedS-ranksofS1,S2,andS3throughtheIUCN/COSEWICcriteriaAthroughE,somanyelementsthatqualifyasEvaluatedhavegoneonlypartwaythroughtheevaluationprocess.

DATADEFICIENT

AnEvaluatedelementisDataDeficientwhenthereareinsufficientdataavailabletoprovideanadequatebasisforitsassignmenttoanothercategory.TheseelementsdonothavesufficientRankCalculatorinputfactorstogenerateanS-rankotherthanSU(unknown).Itispossibleforanelementinthiscategorytobewellstudiedoritsbiologywellknownbutappropriatedataonstatusordistributionarelacking.DataDeficientisthereforeacategoryofPABSconcern.ThelistingofanelementasDataDeficientindicatesthatmoreinformationisneededandacknowledgesthepossibilitythatfutureresearchwillshowthatitisatriskandqualifiesforaPABSelementofconcerncategory.

ADEQUATEDATA

ThisevaluationcategoryincludesallelementswithsufficientinformationtoconductastatusassessmentusingPABSmethodology.


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EXTINCT

Extinctionistheglobaldisappearanceofanelement,usuallyaspecies,subspecies,orvariety.Thepassengerpigeon(Ectopistesmigratorius)isanexample.AnelementisExtinctwhenthereisnoreasonabledoubtthatthelastindividualhasdied,i.e.,whenexhaustivesurveysinknownandexpectedhabitatthroughoutitshistoricrange,atappropriatetimes(diurnal,seasonal,annual),andoveratimeframeappropriatetothespecies’lifecycleandlifeformhavefailedtorecordanindividual.

STATEEXTIRPATED

Extirpation,sometimesreferredtoaslocalorregionalextinction,isthedisappearanceofanelement—usuallyaspecies,subspecies,orvariety—fromagivenarea,inthiscasethestateofPennsylvania.Extirpationincreasestheprobabilityofanorganism’seventualextinctionbyreducingitspopulation,geneticdiversity,andgeographicrange.ElementsthathavedisappearedfromPennsylvaniasinceEuropeansettlementbutstillexistelsewherearecategorizedasStateExtirpated.ThecategoryincludesNatureServeranksSXandSH(seepage2-3).ElementsrankedSHareprovisionallyconsideredtobeStateExtirpatedbutthelikelihoodthattheymayberediscoveredisconsideredtobehighenoughtojustifyefforttorelocateoccurrences;thusafractionofStateExtirpatedelementsaretreatedasbeingofImmediateConcern,pendingmoreintensivesearching.

AnelementisStateExtirpatedwhen:(1)thereisahighlevelofcertaintythatthelastindividualofaspecies,subspecies,orvarietypotentiallycapableofreproductionhasdiedordisappeared;or(2)aspecies,subspecies,orvarietynolongerregularlyoccursinthestateduringanyportionofitsannualcycle;or(3)inthecaseofanecologicalcommunity,credibleanddetailedrecordsverifyitspresenceinthestatehistoricallybutnooccurrencesareknowntoday.ItisnotpossibletosetanygeneralrulesforatimeperiodsincethelastobservationbeforeanelementisclassifiedasStateExtirpated;itdependsonhowmuchefforthasbeendevotedtosearching.SomePABStechnicalcommitteeshaveadoptedspecifictimeframesforStateExtirpatedstatus.RediscoveredStateExtirpatedelementsandStateExtirpatedelementsthatarerestoredasaresultofarecoveryeffortmaybereclassifiedbythePABStechnicalcommitteestoadifferentPABSstatuscategory,usuallyEndangered.

IMMEDIATECONCERN(umbrellaterm)

ImmediateConcern,anumbrellatermforthePABSstatuscategoriesofEndangeredandThreatened,emphasizestheneedfortimelymanagementtostabilizeorrecoverextantpopulationsoroccurrencestothepointwheretheelement’sstatuscanbedowngraded.Theseelementshaveadequatedataavailabletomakeastatusdetermination.

ENDANGERED(includesCriticallyEndangeredandEndangeredofIUCN)

AnelementisEndangeredwhenthebestavailabledataorotherevidenceindicatethatitmeetsanyoftheIUCN/COSEWICcriteriaAthroughEforEndangered(Table2-1)and


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thereforefacesanextremelyorveryhighriskofextirpationthroughoutallorasignificantportionofitsrangewithinthestate.

THREATENED(equivalenttoVulnerableofIUCN)

AnelementisThreatenedwhenthebestavailabledataorotherevidenceindicatethatitmeetsanyoftheIUCN/COSEWICcriteriaAthroughEforThreatenedandthereforefacesahighriskofextirpationthroughoutallorasignificantportionofitsrangewithinthestate.

