overview of xcel energy and sps in new mexico and texas

138
1 Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas Brian Fleming Analyst – Resource Planning Appendix K Page 1 of 138

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Page 1: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

1

Ove

rvie

w o

f Xce

l Ene

rgy

and

SPS

in N

ew M

exic

o an

d Te

xas

Ove

rvie

w o

f Xce

l Ene

rgy

and

SPS

in N

ew M

exic

o an

d Te

xas

Bria

n Fl

emin

gA

naly

st –

Res

ourc

e Pl

anni

ng

Appendix K Page 1 of 138

Page 2: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

2

Ove

rvie

w o

f SPS

So

uthw

este

rn P

ublic

Ser

vice

Com

pany

(SPS

) is

regi

ster

ed in

New

Mex

ico

El

ectr

ic in

vest

or-o

wne

d el

ectr

ic u

tility

ope

ratin

g in

Te

xas

& N

ew M

exic

o

SPS

is a

who

lly-o

wne

d su

bsid

iary

of X

cel E

nerg

y In

c.

SPS

does

bus

ines

s un

der t

he ‘X

cel E

nerg

y’ b

rand

Appendix K Page 2 of 138

Page 3: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

3

Cor

pora

te S

truc

ture

Appendix K Page 3 of 138

Page 4: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

4

Xcel

Ene

rgy

Ope

ratio

ns

XCEL

EN

ERG

YE

lect

ric C

usto

mer

s3.

4 m

illio

nG

as C

usto

mer

s1.

9 m

illio

n

Appendix K Page 4 of 138

Page 5: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

5

SPS

Toda

y

C

usto

mer

s: 3

83,0

00

26

7,00

0 in

Tex

as

116,

000

in N

ew M

exic

o

Empl

oyee

s: 1

,000

C

omm

uniti

es S

erve

d:

80

in T

exas

14

in N

ew M

exic

o

Low

Rat

es

Hig

h R

elia

bilit

y

Appendix K Page 5 of 138

Page 6: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

6

Juris

dict

iona

l Com

posi

tion

SP

S op

erat

es it

s pr

oduc

tion

and

tran

smis

sion

sys

tem

as

an

inte

grat

ed w

hole

and

allo

cate

s co

sts

to a

ll sy

stem

cus

tom

ers

N

ew M

exic

o di

strib

utio

n ac

tiviti

es a

re a

ssig

ned

to N

ew

Mex

ico

SP

S se

rves

in th

ree

cust

omer

juris

dict

ions

:

Texa

s re

tail

–50

.8%

W

hole

sale

–29

.8%

N

ew M

exic

o re

tail

–19

.4%

SP

S is

sub

stan

tially

redu

cing

its

who

lesa

le p

ower

sal

es in

ac

cord

ance

with

the

settl

emen

t in

NM

Cas

e N

o. 1

0-00

074-

UT

Appendix K Page 6 of 138

Page 7: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Pow

er P

lant

s/R

enew

able

Ene

rgy

7

Appendix K Page 7 of 138

Page 8: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

8

SPS

Tran

smis

sion

Sys

tem

Appendix K Page 8 of 138

Page 9: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

9

SPS

Sour

ces

of R

enew

able

Ene

rgy

New

Mex

ico

80

MW

Cap

rock

Win

d –

Qua

y C

o, N

M

120

MW

San

Jua

n M

esa

Win

d –

Cha

ves

Co,

NM

25

0 M

W R

oose

velt

Win

d –

Roo

seve

lt C

o, N

M

50 M

W S

unEd

Sola

r –Le

a C

o &

Edd

y C

o, N

M

140

MW

Nex

tEra

Sola

r Fac

ilitie

s –

Cha

ves

Co,

NM

1.

5 M

W F

ERC

Qua

lifyi

ng F

acili

ty W

ind

Texa

s &

Okl

ahom

a

160

MW

Wild

orad

oW

ind

–O

ldha

m C

o, T

X

160

MW

Spi

nnin

g Sp

ur W

ind

–O

ldha

m C

o, T

X

250

MW

Pal

o D

uro

Win

d –

Han

sfor

d C

o, T

X

200

MW

Mam

mot

h Pl

ains

Win

d –

Dew

ey C

o, O

K

281.

5 M

W F

ERC

Qua

lifyi

ng F

acili

ty W

ind

Tota

l Tex

as &

Okl

ahom

a re

new

able

–1,

051.

5 M

W

Tota

l New

Mex

ico

rene

wab

le –

641.

5 M

W

Appendix K Page 9 of 138

Page 10: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

10

SPS

Land

scap

eSP

S La

ndsc

ape

Ben

nie

Wee

ksM

anag

er –

Res

ourc

e Pl

anni

ng

Appendix K Page 10 of 138

Page 11: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Upd

ates

Sin

ce 2

015

IRP

D

ecre

ased

Loa

d G

row

th R

ate

Lo

ad h

eavi

ly d

epen

dent

on

indu

stria

l act

ivity

whi

ch is

vol

atile

bas

ed o

n

com

mod

ity p

rices

P

rodu

ctio

n Ta

x C

redi

t (“P

TC”)

exte

nded

A

ppro

val o

f sol

ar P

PA

s

C

lean

Pow

er P

lan

has

been

sta

yed

N

o cu

rrent

nee

d fo

r new

com

bust

ion

turb

ine

gene

rato

r in

the

2018

-202

0

timef

ram

e

S

PS

file

d an

upd

ate

to it

IRP

Act

ion

Pla

n in

Mar

ch 2

017.

11

Appendix K Page 11 of 138

Page 12: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

12

SPS

Load

and

Res

ourc

es20

15 IR

P

Cur

rent

SPS

can

activ

ely

man

age

the

vola

tility

if lo

ads

star

t inc

reas

ing

Appendix K Page 12 of 138

Page 13: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

13

SPS

Gen

erat

ion

Flee

t

SPS

Syst

em T

otal

C

apab

ility

–44

85 M

W

Un

itE

mer

gen

cy C

apab

ility

(N

et -

MW

)T

ota

l by

Pla

nt

( MW

)C

unni

ngha

m 1

71C

unni

ngha

m 2

192

263

Har

ringt

on 1

340

Har

ringt

on 2

340

Har

ringt

on 3

351

1031

Jone

s 1

243

Jone

s 2

243

486

Mad

dox

111

211

2N

icho

ls 1

113

Nic

hols

211

1N

icho

ls 3

249

473

Pla

nt X

141

Pla

nt X

290

Pla

nt X

395

Pla

nt X

419

041

6To

lk 1

537

Tolk

253

910

76S

team

Su

bto

tal

3857

Un

itE

mer

gen

cy C

apab

ility

(N

et -

MW

)C

arls

bad

00

Cun

ning

ham

310

6C

unni

ngha

m 4

106

212

Jone

s 3

168

Jone

s 4

170

338

Mad

dox

261

61Q

uay

Co

1717

CT

Su

bto

tal

628

Ste

am U

nit

s

Sim

ple

Cyc

le C

T U

nit

s

Appendix K Page 13 of 138

Page 14: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

14

SPS

Land

scap

e

S

yste

m le

ngth

due

to s

low

er lo

ad g

row

th; r

esou

rce

need

in 2

028

D

eclin

ing

who

lesa

le fi

rm p

ower

sal

es

D

ecre

asin

g oi

l and

gas

load

gro

wth

rate

s un

til w

orld

sup

ply

reba

lanc

es

W

ater

ava

ilabi

lity

and

envi

ronm

enta

l reg

ulat

ions

R

egio

nal H

aze,

CP

P, N

AA

QS

To

lkS

tatio

n ba

se lo

ad g

roun

dwat

er in

put c

onst

rain

t

Appendix K Page 14 of 138

Page 15: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

15

SPS

Land

scap

e (c

ont’d

)

C

oal p

lant

situ

atio

n

All

five

coal

gen

erat

ing

units

do

not h

ave

scru

bber

s

Har

ringt

on h

as N

AA

QS

mon

itor i

nsta

lled

by th

e Te

xas

Com

mis

sion

on

Env

ironm

enta

l Q

ualit

y

Tolk

has

been

des

igna

ted

unde

r reg

iona

l haz

e. T

he re

gion

al h

aze

case

has

bee

n st

ayed

H

arrin

gton

use

s ci

ty a

fflue

nt fo

r coo

ling

wat

er; T

olk

uses

gro

undw

ater

U

nits

wer

e or

igin

ally

pla

nned

and

cer

tific

ated

for a

35-

year

life

; ext

ende

d to

60

year

s in

rate

cas

e se

ttlem

ents

Coa

lGen

erat

ion

Year

Installed

ND

CB

ook

Ret

irem

ent

Har

ringt

on 1

1976

339

MW

2036

Har

ringt

on 2

1978

339

MW

2038

Har

ringt

on 3

1980

340

MW

2040

Tolk

11982

521

MW

2042

Tolk

21985

524

MW

2045

Appendix K Page 15 of 138

Page 16: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

16

SPS

Land

scap

e (c

ont’d

)

M

arke

t Stru

ctur

e &

Tra

nsm

issi

on P

lann

ing/

Ow

ners

hip

Tr

ansm

issi

on in

vest

men

t dep

ende

nt u

pon

SP

P

Incr

easi

ng w

ind

in n

orth

ern

sub-

zone

impa

cts

Har

ringt

on c

oal

plan

t ope

ratio

ns

Con

gest

ed m

arke

t, lo

ng in

gen

erat

ion

Appendix K Page 16 of 138

Page 17: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

17

SPS

Land

scap

e (c

ont’d

)

Man

aged

ope

ratio

n of

two

coal

pla

nts

H

arrin

gton

is n

ow in

last

third

of l

ife

No

maj

or p

ollu

tion

cont

rol i

nves

tmen

t

Tolk

Sta

tion

is n

ow 3

2-35

yea

rs o

ld

Gro

undw

ater

ope

ratio

nal c

onsi

dera

tions

N

o m

ajor

pol

lutio

n co

ntro

l inv

estm

ent

M

anag

ed d

eclin

e of

old

hig

h he

at-ra

te N

G u

nits

M

inim

ized

cap

ital i

nves

tmen

t

Min

imiz

ed O

&M

clo

ser t

o re

tirem

ent d

ate

S

ubst

antia

l gen

erat

ion

expa

nsio

n re

quire

d in

the

late

202

0’s

Appendix K Page 17 of 138

Page 18: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Ren

ewab

le E

nerg

y La

ndsc

ape

S

igni

fican

t mer

chan

t ren

ewab

le in

vest

men

t (ol

der Q

F m

arke

t w

ind

win

ding

dow

n as

PTC

’s e

xpire

)

18

Existin

g rene

wable gen

eration

MW

wind in SPS

 footprint

2,586

PPA wind ou

tside SPS footprint

550

solar in SPS footprint

217

TOTA

L3,353

New

 rene

wables u

nder stud

y in SPS

MW

wind in SPS

 footprint

1,230

             wind by

 others

2,224

             so

lar b

y othe

rs1,211

TOTA

L4,665

Appendix K Page 18 of 138

Page 19: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

19

SPS

Gen

erat

ion

Tran

sitio

n O

ppor

tuni

ties

C

ompl

ete

SP

S W

ind

Initi

ativ

e

Dev

elop

oth

er re

new

able

opp

ortu

nitie

s

E

xplo

re T

olk

Sta

tion

oper

atin

g pl

an g

iven

gro

undw

ater

cos

ts

D

evel

op e

nviro

nmen

tal p

lan

for H

arrin

gton

dep

ende

nt o

n N

AA

QS

de

term

inat

ion

M

indf

ul o

f lon

g-te

rm e

nviro

nmen

tal p

ress

ure

Appendix K Page 19 of 138

Page 20: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

20

Summary of SPS’s 20

17 RPS

 Filing

Filed July 3, 201

7Ru

th Sakya

Manager, R

egulatory Po

licy

Appendix K Page 20 of 138

Page 21: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

21

2016

 Com

pliance Po

sition

Line

N

o.D

escr

iptio

nSo

lar

Oth

erD

GW

ind

- Rem

aini

ngTo

tal

120

16 N

M R

etail

Sale

s5,

279,

147

2

Less

Qua

lifying

Lar

ge C

usto

mer

Sale

s (To

tal)

2,23

1,08

5

3A

djus

ted

NM

Ret

ail S

ales (

L1 -

L2)

3,04

8,06

2

4O

vera

ll RPS

Req

uirem

ent (

%)

15%

5RP

S O

bliga

tion,

Exc

luding

Qua

lifying

Lar

ge C

usto

mer

s (L3

* L

4)45

7,20

9

6

Qua

lifying

Lar

ge C

usto

mer

MW

h fo

r the

RPS

(App

endi

x F)

