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Organised Crime Research Forum 2019

PROGRAM

30th May – 31st May 2019

Australian National University

Australian Centre on China in the World Auditorium Building 188, Fellows Lane

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Thursday 30th May 2019

Time Session details

0830 – 0900 Registration

Arrival tea and coffee

Session 1: Welcome and Opening

0900 – 0930 Welcome Mr Mike Phelan APM, Director, Australian Institute of Criminology Professor Michael Wesley, Australian National University Dr Rick Brown, Deputy Director, Australian Institute of Criminology Professor Rod Broadhurst, Australian National University

Session 2: Keynote address

Chair Dr Rick Brown

0930 – 1030 What are the social, economic and psychological risk factors that lead to recruitment into organised crime groups? Dr Francesco Calderoni, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

1030 – 1100 Morning tea break

Session 3: Darknet online networks

Chair Dr Rick Brown

1100 – 1130 Drug 3.0: novel psychoactives, synthetic opioids and darknet markets (DNMs). Professor Rod Broadhurst, Australian National University

1130 – 1200 Modelling the emergence of the next threat in cyberspace: A complex systems approach. David Kernot, Defence Science and Technology Group, Department of Defence Professor Roger Bradbury, Australian National University

1200 – 1230 Open secrecy: How shocks and creative problem-solving brought illegal markets out of the shadow. Dr Isak Ladegaard, Monash University

1230 – 1315 Lunch break

Session 4: Drug trafficking

Chair Professor Rod Broadhurst

1315 – 1345 Operation Galley: Drug dealing in hotels. Mr Paul Morton, Queensland Police Service/University of Queensland

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1345 – 1415 Structural and functional changes in a drug trafficking network in response to changes in the availability of drugs. Dr Matt O’Reilly, University of New South Wales

1415 – 1445 Anabolic-androgenic steroid (AAS) providers: A retrospective content analysis of AAS trafficking cases in Australia from 2010-2016. Dr Katinka van de Ven, University of New South Wales

1445 – 1515 Afternoon tea break

Session 5: Networks

Chair Professor Rod Broadhurst

1515 – 1545 Where did all the animals go? Network analyses of wildlife trafficking. Dr Phill Cassey, University of Adelaide

1545 – 1615 Outlaw motorcycle gang international imperialism: Plotting the worldwide expansion of the Big 4. Associate Professor Mark Lauchs, Queensland University of Technology

1615 – 1645 Organised crime in rural, regional and remote Australia: Exploring the bush networks. Dr Ruth Delaforce, Charles Sturt University

1645 – 1700 Break

1700 – 1900 COCKTAIL EVENT (RSVP ONLY) Australian Centre on China in the World

Lotus Hall

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Friday 31st May 2019

0830 – 0900 Arrival tea and coffee

Session 6: Drugs

Chair Dr Rick Brown

0900 – 0930 The impact of seizures and supplier arrest on drug use and drug-related harms: A systematic review. Ms Elizabeth Eggins, The University of Queensland

0930 – 1000 A rapid review of the relationship between price, purity and population-level drug-related harm. Dr Caitlin Hughes, University of New South Wales

1000 – 1030 How do drug users respond to sudden changes in drug markets? A longitudinal study of heroin users after the Sydney Heroin Shortage. Associate Professor Jason Payne, Australian National University

1030 – 1100 Morning tea break

Session 7: Gangs

Chair Professor Rod Broadhurst

1100 – 1130 Exploring changes in the prevalence, seriousness and concentration of offending by outlaw motorcycle gangs

Mr Anthony Morgan, Australian Institute of Criminology

1130 – 1200 Disaffiliation from criminal gangs Ms Julianne Webster, Queensland Police Service

1200 – 1230 Gangs and fatal violence Dr Samantha Bricknell, Australian Institute of Criminology

1230 – 1315 Lunch break

Session 8: Organised crime

Chair Dr Rick Brown

1315 – 1345 Not a Boy’s Club - The Role of Female Offenders in Organised Crime. Mr Adrian Leiva, University of New South Wales