CAUTIONARYCONCERN(umbrellaterm)

CautionaryConcernisanumbrellatermforasetofPABSstatuscategoriesdesignedtofocusproactiveconservationattentiononelementstopreventtheirdecliningtothepointofqualifyingforEndangeredorThreatenedstatusandtoacknowledgePennsylvania’sspecialresponsibilitytocareforelementswithatleast10%oftheirNorthAmericanpopulationor25%oftheirNorthAmericanrangeintheCommonwealth.

NEARTHREATENED(equivalenttoNearThreatenedofIUCNandtoRareorVulnerableofsomePABStechnicalcommitteesandDCNR)

AnelementisclassifiedasNearThreatenedbymostPABStechnicalcommitteesandeitherRareorVulnerablebytheVascularPlantsTechnicalCommittee(VPTC)andtheBryophytesandLichensTechnicalCommittee(BLTC)ifitdoesnotqualifyasEndangeredorThreatenedbutissusceptibletodeclinebasedonthenatureofitsdistributionorhistoryofexploitation.Examplesinclude:(1)anelementwhosecalculatedNatureServeS-rankisS3orarangerankcontainingS3;(2)anelementthathasbeenevaluatedagainstIUCN/COSEWICcriteriaAthroughE(Table2-1)anddoesnotqualifyforEndangeredorThreatenedstatusbutnearlyqualifiesandislikelytoqualifyinthenearfuture;(3)anelementforwhichthelackofsufficientortimelydataprecludesusingIUCN/COSEWICcriteria,yetbasedonthespecies’historyofdecline,rangecontraction,orrarity,expertsconcludeitispotentiallyofImmediateConcern;(4)anelementwithanannuallifecycleresultinginasignificantportionofitspopulationbeingconcentratedinalimitednumberofsmallareassuchascolonies,maternityroosts,hibernationsites,clustersofvernalponds,orspawningbeds;(5)anuncommonelementthatissignificantlyseparated(disjunct)fromitsmainareaofdistributionorconfined(endemic)toaspecializedhabitat;(6)aqualifyingperipheral(limit-of-range)element,oftenfoundinspecializedhabitatsorinhabitatsinfrequentinPennsylvania;(7)acommerciallyvaluableorattractiveelementwithahighpotentialforexploitationsuchasginseng(Panaxquinquefolius),goldenseal(Hydrastiscanadensis),andsmallyellowlady’s-slipper(Cypripediumparviflorum).Atpresent,thecategorylabeledVulnerablebytheVPTC(andDCNR)referstothosethreespecies;alloftheotherexamplesareclassifiedbytheVPTCandBLTC(andDCNR)asRare.

Theinconsistencyinterminologyamongorganizationsandagenciesforthiscategorycanleadtoconfusion.ForsomeyearsseveralPABStechnicalcommitteesdevotedtoanimalspeciesusedthreepermutationsof“candidate”forthiscategory:Candidate


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Proposed,CandidateatRisk,andCandidateRare.PABSdroppedthetermcandidateasastatuscategorytoavoidconfusionwithitsusagewithadifferentmeaningbytheagencies.DuringthetimebetweenwhenPABSdeterminesanelementisThreatenedorEndangeredandwhenitislegallylistedassuch,theelementisacandidateforlisting.Useofthetermcandidateisanagencyprerogative.

RESPONSIBILITY

Responsibilityelementshaveatleast10%oftheirNorthAmericantotalpopulationor25%oftheirNorthAmericanrangeinPennsylvania.Inthelongrun,managingsource(orcore)populationsisamorebalancedconservationstrategythansolelyreactingtodeclines.Some,butnotall,ResponsibilityelementsarealsocategorizedasEndangered,Threatened,orNearThreatened.

PABSLEASTCONCERN

ElementsareofLeastConcernonlywithinthecontextofthePABSstatusclassificationsystem.LeastConcernelementsincludesomeofthemostimportantorganismsandecologicalcommunitiesfromthestandpointoftheirnumbers,distribution,andecologicalfunctions.ManyLeastConcernelements,especiallylarge,conspicuousones(e.g.,gameandtimberspeciesorcommonforestcommunities),aremanagedandmonitoredbyPennsylvania’sresourcemanagementagencies.Acknowledgingthelimited,mainlyvolunteerresourcesavailableforthemonumentaltaskofbiodiversitymonitoringandconservation,theprimaryfocusofPABSisonotherPABSelementsofconcerncategories.AlthoughmostPABSattentionisfocusedonstatuscategoriesotherthanLeastConcern,itisrecognizedthattheboundarybetweenLeastConcernandothercategoriesispotentiallyvolatile.TherecentexampleofPennsylvania’smostcommonbatspecies,thelittlebrownbat(Myotislucifugus),changingfromaLeastConcernelementtoanImmediateConcernelementinjustfouryears(2008to2012)exemplifiesthis.

