outline for today’s talk
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Indicators of Climate Change in Idaho: The intersection of biophysical change with social perception across a diverse landscape. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN IDAHO:
THE INTERSECTION OF BIOPHYSICAL CHANGE WITH SOCIAL PERCEPTION
ACROSS A DIVERSE LANDSCAPE
Authors*: Zion Klos, John Abatzoglou, Jarod Blades, Melissa Clark, Chistopher Currie, Megan Dodd, Sanford Eigenbrode, Troy Hall, Amanda Haruch, Jeff Hicke, Phil Higuera, Joseph Holbrook, Vincent Jansen, Kerry Kemp, Alycia Lamar, Amber Lankford, Tim Link, Troy Magney, Arjan Meddens, Liza Mitchell, Brandon Moore, Penny Morgan, Beth Newingham, Ryan Niemeyer, Ben Soderquist, Alexis Suazo, Christa Teston, Kerri Vierling, Von Walden, Chelsea Walsh *University of Idaho, multiple colleges and departments
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OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S TALK
1. Objectives2. Methods
– Biophysical changes– Social perceptions
3. Results4. New Insights for Climate Change Assessments5. Outreach Goals
Above and cover photo courtesy Matthew Dolkas
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MAIN OBJECTIVES
1. Provide a framework for finer-scale, indicator-focused climate change assessments
2. Provide a case example that compares perceived impacts and observed indicators of climate change
3. Understand the differences between types of climate change indicators & how they can be classified by their utility for climate assessments
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 3
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INTERDISCIPLINARY METHODS
1. Graduate-student led with input from faculty advisors
2. Conducted stakeholder survey of perceived CC impacts
3. Identified biophysical data sources and CC indicators
4. Created a final interdisciplinary synthesis and translation of findings for general audience
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 4
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BIOPHYSICAL CHANGES: OUR INDICATORS FRAMEWORK...
“Climate Change Indicators” defined as: Observed climate-related trends in variables from
physical, ecological, and social systems
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 5
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SOCIAL PERCEPTIONS:OUR SURVEY FRAMEWORK…
• What is most important and useful?– Impacts (outcomes) of climate change– Indicators of change
• Exploratory survey (N= 100)– Managers asked about personal and professional
significance
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PERCEIVED IMPACTS
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Relevant Climate Change Indicators
8Normalized Importance (%)
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Relevant Climate Change Indicators
9Normalized Importance (%)
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CLIMATE CHANGE INDICATORS IDENTIFIED • Temperature
– Average annual temperature– Frost-free growing season
• Precipitation– Precipitation phase– Snowpack accumulation and
melt– Precipitation intensity
• Water Systems– Streamflow
• Annual discharge• Timing of peak and 50% flow
– Stream temperature
• Ecological Indicators– Phenology
• Lilac blooms• Mountain Bluebird nesting dates
(state bird!)• Salmon migration
– Disturbance• Wildfire• Bark beetle kill
– Species viability and productivity
• Sagebrush
• Social Indicators– Heat related illness– Recreation
• Ski season
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INTENSIFICATION OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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FROST-FREE GROWING SEASON
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Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 13
NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
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Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 14
NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
CC Indicator Type
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Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
CC Indicator Type
vs.
Perceived Levelof Impact
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NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
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Direct measure
of climate
Variable partiallyinfluenced by climate
Fire disturbance
Air temperature
Snowpack
Streamflow
Precipitation
Species movementsAnimal
phenology
Stream temperature
Plantphenology
Bioticdisturbance
Species viability &
productivity
Drought
Human activities
Example indicators of climate change
Per
ceiv
ed le
vel o
f im
pac
t in
Idah
o
B
D
CA
NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
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OUTREACH GOALS
1. Website, Online PDF, & Executive Summary– Re-written using more
general language – State-wide distribution
• Peer Reviewed Publication
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RESPONSES AND PERCEIVED IMPACTS BY SECTOR
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 20
State AgencyState AgencyFederal AgencyFederal AgencyNGONGOCorporate or PrivateCorporate or PrivateOtherOther
Climate Indicator
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