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THE CITY OF NEW YORK OFFICE OF THE COMPTROLLER March 16, 2015 Overview - 4Q 2015

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Page 1: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

THE CITY OF NEW YORKOFFICE OF THE COMPTROLLER

March 16, 2015

Overview - 4Q 2015

Page 2: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

• Oil• China• US Federal Reserve

2

Stability

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 3: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

*Consultant long-term expectations as of 2011

Asset Class Index Fourth Quarter

Third Quarter

Three Year

Five Year Expected*

Equities - U.S. Russell 3000 6.27% -7.25% 14.74% 12.20% 8.30%Equities - Developed Intl MSCI EAFE 4.71% -10.23% 5.01% 3.60% 8.60%Equities - Emerging Intl MSCI EMF 0.66% -17.90% -6.76% -4.80% 9.10%Debt - Investment Grade NYC IG Credit -0.44% 0.30% 1.44% 4.27% 5.30%Debt - US Government NYC Treas/Agency +5 -1.29% 3.40% 1.55% 5.19% 4.20%Debt - High Yield Citigroup BB & B -1.70% -5.15% 1.49% 4.98% 6.00%

3

Market Returns: Q4-2015

Source: State Street

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 4: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15

4

West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) Crude Oil

Source: Bloomberg

USD

Mar-11-2016

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 5: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

6.000

6.100

6.200

6.300

6.400

6.500

6.600

6.700

6.800

Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-11-2016

5

USD / CNY Exchange Rate

Source: BloombergPrepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 6: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-11-16

6

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index

Source: Bloomberg

USD

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 7: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15

US VIX Nikkei VIX EURO VIX

Mar-11-16

7

US, Europe, Japan - Equity Volatility

Source: Bloomberg

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 8: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

“Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”

- Press Release Date: September 17, 2015

8

Excerpts from FOMC Meetings

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserves System

“In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.”

-Press Release Date: October 28, 2015

“The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen.”

Press Release Date: December 16, 2015

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 9: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15

UST 10 year UST 2 year Federal Funds Target Rate Mid Point Range

Mar-11-16

9

Federal Funds Rate, US Treasury 10-year, US Treasury 2-year

Source: Bloomberg

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 10: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

-

50

100

150

200

250

Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

High Yield Investment GradeMar-11-16

10

Investment Grade and High Yield Spreads

Source: Barclays

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 11: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

Starting Point: Oil Prices Decline

1. Energy Debt and equity prices weaken. 2. Concerns about

impact on the banks balance sheets.

3. Oil producing countries reserve de-cumulation, selling securities in developed markets.

4. Lower equity markets raise concerns about US and global growth.

5. Reduced employment and capital spending in energy sector. Deflationary and growth concerns pressure investment grade and high yield spreads wider.

6. Central Banks respond to lower inflation (largely oil) and weaker financial markets with additional QE and negative interest rates.

11

Spiraling effect of lower oil on broader asset markets

7. Monetary policy divergence leads to stronger dollar, pressuring emerging markets.

8. Additional pressure on bank stocks due to flattening yield curves and negative interest rates.

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 12: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

Asset Class Index Fourth Quarter 2015

YTD 3/11/16

Equities - U.S. Russell 3000 6.27% -1.52%Equities - Developed Intl MSCI EAFE 4.71% -4.16%Equities - Emerging Intl MSCI EMF 0.66% 0.85%Debt - Investment Grade NYC IG Credit -0.44% 1.82%Debt - US Government NYC Treas/Agency +5 -1.29% 3.53%Debt - High Yield Citigroup BB & B -1.70% 2.68%

12

Market Returns: 2016 YTD

Source: State Street

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 13: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW

Page 14: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

* Gross of fees in public asset classes

(SSB T, F p.18; P p.19; B p.13; N p.17)