137,

632

7Fi

nal R

PS O

bliga

tion

(L5

+ L6

)59

4,84

2

8

Dive

rsity

Req

uirem

ent (

% o

f RPS

)20

.0%

5.0%

3.0%

72.0

%10

0.0%

9RP

S O

bliga

tion

(L7

* L8

)11

8,96

8

29

,742

17,8

45

42

8,28

7

59

4,84

2

10 11

Begin

ning

REC

Bala

nce

-

-

1,51

5,69

9

1,51

5,69

9

12 13C

apro

ck W

ind G

ener

atio

n-

-

-

324,

238

324,

238

14Sa

n Ju

an W

ind G

ener

atio

n-

-

-

397,

581

397,

581

15M

esala

nds W

ind G

ener

atio

n-

-

-

2,99

0

2,

990

16

SunE

diso

n So

lar G

ener

atio

n10

8,87

9

-

-

-

10

8,87

9

17

Com

pany

Ow

ned

Solar

Gen

erat

ion

-

-

154

-

154

18So

larRe

war

ds (D

istrib

uted

Gen

erat

ion)

Gen

erat

ion

-

-

13,1

02

-

13

,102

19

Tota

l Ann

ual G

ener

atio

n (S

um L

13:L

18) (

Page

3)

108,

879

-

13

,256

724,

808

846,

943

20

Les

s Tra

nsfe

rs to

Who

lesale

Cus

tom

ers

-

-

-

15

7,82

0

15

7,82

0

21

L

ess R

EC S

ales (

all v

intag

es) (

Page

2)

-

-

-

-

-

22

L

ess E

xpiri

ng R

ECs

-

-

-

-

-

23

L

ess A

nnua

l RPS

Obl

igatio

n (L

9)11

8,96

8

29

,742

17,8

45

42

8,28

7

59

4,84

2

24

R

EC A

djus

tmen

ts fro

m P

rior Y

ears

-

-

102

(3)

99

25A

nnua

l Exc

ess/(

Def

icien

cy) (

L19

- L20

- L2

1 - L

22 -

L23

+ L2

4)(1

0,08

9)

(2

9,74

2)

(4

,487

)

138,

699

94,3

80

26 27C

umula

tive

Exce

ss/(D

efici

ency

) (L1

1 +

L25)

(10,

089)

(29,

742)

(4,4

87)

1,

654,

398

1,

610,

079

28

Repl

ace

Solar

, DG

& O

ther

with

Wind

for O

vera

ll RPS

Com

plian

ce1

10,0

89

29

,742

4,48

7

(44,

318)

-

29

Impa

ct o

f Rep

lacem

ents

(End

ing R

EC B

alanc

e)-

-

-

1,61

0,07

9

1,61

0,07

9

Appendix K Page 21 of 138

Page 22: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

22

Forecasted

 RPS

 Need & Position

 ‐2018

Line

N

o.D

escr

iptio

nSo

lar

Oth

erD

GW

ind

/Rem

aini

ngTo

tal

120

18 N

M R

etail S

ales

5,39

6,06

7

2

Less

Qua

lifying

Lar

ge C

usto

mer S

ales (

Total

)2,

231,

085

3Ad

justed

NM

Reta

il Sale

s (L1

- L2

)3,

164,

982

4O

vera

ll RPS

Req

uirem

ent (

%)

15%

5RP

S O

bliga

tion,

Exclu

ding Q

ualify

ing L

arge

Cus

tome

rs (L

3 *

L4)

474,

747

6

Qua

lifying

Lar

ge C

usto

mer M

Wh f

or th

e RPS

(Pag

e 3)

80,5

54

7Fi

nal R

PS O

bliga

tion (

L5 +

L6)

555,

302

8

Dive

rsity

Requ

ireme

nt (%

of R

PS)

20%

5%3%

72%

100%

9RP

S O

bliga

tion (

L7 *

L8)

111,

060

27,7

65

16,6

59

399,

817

555,

302

10 11

Begin

ning R

EC B

alanc

e-

-

-

1,70

9,30

1

1,70

9,30

1

12 13

Capr

ock

Gene

ratio

n-

-

-

311,

122

311,

122

14

San J

uan G

ener

ation

-

-

-

40

0,40

7

40

0,40

7

15M

esala

nds G

ener

ation

-

-

-

-

-

16

SunE

dison

Sola

r Gen

erati

on10

8,55

6

-

-

-

10

8,55

6

17Co

mpan

y Own

ed S

olar G

ener

ation

-

-

151

-

151

18

Solar

Rewa

rds (

Distr

ibuted

Gen

erati

on)

-

-

13,8

66

-

13,8

66

19To

tal A

nnua

l Gen

erati

on (S

um L

13:L

18)

108,

556

-

14

,017

71

1,52

9

83

4,10

2

20

Les

s Tra

nsfer

s to

Who

lesale

Cus

tome

rs-

-

-

140,

955

140,

955

21

L

ess R

EC S

ales (

all vi

ntage

s)-

-

-

-

-

22

Les

s Exp

iring R

ECs

-

-

-

-

-

23

L

ess A

nnua

l RPS

Obli

gatio

n (L9

)11

1,06

0

27

,765

16

,659

39

9,81

7

55

5,30

2

24

REC

Adj

ustm

ents

from

Prior

Yea

rs-

-

-

-

-

25An

nual

Exce

ss/(D

eficie

ncy)

(L19

- L2

0 - L

21 -

L22

- L23

- L2

4)1

(2,5

04)

(2

7,76

5)

(2

,642

)

170,

756

137,

845

26 27

Cumu

lative

Exc

ess/(

Defic

iency

) (L1

1 +

L25)

(2,5

04)

(2

7,76

5)

(2

,642

)

1,88

0,05

7

1,84

7,14

6

28

Repla

ce S

olar,

Othe

r, &

DG

with

Wind

for O

vera

ll RPS

Com

plian

ce2,

504

27

,765

2,

642

(3

2,91

1)

-

29

Impa

ct of

Rep

lacem

ents

(End

ing R

EC B

alanc

e)-

-

-

1,84

7,14

6

1,84

7,14

6

Appendix K Page 22 of 138

Page 23: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

23

Forecasted

 RPS

 Need & Position

 ‐2019

Line

N

o.D

escr

iptio

nSo

lar

Oth

erD

GW

ind

/Rem

aini

ngTo

tal

120

19 N

M R

etail S

ales

5,48

3,28

3

2

Less

Qua

lifying

Lar

ge C

usto

mer S

ales (

Total

)2,

231,

085

3Ad

justed

NM

Reta

il Sale

s (L1

- L2

)3,

252,

198

4O

vera

ll RPS

Req

uirem

ent (

%)

15%

5Un

adjus

ted R

PS O

bliga

tion (

L3 *

L4)

487,

830

6

Qua

lifying

Lar

ge C

usto

mer M

Wh f

or th

e RPS

(Pag

e 3)

90,1

18

7Fi

nal R

PS O

bliga

tion (

L5 +

L6)

577,

948

8

Dive

rsity

Requ

ireme

nt (%

of R

PS)

20%

5%3%

72%

100%

9RP

S O

bliga

tion (

L7 *

L8)

115,

590

28,8

97

17,3

38

416,

123

577,

948

10 11

Begin

ning R

EC B

alanc

e-

-

-

1,84

7,14

6

1,84

7,14

6

12 13

Capr

ock

Gene

ratio

n-

-

-

311,

059

311,

059

14

San J

uan G

ener

ation

-

-

-

40

0,39

2

40

0,39

2

15M

esala

nds G

ener

ation

-

-

-

-

-

16

SunE

dison

Sola

r Gen

erati

on10

5,72

3

-

-

-

10

5,72

3

17Co

mpan

y Own

ed S

olar G

ener

ation

-

-

151

-

151

18

Solar

Rewa

rds (

Distr

ibuted

Gen

erati

on)

-

-

13,7

95

-

13,7

95

19To

tal A

nnua

l Gen

erati

on (S

um L

13:L

18)

105,

723

-

13

,946

71

1,45

1

83

1,12

0

20

Les

s Tra

nsfer

s to

Who

lesale

Cus

tome

rs-

-

-

137,

126

137,

126

21

L

ess R

EC S

ales (

all vi

ntage

s)-

-

-

-

-

22

Les

s Exp

iring R

ECs

-

-

-

-

-

23

L

ess A

nnua

l RPS

Obli

gatio

n (L9

)11

5,59

0

28

,897

17

,338

41

6,12

3

57

7,94

8

24

REC

Adj

ustm

ents

from

Prior

Yea

rs-

-

-

-

-

25An

nual

Exce

ss/(D

eficie

ncy)

(L19

- L2

0 - L

21 -

L22

- L23

- L2

4)1

(9,8

66)

(2

8,89

7)

(3

,393

)

158,

203

116,

046

26 27

Cumu

lative

Exc

ess/(

Defic

iency

) (L1

1 +

L25)

(9,8

66)

(2

8,89

7)

(3

,393

)

2,00

5,34

9

1,96

3,19

2

28

Repla

ce S

olar,

Othe

r, &

DG

with

Wind

for O

vera

ll RPS

Com

plian

ce9,

866

28

,897

3,

393

(4

2,15

7)

-

29

Impa

ct of

Rep

lacem

ents

(End

ing R

EC B

alanc

e)-

-

-

1,96

3,19

2

1,96

3,19

2

Appendix K Page 23 of 138

Page 24: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

24

Que

stio

ns a

nd D

iscu

ssio

nQ

uest

ions

and

Dis

cuss

ion

Appendix K Page 24 of 138

Page 25: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

25

Topi

cs F

or F

utur

e M

eetin

gs

En

viro

nmen

tal U

pdat

e

Agi

ng G

ener

atio

n Fl

eet

G

as &

Pow

er M

arke

ts

C

oal S

uppl

y

Dem

and-

side

Man

agem

ent a

nd E

nerg

y Ef

ficie

ncy

St

orag

e

Appendix K Page 25 of 138

Page 26: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

26

Info

rmat

ion

ww

w.p

ower

fort

hepl

ains

.com

For m

ore

info

rmat

ion

on th

e ov

eral

l tra

nsm

issi

on p

lan

and

indi

vidu

al p

roje

cts:

Appendix K Page 26 of 138

Page 27: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

27

IRP

Info

rmat

ion

W

eb P

age

w

ww

.xce

lene

rgy.

com

/Abo

ut_U

s/R

ates

_&_R

egul

atio

ns/R

eso

urce

_Pla

ns

B

enni

e W

eeks

–Xc

el E

nerg

y/SP

S C

onta

ct

Add

ress

–79

0 B

ucha

nan,

Sui

te 7

00, A

mar

illo

TX 7

9101

Ph

one

-(80

6) 3

78-2

508

Em

ail –

benn

ie.w

eeks

@xc

elen

ergy

.com

Appendix K Page 27 of 138

Page 28: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

28

Nex

t Mee

ting

D

ate:

Th

ursd

ay, N

ovem

ber 9

, 201

7

Ti

me:

10

:00a

m to

12:

00pm

(Mou

ntai

n Ti

me)

Lo

catio

n:

Web

inar

mee

ting

Appendix K Page 28 of 138

Page 29: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

To

lk W

ate

r S

itu

ati

on

Ala

n J

. D

avid

so

n

Dir

ecto

r, C

ap

ita

l P

roje

cts

Novem

ber

9, 2017

Appendix K Page 29 of 138

Page 30: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Wh

at

is a

n a

qu

ife

r?

•B

elo

w a

cert

ain

depth

, th

e g

round, if it is

perm

eable

enough

to h

old

wate

r, is s

atu

rate

d w

ith

wa

ter

•T

he u

pper

surf

ace o

f th

is z

one o

f satu

ration is c

alle

d t

he

wate

r ta

ble

•T

he s

atu

rate

d z

one b

eneath

the w

ate

r ta

ble

conta

inin

g

sedim

ent

and r

ock is c

alle

d a

n a

quifer,

and a

quifers

are

huge

sto

rehouses f

or

wate

r

•W

ells

can b

e d

rille

d into

the a

quifers

and w

ate

r can b

e

pum

ped o

ut

•P

recip

itation e

ventu

ally

can a

dd w

ate

r (r

echarg

e)

into

the

poro

us r

ock o

f th

e a

quifer

if the s

urf

ace a

rea is a

daptive.

2

Appendix K Page 30 of 138

Page 31: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Dia

gra

m o

f a

n A

qu

ife

r

3

Appendix K Page 31 of 138

Page 32: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Wh

at

is S

atu

rate

d T

hic

kn

es

s?

•S

atu

rate

d thic

kness is the v

olu

me o

f th

e a

quifer

in w

hic

h t

he

pore

sp

aces a

re c

om

ple

tely

fill

ed (

sa

tura

ted

) w

ith

wa

ter.

