overview of options – an introduction october 2004 return to risk limited website:
TRANSCRIPT
Overview of Options – An Introduction
October 2004
Return to Risk Limited website: www.RiskLimited.com
Options Definition
• The right, but not the obligation, to enter into a transaction [buy or sell] at a pre-agreed price, quantity, time [by a specified date in the future], and terms.
• The option buyer typically pays the seller an upfront free (the premium) for the option rights.
Options Markets
• Over-The-Counter (OTC)– And Physicals Market, Tailored
• Exchange Traded– Standardized Terms– Style– Expiry Dates– Strike Levels
Basic Options Structures
• Calls – Options acquired by a buyer (holder) and granted by a seller (writer) to buy at a fixed price
• Puts – Options acquired by a buyer and granted by a seller to sell at a fixed price
Basic Options Structures
• All option products & strategies are some combination of buying or selling of calls or puts
Basic Options Provisions• Buy or Sell (Write)
– Long or Short
• Call or Put
• Underlying Asset– Product, Security / Instrument
• Strike (Exercise) Price
• Premium
• Exercise Date and Style
Basic Options Provisions - Strike
• Strike Price – Fixed price to be paid if option exercised, as specified in the options agreement
• Set in intervals on exchange traded options
• At any preferred level OTC
• How would you set the strike?
Basic Options Provisions - Premium
• Premium – Price of the option that buyer pays and seller receives at the time of option transaction.
• Consideration paid for rights
• Non-Refundable
Option Exercise Provisions or “Style”
• American - Style
• European - Style
• Asian - Style
• Bermudan - Style
• What is the impact on option value?
American-style Exercise Provision
• Buyer (Holder) may exercise at any time prior to expiry
• Value factor related to dividends on equity options
European-style Exercise Provision
• Buyer (Holder) may exercise only on expiry date
• Valuation difference
Asian-style Exercise Provision
• Class of options which have payouts dependent on the history of the price (some averaging basis) of the underlying asset during a pre-defined time period.– Average Price Options (APO’s)– Path Dependency, Barriers, Look-Backs, KO’s
• Potentially more complex price modeling
Early Exercise Of Options• Exercising an option prior to expiration date
• Would that be economically attractive?
• Provisions for automatic exercise of “In-the-Money Options”
Option Concepts
• Insurance Policy Analogy Commonly Cited
• Fee For Providing Financial Protection
• Transfer Of (Price) Risk
• Intuitive Pricing
• Real Estate Options To Buy, Extended By Property Owners
Volatility Factor
• Measure Of The Degree Of Change In The Value Of The Underlying Asset
• Historical Volatility
• “Implied” Volatility
• Very common jargon in financial trading
• Delta
• Vega
• Gamma
• Theta
The “Greeks”
V
The “Greeks” - Delta
• The Most Commonly Watched Factor Since Used In Delta Hedging
• The Degree Of Change In Option Value In Relation To A Change In The Value Of The Underlying Asset
The “Greeks” - Vega
• Measures Effect On Premium Of A Change In Perceptions Of Future Volatility – Vega Also Referred To As Kappa
• The Degree Of Change In Option Value Relative To A Change In The Price Volatility Of The Underlying Asset
The “Greeks” - Vega
• Vega Is Closely Followed By Traders Since Trading Options Is Viewed As Trading Volatility
The “Greeks” - Gamma
• The Rate Of Change Of Delta
• An Indicator Of How Stable Delta Is
• If A Position Or Portfolio Has A High Gamma, What Might That Suggest?
The “Greeks” – Theta
• Measures Effect On Premium Of A Change In Time To Expiry
• The Degree Of Change In Option Value In Relation To A Change In The Time To Expiry
• Becomes More Important Closer To Expiry
The “Greeks” – Theta
• Time Value Decreases At A Faster Rate As Option Expiry Date Is Approached
The “Greeks” – Rho
• The Degree Of Change In Option Value In Relation To A Change In Interest Rates
• Of More Importance In Very Long-Term Options
Delta Measurement Example
• If The Price Of Natural Gas Changes By 1 Unit
• And The Option Value (Current Premium) Changes By 0.4
• Then What Is The Option Delta Currently?
• So, What Does That Suggest?
