outlook on oil & gas sector sumit pokharna - kotak securities€¦ · excise revenue loss to...
TRANSCRIPT
Budget Analysis
1st February 2018Outlook on Oil & Gas Sector
23rd August 2018
Sumit PokharnaSector Analyst
Upstream Sector - Oil and Gas Exploration
“In some countries the government runs the oil companies and in many others the oil companies runs the
government”
What is Crude Oil?
Let’s start from the start…
Crude oil is a naturally-occurring substance found in certain rock formations in the earth.
Crude oil is classified as a hydrocarbon - compound containing carbon and hydrogen. It’s sister hydrocarbon is natural gas which is also extracted from earth.
The demand for crude oil is derived from the demand for petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel etc.
Oil is measured in barrels and Gas in mmscm/cubic feet
What’s in a Barrel of Crude Oil?
What differentiates Brent, WTI, Dubai crude?
Source: EIA/IEA
Analysis of higher margins & Competitive positioning
Why RIL GRMs is better than OMCs?
NCI--14
US$/bbl Product slate Cracks Product Cracks
Diesel (10 ppm sulfur or Euro IV) 44% 15.75 6.9
Gasoline 30% 10.7 3.2
Jet/Kerosene 4% 14.25 0.5
Alkylates 8% 12.84 1.1
LPG 0% -4.1 0.0
Naphtha 0% 0.5 0.0
Propylene 3% 22.2 0.7
Reformate 0% 17.4 0.0
Petroleum Coke 9% -45.8 -4.0
Sulfur 2% -45.8 -1.0
Wighted average product prices 100.00% 7.4
Crude Spread 7.6
RPL's theortical refining margins 15.0
Theortical refining margins based on product and crud Prices
NCI--11.4
US$/bbl Product slate Cracks Product Cracks
Diesel (50 ppm sulfur or Euro III) 40% 14.5 5.8
Gasoline 11% 10.7 1.2
Jet/Kerosene 8% 14.3 1.2
LPG 13% -4.1 -0.5
Naphtha 3% 0.5 0.0
Propylene 8% 22.2 1.7
Reformate 9% 17.4 1.5
Petroleum Coke 9% -45.8 -4.1
Wighted average product prices 100% 6.6
Crude Spread 5.7
Theortical refining margins 12.3
Theortical refining margins based on product and crud Prices
Around $2/bbl better margins due to crude spread
Source: Kotak Securities - Private Client Research.
Our view on Brent crude oil price
We remain bullish on international crude oil prices
“Never Say Never Again” (BRENT: US$ 147 / 28 / 73 bbl)
Brent crude oil price remains in a bullish phase and could spike to US$80-90/bbl due to
Geopolitical concerns
Supply shocks
Tight demand-supply balance amid declining production and
Sustained production cuts despite targeted moderation of OECD inventories
Socio-economic crises in Venezuela led to sharp decline in oil production
Sharp decline in oil production
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
Feb
-11
Jun
-11
Oct-
11
Feb
-12
Jun
-12
Oct-
12
Feb
-13
Jun
-13
Oct-
13
Feb
-14
Jun
-14
Oct
-14
Feb
-15
Jun
-15
Oct-
15
Feb
-16
Jun
-16
Oct-
16
Feb
-17
Jun
-17
Oct-
17
Feb
-18
Jun
-18
Venezuela oil production mn b/d
Source: Bloomberg
Geo-political Risk: USA sanctions on Iran will impact supply from Iran
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
Au
g-1
1
Dec-
11
Ap
r-12
Au
g-1
2
Dec-
12
Ap
r-13
Au
g-1
3
Dec-
13
Ap
r-14
Au
g-1
4
Dec-
14
Ap
r-15
Au
g-1
5
Dec-
15
Ap
r-16
Au
g-1
6
Dec-
16
Ap
r-17
Au
g-1
7
Dec-
17
Ap
r-18
Source: Bloomberg
Incremental global oil demand expectations of the key agencies (2018)
Incremental global oil demand expectations (mn b/d)
Source: Bloomberg
1.5
1.8
1.6
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
IEA EIA OPEC
International Energy Agency Crude Oil Demand World TotalWorld oil demand growth YoY (mopd) 1.22 0.95 1.84 1.53 1.57
mopd
Description 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Demand 91.92 92.87 94.71 96.24 97.81
OECD Demand 46.02 45.72 46.17 46.90 47.35
Americas 24.07 24.14 24.36 24.74 24.86
Europe 13.62 13.46 13.71 14.04 14.33
Pacific 8.34 8.13 8.10 8.12 8.16
Non-OECD Demand 45.90 47.15 48.54 49.34 50.46
FSU 4.72 4.92 4.87 4.71 4.80
Europe 0.66 0.67 0.70 0.71 0.74
China 10.26 10.64 11.31 11.85 12.45
Other Asia 11.80 12.10 12.60 12.90 13.30
Latin America 6.67 6.82 6.78 6.56 6.57
Middle East 7.91 8.04 8.18 8.27 8.25