PABSSTATUSDETERMINATIONSTEPS

Thestatusofmostvascularplant,vertebrate,mollusk,moth,butterfly,andecologicalcommunityelementshasalreadybeenassessedatleastonceandatleastthroughthesecondstepinthestatusdeterminationprocess(outlinedbelow).Others,includingmostnon-vascularplant,otherinvertebrate,fungus,lichen,andprotistelements,havenotyetbeenassessedforthefirsttime.

Elementsthathavealreadybeenassessedneedtobereassessedwhentherehavebeenchangesintheirstatusorwhennew,moreaccurate,detailed,orcomprehensivedatahavebecomeavailable.Reassessmentintroducestwopotentiallyconfusingterms:“upgrade”and“downgrade,”oralternatively“uplist”and“downlist.”“Up”and“down”inthiscaserefertolevelsofextirpationriskandthusconcern.Aspeciesfacingincreasingriskcanbeupgraded(uplisted).Forexample,theAlleghenywoodrat(Neotomamagister)isclassifiedasThreatenedinPennsylvania,butithascontinuedtodeclineforthreedecadessinceitslaststatusdetermination.Evaluatingthisspeciesusingmoreup-to-datedatasourcesmay


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leadtoanupgradetoEndangeredstatus.Aspeciesfacingdecreasingriskcanbedowngraded(downlisted).Thebaldeagle(Haliaeetusleucocephalus)isanexampleofaspeciesthatisdoingwellandhasrecentlybeendowngradedbythePGCandUSFWS.

Fourstepsarefollowedwhenelementsareinitiallyassessed(startingatstep1),whentheyarereassessed(startingatstep2),orwhenthereisapetitionforastatuschange(startingatstep2).

1. AlistofQualifyingelementsisprioritizedforassessmentfromchecklistsofnativespecies,subspecies,andvarietiesoforganismsandofecologicalcommunities.Forthebest-studiedelementgroups,e.g.,vertebratesandvascularplants,allelementshavebeenoreventuallycanbeassessed.Forothers,listsofQualifyingelementsmaybeintheformofaselectedsample.Theconservationstatusoftheselectedelementsisassessedusingtheweb-availablelatestversionofNatureServe’sRankCalculator(describedonpages2-2–2-3).

2. RankCalculatorresultsareusedtoprioritizeelementstobeevaluatedusingthemodifiedIUCN/COSEWICcriteria.Atthispointthemorecommonelements—thosewithcalculatedS-ranksofSX,S4,S5,S4S5,SU,orSNA—areconsideredtobeEvaluatedandareassignedtoaPABScategory,inmostcasestoStateExtirpated,LeastConcern,orDataDeficient.

3. ElementswithcalculatedS-ranksofSH,S1,S2,S3,orarangerankcontainingS3arefurtherassessedthroughtheIUCN/COSEWICcriteriaAthroughE(Table2-1)inordertobeassignedaPABSelementsofconcerncategory.

4. ForstatusdeterminationsofEndangeredandThreatened,assessmentresultsanddocumentationofallfindingsarecommunicatedtotheappropriateagency(seeChapter4).

TheIUCNcategoriesandcriteriausedinstep3havebeenadaptedtoaccommodatePennsylvania’sregulatorylanguageand46,055squaremile(119,280km2)area.TheCOSEWICmodifiedversionoftheIUCNsystemisusedbecauseIUCNcriteriaweredesignedtobeappliedataglobal,notregional,scale.PABSelementsofconcerncategoriesdiffersomewhatfromthoseusedbytheIUCN:PABS’sEndangeredcategoryincludesbothCriticallyEndangeredandEndangeredofIUCN;PABS’sThreatenedcategoryisequivalenttotheIUCN’sVulnerablecategory;andinIUCNparlanceThreatenedisanumbrellatermthatincludesbothImmediateConcernandCautionaryConcernofPABS.

DespitedifferencesinterminologyPABShasnotchangedthedefinitionsandexplanationsofIUCN/COSEWICcriteriaAthroughE(Table2-1).PABStechnicalcommitteesfollowIUCNandCOSEWIC’spublishedguidelines(Appendices2-Eand2-G)whenapplyingthecriteriatospecies,subspecies,varieties,andecologicalcommunities.However,somePABStechnicalcommitteeshavemademinormodificationstotheIUCN/COSEWICcriteriainrecognitionofthedistinctivebiologyofthegroupsoforganismswithintheirpurview.Thosemodificationsarethesubjectofthenextsection.


updated2016-01-07

TABLE2-1:COMMITTEEONTHESTATUSOFENDANGEREDWILDLIFEINCANADA(COSEWIC)’SADAPTATIONOFINTERNATIONALUNIONFORCONSERVATIONOFNATURE(IUCN)’SCRITERIAFORELEMENTSTATUSDETERMINATION.ThesearethePABSdefaultcriteria.MeetinganyonecriterionqualifiesanelementforthecorrespondingPABSstatuscategory.Somecriteriawillbeinappropriateforcertainelements;however,thereisatleastonecriterionappropriateforassessingtheconcerncategoriesforanyelement.Becauseitisseldomclearinadvancewhichcriteriaareappropriateforaparticularelement,eachelementisevaluatedagainstallofthecriteriaandeachcriterionmetatthehighestconcerncategoryislistedinthefinaldocumentationofanelement’sstatusdetermination.

