owen electric cooperative 2006 load forecast prepared by: east kentucky power cooperative, inc....
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Owen Electric Cooperative2006 Load Forecast
Prepared by:East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc.
Forecasting and Market Analysis Department
July 2006
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Table of Contents
• Introduction and Executive Summary 5
• Narrative 16
• Key Assumptions 22
• Methodology and Results 30
– Residential Forecast 35
– Public Buildings 40
– Small Commercial 42
– Large Commercial 44
– Other Forecast 46
– Peak Day Weather Scenarios 49
• RUS Form 341 52
Page Number
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IntroductionExecutive Summary
Owen Electric Cooperative (Owen Electric) located in Owenton, Kentucky, is an electric distribution cooperative that serves members in nine counties. This load forecast report contains Owen Electric’s long-range forecast of energy and peak demand.
Owen Electric and its power supplier, East Kentucky Power Cooperative (EKPC), worked jointly to prepare the load forecast. Factors considered in preparing the forecast include the national and local economy, population and housing trends, service area industrial development, electric price, household income, weather, and appliance efficiency changes.
EKPC prepared a preliminary load forecast, which was reviewed by Owen Electric for reasonability. Final projections reflect a rigorous analysis of historical data combined with the experience and judgment of the manager and staff of Owen Electric. Key assumptions are reported beginning on page 22.
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Executive Summary (continued)
The load forecast is prepared biannually as part of the overall planning cycle at EKPC and Owen Electric. Cooperation helps to ensure that the forecast meets both parties’ needs. Owen Electric uses the forecast in developing two-year work plans, long-range work plans, and financial forecasts. EKPC uses the forecast in areas of marketing analysis, transmission planning, generation planning, demand-side planning, and financial forecasting.
The complete load forecast for Owen Electric is reported in Table 1-1. Residential and commercial sales, total purchases, winter and summer peak demands, and load factor are presented for the years 1990 through 2025.
8
Year
ResidentialSales
(MWh)
SeasonalSales
(MWh)
SmallComm.Sales
(MWh)
Public Buildings (MWh)
LargeComm.Sales
(MWh)
OtherSales
(MWh)
TotalSales
(MWh)
OfficeUse
(MWh)%
Loss
PurchasedPower(MWh)
1990 312,603 0 46,235 3,669 20,123 177 382,807 733 8.3 418,4571991 343,499 0 61,339 4,116 24,809 172 433,934 647 5.3 458,9411992 342,536 0 61,727 5,994 24,192 172 434,622 637 5.2 458,9291993 378,860 0 66,082 7,480 24,535 158 477,115 572 6.0 508,1881994 399,328 0 72,341 7,995 25,204 152 505,020 893 4.7 530,9261995 421,304 0 93,085 8,656 29,310 152 552,508 1,056 4.5 579,4771996 452,162 0 92,937 9,215 35,603 148 590,065 1,074 5.2 623,3941997 459,953 0 102,512 8,985 33,835 150 605,436 1,001 4.2 633,1511998 479,197 0 113,645 9,435 32,309 140 634,727 947 5.6 673,6491999 512,392 0 125,681 9,472 43,239 153 690,938 999 4.6 725,4842000 538,817 0 140,359 9,630 75,839 351 764,997 1,087 3.2 791,1952001 563,943 0 141,591 9,875 97,497 413 813,318 1,017 6.4 869,8712002 615,132 0 138,298 11,002 113,503 559 878,494 1,041 3.9 915,4572003 621,331 0 150,927 11,883 119,196 665 904,002 1,202 4.8 950,5522004 652,706 0 161,106 12,421 138,685 570 965,488 1,899 3.7 1,004,2442005 696,107 0 178,068 11,928 173,061 522 1,059,686 1,900 3.2 1,096,6572006 699,613 0 182,917 11,960 200,701 524 1,095,715 2,000 4.0 1,143,4532007 718,179 0 190,383 12,266 200,900 533 1,122,261 2,000 4.0 1,171,1052008 743,957 0 197,797 12,617 208,015 541 1,162,927 2,000 4.0 1,213,4662009 771,986 0 205,188 13,018 209,845 550 1,200,586 2,000 3.9 1,251,3912010 799,635 0 212,458 13,369 212,950 558 1,238,969 2,000 3.9 1,291,3312011 824,566 0 219,504 13,679 224,867 566 1,283,181 2,000 3.9 1,337,3372012 853,761 0 226,336 14,031 228,760 574 1,323,461 2,000 3.8 1,377,8182013 883,475 0 233,191 14,415 232,754 582 1,364,417 2,000 3.8 1,420,3922014 911,590 0 240,133 14,763 236,789 590 1,403,866 2,000 3.8 1,461,3992015 939,605 0 247,126 15,091 240,843 598 1,443,263 2,000 3.7 1,500,7922016 968,707 0 254,153 15,426 244,904 606 1,483,796 2,000 3.7 1,542,8832017 996,923 0 261,177 15,773 257,233 614 1,531,720 2,000 3.7 1,592,6482018 1,027,023 0 268,261 16,132 261,301 622 1,573,339 2,000 3.7 1,635,8662019 1,058,092 0 275,393 16,496 265,369 630 1,615,980 2,000 3.7 1,680,1452020 1,092,950 0 282,521 16,816 277,703 638 1,670,628 2,000 3.7 1,736,8932021 1,127,378 0 289,670 17,166 281,774 646 1,716,634 2,000 3.7 1,784,6662022 1,161,671 0 296,830 17,502 285,844 654 1,762,501 2,000 3.7 1,832,2962023 1,195,772 0 303,940 17,766 289,912 662 1,808,052 2,000 3.7 1,879,5972024 1,232,572 0 311,040 18,029 293,979 670 1,856,291 2,000 3.7 1,929,6902025 1,265,779 0 318,126 18,287 306,310 678 1,909,181 2,000 3.7 1,984,611
2006 Load ForecastOwen EC
MWh Summary
Table 1-1
9
Winter Summer
Season
NoncoincidentPeak Demand
(MW) Year
NoncoincidentPeak Demand
(MW) Year
PurchasedPower(MWh)
Load Factor(%)