1345 – 1415 How mobile are outlaw motorcycle gangs and gang members? An analysis of offence specialisation and cross-border offending Christopher Dowling, Isabella Voce, Penny Jorna & Anthony Morgan

1415 – 1445 Recruitment into Mafias: Criminal Careers of Mafia Members and Mafia Bosses Dr Francesco Calderoni, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

1445 – 1500 Closing

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Abstracts Day 1 – 30th May 2019

0930 – 1030 What are the social, economic and psychological risk factors that lead to recruitment into organised crime groups? Speaker: Francesco Calderoni, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Italy Co-authors: Gian Maria Campedelli, Tommaso Comunale, Niccolò Frualdo, Martina Elena Marchesi, Ernesto U Savona (all from the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Italy) The literature on organised crime has rarely focused on what leads individuals to become involved in organised criminal groups (OCGs). Several theoretical frameworks point to different factors, ranging from low self-control and self-selection, to group and societal factors. This presentation summarises a systematic review of the risk factors relating to criminalisation and recruitment to organised crime groups developed under project PROTON, conducted by Università Cattolica and funded by the European Union. The review aims to summarise the empirical evidence on the risk factors associated with recruitment into OCGs and compare evidence about the risk factors across different types of factors, types of OCGs, and countries. The review has searched studies indexed in selected databases and published in five languages (English, French, German, Italian, and Spanish), without limitations as to their year of publication or geographic origin. The results show that social and economic factors are the most commonly reported factors relating to recruitment into OCGs, while psychological factors are marginal. Individuals with violent attitudes and behaviour, low socio-economic status, and kinship and blood ties with organised crime offenders are more likely to join organised crime groups. Although factors are highly interrelated and shared across groups, there are signs of differentiation across types of organised crime groups. For instance, individuals join mafias and gangs attracted by strong group identity, whereas individuals enter the drug organisations mainly for financial gain.

1100 – 1130 Drug 3.0: Novel psychoactives, synthetic opioids and darknet markets Rod Broadhurst, Harry Trivedi and Matt Ball, Australian National University This presentation reports on recent developments in novel psychoactive substances (NPS), including the role of omnibus cryptomarkets. It discusses the problem of the new epidemic of cheap synthetic opioids which have a high risk of overdose fatality, and the implications for public health, recreational drug users and the organised crime groups profiting from these drugs. The presentation also explains how cryptomarkets on the darknet are used to distribute potent synthetic drugs and the involvement of organised crime groups. Finally, the authors discuss what to do about the problem and make recommendations about resourcing medical services, improving policing, educating consumers, enhancing drug testing and reconsidering prohibition priorities.

1130 – 1200 Modelling the emergence of the next threat in cyberspace: A complex systems approach David Kernot, Defence Science and Technology Group, Department of Defence Roger Bradbury, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

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Australia, together with its allies, has been engaged in a long war against Islamic extremists. Militarily, the effort has been broadly successful, and our service personnel are now returning home. All too frequently they carry physical and psychological battle scars. Simultaneously, Western men and women who fought with the extremists are also now seeking to return. Some were hardened jihadists, some were camp followers, and some have children born in the war zones in tow. Along with their extreme ideologies, many carry the same psychological battle scars as our service personnel and have experienced high levels of trauma. These returnees will change the social landscape of Australia, and those changes will be most evident in social media in cyberspace. A significant new security threat may emerge in cyberspace driven by the ease with which the returnees will use social media to air their grievances and mobilise support. Al Qaeda and ISIS are agile, effective and adaptive users of social media, as can be seen in the growth of home-grown terrorism and lone actor violence. Battle-hardened jihadi returnees may well supercharge this subversive activity. Historically, military returnees have changed the social landscape after each of the major conflicts. We saw the emergence of the New Guard after World War I, a surge in outlaw motorcycle gangs after World War II and Vietnam, and a growth in ex-military right-wing extremist groups today. This presentation discusses the development of an empirically-based complex systems model of this changing social landscape to better understand its dynamics and the potential points of intervention to prevent the extremes of the system from dominating its central democratic dynamics.

