orm project_regression (3)

8/19/2019 Orm Project_Regression (3)

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AGRICU!UR" # AI"D $"C!%R Institutional Rural Credi

GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectare ong !er (in *illlion Rs

33880 5.22

33675 6.38

34465 7.92

35318 9.8536689 11.50

38538 17.72

38847 21.60

40562 25.20

42489 29.08

43053 35.68

42932 42.89

43934 48.43

44453 59.95

46249 71.8546262 86.70

46128 103.77

47723 116.45

46826 137.42

50808 152.39

51313 181.60

52134 193.13

53432 207.23

54744 225.76

56135 240.37

58035 263.78

58062 282.27

61409 309.11

62271 329.50

65341 338.86

66247 497.24

64183 373.02

66109 452.34

61722 542.24

65176 704.54

66298 862.5967968 1079.88

70493 1324.77


3/37

Rain+all !ractors

Annual ()$ales

92.6 15760

127.8 16575

120.9 18354

151.2 19875124.4 26578

148.0 32765

95.6 33473

167.4 39667

117.8 51428

142.4 58027

92.4 68087

86.6 83301

111.5 63714

119.7 7423892.0 80263

161.4 78232

152.7 77889

160.7 90510

87.7 106250

89.4 117300

165.3 137123

106.8 146800

112.0 146770

134.9 139072

130.9 164075

123.9 191200

130.9 228612

167.0 253276

157.0 256558

141.0 260762

66.4 237189

125.8 215005

77.6 165702

120.5 191677

119.2 247531136.4 290546

100.8 352781

0

,0000

100000

1,0000

200000

2,0000

-00000

-,0000

.00000


4/37

ractors $ales !i)e- $eries


5/37


6/37


7/37

20

21

22

23

24

25

2627


8/37

0.9837301657

0.9677250389

0.961856864111153.3166737

27

df SS MS F Signicance F

4 82057257404.5 20514314351 164.91073971 4.609582E-016

22 2736722402.12 124396472.82

26 84793979806.7

Coefcients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

-92626.273001 46697.5545204 -1.98353583930.0599256337 -189471.073660.0370172897 0.2345838161 0.15779984450.8760539299 -0.4494797687

294.1323300095 122.859416171 2.3940560616 0.0256212913 39.337495674

-88.0551489197 85.8173217275 -1.02607663750.3160058733 -266.02938121

3.2065191684 1.332451398 2.406481147 0.0249457985 0.4431840999

Predicted Sales Residuals17159.87881344 -1399.87881343

13598.36420581 2976.63579419

16809.55074061 1544.44925939

17965.69656387 1909.30343613

25088.80507136 1489.19492864

31754.17971301 1010.82028699

38001.78997166 -4528.78997166

39053.35687076 613.64312924

50947.04958908 480.950410923

51361.62377757 6665.37622243

58525.82963601 9561.1703639964293.62155619 19007.3784438

67127.16634198 -3413.16634198

76615.46344559 -2377.46344559

83628.2015444 -3365.2015444

82141.38310296 -3909.38310296

91708.26924443 -13819.2692444

94128.75095159 -3618.75095159

119345.0230143 -13095.0230143

0.00 5. . .

-50000

0

50000

At 1999-2000 Price

At 1

Residuals

0

-50000

0

50000

GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIG

GR%$$ AR

Residuals


9/37

129548.3793207 -12248.3793207

129374.5668804 7748.4331196

142589.4605374 4210.53946262

152609.2837108 -5839.28371079

159787.5219785 -20715.5219785

173758.8521277 -9683.85212772

179801.3341958 11398.6658042199214.5970942 29397.4029058


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Upper 95% Lower 90.0% Upper 90.0%

4218.5276559 -172812.71604 -12439.8299590.5235143481 -0.3657969904 0.4398315698

548.92716435 83.164974692 505.09968533

89.919083371 -235.41588015 59.305582309

5.9698542369 0.9185077463 5.4945305906

. .00 10.00 15.00 2 0.00 25.00 3 0.00

(Rs Crore) Residual Plot

999-2000 Prices (Rs Crore)

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 2

-50000

0

50000

ong !er (in *illlion Rs) Resid

ong !er (in *illlion Rs)

Residuals

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

-50000

0

50000

Annual () Residual

Annual ()

Residuals

5 10 15 20 25 30

!I%&('000 ectares) Residual Plot

"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectares)


11/37


12/37

5.00 30.00

ual Plot

25.0 30.0

lot


13/37


14/37

AGRICU!UR" # AI"D $"C!%R Institutional Rural Credi

GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectare ong !er (in *illlion Rs

33880 5.22

33675 6.38

34465 7.92

35318 9.8536689 11.50

38538 17.72

38847 21.60

40562 25.20

42489 29.08

43053 35.68

42932 42.89

43934 48.43

44453 59.95

46249 71.85

46262 86.7046128 103.77

47723 116.45

46826 137.42

50808 152.39

51313 181.60

52134 193.13

53432 207.23

54744 225.76

56135 240.37

58035 263.7858062 282.27

61409 309.11

62271 329.50

65341 338.86

66247 497.24

64183 373.02

66109 452.34

61722 542.24

65176 704.54

66298 862.59

67968 1079.8870493 1324.77


15/37

Correlation Coecient

0.83021


16/37

$U//ARY %U!PU!

