overview on renewable energy projects, feed in regulations...

01.03.2013 © Gaines Consulting, 2013 1

Dr. Jeremy Gaines Coordinator Nigerian-German Energy Partnership

Overview on Renewable Energy Projects, Feed in Regulations and Solar Energy in Nigeria


Parameters: Africa is a continent of the future!

• The UN expects that 41 percent of global youth will be located in Africa by the end of the 21st century.

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

Population by world region in (thousands)

Africa

China

Europe

India

Japan

North America

South America

Southeast Asia

Source: UN DESA


By 2040 almost every fourth global worker will come from Africa. By the end of the century nearly every second.

17%

23%

11%

23%

11%

2% 6%

7%

2020

45%

10% 7%

18%

8% 1%

6% 5%

2100

Population between 15 and 65 years By world region

25%

18%

9%

24%

11%

1% 5%

7%

2040

Africa China Europe India Southeast Asia Japan North America South America

Source: UN DESA


2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Medium 158 180 204 230 258

High 158 181 208 237 269

Low 158 178 200 222 246

Constant fertility 158 181 207 238 275

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

M

i

l

l

i

o

n

s

Demographic development in Nigeria

Nigeria is spearheading this trend

Source: UN DESA

3/1/2013 © Gaines Consulting, 2013 5

31 28 26 16 18

37 46

35 33 36 46 44

59 68 88

112

145 166

207

169

229 244

273 293

312 335

360

388

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

GDP in Nigeria (bn US$)

The economy is expected to grow constantly at 6.5-8 percent

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012


In 2011, US$ 10.5 billion were spent on power from diesel generators in Nigeria.


At the same time, the government spent more than US$ 8 bn on subsidizing petrol at the pump


In 2012 Nigerians produced 6,000 MW of electricity using diesel generators. Far more than what the power stations across the country generate, says Professor Rahaman Bello, Vice Chancellor, University of Lagos.


The Jonathan-lead administration has begun to implement drastic reforms in the power sector.


• In August 2010 the Roadmap for Power Sector Reform was presented to the public.

Milestones


In 2011 …. • the NERC (Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission) was restored. • Bulk trader, NELMCO (Nigeria Electricity Liability Management

Limited ) and NAPTIN (National Power Training Institute of Nigeria ) are founded.

2012 …. • The fuel subsidy is halved. • State-owned Generation and Distribution Companies are being

privatized. • A management contract for the TCN (Transmission Company of

Nigeria) is awarded to the Canadian company Manitoba.


2013/2014 could, perhaps, see …

• the fuel subsidy completely discarded • the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) ratified • the countrywide power generation capacity rise to 6,000

MW • the completion of the privatization process in the power

sector


Why Renewables?


1. Because there is enormous potential!


2. Because while Nigeria has huge oil and gas reserves…


… it lacks the (very costly) infrastructure to use them internally.

• Fossil fuels are not reaching the North. • Construction periods for pipelines are long and need major investments.


3. Because Nigeria's power grid is not adequately developed. Decentralized solutions can bring progress faster and more effectively.


4. Because it is necessary to fight the causes and reduce the effects of global warming.

• The Sahara desert is moving southwards into northern Nigeria at a speed calculated at 6 kilometers annually.


5. Because power brings progress.


The conditions for wind power in Nigeria are favourable


Offshore wind generation has some technical challenges, but low water offshore favours construction


The natural conditions for solar energy are great especially in the northern part of the country


Solar energy is efficient: A 20 MW solar plant in Yola substitutes around 7,789,465 liters of diesel fuel per year.


Assumption: A generator (20 MWh) running 12 hours a day needs around 20,688 liters of diesel fuel. A truck transports 20,000 liters of diesel from Warri to Yola every day. The return trip is 2,100 kilometers. The truck uses 630 liters diesel daily for the trip (30 liters diesel consumption per 100 kilometers).


There are plenty of opportunities for small to large hydro power projects in the country


The Governments SURE Programme lists a number of small, medium and large hydro power projects.


Thousands of jobs are created

Source: Federal Ministry of Water Resources


The Challawa George Dam stores 904 million m3 of water


The Dadin Kowa Damm supplies the region around Gombe with water … and could generate electricity as well.


The Kiri Dam in Adamawa state could generate up to 30 MW


Turning waste into power is a win-win solution for Megacities like Lagos


The waste-to-energy plant in Frankfurt provides electricity for more than 30,000 households.

The Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO) guarantees a continuous rise in electricity generation prices in the coming years. Backed by Partial Risk Guarantees provided from the World Bank.



Feed-in tariffs in Germany successfully incentivized the development of renewable technologies. MYTO II is destined to do the same, reducing external costs, and increasing security of energy supplies.

Feed-in Tariffs (Euro cent/kwh) Germany 2013 Nigeria MYTO 2013 Nigeria MYTO 2016

Solar 11.27 (- 2.2% monthly degression) 35.42 44.55 Offshore wind 15 - -

Onshore wind 8.93 12.81 16.16

Hydropower small 5.5 (10.31 for new plant) 12.29 15.47

Hydropower large 5.5 (10.31 for new plant) 2.56 3.22 Biomass 11 14.31 18.05

Landfill gas 5.89 - -


• Construction of a 20 MW solar-PV power plant in Yola, Adamawa State • Construction of 30 MW solar-PV power plants Kaduna/Katsina/Sokoto – SPVs now in place, feasibility process underway • Construction of a 60 MW solar-PV-plant in Kano • Heads of Agreements being negotiated for up to 100 MW solar-PV utility in Nassarawa • MoU with Benue, Ekiti, Gombe • MoU with Jigawa State pending • Each project will have a strong CSR component and a training/knowledge transfer element • Exchange programme initiated between Modibbo Adama University of Technology and Ingolstadt University of Applied Science. Discussions with University of Sokoto on support for its solar energy department.

Nigeria-German partnered renewable energy projects

overview on renewable energy projects, feed in regulations...

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