Delta Concepts
• Delta Of An Option Approaches “0” As Option Moves Deep Out-Of-The-Money
• Delta Of An Option Approaches “1” As Option Moves Deep In-The-Money– Option Begins To Behave Like The Underlying
• Why Is That?
Complex Options Structures
• Path Dependent Options– Asians
• Combinations Of Options – Or Combos Of Options &
Other Instruments Such As Swaps– Embedded Options– Building Blocks
Examples Of Options Structures
• Extendables– Expandables– Double-Ups, Double-Downs– Simplicity of structure for buyer– A bit more complex for seller to price and trade
• Participation swaps
Decomposing A Participation Swap
• To Understand From A Pricing Standpoint
• And From A Trading / Hedging / Managing Standpoint
• A Swap With Option Embedded At Ratio To Produce Desired Participation & Pricing
• Components Hedged Separately By Trading Desk
When To Consider Using Options For Hedging
…rather than fixed price, fixed volume commitments
• When Underlying Exposure Is Uncertain Or Contingent
• When Option Pricing Is Viewed As Attractive
• When Weak Credit Standing Precludes Use Of Fixed Price Swaps, Or Other Instruments
When To Consider Using Options For Hedging
• When Competitive Business Position Dictates Avoiding Locking-in Costs– And Yet Price Protection Against Catastrophic
Price Change Is Sought
• When Seeking To Monetize Embedded Optionality Of Existing Position [Physicals]
When To Consider Using Options For Hedging
• When Seeking A Tool To Reduce Or Transfer Risk
• When Selling Puts To Generate Income, At A Strike At Which Writer Is Happy To Own The Underlying Asset
• Ultimately, When Exposures Dictate Using Options
When Do Traders Typically Use Options In Their Portfolios• When Pricing Is Viewed As Attractive
• When Seeking To Enhance Portfolio Income– To Play The Market With Limited Risk (No
More Than Premium Paid)
• When Attempting To Use Leverage To Increase Yield
When Do Traders Typically Use Options In Their Portfolios• When Systems And Trading Expertise
Provide Capability To Manage Complexity• When Seeking To Generate Income On
Holding Of Underlying Asset– Covered Calls
• Ultimately, When Exposures, Market View, And Trading Strategy Dictate Using Options
• Secondary Trading In Options– Rights Sold And Re-Sold
• Typically Not Just “Buy And Hold”– Frequently Traders Will
Exit Or Roll Positions Before Nearing Expiry
• IPE Sample Pricing– Web Example
Options Trading Strategies
Options Pricing SampleBrent Crude Oil OptionsCalls: With Underlying @ $28.99
Exercise
Price
Current Settlement
PriceImplied
VolatilityOpen
Interest
$28.50 85¢ 32.52% 440
$29.00 57¢ 31.93% 993
$29.50 37¢ 32.49% 201
Options Trading Strategies
• Straddles, Strangles• Butterfly Spreads, Bull Spreads, Bear
Spreads, Box Spreads, Calendar Spreads• Typically Used In Taking Speculative
Views On Future Market Price Moves– Not Usually Employed In Hedging Techniques– Configures Payoff Profile Consistent With
Trader’s Market View
Options Trading Strategies
• Straddles – Simultaneous Purchase And/Or Sale Of The Same Number Of Calls And Puts With Identical Strike Prices And Expiration Dates [Long or Short]
• Strangles – Simultaneous Purchase And/Or Sale Of Calls And Puts At Different Strike Prices
Options Trading Strategies
• Bull Spread – Simultaneous Purchase & Sale Of Calls Or Puts That Will Produce Maximum Profits When Value Of Underlying Asset Rises
• Bear Spreads – Purchase & Sale Of Calls Or Puts For Maximum Profits When Value Of Underlying Asset Falls
Options Trading Strategies
• Box Spread – Combination Of Bull & Bear Spreads Transacted Simultaneously
• Calendar Spreads – [Time Spreads] Purchase & Sale Of Calls Or Puts With Different Expiration Dates
Options Pricing
• Theoretically The Net Present Value Of All Potential Outcomes For The Option
• Various Methodologies For Determining
• Issues In Energy Options– Price Distribution– Price History– Illiquidity
Options Pricing Theory
• Black-Scholes Formula• Numerical Computational Techniques
– Monte Carlo
– Lattice Probability Tree Methods
– Bi-Nominal, Tri-Nominal Methods
– Assumes Price Follows Stochastic Process
Options Can Be Considered “Wasting Assets” That [Generally] Decline In Value Over Time. After Expiration Date, Becomes Worthless.
