our insights. your story. - corelogic...our insights. your story. © 2019 rp data pty ltd t/as...
TRANSCRIPT
Our Insights.
Your Story.
Property market chart pack
June 2019
Our Insights. Your Story. © 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 2
Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth
As at the end of May 2019
Residential Real Estate
$6.3 Trillion
Australian Superannuation
$2.8 Trillion
Australian Listed Stocks
$1.9 Trillion
Commercial Real Estate
$980 Billion
10.2 millionNumber of dwellings
$1.82 trillionOutstanding mortgage
debt
418,496Total sales
p.a.
$253.7 billionGross value of
sales p.a.
50.5%Household
wealth held in
housing
Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA, ASX
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-2.0%
-1.7%
-1.4%
-0.2%
-1.8%
-0.7%
-3.3%
0.2%
-1.5%
-0.7%
-0.6%
0.8%
-2.4%
2.0%
-1.2%
-1.7%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Regional NSW
Regional Vic
Regional Qld
Regional SA
Regional WA
Regional Tas
Regional NT
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
May-91 May-98 May-05 May-12 May-19
Combined capitals Combined regionals
The quarterly rate of decline has lost momentum over recent months
3
Source: CoreLogic
Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to May-19
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
May-84 May-91 May-98 May-05 May-12 May-19
Combined capitals Combined regionals
The annual rate of decline in combined capital city values has increased and remains deeper than during the GFC
4
Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in dwelling values Annual change in dwelling values to May-19
-10.7%
-9.9%
-2.3%
0.4%
-8.8%
3.4%
-8.6%
2.4%
-4.9%
0.9%
-2.2%
-0.7%
-9.4%
6.7%
-1.2%
-8.4%
-3.0%
-7.3%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Regional NSW
Regional Vic
Regional Qld
Regional SA
Regional WA
Regional Tas
Regional NT
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
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-10.7%-9.9%
-2.3%
0.4%
-8.8%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 May-19
Annual change in dwelling values
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth
3.4%
-8.6%
2.4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 May-19
Annual change in dwelling values
Hobart Darwin Canberra
The annual change in dwelling values highlights broad-based weakening in housing market conditions
5
Source: CoreLogic
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-0.7%
-1.7%
-2.5%
-3.7%
-4.4%
-5.5%
-6.5%
-7.4%
-9.0%
-11.5%
-3.4%
-3.7%
-4.7%
-5.1%
-6.3%
-7.0%
-7.7%
-8.8%
-10.4%
-11.8%
-0.5%
0.4%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.9%
-1.6%
-2.7%
-3.7%
-4.7%
-6.2%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
Regional markets Combined capital cities National
Premium dwelling values continue to record much larger value falls than those of more affordable housing
6
Source: CoreLogic
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values by deciles,
National as at May 2019
Annual change in dwelling values by decile,
May-19
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Quarterly change Annual change
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-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
May-94 May-99 May-04 May-09 May-14 May-19
Quarterly change Annual change
Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -2.0% over the three months to May 2019 and they are
-10.7% lower over the past year. Sydney dwelling values are now -14.9% lower than their July 2017 peak.
7
Source: CoreLogic
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Sydney
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-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
May-94 May-99 May-04 May-09 May-14 May-19
Quarterly change Annual change
Dwelling values in Melbourne have fallen by -1.7% over the 3 months to May 2019 and they are -9.9% lower over the
past year. Values in Melbourne have now fallen by -11.1% since they peaked in November 2017.
8
Source: CoreLogic
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Melbourne
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
May-94 May-99 May-04 May-09 May-14 May-19
Quarterly change Annual change Brisbane home values fell -1.4% over the three months to May 2019 and they were -2.3% lower
than a year ago. Brisbane dwelling values have now fallen by -2.4% since their peak in April 2018.
