overview, convergence, and linkages · 50 tokyo/yokohama japan 33,200,000 6,993 4,750 114 new york...

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Peak Oil and HealthMar 12, 2009

© 2009. Brian S. Schwartz

Overview, Convergence, and Linkages

Brian S. Schwartz, MD, MSMarch 12, 2009

Peak Oil and Health Conference

OverviewThe Convergence of Peak Oil, Climate Change, Our Built Environment, and

Declining Ecosystems

• Peak oil pathways

• Converging issues

• Peak oil linkages

• Peak oil and health

• Peak oil “mitigation”

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What is wrong with

this picture?

“In Units of Action, Not Just Talk, Oil is

Still King”New York Times

December 30, 2007

The Oil Age

What is peak oil?

Congressman Roscoe Bartlett will tell you why we know this.

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Critical points:1. Drilling more or using

enhanced recovery

technologies do not prevent

production declines

2. Net energy decline is actually worse

3. Even if we are incorrect about reserves by as much

as 30%, this just delays peak by a decade or so

4. Importers get hurt first and worst (oil price rises

economies of exporting countries grow they increase

domestic oil consumption when production declines

exports decline even more rapidly)

Petr

oleu

m p

rodu

ctio

n, M

b/da

y

Time

Petroleum dem

and

, Mb/day

You are here

Prices will rise

Economic Challenges Will Soon Be Here

Matthew Roberts will tell you about these issues.

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“Here comes $500 oil”

“If Matt Simmons is right, the recent drop in crude prices is an illusion - and oil could be headed for the stratosphere. He's just hoping we can prevent civilization from imploding.”

By Brian O'Keefe, senior editorLAST UPDATED: SEPTEMBER 22, 2008: 4:43 PM EDT

2005

What We Face• Climate change• After peak oil• A built environment highly reliant on cheap

and plentiful oil• Declining ecosystems, disrupted ecology• Accelerating biodiversity and species

losses

A complex set of interlinked challenges“Converging catastrophes”

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Challenge #1: Climate Change

IPCC Punch Lines

1990“The unequivocal detection of the

enhanced greenhouse effect from

observations is not likely for a

decade or more.”

1995“The balance of evidencesuggests a discernable

human influence on

global climate.”

2001“There is new and

stronger evidence that most of the warming

observed over the last 50 years is attributable to

human activities.”

2007“Most of the observed

increase in globally averaged temperatures

since the mid-20th century is very likely* due to the

observed increase in anthropogenic

greenhouse gas concentrations.”

… temperatures …

* Likelihood > 90%

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“… the pronouncements of the IPCC do not represent mainstream science, nor even good science, but lowest-common-denominator science – and of course even that is delivered at glacial speed. If the

IPCC says something, you had better believe it – and then allow

for the likelihood that things are far worse than it says they are.”

Tim Flannery:

Climate Change Realities• GHG emission trajectories over the past

several years have been worse than even the worst IPCC projections

• Ice sheet melting has been much faster than predicted

• There are concerns that several tipping points will soon be fully engaged – declining albedo, burning boreal forests, reduced rainfall in Amazon, melting permafrost, enhanced El Niño

• There is growing thinking that 450 ppm will not be safe for the planet and that we may need to get back down to 350 ppm (now at 392 ppm)

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Challenge #2: Declining

Ecosystems and Species Losses

Ecosystem Signals• Declining coral reefs• Loss of arable land,

desertification, deforestation

• Declines in soil quantity and quality (fertility)

• Declining fisheries• Very high rates of

extinctions• Declining aquifers and

other fresh water sources

Guardian

Great Barrier Reef

Fao.org

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Our Major Ecological Challenges Have Been Masked by Cheap Energy

• Losing topsoil? Use energy for fertilizers and food transport

• Running out of water? Use energy to drill a deeper hole and pump or desalinate

• Oceanic fish species declining? Use energy to trawl deeper and farther

• Getting warmer? Use energy to cool• Declining carrying capacity of ecosystems

Use energy to maintain capacity in short term• Sea-level rising? Use energy to build bigger

walls• International competition over resources?

Use energy to fight warsModified from McBay

Challenge #3: Our “Wrong” Built

Environment

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Cheap and plentiful oil

Reliance on automobile

In U.S., Inter-related Issues

Hyper-consumerism

Suburban“sprawl”

EXPENSIVEOIL

Industrialagriculture

For the past century or so …

1,2003,2673,903,000USADetroit1441,1503,3553,823,000USAHouston1491,1503,6444,146,000USADallas/Fort Worth1482,7504,32011,789,000USALos Angeles909004,4974,032,000USABoston176

1,1004,6615,149,000USAPhiladelphia1557005,0833,500,000USAAtlanta203

1,5005,4988,308,000USAChicago1264,7506,99333,200,000JapanTokyo/Yokohama502,0508,68317,800,000USANew York114

Density (people / sq Km)

Land area (sq Km)PopulationCountryCity / Urban area

Pop. Dens. Rank

Top 10 Metro Areas by Land Area

More generally, of the world’s 250 largest cities, 82 of the 100 least population-dense are in the

United States!

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America’s Other Problem

• Extensive sprawl around small towns/cities• The federal government created a new

category – micropolitan areas• 28M people (~10%) live in 577

micropolitan areas with 10K-50K population

Roanoke Rapids, North Carolina

• City: 17,000 in 8 mi2

• Micro area: 76,000 in 1,360 mi2

• 2,215 vs. 56 per mi2

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American Life is Utterly Dependent on Automobiles

• Americans drive much more than citizens of other industrialized countries

• Until recently, annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) had only ever increased

Houston• On average, Americans emit

two to four times more CO2per capita than citizens of other industrialized countries

• Housing values will be affected by changes in gasoline prices

“Suburbia has a tragic destiny. We spent all our wealth acquired in the 20th

century building an infrastructure of daily life that will not work very long in the 21st

century.”