1989 - 90 121.3 1990 87.9 1990 418,457 39.4%1990 - 91 105.6 1991 95.3 1991 458,941 49.6%1991 - 92 116.5 1992 93.6 1992 458,929 45.0%1992 - 93 122.5 1993 109.8 1993 508,188 47.4%1993 - 94 148.5 1994 110.1 1994 530,926 40.8%1994 - 95 152.3 1995 121.6 1995 579,477 43.4%1995 - 96 133.2 1996 118.1 1996 623,394 53.4%1996 - 97 158.7 1997 144.0 1997 633,151 45.6%1997 - 98 140.0 1998 147.7 1998 673,649 52.1%1998 - 99 164.3 1999 175.6 1999 725,484 47.2%1999 - 00 175.1 2000 169.6 2000 791,195 51.6%2000 - 01 191.5 2001 193.4 2001 869,871 51.3%2001 - 02 177.3 2002 203.6 2002 915,457 51.3%2002 - 03 217.0 2003 210.8 2003 950,552 50.0%2003 - 04 217.1 2004 218.2 2004 1,004,244 52.5%2004 - 05 225.1 2005 254.2 2005 1,096,657 49.2%
2005 - 06 227.8 2006 253.7 2006 1,143,453 51.4%
2006 - 07 259.4 2007 259.8 2007 1,171,105 51.5%2007 - 08 268.1 2008 267.8 2008 1,213,466 51.7%2008 - 09 277.7 2009 276.3 2009 1,251,391 51.4%2009 - 10 286.9 2010 284.3 2010 1,291,331 51.4%2010 - 11 297.3 2011 293.8 2011 1,337,337 51.3%2011 - 12 305.7 2012 301.1 2012 1,377,818 51.5%2012 - 13 316.4 2013 310.4 2013 1,420,392 51.3%2013 - 14 325.8 2014 318.6 2014 1,461,399 51.2%2014 - 15 334.8 2015 326.5 2015 1,500,792 51.2%2015- 16 343.4 2016 334.0 2016 1,542,883 51.3%2016 - 17 355.7 2017 345.1 2017 1,592,648 51.1%2017 - 18 365.5 2018 353.8 2018 1,635,866 51.1%2018 - 19 375.6 2019 362.7 2019 1,680,145 51.1%2019-2020 387.2 2020 373.0 2020 1,736,893 51.2%2020-2021 399.1 2021 383.4 2021 1,784,666 51.0%2021-2022 409.9 2022 392.8 2022 1,832,296 51.0%2022-2023 420.6 2023 402.2 2023 1,879,597 51.0%2023-2024 430.5 2024 410.8 2024 1,929,690 51.2%2024-2025 444.0 2025 423.0 2025 1,984,611 51.0%
Owen EC2006 Load Forecast
Peaks Summary
Table 1-1 (continued)
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Executive Summary (continued)
Overall Results
• Total sales are projected to grow by 3.0 percent a year for the period 2005-2025, compared to 3.8 percent which was projected in the 2004 load forecast for the period 2004-2024. Results shown in Table 1-2 and Figure 1-1.
• Winter and summer peak demands for the same period indicate annual growth of 3.4 and 2.6 percent, respectively. Annual peaks shown in Figure 1-2.
• Load factor will remain steady at 51% for the forecast period. See Figure 1-3.
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Executive SummaryOverall Results (continued)
TimePeriod Residential
Small Commercial
Large Commercial Other
Total Sales
1995-2000 5.0% 8.6% 20.9% 18.2% 6.7%2000-2005 5.3% 4.9% 17.9% 8.3% 6.7%2005-2010 2.8% 3.6% 4.2% 1.3% 3.2%2010-2015 3.3% 3.1% 2.5% 1.4% 3.1%2015-2020 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 1.3% 3.0%2020-2025 3.0% 2.4% 2.0% 1.2% 2.7%
1995-2005 5.1% 6.7% 19.4% 13.1% 6.7%2005-2015 3.0% 3.3% 3.4% 1.4% 3.1%2015-2025 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 1.3% 2.8%
5 Year Growth Rates
Table 1-2Owen EC
2006 Load ForecastSummary of Sales Growth
10 Year Growth Rates
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Figure 1-1 Average Annual Growth in Sales 2005-2025
3.0%2.9% 2.9%
1.3%
3.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Residential Small Commercial
Large Commercial
Other Total Sales
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Figure 1-2Peak Demand Forecast Winter and Summer
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Su
m O
f S
ub
sta
tio
ns
Pe
ak
De
ma
nd
(M
W)
Winter History Winter Forecast Summer History Summer Forecast
15
Figure 1-3Annual System Load Factor
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
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NarrativeTerritory
Owen Electric Cooperative headquarters are located in Owenton, Kentucky. Owen Electric serves nearly 54,000 members over approximately 4,900 miles of electric line. Owen serves regions in Boone, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Owen, Pendleton, and Scott Counties.
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Narrative (continued)Counties Served
Owen Electric provides service to members in 9 counties.Figure 1-4
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
Scott County
Pendleton County
Owen County
Kenton County
Grant County
Gallatin County
Carroll County
Campbell County
Boone County
Number of Members
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Narrative (continued)Local Economy and Customer GrowthResidential
A major portion of Owen EC’s residential growth continues to come from the large-scale developments in the northern service area. The local economy continues to remain strong.
Much of the growth takes place around the Northern Kentucky/ Greater Cincinnati Airport and the middle of Kenton County south of the Ft. Mitchell area. These areas have had two new substations added in recent years and four substations in the area have been upgraded. Two additional substations are being evaluated in the area.
The Alexandria area in Campbell County has continued to expand and with the new Hwy. 27 relocation the growth in the area will remain strong. Several other road projects will open up areas for development and they include the Turkeyfoot Road realignment (Kenton), Hwy 17 (Kenton), Hwy 42 (Boone) and the I-71/Markland Dam Connector (Gallatin).
