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Overview of NCES and U.S. Role in Interna7onal Assessments Presenta(on for “Thinking Beyond Borders: The Future of Student Assessment” Peggy G. Carr, Ph.D., Ac7ng Commissioner, Na7onal Center for Educa7on Sta7s7cs (NCES) November 17, 2017
In the news: U.S. Headlines
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In the news: Interna3onal Headlines
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Five things we’ve learned
1. American students tend to struggle more in mathema3cs than in reading or science.
6 * Rank is the number of educa3on systems with significantly higher average scores than the United States +1. U.S. also performed not measurably different from countries (ranging from 1 to 14). Rankings based on most recent data from PIRLS (grade 4 reading), TIMSS (grades 4 & 8 math and science), PISA (age 15 reading, math, and science), and PIAAC (adults).
U.S. rankings less favorable in mathema3cs than other subjects
(Total Educa4on Systems)
Grade 4 (54)
Grade 8 (43)
Age 15 (73)
Adults (22)
Reading 6 — 16 8
Science 8 8 20 —
Math 11 9 38 17
2. We see stronger performance from our youngest students.
8
U.S. rankings more favorable for younger students
* Rank is the number of educa3on systems with significantly higher average scores than the United States +1. U.S. also performed not measurably different from countries (ranging from 1 to 14). Rankings based on most recent data from PIRLS (grade 4 reading), TIMSS (grades 4 & 8 math and science), PISA (age 15 reading, math, and science), and PIAAC (adults).
(Total Educa4on Systems)
Grade 4 (54)
Grade 8 (43)
Age 15 (73)
Adults (22)
Reading 6 — 16 8
Science 8 8 20 —
Math 11 9 38 17
3. While other countries improve, the U.S. is losing ground.
30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%
Iran, Islamic Republic of New Zealand Norway (4)
Ontario-‐CAN Australia Slovenia Cyprus
UNITED STATES Portugal
England-‐GBR Ireland Japan
Korea, Republic of Hong Kong-‐CHN
Singapore
U.S. 4th grade TIMSS mathema3cs scores have increased, but not to the same extent as some of our compe3tors
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1995 2015
0 1000 350 400 450 500 550 600 650
Average Score NOTE: Countries participating in TIMSS in 1995 and 2015 and with significant increase in average score shown.
+21
+58
+99
U.S. 15-‐year-‐olds’ performance in mathema3cs declining over 3me
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PISA 2015 Mathema4cs
Results
Average score lower than in 2012
U.S. Ranking 35 2015
28 2012
*Rankings are based on the 60 educa3on systems that par3cipated in both PISA 2012 and PISA 2015 and are determined by calcula3ng the highest possible rank (number of educa3on systems performing higher plus one).
7 that were now 2 that were now
4. Our top performing states are among the best educa3on systems in the world, but our lowest performing states struggle to be compe33ve globally.
Massachuse_s among the top educa3on systems in the world
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In 2011, scores on grade 8 TIMSS ranged from 466 in Alabama to 561 in Massachuse_s.
NCES.ED.GOV
Massachuse_s’s peer: • Japan
(MA only scored lower than Republic of Korea, Singapore, Chinese Taipei, and Hong Kong)
Alabama’s peers: • Ukraine • Dubai and the United
Arab Emirates • Norway • Armenia • Romania • Turkey
5. Millennials, the most highly educated genera3on in U.S. history, have generally low skills compared with interna3onal peers.
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U.S. adults ages 16-‐65 average score on PIAAC 2012 Literacy not different from OECD
15
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310 500
Adults’ (16-‐65) average score
Average Score
Educa4on System
270 273
15 15 NCES.ED.GOV
0
16
U.S. Millennials lower than interna3onal average in Literacy
16
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
Average Score
274
282
16
Millennials’ average score
Educa4on System 16 NCES.ED.GOV
0
500
17
U.S. adults ages 16-‐65 average score on PIAAC 2012 Problem Solving lower than interna3onal average
17
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
Average Score
Educa4on System
277 283
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Adults’ (16-‐65) average score
0
500
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U.S. Millennials rank near bo_om on PIAAC 2012 Problem Solving
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240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310 Millennials’ average score
Average Score
Educa4on System
284
295
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0
500
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U.S. adults ages 16-‐65 average score lower than interna3onal average on PIAAC 2012 Numeracy
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240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
Adults’ (16-‐65) average score
Average Score
Educa4on System
253
269
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0
500
20
U.S. Millennials 3ed for the lowest average score on PIAAC Numeracy 2012
20
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
Millennials’ average score
Average Score
Educa4on System
255
276
20 20 NCES.ED.GOV
0
500
NCES’s role in interna7onal assessments
Interna3onal Assessments Process
22
Design
Assessments Administered