•F

or

an u

nconfined a

quifer

like t

he O

galla

la,

the s

atu

rate

d

thic

kn

ess is t

he

dis

tan

ce f

rom

th

e w

ate

r ta

ble

su

rfa

ce

to

th

e

base o

f th

e a

quifer

•It

is t

he

th

ickn

ess t

ha

t su

pp

lies w

ate

r to

wells

. A

s w

ate

r le

ve

ls

declin

e,

so d

oes t

he s

atu

rate

d t

hic

kness

4

Appendix K Page 32 of 138

Page 33: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

5

Re

gio

na

l O

ve

rvie

w •

In L

am

b C

o. (H

PW

D, 2016)

•~

50

-fo

ot

avg

satu

rate

d t

hic

kn

ess

•~

16

-fo

ot

avg

sa

tura

ted

th

ick

ne

ss

d

ec

lin

e s

inc

e 2

00

6

•A

t ~

40-f

oo

t satu

rate

d t

hic

kn

ess, h

igh

-cap

acit

y w

ell

pro

du

cti

on

co

lla

pses

Am

ari

llo

To

lk S

tati

on

•T

WD

B R

eg

ion

O P

lan

•A

nn

ua

l 2

.9M

ac

re-f

oo

t s

up

ply

de

fic

it b

y 2

02

0

•H

igh

Pla

ins W

ate

r D

istr

ict

•N

o s

tric

t w

ate

r p

rod

uc

tio

n l

imit

an

d

no

req

uir

ed

usag

e

me

teri

ng

fo

r a

gri

cu

ltu

ral

wa

ter

us

ers

Re

gio

n O

L

ub

bo

ck

McG

uire

, V

.L., L

und

, K

.D.,

and

De

nsm

ore

,

B.K

., 2

012

, S

atu

rate

d th

ickn

ess a

nd

wa

ter

in

sto

rag

e in

th

e H

igh P

lain

s a

qu

ife

r, 2

00

9, a

nd

wa

ter-

leve

l ch

an

ge

s a

nd

ch

an

ge

s in

wa

ter

in

sto

rag

e in

th

e H

igh P

lain

s a

qu

ife

r, 1

98

0 to

199

5, 1

99

5 to

200

0, 2

00

0 to

200

5, a

nd

20

05

to 2

009: U

.S. G

eolo

gic

al S

urv

ey S

cie

ntific

Investigations R

eport

2012–5177, 28 p

.

Appendix K Page 33 of 138

Page 34: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

6 C

om

peti

tio

n f

or

Wa

ter

•90+

% o

f re

gio

nal w

ate

r u

sag

e f

or

ag

ricu

ltu

re

•50K

acre

well

fie

ld w

ith

~8

0 w

ell

s (

Ap

pro

xim

ate

ly 3

2 m

iles t

o f

urt

hest

well)

•B

oth

decli

nin

g w

ellfi

eld

vo

lum

e &

wellfi

eld

peak p

rod

ucti

vit

y c

on

cern

s

•L

ack o

f ag

ricu

ltu

ral w

ate

r u

se m

easu

rem

en

t =

fo

recast

un

cert

ain

ty

Xc

el E

nerg

y W

ell

s

Oth

er

We

lls

Xc

el E

nerg

y W

ate

r R

igh

ts

Pla

nt

X

Appendix K Page 34 of 138

Page 35: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

7

7 O

pe

rati

on

al Is

sue

s

Tolk

aq

uif

er

de

ple

tio

n -

2 is

sue

s

Issu

e 2

- P

eak

pro

du

ctio

n

Issu

e 1

- A

qu

ife

r lo

nge

vity

Can

we

get

th

e w

ate

r w

e

ne

ed

to

ru

n t

he

pla

nt?

W

he

n w

ill t

he

pla

nt

run

o

ut

of

wat

er?

•To

lk &

X g

ener

atio

n

•A

qu

ifer

sto

rage

Aq

uif

er g

eolo

gy

•W

ater

use

by

oth

ers

•To

lk &

X g

ener

atio

n

•W

ellf

ield

cap

acit

y •

Oth

er

pla

nt

op

erat

ion

s •

Wat

er c

on

veya

nce

Pro

du

ctio

n d

ecl

ine

Wat

er

bal

ance

sp

read

she

et

•Q

uic

kly

eval

uat

e c

han

ges/

inte

ract

ion

s b

etw

ee

n b

oth

issu

es

•C

han

ges

in c

apac

ity

fact

or/

reti

rem

en

t d

ate

fo

r su

bse

qu

en

t ch

arts

Appendix K Page 35 of 138

Page 36: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

8

Pla

nt

We

llfi

eld

De

cli

ne

•A

ug

us

t 2

01

6 –

T

olk

/Pla

nt

X

wa

ter

su

pp

ly i

ss

ue

s

(re

co

ve

ry d

uri

ng

sh

ort

ou

tag

e)

•A

nn

ua

l g

rou

nd

wa

ter

mo

de

lin

g –

LB

G-G

uyto

n A

ss

oc

iate

s

•B

i-a

nn

ua

l to

tal

sys

tem

su

pp

ly t

es

tin

g

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2,0

00

4,0

00

6,0

00

8,0

00

10

,00

0

12

,00

0

14

,00

0

16

,00

0

18

,00

0

199

21

99

52

00

42

00

52

00

62

00

72

00

82

00

92

01

02

01

12

01

22

01

32

01

42

01

5

No. of wells

Peak Flow Rate (gpm)

We

ll C

ou

nt

Pea

k F

low

Rate

(g

pm

)

Well

fie

ld P

rod

uc

tivit

y v

s.

Nu

mb

er

of

Well

s

Ex

isti

ng

pro

du

cti

vit

y

Ne

w w

ell p

rod

uc

tivit

y

Appendix K Page 36 of 138

Page 37: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

9

9

We

ll D

eve

lop

me

nt

Ap

pro

ach

es

Lin

ear

de

clin

e

1.

X n

ew w

ells

/yr

2

.A

nn

ual

pro

du

ctio

n d

eclin

e 3

.Su

pp

ly d

elta

mad

e u

p b

y p

on

d o

r p

lan

t d

erat

e if

sh

ort

age

No

n-l

ine

ar d

ecl

ine

1

.M

ain

tain

pea

k su

pp

ly

2.

An

nu

al p

rod

uct

ion

dec

line

gro

ws

wit

h m

ore

wel

ls

3.

Avo

ids

pea

k se

aso

n d

erat

e

Exam

ple

– 3

we

lls/y

r

Appendix K Page 37 of 138

Page 38: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Adeq

uate

wat

er su

pply

Conc

erns

, may

hav

e pe

ak p

rodu

ctio

n ch

alle

nges

Tolk

/X W

ellfi

eld

- Lon

g-te

rm w

ater

supp

ly a

ltern

ativ

esW

ater

supp

ly n

early

exh

aust

ed, p

eak

and

annu

al p

rodu

ctio

n ch

alle

nges

Alte

rnat

ive

ID

WR

Cost

Est.

($M

)

Dev

Cost

Est.

($M

)

Tota

l Cos

t

($M

)

Cum

ulat

ive

Cost

($M

)20

1620

1720

1820

1920

2020

2120

2220

2320

2420

2520

2620

2720

2820

2920

3020

3120

3220

3320

3420

3520

36

Curr

ent

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00

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orth

ern

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ultu

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cres

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t Eas

t (2,

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t al.

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+ fu

ture

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se 4

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000

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ture

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se 5

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000

acre

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ture

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se 6

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000

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vice

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00

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ern

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t al.

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90 a

c)9.

1012

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024

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ario

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00

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00

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t al.

(5,1

90 a

cres

)18

.20

12.5

030

.70

59.7

2

Scen

ario

5 (2

018

dera

te; U

1 20

23; U

2 20

25)

Scen

ario

6a

(201

8 de

rate

to 4

7%)

-0.

000.

00

+ N

orth

ern

Agric

ultu

re II

(2,3

90 a

cres

)8.

346.

5014

.84

14.8

4

+ Ba

rret

t Eas

t (2,

450

acre

s)8.

585.

6014

.18

29.0

2

+ Sm

ith, e

t al.

(5,1

90 a

cres

)18

.20

12.5

030

.70

59.7

2

Scen

ario

6b

(202

0 de

rate

to 4

7%)

-0.

000.

00

+ N

orth

ern

Agric

ultu

re II

(2,3

90 a

cres

)8.

346.

5014

.84

14.8

4

+ Ba

rret

t Eas

t (2,

450

acre

s)8.

585.

6014

.18

29.0

2

+ Sm

ith, e

t al.

(5,1

90 a

cres

)18

.20

12.5

030

.70

59.7

2

Futu

re P

roje

ctio

ns

•D

ynam

ic o

pera

tional m

odel cre

ate

d t

o m

onitor

/ pre

dic

t lif

e r

em

ain

ing o

f w

ell

field

•T

WD

B a

nd c

onsults c

onfirm

that

aquifer

is d

roppin

g w

ith s

erious f

utu

re c

onsequence

Appendix K Page 38 of 138

Page 39: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

11

Mit

igati

on

Alt

ern

ati

ves C

on

sid

ere

d

Alt

ern

ati

ves

Co

st

Hybrid c

oolin

g t

ow

er

retr

ofit

$2

00

M+

& t

ech

no

log

y r

isk

Waste

wate

r efflu

ent pip

elin

e

~$

20

0M

Ongoin

g w

ate

r right acquis

itio

n &

wellf

ield

expansio

n

(acquis

itio

n c

halle

nges d

ue t

o r

elu

cta

nce t

o s

ell

farm

busin

esses)

Pri

ce

is u

nce

rta

in

Horizonta

l w

ell

develo

pm

ent

~$3M

Reduced T

olk

/Pla

nt X

genera

tion

Cu

rre

ntly b

ein

g s

tud

ied

Appendix K Page 39 of 138

Page 40: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

12

On

go

ing

Ac

tiv

itie

s

We

llfi

eld

Sa

tura

tio

n

Th

ickn

ess a

nd

P

rod

uc

tio

n

Mo

nit

ori

ng

Pla

nt

Pro

ce

ss

R

evie

w f

or

Wa

ter

Co

ns

erv

ati

on

/ P

rod

ucti

on

O

pti

miz

ati

on

Gro

un

dw

ate

r

Mo

del U

pd

ate

(I

nte

rna

l a

nd

E

xte

rna

l)

Appendix K Page 40 of 138

Page 41: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Qu

es

tio

ns

an

d D

isc

us

sio

n

Appendix K Page 41 of 138

Page 42: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

IRP

In

form

ati

on

W

eb P

age:

htt

ps:/

/ww

w.x

ce

lene

rgy.

co

m/c

om

pa

ny/r

ate

s_a

nd

_re

gu

latio

ns/

resourc

e_pla

ns/s

ps_201

9-2

038

_in

tegra

ted

_re

so

urc

e_

pla

n

Note

: A

fter

navig

ating t

o the w

ebpage,

in t

he u

pper

left

-hand c

orn

er

of th

e p

age,

make s

ure

th

at “N

ew

Me

xic

o”

is s

ele

cte

d.

Clic

k o

n P

ublic

Advis

ory

Meeting t

hen

clic

k o

n t

he lin

k f

or

the s

econd m

eeting.

A

sh

ley G

ibb

on

s a

nd

Be

n E

lse

y –

Xce

l E

ne

rgy/S

PS

Co

nta

ct

A

ddre

ss:

1800 L

arim

er

Str

eet, S

te, 1600 D

enver

CO

80202

P

ho

ne

: A

sh

ley (

30

3)

57

1-2

81

3 a

nd

Be

n (

30

3)

57

1-6

70

5

E

ma

il:

ash

ley.

gib

bo

ns@

xcele

ne

rgy.

co

m

ben.r

.els

ey@

xcele

nerg

y.com

Appendix K Page 42 of 138

Page 43: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

To

pic

s F

or

Fu

ture

Me

eti

ng

s

E

nvironm

enta

l U

pdate

A

gin

g G

enera

tion F

leet

G

as &

Po

we

r M

ark

ets

C

oal S

upply

D

em

and-s

ide M

anagem

ent

and E

nerg

y E

ffic

iency

S

tora

ge

Appendix K Page 43 of 138

Page 44: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Next

Meeti

ng

•D

ate

:

T

uesd

ay,

Jan

uary

30, 2018

•T

ime

:

1

0:0

0am

to

12:0

0p

m (

Mo

un

tain

Tim

e)

•L

oc

ati

on

:

W

eb

inar

meeti

ng

Appendix K Page 44 of 138

Page 45: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Appendix K Page 45 of 138

Page 46: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Gas

and

Pow

er M

arke

t Pr

ice

Fore

cast

ing

Gas

and

Pow

er M

arke

t Pr

ice

Fore

cast

ing

Rob

in P

rest

onJa

nuar

y 30

, 201

8

Appendix K Page 46 of 138

Page 47: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

2

Xc

el c

reat

es fo

reca

sts

sem

i-ann

ually

in F

eb/A

ug

Hen

ry H

ub fo

reca

st “

4-So

urce

Ble

nd”

is a

n av

erag

e of

thre

e co

nsul

tant

s’ lo

ng te

rm fo

reca

sts

and

the

curr

ent N

YMEX

str

ip

Cur

rent

ly c

onsu

ltant

s fo

reca

sts

are…

o

IHS

-CE

RA

oP

IRA

oW

ood

Mac

kenz

ie

Nat

ural

Gas

Pric

e Fo

reca

stin

g M

etho

dolo

gy

Appendix K Page 47 of 138

Page 48: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

3

Rec

ent H

enry

Hub

4-S

ourc

e B

lend

For

ecas

t

(A

ugus

t 15t

h , 20

17)

Appendix K Page 48 of 138

Page 49: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

4

B

asis

diff

eren

tial i

s di

ffere

nce

in th

e ga

s pr

ice

at a

giv

en H

ub

com

pare

d to

a b

ench

mar

k lo

catio

n (i.

e. H

enry

Hub

)o

Cur

rent

dat

a so

urce

s fo

r bas

is: I

HS

-CE

RA

, PIR

A &

Woo

d M

acke

nzie

M

etho

dolo

gy:

oD

eter

min

e ap

prop

riate

hub

–E

xist

ing

units

: Use

the

hub

from

whe

re g

as is

trad

ition

ally

pr

ocur

ed–

New

uni

ts: D

eter

min

e m

ost l

ikel

y ge

nera

l loc

atio

n of

uni

t and

as

soci

ated

hub

oA

dd a

ppro

pria

te tr

ansp

orta

tion,

sto

rage

and

fuel

sur

char

ges

to

achi

eve

a de

liver

ed p

rice.