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Narrative (continued)Local Economy and Customer GrowthCommercial
Commercial connects have remained strong with OEC adding several large loads last several years. Airpark International is a 300 acre site with only two or three lots remaining. There is property available that could be encompassed in this park in the future.
IDI Inc. has developed a 125 acre, Parkwest, tract in the Hebron area. Parkwest is a combination of warehouse and light industrial loads. There are no more lots to be developed in this park and the Hebron Substation was constructed to accommodate the loads in the area and in Parkwest.
Airpark West and Gateway Industrial Park, located near Bullitsville Substation, have three large loads presently located there with many lots available. Several large loads have been inquiring about lots in these parks.
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Narrative (continued)Local Economy and Customer GrowthIndustrial Parks
Circleport II and Riverview Business Park, located in and around the Smith Substation, have been active with one or two buildings being added every year or so. Smith Substation has been expanded to a dual station to accommodate the load in the area. Circleport has several large lots remaining as does Riverview.
Enterprise V in Kenton County and Richwood Industrial Park in Boone have several lots available.
Other areas in the nine counties serve large loads and are dispersed throughout the OEC service territory and much of the land along the Ohio River Valley continues to be viable for large industrial/commercial locations.
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Narrative (continued)Owen Electric MembersDemographic Information
• There is an average of 2.63 people per household.
• 43% of all homes are headed by someone age 55 or greater.
• 15% of homes have farm operations, with beef cattle being most prevalent.
• 38% of all homes served are less than 10 years old.
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Key AssumptionsPower Cost and Rates
• EKPC’s wholesale power cost forecast used in this load forecast comes from the following report: “Twenty-Year Financial Forecast, Equity Development Plan, 2006-2025”, dated January 2006.
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Key Assumptions (continued)Economic
EKPC’s source for economic forecasts is DRI-WEFA.
(%) Change
(%) Change
(%) Change
(%) Change
(%) Change
(%) Change
(%) Change
1990 344,103 1.5% 180,392 5.5% 115,497 5.0% 3.5% -22.5% $26,440 0.4% $8,399 1.4% $24,408 -0.1%
1991 349,452 1.6% 178,882 -0.8% 121,671 5.3% 5.5% 58.0% $26,220 -0.8% $8,529 1.5% $24,406 0.0%
1992 354,500 1.4% 180,957 1.2% 125,506 3.2% 6.2% 13.3% $27,263 4.0% $8,862 3.9% $24,999 2.4%
1993 360,691 1.7% 183,490 1.4% 129,937 3.5% 5.3% -13.8% $27,707 1.6% $9,000 1.6% $24,953 -0.2%
1994 365,753 1.4% 186,113 1.4% 140,633 8.2% 4.7% -12.2% $28,509 2.9% $9,333 3.7% $25,517 2.3%
1995 371,503 1.6% 190,613 2.4% 154,575 9.9% 4.4% -5.3% $30,216 6.0% $9,583 2.7% $25,794 1.1%
1996 376,514 1.3% 191,975 0.7% 161,794 4.7% 4.4% 0.0% $30,854 2.1% $10,037 4.7% $26,658 3.4%
1997 383,404 1.8% 199,678 4.0% 169,420 4.7% 4.1% -8.5% $31,703 2.8% $10,556 5.2% $27,531 3.3%
1998 389,397 1.6% 202,205 1.3% 177,753 4.9% 3.4% -16.0% $32,074 1.2% $11,097 5.1% $28,497 3.5%
1999 395,346 1.5% 206,458 2.1% 188,376 6.0% 3.2% -5.9% $33,044 3.0% $11,539 4.0% $29,188 2.4%
2000 401,277 1.5% 211,827 2.6% 192,238 2.1% 3.3% 1.6% $33,770 2.2% $12,234 6.0% $30,488 4.5%
2001 405,841 1.1% 212,557 0.3% 190,683 -0.8% 4.9% 49.2% $35,313 4.6% $11,802 -3.5% $29,079 -4.6%
2002 409,667 0.9% 207,582 -2.3% 191,687 0.5% 4.5% -7.2% $35,534 0.6% $12,219 3.5% $29,827 2.6%
2003 414,374 1.1% 220,466 6.2% 194,727 1.6% 5.1% 13.9% $36,046 1.4% $12,435 1.8% $30,008 0.6%
2004 419,764 1.3% 215,867 -2.1% 196,696 1.0% 5.0% -2.1% $36,137 0.3% $12,617 1.5% $30,057 0.2%
2005 425,151 1.3% 218,409 1.2% 202,718 3.1% 5.4% 7.3% $36,615 1.3% $12,930 2.5% $30,414 1.2%
2006 430,665 1.3% 220,444 0.9% 207,540 2.4% 5.3% -0.8% $36,137 -1.3% $13,220 2.2% $30,697 0.9%
2007 436,265 1.3% 222,258 0.8% 211,838 2.1% 5.4% 0.8% $36,615 1.3% $13,478 2.0% $30,894 0.6%
2008 441,922 1.3% 224,216 0.9% 216,475 2.2% 5.3% -1.3% $36,980 1.0% $13,741 2.0% $31,095 0.6%
2009 447,618 1.3% 225,891 0.7% 220,443 1.8% 5.2% -1.9% $37,280 0.8% $13,987 1.8% $31,247 0.5%
2010 453,340 1.3% 227,348 0.6% 223,895 1.6% 5.2% -0.1% $37,555 0.7% $14,249 1.9% $31,431 0.6%
2015 482,121 1.2% 232,293 0.4% 235,610 1.0% 5.0% -0.9% $39,227 0.9% $15,456 1.6% $32,058 0.4%
2020 510,983 1.2% 238,790 0.6% 251,000 1.3% 4.8% -0.6% $40,372 0.6% $16,892 1.8% $33,057 0.6%
2025 539,857 1.1% 245,575 0.6% 267,074 1.2% 4.8% 0.0% $41,437 0.5% $18,502 1.8% $34,271 0.7%
2030 568,732 1.0% 251,684 0.5% 281,545 1.1% 4.8% -0.3% $42,455 0.5% $20,231 1.8% $35,571 0.7%
Notes: Wages & Per Capita Income are in constant 2006 dollars; Income is in millions of constant 2005 dollars.
