overview on the current state of the renewable energy sector
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA – 2010
Overview on the current state of the renewable
energy sector
CPI-ICCG International Workshop “The Challenge of Financing Low-Carbon Growth”
Venezia, Italy, 15-16 April 2010
Dr. Paolo FranklHead, Renewable Energy Division
International Energy Agency
Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
Capa
city (
MW)
PVCSPGeothermalBiomassWind
* Preliminary Sources: EIA; American Wind Energy Association; Geothermal Energy Association; GTM Research
U.S. Renewable ElectricityTotal Installed Capacity 2000-2009
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Recent trends in selected countriesNon-Hydro Renewable Electricity
[Source: IEA 2009Data: IEA Deploying Renewables and Renewables Information, 2009 ]
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Wind installed capacity
2009: +12 GW China+10 GW USLargest share newinstallations in EU
Source: IEA Wind Roadmap, 2009
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PV installed capacity2009 estimate: +7 GW worldwide
Source: IEA PV Roadmap, May 2010
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Concentrating Solar Power
Source: CSP Essential, 2009
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Comparative assessment of effectiveness and efficiency of renewables support policies in OECDcountries plus Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS)
Chosen policy effectiveness indicator on a yearly basis:
Global Renewable Energy Markets and Policies Programme (GREMPP)
Incremental RE generation in a given year
Remaining additional realisable potential
(by 2020)
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Effectiveness & EfficiencyWind On-shore 2005 (OECD & BRICS)
Source: IEA & Fh-ISI, 2008
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0,00 2,00 4,00 6,00 8,00 10,00 12,00 14,00 16,00 18,00
Annualised renumeration in [US cent / kWh]
Effe
ctiv
enes
s in
dica
tor 2
004/
2005
EU Countries Non EU OECD BRICS EU Countries Non EU OECD BRICS
X
Y
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Effectiveness & EfficiencyWind On-shore 2005 (OECD & BRICS)
Source: IEA & Fh-ISI, 2008
DEUESP
IRL
PRT
NLD
AUT
LUX
JPNKOR
ITAGBRINDBEL
USA AUSSWE
NZL
POLFRANOR
CHNBRA FINTURRUS ZAF MEX
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00
Effe
ctiv
enes
s in
dica
tor 2
004/
2005
Annualised remuneration in [US cent / kWh]
OECD - EU Other OECD BRICS
Long-term predictable incentives
(FIT or FIP)+
Appropriate framework
Higher risk (TGC)+
Non-economic barriers
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1. Remove non-economic barriers to improve market functioning
2. Establish predictable support framework -to attract investments
3. Set up transitional incentives decreasing over time – to foster and monitor technological innovation and move towards market competitiveness
4. Ensure specific support in function of technology maturity to exploit potential of large RET range
5. With increasing mass-scale RET penetration impact on overall energy system must be taken into account
Continuity
Certainty
Key Principles for Effective Renewable Energy Policies
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10An integrated policy approach
Niche markets Mass market
Low cost‐gap(e.g. wind onshore)
High cost‐gap(e.g. PV)
Mature tech(e.g. hydro)
Prototype & demo stage(e.g. 2nd gen biofuels)
Time
Market Deploym
ent
Development
1. Development
RD&D financing, capital cost support, investment tax credits, rebates,loan guarantees
4. Technology‐neutral competition
TGC, Carbon trading (e.g. EU ETS)
[Source: Adapted from IEA Deploying Renewables, 2008 ]
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GREMPP Phase Two: 2009-2010
ASEAN
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America
MENA
Update of Deploying Renewables 2008 on OECD + BRICS Extension of geographical scope and analysis To be published by the end of 2010
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Positive outlook for renewable energy Policies expanding in many countries Impact of economic stimulus programmes
Regional and country differences Different risks, including policy risk
Large-scale deployment of RE will require Implementation of effective and cost-
efficient support policies in an increasing number of countries
Invest in infrastructure and smart grids to address issue of integration
Ensure sustained support to RD&D
Conclusions
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