Africa 3.89 3.98 4.11 4.29 4.32
Total Supply 91.40 93.70 96.40 97.00 97.40
OECD Supply 21.00 22.90 23.90 23.40 24.10
Americas 17.20 19.10 19.90 19.50 20.20
Europe 3.30 3.30 3.50 3.50 3.50
Pacific 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.40 0.40
Non-OECD Supply 28.60 28.90 29.30 29.30 29.30
FSU 13.90 13.90 14.00 14.20 14.40
Europe 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
China 4.20 4.20 4.30 4.00 3.90
Other Asia 2.70 2.60 2.70 3.60 3.50
Latin America 4.20 4.40 4.60 4.50 4.50
Middle East 1.40 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.20
Africa 2.20 2.30 2.30 1.70 1.70
Processing Gains 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.30 2.30
Global Biofuels 2.00 2.20 2.30 2.30 2.40
Total Non-OPEC 53.80 56.30 57.70 57.40 58.20
OPEC
Total OPEC 37.50 37.50 38.70 39.60 39.20
Source: Bloomberg
Global demand was higher than global supply in 2017
Demand-Supply dynamics
91.00
92.00
93.00
94.00
95.00
96.00
97.00
98.00
99.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
mb
op
dGlobal Crude oil demand Global Crude oil Supply
Source: Bloomberg
U.S. crude oil inventory levels
Despite meaningful jump in US oil production, inventory levels still remains lower
Source: Bloomberg
8.20
8.70
9.20
9.70
10.20
10.70
11.20
395
415
435
455
475
495
515
535
555
13-J
an
-17
3-F
eb
-17
24-F
eb
-17
17-M
ar-
17
7-A
pr-
17
28-A
pr-
17
19-M
ay-1
7
9-J
un
-17
30-J
un
-17
21-J
ul-
17
11-A
ug
-17
1-S
ep
-17
22-S
ep
-17
13-O
ct-1
7
3-N
ov-1
7
24-N
ov-1
7
15-D
ec-
17
5-J
an
-18
26-J
an
-18
16-F
eb
-18
9-M
ar-
18
30-M
ar-
18
20-A
pr-
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11-M
ay-1
8
1-J
un
-18
22-J
un
-18
13-J
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3-A
ug
-18
mb
op
d
Mn
bb
ls U.S. crude inventories (LH) U.S. crude production (RH)
Relationship between Dollar Index vs Brent Crude
Inverse relationship
Source: Bloomberg
85
95
105
115
125
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Dec-
14
Jan
-15
Mar-
15
Mar-
15
Ap
r-15
May-1
5Ju
n-1
5Ju
l-15
Au
g-1
5Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5D
ec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
r-16
May-1
6Ju
n-1
6Ju
l-16
Au
g-1
6Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6D
ec-
16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Ap
r-17
May-1
7Ju
n-1
7Ju
l-17
Au
g-1
7Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7D
ec-
17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar-
18
Ap
r-18
May-1
8Ju
n-1
8Ju
l-18
Au
g-1
8
Brent Dollar Index
Higher bond yields (%)
Keep a close watch–Negative for equities and other asset classes
Source: Bloomberg
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3N
ov-1
5
No
v-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
r-16
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-1
6
Jan
-17
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Ap
r-17
May-1
7
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar-
18
Mar-
18
Ap
r-18
May-1
8
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
US Treasury 10-year Yield (R)
Impact of rising crude oil prices on India
Fiscal
deficitTwin deficit riskCAD
Inflation
-
CPI and
WPI
Impact of
higher crude oil
prices on India
Bond
yields
Subsidy SELL OMCs
Currency
Depreciati
on
Source: Kotak Securities - Private Client Research.
Sensitivity Analysis – Crude oil and India’s GDP
Oil can hurt India’s GDP
Particulars Units
India's annual net Imports MMTPA 154.0
Assuming crude price rise $/bbl 10.0
Import bill rise $ bn 11.3
Nominal GDP at market prices $ Tn 2.8
Forex INR/USD 68.0
Sensitivity for every US$10/bbl move in oil to GDP (%) bps 41
India is a net importer of ~3 mn barrels/ day of crude oil.
India’s oil import dependence to oil consumption is 81%-83%. This makes us highly sensitive to crude oil price movement.
This implies a sensitivity of ~US$11bn i.e 41 bp of GDP for every US$10/bbl move in oil
Source: Kotak Securities - Private Client Research.