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Peak oil

Use more coal

Worse climateimpacts

More droughts, floods

Less grain production

More land cleared

Ecosystemdegradation

Declining economies

Less $ for energy technologies

Rising prices

Politicalpressures

The Myriad Linkages – An Example

What is known about peak oil & public health?

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SUSTAINABLE

WELL-BEING

ECONOMIC

SOCIO-POLITICAL

ENVIRON-MENTAL

Essential Pillars

PEAK OIL

John Holdren: The three ESSENTIAL pillars of sustainable human well-being

Peak oil has the potential to significantly disrupt each of these.

Climate change

Ecosystems

Species losses

Diminishing resources

Geopolitics of scarcity

Energy issues

Financial issues

Social upheaval

Conflict

Competition over resources

Challenges Responses

Population morbidity

Population mortality

Outcomes

Refugees

(Workable solutions) (Sustainability)

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“This will affect everything in our carbon addicted culture. Its effects will have much more

important chronic impacts than acute climate change effects and its consequences are likely

to be unevenly distributed…”

“The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system … [that] will influence almost all aspects of our daily life.”

Germany, October 2007

2007

2009

Jeremy Hess, Dan Bednarz,

and Dan Barnett will tell you more about

these issues.

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Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH; Nicholas S. Kelley, MSPH

Two conclusions: “(1) the connections among the global just-in-time economy, energy availability, & public health are far more

extensive than almost anyone can imagine; and (2) the public health community has been

largely absent from this consideration and discussion of energy issues.”

Land use, housing & transportation

Economy

Public & social services

Food & agriculture

Energy Inputs Are Critical to All Aspects of Our Lives

In addition, oil and gas are used to make virtually everything we use in our daily lives

Adapted from John Kaufmann, Oregon Dept of Energy

Stuart Chaitkin will tell you more about these.

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Fuel shortagesOil & natural gas

Price increasesTransportation –

Manufacturing – Food

Economic impactsLess consumer spending –Business failure – Hardship

for marginalized & vulnerable populations

Social impactsStress – Conflict – More

demand for social services –Less government revenue

Impact Pathways

OpportunitiesDemand for efficient products

& services

Advantage for efficient businesses & communities


Cindy Parkerwill tell you more about

these.

U.N. Population Projections to 2050

Best guess = medium linehttp://www.theoildrum.com/tag/population

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Oil30000

0

7500

15000

22500

Oil,

bar

rels

(M)

1600 22001700 1800 1900 2000 2100

8000

0

2000

4000

6000

Wor

ld p

opul

atio

n (M

)

1600 22001700 1800 1900 2000 2100

1000

3000

7000

5000

Population

Source: C.J. Campbell

Plots modified from Heinberg

APO and PopulationRobert Lawrence will tell us about peak oil’s implications for

food production.

With very high fossil fuel inputs to food production relative tofood calories derived (10 to 100 to 1), climate change impacts

on food production, and declining ecosystem services for production, what are the implications for populations?

“Some Pentagon officers have embraced planning around the "peak oil" theory … that the

world's oil production is about to plateau …Earlier this year, they brought … investment

banker Matthew Simmons to the Pentagon for a presentation … he warned that under the theory “energy security becomes an oxymoron.” ”

U.S. Military Launches Alternative-Fuel Push. Dependence on Oil Seen as Too Risky. By YOCHI J. DREAZEN. May 21, 2008 Page A1

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What about other energy options?

EROEI: Energy returned on

energy invested

Energy used to capture resources cannot exceed the

energy derived from those resources.


http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature

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To Maintain Industrial Society, Energy Must …

• Be rapidly scalable to needed capacity• Have a high EROEI• Be transportable, storable, energy-dense

– Oil is energy dense, infrastructures are in place• Be renewable

– If not, only postpones the problem (e.g., nuclear)• Be ecologically sane

– Oil sands and shales are not

Adapted from McBay

Stuart Chaitkin will tell you more about these.

Bad news …Many believe there are no

alternatives that meet all these criteria.

Economic conditions are likely to motivate considerablechanges in how we live.

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“A Harsh Reality”• Oil: Peaking in the next three

years, possibly already past peak• Natural gas: Peaking in the next

three to 13 years• Coal: Peaking in the next 13

years• Nuclear: Probably peaking in the

next 10 years, with many variables, but its use won’t increase substantially

2008

What Must Be Done?The Real New Deal – Post Carbon Institute 12/08• Make a massive and immediate shift to

renewable energy• Electrify the transportation system• Rebuild the electricity grid• De-carbonize and relocalize the food system• Retrofit building stock for energy efficiency and

energy production• Deal with transportation and land use • Relocalization, transition town movement,

development of community resilience

Lillian Shirley will address some of these.

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Conclusions• Serious concerns expressed by many competent,

unbiased professionals• Oil peaking will happen, timing is uncertain• Although focus has been on liquid fuels, supplies of

natural gas, coal, & uranium are finite too• The risks to economies, food, public health are very

large but have not been rigorously evaluated; and will interact with climate change & other problems

• Probably not possible to mitigate all risks now – too late• Due to costs and declining energy resources, we

probably only get one chance to get the next energy regime right

“My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a

Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover,

but his son will ride a camel.”

Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum (1912-90)Prime Minister of United Arab Emirates, 1979-90

Thank you

overview, convergence, and linkages · 50 tokyo/yokohama japan 33,200,000 6,993 4,750 114 new york...

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