Data Analyzed and Validated
Data Reported 22 NCES.ED.GOV
Reps from par4cipa4ng countries (NCES)
Interna4onal Organizer (IEA/OECD)
Countries’ Sta4s4cal Agencies (NCES)
Interna4onal Organizer (IEA/OECD) Countries’
Sta4s4cal Agencies (NCES)
Interna4onal Organizer (IEA/OECD)
NCES administered assessments
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Interna3onal Assessments
State Assessments
The U.S. system of assessments
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Interna3onal Assessments
State Assessments
NAEP DNA in interna3onal assessments
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• PISA, TIMSS, etc. based on “long test, short booklet” pioneered by NAEP in early 80s – Group, not individual, scores – NAEP was first large-‐scale applica3on of IRT—now used in most large-‐scale assessments
• NAEP and interna3onal assessments share experts, best prac3ces
Upcoming interna7onal assessment results
Upcoming interna3onal assessment results
• December 5, 2017 • 4th-‐ grade reading assessment
• First ePIRLS administra3on – Online informa3onal reading – Computer-‐based extension of PIRLS
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Upcoming interna3onal assessment results
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2017
IELS
2018 2019 2020
• Literacy • Numeracy • Social Skills • Execu7ve Func7on
Early Childhood
Elementary
Middle School
High School
Adults
• Reading • Mathema7cs
• Science • Online Reading
• Mathema7cs
• Science • Teachers and teaching
• Computer and informa7on literacy
• Reading • Mathema7cs
• Science • Financial literacy • Collabora7ve problem solving
• Advanced mathema7cs and physics
• Literacy • Numeracy
• Problem Solving
• Outcomes in employment, income, educa7on, health
IELS PIRLS, TIMSS, NAEP
TIMSS, ICILS, NAEP
PISA, TIMSS, NAEP
PIAAC
NCES Conducted Assessments Across the Lifespan
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Interna3onal Assessments Process
31
Design
Reps from par3cipa3ng countries
Assessments Administered
Data Analyzed and Validated
Data Reported 31 NCES.ED.GOV
Five things we’ve learned
NCES’s role in interna3onal assessments
Upcoming interna3onal assessment results
• Origins: 1867 and establishment of the first federal office of educa3on
• NCES reports on the condi3on and progress of educa3on in the United States
• Interna3onal assessments are conducted in U.S. by NCES
NCES.ED.GOV 35
NCES BACKGROUND
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• Literacy • Numeracy • Social Skills • Execu(ve Func(on
Early Childhood
Elementary
Middle School
High School
Adults
• Reading • Mathema7cs
• Science • Online Reading
• Mathema7cs
• Science • Teachers and teaching
• Computer and informa(on literacy
• Reading • Mathema7cs
• Science • Financial literacy • Collabora(ve problem solving
• Advanced mathema7cs and physics
• Literacy • Numeracy
• Problem Solving
• Outcomes in employment, income, educa7on, health
NCES Interna3onal Studies Across the Lifespan
36 NCES.ED.GOV
• Literacy • Numeracy • Social Skills • Execu(ve Func(on
Early Childhood
Elementary
Middle School
High School
Adults
• Reading • Mathema7cs
• Science • Online Reading
• Mathema7cs
• Science • Teachers and teaching
• Computer and informa(on literacy
• Reading • Mathema7cs
• Science • Financial literacy • Collabora(ve problem solving
• Advanced mathema7cs and physics
• Literacy • Numeracy
• Problem Solving
• Outcomes in employment, income, educa7on, health
IELS PIRLS, TIMSS TIMSS, ICILS PISA, TIMSS PIAAC
NCES Interna3onal Studies Across the Lifespan
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NAEP (Na4onal Assessment)
U.S. gaps by parental educa3on, reported income, health, PIAAC
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Interna3onal partners
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Interna4onal Associa4on for the Evalua4on of Educa4onal
Achievement (IEA) • Trends in Interna3onal
Mathema3cs and Science Study (TIMSS)
• Progress in Interna3onal Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS)
• Interna3onal Computer and Informa3on Literacy Study (ICILS)
Organiza4on for Economic Coopera4on and Development
(OECD) • Program for Interna3onal Student
Assessment (PISA) • Program for the Interna3onal
Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC)
• Teacher and Learning Interna3onal Study (TALIS)
• Interna3onal Early Learning and Child Wellbeing Study (IELS)
NCES.ED.GOV
Office of the Commissioner
Peggy Carr (Acting) Staff (2)
Assessment Division
Peggy Carr (34)
National Assessment
Holly Spurlock
International Assessment
PIAAC
PISA
TIMSS
TALIS
PIRLS
Administrative & Support Services
Brad Thayer
Reporting & Dissemination Dan McGrath
Sample Surveys Division
Chris Chapman (19)
Longitudinal Surveys
Chris Chapman (Acting)
Early Childhood
High School
Middle Grades
Postsecondary (NPSAS, B&B &
BPS)
Cross-Sectional Surveys
Andrew Zukerberg
NHES
FRSS/PEQIS
NTPS/SASS
Private School Survey
School Crime (SCS,
SSOCS)
School Climate
Administrative Data Division Ross Santy (34)
State Longitudinal Data Systems Nancy Sharkey
Postsecondary (IPEDS)
Richard Reeves
Elementary & Secondary
Challis Breithaupt
Common Core of Data
EDFacts
Teacher Compensation
Survey
School District Demographics
System Tai Phan
Statistical Standards & Data
Confidentiality Marilyn Seastrom (12)
Annual Reports & Information
Tom Snyder (9)
NCES Organiza7on Chart