overview on ccs in developing countries
DESCRIPTION
Presentation by Paul Zakkour, Director of Carbon Counts at Institute side event "Making sense of CCS in the UNFCCC" in Doha at COP 18 talks.TRANSCRIPT
Paul Zakkour Carbon Counts
GCCSI Side Event, COP18, Doha – 28th November 2012
CCS in developing countries
Overview
• Where are we today?
– CCS drivers & needs
– CCS interest & commitments
– Supporting CCS through climate finance
• What is the future role for the UN?
– Centralised view
– Decentralised view
2
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Abatement cost
$/tCO2 avoided
Abatement potential
MtCO2 per year
Other
developing
Asia
Latin America
China
India
Other
Middle East
Africa
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Abatement cost
$/tCO2 avoided
Abatement potential
MtCO2 per year
Iron & Steel
Coal power
Chemicals
Gas processing
Gas power
Cement
CCS potential in developing countries
MACCs from: Zakkour, P. D, Cook, G., Carter, A., Streck, C. and Chagas, T. (2011) Assessment of climate finance sources to accelerate carbon capture and storage deployment in developing countries. A report by Carbon Counts and Climate Focus for the World Bank. 16th June 2011. Washington D.C. Data based on IEA Technology Roadmap for CCS. © OECD/International Energy Agency, 2009. Note: Includes cost of capture, transport and storage
Non Annex I country CCS MACC - 2020
• IEA CCS Roadmap: 116 MtCO2 avoided by 2020
• 80 MtCO2 abatement <$50/tCO2
Non Annex I country CCS MACC - 2020
Drivers
Climate Change
Energy Security
New coal power
New large scale O&G
Continue coal use
Prolong O&G assets
CCS is “nationally appropriate” for many
4
BRAZIL (Pre-Salt) Contaminated gas
Difficult oil
SOUTH CHINA SEA Contaminated gas
CHINA Coal-fired power
SOUTH AFRICA (Medupi) Coal-fired power
BOTSWANA (Mmamabula) Coal-fired power
INDIA (UMPPs) Coal-fired power
GULF/EGYPT Enhanced oil recovery
MEXICO (Cantarell) Enhanced oil recovery
ALGERIA Contaminated gas
CCS in NAMA contexts
• South Africa “The development of the CCS technology...is a part of the total solution. This
technology is really welcome, and it is important that we work together moving forward.” - President Jacob Zuma, 2011
South Africa has dedicated CCS Centre, CO2 storage map, and commitment to pilot project by 2016
• Botswana “Under the national emission reduction portfolio, projects and programmes will
include...CCS” - AWGLCA/.../2011/INF.1
• Algeria Build on existing actions “including CCS” - AWGLCA/.../2011/INF.1
• Brazil In the Pre-Salt developments....“Petrobras has decided, for environmental
reasons, it will not vent the naturally produced CO2” - Raul Estrella, Head of E&P, Petrobras
• China & South East Asia ADB providing technical assistance, including CCS Roadmap development
• India Exploring CCU opportunities (e.g. algae)
5
How much support is needed?
6
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Co
st o
f a
ba
tem
en
t (
US$
pe
r tC
O2
av
oid
ed
)
Abatement potential
MtCO2 per year
US$ 1.7 bn
US$ 1.6 bn
US$ 0.9 bn
Carbon market
support only
Additional public
support required
$50/tCO2
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ad
dit
ion
al c
ost
(U
S$
bill
ion
)
Carbon
market
support only
Additional
public
support required
US$ 0.9 bn
US$ 1.7 bn
US$ 1.6 bn
$15/tCO2
$25/tCO2
$50/tCO2
additionalcarbon
market finance
leveraged
lending
grants
credits
credits
credits
US$ 4.2 bn
• Investment need = US$4 bn per year to 2020
• Carbon market US$0.3-1.6 bn/yr
• Further US$5-18 bn need to support investment costs (capex)
• Loan or grant finance will be critical to supporting higher-cost projects in sectors such as power, iron & steel, cement etc.
Should developed countries support CCS?
7
“The world doesn’t have an emissions problem, it has a Chinese coal problem”
Source: Davis, S.J. And Caldeira, K. 2010. Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. Proc. Of Natl. Academy of Sci.
Supporting CCS in fragmented market
8
Source: Responding to Climate Change (RTCC)
Role of UNFCCC institutions (centralised)
9
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
CDM EB CCS WG
• Project Standards • DOE Accreditation • Project Registration • Monitoring • Project Issuance • Project Registry
• Framework (ITL) Host Country DNA
• Host country approval LOA • Project permitting • Regulatory oversight
Tech Mech & CTCN
• Technical assistance • Technical assessments • Capacity building • Institutional design
Scheme X
Scheme Y
Scheme Z
CERs
Role of UNFCCC institutions (decentralised)
10
Country A
Country B
Country C
Country D
CDM EB CCS WG
• Project Guidelines • Verifier Guidelines • Country Registry/Library • Project Registry • Framework (tracker)
• Bilateral agreements/linking rules • Project permitting • Regulatory oversight
Tech Mech & CTCN
• Technical assistance • Technical assessments • Capacity building • Institutional design
Scheme X
Scheme Y
Scheme Z
Host Country DNA
Scheme operator
Recap
1. CCS is nationally appropriate for many developing countries
2. Some countries actively pursuing CCS, and consider part of their NAMA commitments
3. Support from Annex I countries is essential to assist with demonstration of the technology
4. UN can continue to play an active role in mobilising, facilitating and/or regulating CCS within the future global carbon market
11
Thank you
Paul Zakkour Email: [email protected] Web: www.carbon-counts.com
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