Nat

ural

Gas

Del

iver

ed P

rice

Appendix K Page 49 of 138

Page 50: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

5

C

alcu

late

the

aver

age

of IH

S-C

ERA

, PIR

A, a

nd

Woo

d M

acke

nzie

impl

ied

heat

rate

fore

cast

s to

de

rive

the

“hea

t rat

e” (

per M

Wh)

for a

giv

en

loca

tion.

M

ultip

ly th

e “h

eat r

ate”

by

the

“4-S

ourc

e B

lend

” na

tura

l gas

pric

e to

get

the

$/M

Wh

pric

e fo

r a g

iven

lo

catio

n.

Elec

tric

ity M

arke

t Pric

es

Appendix K Page 50 of 138

Page 51: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

6

Rec

ent S

PP E

lect

ricity

For

ecas

t –O

n Pe

ak(A

ug. 1

5th ,

2017

)

Appendix K Page 51 of 138

Page 52: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

7

Rec

ent S

PP E

lect

ricity

For

ecas

t –O

ff Pe

ak(A

ug. 1

5th ,

2017

)

Appendix K Page 52 of 138

Page 53: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Em

ergi

ng E

nviro

nmen

t Im

pact

s fo

r SP

S N

MIR

PE

mer

ging

Env

ironm

ent I

mpa

cts

for S

PS

NM

IRP

Dea

n M

etca

lfM

anag

er, E

nviro

nmen

tal S

ervi

ces

and

Med

ia C

ompl

ianc

eJa

nuar

y 30

, 201

8

Appendix K Page 53 of 138

Page 54: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Maj

or R

egul

atio

ns A

ffect

ing

SPS

Cro

ss-S

tate

Air

Pollu

tion

Rul

e (C

SAPR

)–

EPA

ado

pted

in 2

011

(Xce

l mad

e co

mm

ents

and

sue

d EP

A)

–Tw

o M

ain

Issu

es –

Texa

s’ In

clus

ion

and

EPA

Dis

appr

oval

of T

exas

St

ate

Plan

–D

C C

ircui

t Cou

rt S

taye

d C

SAPR

-D

ecem

ber 3

0, 2

011

–Li

tigat

ion

wen

t fro

m D

C C

ircui

t Cou

rt to

Sup

rem

e C

ourt

and

bac

k–

CSA

PR la

rgel

y up

held

, but

Tex

as e

mis

sion

bud

gets

wer

e fo

und

to

over

-con

trol

and

wer

e re

man

ded

to E

PA–

CSA

PR p

rogr

am to

ok e

ffect

Jan

uary

1, 2

015

–EP

A m

ade

sum

mer

NO

x bu

dget

tigh

ter,

and

rem

oved

Tex

as fr

om

CSA

PR li

mits

for a

nnua

l NO

x an

d SO

2 in

201

6-17

–C

hang

es in

SPS

sin

ce 2

011

(Add

ed W

ind

and

Tran

smis

sion

)–

Com

plia

nce

Stra

tegy

–D

ispa

tch

and

Allo

wan

ce P

urch

ase

Appendix K Page 54 of 138

Page 55: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Maj

or R

egul

atio

ns A

ffect

ing

SPS

(Con

t.)EG

U M

AC

T –

MA

TS R

ule

Reg

ulat

es–

Mer

cury

(Hg)

–Pa

rtic

ulat

e M

atte

r (PM

) –su

rrog

ate

for

toxi

c no

n-m

ercu

ry m

etal

s–

HC

l –su

rrog

ate

for a

ll to

xic

acid

gas

es–

Com

plia

nce

Stra

tegy

-A

CI a

nd P

M

Ave

ragi

ng P

lan

for H

1, H

2, H

3.–

2015

Com

plia

nce

(Tol

k an

d H

arrin

gton

)

Appendix K Page 55 of 138

Page 56: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Maj

or R

egul

atio

ns A

ffect

ing

SPS

(Con

t.)R

egio

nal H

aze

–B

AR

T –

Har

ringt

on 1

and

2 E

ligib

le–

Rea

sona

ble

Prog

ress

–C

an a

pply

to a

ll un

its–

2009

Tex

as s

ubm

itted

RH

SIP

–20

14 E

PA p

ropo

sed

RH

FIP

:•

CSA

PR m

eets

BA

RT

for T

exas

•R

easo

nabl

e Pr

ogre

ss: p

ropo

sed

scru

bber

s fo

r Tol

kU

nits

–20

16 E

PA a

dopt

ed fi

nal r

ule:

•D

id n

ot fi

naliz

e B

AR

T du

e to

CSA

PR re

man

d•

Req

uire

d sc

rubb

ers

for T

olk

Uni

ts

Appendix K Page 56 of 138

Page 57: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Maj

or R

egul

atio

ns A

ffect

ing

SP

S (C

ont.)

SPS

appe

aled

rule

impa

ctin

g To

lkto

5th

Circ

uit

Cou

rt•

In 2

016,

5th

Circ

uit C

ourt

sta

yed

rule

•In

201

7, E

PA re

ques

ted

a re

man

d•

Rem

and

gran

ted

by 5

thC

ircui

t Cou

rt, w

hich

left

stay

in e

ffect

and

is h

oldi

ng li

tigat

ion

until

EPA

co

mpl

etes

reco

nsid

erat

ion

•EP

A p

lans

to a

ddre

ss th

is n

ow th

at it

has

co

mpl

eted

its

BA

RT

rule

as

desc

ribed

bel

ow

Appendix K Page 57 of 138

Page 58: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Maj

or R

egul

atio

ns A

ffect

ing

SPS

(Con

t.)–

Janu

ary

2017

-EP

A p

ropo

sed

Texa

s B

AR

T ru

le th

at

incl

uded

dry

scr

ubbi

ng fo

r Har

ringt

on 1

and

2–

Xcel

sub

mits

com

men

ts in

May

201

7–

Sept

embe

r 201

7 EP

A a

dopt

ed a

rule

for a

Tex

as

only

trad

ing

prog

ram

bas

ed o

n C

SAPR

SO

2 bu

dget

s. L

imits

app

ly to

all

SPS

coal

uni

ts a

s a

BA

RT

Alte

rnat

ive

–EP

A a

lso

adop

ts ru

le re

mov

ing

Texa

s fr

om C

SAPR

–En

viro

nmen

tal a

dvoc

ates

hav

e ap

peal

ed b

oth

rule

s

Appendix K Page 58 of 138

Page 59: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Maj

or R

egul

atio

ns A

ffect

ing

SPS

(Con

t.)–

Litig

atio

n co

ntin

ues

–SP

S ha

s in

terv

ened

in s

uppo

rt o

f EPA

’s ru

les

–N

ext r

egio

nal h

aze

plan

for a

ll st

ates

is d

ue in

20

21

Appendix K Page 59 of 138

Page 60: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Maj

or R

egul

atio

ns A

ffect

ing

SPS

(Con

t.)N

atio

nal A

mbi

ent A

ir Q

ualit

y St

anda

rds

-NA

AQ

S fo

r SO

2, O

zone

, PM

, NO

2-A

reas

nea

r SPS

pla

nts

have

bee

n de

sign

ated

atta

inm

ent f

or

ozon

e, P

M a

nd N

O2

-SO

2 de

sign

atio

ns c

ompl

ete:

-Are

a ne

ar T

olk

Stat

ion

mee

ts s

tand

ard

-Are

a ne

ar H

arrin

gton

Sta

tion

bein

g m

onito

red

and

area

w

ill b

e de

sign

ated

in 2

020

-If d

esig

nate

d no

natta

inm

ent,

Texa

s pl

an w

ould

be

due

in 2

022

-Pot

entia

l for

incr

ease

d co

ntro

ls a

t Har

ringt

on-A

ttain

men

t wou

ld b

e re

quire

d by

202

5

Appendix K Page 60 of 138

Page 61: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Maj

or R

egul

atio

ns A

ffect

ing

SPS

(Con

t.)C

oal C

ombu

stio

n R

esid

uals

(CC

R)

Rul

es-R

egul

atio

n of

coa

l ash

as

nonh

azar

dous

-Inc

reas

ed la

ndfil

l con

stru

ctio

n &

m

onito

ring

requ

irem

ents

onc

e ou

r ash

be

com

es n

on-s

alea

ble

-Pot

entia

l to

affe

ct a

sh s

ales

–10

0%

bene

ficia

l use

Appendix K Page 61 of 138

Page 62: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Maj

or R

egul

atio

ns A

ffect

ing

SPS

(Con

t.)C

lean

Pow

er P

lan

–G

HG

111

(d)

-20

15 fi

nal r

ules

for G

HG

regu

latio

n fr

om e

xist

ing

sour

ces

-St

ayed

by

Supr

eme

Cou

rt in

201

6-

EPA

has

pro

pose

d to

repe

al th

e C

PP-

Com

men

ts d

ue in

Apr

il 20

18-

Unk

now

n w

heth

er E

PA w

ould

ado

pt a

re

plac

emen

t rul

e, o

r wha

t for

m th

at m

ight

take

Appendix K Page 62 of 138

Page 63: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Maj

or R

egul

atio

ns A

ffect

ing

SPS

(Con

t.)

Thre

aten

ed a

nd E

ndan

gere

d Sp

ecie

s–

Sand

Dun

e Li

zard

–Le

sser

Pra

irie

Chi

cken

Avi

an P

rote

ctio

n–

APP

Appendix K Page 63 of 138

Page 64: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Maj

or R

ules

Not

Affe

ctin

g SP

S (a

t thi

s tim

e)

•C

CR

–C

oal C

ombu

stio

n R

esid

ual

rule

or A

sh R

ule

•31

6(b)

–W

ater

Inta

ke S

truc

ture

Rul

e•

WO

TUS

–W

ater

s of

the

Uni

ted

Stat

es

Appendix K Page 64 of 138

Page 65: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Rec

ent I

ssue

s A

ffect

ing

SP

S•

Gai

nes

Co

Pla

nt P

erm

ittin

g•

Win

d, W

ind,

Win

d•

City

of A

mar

illo a

nd N

/H W

aste

wat

er

Per

mit

Appendix K Page 65 of 138

Page 66: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Qu

es

tio

ns

an

d D

isc

us

sio

n

Appendix K Page 66 of 138

Page 67: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

IRP

In

form

ati

on

W

eb P

age:

htt

ps:/

/ww

w.x

ce

lene

rgy.

co

m/c

om

pa

ny/r

ate

s_a

nd

_re

gu

latio

ns/

resourc

e_pla

ns/s

ps_201

9-2

038

_in

tegra

ted

_re

so

urc

e_

pla

n

Note

: A

fter

navig

ating t

o the w

ebpage,

in t

he u

pper

left

-hand c

orn

er

of th

e p

age,

make s

ure

th

at “N

ew

Me

xic

o”

is s

ele

cte

d.

Clic

k o

n P

ublic

Advis

ory

Meeting t

hen

clic

k o

n t

he lin

k f

or

the s

econd m

eeting.

