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Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) Week 7: Armed interventions Chris Blattman

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Page 1: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Order&Violence(PoliticalEconomyofDevelopment)

Week7:ArmedinterventionsChrisBlattman

Page 2: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Week7objectives

• Thereisalogicbehindmuchviolence– Civilwarsasbargainingbyothermeans,andmassatrocitiesasanattemptby

thepowerfultoimprovebargainingpositionspermanently

• Wecanunderstandinterventionsthroughtheirabilitytofacilitatebargaining,provideinformation,anddevelopself-enforcingcommitmentsorexternalenforcecommitments– Negotiationandmediationasfacilitatingelitebargains– The”corrupt”useofaidasanincentiveforpeace– Peacekeepingasinformationprovisionandexternalenforcement– Trusteeshipasatemporaryformofexternalenforcement– Sanctionsormilitaryinterventionasameanstoincreasethecostsofatrocities

• Interveners,however,tendtomakesomeconsistentmistakes– Underestimatingthetimethatstateandinstitutionaldevelopmenttakes– Underestimatingthepowerofelitesandthedifficultyofchangingthebalance– Misreadingthesituationandtheirownabilitiestoplanandimplementchange

Page 3: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

I.Apresentdayexample:SouthSudan

Page 4: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)
Page 5: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)
Page 6: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Sudan:ConflictbeforeIndependencein2011

• ColonialpowersunitedanArab-dominatednorthwithablackandnon-MuslimdominatedSouth

• Southernarmedgroupsfoughtforindependence1955-72and1983-2005

• Alsomotivatedbyoilrents,with75%ofreservesintheSouth

• Gainedindependencein2011

• Asaresultofwarandneglect,oneoftheleastpoliticallyandeconomicallydevelopedcountriesontheplanet

• Oilrevenues98%ofbudget

Page 7: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

ThecurrentconflictinSouthSudan

• EvenbeforeIndependence,severalethnicgroupsandleaderscompetedfordominanceintheSouth

• In2013,thisdissolvedintoacivilwar

• Alsowidespreadkillingofciviliansbyethnicmilitias

• Aboutaquarterofthe12millionpeoplehavebeendisplaced,andperhaps300,000killed

• Asmallpeacekeepingmissionhassofarfailedtostemtheviolence

Page 8: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)
Page 9: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Incontrast…

“WhyshouldaninterventioninDarfurnotturnouttobeatriggerthatescalatesratherthanreducesthelevelofviolenceasinterventioninIraqhasdone?”

—MahmoodMamdani, LondonReviewofBooks(2007)

Page 10: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Theseterribleeventsprovokesomeofthemostdifficultquestionsintheworld,andanswersarelimited

Therearelogicallyconsistentreasonstofavorinterventioninoneplacebutnotanother(e.g.SouthSudanvs.Darfur)

Oughtneighbors,militaryallies,aiddonors,andresponsiblegovernmentsrespondtocivilwarsoratrocities?

Thismoralquestionisaffectedbyaverypracticalquestions:

• Doanystrategieswork,underwhatcircumstances,andwhy?– Sanctions– Peacekeepingmissions– Regimechange– Internationaltrusteeship– Brokereddeals

• Whataretheunintendedconsequences?

Page 11: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

II.Someperspectiveonmodern-daycivilwars

Page 12: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

UnfortunatelyconflictslikethatinSouthSudanhavebeenenormouslycommonsinceWWII

Page 13: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Civilwarshavebeenespeciallycommonandlong-lastinginpost-colonialcountries

Page 14: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Likewise,thedecadesafterIndependenceinLatinAmericawerefollowedbyseveraldecadesofpoliticalinstability,warbetweenstates,andwarwithinthem

Bates, R.H., J.H. Coatsworth, and J.G. Williamson. "Lost decades: Post-independence performance in Latin America and Africa." Journal of Economic History 67.4 (2007): 917.

Page 15: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Howmightwethinkoftheseconflictsthroughthelensofelitebargaining?

• Ex-coloniesarelargelylimitedaccessorderswitheliteswhocontrolthemilitary,materialandmobilizationalpower

• Newlyindependenteliteswillhavetostrikebargainstodividepowerandtherentsinsociety– Therulesandorganizationsdevelopedwillshapewhoholdspowerand

controlsrentsnowandalsointothefuture

• Thesearehighstakesbargains,andthereisconsiderableuncertaintyaboutdifferentsides’power

• Itisalsodifficulttocrediblycommittobargains,ortoconstructtheinstitutions—thesystemsofrulesandorganizations—thatwillenablecrediblecommitmentstobemade