1200 – 1230 Open Secrecy: How shocks and creative problem-solving brought illegal markets out of the shadow Dr Isak Ladegaard, Monash University Can organisational forms for illegal activities grow stronger and more advanced in response to law enforcement pressure? In October 2013, the FBI shut down Silk Road, a thriving e-commerce website for mail-ordering of illegal drugs. After the shock, buyers and sellers adopted a new identity verification method that enabled mass-migration to other markets, and created websites for information distribution that reduced post-shock uncertainties. The outcome was a decentralised market in which actors could operate across multiple websites in ‘open secrecy’. With verifiable pseudonyms and securely obfuscated real-world identities, actors could publicly discuss, plan, and participate in illegal activities. Threats from police and opportunistic criminals persisted, but were no longer crippling concerns, as actors created solutions to predictable problems. The outcome is a market that is complex and dynamic, but also stable, and thus the market now operates more like a legal one. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data, the author argues that advances in information technology have expanded the opportunity structure for cooperation and creative problem-solving in the electronic underworld, and therefore that shocks do not hinder but rather stimulate development in digital drug markets. Data were collected between 2013 and 2017 and include nearly one million transactions from three illicit e-commerce markets, three million messages from eight discussion forums, and website traffic from two market-independent websites.

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1315 – 1345 Operation Galley: Drug dealing in hotels Mr Paul Morton, Queensland Police Service and University of Queensland In response to an observed crime issue of offenders using, producing and distributing illicit drugs from Brisbane City hotels, Queensland Police Service detectives and University of Queensland researchers developed a partner-oriented community engagement model where detectives personally visited hoteliers and, using a procedurally just dialogue, enlisted their support as place managers and crime control partners. This engagement aimed to make hoteliers aware of the problem and signs of drug offending, inform them of their legal rights and obligations in line with the legal levers of third-party policing, provide them clear avenues to report suspicious activity, and make them more willing to report information and deny tenancy to drug offenders. In support of evidence-based policing, a randomised controlled trial was implemented where 40 hotels were subject of this personal visit engagement, 40 hotels were emailed a procedurally just letter outlining the problem and requesting they report information, and 40 hotels received the business-as-usual response. The trial results revealed that hoteliers who were visited by detectives were willing to partner with police, more able to accurately recognise the signs of drug offending in their hotels, and were six times more likely to notify police of drug-related behaviour in their premises. This translated to an increase in the number of drug search warrants executed, and higher rates of illicit drug detection and arrests.

1345 – 1415 Structural and functional changes in a drug trafficking network in response to changes in the availability of drugs Dr Matthew O’Reilly*, Dr Caitlin Hughes, Assoc Prof David Bright and Prof Alison Ritter, University of New South Wales * Presenting author Illicit drug markets and associated supply disruptions have been studied for many years but with limited attention to how drug trafficking networks adapt to supply changes and the consequences thereof: the aim of this study. A social network analysis was applied to a high-level poly-drug trafficking network which operated primarily in Melbourne between 1997 and 2007. Data were extracted from judges’ sentencing comments, a biography, and mainstream media. Supply changes (both law-enforcement and non-law-enforcement-caused) were coded over time, and associated structural and functional changes in the network were examined. Thirty-two supply changes were identified, including a 2.9 tonne seizure of cannabis. Associated structural and functional changes included a shift from mostly international trafficking to mostly domestic manufacture (and vice versa), corruption, and decentralisation. Despite these 32 supply changes, the network continued to sell large quantities of drugs for 15 years. This research highlights the complex adaptive nature of the illicit drug trade and its resilience to market change. A variety of structural and functional changes were associated with supply changes, some of which had potential to result in negative consequences, such as corruption and increased methamphetamine manufacture. These findings will contribute to better informed policymaking.