Growth rates are average annual changes. Data for 2004 and 2005 are simulated.
Forecast
Long-Term Forecast
Actual
Real Per Capita Income
Regional SummaryNorth Economic Region History and Forecast
Unemployment Rate
Regional Income
Population Labor ForceTotal
EmploymentAverage Real
Wages
24
Key Assumptions (continued)Share of Regional Homes Served
Figure 1-5
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
19
89
19
90
19
92
19
93
19
95
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
01
20
03
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
09
20
11
20
12
20
14
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
20
20
22
20
23
20
25
Sh
are
(%)
Owen Electric’s market share will increase for the forecast period.
25
Key Assumptions (continued)Household IncomeMembers’ Greatest Sources
Figure 1-6
Agriculture2%
Education3%
Construction8%
Manufacturing14%
Retail & Service18%Retirement
30%
Transportation,Communication, Utilities
11%
Other14%
26
Key Assumptions (continued)Appliance Saturations
• Room air conditioner saturation is declining due to customers choosing central air conditioning systems.
• Appliance efficiency trends are accounted for in the model. The data is collected from Energy Information Administration, (EIA).
See Figure 1-7.
27
Key Assumptions (continued)Saturation Rates Non HVAC Appliances
• Microwave Oven 99%
• Electric Range 89%
• Dishwasher 73%
• Freezer 49%
• Clothes Dryer 99%
• Personal Computer 74%
28
Key Assumptions (continued)Figure 1-7
Residential Appliance Efficiency Trends East South Central Region
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
141
99
7
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
Eff
icie
nc
y R
ati
ng
Heat Pump Heating (HSPF)Heat Pump Cooling (SEER)Central Air (SEER)Room Air (EER)Water Heating (EF)
All of the projections are very similar to what was used in the 2004 Load Forecast. However, the 2004 Load Forecast assumption was just below 8 by 2024 whereas this update shows the trend continuing above 8.
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Efficiency Trend Update, 2005
29
Key Assumptions (continued)Weather
• Weather data is from the Covington weather station.
• Normal weather, a 30-year average of historical temperatures, is assumed for the forecast years.
30
Methodology and ResultsIntroduction
This section briefly describes the methodology used to develop the load forecast and presents results in tabular and graphical form for residential and commercial classifications. Table 1-3 through Table 1-5 shows historical data for Owen Electric as reported on RUS Form 736 and RUS Form 5.
A preliminary forecast is prepared during the first quarter depending on when Owen Electric experiences its winter peak. The first step is modeling the regional economy. Population, income, and employment are among the areas analyzed. The regional model results are used in combination with the historical billing information, appliance saturation data, appliance efficiency data, and weather data to develop the long range forecast.
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Table 1-3
YearkWh Purchased
And GeneratedChange kWh Sold Change kWh Loss % Loss
Annual
Load
Factor
Average
Number Of
Consumers
Miles
Of
Line
Consumers
Per Mile
Cost Of
Purchased Power
Cents
/ kWh
1993 508,187,978 476,815,403 30,710,367 6.0% 47.6% 32,395 3,983 8.1 $20,580,506 4.0
1994 530,926,244 4.5% 505,020,115 5.9% 25,173,178 4.7% 40.6% 33,814 4,048 8.4 $21,839,082 4.1
1995 874,312,027 64.7% 847,342,649 67.8% 26,322,413 3.0% 45.1% 35,211 4,130 8.5 $29,665,439 3.4
1996 1,264,150,637 44.6% 1,230,821,751 45.3% 32,691,882 2.6% 53.5% 36,726 4,200 8.7 $37,464,023 3.0
1997 1,388,429,731 9.8% 1,360,714,324 10.6% 27,143,884 2.0% 60.5% 38,556 4,296 9.0 $40,692,945 2.9
1998 1,369,699,421 -1.3% 1,330,777,376 -2.2% 38,028,891 2.8% 58.3% 40,439 4,372 9.2 $41,010,947 3.0
1999 1,627,169,307 18.8% 1,592,622,090 19.7% 33,491,074 2.1% 64.4% 42,174 4,445 9.5 $48,128,495 3.0
2000 1,697,366,577 4.3% 1,671,168,087 4.9% 25,124,858 1.5% 65.4% 43,880 4,544 9.7 $55,268,343 3.3
2001 1,862,308,397 9.7% 1,805,755,763 8.1% 55,552,022 3.0% 68.0% 45,691 4,618 10.5 $63,076,154 3.7
2002 1,920,948,184 3.1% 1,883,985,919 4.3% 36,015,112 1.9% 66.8% 47,741 4,690 10.2 $64,790,614 3.4
2003 1,958,287,793 1.9% 1,911,737,016 1.5% 45,552,105 2.3% 65.6% 49,940 4,771 10.5 $72,451,538 3.7
2004 2,048,527,629 4.6% 2,008,544,392 5.1% 38,896,606 1.9% 68.2% 51,811 4,836 10.7 $85,026,798 4.2
2005 2,100,670,151 2.5% 2,052,510,159 2.2% 47,143,144 2.2% 60.7% 53,598 4,940 10.8 $99,819,927 4.8
2.4% 3.5
342.7
395.4
296.3
312.6
328.4
340.6
Average
Owen Electric Comparative Annual Operating DataPeak
Demand
(MW)
121.7
149.2
221.4
262.1
270.0
268.0
288.3
32
Table 1-4
Year kWh Sales%
Change
kWh
Sales
%
ChangekWh Sales
%
ChangekWh Sales
%
ChangekWh Sales