A

sh

ley G

ibb

on

s a

nd

Be

n E

lse

y –

Xce

l E

ne

rgy/S

PS

Co

nta

ct

A

ddre

ss:

1800 L

arim

er

Str

eet, S

te, 1600 D

enver

CO

80202

P

ho

ne

: A

sh

ley (

30

3)

57

1-2

81

3 a

nd

Be

n (

30

3)

57

1-6

70

5

E

ma

il:a

sh

ley.

gib

bo

ns@

xcele

ne

rgy.

co

m

ben.r

.el s

ey@

xcele

nerg

y.com

Appendix K Page 67 of 138

Page 68: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

To

pic

s F

or

Fu

ture

Me

eti

ng

s

A

gin

g G

enera

tion F

leet

Coal S

upply

Dem

and-s

ide M

anagem

ent

and E

nerg

y E

ffic

iency

Sto

rage

Appendix K Page 68 of 138

Page 69: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Next

Meeti

ng

•D

ate

:

T

uesd

ay, March

27,

2018

•T

ime

:

10:0

0am

to

12:0

0p

m (

Mo

un

tain

Tim

e)

•L

oc

ati

on

:

W

eb

inar

meeti

ng

Appendix K Page 69 of 138

Page 70: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Appendix K Page 70 of 138

Page 71: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Us

ed

fo

r P

lan

nin

g

Pu

rpo

se

s O

nly

So

uth

we

ste

rn P

ub

lic S

erv

ice

Co

mp

an

y

Sa

les a

nd

Lo

ad

Fo

reca

stin

g

N

ew

Mexic

o R

esourc

e P

lan P

ublic

Advis

ory

Meeting

Marc

h 2

7, 2018

Appendix K Page 71 of 138

Page 72: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Agenda

2

•E

nerg

y a

nd p

ea

k d

em

an

d f

ore

castin

g p

rocess

•E

co

no

mic

an

d d

em

og

rap

hic

assu

mp

tio

ns

•W

ea

the

r a

ssu

mp

tio

ns

•F

ore

cast ad

justm

ents

•E

ne

rgy a

nd

pe

ak d

em

an

d f

ore

ca

st

resu

lts

•S

E N

ew

Me

xic

o o

il d

eve

lop

me

nt

•F

ore

cast

scena

rio

s

Appendix K Page 72 of 138

Page 73: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

3

Fore

casting P

rocess

•3

0-y

ea

r fo

reca

sts

of

mo

nth

ly c

usto

me

rs,

sa

les a

nd

pe

ak d

em

an

d a

re d

eve

lop

ed

usin

g p

rim

arily

re

gre

ssio

n a

na

lysis

.

•R

eta

il sa

les a

re fo

recast by m

ajo

r cla

ss a

nd

by s

tate

.

•R

eta

il p

ea

k d

em

an

d is fo

reca

st

at

the

ag

gre

ga

ted

co

mp

an

y level.

•W

ho

lesa

le s

ale

s a

nd

pe

ak d

em

an

d a

re

fore

ca

st

by in

div

idu

al cu

sto

me

r.

Appendix K Page 73 of 138

Page 74: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Regre

ssio

n A

naly

sis

• U

se s

tatistical re

lationship

s b

etw

een m

onth

ly s

ale

s o

r

dem

and a

nd

expla

nato

ry v

ariable

s s

uch a

s e

conom

ics,

wea

the

r, c

usto

me

rs, a

nd

price o

f e

lectr

icity.

O

nce

a

sta

tistical re

lationship

is e

sta

blis

hed f

rom

his

torical data

, th

e

rela

tionship

is a

pplie

d t

o the fore

cast of th

e e

xpla

nato

ry

va

riab

les t

o d

erive

a s

ale

s o

r d

em

an

d f

ore

ca

st.

This

pro

cess is r

efe

rred to a

s r

egre

ssio

n a

naly

sis

. –

Fo

r e

xa

mp

le: R

esid

en

tia

l sa

les =

f (

nu

mb

er

of cu

sto

me

rs, w

ea

the

r,

ho

use

ho

ld in

co

me

)

• S

tre

ngth

s:

indu

str

y s

tand

ard

, ro

bu

st,

te

st re

su

lts,

defin

es

rela

tionship

s,

adapta

ble

/fle

xib

le

• W

eaknesses:

his

torical re

lationship

s c

an c

hange,

limited b

y

availa

ble

data

, e

xtr

em

es c

an c

rea

te c

ha

llen

ge

s

4

Appendix K Page 74 of 138

Page 75: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Oth

er

Meth

odolo

gie

s

•L

oa

d f

acto

r a

na

lysis

•H

isto

rica

l tr

en

ds

•C

on

tra

ctu

al re

qu

ire

me

nts

•E

xo

ge

no

us a

dju

stm

en

ts f

or

ne

w lo

ad

on

th

e

syste

m

5

Appendix K Page 75 of 138

Page 76: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Econom

ic a

nd D

em

ogra

phic

Assu

mp

tio

ns

•E

co

no

mic

and

dem

og

raph

ic d

ata

obta

ine

d f

rom

IH

S G

lob

al

Insig

ht, Inc. (b

oth

his

torical and f

ore

cast)

for

U.S

., s

tate

and

counties.

County

level data

is a

ggre

gate

d t

o s

erv

ice

terr

itory

.

•E

conom

ic a

nd d

em

ogra

phic

variable

s u

sed in m

odelin

g

inclu

de s

erv

ice a

rea e

mplo

ym

ent, h

ousehold

s,

pers

onal

incom

e,

popula

tion,

Gro

ss C

ounty

Pro

duct;

Gro

ss S

tate

Pro

du

ct

(GS

P);

and

U.S

. G

ross D

om

estic P

rodu

ct,

oil

and

gas e

xtr

action index a

nd

oil

prices.

6

Appendix K Page 76 of 138

Page 77: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

-6.0

%

-4.0

%

-2.0

%

0.0

%

2.0

%

4.0

%

6.0

%

8.0

%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

An

nu

al

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

an

ge

CG

CP

_T

XC

GC

P_N

M

Texas a

nd N

ew

Mexic

o S

erv

ice

Are

a

Gro

ss C

ou

nty

Pro

du

ct

Gro

wth

7 S

ou

rce

: IH

S

His

torica

l D

ata

En

ds: 2

01

6

Appendix K Page 77 of 138

Page 78: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Texas a

nd N

ew

Mexic

o J

ob G

row

th

8

-5.0

%

-4.0

%

-3.0

%

-2.0

%

-1.0

%

0.0

%

1.0

%

2.0

%

3.0

%

4.0

%

5.0

%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

An

nu

al

Perc

en

tag

e C

han

ge

Te

xa

s E

mplo

ym

en

tN

ew

Me

xic

o E

mplo

ym

en

t

So

urc

e: IH

S,

Bu

rea

u o

f L

ab

or

Sta

tistics

His

torica

l D

ata

En

ds: 2

01

6

Appendix K Page 78 of 138

Page 79: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Oil

Price

9

$-

$20.0

0

$40.0

0

$60.0

0

$80.0

0

$100

.00

$120

.00

$140

.00

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

2036W

est

Texas In

term

ed

iate

Oil P

rice

($

/ba

rre

l)

Nom

inal

So

urc

e: IH

S

His

torica

l D

ata

En

ds: D

ece

mb

er

20

17

Appendix K Page 79 of 138

Page 80: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Oil

and G

as E

xtr

action Index

10

0.0

00

20

.00

0

40

.00

0

60

.00

0

80

.00

0

10

0.0

00

12

0.0

00

14

0.0

00

16

0.0

00

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

Oil

& G

as E

xtr

acti

on

Oil

& G

as E

xtr

actio

n

So

urc

e: IH

S

His

torica

l D

ata

En

ds: D

ece

mb

er

20

17

Appendix K Page 80 of 138

Page 81: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Weath

er A

ssum

ptions

•W

ea

the

r d

ata

co

llecte

d fro

m N

OA

A f

or

Am

arillo

,

Lu

bb

ock,

an

d R

osw

ell

•F

ore

ca

st

assu

me

s n

orm

al w

ea

the

r d

efin

ed

as 3

0-

ye

ar

rolli

ng

ave

rag

e

•In

clu

des tem

pe

ratu

re,

Heating D

egre

e D

ay (

HD

D),

Co

olin

g D

eg

ree

Da

y (

CD

D),

an

d

pre

cip

ita

tio

n

•H

isto

rica

l sa

les a

nd

pe

ak d

em

an

d a

re w

ea

the

r

norm

aliz

ed f

or

va

ria

nce a

naly

sis

11

Appendix K Page 81 of 138

Page 82: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Re

sid

en

tia

l F

ore

ca

st

Exo

ge

no

us A

dju

stm

en

t fo

r E

lectr

ic V

eh

icle

s*

Ele

ctr

ic V

eh

icle

Ad

op

tio

n C

om

pari

so

n

U.S

. A

do

pti

on

Rate

s2016

20

20

2025

2030

Xcel E

nerg

y0.2

%0.7

%2.8

%9.6

%

Blo

om

berg

0.2

%1.0

%3.0

%9.0

%

Gre

en

Tech

Med

ia3.8

%

En

erg

y I

nfo

rmati

on

Ag

en

cy

2.6

%

Navig

an

t0.2

%1.0

%2.8

%

Ban

k o

f A

meri

ca/M

err

ill L

yn

ch

(glo

balad

op

tio

n)

0.2

%1

.0%

10

.0%

33

.0%

*Ele

ctr

ic V

eh

icle

assu

mp

tio

ns p

rovid

ed

by E

V S

trate

gy t

ea

m (

Ris

k A

na

lytics, S

trate

gy &

Pla

nn

ing, a

nd

Custo

me

r S

olu

tions)

12

SP

S B

ase

Sce

na

rio

Ye

ar

# C

ars

%

of ca

rs

EV

Fore

ca

st

(GW

h)

20

18

1

,79

3

0.3

0%

1

20

19

2

,89

8

0.4

0%

5

20

20

5

,01

6

0.7

0%

1

2

20

21

6

,64

1

1.0

0%

2

0

20

22

8

,48

5

1.2

0%

2

8

20

23

11

,00

4

1.6

0%

3

8

20

24

1

4,5

86

2.1

0%

5

2

20

25

1

4,5

86

2.1

0%

5

2

20

26

1

4,5

86

2.1

0%

5

2

20

27

1

4,5

86

2.1

0%

5

2

20

28

1

4,5

86

2.1

0%

5

2

20

29

1

4,5

86

2.1

0%

5

2

20

30

1

4,5

86

2.1

0%

5

2

20

31

1

4,5

86

2.1

0%

5

2

20

32

1

4,5

86

2.1

0%

5

2

20

33

1

4,5

86

2.1

0%

5

2

20

34

1

4,5

86

2.1

0%

5

2

20

35

1

4,5

86

2.1

0%

5

2

0

20

40

60

80

10

0

12

0

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

GWh

Imp

act

of

EV A

do

pti

on

on

Ele

ctri

city

Sal

es

SPS

Ener

gy L

ow

SPS

Ener

gy H

igh

SPS

Ener

gy B

ase

Appendix K Page 82 of 138

Page 83: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Dis

trib

ute

d G

enera

tion

•T

he

his

tori

ca

l e

ne

rgy s

ale

s d

ata

use

d in

SP

S’s

fore

ca

st

mo

de

ling

pro

ce

ss is n

et

of

be

hin

d-t

he

-

me

ter

ge

ne

ratio

n a

nd

de

ma

nd

re

sp

on

se

en

erg

y

sa

les.

•T

he h

isto

rica

l peak d

em

and

data

used

in

the

fore

ca

stin

g p

roce

ss h

as b

ee

n a

dju

ste

d t

o a

dd

ba

ck

be

hin

d-t

he

-me

ter

ge

ne

ratio

n a

nd

de

ma

nd

resp

on

se

to

re

pre

se

nt

the

to

tal d

em

an

d o

n t

he

syste

m.

13

Appendix K Page 83 of 138

Page 84: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Dem

and-S

ide M

anagem

ent

•S

ale

s a

nd

pe

ak d

em

an

d f

ore

ca

sts

are

ad

juste

d t

o

acco

un

t fo

r e

xp

ecte

d in

cre

me

nta

l D

SM

sa

vin

gs

•D

SM

sa

vin

gs a

re b

ased o

n leg

isla

ted m

an

date

s

•R

esid

en

tia

l p

rog

ram

s:

CF

Ls,

air

so

urc

e h

ea

t pum

ps,

and

co

olin

g

•C

&I

pro

gra

ms:

bu

sin

ess lig

htin

g,

co

olin

g,

mo

tor

rep

lace

me

nt,

an

d c

usto

m p

roje

cts

14

Appendix K Page 84 of 138

Page 85: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Custo

mer

Fore

cast

15

10

0,0

00

15

0,0

00

200

,000

25

0,0

00

30

0,0

00

35

0,0

00

40

0,0

00

45

0,0

00

50

0,0

00

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

SP

S T

ota

l R

eta

il C

usto

mers

Resid

en

tia

lC

&I

Oth

er

20

17

Cu

sto

me

r C

ou

nts

:

Re

sid

en

tia

l -

30

6,2

48

To

tal C

&I

– 7

7,5

72

Oth

er

– 6

,61

6

To

tal S

PS

– 3

90

,13

6

Reta

il A

vg. A

nnual %

Ch.

