Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan

(1-1501)

Risk governance with the collaboration of evaluation method and institutional options

Akihiro TOKAI, Takashi MACHIMURA, Takanori MATSUI, Naoya KOJIMA*Ibnu SUSANTO, Mianqiang XUE, Liang ZHOU

September 2nd, 2016Icho Kaikan Hall, Suita campus, Osaka University

Outline of Session 51. Introduction of our research PJ

2. Issue of the Sub-Theme 1 (ST1):“Categorization of chemicals and products, and stock estimation under the future scenarios analysis”• Kojima:• Xue:• Zhou:

3. Conclusion of ST1

3

Introduction of our research PJ

Concept Image of Our Research Project

Comprehensive Objectives 4

ObjectivesThe concept of risk governance reflect the actual environmental

measurements focusing on the chemicals/products management.The risk governance means cooperation between the risk management

legislation and the risk evaluation method for both of chemical exposure risk and induced environmental impacts.

GoalFirstly, we make a model construction for clarifying the risk-risk trade-

off structures. Target multiple risks are evaluated based on the volume of the representative chemical/products flow & stock.

Secondary, we apply the constructed model to the target district (Kinki district, Japan) for discussing and improving the reliability of the methodology.

Introduction of our research PJ

Outline of Session 51. Introduction of our research PJ

2. Issue of the Sub-Theme 1 (ST1):“Categorization of chemicals and products, and stock estimation under the future scenarios analysis”• Kojima:• Xue:• Zhou:

3. Conclusion of ST1

6

We picking up 3 representative combination of chemical & product from these 3 categorization.

1st category:

2nd category:

3rd category:

Issue of ST1

Three Case Study Based on the Categorization

Fig. Hierarchy of the chemical classification in our PJ

1. Chemical in spatialconstituent material EnvironmentClosed

space

3. Chemical directly usingfor cleanliness & comfort

2. Chemical in appliances foroperating & better performing

Laminated wood & adhesive, wooden material & antiseptic, bug repellent, and so on.Air-conditioner & refrigerant, home appliance & flame retardant, and so on.Detergent, biocide, spray perfume, and so on.

Risk Assessment of Buildings andChemicals for Housing Materials

Naoya KojimaDr. Eng. Assistant Professor

Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka U., Japan

Outline1. Introduction

General background, Preceding studies, Objectives

2. Material and methodModel construction of material flow and stock analysisfor risk assessment and LCA

3. Result and discussionHuman health risk, LC-CO2

4. ConclusionSignificance of connecting the material flow & stock with risk analysis

ProductsVolatile organic

compoundPathway Hazard / Impact

Guidelineconcentration

Since …

Adhesive inwooden material

Formaldehyde Inhalation Stimulation to pharyngeal mucosa 100 (μg/m3) 1997. 6

Toluene InhalationNeurobehavioral disturbanceDisorder of reproduction 260 (μg/m3) 2000. 6

Xylene Inhalation Affection of fetal neurodevelopment 870 (μg/m3) 2000. 6Ethyl bebzene Inhalation Disease in liver and kidney 3,800 (μg/m3) 2000.12

Adhesive inwooden material

Acetaldehyde Inhalation Disease in cavitas nasi 48 (μg/m3) 2002. 1

- Etc.

Table The guideline value of indoor concntration (MHLW)

Solvent incoating material,paint, …

General Background 9

1. IntroductionRef. 1) MHLW (2004), 2) MLIT (2003)

1st category: Chemical in spatial constituent material

Representative chemical risk in house: Sick-building (sick-house) syndrome MHLW1) set these guideline value for the hazardous chemical exposure.

MLIT2) restrict the amount of formaldehyde in laminated wooden using for housing, and required installation of the adequate ventilation system for reducing these concentration.

Preceding Studies and Objectives 10

1. Introduction

Nakanishi, Suzuki (2009)3)

Risk assessment based on measuring values

We referred their way of risk estimation using probabilistic distribution, based on many animal bioassay.