%
ChangekWh Sales
%
Change
1993 386,340,082 0 66,082,491 24,235,200 157,630 0
1994 407,322,904 5.4% 0 72,341,056 9.5% 25,204,176 4.0% 151,979 -3.6% 0
1995 429,960,127 5.6% 0 93,085,177 28.7% 324,145,388 1186.1% 151,957 0.0% 0
1996 452,162,183 5.2% 0 92,936,699 -0.2% 676,359,799 108.7% 148,010 -2.6% 9,215,060
1997 459,953,451 1.7% 0 102,511,730 10.3% 789,114,202 16.7% 149,912 1.3% 8,985,029 -2.5%
1998 479,197,336 4.2% 0 113,645,143 10.9% 728,359,514 -7.7% 140,190 -6.5% 9,435,193 5.0%
1999 512,391,708 6.9% 0 125,680,412 10.6% 944,924,650 29.7% 153,438 9.5% 9,471,882 0.4%
2000 538,817,463 5.2% 0 140,359,442 11.7% 982,010,619 3.9% 350,636 128.5% 9,629,927 1.7%
2001 563,942,641 4.7% 0 141,591,470 0.9% 1,089,934,508 11.0% 412,556 17.7% 9,874,588 2.5%
2002 615,131,733 9.1% 0 138,298,048 -2.3% 1,118,994,429 2.7% 559,418 35.6% 11,002,291 11.4%
2003 621,330,747 1.0% 0 150,926,754 9.1% 1,126,931,163 0.7% 664,915 18.9% 11,883,437 8.0%
2004 652,705,506 5.0% 0 161,106,275 6.7% 1,181,741,263 4.9% 570,391 -14.2% 12,420,957 4.5%
2005 696,107,196 6.6% 0 178,068,306 10.5% 1,165,884,543 -1.3% 522,176 -8.5% 11,927,938 -4.0%
2 Year 37,388,225 5.8% 13,570,776 8.6% 19,476,690 1.7% -71,370 -11.4% 22,251 0.2%
5 Year 31,457,947 5.3% 7,541,773 4.9% 36,774,785 3.5% 34,308 8.3% 459,602 4.4%
10 Year 26,614,707 4.9% 8,498,313 6.7% 84,173,916 13.7% 37,022 13.1% 1,192,794
Average Annual Change
Owen Electric Comparative Annual Operating Data
ResidentialResidential
Seasonal
Commercial /
I ndustrial
(1 MW Or Less)
Commercial / I ndustrial
( Over 1 MW)
Public Street /
Highway LightingPublic Authorities
33
Table 1-5
Year Consumerskwh /
Mo.Consumers
kwh /
Mo.Consumers
kwh /
Mo.Consumers kwh / Mo. Consumers
kwh /
Mo.Consumers
kwh /
Mo.
1993 31,497 1,022 0 879 6,265 2 1,009,800 17 773 0
1994 32,854 1,033 0 939 6,420 4 525,087 17 745 0
1995 34,180 1,048 0 1,007 7,703 6 4,502,019 18 704 0
1996 35,416 1,064 0 1,087 7,125 8 7,045,415 18 685 197
1997 37,159 1,031 0 1,165 7,333 10 6,575,952 18 694 204
1998 38,931 1,026 0 1,264 7,492 12 5,058,052 19 615 213 3,691
1999 40,550 1,053 0 1,373 7,628 18 4,374,651 20 639 213 3,706
2000 42,113 1,066 0 1,510 7,746 21 3,896,868 19 1,538 217 3,698
2001 43,799 1,073 0 1,625 7,261 24 3,784,495 19 1,809 224 3,674
2002 45,779 1,120 0 1,690 6,819 22 4,238,615 20 2,331 230 3,986
2003 47,906 1,081 0 1,753 7,175 29 3,238,308 21 2,639 231 4,287
2004 49,741 1,094 0 1,791 7,496 31 3,176,724 21 2,263 227 4,560
2005 51,461 1,127 0 1,853 8,008 37 2,625,866 21 2,072 226 4,398
10 Year Avg. 1,728 8 85 30 3 -187,615 0 137
5 Year Avg. 1,870 12 69 52 3 -254,200 0 107 1.8 140
2 Year Avg. 1,778 23 50 417 4 -306,221 0 -283 -2.5 55.63
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Consumers 1,357 1,326 1,236 1,743 1,772 1,619 1,563 1,686 1,980 2,127 1,835 1,720
kWh/ month 11 15 16 -32 -6 27 13 7 47 -39 13 34
Annual Changes I n Owen Electric's Residential Class
Owen Electric Comparative Annual Operating Data
ResidentialResidential
Seasonal
Commercial /
I ndustrial
(1 MW Or Less)
Commercial /
I ndustrial
( Over 1 MW)
Public Street /
Highway LightingPublic Authorities
34
Methodology and Results (continued)
The preliminary forecast was presented to Owen Electric staff, and reviewed by the Rural Utilities Services (RUS) Field Representative. Changes were made to the forecast as needed based on new information, such as new large loads or subdivisions. In some instances, other assumptions were changed based on insights from Owen Electric staff. Input from EKPC and Owen Electric results in the best possible forecast.
35
Methodology and Results (continued)Residential Forecast
Residential customers are analyzed by means of regression analysis with resulting coefficients used to prepare customer projections. Regressions for residential customers are typically a function of regional economic and demographic variables. Two variables that are very significant are the numbers of households by county in each member system's economic region and the percent of total households served by the member system. Table 1-6 and Figure 1-8 report Owen Electric’s customer forecast.
The residential energy sales were projected using a statistically adjusted end-use (SAE) approach. This method of modeling incorporates end-use forecasts and can be used to allocate the monthly and annual forecasts into end-use components. This method, like end-use modeling, requires detailed information about appliance saturation, appliance use, appliance efficiencies, household characteristics, weather characteristics, and demographic and economic information. The SAE approach segments the average household use into heating, cooling, and water heating end-use components. See Figure 1-9. This model accounts for appliance efficiency improvements. Table 1-6 reports Owen Electric’s energy forecast.