2011-2

017 =

0.6

%

2018–2038 =

0.5

%

Appendix K Page 85 of 138

Page 86: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

SP

S F

ore

cast K

ey D

rivers

16

•R

esid

ential

–D

eclin

ing

use

pe

r cu

sto

me

r d

ue

to

lig

htin

g s

tan

da

rds

–F

ore

ca

st a

dju

ste

d fo

r im

pa

cts

of E

V’s

•S

mall

C/I

–D

eclin

ing

use

pe

r cu

sto

me

r in

Te

xa

s

–In

cre

asin

g u

se p

er

custo

mer

in N

ew

Mexic

o

•Larg

e C

/I

–S

ale

s g

row

th fla

tte

ns a

fte

r 2

02

0 b

ase

d o

n O

il &

Ga

s E

xtr

actio

n

Index

Appendix K Page 86 of 138

Page 87: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Sale

s F

ore

cast

17

Re

tail

Avg

. A

nn

ua

l %

Ch

. 2

011-2

017 =

1.1

% 2

01

8–

203

8 =

0.5

%

SP

S A

vg

. A

nn

ua

l %

Ch

. 2

011

-20

17

= -

4.3

% 2018–

20

38

= -

0.1

%

0

5,0

00

10

,00

0

15

,00

0

20

,00

0

25

,00

0

30

,00

0

35

,00

0

40

,00

0

45

,00

0

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037S

PS

To

tal S

ale

s (

GW

h)

Resid

en

tia

lT

ota

l C

om

Oth

er

Fu

ll R

eq

Pa

rtia

l R

eq

Appendix K Page 87 of 138

Page 88: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

18

15

,00

0,0

00

16

,00

0,0

00

17

,00

0,0

00

18

,00

0,0

00

19

,00

0,0

00

20

,00

0,0

00

21

,00

0,0

00

22

,00

0,0

00

23

,00

0,0

00

24

,00

0,0

00

25

,00

0,0

00

26

,00

0,0

00

27

,00

0,0

00

28

,00

0,0

00

29

,00

0,0

00

30

,00

0,0

00

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

MWh

SP

S T

ota

l R

eta

il E

lect

ric

Sa

les

His

tory

20

18

Fo

reca

st2

01

8 B

ud

ge

t

20

17

Bu

dg

et

20

16

Bu

dg

et

20

15

Bu

dg

et

20

14

Bu

dg

et

Sale

s F

ore

cast C

om

parison

20

15

IR

P

Appendix K Page 88 of 138

Page 89: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Peak D

em

and F

ore

cast

19

Re

tail

Avg

. A

nn

ua

l %

Ch

. 2

011-2

01

7 =

0.7

% 2

01

8–

203

8 =

0.5

%

SP

S A

vg

. A

nn

ua

l %

Ch

. 2

011

-20

17

= -

2.7

% 2

01

5–

20

38

= -

0.5

%

0

1,0

00

2,0

00

3,0

00

4,0

00

5,0

00

6,0

00

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

SP

S F

irm

Pe

ak

De

ma

nd

(M

W)

Reta

il Load

Whole

sale

Full

Req

Whole

sale

Part

ial R

eq

Appendix K Page 89 of 138

Page 90: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Peak F

ore

cast C

om

parison

20

0

10

00

20

00

30

00

40

00

50

00

60

00

70

00

80

00

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038S

PS

Fir

m P

eak D

em

an

d (

MW

)

20

15 I

RP

Fili

ng

Cu

rre

nt

Fo

reca

st

His

tory

Appendix K Page 90 of 138

Page 91: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

21

Ye

ar

Cu

st

1

Cu

st

2

Cu

st

3

Cu

st

5

Cu

st

4

Cu

st

6

Cu

st

7

Cu

st

8

Cu

st

9

Cu

st

11

Cu

st

10

T

ota

l

2018

5

9

6

8

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

28

2019

5

55

6

30

9

53

25

14

28

0

0

224

2020

5

55

12

52

9

140

46

20

28

25

0

391

2021

5

55

12

52

9

230

46

26

28

25

0

487

2022

5

55

12

52

9

273

46

32

28

25

0

536

2023

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2024

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2025

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2026

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2027

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2028

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2029

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2030

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2031

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2032

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2033

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2034

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2035

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2036

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2037

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

2038

5

55

12

52

9

311

46

38

28

25

17

597

Pote

ntial Load F

or

SP

S (

in M

W)

S

PS

Ke

y A

cco

un

t M

an

age

rs p

rovid

e p

ote

ntial n

ew

lo

ad

th

at h

as b

ee

n ide

ntified

th

rou

gh

co

nve

rsation

s

with

th

e c

usto

me

r.

T

imin

g a

nd

actu

al lo

ad

ris

ks.

Appendix K Page 91 of 138

Page 92: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Fore

cast S

cenarios

•P

rob

ab

ility

dis

trib

utio

ns a

re d

eve

lop

ed

by

co

nd

uctin

g M

on

te C

arl

o s

imu

latio

ns o

n t

he

ma

in

dri

ve

rs (

e.g

., w

ea

the

r a

nd

eco

no

mic

s)

of

en

erg

y

an

d p

ea

k d

em

an

d f

ore

ca

sts

•L

ow

-gro

wth

scena

rio

is e

qu

iva

len

t to

the 1

5th

pe

rce

ntile

pro

ba

bili

ty d

istr

ibu

tio

n

•H

igh

-gro

wth

sce

na

rio

is e

qu

iva

len

t to

th

e 8

5th

perc

entile

pro

bab

ility

dis

trib

ution

22

Appendix K Page 92 of 138

Page 93: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Energ

y F

ore

cast S

cenarios

23

7,5

00

12,5

00

17,5

00

22,5

00

27,5

00

32,5

00

37,5

00

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

SP

S T

ota

l E

ne

rgy (

GW

H)

Low

Base

Hig

h

Appendix K Page 93 of 138

Page 94: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Peak D

em

and F

ore

cast S

cenarios

24

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

5,0

00

5,5

00

6,0

00

6,5

00

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

Fir

m P

ea

k D

em

an

d (

MW

)

Low

Base

Hig

h

Appendix K Page 94 of 138

Page 95: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Ap

pe

nd

ix

Appendix K Page 95 of 138

Page 96: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

26

Fe

b 2

01

8 F

ore

ca

st

ad

jus

ted

for

cu

sto

me

r w

hic

h c

am

e

on

lin

e in

Ja

nu

ary

20

18

MW

hC

ha

ng

e%

Ch

an

ge

2010

1,8

03,1

97

134,0

59

8.0

%

2011

1,8

64,3

06

61,1

09

3.4

%

2012

1,9

40,9

17

76,6

12

4.1

%

2013

2,0

90,4

60

149,5

43

7.7

%

2014

2,2

32,0

83

141,6

22

6.8

%

2015

2,2

73,3

23

41,2

40

1.8

%

2016

2,4

88,6

19

215,2

96

9.5

%

2017

2,6

56,4

87

167,8

69

6.7

%

2018

2,8

34,2

24

177,7

37

6.7

%

2019

2,9

91,6

10

157,3

86

5.6

%

2020

3,1

38,1

74

146,5

64

4.9

%

2021

3,2

36,0

92

97,9

18

3.1

%

2022

3,2

93,5

67

57,4

75

1.8

%

2023

3,3

40,9

05

47,3

37

1.4

%

20

18

-20

23

Fo

rec

as

t (F

eb

20

18

)

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Ne

w M

ex

ico

La

rge

C&

I Sa

les

(G

Wh

)

His

tory

Ma

r 20

17

Ju

l 2

01

7

Fe

b 2

01

8

Ne

w M

ex

ico

La

rge

C/I

Sa

les

Gro

wth

Ye

ar

His

tori

ca

l

Gro

wth

His

tori

ca

l G

row

th

w/o

New

Lo

ad

s

20

13

7

.7%

2

.6%

20

14

6

.8%

2

.7%

20

15

1

.8%

2

.0%

20

16

9

.5%

3

.4%

20

17

6

.7%

2

.1%

Appendix K Page 96 of 138

Page 97: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

27

MW

hC

ha

ng

e%

Ch

an

ge

2010

7,5

21,3

17

210,5

48

2.9

%

2011

7,6

81,6

54

160,3

37

2.1

%

2012

7,7

61,9

88

80,3

34

1.0

%

2013

7,7

99,8

67

37,8

78

0.5

%

2014

8,0

29,4

91

229,6

24

2.9

%

2015

8,0

60,6

10

31,1

19

0.4

%

2016

8,0

28,7

25

-31,8

85

-0.4

%

2017

8,0

67,1

44

38,4

19

0.5

%

2018

8,1

05,0

92

37,9

48

0.5

%

2019

8,1

55,7

17

50,6

25

0.6

%

2020

8,2

18,4

13

62,6

96

0.8

%

2021

8,2

53,2

11

34,7

98

0.4

%

2022

8,2

92,3

93

39,1

82

0.5

%

2023

8,3

32,2

14

39,8

20

0.5

%

20

18

-20

23

Fo

rec

as

t (F

eb

20

18

)

7,0

00

7,5

00

8,0

00

8,5

00

9,0

00

9,5

00

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Te

xas

La

rge

C&

I Sa

les

(G

Wh

)H

isto

ry

Ma

r 20

17

Ju

l 2

01

7

Fe

b 2

01

8

Appendix K Page 97 of 138

Page 98: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Appendix K Page 98 of 138

Page 99: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Qu

es

tio

ns

an

d D

isc

us

sio

n

Appendix K Page 99 of 138

Page 100: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

IRP

In

form

ati

on

W

eb P

age:

htt

ps:/

/ww

w.x

ce

lene

rgy.

co

m/c

om

pa

ny/r

ate

s_a

nd

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gu

latio

ns/

resourc

e_pla

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ps_201

9-2

038

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tegra

ted

_re

so

urc

e_

pla

n

Note

: A

fter

navig

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o the w

ebpage,

in the u

pper

left

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orn

er

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e p

age,

ma

ke

su

re t

ha

t “N

ew

Me

xic

o”

is s

ele

cte

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Clic

k o

n P

ub

lic A

dvis

ory

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etin

g t

he

n

clic

k o

n t

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k for

the third

meeting.

A

sh

ley G

ibb

on

s a

nd

Be

n E

lse

y –

Xce

l E

ne

rgy/S

PS

Co

nta

ct

A

ddre

ss:

1800 L

arim

er

Str

eet, S

te, 1600 D

enver

CO

80202

P

ho

ne

: A

sh

ley (

30

3)

57

1-2

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nd

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n (

30

3)

57

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5

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ma

il:a

sh

ley.

gib

bo

ns@

xcele

ne

rgy.

co

m

ben.r

.el s

ey@

xcele

nerg

y.com

Appendix K Page 100 of 138

Page 101: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

To

pic

s F

or

Fu

ture

Me

eti

ng

s

Coal S

upply

Sto

rag

e

Appendix K Page 101 of 138

Page 102: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Next

Meeti

ng

•D

ate

:

Thu

rsd

ay, May

31,

2018

•T

ime

:

10:0

0am

to

12:0

0p

m (

Mo

un

tain

Tim

e)

•L

oc

ati

on

:

W

eb

inar

meeti

ng

Appendix K Page 102 of 138

Page 103: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Appendix K Page 103 of 138

Page 104: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

2018 S

PS

In

teg

rate

d R

eso

urc

e P

lan

(“

IRP

”)

P

ub

lic A

dvis

ory

Meeti

ng

#5

1

SP

S R

es

ou

rce

Pla

nn

ing

Appendix K Page 104 of 138

Page 105: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Co

al S

up

ply

Pre

sen

tati

on

Da

na

Ec

hte

r

Ma

na

ge

r, F

ue

l S

up

ply

Op

era

tio

ns

Ma

y 3

1,

20

18

Appendix K Page 105 of 138

Page 106: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

3

Ha

rrin

gto

n S

tati

on

L

oc

ati

on

: n

ea

r A

ma

rill

o,

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xa

s

T

hre

e c

oa

l-fi

red

un

its

: 1

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6 n

et

MW

C

oa

l s

ou

rce

s

L

ow

-su

lfu

r S

ou

thern

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wd

er

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Basin

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RB

”)

co

al

min

es

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ort

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nte

lop

e R

oc

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lop

e a

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ck

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hu

nd

er

R

ail

Tra

ns

po

rta

tio

n:

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rlin

gto

n N

ort

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rn S

an

ta F

e (

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SF

)

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res

tle

un

loa

din

g s

ys

tem

2

01

7 c

on

su

mp

tio

n:

~2

.8 m

illi

on

to

ns

Appendix K Page 106 of 138

Page 107: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

4

To

lk S

tati

on

L

oc

ati

on

: n

ea

r M

ule

sh

oe

, T

ex

as

T

wo

co

al-

fire

d u

nit

s:

1,1

30

ne

t M

W

C

oa

l s

ou

rce

s

L

ow

-su

lfu

r S

ou

thern

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wd

er

Riv

er

Basin

(“P

RB

”)

co

al

min

es

- N

ort

h A

nte

lop

e R

oc

he

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, A

nte

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ck

T

hu

nd

er

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ail

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ns

po

rta

tio

n:

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rlin

gto

n N

ort

he

rn S

an

ta F

e (

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)

R

ota

ry u

nlo

ad

ing

sys

tem

2

01

7 c

on

su

mp

tio

n:

~3

.0 m

illi

on

to

ns

Appendix K Page 107 of 138

Page 108: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

5

SP

S C

on

tra

ct

Info

rma

tio

n

T

UC

O,

Inc.