NYC Pension System Portfolio Std Dev - 1 yr

Fourth Quarter Three Year* Five Year*

BERS 8.6% 3.1% 8.1% 7.4%TRS 7.2% 2.5% 7.5% 7.4%Police 6.9% 2.4% 8.0% 7.5%NYCERS 6.7% 2.1% 7.4% 7.3%Fire 6.5% 2.3% 7.7% 7.4%Median Fund - TUCS 2.3% 7.9% 7.5%

14

Total NYC Pension Fund Performance: 12/31/15

Source: State Street

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 15: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

15

Asset Allocation Fourth Quarter 2015 - Equity

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Source: State Street

Relative Mix to Adjusted New Policy Weights (SSB T, F p.10 P, p.11; B p.5; N p.9)

Page 16: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

16

Asset Allocation Fourth Quarter 2015 - Fixed IncomeRelative Mix to Adjusted New Policy Weights (SSB T, F p.10 P, p.11; B p.5; N p.9)

Source: State Street

Prepared by THE OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 17: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

17

Return – Total Portfolio

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Benchmark Portfolio Excess

bps

TRS

NYCERS

Police

Fire

BERS

Fourth Quarter 2015 (SSB T F p.24; P, p.25; B p.19; N p.23)

Source: State Street

Page 18: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

18

Excess Return – Total Portfolio

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added

bps

TRS

NYCERS

Police

Fire

BERS

Fourth Quarter 2015 (SSB T, F, p.14 P p.15, N p.13; B p.9)

Source: State Street

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 19: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

19

Manager Value Added- Total Portfolio

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Fourth Quarter YTD CY2015 CY2014

TRS

NYCERS

Police

Fire

BERS

bps

Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T p.24, P p.25, F p.24; B p.19, N p.23)

Source: State Street

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 20: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

20

Value Added – U.S. Equities

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Fourth Quarter YTD CY2015 CY2014

TRS - 34.3%NYCERS - 34.0%Police - 35.7%Fire - 30.9%BERS - 38.1%

Source: State Street

bps

Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T, F, p.24; P p.25; N p.23; B p.19)

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Weights as of12/31/2015

Page 21: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

21

Value Added - Developed Equities

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Fourth Quarter YTD CY2015 CY2014

TRS - 9.0%NYCERS - 10.1%Police - 10.0%Fire - 9.9%BERS - 17.0%

Source: State Street

Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T, F p.26; P p.27; N p.25; B p.21)bp

s

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Weights as of12/31/2015

Page 22: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

22

Value Added - Emerging Equities

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Fourth Quarter YTD CY2015 CY2014

TRS - 8.2%NYCERS - 6.6%Police - 5.8%Fire - 6.3%BERS - 5.0%

Source: State Street

Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T, F p.27; P p.28; N p.26; B p.21)bp

s

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Weights as of12/31/2015

Page 23: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

23

Value Added - Emerging Equities

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Fourth Quarter YTD CY2015 CY2014

TRS - 8.2%NYCERS - 6.6%Police - 5.8%Fire - 6.3%BERS - 5.0%

Source: State Street

Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T, F p.27; P p.28; N p.26; B p.21)

Weights as of12/31/2015

bps

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 24: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

24

Value Added – Core 5+ Fixed Income

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Fourth Quarter YTD CY2015 CY2014

TRS - 18.5%NYCERS - 18.3%Police - 18.1%Fire - 19.8%BERS - 15%

Source: State Street

Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T, N, p.29; P p. 31; F p. 30; B p.23)bp

s

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 25: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

25

Value Added - TIPS

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Fourth Quarter YTD CY2015 CY2014

TRS - 2.3%

NYCERS - 3.3%

Police - 2.9%

Fire - 2.8%

BERS - 4.1%

Source: State Street

Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T, N p.29; P p.31; F p.30; B p.23)bp

s

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 26: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

26

Value Added – Economically Targeted Investments

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Fourth Quarter YTD CY2015 CY2014

TRS - 1.0%

NYCERS - 1.4%

Police - 1.1%

Fire - 0.8%

BERS - 0.6%

Source: State Street

Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T, N p.30; P p.32; F p.31; B p.23)bp

s

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 27: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