CODES IUCNCRITERIADESCRIPTIONSCOSEWICADAPTATIONOFIUCNSTATUSCATEGORIES

ENDANGERED THREATENED

A__ REDUCTIONINPOPULATIONSIZEBASEDONANYOFTHEFOLLOWING:

A10 1. Anobserved,estimated,inferred,orsuspectedreductionintotalnumberofmatureindividualsoverthelast10yearsor3generations,whicheverislonger,wherethecausesareclearlyreversibleANDunderstoodANDceased,basedon(andspecifying)anyofthefollowing:a.directobservationb.anindexofabundanceappropriateforthetaxonc.adeclineinareaofoccupancy,extentofoccurrence,and/orqualityofhabitatd.actualorpotentiallevelsofexploitatione.theeffectsofintroducedtaxa,hybridization,pathogens,pollutants,competitors,or

parasites

reductionof≥70%

reductionof≥50%

A20 Anobserved,estimated,inferred,orsuspectedreductionintotalnumberofmatureindividualsoverthelast10yearsor3generations,whicheverislonger,wherethereductionoritscausesmaynothaveceasedORbeunderstoodORmaynotbereversible,basedon(andspecifying)anyofa.toe.underA10.

reductionof≥50%

reductionof≥30%

A30 Areductionintotalnumberofmatureindividualsprojectedorsuspectedtobemetwithinthenext10yearsor3generations,whicheverislonger(uptoamaximumof100years),basedonandspecifyinganyofanyofb.toe.underA10

reductionof≥50%

reductionof≥30%

A40 Anobserved,estimated,inferred,orsuspectedreductionintotalnumberofmatureindividualsoverthelast10yearsor3generations,whicheverislonger(uptoamaximumof100years),wherethetimeperiodmustincludebothpastandfutureandwherethereductionoritscausesmaynothaveceasedORbeunderstoodORmaynotbereversiblebasedon(andspecifying)anyofa.toe.underA10.

reductionof≥50%

reductionof≥30%

B__ SMALLDISTRIBUTIONRANGEANDDECLINEORFLUCTUATIONIN:

B10 Extentofoccurrenceestimatedtobe:and/or:

<5,000km2 <20,000km2

B20

Indexofareaofoccupancyestimatedtobe:andforeitherB10orB20estimatesindicatingatleasttwoofthefollowing(B30,B40,andB50):

<500km2 <2,000km2

B30 Eitherseverelyfragmented(isolatedsubpopulationswithareducedprobabilityofrecolonization,ifonceextinct)orknowntoexistat____locations.

≤5locations ≤10locations

B40 Continuingdeclineobserved,inferred,orprojectedinanyofthefollowing:a.extentofoccurrenceb.areaofoccupancyc.area,extent,and/orqualityofhabitatd.numberoflocationsorsubpopulationse.numberofmatureindividualsf.successfulreproductionandrecruitment

continuingdecline

continuingdecline

B50 Extremefluctuationsinanyofthefollowing:a.extentofoccurrenceb.areaofoccupancyc.numberoflocationsorsubpopulationsd.numberofmatureindividuals

extremefluctuations

extremefluctuations


updated2016-01-07

Table2-1Continued

CODES IUCNCRITERIADESCRIPTIONSCOSEWICADAPTATIONOFIUCNSTATUSCATEGORIES

ENDANGERED THREATENED

C__ SMALLANDDECLININGNUMBEROFMATUREINDIVIDUALS

C10 Totalnumberofmatureindividualsestimatedtobe:andoneofeitherofthefollowing(C20orC30):

<2,500 <10,000

C20 Anestimatedcontinuingdeclineintotalnumberofmatureindividualsofatleast___%within___yearsand___generations,whicheverislonger,uptoamaximumof100yearsinthefuture:

20%within5yearsor2generations


C30 Acontinuingdeclineobserved,projected,orinferredinthenumberofmatureindividualsandatleastoneofthefollowing(C40,C50&C60):

continuingdecline

continuingdecline

C40 Nosubpopulationestimatedtocontain: >250matureindividuals

>1,000matureIndividuals

C50 Onesubpopulationhas: ≥95%ofallmatureindividuals

100%ofallmatureindividuals

C60 Thereareextremefluctuationsinthenumberofmatureindividuals. extremefluctuations

extremefluctuations

D__ VERYSMALLORRESTRICTEDTOTALPENNSYLVANIAPOPULATION

D10 Totalnumberofmatureindividualsverysmallorrestricted,populationestimatedtohave:and/or:

<250matureindividuals

<1,000matureindividuals

D20 ForThreatenedorNearThreatenedonly,totalnumberofindividualsverysmallorrestricted;Pennsylvaniapopulationwithaveryrestrictedindexofareaofoccupancyornumberoflocationssuchthatitispronetotheeffectsofhumanactivitiesorstochasticeventswithinaveryshorttimeperiod(1–2generations)inanuncertainfuture,andisthuscapableofbecomingendangeredorextirpatedinaveryshorttimeperiod.

doesnotapply

Indexofareaofoccupancy<20km2or≤5locations

E__ QUANTITATIVEANALYSIS

E10 Quantitativeanalysis(populationprojections)showingtheprobabilityofextirpationinthewildis,forendangeredspecies,atleast20%within20yearsor5generations,whicheverislongeruptoamaximumof100years,orforthreatenedspecies,atleast10%within100years.


10%within100years

PABSTECHNICALCOMMITTEEMODIFICATIONSOFIUCN/COSEWICCRITERIA

ThefollowingmodificationsoftheIUCN/COSEWICcriteria(Table2-1)areusedbyPABStechnicalcommitteestoaccommodatethedistinctivebiologyofthegroupsoforganismswithintheirspheresofresponsibility.

AMPHIBIANSANDREPTILESTECHNICALCOMMITTEE(ARTC)

CodesA10toA40:inthelast(ornext)20yearsor4generationsCodeB30:≤6locationsforendangeredspeciesand≤11locationsforthreatenedspecies


updated2016-01-07

BRYOPHYTESANDLICHENSTECHNICALCOMMITTEE(BLTC)ANDVASCULARPLANTSTECHNICALCOMMITTEE(VPTC)

CodesB30andD20:1to5sitesforendangeredspeciesand6to20sitesforthreatenedspeciesCodeC10:<5,000individualsforendangeredspeciesand<10,000individualsforthreatenedspecies(TheVPTCandBLTChavehigherthresholdsofpopulationnumbersbecause(1)manyplantsareclonalandsothenumberofindividualsisnotnecessarilyequivalenttothenumberofindividualanimalsfromageneticdiversityperspective,and(2)plantreproductioninvolvesanyindividualplanthavingfarmorenumerousoffspringthananimalsbutfarhigheroffspringmortalitybeforeattainingmaturity.)

ORNITHOLOGICALTECHNICALCOMMITTEE(OTC)

CodesC10andD10:pairsinsteadofindividuals

ADDITIONALMODIFIERSTHATHAVETHEPOTENTIALTOUPGRADEORDOWNGRADETHESTATUSOFANELEMENT

Thenumberofindividualssurvivinginaspecies,subspecies,orvariety,whenacredibleestimateisavailable,existsinacontextbroaderthanjusttherateofdeclineandhabitatstatus,themainsubstanceoftheIUCN/COSEWICcriteria(Table2-1).Extirpationriskalsodependsonaparticularsetofthreats,genetics,lifehistorytraits(breedingbiology,behavior),andotheraspectsofanelementthatimpactsitssurvivalpotential.TechnicalcommitteestakeintoaccounttheseandotherfactorsinadditiontoIUCN/COSEWICcriteriainthestatusdeterminationprocess.Consideringthesefactorsisespeciallyusefulwhenanelementisclosetothethresholdbetweentwostatusclassifications.Theuseofmodifiersrequiresexperiencedjudgmentandadoseofpragmatism.ThefollowingexamplesofmodifiersarenotanexhaustivelistbutwillgiveanideaofthescopeandcomplexityofthestatusdeterminationprocessascarriedoutbyPABStechnicalcommittees.

EXAMPLESOFMODIFIERSRELATEDTOTHERESCUEEFFECT

Therescueeffectisthenaturalmovementofindividualsthroughaspecies’rangethatcanmitigatearegionalextirpationorlocalpopulationdecline.Ifthepotentialforrescueishigh,theriskofextirpationmaybereducedandthestatusmaybedowngraded.However,barrierstonaturaldispersalareincreasingwithdevelopmentandfragmentationofnaturallandscapes.Assisteddispersalisonemethodofincreasingthepotentialforrescue.SofarinPennsylvaniaassisteddispersalhasbeenlimitedtocharismaticvertebrates,e.g.,baldeagle(Haliaeetusleucocephalus),osprey(Pandionhaliaetus),peregrinefalcon(Falcoperegrinus),easternwildturkey(Meleagrisgallopavosilvestris),fisher(Martespennanti),elk(Cervuscanadensis),andblackbear(Ursusamericanus).

Likelihoodofpropagulemigration:Arethereanyconspecificpopulationsoutsidethetargetregionwithinadistancefromwhichindividualsorpropagulesarelikelytoreachtheregion?Arethereanyeffectivebarrierspreventingdispersaltoandfromnearbypopulations?Isthespeciescapableoflong-distancedispersal?Isitknowntodoso?Ifthere


updated2016-01-07

arenoconspecificpopulationsinneighboringregionsorpropagulesarenotabletodispersetotheregion,ahigherriskstatusissupported.