36
Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales
AnnualAverage
AnnualChange
%Change
MonthlyAverage(kWh)
AnnualChange(kWh)
%Change
Total(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
1990 27,499 947 312,6031991 28,760 1,261 4.6 995 48 5.1 343,499 30,896 9.91992 30,006 1,246 4.3 951 -44 -4.4 342,536 -962 -0.31993 31,319 1,313 4.4 1,008 57 6.0 378,860 36,323 10.61994 32,670 1,351 4.3 1,019 11 1.0 399,328 20,468 5.41995 33,989 1,319 4.0 1,033 14 1.4 421,304 21,976 5.51996 35,416 1,427 4.2 1,064 31 3.0 452,162 30,858 7.31997 37,159 1,743 4.9 1,031 -32 -3.0 459,953 7,791 1.71998 38,931 1,772 4.8 1,026 -6 -0.6 479,197 19,244 4.21999 40,550 1,619 4.2 1,053 27 2.7 512,392 33,194 6.92000 42,113 1,563 3.9 1,066 13 1.3 538,817 26,426 5.22001 43,799 1,686 4.0 1,073 7 0.6 563,943 25,125 4.72002 45,779 1,980 4.5 1,120 47 4.4 615,132 51,189 9.12003 47,906 2,127 4.6 1,081 -39 -3.5 621,331 6,199 1.02004 49,741 1,835 3.8 1,094 13 1.2 652,706 31,375 5.02005 51,461 1,720 3.5 1,127 34 3.1 696,107 43,402 6.62006 53,217 1,756 3.4 1,096 -32 -2.8 699,613 3,505 0.52007 55,030 1,813 3.4 1,088 -8 -0.7 718,179 18,566 2.72008 56,872 1,842 3.3 1,090 3 0.2 743,957 25,778 3.62009 58,744 1,872 3.3 1,095 5 0.5 771,986 28,029 3.82010 60,633 1,889 3.2 1,099 4 0.4 799,635 27,649 3.62011 62,541 1,908 3.1 1,099 0 0.0 824,566 24,931 3.12012 64,471 1,930 3.1 1,104 5 0.4 853,761 29,195 3.52013 66,407 1,936 3.0 1,109 5 0.5 883,475 29,714 3.52014 68,346 1,939 2.9 1,111 3 0.3 911,590 28,115 3.22015 70,295 1,949 2.9 1,114 2 0.2 939,605 28,015 3.12016 72,235 1,940 2.8 1,118 4 0.3 968,707 29,102 3.12017 74,191 1,956 2.7 1,120 2 0.2 996,923 28,216 2.92018 76,138 1,947 2.6 1,124 4 0.4 1,027,023 30,100 3.02019 78,084 1,946 2.6 1,129 5 0.5 1,058,092 31,068 3.02020 80,055 1,971 2.5 1,138 8 0.8 1,092,950 34,859 3.32021 82,009 1,954 2.4 1,146 8 0.7 1,127,378 34,427 3.12022 83,967 1,958 2.4 1,153 7 0.6 1,161,671 34,293 3.02023 85,925 1,958 2.3 1,160 7 0.6 1,195,772 34,101 2.92024 87,890 1,965 2.3 1,169 9 0.8 1,232,572 36,800 3.12025 89,826 1,936 2.2 1,174 6 0.5 1,265,779 33,207 2.7
Owen EC2006 Load Forecast
Residential Summary
Table 1-6
37
Figure 1-8Annual Change in Residential Customers
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Nu
mb
er
of
Cu
sto
me
rs
38
Blank PageBlank Page
39
Figure 1-9Owen Electric
Residential MWh Usage, History and Forecast
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
MW
h
Other Usage Heating, Cooling and Water Heating Usage
40
Methodology and Results (continued)Public Building Forecast
Public building sales are projected using two equations, a customer equation and an energy equation. Both are determined through regression analysis and utilize inputs relating to the economy, electric price, and the residential customer forecast. Projections are reported in Table 1-7.
41
Table 1-7
Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales
AnnualAverage
AnnualChange
%Change
MonthlyAverage(kWh)
AnnualChange(kWh)
%Change
Total(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
1990 153 1,998 3,6691991 157 4 2.6 2,185 186 9.3 4,116 447 12.21992 167 10 6.4 2,991 806 36.9 5,994 1,878 45.61993 178 11 6.6 3,502 511 17.1 7,480 1,486 24.81994 185 7 3.9 3,601 99 2.8 7,995 515 6.91995 193 8 4.3 3,738 136 3.8 8,656 661 8.31996 197 4 2.1 3,898 161 4.3 9,215 559 6.51997 204 7 3.6 3,670 -228 -5.8 8,985 -230 -2.51998 213 9 4.4 3,691 21 0.6 9,435 450 5.01999 213 0 0.0 3,706 14 0.4 9,472 37 0.42000 217 4 1.9 3,698 -8 -0.2 9,630 158 1.72001 224 7 3.2 3,674 -25 -0.7 9,875 245 2.52002 230 6 2.7 3,986 313 8.5 11,002 1,128 11.42003 231 1 0.4 4,287 301 7.5 11,883 881 8.02004 227 -4 -1.7 4,560 273 6.4 12,421 538 4.52005 226 -1 -0.4 4,398 -162 -3.5 11,928 -493 -4.02006 227 1 0.4 4,391 -7 -0.2 11,960 33 0.32007 227 0 0.0 4,503 112 2.6 12,266 305 2.62008 228 1 0.4 4,611 109 2.4 12,617 351 2.92009 228 0 0.0 4,758 147 3.2 13,018 401 3.22010 228 0 0.0 4,886 128 2.7 13,369 351 2.72011 228 0 0.0 5,000 113 2.3 13,679 310 2.32012 229 1 0.4 5,106 106 2.1 14,031 352 2.62013 229 0 0.0 5,246 140 2.7 14,415 384 2.72014 229 0 0.0 5,372 127 2.4 14,763 348 2.42015 229 0 0.0 5,492 120 2.2 15,091 328 2.22016 229 0 0.0 5,613 122 2.2 15,426 334 2.22017 229 0 0.0 5,740 126 2.3 15,773 347 2.32018 230 1 0.4 5,845 105 1.8 16,132 359 2.32019 230 0 0.0 5,977 132 2.3 16,496 365 2.32020 230 0 0.0 6,093 116 1.9 16,816 320 1.92021 230 0 0.0 6,220 127 2.1 17,166 350 2.12022 230 0 0.0 6,341 122 2.0 17,502 336 2.02023 230 0 0.0 6,437 96 1.5 17,766 264 1.52024 230 0 0.0 6,532 95 1.5 18,029 263 1.52025 230 0 0.0 6,626 93 1.4 18,287 257 1.4
Owen EC2006 Load Forecast
Public Buildings Summary
42
Methodology and Results (continued)Small Commercial Forecast
Small commercial sales are projected using two equations, a customer equation and a small commercial sales equation. Both are determined through regression analysis and utilize inputs relating to the economy, electric price, and the residential customer forecast. Small commercial projections are reported in Table 1-8.