27

Value Added – Bank Loans

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Fourth Quarter YTD CY2015 CY2014

TRS - 2.6%

NYCERS - 1.9%

Police - 1.7%

Fire - 1.7%

BERS - 2.4%

Source: State Street

Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T, N p.29; P p.32; F p.31; B p.23)bp

s

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 28: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

28

Value Added – Fixed Income – High Yield

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Fourth Quarter YTD CY2015 CY2014

TRS - 4.9%

NYCERS - 3.7%

Police - 3.8%

Fire - 3.6%

BERS - 5.1%

Source: State Street

Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T, N p.29; P p.31; F p.30; B p.23)bp

s

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 29: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

29

Value Added – Convertible Bonds

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Fourth Quarter YTD CY2015 CY2014

TRS - 1.7%

NYCERS - 1.0%

Police - 0.7%

Fire - 0.5%

BERS - N/A

Source: State Street

Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T, N p.30; P p.32; F p.31)bp

s

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 30: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

30

Value Added – Hedge Funds

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementFor Investment Evaluation Purposes by Authorized Personnel Only – May Contain Material Non-Public Information

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Fourth Quarter YTD CY2015 CY2014

TRS - N/ANYCERS - 2.8%Police - 3.2%Fire - 3.2%BERS - N/A

Source: State Street

Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB N p.27; P p.29; F p.28)

Weights as of12/31/2015

bps

Page 31: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

PRIVATE MARKETS

Page 32: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

32

Value Added – Private Equity

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Excess Return Since Inception PME Benchmark: PME is the Russell 3000 Total Return Index as of 9/30/15

TRS - 07/08/99

NYCERS - 03/29/99

Police - 03/29/99

Fire - 03/29/99

BERS - 07/20/06

Inception Date

300bps Target

Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalentbp

s

The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the PME Benchmark for each respective partnership.OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 33: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

33

Value Added – Private EquityBasis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalent 2nd Qtr. to 3rd Qtr. (Agenda Book T, B N, P, F, p. 25)

Source: Consultant Quarterly Report For 2Q & 3Q 2015

TRS Since Inception-07/08/99

NYCERS' Since Inception -03/29/99

Police Since Inception-03/29/99

Fire Since Inception-03/29/99

BERS Since Inception-07/20/06

Q2 -50 -60 70 90 40Q3 41 20 150 180 198

-50 -6070 90 4041 20150 180 198

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

bps

Q2

Q3

300bps Target

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 34: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

34

Value Added - Infrastructure

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Excess Return Since Inception; PME Benchmark: 50% R3000 & 50% Barclays Agg. as of 9/30/15

TRS - 11/19/2013

NYCERS - 11/19/2013

Police - 11/19/2013

Fire - 11/19/2013

BERS - 11/19/2013

Inception Date

Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalentbp

s

The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the PME Benchmark for each respective partnership.

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 35: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

35

Value Added – Private Real Estate

-650

-550

-450

-350

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

Excess Return Since Inception; PME Benchmark: 50% R3000 & 50% Barclays Agg. as of 9/30/15

TRS - 12/6/2002

NYCERS - 12/6/2002

Police - 12/6/2002

Fire - 12/6/2002

BERS - 12/13/2010

Inception Date

Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalentbp

s

The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the PME Benchmark for each respective partnership.

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 36: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

36

Value Added – Opportunistic Fixed Income (OFI)

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Excess Return Since Inception; PME Benchmark: is the JP Morgan Global High Yield as of 12/31/15

TRS - 10/24/2007

NYCERS - 10/24/2007

Police - 10/24/2007

Fire - 10/24/2007

BERS - N/A

Inception Date

Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalentbp

s

The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the PME Benchmark for each respective partnership

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementPortfolio Returns Are Shown Net Of Fees

Page 37: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

QUESTIONS?