Evidencefortheexistenceoflocaladaptations:Isthereanyknowndifferenceinlocaladaptationbetweenregionalandoutsidepopulations,i.e.,isitprobablethatindividualsfromoutsidepopulationswillhavelowersurvival,reproduction,andrecruitmentwithintheregionthanindigenousindividuals?Ifitisunlikelythatindividualsfromnearbypopulationswouldhavehighfitnesswithintheregion,ahigherriskstatusissupported.

Availabilityofsuitablehabitat:Arecurrenthabitatandclimateconditionsintheregionfavorabletosuccessfulestablishmentofimmigratingindividualsorpropagulesorhasthespeciesdeclinedordisappearedfromtheregionbecauseconditionswerenotfavorable?Ifthereisnotenoughsuitablehabitatandcurrentconservationmeasuresarenotleadingtoanimprovementofthehabitatwithintheforeseeablefuture,immigrationfromoutsidetheregionwillnotdecreaseextirpationriskandahigherriskstatusissupported.

Statusofnearbypopulations:Howabundantisthespeciesinneighboringregionsorstates?Arethepopulationstherestable,increasing,ordecreasing?Aretheresignificantthreatstothosepopulations?Isitprobablethattheyproduceanappreciablenumberofemigrantsandwillcontinuetodosofortheforeseeablefuture?Ifthespeciesismoreorlesscommonoutsidetheregion,therearenosignsofpopulationdecline,thespeciesiscapableofdispersingtotheregion,andthereis(orsoonwillbe)availablehabitat,alowerriskstatusissupported.Ifthespeciesiscurrentlydecreasinginneighboringregions,therescueeffectislesslikelytooccurandahigherriskstatusissupported.

Degreeofdependenceonoutsidesourcepopulations:Areextantregionalpopulationsself-sustaining—showingastableorpositivenetreproductiverateovertheyears—oraretheydependentonimmigrationforlong-termsurvival(i.e.,aremostoralloccurrenceswithintheregionsinkpopulations)?Ifthereisevidencethatasubstantialnumberofindividualsorpropagulesregularlyreachtheregionandthepopulationstillhaspoorsurvival,theregionalpopulationmaybeasinkorseriesofsinks.Ifso,andthereareindicationsthatimmigrationisdeclining,ahigherriskstatusissupported.Bothsinksandsourcesareimportanttothelong-termsustainabilityofmetapopulations.Sinksarereservoirsofgeneticdiversityandthuscontributetoaspecies’evolutionarypotentialtoadapttochangingconditions.Theycanserveas“insurancepolicies”whenasourcepopulationisstruckbyacatastrophicdecline,e.g.,fromdisease,asevereweatherevent,industrialpollution,orhabitatdestruction.

EXAMPLESOFMODIFIERSRELATEDTOLIFEHISTORYVARIATION

Supplementingquantitativecriteria,statusassessmentscanbebased,inpart,onthedegreetowhichlifehistorycharacteristics(e.g.,ageandsizeatmaturity,dispersalstrategy,longevity)affectextinctionorextirpationprobabilityandthelikelihoodthatthespeciesisvulnerabletotheAlleeeffectofdensity-dependentpercapitapopulationgrowthrate.Allelsebeingequal:


updated2016-01-07

Indeterminategrowth:Forindeterminatelygrowingorganisms(speciesthatcontinuetogrowafterattainingmaturity),largerspeciestendtobeatgreaterriskofextinctionorextirpationthansmallerspecies.

Dispersal:Specieswithlowdispersalratestendtobeatgreaterriskofextinctionorextirpationthanspecieswithhighdispersalrates.

Generationoverlap:Specieswithnon-overlappinggenerationstendtobeatgreaterriskofextinctionorextirpationthanspecieswithoverlappinggenerations.

Specialist:Speciesthatdependonarestrictedtypeofhabitatorfoodsourceandcannotadjusttoalterations,whethernaturalorhuman-caused,areextinction-andextirpation-prone.

Reproductionandmortality:Long-livedspecieswithlowreproductiveratesandlownaturalmortality(e.g.,bats)haveahigherprobabilityofextinctionorextirpation.

Speciesconcentrations:Speciesbreedingincoloniesorrequiringlargenumbersoftheirownkindforprotection,tolocatefoodsources,orforothermeansofsurvivalarevulnerabletoextinctionorextirpation.