Page 16: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Anychangeinmaterial,military,mobilizationalpower,ortherentsavailable,threatenspastbargains

e.g.Considerthefollowingshocksinpost-colonialAfrica

• Abruptdepartureofacolonialpower

• Largespikesincommodityprices

• Economiccrisisandtheimpositionofausterityandstructuraladjustmentprograms

• Discoveryofnaturalresourcessuchasoil

• Supportforanoppositionorinsurgentgroupbyasuperpower

• SuddenendtoregimesupportwiththeunexpectedendoftheColdWar

• Warinaneighboringcountry

Page 17: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Bargainingcanbeespeciallydifficultinhighlycentralizedpoliticalsystems

• Colonialsystems,aswellaspost-Independenceinstitutionalchoices,meansthatmanycountriesarehighlycentralizedPresidentialsystems– Commitmentproblemsareespeciallydifficulttosolve

• Thepost-WWIIinternationalsystemgivesgroupsstrongincentivestotrytocapturethecentralstate– Principlesofterritorialsovereigntyandfixedborders– “Thethreehundredyearsbetween1648and1945constitutedaneraof

warbetweenstates;thelastsixtyyearsappeartobeanageofwarwithinstates.”—DavidArmitage,“CivilWars”(2017)

• Thus,inweaklyinstitutionalizedsystems,thePresidencyisahighstakesprizetobecaptured

Page 18: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

ThisiswhyAmosSawyeradvocatedformulti-levelgovernanceinLiberia

Page 19: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Sawyer:Africa’sstatepredation,personalrule,andconflictarerootedinitspost-independence

concentrationofpower

• Electionsarenotenough

• Infactallnational-levelssolutionsareflawed

• Governmentmustbeaccountableatmultiplelevels– Empowerlocalgovernmentjurisdictions(elections,budgetarypower)– Independent,task-specificbureaucraciescrossingspace– Regionalsecurityandeconomicapparatus

• EchoeselementsofEuropeanandAmericanconstitutionalprinciples– Checksandbalances

Page 20: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

III.Weighinginterventionsduring&aftercivilwar

Page 21: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Someforeigninterventionswewillconsider

1. Incentivesandopportunitiesfornegotiatedsettlements

2. Peacekeepingmissions

3. Trusteeships

4. (Inthenexttwoweeks)Fosteringstateanddemocraticinstitutionsafterwar

Page 22: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

1.Providingincentivesandopportunitiesfornegotiatedsettlements

a) Mediation– Oneofthemostcommon

featuresofpostWWIIwarsettlements

– Aimistofacilitatebargaining– Doesnotpromiserewardsor

threatenpunishment– Doesnotemployforceto

suppressorguaranteethesettlementofaconflict

b) Rewardingpeace– Creatingpeacedividends– Promotingrentsharingand

bribery

Page 23: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

(a)Mediatorsshapetheinformationavailableandthebargainingenvironmenttominimizebreakdowns

• Structurehowdisputantsinteractinabargainingsituation

• Provideaproceduralframeworkfordiscussions

• Ascertainfacts

• Relayinformationtoeitherside

• Facilitatecommunications

• Recommendconcessionsandproposepossiblesettlementsorcompromises

Beber, Bernd. "International mediation, selection effects, and the question of bias." Conflict Management and Peace Science 29.4 (2012): 397-424.

Page 24: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Sodoesmediationactuallychangeanything?

Mediationmorelikelyonsummervacations

• Mediatedandnon-mediatedconflictsresolveataboutthesamerate

• Butthereisaselectionproblem?whatifmediatorstackletheeasierormoredifficultconflicts?

• Usingsummermonthstoinstrumentformediation,Beber (2010)findsthatthepresenceofamediatorraisesthelikelihoodofasettlement

Page 25: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

(b)Theperilandpromiseofrewardingpeace

• Inbargaining,abiggerpiecanhavemixedeffects– Itcanmakeenforcingpeaceagreementseasier,sincethecostsof

defectingaregreater:ithelpsmakebargainsself-enforcing– Butitcanmakethebargainingstagelongerandmorefraught,because

thestakesarehigher

• Intheory,externalenforcementandincentives couldsmoothbargainingandfacilitateenforcement– Incentivestostayatthebargainingtable

• Cushylocationsandexpenseaccounts

– Incentivesnottodefectfromanagreementoncemade• Nobelpeaceprizes(fameandreputation)• Externaljudicialprocesses• Post-conflictreconstructionaid,tradedeals• Threatofsanctions

Page 26: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

RecallMukhopadhyay’s takeonAfghanwarlords:Apatrimoniallimitedaccessorderasaself-enforcingalternativetoconflict

ThepoliticalcenterinKabulwasnot(andhasneverbeen)acollectionofformal,bureaucraticinstitutionsworkinginconcerttopenetratetheunwieldyperipheryofwaywardwarlords,defiantmullahs,andrebellioustribalchieftains.

