OUR ENERGY FUTURE: UPDATED

SC 203January 23, 2008

John Bush

TECHNOLOGY UPDATE

• Energy Sources/Conversion

• Energy/Power Transmission

• Energy Applications

FOSSIL FUELS

• Petroleum

• Natural Gas

• Coal

• Carbon Sequestration

GETTING RID OF CARBON DIOXIDE

• Disposal into space

• Storage in the ocean

• Fertilization of the ocean with iron

• Reaction with basalt

• Storage in forests

• Storage in soil as “biochar”

GROWING DIESEL

• Jatropha--an Indian weed– Needs little water– Grows on poor soil– Is not a food crop– Seed oil makes excellent diesel fuel– Estimated to be profitable at oil prices above $43/bbl

• Algae– Absorbs carbon dioxide effluent from power plants– Yields oil suitable as diesel fuel and starch for ethanol– Pilot demonstration in Arizona– Scale up at Arizona Public service Four Corners

Station

CELLULOSE BASED ETHANOL

• Bluefire Ethanol– First plant in Lancaster this year– Pilot plant in Izumi Japan

• Coskata– Recent investment by GM– Pilot plant planned for 2008: Warrenville

Illinois– One among several start-ups using bacterial

processing

TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY

• Ground transport– Light duty vehicles– Trucks/buses/construction equipment– Rail

• Air transport

• Water transport

LIGHT DUTY VEHICLESPOWER TRAINS/POWER SOURCES

• Power train– Mechanical– Electric– Hybrid

• Power source– ICE: Otto, Diesel– Battery– Supercapacitor– Fuel cell: hydrogen/reformer

LIGHT DUTY VEHICLESENERGY SOURCE/INFRASTRUCTURE

• Energy source– Fossil fuel– Biofuel– Hydrogen– Electric grid– Solar

• Infrastructure– Energy sources– Energy distribution– Vehicle manufacturing/marketing/maintenance

WHERE DO THESE STAND?AN UNOFFICIAL SCORECARD

TS* PI* DI* VI*• Internal combustion

– Gasoline/diesel fuel +++ +++ +++ +++– Methane +++ +++ + +++– Hydrogen +++ - o ++– Biofuels ++ + + ++

• Electric– Battery ++ +++ + ++– Supercapacitor + +++ + ++– Hydrogen fuel cell + - o o– Reformer fuel cell + +++ + -– Solar/hybrid +++ ++ ++ +

*TS = Technology status*PI = Energy production infrastructure*DI = Energy distribution infrastructure*VI = Vehicle manufacturing/marketing/maintenance infrastructure

ELECTRIC VEHICLES: PROJECT BETTER PLACE

• Employs a new business model– Consumer buys the car– Consumer rents the battery—monthly fee based on

usage– Networks of charging and exchange stations

• Employs “proven” technologies– Lithium ion battery developed Renault and NEC

• Highway 124 miles/charge (100?)• Lifetime 1500 charges• Top speed 70 mph

– Renault-Nissan will make the car in Europe

PROJECT BETTER PLACE& RENAULT/NISSAN/NEC

• Starting a pilot program in Israel– People drive less than 100 miles/day 90% of the time– Tel Aviv: 150 charging stations and 2 swap stations– Economics: $0.026/mile versus $0.32/mile – Expect 500,000 charging stations and 100,000 cars

on the road by 2010 (or maybe 20,000 by 2011!)

• May extend the pilot to– Small countries: Denmark, Holland– Crowded cities: London, Paris, Singapore, New York– China?

OTHER ALL ELECTRIC VEHICLES

• Daimler Smart Car: all electric version by 2009

• Tesla Roadster: 2008 ($100,000)

• Aptera Three Wheeler: 2008 ($30,000)

• Phoenix Motor Cars Pick-up truck: 2008

DAIMLER SMART CAR

TESLA

APTERA

PHOENIX MOTOR CARS

PLUG-IN HYBRIDS (PHEVS)

• Quantum Technologies/Fisker Karma luxury sedan: $80,000 2009

• GM/A123: Chevy Volt commercial by “late” 2010— “a stretch”

• GM-Saturn: Concept car shown in Detroit• Ford: SUV in test with Southern California

Edison• Toyota/Panasonic: commercial customers

by 2010

FUEL CELL POWERED VEHICLES

• Honda FCX Clarity: Sedan

• GM Chevy Equinox: SUV consumer evaluation in 2008

• Ford Fusion 999: 200 mph sports car

HONDA SOLAR HYDROGEN STATION

HONDA HOME HYDROGEN STATION

SUMMARY-- 2015

• ICEs using fossil fuels will dominate • ICEs using biofuels may still have to overcome inadequate fuel

availability• Hybrid vehicles (plug-in) may form a significant part of the installed

capacity• Fuel cell vehicles may still have to overcome

– Limited life and high cost of fuel cells– Limited availability of hydrogen– Limited vehicle manufacturing/maintenance experience

• All-electric vehicles may still have to overcome– Limited range and high cost of batteries– Unresolved safety issues– Limited recharging sites– Limited vehicle manufacturing/maintenance experience