EXAMPLESOFMODIFIERSRELATEDTOPROTECTIONSANDTHREATS

Protectionsandthreatsaretwosidesofthesamecoin.Forinstance,thelackofregulatorymechanismstoprotectanelementofImmediateConcernisathreat.Whatprotectionsexist,areneeded,orarepotentiallyavailabletostabilizeorrecoverstateEndangeredandThreatenedelements?Theseprotectionsmightincludebutarenotlimitedto:(1)astateendangeredspeciesactincludingamandatetopreparerecoveryplans;(2)adequateandreliablefundstoimplementrecoveryefforts;(3)theamountofcriticalhabitatalreadyextantandprotectedonpubliclands;and(4)thedegreetowhichcriticalthreatshavebeenidentifiedandarepotentiallycontrollableorreversible.

Duringtheelementevaluationprocess,ahigherriskstatusissupportedifthetoolsandpotentialtoprotecttheelementbeingevaluatedareseverelylimited.

Thebaldeagleprovidesausefulexampleofhowprotectionhasworked.First,adequateregulatorymechanismsexistedandamongotherdictatesincludedtherequirementforarecoveryplan.Second,therewerefederalfundsavailabletohelpstatesimplementtheplan.Third,therewasadequatehabitatavailableonpubliclands.Lastly,chlorinatedhydrocarbonswereidentifiedasthecriticalthreatandlegislationledtotheremovalofthisthreat,settingthestagefortheeagle’srecovery.Bycontrast,theextentandnatureoftheprotectionsavailableforstateThreatenedandEndangeredspeciesfallfarshortofthoseavailabletoprotectfederallylistedspecies.

ThreatsareaccountedforintheIUCN/COSEWICcriteria(Table2-1)butonlytotheextentthattheyare:“…clearlyreversibleandunderstoodandceased;…ormaynothaveceasedorbeunderstoodormaynotbereversible.”Additionalinformationaboutthreatscanbeusedtoupgradeordowngradeaspeciesbeingevaluated.Whenthreattrends—e.g.,rateofincreaseordecreaseinextentandseverityofathreat,thenumberofdifferentthreats,and


updated2016-01-07

anticipatednewthreats—areincorporatedintoelementstatusconsiderations,theurgencyforneededprotectionsmaychange.Accountingforthenatureandextentofthisurgencyispartofthestatusdeterminationprocess.

TheIUCNandtheConservationMeasuresPartnership(CMP),anotherglobalorganization,haveclassifiedthreatstoelementsofbiodiversity.Theirclassificationscheme(IUCNandCMP2011)togetherwithconsiderationsofthreatseverity,extent,andtrends,compriseathreatsassessmenttoolkitforthestatusdeterminationprocess.Theclassificationconsistsoftwolevelsofsubcategorieswithin11generalcategories:residentialandcommercialdevelopment;agricultureandaquaculture;energyproductionandmining;transportationandservicecorridors;biologicalresourceuse;humanintrusionsanddisturbance;naturalsystemmodifications(e.g.,fireexclusion,dams);invasiveandotherproblematicspecies,genesanddiseases;pollution;geologicalevents;climatechangeandsevereweather.

Climatechangeisathreatcharacterizedbymuchuncertaintyabouthowitwillaffectparticularspecies,subspecies,andvarietiesoforganisms.Duetothelikelihoodofcomplexnonlinearandsynergisticeffects,itsimpactsonecologicalcommunitiesareevenlesscertain.NatureServehasbeguntocompilepredictionsofthevulnerabilityofspeciestoclimatechangewithitsClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex(Youngetal.2015)andextendingthemethodtoecologicalcommunitiesisintheworks(Comer2015).Climatechangevulnerabilityanalyseshavebeendonefor85plantandanimalelementsofconcerninPennsylvaniatodate(PNHP2015)andadditionalanalysesareunderway.Forelementspredictedtobehighlyvulnerabletoongoingandexpectedfutureweathertrends—e.g.,highermaximumtemperatures,widerseasonaltemperaturevariation,longerandmorefrequentdroughts,greaterseverityandfrequencyofstorms—ahigherriskstatusmaybesupported.Forelementspredictedtoberesilienttothesetrends,alowerriskstatusmaybesupported.

THEPRECAUTIONARYPRINCIPLE—THEULTIMATEMODIFIER

Whenuncertaintyprevails,theprecautionaryprinciplecomesintoplay.Statusdeterminationssometimesarecomplicatedbyhighlevelsofuncertainty.Itisoftenhardtopredictwithconfidencehowandatwhatratehabitatswillbechangedorhowwildpopulationswillreacttoasynergisticcombinationofsuchchanges.Theprecautionaryprincipleadmonishesthatifthereisastrongsuspicionamongqualifiedexpertsthatthreatsprecipitatedbysuchchangeswillresultinanelement’sdeclineinnumbersorareaofoccupancy,timelyprotectionsarewarrantedtolowertheriskofirreversiblefutureconsequences.Basedonsuchconcerns,ratherthanwaitingforincontrovertibleevidencesupportingaparticularstatus,atechnicalcommitteemayassignThreatenedorEndangeredstatustoanelementdespitetheneedformoredata.Thestatuscanlaterbedowngradediffurtherscientificfindingsemergethatprovidesoundevidencethatnoharmwillresult.