9
Source: CoreLogic
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Brisbane
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-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
May-94 May-99 May-04 May-09 May-14 May-19
Quarterly change Annual change Dwelling values in
Adelaide fell by -0.2% over the three months to May 2019 however, they are 0.4% higher over the past year. Adelaide dwelling values peaked in December 2018 and have since fallen by
-0.5%.
10
Source: CoreLogic
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Adelaide
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-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
May-94 May-99 May-04 May-09 May-14 May-19
Quarterly change Annual change Perth dwelling
values fell by -1.8%over the three months to May 2019 and they are -8.8% lower over the past year. Dwelling values in Perth are now -19.2% lower than they were at their peak in June
2014.
11
Source: CoreLogic
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Perth
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-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
May-94 May-99 May-04 May-09 May-14 May-19
Quarterly change Annual change
Dwelling values in Hobart fell -0.7% over the 3 months to May 2019 however, they are 3.4% higher over the past year. Hobart dwelling values have now fallen by -1.3% since their peak in March
2019.
12
Source: CoreLogic
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Hobart
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-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
May-01 May-04 May-07 May-10 May-13 May-16 May-19
Quarterly change Annual change
Darwin dwelling values fell by -3.3% over the three months to May 2019 and they are -8.6% lower over the past year. Dwelling values in Darwin are currently -29.5% lower than their
historic peak.
13
Source: CoreLogic
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Darwin
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
May-94 May-99 May-04 May-09 May-14 May-19
Quarterly change Annual change
Dwelling values in Canberra increased 0.2% over the three months to May 2019 and they are 2.4%higher over the past year. House values have increased by 3.4% over the year while unit values fell
-1.1%.
14
Source: CoreLogic
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Canberra
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20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
May 99 May 01 May 03 May 05 May 07 May 09 May 11 May 13 May 15 May 17 May 19
Monthly sales with six month moving average, National
-20.2%
-27.4%
-12.7%
-2.3%
-7.2%
-10.1%
0.4%
-10.2%
-17.9%
-14.5%
-16.6%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
Year on year change in settled sales
15
Transaction numbers remain lower than a year ago and well
below the decade average due to significant falls in settled transactions across Australia’s two largest cities
Source: CoreLogic
Note the sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision however, they are still subject to revision. Furthermore, sales volumes do not
account for off-the-plan purchases which upon completion are counted as sales at their contract date.
Decade average
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-2.9%1.5%1.5%1.4%
2.5%4.9%
-5.2%2.5%
1.5%4.4%
1.4%0.2%0.5%
5.2%-0.3%
-0.1%1.8%
0.4%
-8% -4% 0% 4% 8%
SydneyMelbourne
BrisbaneAdelaide
PerthHobartDarwin
Canberra
Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA
Regional WARegional TasRegional NT
Combined capitalsCombined regionals
National
16
Rental growth continues to slow, largely due to falls in Sydney and slowing rental growth elsewhere
Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in dwelling rents, National Annual change in dwelling rents to May-19
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 May-19
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3.5%3.7%
4.6%4.4%4.3%
5.3%6.0%
4.9%
4.7%4.7%
5.5%5.7%5.8%
5.4%7.0%
3.9%5.1%
4.1%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
SydneyMelbourne
BrisbaneAdelaide
PerthHobartDarwin
Canberra
Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA
Regional WARegional TasRegional NT
Combined capitalsCombined regionals
National
17
With rental growth typically stronger than value growth, gross rental yields are rising fairly rapidly from their recent historic lows
Source: CoreLogic
Gross rental yields, National Gross rental yields as at May-19
3.5%
3.7%
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.5%
4.7%
4.9%
5.1%
May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 May-19
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5044
5543
5728
6744
6850
7099
7056
69
4866
54
3329364249116636
49364893723969
324836
0 50 100 150
SydneyMelbourne
BrisbaneAdelaide
PerthHobartDarwin
Canberra
Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA
Regional WARegional TasRegional NT
Combined capital citiesCombined regionals
National