Black-ScholesOptions Pricing Model
• Developed by Fischer Black and Myron Scholes In 1973
• First Theoretical Options Pricing Model• Quantified Value Of Key Variables
(Primarily Underlying Asset Value & Price Volatility)– Basis Of The Model Is To Estimate Probability
That Option Will Finish In The Money
Black-ScholesOptions Pricing Model
• Derived From Observation Of Mathematics From Physical Phenomena (Heat-Exchange Equation)
• Widely Used, Extensively Studied
Black-ScholesOptions Pricing Model
• Assumes Price Of Option Related To Square Root Of Time
• Assumes Price Volatility Is At A Constant Level And Can Be Measured Through Standard Deviation Of Historical Prices
• Concentrated On European-style Options, Or No Dividends
Black-ScholesOptions Pricing Model
• Critical Assumption For Model– Stochastic Price
(Random Walk Theory)– Underlying Asset Price
Follows Lognormal Distribution
• Assumptions May Not Be Valid For Energy Markets
Adjusted Black-ScholesOptions Pricing Model
• Often Used Term, Also Referred To As Modified Black Model Or Extended Model
• Adjustment In Pricing Formula To Accommodate Alternative Assumptions– Black Model For Options On Futures, Rather
Than Stock– Assumes Lognormal Distribution For Futures
Adjusted Black-ScholesOptions Pricing Model
• Adjustment In Pricing Formula To Accommodate Alternative Assumptions– For Energy Presume Deterministic & Random
Price Components– Deterministic Component Follows Mean
Reversion To Reflect Seasonality Feature– Random Price Component As Lognormal
Monte Carlo Methodology
• Simulation Of Possible Outcomes
• Probability Assessment
• Various Methodologies
• Computer Resource Intensive
Options Price Simulation Based On Assumptions & Probabilities, Not A Clarivoyant Prediction…
Monte Carlo Methodology
Sp
r2d2Sp
r2u2Sp
r2duSp
Probability Of Outcomes…
rdSp
ruSp
Cox-Ross-Rubenstein Option Pricing Model
• Introduced Shortly After Black-Scholes
• A Binominal Model
• Constructs A Probability Tree
• Volatility Cones As Projections Of Volatility Into The Future
Considered Much The Same As Black-Scholes Model, Just A Different Methodology
Likely Factors Influencing Pricing Of Options
• Price Volatility Of Underlying Asset
• Duration Of The Option – Time To Expiration
• Strike Price Of The Option
• Value Of The Underlying Commodity [Or Financial Instrument]
• Risk Free Interest Rate
Likely Factors Influencing Pricing Of Options
• Terms And Conditions
• How Could One Impact The Price Of An Option Through Contract Provisions?
Physical Assets As Options
• In Terms Of Economic Valuation…• A Way To View The Value Of A
Production Facility– Such As A Power Plant
• A Call On Capacity– A Call Option
• Product Storage Facility– Such As Natural Gas Or Fuel Storage
Writing Covered Calls
• Covered In Terms Of Owning The Underlying Asset To “Cover” Option Position If Call Is Exercised
• Obviously Less Risky Strategy– But Commits Asset
• A Call On Production Capacity• A Call On Product Stored Or Owned
– Such As Natural Gas Or Fuel Storage
Optimizing Options Value Realized For Generation
• Retail Sales Are The Sale Of The Plant’s [Or Portfolio’s] Option Value
• “Struck” At The O&M Cost
• Fuel As The Variable Cost
• Spark Spread
Price Distribution
• Lognormal [Bell Shaped Curve]
• Skew
• Event Risk– Fat Tails– Probability– Degree Of Certainty
Returns On Basic OptionsPayoff Diagram
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Spot Price
Pay
off
Long UnderlyingAsset
Short Put Option
Long Call Option
Option Pricing
• Various Theoretical Pricing Basis For Options– Black-Scholes
– Merton Model
– Adjusted Black-Scholes
– Cox, Ross & Rubenstein
– Bi-Nominal, Tri-Nominal
• But Presumably Ultimate Market Price Determined By Supply & Demand
Option Pricing
• Theory Aside, The Practical Pricing Issues Can Sometimes Be A Bit Difficult
