overview of the 2006 nasa modeling, analysis and prediction project map’ 06: in support of nasa
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Overview of the 2006 NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction Project MAP’ 06: In Support of NASA Earth Science and Technology Bill Lapenta (NASA/MSFC) Michele Rienecker (GMAO/GSFC) Mike Seablom (SIVO/GSFC) Updated July 2006. NASA Conducts Observation Driven Modeling…. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Overview of the 2006 NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction Project
MAP’ 06:
In Support of NASA
Earth Science and Technology
Bill Lapenta (NASA/MSFC)
Michele Rienecker (GMAO/GSFC)Mike Seablom (SIVO/GSFC)
Updated July 2006
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Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Satellites provide global coverage of Earth system parameters
Satellites characterize variability at seasonal-to-interannual timescales
Satellites provide information to initialize and validate coupled model systems
NASA emphasizes the optimal use of these data for analysis and prediction
NASA Conducts Observation Driven Modeling….
• Improved scientific understanding
• Hypothesis testing
• Prediction
Models used for:
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Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
The 2006 NASA Modeling and Analysis Project
Objective: Application of NASA’s satellite remote sensing technologies and earth system modeling capabilities to improve understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones
Science Questions:Can satellite data assimilation improve prediction (out to 5 days) of
easterly waves, tropical cyclogenesis and hurricanes?
What impact is gained with increased model resolution?
What role do aerosols play in tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic basin?
What roles do land – ocean – atmosphere interactions play in the structure and evolution of easterly waves as they propagate off the western African coast?
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Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
The Approach….Employ global (GEOS-5) and regional (WRF) modeling systems
Conduct data assimilation using GSI with GEOS-5
Satellite DA and model assessment/evaluation using multiple satellite sensors/missions (AIRS, MODIS, AMSU, TRMM, CloudSat/CALIPSO)
Conduct global assimilation and simulations during the 2006 hurricane season --- statistically significant assessment of performance
Run regional WRF on demand with GEOS-5 initial and lateral boundary data
Formed a Science Working Group to coordinate experiments and subsequent analysis
Enabled by NASA High End Computing
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Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Leverages off AMMA SOP-3 and will be based in Cape Verde
Multidisciplinary approach involving Weather, Water & Energy, Composition foci
Platforms: DC-8, Aerosonde, TOGA & NPOL radars, micropulse lidars
Partnering with European consortium, NOAA HRD
NAMMA-06 science in line with CCSP objectives
NASA Conducting Tropical Cyclone Campaign: N-AMMA-06
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Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Increasing resolution improves realism of forecasts of the details in 2-day Katrina forecasts
GEOS5: Realizing the power of Columbia
1 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution
0.25 degree resolution
0.25 degree resolution
1 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution
Verifying Analysis from NOAA/NCEP
Precipitation Rate
Sea Level Pressure
Columbia allows high resolution and rapid time-to-solution
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Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Regional modeling component a new addition for MAP06
Developed capability to initialize with GEOS-5/GSI analyses
Can run with ARW core with plans to include NMM
Focus on air-sea interactions with MODIS 1-km SST composites
Land-atmosphere interactions using the Land Information System (LIS) & cloud microphysics (GCE)
Conduct regional DA experiments
Cloud processes evaluation using Cloudast/Calipso
coolw
arm
SST
coolw
arm
coolw
arm
SST
Comparison of MODIS and RTG SST
RTG MODIS
Fields Interpolated to a 2-km WRF Domain
1km
High-resolution (enabled by LIS):-See small, medium, large cities-Demonstrate impact of EOS-era observations (e.g., MODIS) 1km
High-resolution (enabled by LIS):-See small, medium, large cities-Demonstrate impact of EOS-era observations (e.g., MODIS)
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Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Proposed MODIS SST Composite for MAP’ 06
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Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
WRF used as “Model of Opportunity”
Normal Ops•N-AMMA Region•Florida/Gulf Coast•CloudSat Overpass
Special Ops•Tropical storms•Hurricane-US coast
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Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Access to High End Computing
Test G5DAS G5, WRF G5DAS
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Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Visualization Techniques
Web-based VMS
HyperWall Technology
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Science Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
AGU Joint Assembly 23 May 2006
Summary Project focused on scientific issues
• Assimilation perspective—GSI framework• Assessment of FV dynamics within GEOS-5• Model assessment and evaluation• Includes process study perspective
Cross cuts several Interagency and NASA programs• Relevant to NASA-NOAA Research and Operations• Building links between JCSDA (NCEP/GMAO) and the NASA SPoRT
activities
Coordination with US-AMMA Activities• Provide support to N-AMMA• DA Sensitivity studies complement those proposed by J. Dunion at
AMOL/HRD
Provides supplemental track and intensity forecasts to TPC and FSU
Global and regional modeling PI’s working together on common scientific problems and interests