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.9828968358

R Square 0.9660861898

Adjusted R Square 0.963260039Standard Errr 10946.24542524

!"ser#atins 27

A$!%A

df

Re&ressin 2

Residual 24

'tal 26

Coecients

(nter)ept -106273.726354ong !er Institutional Rural Credit (in *illlion R294.3795488129

GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectares) 3.4921507194

RES(*+A, !+'+'

Observation Predicted Sales

1 13577.00126465

2 13202.59064383 16414.7342173

4 19961.69131017

5 25235.15620202

6 33523.18367582

7 35744.45089751

8 42793.25575702

9 50664.82284271

10 54577.30087063

11 56277.22718052

12 61407.22490179

13 66610.9035274914 76385.92285042

15 80802.85710964

16 85359.96781147

17 94662.68088788

18 97703.36083118

19 116015.9668416

20 126378.3295757

21 132639.5815142


17/37

22 141323.1447862

23 151359.6995696

24 160518.1664284

25 174044.678033

26 179582.04396

27 199172.0565093


18/37

SS MS F Signicance F

81918292872.8 4.1E010 341.83815453 2.314830E-018

2875686933.83 1.2E008

84793979806.7

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 9! "##er 9! Lower 9$%$!

38324.6718018 -2.772985 0.010571048 -185371.96136 -27175.491347 -171842.7205683.6727658926 3.518224 0.0017611124 121.68744764 467.07164999 151.22531307

1.0215742673 3.418401 0.0022532754 1.3837250584 5.6005763804 1.7443576121

Residuals cter sales -102343 5 29.467(ong te

2182.99873535

3372.40935621939.2657827

-86.6913101649

1342.84379798

-758.183675817

-2271.45089751

-3126.25575702

763.177157286

3449.69912937

11809.7728195

21893.7750982

-2896.90352749-2147.92285042

-539.85710964

-7127.96781147

-16773.6808879

-7193.36083118

-9765.96684159

-9078.32957571

4483.41848584

/r te M,R analsis e a#e "ser#ed tat ut te ur ptentialparaeters nl t a)trs )uld satisa)tril eplain 'ra)trs sales.

'ese are (nstitutinal Rural redit Area under irri&atin.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

-50000

0

50000

GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectares) Resi

GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectares)

Residuals


19/37

5476.85521379

-4589.69956958

-21446.1664284

-9969.67803302

11617.95604

29439.9434907


20/37

"##er 9$%$!

-40704.73215437.53378455

5.2399438267

r institutional rural credit)5 4.97(Gross Area Under Irrigati

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

-50000

0

50000

ong !er (in *illlion Rs) Residual Plot

ong !er (in *illlion Rs)

Residuals

ual Plot


21/37


22/37

$U//ARY %U!PU!


Multiple R 0.9744607451

R Square 0.9495737438


!"ser#atins 27

A$!%A

df

Re&ressin 1

Residual 25

'tal 26

Coecients

(nter)ept 24288.80750722,n& 'er (nsitutinal Rural redit :in "illlin Rs; 570.3413798686

RES(*+A, !+'+'

Observation Predicted Sales

1 27265.98951014

2 27927.58551079

3 28805.911235784 29906.67009893

5 30847.73337571

6 34395.2567585

7 36608.18131239

8 38661.41027991

9 40874.3348338

10 44638.58794094

11 48750.74928979

12 51910.44053426

13 58480.77323035

14 65267.8356507915 73737.40514184

16 83473.13249619

17 90705.06119293

18 102665.1199288

19 111203.1303854

20 127862.8020914

21 134438.8382013

22 142480.6516574


23/37

23 153049.0774264

24 161381.7649863

25 174733.456689

26 185279.0688027

27 200587.0314384


24/37


80518136854.6 80518136855 470.77346945 9.822514E-018

4275842952.03171033718.08

84793979806.7

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 9! "##er 9!

3777.4018228 6.430030123 9.85544E-007 16509.102824 32068.51219126.286265612721.697314798 9.82251E-018 516.20380243 624.47895731

Residuals

-11505.9895101

-11352.5855108

-10451.9112358-10031.6700989

-4269.73337571

-1630.2567585

-3135.18131239

1005.58972009

10553.6651662

13388.4120591

19336.2507102

31390.5594657

5233.22676965

8970.164349216525.59485816

-5241.13249619

-12816.0611929

-12155.1199288

-4953.13038541

-10562.8020914

2684.16179875

4319.3483426

!n Rurunnin& re&&ressin en e drp te a)tr-


25/37

-6279.07742637

-22309.7649862

-10658.456689

5920.93119725

28024.9685616


26/37

Lower 9$%$! "##er 9$%$!

