Oregon’s Employment Benchmark

A Preliminary Estimate of July 2009 – March 2012 Revisions

Prepared By: Josh LehnerOregon Office of Economic Analysis

Benchmarking• Employment series revisions based on more information

and inclusion of QCEW data

• Previously revisions covered the October – September period (q4 through q3)

• This year, BLS changed to benchmarking only through q2 (October - June)

• Future revisions are likely to cover the q3 through q2 timeframe

• Currently state estimates are one full year off of benchmark (CES)

• Vertical line represents the last benchmarked data

CES Now Playing Catch Up

• 2011q4 and 2012q1 stronger than thought

• Unfortunately the slowdown in mid-2011 is accurate

• What about 2012q2?

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-121,575.0

1,590.0

1,605.0

1,620.0

1,635.0

1,650.0

1,665.0

1,680.0

1,695.0

1,710.0

1,725.0

1,740.0

Total NonfarmRecession BLS Prelim Benchmark

All Private Sector Growth

• In March 2012, CES is 15,900 too low (1.2%)

• 2012q1, CES is 13,400 too low on average (1.0%)

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-121,280.0

1,300.0

1,320.0

1,340.0

1,360.0

1,380.0

1,400.0

1,420.0

1,440.0

1,460.0

Private SectorRecession BLS Prelim Benchmark

Growth Essentially Matches US

Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12100

101

102

103

104

105

Private Sector Growth in ExpansionUnited States Oregon, Official Oregon, Prelim

Inde

x, F

eb 2

010

= 10

0

Individual Industry Revisions

Goods Producing: Unchanged or Up

Trade: Steady as She Goes- Retail continues to grow, just about inline with CES

- Wholesale growth slightly lower than CES, but solid pace

- T/W/U bouncing but with steady trend

Professional Jobs Added- Professional and Business Services skyrocketing

- 9,200 more than thought (SA)- 7,700 more (NSA)- 2/3rd Admin + Waste

- No end in sight for Information and Financial Activities?

Health Slowing? Others Slow & Steady

Public Sector Revisions- Slightly more Federal employees than initially estimated

-Local Gov’t CES looks accurate

- State revisions expected to be slightly negative