outlook for nickelalloys - :: international nickel study ... · 1 962 1964 66 1968 1970 197 2 197 4...

presented byMarkus A. Moll

Senior Market AnalystSteel & Metals Market Research

International Nickel Study GroupLisbon 22nd April 2008

Lisbon, Portugal

Only the SkyOnly the Sky …… is the Limit`is the Limit`

Outlook for NickelalloysOutlook for Nickelalloys

- 2 -INSG – Nickelalloys ‘08© Copyright SMI GmbH 2008

Enduse FocusedEnduse FocusedSingleSingle--Client ResearchClient Research

Executive SearchExecutive SearchKnow How Know How –– Know WhoKnow Who Shanghai Shanghai -- JuneJune ´́0808

Marbella Marbella -- Nov. Nov. ´́0808

MultiMulti--Client Projects & Client Projects & Stainless Steel SeminarsStainless Steel Seminars

Conferences in cooperation with

Type of ResearchType of Research ProductsProducts Steel GradesSteel Grades

Single Client90 %

MultiClient10 %

Long Products

50 %

FlatProducts

50 %

StainlessSteel70 %

Tool Steels,Eng. Steels,

Nickelalloys & Carbon Steels

30 %

MA

RK

ET R

ESEA

RC

HM

AR

KET

RES

EAR

CH

LOC

ATI

ON

LOC

ATI

ON

PRO

DU

CTS

PRO

DU

CTS

TEA

MTE

AM

Market Intelligence Market Intelligence for the for the

Specialty Steel IndustrySpecialty Steel Industrysince 1994since 1994

www.smr.atwww.smr.at

www.steelwww.steel--intelligence.comintelligence.com

www.steelwww.steel--executive.comexecutive.com1950

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e

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

'000

met

ric to

nnes

M.A. Moll P.A. Moll W.D. Bentley W. Lipp O. Spaltmann E. PfeiferR-P. HammerleT. Feichtner J. NormandeauB. BlitzBarry HunterAssoc. Scrap Cons.


AGENDA

1. Definitions, Basics & Market Structures

2. Producers

3. Focus on Aerospace

4. Future Trends


ALLOY TYPE MAIN ALLOYS MAIN APPLICATIONS

Electronic Alloys: Ni 205 NiFe 36NiFe 42NiCr 80-20

spark plugs, welding wireshadow masks, glass sealslead framesheating elements

Heat Resistant:330*600, 601800, 800H, 800HT, 825Calrod*

various furnace componentswelding wire, heat shieldsoil & gas industrytubular heating elements

HPA: A286*Inconel 718Nimonic 80AInconel 725Hastelloy X

manifold studsjet engines, gas turbines, oil & gasdiesel engine valvesoil & gasjet engines, structural components

Corrosion Res.: Alloy 200Monel 400: K500Incoloy 925Alloy 28*L 605*

battery casingsshafts pins, structural partsoil & gas industryOCTGSurgical Implants

Definition: > 30 % Nickel with some exceptions*

* < 30% Ni or Co-based


Global Production Volume 1989 – 2007e

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

e

in ´0

00 to

nnes

Global Production Volume 1989 – 2007e (finished products)Long Term Growth is Limited

G.R.: 2,8 % p.a.


Production by Product Form 2006 & split into 4 Alloy Groupsall in ‘000 tonnes (metric)

Total World: 272,9Europe: 84,4America: 90,9Asia: 67,5Others: 30,0

World 164,7 World 108,2

Total 52,6 Total 43,3 Total 36,7 Total 32,0 Total 60,4 Total 47,7Seamless Tube

All Products

Flat Products

Sheet / Plate Strip

Long Products

Semis WireBars

Corrosion Resistant Alloys

35%

High Performance Alloys33%

Heat Resistant Alloys10%

Electronic Alloy26%


Market Volumes 2006 Net Importers & Net Exporters of Nickel Alloy Products

-

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

met

ric to

nnes

Net ExportsDemandNet ImportsProduction

America

Europe

China

Other Asia

Other World

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AGENDA


2. Producers


4. Future Trends


SMC is again the No.1 Producer Worldwide Top-10 Producers control 75% of the Market

Top Producers of Nickel Alloy Flat & Long Products** (2007 estimated)

* incl. Industeel ** Final shipments (plate, sheet, strip, bar, wire, seamless tube), excluding castings

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

SMCVDM

Imphy

Allo

ys * ATI

Carpen

terSumito

mo

Nippon Y

akin

Hitach

iHay

nes

Daido

Sandv

ikFor

oni DN

Valbru

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ubishi

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ixon

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lloy

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2. Producers


4. Future Trends

Aerospace

Focus on …


Material Requirements

Source: Rolls-Royce


Rotating Parts ‘Premium Segment‘ Alloys are double Vacuum (VIM / VAR) melted or even Triplex (VIM / VAR / ESR) melted

Discs ‘Christmas Trees’ Blades


Non Rotating Parts Duplex Melting and sometimes even Air Melting is sufficient

Engine Mount

Rings Bolts &

Fasteners


Inconel 71878%

Others*7%

Waspaloy15%

*incl. CO based, Fe based & PM

Pratt & Whitney

Grades used by main Engine Producers

Waspaloy15%Others*

20%

Inconel 71865%

*incl. CO based, Fe based & PM

General Electrics Rolls Royce

Waspaloy11%

Inconel 72011%Others*

28%

Inconel 71850%

*incl. IN 901, RR 1000, C263, Others


Buy to Fly The alloy producer has to melt up to 10 times the component weight

Source: Rolls-Royce


Accident Rates: Only 2 % of all fatal accidents are due to Engine failures


Boeing* & Airbus Deliveries

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100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

e

Num

ber o

f Airc

raft

Del

iver

ies

Boeing Airbus

* & other U.S. producers

The Aerospace ‘Roller Coaster‘ Airbus beat Boeing 453 to 441. Total in 2007 => +7% vs. 2006

Order Backlog: 7.000 planesAnnual Roll-Out: max. 1.200 units

=> Industry is busy for 6 Years but ….… Problem: There is no Cancellation Fee!


AGENDA


2. Producers


4. Future Trends


Trends

Few New Grades: Alloy 718+ (Teledyne Allvac)

Is Nickel Substitution an Issue?

o Carpenter 30% Ni grade vs Nimonic 80A for Valves

o Clad Plate (var. Producers) & ‘Bubi Pipe’ (Butting) are booming

o Ti has re-gained applications (heat exchangers, sea-water

desalination)

Market transfer to China: Supply follows Demand

Industry Consolidation is Overdue


Electronics / Electric Appliances

20%

Oil & Gas15%

Chemical / Process Industry

15%

Aerospace21%Others**

7%Industrial Machinery

7%

Other Energy*7%

Nuclear1%

Automotive7%

Market Structure 2007 and Outlook Growth Trends to 2012 for Ni used in Nickelalloys

* LGBGT, FGB

** Marine, Thermal Process, etc.

12% of Prime Ni 3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

> 6%

> 3%

< 3%

CAGR


Nickel Demand in Nickelalloys … … will continue to grow substantially until 2010 – thereafter a phase of stagnation can be expected

-

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

in `0

00 to

nnes

Ni Use In Nickelalloys

CAGR + 5% + 40,000 t or

+ 25% by 2012


September ´08

Hear more Details at these events in 2008

June ´08

Our events in 2009:

February: Mumbai, India September: Düsseldorf, Germany

outlook for nickelalloys - :: international nickel study ... · 1 962 1964 66 1968 1970 197 2 197 4...

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