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1415 – 1445 Anabolic-androgenic steroid (AAS) providers: A retrospective content analysis of AAS trafficking cases in Australia from 2010–2016 Katinka van de Ven, Kyle JD Mulrooney and Matthew Dunn, University of New South Wales Background: Traditionally policymakers have paid little attention to the consumption of anabolic-androgenic steroids (AAS). Yet in recent times AAS have come to occupy an increasing amount of discursive space and, indeed, regulatory action. This newfound interest may be attributed to several broader developments, not least the perception of the involvement of organised crime in distributing performance and image enhancing drugs to the professional sports world and other sectors of this illegal market. This presentation explores the claim that AAS trafficking in Australia is the prerogative of organised crime groups. Methods: A retrospective content analysis of Australian AAS trafficking cases was conducted (2010–2016). In total 477 trafficking cases were identified but most cases were duplicates or lacked sufficient detail, resulting in a final dataset of 144 cases. A coding schedule was developed based on AAS trafficking literature. Findings: The largest group consisted of people active in the gym industry (22%), followed by the healthcare sector (17%), the ‘other’ category (12%) and the security sphere (8%). Of the 144 cases, only 12 percent indicated the potential involvement of organised crime, with half being linked to bikie gangs. Conclusion: Organised criminal groups seems to play a proportionally small role in the trafficking of AAS in Australia. Rather, echoing the findings of other research and reports, a significant amount of supply is derived from the gym industry and medical sector. The relative presence of such suppliers has important policy implications, not least for the role of criminal law in addressing the provision of AAS.

1515 – 1545 Where did all the animals go? Network analyses of wildlife trafficking Phill Cassey, Oliver Stringham, Adam Toomes, Joshua Ross, Lewis Mitchell Centre for Applied Conservation Science, University of Adelaide Wildlife trafficking is a massive transnational crime involving thousands of animal species and billions of dollars annually. Illegal harvesting of animals in their native ranges is a leading cause of species extinction and endangerment. In addition, the transfer of wildlife outside of their native ranges leads to novel biosecurity risks such as disease transmission and invasive species. Australia is home to unique and charismatic flora and fauna that are increasingly at risk from the illegal harvesting and introduction of wildlife. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the illegal trade of wildlife into and out of Australia occurs frequently, yet there have been no robust investigations into the scope and details of the illegal trade. This presentation discusses the analysis of this complex trade and the steps being taken to disrupt wildlife trafficking and assist enforcement agencies.

1545 – 1615 Outlaw motorcycle gang international imperialism: Plotting the worldwide expansion of the Big 4 Assoc Prof Mark Lauchs, School of Justice, Faculty of Law, Queensland University of Technology

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Outlaw motorcycle gangs are expanding around the world. Not only are new clubs forming in all regions, but the large clubs like the Hells Angels are continually creating new chapters internationally. While the phenomenon of outlaw clubs is receiving increased focus, the fundamental questions of who the clubs are and where they are has not been explored. This presentation will examine where and when the major clubs have expanded using information provided by clubs in the public domain. It will look at patterns of expansion and determine whether the clubs are competing for the same regions, demarcating their expansion or the new chapter formation is driven by other local factors. The presentation supports it conclusions with time lapsed maps of chapter formation. This information is essential for understanding the outlaw culture and its resilience. The presentation will conclude with preliminary findings based on comparisons of imperialism against local outlaw club formation.

1615 – 1645 Organised crime in rural, regional and remote Australia: Exploring the bush networks Dr Ruth Delaforce, Centre for Law and Justice, Charles Sturt University Academic literature and media reporting of Australian organised criminal activities focuses upon urban environments. However, organised illegal activities and criminal networks often emerge from and extend into rural, regional and remote communities. The ‘tyranny of distance’ can facilitate covert illegal operations. Where police-population ratios are lower and cross-border, criminal networks may evade detection. In the last 50 years, Australian criminal networks appear to have exploited these gaps in rural policing, assisted by recent advances in technology and improved transport infrastructure. The policing of criminal activities may be compromised, particularly where surveillance and intelligence collection occurs in small, isolated communities. Case studies examined in this presentation illustrate law enforcement challenges in identifying, disrupting and preventing criminal activities; these cases include the production and distribution of prohibited substances, and trafficking in flora and fauna. The studies reveal the gaps in crime prevention and detection, where police responses may be delayed and investigations undermined by fear of reprisal.