Page 38: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

THE CITY OF NEW YORKOFFICE OF THE COMPTROLLER

March 16, 2016

Risk Management

Page 39: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

Projects Included• Performed analysis that led BAM to implement a new accounting system

• Automated public market fee calculations - which enabled net of fee performance reporting

• Analyzed private market returns by comparing them to public market benchmarks

• Established securities holdings database which will enable BAM to build a risk reporting platform

2015 PrioritiesRisk Management’s Focus Was Operational Risk

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

Page 40: Overview - 4Q 2015...Excess Return – Total Portfolio-200-150-100-50. 0. 50. 100. 150. 200 Total Excess Return Asset Allocation Manager Value Added. bps. TRS. NYCERS. Police. Fire

2016 Priorities: Operational Risk InitiativesRisk Management will continue to focus on operational risk while developing market risk reporting capabilities

Holdings Reporting

• A new general ledger

• Daily mark-to-market of public market investments

Systems

• Trading system - enabling straight through processing of short term investments executed by BAM

• Customer Relationship Management System

• Cash Management System

Fee Transparency / Detailed Private Market

Reporting• BAM requires more detailed

(ILPA) reporting from GPs

• BAM will build the infrastructure needed to consume this new level of detail• Performance analysis

dashboard• Straight through processing

of ILPA based reporting

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

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2016 Priorities: Market Risk Initiatives

Enhance Risk Reporting Capabilities and Automate Rebalancing Analysis

Automate BAM’s rebalancing analysis

Create daily flash P+L reports

Generate weekly risk reports

Extended Risk Reporting Framework

Further develop securities holdings database and reporting tools

Mark-to-market ETI rate locks

Evaluate 3-4 comprehensive market risk reporting packages based on needs of:

Asset TeamsMarket Risk Team

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

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RISK REPORT DISCUSSION

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Value at Risk (VaR)

If a portfolio has a 1-day 95%VaR of $1.32B, that means that there is a 5% probability that the portfolio will lose more than $1.32B in value in a single day. In other words a loss of $1.32B or more will occur on average once every 20 days.

During 5% of the days the expected loss is greater than 0.84% or $1.32 billion

VaR estimates how much a given investment might lose in normal market conditions, in a given time period, 1 day

in our case

Example

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

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VaR (Continued)

• Losses on a portfolio that exceed the VaR should be expected – such losses are referred to as a “VaR breaks”

• VaR is not a “worst-case” loss

• The probability of a loss larger than the 95% VaR is difficult to estimate accurately and should be analyzed with stress testing based on long-term and broad market data

Combined PlanNAV 158,156,478,43595%VaR 1,321,051,69695%VaR / NAV 0.84%

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

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Component Value at Risk (VaR)

• Component VaR is calculated using the correlations between asset classes and their VaR

Component VaR is the change in a portfolio's total VaR that comes from removing a particular investment from the portfolio

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

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Component VaR (Continued)

• Negative Component VaR shows that the prices of certain fixed income investments are negatively correlated with the prices of other investments

• Such investments diversify the portfolio and reduce its VaR

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

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Tracking Error

• Tracking Error is a measure of active risk; it shows how closely a portfolio follows its benchmark

• Excess Return is the portfolio return minus the benchmark return

• Tracking error is the standard deviation of the Excess Return, in our case over the past year

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

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Total Fund Return and Tracking Error

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Benchmark Return

Realized Return

Tracking Error

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

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Sharpe Ratio

• The Sharpe Ratio is a measure of risk adjusted return - a higher Sharpe Ratio is indicative of a higher risk adjusted return

• The Sharpe Ratio is:

• The 1-year Sharpe Ratio of the combined investment portfolios of the five Systems is -0.03

• Every percentage point of volatility is compensated by -3 bps of return over the Risk Free Rate

Average of (Portfolio Return − Risk Free Return)Standard deviation of (Portfolio Return − Risk Free Return)

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

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Information Ratio

• The Information Ratio is a measure of the effectiveness of active management – a higher Information Ratio is indicative of a higher risk adjusted return