India’s rising crude oil import bill
Rising bill
143.0
112.7
64.0 70.2
87.6
105.0
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E
US$ BnIndia’s Crude oil import bill
Source: PPAC
Impact on Indian currency
Double whammy – Can INR go to 75?
INR/USD depreciated by 6.7% since April’18 due to trade war issues, Fed rate hike and rising fiscal deficit
Fiscal slippage likely ahead of the general election due to be held in April-May 2019
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
68.0
69.0
70.0
71.0
2-J
an
-18
8-J
an
-18
12-J
an
-18
18-J
an
-18
24-J
an
-18
31-J
an
-18
6-F
eb
-18
12-F
eb
-18
20-F
eb
-18
26-F
eb
-18
5-M
ar-
18
9-M
ar-
18
15-M
ar-
18
21-M
ar-
18
27-M
ar-
18
5-A
pr-
18
11-A
pr-
18
17-A
pr-
18
23-A
pr-
18
27-A
pr-
18
7-M
ay-1
8
11-M
ay-1
8
17-M
ay-1
8
23-M
ay-1
8
29-M
ay-1
8
4-J
un
-18
8-J
un
-18
14-J
un
-18
20-J
un
-18
26-J
un
-18
2-J
ul-
18
6-J
ul-
18
12-J
ul-
18
18-J
ul-
18
24-J
ul-
18
30-J
ul-
18
3-A
ug
-18
9-A
ug
-18
16-A
ug
-18
Source: Bloomberg
If the government takes the entire hit from hereon then it will impact fiscal deficit by 23 bp of GDP
What if government cuts Excise duty on petrol and Diesel
Impact of Rs.3/ltr cut in excise duty on Petrol/Diesel
Impact of Excise duty Units Petrol Diesel
Consumption pa FY19E Mn Ton 27.7 86
Consumption pa Mn Lts 39,149 103,985
Assuming excise duty cut Rs./ltrs 3 3
Excise revenue loss to Govt Rs. Mn 117,448 311,954
Total revenue loss on Petrol and Diesel Rs. Mn 429,401
Nominal GDP at market prices Rs. Bn 187223
Forex INR/USD 68
Sensitivity for Rs.3/ltr cut in excise duty on Petrol
and Diesel bps 23 Source: Kotak Securities - Private Client Research.
A crucial analysis of crude price movement and its impact on the bottom-line of various
players in O&G sector in India
Rising crude price Good or Bad?
Crude Price & Earnings SensitivityCrude Oil
Prices
Below $50/bbl At $50-60/bbl Above $60/bbl
OMCs uncertain,
ONGC benefits
Upstream realizations
are under pressure,
No under recoveries
for OMCs
Party time for Pvt.
Companies,
PSUs cries.
Upstream:
Lower realization.
Negative for ONGC, Vedanta
PSU OMCs:
Uncertain on earnings
as subsidy sharing
is unknown
Pvt: Realiz. boom,
refining margins Inc.
Risk: windfall tax.
OMCs: Higher marketing
Margins to offset pressure
on refining margins.Govt.
may cut prices
GAS: Spot LNG markets will be
hit. Negative for Petronet LNG
ONGC:Rising realization
offsets higher U/R.
Pvt Co’s:
Stable earnings
PSU: Significant rise
in under recoveries,
ltd. possibilities of
auto fuels price hikes.
Positive for: IOC, BPCL
HPCL, RIL, MRPL, CPCL
Negative for
ONGC, OIL India, Vedanat
Positive for: RIL, ONGC,
Negative for:
IOC, BPCL and HPCL.
Positive for: Vedanta
Selan, HOEC, PLNG
Negative for: IOC, BPCL,
and HPCL.
Source: Kotak Securities - Private Client Research.
Due to election heavy year, if the government caps retailfuel price hike and partly passes on some subsidy burdento OMCs then earnings will get impacted.
Traditionally, upstream oil co’s had to share the subsidywhich is sentimental negative for ONGC/OIL. However, webelieve CMP of ONGC already discounts US$45/bbl of netcrude realizations at current levels of global crude prices.
Also, higher domestic gas prices and weaker rupee will bepositive.
Higher bond yields may impact NIM compression for NBFCs.
Rising oil is also a negative for users of oil-based chemicals industry including consumer staples and paints.
Weak INR is positive for exporters.
Impact on companies
Brent crude oil price and Singapore Jet Kerosene (USD/bbl)
Jet prices increase is impacting margins of Airline companies. Weaker rupee against dollar will further add to woes. Higher Jet Kerosene prices will led to higher working capital, interest cost and higher operating cost.
