The global economy is now growing at a rate of around 4% a year, but growth rates in di�erent areas vary widely. Among the industrialised countries, the United States and the United Kingdom are generating relatively high rates of growth. In the eurozone however, the recovery is still far from convincing. Economic growth is also

slowing in Japan, despite all the policy initiatives designed to combat this. The United States will also be one of the best-performing industrial countries in 2015 in terms of economic growth, the labour market and government �nances. The eurozone is also expected to show economic growth in 2015. The recovery

will be supported, or to put it more accurately, less hindered, by budgetary policy. This is generally less restrictive than it has been in recent years. Nonetheless, Europe continues to be the problem child of the global economy.

Attention in the �nancial markets has turned to the possibility of an interest-rate hike by the Fed. If we assume that the Fed will want to ensure that the economic recovery is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates, this will not take place until the end of 2015 at the earliest. The ECB has once again broken with various

taboos in the past year in its attempts to support the fragile economic recovery and ward o� disin�ationary forces. Since in�ation has remained stubbornly lower than forecast over the past year and expectations for in�ation in the medium to longer term have sharply declined, the ECB has come under increasing pressure in the

second half of 2014 to take additional measures. For this reason, resorting to a sizeable increase in the balance sheet through the purchase of government bonds (QE) has now become an almost inevitable scenario, unless a minor economic miracle happens in the next few months.

The prospects for economic growth for the Netherlands in our Outlook 2015 are the highest in the past four years. We expect economic growth to double in 2015 compared to 2014. Unemployment is falling, disposable household income is rising for the second year in a row and the recovery in the housing market will continue. Economic growth in 2015 will be somewhat less dependent on exports, and we �nally expect to see a rise in private consumption and investment in housing, as well as increased business investment. As a result, the economic recovery in 2015 will be felt more clearly in the domestically oriented sectors such as construction, retail and hospitality, and thus also in the labour market. It is very important for the economic future of the Netherlands that the Cabinet takes serious steps towards a new tax system in 2015.

Eurozone recovery still no reason for exuberant optimism

Key �gures eurozone

Will the ECB take over the baton from the Fed?

Netherlands: Better, but not good enough

Outlook 2015

Europe: future leader or eternal laggard?

%

1.5

0.5

-0.5

-1.5

-2.5

GDP volume quarter on quarter change

Dutch GDP volume, seasonally adjusted,actual development and Rabobank forecast

115

110

105

100

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

%

INFLATION

PRIVATE CONSUMPTION

IMPORTS

GOVERNMENT SPENDING - ½

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 1½ 1

PRIVATE INVESTMENT 55¼ EXPORTS 5

INFLATION

UNEMPLOYMENT

GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT

UNEMPLOYMENT

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

2015

2015

1¼%

11¼%

¾%

-2¼%

¾ %

6¼%

More info? Go to www.rabobank.com/economics

Real BBP

index index

110

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

92

90

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

United Kingdom

EurozoneJapan

5 year in�ation swap 5 year forward

6-10 year forward in�ation forecast Consencus

ECB Survey of Professional forecasters, in�ation expectations 5 year forward

United States110

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

92

90

2011 2012 2013 2014

€€ €

€€ €

€€€

Year-on-year change

Year-on-year change in %