outlook – economy, stk mkt 1)earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to financial engr. 1)stock...

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Outlook – Economy , Stk Mkt 1) Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1) Stock buy-back 2) R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2) S&P P/E ratio is currently 20 3) Demographic change. Aging of population 4) Manufacturing Utilization Rates remains 79% 5) College loans to repay before 1 st house purchase 6) S&P P/E ratio is 20 vs an average of 14 7) China had a 30% Price run-up early 2015 (giving a P/E of +100) now those gains have been erased.

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Page 1: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Outlook – Economy , Stk Mkt1) Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr.

1) Stock buy-back 2) R/O expensive debt at lower rates

2) S&P P/E ratio is currently 203) Demographic change. Aging of population4) Manufacturing Utilization Rates remains 79%5) College loans to repay before 1st house purchase6) S&P P/E ratio is 20 vs an average of 147) China had a 30% Price run-up early 2015 (giving a P/E

of +100) now those gains have been erased.

Page 2: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

June study S&P layed by Dividend

• 50 top yielding stocks down 7% in 2nd Qtr• Next 50 yielding stocks down 5%• Bottom 50 yielding stock w/no dividend up 6%• Due to looming rate increase• Dividend paying Stocks got crushed • Dow Industries dividend yields increased 18%

over previous year’s June quarters

Page 3: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Projection• Since 2011

GDP has increased average of 2.1% S&P sales growth average 4.8%S&P EPS growth average 4.4%SPY has increased by 62% or 18% p/yr

• The SPY is flat so far the year I would expect the total market to increase 4% by year end.

• China’s growth rate will decline• As we saw the turmoil in Greece and China were both brought

under control.

Page 4: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Stock Recomendation

1) MLP2) Prior 10 years show two News Letters3) Nate – superior earnings growth4) Turnaround - recovery

Page 5: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Targa Resources NGLS

• Dividend Growth• 1st qtr 2011 $2.33• 1st qtr 2015 $3.28 growth +10% p/yr• Total Capital Exp - $800M Maint. -$110M• Does have exposure to lower commodity prices• Distribution growth slower in upcoming year • Distribution is 8.3%

Page 6: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Page 7: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Plains All America -PAA

• Dividend Growth• 2010 $1.90• 2015 $2.82 growth +9% p/yr• Total Capital Exp - $3,349M Maint. -$224M• Does have exposure to California Oil pollution• Distribution growth slower in coming year • Yield is 6.5% due to recent price declines

Page 8: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Page 9: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

ONEOK PARTNERS LP -OKS

• Dividend Growth• 2010 $2.20• 2015 $3.16 growth +8%• Total Capital Exp - $1,746M Maint. -$???M• Distribution growth 8.5% over last 5 years• Yield is 9.4% due to recent price declines

Page 10: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Page 11: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

123 Months Analysis N/P

• Nate's Notes Aggressive Avg 123 Mo’s

123 Mo’s buy Nov Sell May

1.8% 5.8%

• Turnaround Small-Cap 0.4% 4.4%

Page 12: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Nate Notes

• DIS – diversified entertainment• Electronic Art (EA) – multimedia & graphics

software• ILMN - Biotechnology• Currently rebounding AFFX, - Scientific &

technical instruments

Page 13: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Page 14: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Page 15: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Page 16: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Page 17: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Turnaround Letter• DW – Drew Industries recreational vehicles

• FRP – Pairpoint Communications

• LAYN- Layne Christensen (Heavy Constr.)

• PGEM – Ply Gem (Building materials)

• MHO – Residential Construction

Page 18: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Page 19: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Page 20: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Page 21: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

Page 22: Outlook – Economy, Stk Mkt 1)Earnings p/s increasing 2% p/yr due to Financial Engr. 1)Stock buy-back 2)R/O expensive debt at lower rates 2)S&P P/E ratio

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