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Day 2 – 31stMay 2019

0900 – 0930 The impact of seizures and supplier arrest on drug use and drug-related harms: A systematic review Elizabeth Eggins, Lorraine Mazerolle and Angela Higginson, University of Queensland Systematic reviews of interventions use a series of standardised methodological stages to gather and synthesise impact evaluations of interventions, providing concise yet comprehensive and robust summaries of high-quality research evidence. They are valuable tools for policymakers and practitioners aiming to identify interventions that are most effective for particular problems and populations. The Global Policing Database (GPD) was built to increase the capacities of policymakers and researchers to undertake systematic reviews across all aspects of policing. This presentation will summarise the preliminary results of a systematic review undertaken to assess the impact of police seizures and supplier arrests on a range of drug-related outcomes. Using the GPD as the search source, the review focuses on a range of impact outcomes including drug use, drug-related crime and arrests, drug prices, drug purity, and drug-related harms (such as presentations to emergency departments).

0930 – 1000 A rapid review of the relationship between price, purity and population-level drug-related harm Caitlin Hughes, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Shann Hulme, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, UNSW Alison Ritter, Social Policy Research Centre, UNSW Analyses of drug markets over many years have shown that the price and purity of illicit substances can shape drug consumption and drug-related harm. For example, international research has shown that decreases in the purity-adjusted price of heroin can be associated with increased emergency room presentations or heroin‐related overdose hospital admissions (see for example Caulkins 2001; Unick et al. 2014), while increases in the purity-adjusted price of heroin can be associated with reduced overdose fatalities (see for example Moore et al. 2005). However, there remains limited understanding of the extent to which these relationships vary by time, geography/place and drug class. This presentation will outline the preliminary results from a rapid review (also known as a rapid evidence assessment) that synthesises existing research conducted between 1990 and 2019 on the relationship between price, purity and six population-level drug-related harms (ambulance call outs, emergency room presentations, hospital admissions, overdose, property crime and violent crime). It will further outline any differences in outcomes across three drug types: heroin, cocaine and meth/amphetamine. Implications for policy and practice, including for targeted law enforcement and harm minimisation strategies, will be discussed.

1000 – 1030 How do drug users respond to sudden changes in drug markets? A longitudinal study of heroin users after the Sydney Heroin Shortage. Associate Professor Jason Payne, Australian National University In 2001, the Australian heroin market experienced a significant reduction in the

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availability of heroin, first in Sydney, NSW, and then elsewhere throughout the country. The causes and short-term consequences of this shortage have long been of interest to law enforcement practitioners and criminal justice scholars worldwide, especially the extent to which supply reduction efforts can reshape local drug markets and their participants. Using a new longitudinal data component of the Australian Institute of Criminology's Drug Use Monitoring in Australia (DUMA) program, we explore the longitudinal experiences of a sample of Sydney-based heroin users who were active and in contact with the criminal justice system at the time of the shortage. With 18 years of data following the shortage, this study represents the single longest criminal justice follow-up of its kind. In this paper, we model the post-shortage criminal trajectories of heroin-users, explore how they adapted or not to the sudden changes in drug availability, and examine whether specific drug market participation practices insulated some heroin users from the effects of the shortage. We follow with a discussion of the implications for policy and law enforcement.