T

UC

O i

s a

th

ird

-pa

rty s

up

pli

er

res

po

ns

ible

fo

r m

an

ag

ing

co

ntr

ac

ts w

ith

co

al

su

pp

lie

rs,

rail

tr

an

sp

ort

ati

on

an

d c

oa

l h

an

dli

ng

.

S

PS

pu

rch

ase

s c

oal

fro

m T

UC

O a

t th

e p

lan

t b

un

kers

X

ce

l E

ne

rgy’s

Fu

el

Su

pp

ly O

pe

rati

on

s m

an

ag

es

th

e

TU

CO

co

ntr

ac

t

T

he

TU

CO

co

ntr

ac

ts e

xp

ire

on

De

c 3

1,

20

22

Appendix K Page 108 of 138

Page 109: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

6

TU

CO

Co

al

Co

ntr

ac

t In

form

ati

on

C

oa

l s

up

pli

ers

are

Pe

ab

od

y E

ne

rgy (

No

rth

A

nte

lop

e R

och

ell

e),

Clo

ud

Peak E

nerg

y

(An

telo

pe)

an

d A

rch

Co

al (B

lack T

hu

nd

er)

C

oal

co

ntr

acts

are

fix

ed

pri

ce

, te

rm a

nd

qu

an

tity

C

oal

su

pp

ly a

gre

em

en

ts a

re s

ho

rt t

erm

an

d e

xp

ire

befo

re t

he T

UC

O a

gre

em

en

ts

Appendix K Page 109 of 138

Page 110: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

7

TU

CO

Tra

nsp

ort

ati

on

Co

ntr

ac

t In

form

ati

on

T

ran

sp

ort

ati

on

T

olk

an

d H

arr

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ton

se

rve

d b

y B

NS

F R

ail

wa

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T

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Ha

rrin

gto

n r

ail

ag

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me

nt

ex

pir

es

in

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c 2

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T

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To

lk r

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ag

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ex

pir

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c 2

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2

In

clu

de

Mil

ea

ge

Ba

se

d F

ue

l S

urc

ha

rge

s

R

ail

ca

rs

R

ailc

ars

are

pro

vid

ed

by l

on

g-t

erm

lea

se

he

ld b

y

TU

CO

an

d e

xp

ire

co

nc

urr

en

tly w

ith

th

e T

UC

O C

oa

l S

up

ply

Ag

ree

me

nts

Appendix K Page 110 of 138

Page 111: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

8

Po

wd

er

Riv

er

Basin

8

R

ou

gh

ly 3

00m

i x

10

0 m

i

U

SG

S

1

40

b t

on

s o

f re

so

urc

es

in

a

rea

s o

f m

os

t in

tere

st

7

7b

to

ns

in

G

ille

tte

C

oa

lfie

ld a

lon

e

8

Appendix K Page 111 of 138

Page 112: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

9

Pu

rch

as

e S

tra

teg

y

C

urr

en

t m

ark

et

is a

pp

roxim

ate

ly $

12.4

0/t

on

fo

r 8,8

00 B

tu/lb

P

RB

co

al (f

ob

min

e)

K

ee

p r

ela

tive

ly l

arg

e o

pe

n p

os

itio

n t

o b

e a

ble

to

rea

ct

to

ch

an

ges in

syste

m o

pera

tio

ns

T

arg

et

is b

y D

ecem

ber,

pu

rch

ase ~

75%

of

up

co

min

g y

ear

req

uir

em

en

ts, ~

40%

fo

r 2

nd y

ear

an

d ~

20%

fo

r 3

rd y

ear.

789

10

11

12

13

14

15

1-J

an-1

41

-Ja

n-1

51

-Ja

n-1

61

-Ja

n-1

71

-Ja

n-1

8

Pro

mpt M

onth

8800 B

tu P

rice (

$/t

on)

Appendix K Page 112 of 138

Page 113: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Qu

es

tio

ns

an

d/o

r D

iscu

ssio

n?

10

Appendix K Page 113 of 138

Page 114: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

11

Appendix K Page 114 of 138

Page 115: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

En

erg

y S

tora

ge O

verv

iew

SP

S N

ew

Mexic

o I

RP

Public

Advis

ory

Meeting

May 3

1,

2018

Appendix K Page 115 of 138

Page 116: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Lea

d t

he

C

lean

En

erg

y

Tra

nsitio

n

En

ha

nce

C

usto

me

r E

xperience

Ke

ep

Bill

s

Low

Appendix K Page 116 of 138

Page 118: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

En

erg

y S

tora

ge

Appendix K Page 118 of 138

Page 119: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

What is

Energ

y S

tora

ge?

De

fin

itio

n

•Te

ch

no

log

y c

ap

ab

le o

f sto

rin

g p

revio

usly

ge

ne

rate

d e

lectr

ic e

ne

rgy a

nd

re

lea

sin

g it a

t a

late

r tim

e.

•C

an o

ccur

as p

ote

ntial, k

inetic, chem

ical, o

r

the

rma

l e

ne

rgy.

•R

ele

ase

of e

ne

rgy c

an

be

in

fo

rms th

at in

clu

de

ele

ctr

icity,

ga

s, th

erm

al e

ne

rgy a

nd

oth

er

en

erg

y c

arr

iers

.

•C

an

be

de

plo

ye

d in

all

pa

rts o

f th

e g

rid

– h

elp

s

to e

na

ble

a s

ma

rte

r, s

tro

ng

er, c

lea

ne

r, a

nd

mo

re r

elia

ble

en

erg

y g

rid

fo

r a

ll cu

sto

me

rs.

Asset

Cate

go

ries

•E

lectr

ic g

enera

tion

asset

•T

ransm

issio

n a

sset

•D

istr

ibution a

sset

•D

SM

asset

Us

es

•C

ap

acity

•F

lexib

ility

•R

elia

bili

ty/r

esili

ency

•M

icro

grid

s a

nd

co

mm

un

ity p

roje

cts

Tech

no

log

ies

So

lid

sta

te b

att

eri

es:

Ele

ctr

ochem

ical

sto

rage,

inclu

din

g a

dvance

d c

hem

istr

y b

att

eries

and c

apacitato

rs –

sodiu

m s

ulfur, lead a

cid

,

lithiu

m ion

Flo

w b

att

eri

es:

En

erg

y is s

tore

d

in e

lectr

oly

te

solu

tion f

or

longer

life c

ycle

and q

uic

k r

esponse

Fly

wh

eels

: M

echanic

al devic

es t

hat harn

ess

rota

tional energ

y t

o d

eliv

er

insta

nta

neous

ele

ctr

icity

Co

mp

ressed

air

en

erg

y

sto

rag

e:

Com

pre

ssed a

ir is u

sed t

o c

reate

a p

ote

nt

energ

y r

eserv

e

Th

erm

al:

Heat

and c

old

are

captu

red t

o c

reate

energ

y o

n d

em

and

Pu

mp

ed

hyd

ro p

ow

er:

Larg

e s

cale

reserv

oirs

of energ

y a

re c

reate

d w

ith w

ate

r

Appendix K Page 119 of 138

Page 120: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Sto

rage T

echnolo

gie

s

Te

ch

no

log

y

Be

ne

fits

C

ha

lle

ng

es

A

pp

lic

ati

on

s

Lit

hiu

m-I

on

Ba

tte

ry

•E

ne

rgy d

en

sity

•P

ow

er

de

nsity

•C

ycle

life

co

nstr

ain

ts

•S

afe

ty c

on

ce

rns

Pe

ak s

ha

vin

g, T

&D

in

ve

stm

en

t

de

ferr

al, r

en

ew

ab

le in

teg

ration

,

an

cill

ary

se

rvic

es

Le

ad

Ac

id

Ba

tte

ry

•F

am

ilia

r

•In

exp

en

siv

e

•R

ela

tive

ly lo

w e

ne

rgy &

po

we

r d

en

sity

•P

oo

r cycle

life

•O

fte

n r

eq

uire

s m

ain

ten

ance

•E

nviro

nm

en

tal im

pa

cts

Be

st su

ite

d fo

r re

lative

ly lim

ite

d-c

ycle

ap

plic

atio

ns r

eq

uirin

g s

ha

llow

de

pth

of d

isch

arg

e s

uch

as b

acku

p p

ow

er

an

d lim

ite

d p

ea

k s

ha

vin

g.

So

diu

m S

ulf

ur

Ba

tte

ry

•H

igh e

nerg

y

de

nsity

•H

igh tem

ps r

equired

•L

imite

d p

ow

er

ca

pa

bili

tie

s

Peak s

havin

g, T

&D

investm

ent

de

ferr

al, r

en

ew

ab

le in

teg

ration

Flo

w B

att

eri

es

•D

eco

up

le p

ow

er

(re

acto

r siz

e)

fro

m

en

erg

y (

tan

k s

ize

)

•Im

pro

ved c

ycle

life

•L

ow

en

erg

y d

en

sity

•A

dd

ed

co

mp

on

ents

with

pum

pin

g

Pe

ak s

ha

vin

g, T

&D

in

ve

stm

en

t

de

ferr

al, r

en

ew

ab

le in

teg

ration

,

ancill

ary

serv

ices

Fly

wh

ee

ls

•F

ast R

esp

on

se

•H

igh

Po

we

r

•Low

Energ

y

•H

igh

se

lf d

isch

arg

e r

ate

s

Po

we

r q

ua

lity,

fre

qu

en

cy r

eg

ula

tion

,

win

d g

en

era

tion

sta

bili

za

tio

n

Co

mp

res

se

d

Air

En

erg

y

Sto

rag

e

(CA

ES

)

•R

elia

ble

bulk

sto

rag

e

•G

eolo

gic

ally

lim

ited

C

apacity/e

nerg

y s

erv

ices, ancill

ary

se

rvic

es, re

ne

wa

ble

in

teg

ratio

n

Pu

mp

ed

hyd

ro

•R

elia

ble

Bu

lk

Sto

rag

e

•G

eogra

phic

al lim

its

•C

ap

ita

l in

ten

siv

e

Ca

pa

city/e

ne

rgy s

erv

ice

s, a

ncill

ary

se

rvic

es, re

ne

wa

ble

in

teg

ratio

n

Appendix K Page 120 of 138

Page 121: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Sto

rag

e T

ech

no

log

y D

eve

lop

me

nt S

tatu

s

Appendix K Page 121 of 138

Page 122: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Ba

tte

ry a

s a

Bath

tub

•T

he s

ize o

f th

e t

ub (

or

reserv

oir in t

he c

ase

of

a p

um

ped h

ydro

fa

cili

ty),

and t

here

fore

how

much w

ate

r or

energ

y it can s

tore

,

dete

rmin

es t

he k

Wh

(b

att

ery

en

erg

y

cap

acit

y)

•T

he P

ow

er

Convers

ion S

yste

m w

ork

s lik

e

the f

aucet/dra

in in t

he t

ub.

It d

ete

rmin

es

how

quic

kly

the t

ub w

ill d

rain

and then

refill,

and t

here

fore

dete

rmin

es t

he k

W

(po

wer)

metr

ic

•T

he c

ost

of th

e t

ub a

s a

re

sourc

e c

an b

e

described in t

erm

s o

f $/k

W-m

on

th

(syste

m c

ap

acit

y c

ost)

•D

ura

tion is o

ne o

f th

e m

ost im

port

ant

drivers

of th

e v

alu

e o

f a p

art

icula

r sto

rage

syste

m (

ho

urs

)

Sto

red

En

erg

y (

kW

h)

= P

ow

er

(kW

) *

Dis

ch

arg

e t

ime (

hrs

)

Appendix K Page 122 of 138

Page 123: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Sto

rage C

osts

Exam

ple

Ba

tte

ry

$3

00

/kW

h*4

hr

= $

12

00

/kW

Inte

gra

tio

n /

Ba

lan

ce

of

Pla

nt

$2

00

/kW

Po

we

r C

on

ve

rsio

n S

yste

m

(PC

S)

$2

50

/kW

$1

65

0/k

W

for

4 h

r

Du

rati

on

Fo

r Il

lus

tra

tio

n O

nly

– n

ot

ac

tua

l c

os

ts

Battery

$3

00

/kW

h*2

hr

= $

60

0/k

W

Inte

gra

tion /

Bala

nce o

f

Pla

nt

$2

00

/kW

Pow

er

Convers

ion S

yste

m

(PC

S)

$2

50

/kW

$1050/k

W

for

2 h

r

Du

rati

on

Appendix K Page 123 of 138

Page 124: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Why E

nerg

y S

tora

ge?