• The Information Ratio measures the risk adjusted Excess Return earned as a result of choosing active management. The Information Ratio is:

• The 1-year Information Ratio of the combined investment portfolios of the five Systems is -0.15

• Every percentage point of Tracking Error is compensated by -15 bps of Excess Return

Average of (Portfolio Return − Benchmark Return)Standard Deviation of Excess Return or Average Excess Return

Tracking Error

OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

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Expectations* and Realized Returns: Jan 2012 – Dec 2015

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Total DomesticEquity

DevelopedMkts

EmergingMkts

PrivateEquity

Real Assets Hedge Funds Core+5 High Yield /Bank Loans

TIPS Convertibles OFI

Expected Range

Expected Return

Realized Return

*Weighted average of consultants’ expectationsOFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management

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QUESTIONS?

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THE CITY OF NEW YORKOFFICE OF THE COMPTROLLER

This document was developed by the New York City Comptroller’s Office Bureau of Asset Management (“BAM”). The information contained in this Executive Appendix is confidential, may not be distributed to unauthorized persons, and may contain material non-public information pertaining to certain investment activities and portfolio companies. Federal, state, and/or foreign securities laws prohibit any person who has received such information from purchasing or selling such securities based on material non-public information or from communicating such information to any other person under circumstances in which it is reasonably foreseeable that such person is likely to purchase or sell such securities.

March 16, 2016

A Roadmap for ReformDeveloping a Stronger Bureau of Asset Management

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Roadmap for Reform: Initial Impressions

• Control Organizations Operational and integrated into fabric of BAM

Build Compliance, Risk Management, Internal

Audit

• 12 of 14 Funston Priority Recommendations being addressed now

Compare Existing Practices To Industry Leaders

• Leadership in place, hiring of new staff accelerating

Fill Multiple Gaps In Investment Leadership

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Roadmap for Reform

Strategic Plan for BAM

New Investment Process

New Controls Environment

New Support Infrastructure

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Roadmap for Reform: Standardize Our Due Diligence

• BAM Teams now use a common due diligence framework• Manager recommendations must be approved at weekly investment committee meeting

using standard BAM memo.

Standardize Our Due Diligence Process to Raise Efficiency and Quality Control

• All Private Asset Managers now required to submit detailed data on expenses.

Standardized Data Collection Enhances Transparency and Ability to Consistently Monitor

• Develop superior knowledge of our external managers• Increase management focus on staff development and new talent acquisition• Modernize asset allocation implementation and re-balancing process

Focus Investment Staff on Managing the System’s Portfolios with Greater Intensity

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Roadmap for Reform: Building Sound Controls Environment

• Instrumental in identifying operational process risks and potential data solutions.

• Beginning the process of improving risk monitoring and reporting tools

First BAM Chief Risk Officer joins

January 2015

• Integrally involved in standardization of documents, processes, forums, publications.

• Beginning process to deepen exception reporting

First BAM Chief Compliance Officer joins April 2015

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Roadmap for Reform: Re-engineering Our Investment Support Operations

Formed to modernize

administration, operations and

technology activities

Work with BOA to adopt streamlined fund accounting process

Implement electronic cash flow management system

Re-structure BAM into clear front, middle and back office groups

Assess technology needs and manage new software procurement and implementation

Create Key Performance Metrics and monitor with Standardized Operational Risk Framework

Introduce tracking tools to monitor implementation of recommendations

Strategic Initiatives

Group

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Roadmap for Reform: Re-engineering Our Investment Support Operations

March 2016

• Begin to build new support organization-reduce key person risk, restructure staff assignments, introduce technology solutions to improve institutional memory

April 2016

• Implement State Street eCFM-electronic payment authorization application

• Will improve controls and efficiency related to cash movements

May 2016

• Implement Bloomberg AIM-trading tool to improve controls by eliminating double entry

July 2016

• Convert to State Street General Ledger- eliminates dual recordkeeping and significantly streamlines reconciliation and general ledger processing