Itwas,instead,apoliticalcenteroperatinglargelyintheneopatrimonialimage,and,muchlikemanyofitspredecessors,forginglinkstothecountrysidethroughpartnershipswithpowerholderswhocouldsometimesexpandthescopeofthestatebyengagingit.

“

Jamaluddin Badar,Nuristangovernor(prosecuted)Lutfullah Mashal,Langhamgovernor(journalist&poet)Gul AghaSherzai,Nangarhar governor(famousMujahideencommander)

Page 27: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

AnotherexamplecomesfromtheformerSovietRepublics

“ Thecentralmechanismofcivilwarsettlementisbribery.

Page 28: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

UnlikeAfricanandLatinAmericandecolonization,Sovietdecolonizationresultedinsomewhatfewerwars,andgenerally

muchshorterwars

Page 29: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Negotiatedsettlementsasdealsamongelitesandwarlords(i.e.limitedaccessorders)

• Someofthepost-Sovietcircumstancesmayhavehelpedthemsolvetheinformationasymmetriesandcommitmentproblems– Ahistoryofrelativelystrongstates– ThethreatofinternationalinterventionbyRussianforces,or

clandestineRussiandeal-making

• Driscollarguesthatthepost-Sovietgovernmentsskilfullybuiltacoalitionofviolenceelitesbybuyingjustenoughoff– Thestatewastooweaktodisarmallofitsopponents– Certainwarlordswereprovidedwithofferstokeeptheirprivatearmies

tosecuretheirholdings,givingthemthecrediblethreatofvoice(acoup)orexit(areturntoviolenceorpredation)

– Warlordswerealsogivenspoils,suchasministryappointmentsandlargeoffshorebankaccounts

– Someoftheaidthat(indirectly)fundedregimecamefromtheWest

Page 30: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Whatdrivesthestabilityofsuchpatrimonialelitedeals?

Self-enforcingexamples• Willbemorelikelyin

environmentswithfewershockstopowerdistribution

• Helpfultohaveinstitutionsforpowersharingthatareflexibletochangesindefactopower– Asopposedtowinner-take-all

personalizedPresidentialsystems

• Competinggroupsareallowedtomaintaintheireconomicormilitarypower

• Theseenableelitestomorecrediblysplitrents

Externallyenforcedexamples• Thirdpartypolicesagreement

• Orenforcementintheshadowofenforcement(i.e.crediblethreatofpolicing)

• Usessanctionsortheirthreat

• Canofferaccesstoprivileges,potentiallythroughaiddollarsorresourcerents

• Orofferinternationalrecognitionandesteem

Page 31: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

2.Peacekeepingmissions

• Twokindsofmissions– Withconsentoffightingparties(ChapterVI)– Withoutconsent(ChapterVII)

• Lightestmissionsaretaskedwithmonitoringcease-fires,troopwithdrawals,orotherconditionsoutlinedinaceasefireagreement

• Overtimemissionshavebecome:– Moreaggressive(withoutconsent)– Widerinscope,goingbeyondobservationand

enforcementtoincludeelectoralsupervision,policeandsecurityforcesreform,institutionbuilding,economicdevelopment,andmore

• MostmissionscameaftertheColdWar

• VastmajorityofthesehavebeenstationedinAfrica

Page 32: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Fortna:Peacekeepingassociatedwithalowerriskofrenewedwarfare

Page 33: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Butdoespeacekeepingcausepeace?

Couldbeaselectionproblem• WhatiftheUNSecurityCouncil

picksthe“easy”cases?

• Thenpeacekeepingwouldcorrelatewithpeacebyconstruction

• Totest:collectdataonconditionslikelytoinfluencepeacekeeping

BUT,probablynotthecase• Historicaltiesandeconomic

interestsarenotassociatedwithpeacekeepingsupport

• Infact,peacekeepersseemtogotothetoughercases– Especiallywherebelligerents

can’tagreeonasolution

• Hence(ifanything)Fortnaunderstatestheimpactofpeacekeeping

Page 34: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Peacekeepingasrationalistwarfareinreverse

Createcommitment• Enforcecommitmentstopeace

– Militarydeterrenceandthreatofforce

• Providedirectincentivesforpeace– Conditionaidongoodbehavior– Providea‘peacedividend’

• Thecoreideaistoprovidetemporaryexternalenforcementofcommitmentsuntilself-enforcing commitmentscanbereached

Reduceinfoasymmetries• Reduceuncertaintyandmutual

fear– Monitoring,reporting,and

communication

• Preventandcontrolaccidents– Deterroguegroupsand‘spoilers’– Providelawandorder

Page 35: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

SomeexperiencesfromLiberia:Peacekeepersrespondingtoriots

Page 36: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Peacekeepersandpacifyingoccupiedrubberplantations

Page 37: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Whydoesn’tpeacekeepingseemtobeenoughinSouthSudan?