May-19
May-18
18
The time it takes to sell a property has trended lower over the
past two months as stock on market has begun to moderate
Source: CoreLogic
Median days on market Median days on market May-18 vs May-19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 May-19
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
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-6.7%-6.3%
-5.0%-5.3%
-6.9%-4.3%
-7.1%-3.0%
-5.4%-4.8%
-5.6%-6.2%
-8.2%-4.3%-4.4%
-6.0%-5.4%
-5.7%
-5.3%-4.0%-4.3%-4.9%-6.0%-3.3%-7.2%-2.2%
-4.0%-3.6%-5.3%-5.6%-7.7%-4.5%-3.0%
-4.7%-4.5%-4.6%
-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%
SydneyMelbourne
BrisbaneAdelaide
PerthHobartDarwin
Canberra
Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA
Regional WARegional TasRegional NT
Combined capital citiesCombined regionals
National
May-19
May-18
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 May-19
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
19
As the housing market weakens, vendors are having to offer
larger discounts in order to secure a sale
Source: CoreLogic
Median vendor discount Median vendor discount May-18 vs May-19
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While fewer newly listed properties are coming up for sale currently, total listings generally remain higher than they were a year ago and elevated compared to recent years
Source: CoreLogic
Number of new and total properties advertised for sale, 28 days to 2 June 2019
Capital cityNo of new
listings
12 mth
change (%)
No of total
listings
12 mth
change (%)
Sydney 4,776 -25.5% 26,757 -0.2%
Melbourne 5,455 -24.6% 33,903 9.9%
Brisbane 3,516 -9.2% 21,167 7.1%
Adelaide 1,826 3.3% 8,808 7.8%
Perth 2,928 -17.2% 20,612 -3.2%
Hobart 363 9.7% 1,272 24.3%
Darwin 149 4.9% 1,436 2.1%
Canberra 471 -18.1% 2,319 16.5%
Combined capitals 19,484 -18.4% 116,274 4.5%
StateNo of new
listings
12 mth
change (%)
No of total
listings
12 mth
change (%)
NSW 8,763 -20.8% 52,693 5.7%
Vic 7,977 -21.2% 51,101 6.3%
Qld 8,100 -9.2% 63,384 1.6%
SA 2,505 2.2% 17,585 2.2%
WA 4,016 -17.9% 33,385 -4.2%
Tas 852 -13.1% 4,886 -4.2%
NT 211 7.7% 2,074 3.6%
ACT 481 -18.2% 2,418 17.2%
National 32,905 -16.1% 227,526 2.7%
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Auction clearance rates have been stronger relative to late 2018 and have increased further since the Federal election
Source: CoreLogic
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-19
Nu
mb
er
of
au
cti
on
s
Cle
ara
nce r
ate
Weekly clearance rate, combined capital cities
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20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Sep-88 Sep-98 Sep-08 Sep-18
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Sep-88 Sep-98 Sep-08 Sep-18
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Sep-83 Sep-88 Sep-93 Sep-98 Sep-03 Sep-08 Sep-13 Sep-18
1.5%2.2%
1.7%0.8%0.9%
1.2%-0.2%
1.9%1.6%
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
NSWVIC
QLDSA
WATASNT
ACTAUST
22
Housing demand: migration to Australia remains high, however the trend in population growth has dipped a little
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Quarterly change in national population
Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population
Rolling 4 qtr average
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Apr-89 Apr-94 Apr-99 Apr-04 Apr-09 Apr-14 Apr-19
Houses Units
23
Both house and unit approvals continue to trend lower, with larger falls in approved unit supply
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Number of dwellings approved for construction, National
Rolling 6 mth average
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5.5%
0.6%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%
10.0%12.5%15.0%
Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13 Apr-15 Apr-17 Apr-19
Annual change in credit, owner occupier v investor
Owner occupier housing Investment housing
37.6%
21.4%
15%
25%
35%
45%
Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18
% of mortgages settled with an LVR 80%+
45.6%
15.8%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18
% of mortgages originated on interest-only terms
24
Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA
Housing credit is expanding at an historically slow pace, due in large to much tighter credit conditions
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$15.3
$12.4
$9.4
$4.5
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Mar-19
$ b
illio
n
Monthly value of new housing finance commitments, National
Owner occupier (ex refi)
Investor (ex refi) 26.8%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%
37%
39%
41%
43%
45%
Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Mar-19
New investor lending share of total new lending (ex refinances)
The slowdown in credit growth is mostly due to a
sharp reduction in investment lending;
down 26% over the past year and almost 52%
lower relative to the 2015 peak.