43
Table 1-8
Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales
AnnualAverage
AnnualChange
%Change
AnnualAverage(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
Total(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
1990 654 71 46,2351991 745 91 13.9 82 12 16.5 61,339 15,104 32.71992 820 75 10.1 75 -7 -8.6 61,727 389 0.61993 879 59 7.2 75 0 -0.1 66,082 4,355 7.11994 939 60 6.8 77 2 2.5 72,341 6,259 9.51995 1,007 68 7.2 92 15 20.0 93,085 20,744 28.71996 1,087 80 7.9 85 -7 -7.5 92,937 -148 -0.21997 1,165 78 7.2 88 2 2.9 102,512 9,575 10.31998 1,264 99 8.5 90 2 2.2 113,645 11,133 10.91999 1,373 109 8.6 92 2 1.8 125,681 12,036 10.62000 1,510 137 10.0 93 1 1.5 140,359 14,678 11.72001 1,625 115 7.6 87 -6 -6.3 141,591 1,232 0.92002 1,690 65 4.0 82 -5 -6.1 138,298 -3,293 -2.32003 1,753 63 3.7 86 4 5.2 150,927 12,629 9.12004 1,791 38 2.2 90 4 4.5 161,106 10,180 6.72005 1,853 62 3.5 96 6 6.8 178,068 16,962 10.52006 1,932 79 4.3 95 -1 -1.5 182,917 4,849 2.72007 2,008 76 3.9 95 0 0.1 190,383 7,466 4.12008 2,085 77 3.8 95 0 0.1 197,797 7,415 3.92009 2,162 77 3.7 95 0 0.0 205,188 7,391 3.72010 2,238 76 3.5 95 0 0.0 212,458 7,269 3.52011 2,312 74 3.3 95 0 0.0 219,504 7,046 3.32012 2,384 72 3.1 95 0 0.0 226,336 6,833 3.12013 2,456 72 3.0 95 0 0.0 233,191 6,855 3.02014 2,529 73 3.0 95 0 0.0 240,133 6,942 3.02015 2,602 73 2.9 95 0 0.0 247,126 6,993 2.92016 2,676 74 2.8 95 0 0.0 254,153 7,027 2.82017 2,749 73 2.7 95 0 0.0 261,177 7,023 2.82018 2,824 75 2.7 95 0 0.0 268,261 7,084 2.72019 2,898 74 2.6 95 0 0.0 275,393 7,132 2.72020 2,973 75 2.6 95 0 0.0 282,521 7,128 2.62021 3,048 75 2.5 95 0 0.0 289,670 7,149 2.52022 3,123 75 2.5 95 0 0.0 296,830 7,161 2.52023 3,197 74 2.4 95 0 0.0 303,940 7,110 2.42024 3,272 75 2.3 95 0 0.0 311,040 7,100 2.32025 3,346 74 2.3 95 0 0.0 318,126 7,086 2.3
Owen EC2006 Load Forecast
Small Commercial Summary
44
Methodology and Results (continued)Large Commercial Forecast
Large commercial customers are those with loads 1 MW or greater. Owen Electric currently has 36 customers reported in this class and is projected to increase to 42 customers by 2025. Large commercial results are reported in Table 1-9.
45
Table 1-9
Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales
AnnualAverage
AnnualChange
%Change
Annual Average(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
Total(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
1990 2 10,061 20,1231991 2 0 0.0 12,404 2,343 23.3 24,809 4,686 23.31992 2 0 0.0 12,096 -308 -2.5 24,192 -617 -2.51993 2 0 0.0 12,268 172 1.4 24,535 343 1.41994 4 2 100.0 6,301 -5,967 -48.6 25,204 669 2.71995 6 2 50.0 4,885 -1,416 -22.5 29,310 4,106 16.31996 8 2 33.3 4,450 -435 -8.9 35,603 6,293 21.51997 10 2 25.0 3,384 -1,067 -24.0 33,835 -1,768 -5.01998 12 2 20.0 2,692 -691 -20.4 32,309 -1,527 -4.51999 17 5 41.7 2,543 -149 -5.5 43,239 10,930 33.82000 20 3 17.6 3,792 1,248 49.1 75,839 32,600 75.42001 23 3 15.0 4,239 447 11.8 97,497 21,658 28.62002 21 -2 -8.7 5,405 1,166 27.5 113,503 16,006 16.42003 28 7 33.3 4,257 -1,148 -21.2 119,196 5,693 5.02004 30 2 7.1 4,623 366 8.6 138,685 19,489 16.42005 36 6 20.0 4,807 184 4.0 173,061 34,376 24.82006 36 0 0.0 5,575 768 16.0 200,701 27,641 16.02007 37 1 2.8 5,430 -145 -2.6 200,900 199 0.12008 38 1 2.7 5,474 44 0.8 208,015 7,114 3.52009 38 0 0.0 5,522 48 0.9 209,845 1,831 0.92010 38 0 0.0 5,604 82 1.5 212,950 3,105 1.52011 39 1 2.6 5,766 162 2.9 224,867 11,916 5.62012 39 0 0.0 5,866 100 1.7 228,760 3,893 1.72013 39 0 0.0 5,968 102 1.7 232,754 3,995 1.72014 39 0 0.0 6,072 103 1.7 236,789 4,035 1.72015 39 0 0.0 6,175 104 1.7 240,843 4,053 1.72016 39 0 0.0 6,280 104 1.7 244,904 4,061 1.72017 40 1 2.6 6,431 151 2.4 257,233 12,329 5.02018 40 0 0.0 6,533 102 1.6 261,301 4,067 1.62019 40 0 0.0 6,634 102 1.6 265,369 4,068 1.62020 41 1 2.5 6,773 139 2.1 277,703 12,334 4.62021 41 0 0.0 6,873 99 1.5 281,774 4,071 1.52022 41 0 0.0 6,972 99 1.4 285,844 4,069 1.42023 41 0 0.0 7,071 99 1.4 289,912 4,068 1.42024 41 0 0.0 7,170 99 1.4 293,979 4,068 1.42025 42 1 2.4 7,293 123 1.7 306,310 12,331 4.2
Owen EC2006 Load Forecast
Large Commercial Summary
46
Methodology and Results (continued)Other Forecast
Owen Electric serves street light accounts which are classified in the ‘Other’ category. This class is modeled separately. Results are reported in Table 1-10.