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Ap
r-17
May-1
7
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar-
18
Ap
r-18
May-1
8
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Crude Oil (Brent) Singapore Jet Kerosene USD/Barrel
Source: Bloomberg
Kotak Securities - Private Client Group - Path: Login to www.kotaksecurities.com > Research > Equity Reports > Stock Recommendation Snapshot
Kotak Securities - Institutional Equities - Path: Login to www.kotaksecurities.com > Research > Equity Reports > India Daily Institutional Equities Research Report
Stock views
Price Latest Upside/
Name of the Company Latest as on price (Down
Reco ^ 20-Aug-18 target^ side) FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E
(Rs) (Rs) (%)
BPCL 376 375 (0.3) 37.6 38.7 10.0 9.7 20.5 19.1 7.3 6.9
Castrol India Ltd * * BUY 159 195 22.7 7.3 7.8 21.8 20.4 52.1 51.6 13.5 12.5
Chennai Petroleum Corporation BUY 305 373 22.4 64.2 67.7 4.7 4.5 22.2 20.4 3.5 3.2
GAIL (India) BUY 379 440 16.1 26.1 28.7 14.5 13.2 14.0 14.1 9.1 8.3
HPCL REDUCE 270 285 5.6 32.4 31.7 8.3 8.5 19.6 17.4 7.3 7.7
IOCL REDUCE 159 150 (5.5) 18.2 17.5 8.7 9.1 15.1 13.4 5.0 4.9
ONGC ADD 169 200 18.6 20.3 20.4 8.3 8.3 11.2 10.6 4.0 3.8
Reliance Industries SELL 1,235 985 (20.2) 69.5 78.0 17.8 15.8 12.2 12.1 12.0 10.2
Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL) SELL 191 182 (4.8) 11.2 11.0 17.1 17.4 11.7 10.5 6.6 6.7
Indraprastha Gas (IGL) SELL 284 257 (9.5) 12.1 14.1 23.5 20.1 20.8 20.6 13.5 11.1
Mahanagar Gas Ltd ACCUMULATE 923 1,030 11.6 56.7 59.9 16.3 15.4 24.9 23.1 8.9 8.3
MRPL BUY 81 106 30.3 11.3 12.3 7.2 6.6 17.8 16.9 5.0 4.6
Oil India Ltd BUY 206 245 19.0 27.1 28.0 7.6 7.4 9.7 9.7 6.0 6.0
Petronet LNG BUY 226 267 18.3 16.1 18.6 14.0 12.1 22.0 22.0 7.4 6.3
EPS (Rs) PE (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x)
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Research Analyst or his/her relatives has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research
Report: No.
Kotak Securities Limited has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: No
Subject company(ies) may have been client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
"A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at https://www.nseindia.com/ChartApp/install/charts/mainpage.jsp and http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes. (Choose a
company from the list on the browser and select the "three years" icon in the price chart).“
Kotak Securities Limited. Registered Office: 27 BKC, C 27, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai 400051. CIN: U99999MH1994PLC134051, Telephone No.: +22 43360000, Fax No.: +22 67132430. Website:
www.kotak.com/www.kotaksecurities.com. Correspondence Address: Infinity IT Park, Bldg. No 21, Opp. Film City Road, A K Vaidya Marg, Malad (East), Mumbai 400097. Telephone No: 42856825. SEBI Registration No:
NSE INB/INF/INE 230808130, BSE INB 010808153/INF 011133230, MSE INE 260808130/INB 260808135/INF 260808135, AMFI ARN 0164, PMS INP000000258 and Research Analyst INH000000586. NSDL/CDSL: IN-
DP-NSDL-23-97. Our research should not be considered as an advertisement or advice, professional or otherwise. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial
condition, suitability to risk return profile and the like and take professional advice before investing. Investments in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before
investing. Derivatives are a sophisticated investment device. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors before actually trading in derivative contracts. Compliance Officer Details: Mr.
Manoj Agarwal. Call: 022 - 4285 8484, or Email: [email protected].
Level 1: For Trading related queries, contact our customer service at '[email protected]' and for demat account related queries contact us at [email protected] or call us on: Toll free numbers
18002099191 / 1800222299, Offline Customers - 18002099292
Level 2: If you do not receive a satisfactory response at Level 1 within 3 working days, you may write to us at [email protected] or call us on 022-42858445 and if you feel you are still unheard, write to our
customer service HOD at [email protected] or call us on 022-42858208.
Level 3: If you still have not received a satisfactory response at Level 2 within 3 working days, you may contact our Compliance Officer (Mr. Manoj Agarwal ) at [email protected] or call on 91- (022) 4285
8484.
Level 4: If you have not received a satisfactory response at Level 3 within 7 working days, you may also approach CEO (Mr. Kamlesh Rao) at [email protected] or call on 91- (022) 4285 8301.