More recently, owner occupier lending has
dived sharply, down 15% over the past 12 months.
25
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
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54%
39%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%
Mar
-03
Mar
-07
Mar
-11
Mar
-15
Mar
-19
NSW42%
34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Mar
-03
Mar
-07
Mar
-11
Mar
-15
Mar
-19
Vic37%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Mar
-03
Mar
-07
Mar
-11
Mar
-15
Mar
-19
Qld
39%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Mar
-03
Mar
-07
Mar
-11
Mar
-15
Mar
-19
SA44%
31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Mar
-03
Mar
-07
Mar
-11
Mar
-15
Mar
-19
WA
32%
23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Mar
-03
Mar
-07
Mar
-11
Mar
-15
Mar
-19
Tas
34.2%26.3%
18.9% 21.8% 17.8% 22.6% 17.9%25.0%
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT
Investors as a % of total value of lending (excluding refinances) as at March 2019
26
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Investor activity has faded over the past couple of years in each state and territory
Long run
average
Investor housing finance commitments by states as a share of total commitments (excluding refinances)
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25.0%
30.2%
27.1%
21.9%
37.0%
20.8%
44.3%
22.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
WA
Tas
NT
ACT
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Mar-03 Mar-07 Mar-11 Mar-15 Mar-19
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas
27
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
First home buyers have been a key source of housing demand recently due to improved affordability, less competition from investors, low mortgage rates and
incentivesFirst home buyers as a % of all owner occupier housing
finance commitments (excluding refi)
First home buyers as a % of all
owner occupier housing finance
commitments (exc refi), Mar 19
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5.00 7.00
10.38
17.00
9.62
5.76
7.79
5.374
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
May-1959 May-1969 May-1979 May-1989 May-1999 May-2009 May-2019
Standard variable mortgage rates over time
5.37
4.68
3.93
5.94
5.25
4.16
Variable; Standard
Variable; Discounted
3-year fixed
Variable; Standard
Variable; Discounted
3-year fixed
Ow
ne
ro
ccu
pie
rIn
vest
or
Avg mortgage rate by product type,May 2019 (%)
0.14
0.21
-0.08
0.44
0.55
0.03
Variable; Standard
Variable; Discounted
3-year fixed
Variable; Standard
Variable; Discounted
3-year fixed
Ow
ne
ro
ccu
pie
rIn
vest
or
Basis point change in avg rate since recent trough to May 2019
4.68
5.25
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.3
May 15 May 16 May 17 May 18 May 19
Investor mortgage rate premium
Owner Occupier Investor
Source: CoreLogic, RBA (based on discounted variable rates)
55
58
ba
sis
po
ints
28
Source: CoreLogic, RBA
Following the 25 basis point cut to interest rates this month they sit at their lowest levels since the 1960s
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Disclaimer
29
In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or
completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body
corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it
may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.
Queensland Data
Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2019. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and
agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in
negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.
South Australian Data
This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the
accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.
New South Wales Data
Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.
Victorian Data
The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will
constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying
upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied.
Western Australian Data
Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2019) trading as Landgate.
Australian Capital Territory Data
The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be
reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box
1908 Canberra ACT 2601.
Tasmanian Data
This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The
Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:
a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and
b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.
Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au
© 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. Our Insights. Your Story. 30
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