other entities public “majors” public “majors” exxonmobil (2 nd to apple), chevron, bp,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Other entities
Public “majors” ExxonMobil (2nd to
Apple), Chevron, BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Total
Downstream 720 refineries, in US
designed as $ losers Most new are in ME &
Asia, 3-5 yr build +$5 billion each
US imports 8.3 of 14.8 Mb/day
Strategic reserves All OECD nations have
multi-wk supply of crude oil
US = 44 days of imports 2 wks of gasoline, jet fuel,
etc in pipelines
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Oil flow
Who uses it?
Who has oil?
= # of supertankers
What limits the flow? According to MBAs …
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• Inefficient use
Investment bubblers & Cartels Extreme weather damage
No new US refineries (NIMBY)
… Above ground factors
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US oil production
Horiz.drilling
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Oil reservoir factors Discovery (seismic, 2D 3D/4D
Off-shore drill rigs, complex & one-shot, so very expensive & limited
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Declining N. Sea oil extraction
State of artreservoirmanagement tomaximize total oilproduction
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Projectionbased on past experience
NOCs limit exports to maintain domestic supply & extend duration of “petrowealth”
Financial constraints on new reservoir development
Water & electricity availability
1990
2003
EXPORT LAND MODEL
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… According to “Peak Oilers”
Global per capita power declining (flat energy supply consumed by growing # of users)
ERoEI declining because we drain large concentrated reservoirs, but new finds are mostly smaller/deeperLarger effort/energy use for new reservoirsMore waste pollution refining lower-grade
fuelsRusting infrastructure & aging workforce,
petroleum no longer seen as “sexy”Innovations are now complex “one-off”, not
breakthroughs w/ wide application
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So many constraints! Can we estimate when world flow will decline?
Mistaken calls have been made before
Is there any scienceto Peak Oil?
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Texas Oil Depletion 1935-2003
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Millions
Cumulative Depletion
An
nu
al D
ep
leti
on
/Cu
mu
lati
ve
Texas Oil Depletion 1935-2003
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Millions
Cumulative Depletion
An
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ep
leti
on
/Cu
mu
lati
ve
1935-1960
Texas Oil Depletion 1935-2003
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Millions
Cumulative Depletion
An
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leti
on
/Cu
mu
lati
ve
1935-1960 1961-1980
Hubbert’s “curve fitting”Plot (annual extraction) / (total extracted to date) vs. total extracted to date.
Plot starts at (1st year,1st year), over time drops to (ultimate recoverable, 0)
After “noisy” start, curve settles to straight line, so perhaps can extrapolate to predict ultimate (total) recoverable resource (URR) in future
Stepping back halfway approximates year extraction starts to decline (= peak)
Texas Oil Depletion 1935-2003
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Millions
Cumulative Depletion
An
nu
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ep
leti
on
/Cu
mu
lati
ve
1935-1960 1961-1980 1981-2000
Texas Oil Depletion 1935-2003
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Millions
Cumulative Depletion
An
nu
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eple
tio
n/C
um
ula
tiv
e
1935-1960 1961-1980 1981-2000 2001-2003
Shows that Texashas extracted 90% ofall its recoverable oil
1970
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Millions
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US-48 & Saudi oil histories
URR
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Applied to World Oil Liquids Supply
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Peak oil “rolloff timing
FACT: Too few large-volume projects underway to overcome post-2013 depletion
FACT: New projects tap non-conventional oils, costly & difficult, deliver smaller flows after delays
Tar sands
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FACT: crude oil production has not increased for 5.5 yrsdespite high prices until2 yrs ago
Simplest explanation:Oil flow will no longergrow
Will “tar sands” help?
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Is there a physical model of oil depletion?
Yes!
First simplification: separate discovery from extraction
BUT Hubbert “analysis” is only curve fitting, no predictive power, only appeal to precedent.Not science!