1100 – 1130 Exploring changes in the prevalence, seriousness and concentration of offending by outlaw motorcycle gangs Anthony Morgan, Penny Jorna, Isabella Voce & Christopher Dowling, Australian Institute of Criminology While there are some data available on offending by outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMCGs), including at the state and territory level, and data on arrests and charges resulting from police investigations and operations, the national picture of offending by OMCGs remains underdeveloped. This paper will examine whether offending by known members of outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMCG) has changed in recent years, using national data on the criminal histories of OMCG members. More specifically, the prevalence of offending by gang members, the type and seriousness of offences committed, and the concentration of offending—among both individuals and gangs—will be explored. There will be a particular focus on OMCG involvement in violent and drug (supply)-related offending. The possible implications for changes in offending patterns for both policy and law enforcement will be discussed.

1130 – 1200 Disaffiliation from criminal gangs Julianne Webster, Queensland Police Service This presentation will discuss the findings from an analysis of offending patterns for disaffiliated criminal gang members in Queensland. The analysis used recorded crime data and focused on comparing patterns of offending in the pre-disaffiliation and post-disaffiliation periods for former gang members. The implications of this research will be discussed together with the next steps for research in this area.

1200 – 1230 Gangs and fatal violence Dr Samantha Bricknell, Australian Institute of Criminology Around three percent of homicide incidents in Australia are recorded by police as gang-related. While numbers of incidents are low, gang-related homicides are distinct from other homicide events, particularly in the prevalence of multiple offenders, use of firearms, and confrontational and revenge motivations. This presentation examines

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incidents of gang-related homicide from the mid-1990s to mid-2016, classifying these incidents by gang type, relationship with organised criminal activity, solvability and sources of conflict that motivated the homicide event.

1315 – 1345 ‘Not a Boy’s Club’: The role of female offenders in organised crime Adrian Leiva, PhD Candidate, Flinders University The phenomenon of organised crime typically conjures images of ‘masculine’ male offenders who engage in profit-driven crimes as part of a secretive organisation or ‘brotherhood’. However, recent academic research (eg Bovenkerk 2003; Chepesiuk 2011; Siegal 2013) has highlighted the increasing role of female offenders in organised criminal groups, including the role of female drug traffickers (Campbell 2008), Nigerian ‘Madams’ involved in human trafficking (Becucci 2008; Siegal and de Blank 2010), and female Mafia members (Massari & Motta 2007; Pizzini & Gambetta, 2008). Despite this emerging field of research, there is a paucity of academic insight on the role of female offenders involved in organised criminal groups within Australia. Thus, the present study aims to understand the involvement pathways of female offenders and their role with organised criminal groups. By using Australian judicial sentencing comments, this study uncovered several key involvement pathways of female offenders, including pre-existing relationships with other offenders (ie familial and personal ties) and coercion (eg being forced to repay a drug debt). Furthermore, female offenders held a number of crucial roles alongside male offenders, including as couriers, money launderers, recruiters, and suppliers. The rise of female offenders in organised criminal groups presents a distinct challenge for law enforcement and policymakers in terms of prevention, targeting, and reoffending.

1345 – 1415 How mobile are outlaw motorcycle gangs and gang members? An analysis of offence specialisation and cross-border offending

Christopher Dowling, Isabella Voce, Penny Jorna & Anthony Morgan, Australian Institute of Criminology There is growing recognition of the significant threat posed by outlaw motorcycle gangs operating across both domestic and international borders. Cross-border cooperation can facilitate the movement of goods, new chapters can be established in response to licit or illicit markets, while gangs may relocate in response to rising conflict. The movement of OMCGs between jurisdictions is of particular interest to law enforcement. Measuring the extent to which offences are committed by gangs and gang members in different jurisdictions, and the diversity of offences that are committed, can help to inform national responses. Using national data on the criminal histories of outlaw motorcycle gang members, this paper will examine both the mobility and versatility of offending by OMCGs and members. This is an important first step in exploring the efficacy of legislative and policy responses to OMCGs.

1415 – 1445 Recruitment into Mafias: Criminal Careers of Mafia Members and Mafia Bosses

Dr Francesco Calderoni, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

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