Ref. 3) Nakanishi, Suzuki (2009),4) Nakanishi, et al. (2007)

Objectives Model construction for risk evaluation based on the estimated chemical

flow & stock in products.

Thus model construction contribute to discuss the future evaluation under some scenarios, because the model consists many intermediate and controllable parameters.

Nakanishi, Suzuki (2007)4)

Risk assessment based on measuring values

They tried to construct model and compared between estimated and measured one.

Estimated one is under estimation than measured.

Function(t)(loss rate)

11

2. Material and Method

Material Flow & Stock Model

parametermodel/sub-modelLegend

Material flow & stock model

Demand of laminated wood (m2)

Risk assessment

model

Life cycle impactassessment model

Housingdemolish (m2)

Function(t)(loss rate)4,11)

Housing 9,10)

construction (m2)Housing

stock (m2)

Formaldehydestock (g)

Adhesive shipment (g)

Content rate (%) 5,6,7,8)

(Formaldehyde/Adhesive)Formaldehyde

/laminated wood(g/m2)

Environment

Target chemical & material flowFlow & stock in thelife-stage of producing In-flow to house Out-flow from house Stock in house

Stock

Ref. 5) METI, MOE (2003-2016), 6) Okuda (1971),7) Nishiguchi (1991) 8) METI (1970-2016),9, 10) MLIT (2016), 11) Omi, Kurita (2010)

0

40

80

120

160

Hou

sing

Dem

olis

h (1

06 m)

0

40

80

120

160

Hou

sing

con

stru

ctio

n (1

06m

)

12Material Flow & Stock: House

SRC: Steel-reinforced concrete, RC: Reinforced concrete

0

200

400

600

800

Stoc

k flo

or a

rea

(106 m

)

-1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 19801981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2014

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Stoc

k flo

or a

rea

(106

m)

-1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 19801981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Stoc

k flo

or a

rea

(106

m)

-1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 19801981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2014

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Stoc

k flo

or a

rea

(106

m)

-1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 19801981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2014

00.20.40.60.8

1

0 20 40 60 80

Surv

ival

ratio

(-)

House age (year)

SteelRCSRCWooden

Construction

Stock

Demolish

Survival ratio

Ref: 9-11), 12) MIAC (2016) 2. Material and Method

0100200300400500600700

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Adhe

sive

shi

pmen

t(kt

)

Urea resin Melamin resin Phenol resin

0

100

200

300

2000 2010

Adhe

sive

shi

pmen

t(kt

)

Urea resin Melamin resin Phenol resin

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0C

onte

nt ra

te o

fFo

rmal

dehy

de (%

)Urea resinMeramine resinPhenol resin

13Material Inflow: Formaldehyde in Adhesive

2. Material and MethodRef: 5-8)

0

40

80

120

160

Hou

sing

con

stru

ctio

n (1

06 m)

0

400

800

1200

1400

Formaldehyde on laminated wooden (mg/m2)

Demand of laminated wooden

In-flow

0

40

80

120

160

Hou

sing

con

stru

ctio

n (1

06m

)

14Result: Material Flow & Stock

Hou

seFo

rmal

dehy

de

From IndustryProducing stage

To environmentDisposal stage

2. Material and Method

0

40

80

120

160

Hou

sing

Dem

olis

h (1

06m

)

0

200

400

600

800

Stoc

k flo

or a

rea

(106

m)

-1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 19801981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2014

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Stoc

k flo

or a

rea

(106

m)

-1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 19801981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Stoc

k flo

or a

rea

(106

m)

-1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 19801981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2014

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Stoc

k flo

or a

rea

(106

m)

-1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 19801981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2014

0

400

800

1200

1400

Formaldehyde on laminated wooden (mg/m2)

0

20

40

60

80

Formaldehyde stock (t)

HouseUsing/Consuming stage

0

20

40

60

80

Formaldehyde includingdemolished house (kg)