En

erg

y s

tora

ge

ca

n b

e d

ep

loye

d in

all

pa

rts o

f th

e g

rid

, a

nd

ha

s a

pp

lica

tio

ns in

all

pa

rts o

f th

e v

alu

e c

ha

in.

Sourc

e:

Adapte

d f

rom

DO

E/E

PR

I H

andbook,

EE

I (g

raphic

)

En

han

ce U

tili

ty

Op

era

tio

ns

•A

llevia

te h

igh e

nerg

y

prices thro

ug

h tim

e

shifts

•R

educe t

he n

eed f

or

new

genera

tion

Pro

vid

e G

rid

Su

pp

ort

•R

eg

ula

te f

requency

•R

educe s

pin

nin

g, non

-spin

nin

g

and

sup

ple

men

tal re

se

rve

req

uirem

ents

•V

oltag

e s

upport

•B

lack s

tart

ele

ctr

icity r

esto

ration

•D

efe

r tr

ansm

issio

n

and d

istr

ibution

upg

rade

s

•R

elie

ve e

lectr

icity

cong

estion

•H

igher

pow

er

qualit

y a

nd

relia

bili

ty

•R

eta

il ele

ctr

ic

energ

y tim

e s

hift

En

han

ce C

usto

mer

Exp

eri

en

ce

FE

RC

RE

GU

LA

TE

D

ST

AT

E

RE

GU

LA

TE

D

T&

D

EN

D

US

E

Op

tim

ize P

ow

er

Syste

m

Appendix K Page 124 of 138

Page 125: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Wh

y N

ow

?

Deplo

ym

ent

of

dis

trib

ute

d e

nerg

y

resourc

es

Inte

gra

tion o

f variable

renew

able

re

sourc

es

Grid o

pera

tions

and g

rid

modern

ization

Resili

ency

impro

vem

ents

Polic

y c

hanges

Technolo

gy

advances

Cost

declin

es

Gri

d n

eed

s

Mark

et

an

d p

oli

cy d

rivers

Appendix K Page 125 of 138

Page 126: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Lith

ium

-Io

n B

atte

ry C

osts

•C

ost

declin

es o

f 70%

fro

m 2

010-2

016

•5-1

0%

annual cost declin

es p

roje

cte

d f

or

the n

ext

5-1

0 y

ears

Appendix K Page 126 of 138

Page 127: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Pro

jecte

d M

ark

et G

row

th

To

tal p

roje

cte

d d

ep

loym

en

t b

y 2

02

2: O

ve

r 2

,50

0 M

W

M

ark

et to

gro

w b

y 7

x f

rom

20

17

-2022

N

ea

rly h

alf o

f th

e m

ark

et is

exp

ecte

d to

be

utilit

y-s

ca

le

de

plo

ym

en

ts

A

ve

rag

e b

att

ery

du

ratio

n a

cro

ss a

ll se

gm

en

ts: 2

.7 h

ou

rs

•R

esid

ential S

tora

ge:

2-5

% o

f U

.S. additio

ns

•N

on-R

esid

ential S

tora

ge:

1-2

% o

f U

.S. additio

ns

•U

tilit

y S

tora

ge:

2-3

% o

f U

.S. additio

ns

Appendix K Page 127 of 138

Page 128: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

So

urc

e:

Ed

iso

n E

lectr

ic In

stitu

te

•R

TO

/IS

O A

cti

vit

y:

FE

RC

NO

PR

on s

tora

ge p

art

icip

ation in m

ark

ets

and D

ER

Aggre

gation,

MIS

O E

nerg

y S

tora

ge T

ask F

orc

e

•N

ati

on

al S

takeh

old

ers

: E

nerg

y S

tora

ge A

ssocia

tion,

Inte

rsta

te

Renew

ab

le E

nerg

y C

ouncil

(IR

EC

), A

dvanced E

nerg

y E

conom

y,

Energ

y F

reedom

Coalit

ion o

f A

merica (

EF

CA

)

Leg

isla

tive:

•M

andate

s/T

arg

et

•Tax C

redits/I

ncentives

•S

tudy/I

nvestigative

Pro

ceedin

g

•O

wners

hip

Rule

s

•P

eak-S

havin

g o

r C

lean

Peak S

tandard

s

Reg

ula

tory

/Rate

Desig

n:

•R

esourc

e P

lannin

g/P

rocure

ment

Requirem

ent

•G

rid M

odern

ization/D

istr

ibution

Pla

nnin

g P

roceedin

g

•In

terc

onnection R

ule

s

•V

alu

e o

f S

tora

ge/D

ER

•D

em

and C

harg

es

Na

tion

al S

tora

ge P

olic

y T

rend

s

Appendix K Page 128 of 138

Page 129: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Resid

ential batteries in X

cel E

nerg

y

se

rvic

e te

rrito

ry to

da

y

Re

sid

en

tia

l B

att

ery

Inte

rco

nn

ec

tio

ns

in

CO

an

d M

N,

(20

17-p

res

en

t) In

inte

rcon

nection

pro

ce

ss

Insta

lled

Sta

ple

ton

Pil

ot

wit

h S

un

ve

rge

Appendix K Page 129 of 138

Page 130: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Where

we a

re g

oin

g

Ba

ck

up

on

ly

Pre

-2017

TO

DA

Y

FU

TU

RE

Oth

er

op

tio

ns:

•R

ate

ma

na

ge

me

nt

•C

om

me

rcia

l D

R

•V

olu

nta

ry s

ola

r tim

e

sh

iftin

g

•In

terc

on

ne

ction

op

tio

ns

Pri

ma

ry u

se

fo

r

ba

ck

up

G

rid

Exa

mp

les:

•D

em

an

d r

esp

on

se

•R

en

ew

ab

le

inte

gra

tion

•D

istr

ibu

tio

n d

efe

rral

•A

ncill

ary

se

rvic

es

Cu

sto

me

r e

xa

mp

les:

•R

ate

ma

na

ge

me

nt

•B

ack-u

p

Pri

ma

ry u

se

ca

n b

e

sh

are

d b

etw

een

gri

d

an

d c

usto

mer

Inte

gra

ted

, o

pti

miz

ed

wit

h o

the

r te

ch

no

log

y

Appendix K Page 130 of 138

Page 131: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Uti

lity

In

no

va

tio

n &

Em

erg

ing

Tech

no

log

ies

Appendix K Page 131 of 138

Page 132: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Utilit

ies c

an

be E

ngin

es o

f In

no

va

tio

n

•S

ca

le n

ew

te

ch

no

log

ies to

th

e

be

ne

fit

of

all

cu

sto

me

rs

•L

eve

rag

e in

no

va

tive

ca

pa

bili

tie

s o

f th

ird

p

art

ies w

ith

utilit

y

sca

lab

ility

•S

erv

e a

ll cu

sto

me

rs

reg

ard

less o

f in

co

me

, lo

cation o

r cla

ss

•E

na

ble

s th

e

de

plo

ym

en

t o

f n

ew

te

ch

no

log

ies

Grid

as the

pla

tfo

rm f

or

innova

tion

Gro

w n

ew

m

ark

ets

equita

bly

to

serv

e a

ll cu

sto

me

rs

Optim

ize

tech

no

log

ies

and s

erv

ices

acro

ss o

ur

syste

m

Work

in

pa

rtn

ers

hip

w

ith t

hir

d

pa

rtie

s

Appendix K Page 132 of 138

Page 133: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Tie

d t

o S

tra

teg

ic V

isio

n

Inc

en

tive

s a

nd

Me

ch

an

ism

s

for

Inn

ova

tio

n

Inte

rna

l C

oo

rdin

ati

on

Sta

ke

ho

lde

r E

ng

ag

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t D

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to

Sc

ale

P

art

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ips

Str

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r U

tilit

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no

va

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n

So

urc

e: F

ram

ew

ork

ad

ap

ted

fro

m “

Pa

thw

ays fo

r In

no

va

tio

n”

(20

17

) fr

om

Ro

cky M

ou

nta

in In

stitu

te

Appendix K Page 133 of 138

Page 134: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Sta

ple

ton

Pa

na

so

nic

-

Pe

ña

S

tation

Re

ha

bili

tatio

n

and E

ffic

iency:

Ne

igh

borh

oo

d

Energ

y W

ork

s

(RE

NE

WS

)

Ele

ctr

ic

Ve

hic

le

Se

rvic

e p

ilot

CE

E

Ge

ota

rge

ting

Pilo

t &

De

mon

str

atio

n P

roje

cts

Appendix K Page 134 of 138

Page 135: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Pa

na

so

nic

– P

eña

Sta

tio

n P

ilot

•U

tilit

y-s

ited 1

MW

, 2 M

Wh L

ithiu

m-I

on Y

ounic

os B

att

ery

Sto

rage S

yste

m

•1.6

MW

carp

ort

sola

r P

V s

yste

m

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W c

usto

mer-

sited r

ooft

op P

V s

yste

m

•S

witchin

g a

nd c

ontr

ol syste

ms o

wned b

y X

cel E

nerg

y

•M

ain

op

era

tio

ns:

Mic

rog

rid

/Re

sili

en

cy,

Vo

lta

ge

Re

gu

latio

n, S

yste

m P

ea

k D

em

an

d

Re

du

ctio

n,

So

lar

Ra

mp

Ra

te C

on

tro

l, E

ne

rgy A

rbitra

ge

, F

req

ue

ncy R

esp

on

se

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icro

gri

d c

ap

ab

ilit

ies:

Du

rin

g a

grid

ou

tag

e,

ba

tte

ry p

ow

ers

Pa

na

so

nic

fa

cili

ty

•P

an

aso

nic

’s b

uild

ing

ma

na

ge

me

nt

syste

m p

rio

ritize

s e

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sa

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ba

se

d o

n

ba

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ry s

tate

of

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e a

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ecte

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ng

th o

f o

uta

ge

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an

aso

nic

’s 2

40

kW

ro

oft

op

PV

als

o a

ble

to

op

era

te

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0%

of

ba

tte

ry c

ap

acity r

ese

rve

d f

or

Pa

na

so

nic

Appendix K Page 135 of 138

Page 136: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Com

munity E

nerg

y S

tora

ge -

Sta

ple

ton

•Loca

ted in S

taple

ton n

eig

hborh

oo

d

in D

en

ve

r, C

O

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utilit

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d b

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s

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cu

sto

me

r b

atte

rie

s

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01

5: ~

18

.5%

PV

Pe

ne

tra

tio

n

Ma

in O

pe

ratio

ns:

–S

ola

r T

ime S

hifting

–V

oltage R

egula

tion

–S

yste

m P

eak D

em

and R

eduction

–E

nerg

y A

rbitra

ge

•Te

stin

g o

f B

TM

ba

tte

rie

s to

u

nd

ers

tan

d fu

ture

im

pa

ct o

f b

atte

rie

s

Appendix K Page 136 of 138

Page 137: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

Th

an

k y

ou

Ju

lia E

ag

les –

Pu

blic

Po

licy &

Str

ate

gy M

an

ag

er

julia

.h.e

agle

s@

xce

len

erg

y.co

m

Questions?

Appendix K Page 137 of 138

Page 138: Overview of Xcel Energy and SPS in New Mexico and Texas

•W

eb

Pag

e:

htt

ps

://w

ww

.xc

ele

ne

rgy.c

om

/co

mp

an

y/r

ate

s_

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d_

reg

ula

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s/s

ps

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inte

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pla

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No

te: A

fte

r n

avig

atin

g to

th

e w

eb

pa

ge

, in

th

e u

pp

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ft-h

and

co

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f th

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, m

ake

su

re th

at “N

ew

Me

xic

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is s

ele

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d. C

lick o

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dvis

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Me

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k o

n th

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k fo

r th

e fifth

me

etin

g

• A

sh

ley G

ibb

on

s a

nd

Ben

Els

ey –

Xcel E

nerg

y/S

PS

Co

nta

ct

–A

ddre

ss:

1800 L

arim

er

Str

eet,

Suite 7

00, D

enver,

CO

80202

–P

hone: A

shle

y (

303)5

71-2

813,

Ben (

303)5

71-6

705

–E

mail:

ashle

y.gib

bons@

xcele

nerg

y.co

m

ben.r

.els

ey@

xcele

nerg

y.co

m

IRP

In

form

ati

on

35

Appendix K Page 138 of 138