Summer 2016

• 1. Realign functions across Front/Middle/ Back Office- free front office personnel for manager evaluation, standardize operational due diligence, support robust risk and compliance reporting

• 2. Purchase and install new Risk Management Tools

By 12/31/2017

• 1. Purchase and install CRM system to maintain a robust database of all manager related due diligence activities2. Design and install new support infrastructure for alternative asset classes to improve accuracy and timeliness3. Purchase and install a new treasury management system to improve management and forecasting of cash balances

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Roadmap for Reform: Having a Plan to Implement

• Initial Budgets Developed for Fiscal 2017 Operations

Grant AmountTravel $240,856 Training $142,000 IT Systems & Other $2,243,433 Total Estimated OTPS NEEDED $2,626,289

Current OTPS Grant (no change since 2005) $462,845 NEW OTPS NEED $2,163,444

CORPUS IMPACT: Other Than Personnel Services

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Roadmap for Reform: Resource Requirements

• Initial Budgets Developed for Fiscal 2017 Operations

Staff Grant AmountCurrent Staff 48 $6,678,816 [$139,142]Total Additions Forecast 23 $2,636,000 [$114,609]

Authorized Additions 13 $1,267,085 Additional Authorization Needed 10 $1,368,915

CORPUS IMPACT: Personnel Services

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Organization Chart (Page 1 of 2)

Color Legend

Corpus Non-Corpus

Corpus Proposed

Non-Corpus Proposed

Hired 1/1/2014 or later

Promoted 1/1/14 or later

Starts after 3/16/16

Garland, MichaelAsst. Comptroller,

Pension Policy

Budhai-Robinson, Millicent

Dir., Corporate Governance

Elcock, AndrewInvestment Analyst

Taylor, MichelleSr. Investment

Analyst

Asare, MercySecretary

Khan, AmnaInvestment Analyst

Law, Emily (Pui-Chi)

Investment Analyst

Draycott, MilesChief Risk Officer

Posted Sr. Risk Mgmt.

Officer

Cowan, SanyaCompliance Analyst

Merseburg, JohnHead of Public

Equities

Dorsa, JohnAssociate Director

- Pensions

Pares, MoraimaIO - Public Equities

Gross, MarcIO - Public Equities

Chien, Mary AgnesSIA – Public Equities

PostedSIO – Hedge

Funds

Dunklin Jr., Alfred

IO – Hedge Funds

Pohotsky, TatianaSIO – Public

Equities (Group Leader)

Nikolova, PetyaHead of

Infrastructure

Lediju, FunmilayoSIA - Private

Equity

Enriquez, DavidSIO – Private

Equity

Morrow, Gabriel SIO – Private

Equity

Veloric, StevenDir., Trading

Division

Kaur, LakhbirTrader

Lent, LouisTrader

Nersten, BarbaraTrader

Nelson, YvonneHead of Real

Estate

Gluszak, JohnSIO - Real Estate

Hui, VictoriaIO - Public Equities

Londono-Valle, Janet

IO - Real Estate

PostedIA – Real Estate

Gayle, SandraCompliance Officer

VacantHead of Public Fixed

Income

Kroth, MatthewSIA - OFI

Pendarvis, MarkIO – Public Fixed

Income

Yeh, RebeccaSpecial Asst.

Boston, KimBoard Agenda Coordinator

Kopec, KamilSIA -

Infrastructure

Feng, Robert (Yi)Acting Head of Public

Fixed Income

Vickers, SusannahDir., Pensions

Exec. Asst. to the Comptroller

Evans, ScottChief Investment Officer /Deputy Comptroller, Asset

Mgmt.