15Risk Assessment Model

DALY: Disability Adjusted Life Years (Murray, Lopez 1996)DALY = YLL (Years Life Lose) + YLD (Years Lost due to Disability)

MOE: Margin of Exposure =

2. Material and Method

RA model for indoor air

parameter

model/sub-modelparameterwith distribution

Legend

Concentration(g/room/hour]

Volume(m3/room)

Floor area[m2/house]House ratio

wooden : not-wooden[-]

Materialflow & stock

model

DALY*, MOE*…

Ventilation(times/hour)

Hours in house(hour/day)

Formaldehyde/laminated wood

(g/m2)

Function (t)(emission ratio)

Information of exposure location

Osaka pref.

Wooden surface(m2/room)

Exposure(g/m3)

Risk evaluation

Ref: 3,4), 13) Murray, Lopez (1996)

NOAEL (No observed adverse effect level)EED (Estimated Exposure Dose)

16

Result and Discussion

Results of RA in Formaldehyde

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 50 100 150Cum

ulat

ive

prob

abilit

y (%

)

Formaldehyde concentration (μg/㎥)

0

20

40

60

80Formaldehyde stock (t)

Formaldehyde distributionto Osaka pref.

RA model

Analytical condition Evaluated the indoor concentration in the

wooden house, 2010, Osaka prefecture. “Age=0” means the indoor exposure of newly

constructed house. It is estimated the in-flow of formaldehyde.

“Age>=1” means the exposure of not newly, the average age of houses in Osaka pref.This is estimated the stock of formaldehyde.

Ref. 14) NITE (2006)

Wooden housing at Age >= 1Age = 0

Guidelineconcentration

Results of exposure concentration In 2010, 95%tile concentration in “age=0” was

62.2 (μg/m3). 95% tile of actual monitored value is 86.6

(μg/m3). “Age >=1” after emitting formaldehyde in 1st

year, the concentration was decreasing.

17LC-impact Assessment Model

parametermodel/sub-model

Legend

Material flow & stock model

Housing demolishfloor area (㎡)

(out-flow)

Housing constructionfloor area (m2)

(In-flow)

Stocked housingfloor area (m2)

(Stock)

Environmental impactin construction

Environmental impactin use and sustantation

Environmental impactin demolish/disposal

Resource input [t]

Life cycle impact factorsper unit floor area

by the building structures

Housing demolishfloor area (㎡)

(out-flow)

Housing constructionfloor area (m2)

(In-flow)

Stocked housingfloor area (m2)

(Stock)

Housing demolishfloor area (㎡)

(out-flow)

Housing constructionfloor area (m2)

(In-flow)

Stocked housingfloor area (m2)

(Stock) Types of building structure

Life-cycle impact assessment

Energy consumption [MWh]GHG emissions [t-CO2 eq]

2. Material and Method

GHG emissions [t-CO2 eq]

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

DAL

Y (1

03 DAL

Y/ye

ar)

Wooden house:NOT-Wooden house:

Construction Use DemolishConstruction Use Demolish

18

Kojima: Risk & LCI Assessment of Buildings and Chemicals

3. Result: LC-GHG Emission Different housing structure has the different

average lifetime and LC-GHG emission.

GHG emission in the use stage of not wooden house was estimated to increase. In Osaka-pref., the wooden house construction and stockhave been similar level from1995.

On the other hands, the not wooden house have been increasing since 1950.

Ref. 15) Iwaoka, et al. (2008) 16) Yokoyama, et al. (2004)

Future task This result estimated in the single LC-GHG

factors. For improving the reliability of LC impact assessment, we have to correct many impact factors for uncertainty analysis.