Option Pricing
• Valuation
• Price Discovery– Timing– Expertise– Basis
• Risk Free Interest Rate
Option Pricing Factors
• Higher The Volatility, The More Expensive The Option
• Longer The Life Of The Option, The More Expensive The Option
Historical Volatility
• Historical Volatility Is Determined From Past Price Data
– Selection Of Appropriate Time Period
• Historical Volatility Can Be Estimated By Calculating The Square Root Of Variance
Implied Volatility
• Implied Volatility Is Determined Mathematically From Option Pricing Formulas When Premium Is Known
• Implied Volatility Is Closely Watched By Traders
• Reflects Market Perceptions Of Future Volatility, Not Necessarily Historical Levels
Average Price Options
• Averaging The Underlying Asset Price Smoothes The Volatility– Highs & Lows Can Cancel Each Other Out– So APO’s Tend To Be Cheaper Than Standard
Options
• May Be A Better Match For Exposure Based On Daily Consumption Of A Commodity (NG)
Average Price Options
• Since APO’s Are Path Dependent, Option Writers May Use Monte Carlo Simulations To Estimate Value– Computational Techniques May Improve The
Accuracy Of These Simulations– Delta Hedging APO’s May Require Frequent
Adjustments Early In Option’s Life
Delta Hedging
• Dynamic Hedging – Using Futures To Hedge An Option Position
• Involves Frequently Buying And Selling Futures Contracts To “Re-Balance” Options Portfolio– Widely Used Technique
• Transactions Costs Consideration
Delta Hedging
• Delta-Neutral – Maintaining A Risk Neutral Position (Hedging)
• Requires Continual Monitoring And Managing
• Trading Expertise
Option Value
• At-The-Money
• In-The-Money
• Out-Of-The-Money
• Option Price Can Be Viewed As Comprised Of Two Components– Intrinsic Value– Extrinsic Value, Time Value
Option Value - Intrinsic
• Intrinsic Value Of An Option Is Simply The Amount, If Any, By Which The Option Is In-The-Money
• Profit That Could Be Realized If Option Were Exercised Immediately
• Easy Valuation
Option Value - Extrinsic
• Extrinsic Value Reflects The Potential Future Value Of The Option, Influenced Primarily By The Time Remaining To Expiry And The Price Volatility Of The Underlying Asset
• The Hard Part To Value
Option Value
• Deep In-The-Money
• Deep Out-Of-The-Money
Selling Uncovered Calls
• Naked Option – Sold When The Option Seller Does Not Own The Underlying Asset
• Risk Factor
Selling Covered Calls
• Option Sold When The Seller Owns The Underlying Asset
• For Example, A Power Generator Selling Calls On Capacity
• Opportunity Cost
Options On Spreads
• Price Distribution Is Likely Not Lognormal
• Price Spread Can Be Negative
• Complex Pricing Issues
• Refinery “Crack Spreads”
• Power “Spark Spreads”
Financial Risk On Options
• For Buyers Of Options, Risk (Of Losses) Are Limited To Premium Paid For Option– & Profits Are Potentially Unlimited, But…– …Be Careful…– A Very Deceiving Perspective:
PCA Example– Probability Assessment On Risk / Return Ratio
Financial Risk On Options
• As Writers Of Options, Financial Exposure Would Be Potentially Unlimited
• Profits Are Limited To Premium Received
• Is There a Situation Where One Would Write An Option?
Credit Risk On Options
• For Writer Of Options, Counter Party Credit Exposure Limited To Settlement Risk (On Premium Payment)– Generally Considered Minimal
• But Counter Party (Buyer) May Require Substantial Credit Support Such As Margin/Collateral, LC
Credit Risk On Options
• For Option Buyers, Credit Exposure Is Similar To Fixed Price Instruments, Such As Swaps– Level Of Counter Party Credit Risk Depends
On Market Price Risk, Which Is Theoretically Unlimited
– Know Your Customer / Counter Party
Using Options
• High Potential Opportunity In Energy Options
• …But Potentially Very Dangerous If A Blunder Made– Numerous Areas Of
Possible Risk
Overview of Options An Introduction