47
Table 1-10
Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales
AnnualAverage
AnnualChange
%Change
MonthlyAverage(kWh)
AnnualChange(kWh)
%Change
Total(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
1990 17 870 1771991 17 0 0.0 843 -27 -3.1 172 -6 -3.11992 18 1 5.9 796 -46 -5.5 172 0 0.11993 17 -1 -5.6 773 -24 -3.0 158 -14 -8.41994 17 0 0.0 745 -28 -3.6 152 -6 -3.61995 18 1 5.9 704 -41 -5.6 152 0 0.01996 18 0 0.0 685 -18 -2.6 148 -4 -2.61997 18 0 0.0 694 9 1.3 150 2 1.31998 19 1 5.6 615 -79 -11.4 140 -10 -6.51999 20 1 5.3 639 24 4.0 153 13 9.52000 19 -1 -5.0 1,538 899 140.5 351 197 128.52001 19 0 0.0 1,809 272 17.7 413 62 17.72002 20 1 5.3 2,331 521 28.8 559 147 35.62003 21 1 5.0 2,639 308 13.2 665 105 18.92004 21 0 0.0 2,263 -375 -14.2 570 -95 -14.22005 21 0 0.0 2,072 -191 -8.5 522 -48 -8.52006 20 -1 -4.8 2,183 110 5.3 524 2 0.32007 20 0 0.0 2,222 39 1.8 533 9 1.82008 21 1 5.0 2,148 -73 -3.3 541 8 1.52009 21 0 0.0 2,181 32 1.5 550 8 1.52010 21 0 0.0 2,213 32 1.5 558 8 1.52011 21 0 0.0 2,245 32 1.4 566 8 1.42012 21 0 0.0 2,277 32 1.4 574 8 1.42013 21 0 0.0 2,309 32 1.4 582 8 1.42014 21 0 0.0 2,341 32 1.4 590 8 1.42015 21 0 0.0 2,373 32 1.4 598 8 1.42016 21 0 0.0 2,405 32 1.3 606 8 1.32017 22 1 4.8 2,326 -79 -3.3 614 8 1.32018 22 0 0.0 2,356 31 1.3 622 8 1.32019 22 0 0.0 2,387 31 1.3 630 8 1.32020 22 0 0.0 2,417 31 1.3 638 8 1.32021 22 0 0.0 2,448 31 1.3 646 8 1.32022 22 0 0.0 2,478 31 1.2 654 8 1.22023 22 0 0.0 2,509 31 1.2 662 8 1.22024 22 0 0.0 2,539 31 1.2 670 8 1.22025 22 0 0.0 2,570 31 1.2 678 8 1.2
Owen EC2006 Load Forecast
Other Summary
48
Blank PageBlank Page
49
Methodology and Results (continued)Peak Day Weather Scenarios
Extreme temperatures can dramatically influence Owen Electric’s peak demands. Table 1-11 and Figure 1-10 reports the impact of extreme weather on system demands.
50
Table 1-11
Winter Peak Day Minimum Temperatures Summer Peak Day Maximum Temperatures
Mild Normal Extreme Normal Extreme
Degrees 10 -6 -15 -21 -30 Degrees 95 98 100 103
Probability 99% 50% 20% 10% 3% Probability 50% 20% 10% 3%
Occurs Once Every 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years
Noncoincident Winter Peak Demand - MW Noncoincident Summer Peak Demand - MW
Season Mild Normal Extreme Year Normal Extreme
2006 254 278 295 320
2006 - 07 227 259 278 290 308 2007 260 285 302 328
2007 - 08 234 268 287 300 319 2008 268 294 312 339
2008 - 09 243 278 297 310 330 2009 276 303 322 349
2009 - 10 251 287 307 321 341 2010 284 312 332 360
2010 - 11 260 297 319 333 354 2011 294 323 343 372
2011 - 12 267 306 328 342 364 2012 301 331 352 382
2012 - 13 276 316 339 354 377 2013 310 341 362 394
2013 - 14 284 326 349 365 389 2014 319 350 372 405
2014 - 15 291 335 359 376 400 2015 326 359 382 415
2015- 16 299 343 369 386 411 2016 334 368 391 425
2016 - 17 309 356 382 399 425 2017 345 380 404 439
2017 - 18 318 366 392 410 437 2018 354 390 414 450
2018 - 19 326 376 403 422 450 2019 363 399 425 462
2019-2020 336 387 416 435 464 2020 373 411 437 475
2020-2021 347 399 429 448 478 2021 383 422 449 488
2021-2022 356 410 440 461 491 2022 393 433 460 500
2022-2023 365 421 452 473 504 2023 402 443 471 512
2023-2024 373 430 463 484 517 2024 411 453 481 524
2024-2025 385 444 477 499 533 2025 423 466 495 539
Owen ElectricPeak Day Weather Scenarios
51
Figure 1-10
Owen Electric - Normal Peaks And T&D Planning Peaks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
Pe
ak
MW
Actual Winter Normal Winter 10% Case - Winter Actual Summer Normal Summer 10% Case - Summer
52
RUS Form 341
53
Form 341Form 341