0

40

80

120

160

Hou

sing

con

stru

ctio

n (1

06 m)

Stock floor area (m2)Construction (m2)

Demolish (m2)

Structure Lifetime Life-stageConstruction 702.9 kg-CO2/m2

Use (in Stock) 50.8 kg-CO2/m2/yearDemolish 28.8 kg-CO2/m2

Construction 702.0 kg-CO2/m2

Use (in Stock) 92.7 kg-CO2/m2/yearDemolish 11.0 kg-CO2/m2

Life cycle impact factor

Wooden15)

NOT-wooden16)

90

30

19

Kojima: Risk & LCI Assessment of Buildings and Chemicals

Evaluation of Risk Trade-off

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 3 6 9 12 15103 D

ALY

(Glo

bal w

arm

ing)

103DALY (Indoor exposure)

1970

2014

DALY estimation

Reference17) Narita, et al. (2005), 18) Narita, et al. (2005) 19) Narita, et al. (2008) 20) Schryver, et al. (2008)

• Endpoint: mucosal disease, psychological symptom, nasopharynx cancer

• Endpoint: cardiovascular disease, diarrhea, malnutrition, natural disasters, malaria

• Midpoint: global warming• Midpoint: Indoor air contamination

ΔDALY = Indoorconcentration

disease (DALY)per exposure17-19) ΔDALY = CO2

emissiondisease (DALY)

per CO2emission20)

The risk caused by indoor formaldehyde exposure have been reducing with the counter-measures for sick-house syndrome.

The risk caused by GHG emission in housing construction, use, and demolish have been increasing with the residential stock increasing.

20

Kojima: Risk & LCI Assessment of Buildings and Chemicals

Conclusion of the Case Study 1 in ST1

Flow & stock model construction We could estimate the indoor air concentration of formaldehyde (stocked

formaldehyde) based on the macro statistical value of housing construction and formaldehyde shipment in Japan.

For this model construction, we could grasp the actual chemical stock not to depend on the actual measuring.

For evaluating other combination of chemicals & products, we should survey on the flow of upper life-stage (industrial section) and the function of their life-years.

Risk assessment and LC-impact assessment model Connected to the results of flow & stock I show the two kinds of risk

evaluation: human health risk of the sick-building syndrome and DALY evaluation related to housing construction, stock and demolishing.

These model including of various controllable parameter contribute to considering the effectiveness of countermeasures in all life-stages.

Thank you for your attention!

Q&A

22

23Results of Housing Stock

Appendix

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Stoc

k flo

or a

rea

(106 m

)

-1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 19801981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2014

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Stoc

k flo

or a

rea

(106 m

)

-1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 19801981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2014

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Stoc

k flo

or a

rea

(106 m

)

-1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 19801981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2014

0

200

400

600

800

Stoc

k flo

or a

rea

(106 m

)

-1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 19801981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2014

SteelRCSRCWooden

24Task for Future Scenario 1

Appendix

リスク-リスクトレードオフが生じるシナリオ設定の必要性1. 製品代替シナリオ

(木造→鉄骨造) の立案2. 製品代替シナリオにともな

う，目標/対抗リスクを評価3. トレードオフに関するリス

クの変化について考察行う。戸建て → 木造住宅

集合住宅→ 非木造住宅

表 将来都市シナリオに基づく戸建比率ならびに集合比率の設定

※単位 (-), 参考文献: 加藤ら (2004), 前田ら (2012) より

が主流

木造住宅で建築時CO2が少ない。

住宅構造 LC-CO2 ヒト健康影響

木造 小 大

非木造 大 小

25Task for Future Scenario 2

建築用国産合板出荷量

合板用途接着剤出荷量

建築着工にかかる環境負荷

室内暴露量

建物利用・維持あたり環境負荷

建築物解体にかかる環境負荷

寿命関数

放散曲線の推定

着工あたり環境負荷

資源投入量

建築物ストック床面積

接着剤中化学物質ストック

利用1年あたり環境負荷

LCリスク評価

ライフサイクル健康被害（LCIF)

建築物解体床面積

マテリアルフロー・ストック推計

LCA評価

リスク評価

リスク判定

将来シナリオ

国産木材輸入木材

輸入合板海外での製材工程(バウンダリー外)

建築物着工床面積

解体あたり環境負荷

建築物着工床面積

26RA using with system dynamic model