VacantHead of

Opportunistic Fixed Income (OFI)

Barclay, KarenSIO – Public Fixed

Income

Cooper, ShermaIA- Risk

Management

Doñé, AlexGroup Head of Private Markets

Messing, NeilHead of Hedge

Funds

Zdrazil, ScottDir., Engagement

Bhatt, ShachiChief Compliance

Officer

Streiff, GregorySIO -

Infrastructure

PostedIO – Real Estate

Zheng, Lin FengSIA – Real Estate

Ferrara, LuigiIA - Private Equity

Guzman, JoseIO – Private Equity

PostedSIA – Public Fixed

Income

Radev, NikolaySIA – Risk

Management

PostedSIA – Private

Equity

Haddad, MichaelGroup Head of

Public & Tradable Asset Classes

Kadziela, EneaszIO - Private Equity

Next Page

ProposedPensions Analyst

ProposedCompliance Analyst

ProposedIO – Fixed Income

PostedIO – OFI

ProposedResearch Assistant

Haas, DanielRisk Management

Officer

Pulisic, WesleyActing Head of OFI

ProposedSIA – Risk

Management

Cook, BrianDirector, Economic

Development Bureau

Yan, JimmySpecial Counsel

Pak, ChristopherDir. ETI

Crowell, LaurenIO - ETI

Pierre, JosueSr. Financial Analyst

Schnaper, CaraExec. Dir Strategic

Initiatives

Jeter, DavidAsst. Comptroller for Asset Mgmt

Celaire, StephanieSecretary

Galayda, AnnaResearch Assistant

ProposedResearch Assistant

62

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Jeter, DavidAsst. Comptroller for Asset

Mgmt.

Bendes, MarshaDir., Investment Control

Todd, TianaAccountant

Towobola, MufutauUnit Chief - US Fixed

Income

Cassell, MarjorieMgmt. Auditor – Fixed

IncomeEmokpae, Augusta

Accountant – Fixed Income

George, KuriakoseMgmt. Auditor – Fixed

Income

Gutierrez, FrancisMgmt. Auditor – Fixed

Income

Loy, MeiInvestment Analyst

Monegro, BerkisInvestment Analyst – Fixed

Income

Patel, RavindraUnit Chief - US Equities

Frage, ArlyAccountant – US

Equities

Luu, NancyStaff Analyst – US

Equities

Man, SukMgmt. Auditor – US

Equities

Wossenu, KonjitAccountant – US

Equities

Hirsch, ToddInvestment Analyst

Hom, SusannaUnit Chief, International

Investments

Etwaroo, SeetamatteeSecretary

Lau, LilinInvestment Analyst

Chen, Xu Fen (Jessica)Mgmt. Auditor

Au, NancyUnit Chief, Alternative

Assets

Savage, IbrahimInvestment Analyst – Fixed

Income

Tsantker, OlgaInvestment Analyst

Eng, LouisInvestment Analyst

Ramos, VivianSecretary

Morrison-Goldfine, Susan

Special AssistantJaddah, Catherine

Secretary

Siavichay, GeorgeDirector, Financial

ManagementDresler, EvelynDir., Contracts

Guriel, AyaSr. Contract Analyst

Pye, NoreenSr. Contract Analyst

Wollman, EricContracts Assistant

Director

Richardson, LatanyaClerical Assoc.

Surujbali, Bibi Contract Analyst

Teran, AndresContract Analyst

Turenne, GilbertSr. Contract Analyst

Proposed Contract Analyst

ProposedMiddle office

Private Markets Shared Investment

Analyst ProposedDeputy Director -

Contracts

Evans, ScottCIO / Deputy Comptroller, Asset

Mgmt.

Schnaper, CaraExec. Dir., Strategic

Initiatives

ProposedIT Analyst

ProposedIT Analyst

Lett, MaryProject Manager

PostedSr. Fund Accountant &

Operation Manager

ProposedMiddle Office Manager

ProposedResearch Assistant

DeRosa, RobertInvestment Analyst

Thorpe-Clarrett, Denise

Dir. Financial Reporting

Lysse, YvenaFinancial Analyst

Color Legend

Corpus

Non-Corpus

Corpus Proposed

Hired 1/1/2014 or later

Promoted1/1/14 or

later

Organizational Chart (Page 2 of 2)

63

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QUESTIONS?