outline introduction: e-rtfdda new enhancement to e-rtfdda preliminary verification
DESCRIPTION
Integration of NCAR DART-EnKF to NCAR-ATEC multi-model, multi-physics and mutli- perturbantion ensemble-RTFDDA (E-4DWX) forecasting system. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
Integration of NCAR DART-EnKF to NCAR-ATEC multi-model, multi-physics and mutli- perturbantion
ensemble-RTFDDA (E-4DWX) forecasting system
Linlin Pan 1, Yubao Liu 1, Gregory Roux 1, Wanli Wu 1, Yonghui Wu 1, Jason Knievel 1, John Pace 2, Scott
Halvorson 2, Frank Gallagher 2
1NCAR/Research Application Laboratory2Dugway Proving Ground, US Army
![Page 2: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
1. Introduction: E-RTFDDA2. New enhancement to E-RTFDDA3. Preliminary verification4. Summary and future work
![Page 3: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
RTFDDA E-RTFDDA
![Page 4: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
E-RTFDDA Perturbation Approaches
LSM LDAS
RadiationPrecipitation Upper-air weather forcingVegetation …
Para
mete
rs
ETKF CyclingPerturbationsAnd scaling
GFS
Stat. perturb.Other. Perturb.
NAMECMWF
ObsDataAssimilationWeights
Perturbationsin components
may becombined
200+members
MM5
WRFPh
ysics
Sch
em
es a
nd
Para
mete
r p
ertu
rbatio
ns
![Page 5: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
E-RTFDDA Design and New Features
• Multimodal models
WRF-ARW, MM5, WRF-NMM
• Multi-boundary conditions
GFS, NAM, GEM
• Multi-physics
Major WRF physics parameterization schemes; Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscattering
• Multiple data assimilation
RTFDDA, 3DVAR, DART-EnKF
![Page 6: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Case description and experiment design
• 2012033118 – 2012040318
• Western US
![Page 7: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
GFS GEM
NAM
06 Z, April 1, 2012 (6h Forecasts)
DART
![Page 8: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
DART-ENKF Surface Observations
![Page 9: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
NAM GEM
Wind Speed
GFS DART
Wind Direction
NAM GEM
GFS DART
![Page 10: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
GFS GEM
NAM DART
Spread of U, valid at 20120406, 6h fcsts
![Page 11: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
GFS GEM
NAM DART
Spread of V, valid at 20120406, 6h fcsts
![Page 12: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
GFS GEM
NAM DART
Spread of T, valid at 20120406, 6h fcsts
![Page 13: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Combined spread
U
V
U
V
gfs+nam All
![Page 14: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
(need a meaningful title here!)
![Page 15: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Summary• NCAR E-RTFDDA is a multi-model, multi-physics, multi-
boundary conditions, multi-data assimilation scheme, mesoscale ensemble weather analysis and forecast system for real-time operational forecasting.
• In the present work, we introduces several enhancements to the E-RTFDDA perturbation schemes , using WRF-NMM, GEM, DART-ENKF and SKEB model and/or technologies.
• Initial tests show that these additional perturbation schemes work properly , and help mitigate the known underestimation of the E-RTFDDA spread.
• Currently we are implemented these technologies into the operational E-RTFDDA systems. Validation of the real-time forecasts will be conducted to further quantify the effect.
![Page 16: Outline Introduction: E-RTFDDA New enhancement to E-RTFDDA Preliminary verification](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070414/56814d99550346895dbaf2c8/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Combined spread
T