updated2016-01-07

CHAPTER2REFERENCES

Comer,P.2015.Climatechangevulnerabilityindexforecosystemsandhabitats:supportingvulnerabilityassessmentandadaptationstrategiesatregionalscales(webpage).NatureServe,Arlington,Virginia.http://www.natureserve.org/conservation-tools/climate-change-vulnerability-index-ecosystems-and-habitats(accessed2015-12-07)

COSEWIC.2014.COSEWICAssessmentProcess,Categories,andGuidelines.CommitteeontheStatusofEndangeredWildlifeinCanada,Gatineau,Québec.19pp.http://www.cosewic.gc.ca/pdf/Assessment_process_and_criteria_e.pdf(accessed2015-12-07;alsoincludedinthisdocumentasAppendix2-G)

Faber-Langendoen,D.,J.Nichols,L.Master,K.Snow,A.Tomaino,R.Bittman,G.Hammerson,B.Heidel,L.Ramsay,A.Teucher,andB.Young.2012.NatureServeConservationStatusAssessments:MethodologyforAssigningRanks.NatureServe,Arlington,Virginia.44pp.http://www.natureserve.org/sites/default/files/publications/files/natureserveconservationstatusmethodology_jun12_0.pdf(accessed2015-12-07;alsoincludedinthisdocumentasAppendix2-A)

IUCN.2012a.IUCNRedListCategoriesandCriteria,Version3.1,secondedition.InternationalUnionforConservationofNature,Gland,SwitzerlandandCambridge,U.K.32pp.http://cmsdocs.s3.amazonaws.com/keydocuments/Categories_and_Criteria_en_web+cover+bckcover.pdf(accessed2015-12-07;alsoincludedinthisdocumentasAppendix2-D)

IUCN.2012b.GuidelinesforApplicationofIUCNRedListCriteriaatRegionalandNationalLevels,Version4.0.InternationalUnionforConservationofNature,Gland,SwitzerlandandCambridge,U.K.41pp.http://cmsdocs.s3.amazonaws.com/keydocuments/Reg_Guidelines_en_web+cover+backcover.pdf(accessed2015-12-07;alsoincludedinthisdocumentasAppendix2-F)

IUCN.2014.GuidelinesforUsingtheIUCNRedListCategoriesandCriteria,Version11.InternationalUnionforConservationofNature,Gland,SwitzerlandandCambridge,U.K.87pp.http://cmsdocs.s3.amazonaws.com/RedListGuidelines.pdf(accessed2015-12-07;alsoincludedinthisdocumentasAppendix2-E)

IUCNandCMP.2011.IUCN-CMPUnifiedClassificationofDirectThreats(version3.1).InternationalUnionforConservationofNature,Gland,SwitzerlandandCambridge,U.K.andConservationMeasuresPartnership.20pp.http://www.iucnredlist.org/documents/June_2012_Guidance_Threats_Classification_Scheme.pdf(accessed2015-12-07;alsoincludedinthisdocumentasAppendix2-H)

Master,L.L.,D.Faber-Langendoen,R.Bittman,G.A.Hammerson,B.Heidel,L.Ramsay,K.Snow,A.Teucher,andA.Tomaino.2012.NatureServeConservationStatusAssessments:FactorsforEvaluatingSpeciesandEcosystemRisk.NatureServe,Arlington,Virginia.64pp.http://www.natureserve.org/sites/default/files/publications/files/natureserveconserva


updated2016-01-07

tionstatusfactors_apr12.pdf(accessed2015-12-07;alsoincludedinthisdocumentasAppendix2-B)

NatureServe.2008.AppropriateUseofNatureServeConservationStatusAssessmentsinSpeciesListingProcesses.NatureServe,Arlington,Virginia.2pp.http://www.natureserve.org/prodServices/pdf/NatureServeStatusAssessmentsListing-Dec2008.pdf(accessed2015-12-07;alsoincludedinthisdocumentasAppendix2-C)

PNHP.2015.ClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex.PennsylvaniaNaturalHeritageProgram,DepartmentofConservationandNaturalResources,WesternPennsylvaniaConservancy,PennsylvaniaGameCommission,andPennsylvaniaFishandBoatCommission,HarrisburgandPittsburgh.http://www.naturalheritage.state.pa.us/CCVI.aspx(accessed2015-12-07)

Young,B.E.,E.Byers,G.Hammerson,A.Frances,L.OliverandA.Treher.2015.GuidelinesforUsingtheNatureServeClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex,Release3.0.NatureServe,Arlington,Virginia.63pp.http://www.natureserve.org/sites/default/files/publications/files/guidelines_natureserveclimatechangevulnerabilityindex_r3.0_15_apr2015.pdf(accessed2015-12-07)

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