17836.473482 30741.141532525.44073811 615.24202162

rea under irri&atin= Adjusted R-squareain "t te a)trs.

0 200 250 300 350

s) Residual Plot

in *illlion Rs)


27/37


28/37

$U//ARY %U!PU!


Multiple R 0.9739585625

R Square 0.9485952815


!"ser#atins 27

A$!%A

df

Re&ressin 1

Residual 25

'tal 26

Coecients

(nter)ept -233739.196321


29/37

23 147268.1589985

24 156949.2424277

25 170172.8646531

26 170360.7792847

27 193656.5033385


30/37


80435169146.8 80435169147 461.33667773 1.249561E-017

4358810659.84 174352426.39

84793979806.7

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 9! "##er 9! Lower 9$%$!

15074.3395837 -15.505766937 2.47372E-014 -264785.37985 -202693 -259488.290210.3240319549 21.478749445 1.24956E-017 6.2924448678 7.627157 6.4063089812

Residuals

13701.1326386

15942.8918787

12223.64895347807.93855431

4969.05114852

-1712.62121714

-3155.19977905

-8897.25878776

-10547.7956448

-7874.12350535

3028.01243637

11268.2916628

-11930.8451451

-13906.6480487-7972.12546391

-9070.51210697

-20514.3949751

-1650.4533245

-13624.3815884

-6089.08117992

8019.92205847

8663.10013819

!n Rurunnin& re&&ressin en e drp te a)tr- =,n& ter (nstitutisquare ass drpped r te )ase en e retain "t t

30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000

-50000

0

50000

GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectar

GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ecta

Residuals


31/37

-498.158998502

-17877.2424277

-6097.8646531

20839.2207153

34955.4966615


32/37

"##er 9$%$!

-207990.102437.5132933613

nal redit= Adjusted R-e a)trs.

60000 65000

s) Residual Plot

es)


33/37


34/37

Sin)e Adjusted R-square a

!racter sales -10234

Institutional Rural Credit

Year ong !er (in *illlion Rs)

1970-71 5.221971-72 6.38

1972-73 7.92

1973-74 9.85

1974-75 11.50

1975-76 17.72

1976-77 21.60

1977-78 25.20

1978-79 29.08

1979-80 35.68

1980-81 42.891981-82 48.43

1982-83 59.95

1983-84 71.85

1984-85 86.70

1985-86 103.77

1986-87 116.45

1987-88 137.42

1988-89 152.39

1989-90 181.60

1990-91 193.13

1991-92 207.23

1992-93 225.76

1993-94 240.37

1994-95 263.78

1995-96 282.27

1996-97 309.11

1993-96 329.50

1996-99 338.86

1999-00 497.24

2000-01 373.02

2001-02 452.342002-0 542.24

200-0. 704.54

200.-0, 862.59

200,-0 1079.88

200-03 1324.77


35/37

s drpped in "t te )ases en e run re&ressin it nl ne a)tr t

5 29.467(ong ter institutional rural credit)5 4.97(Gross Are

AGRICU!UR" # AI"D $"C!%R

R%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectares

33880 1576033675 16575

34465 18354

35318 19875

36689 26578

38538 32765

38847 33473

40562 39667

42489 51428

43053 58027

42932 6808743934 83301

44453 63714

46249 74238

46262 80263

46128 78232

47723 77889

46826 90510

50808 106250

51313 117300

52134 137123

53432 146800

54744 146770

56135 139072

58035 164075

58062 191200

61409 228612

62271 2,23

65341 2,,,6

66247 2032

64183 23169

66109 21,00,61722 1,302

65176 19133

66298 2.3,1

67968 290,.

70493 ,2361

!ractors Actual$ales


36/37

erer n retainin& "t tese a)trs equatin is

a Under Irrigation)

ractors Forcasted $ale

"rror

"8-A " ":A /AP"

13504.1336 ,406213130.1644

16340.6096

19885.733

25156.25

33440.3036

35660.908

42706.026

50573.4504

54484.7184

56184.908261312.7534

66515.321

76286.483

80703.396

85260.8026

94560.091

97602.7096

115906.7582

126268.048

132527.5394

141208.3174

151242.0588

160397.5406

173919.9764

179457.2926

199040.118409006

2060,0439.,0222 45225 45225.21 0.178561

221,16463393 35039 35039.12 0.136574

2310410,1,0022 -10544 10544.11 0.040436

223,42,,,6 9656 9655.764 0.040709

2,3034,06223 -42603 42602.51 0.198147263040,6130 -103058 103058.1 0.621948

26,94220313296 -136916 136916.2 0.714307

3904..919,.33 -131505 131505.4 0.531269

..66294,.93.62 -158284 158283.5 0.54478

,2932423319,,, -176951 176951.3 0.50159

0

100000

200000

-00000

.00000

,00000

00000


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olun " Colun F

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