• Peacekeepingcanfailtokeepthepeaceformanyreasons– E.g.Atleastonesidecontinuestoseestrategicadvantageinfighting

• OnelimitationoftheSSudanesemissionisrelativelylowlevelsofforcesize,especiallygiventhesizeoftheterritory

South Sudan 15,777 Since July 2011 126 2.5

Page 38: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

3.Trusteeships

UN Mission in Liberia, 2008

Page 39: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Whatisatrusteeship?

• Broader,deeper,andlonger-lastingtypesofstatereconstructionefforts– Conceivedofasaninternationalpresenceoverperiodsofseveralyears

uptoseveraldecades– Includesthecreationofinternationalcivilianadministrations

• e.g.Liberia2003-08– UNoversawa2-yearperiodoftransitionalrule,a2005election,anda

2-3yeartransitiontoself-government– Setupparallelinternational-runbureaucraciesforeachgovernment

bureaucracy,needingapprovalfrombothformajordecisionsandspending,graduallyhandingoffcontrol

– Inlatestagessubsidizedsalariesofmanygovernmentbureaucratsinordertohelpattracttalent

– AtthesametimeUNpeacekeeperssubstitutedforanationalpoliceandmilitaryasbothwerereconstructed

Page 40: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

WecanconsidertheU.S.roleinAfghanistanaformoftrusteeship

Page 41: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Whatistheproblemforwhichtrusteeshipsarethesolution?

• Ifelitesorsocietyagreetoanewsetofpost-warorganizationsinstitutions,intheorytheycouldbenefitfromprotectionandencouragementintheirinfancy,e.g.– Independentandtask-specificbureaucracies– Professionalizedmilitaryandpoliceforce– Peacefulelections– Activelycompetingpoliticalparties– Decentralizationoftaxationandspendingdecisionstoregionsortowns– Newconstitutionaldivisionsofpower– Freemedia

Page 42: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Differentmodels

• Fullstatetrusteeship(Fearon &Laitin)– Callfortherecruitmentof“leadstates”withsignificantnational

securityoreconomicinterestsinacollapsedstatetoruninterventions– anexitstrategythatfocusessquarelyondevelopinglocalownershipfor

missionsthroughtheestablishmentoftaxationcapacity.

• Morespecific“sharedsovereignty”contracts(Krasner)– Createjointauthoritystructuresinspecificissueareas,suchasnatural

resourcemanagement(e.g.oil)– Combininginternationalactorswithdomesticinstitutions– Createcommitment

• Ideaistoexternallyenforceabargaintemporarily– Togetthroughaperiodwhendefectionislesscostly– Toallowformalandinformalrulestosolidify

Page 43: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Questionablewhetherinternationalactorshavethecapacityandwilltomaintainthecommitmenttoremainmorethan3-5years

Page 44: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Andworthasking:Whatseparatestrusteeshipfromimperialismorcolonialism?

• Theylikelyrequireaconsensusbetweenlocalandinternationalactorstosucceed– SomethingthatdoesnotappeartoexistinSouthSudanatpresent,but

didexistinLiberia

• Thisnarrowsthenumberofcaseswhereatrusteeshipcanbesuccessful

• TheUSAfghanmissionillustratesoneoftheperilsofatrusteeshipwithouttheconsentofallactors– Reducedlegitimacy– Potentialtobecomeatarget

Page 45: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Sustainedinterventionsalsocarrytheirownrisks

Allinterventionsareintrinsicallyunpredictable,chaotic,anduncertainandwillrapidlyconfoundwelllaidplansandcarefulpredictions

…sustainedintervention,therefore,oftenpreventslocalleadersfromtakingresponsibility;itdoesnotputpressureonpoliticianstosettlewiththeirenemies,orbroadenthekindsofdealstheycouldoffer.

Instead,itsometimesstrengthensthelegitimacyandpopularityofinsurgents.

“

Page 46: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Whatistheendgoal?Oneviewisthecompletetransformationofsociety:Nation-building

Themoresweepinga[nation-building]mission’sobjectives,themoreresistanceitislikelytoinspire.

Resistancecanbeovercome,butonlythroughawell-consideredapplicationofpersonnelandmoneyoverextendedperiodsoftime.

—RANDCorporation

“

Page 47: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Onbalance,thereisareasonableargumentforlimitedtrusteeships,atleastwhenmostpartiesaresupportive

• e.g.IninterveninginBosnia,thechairmanoftheUSJointChiefsofStaffexplainedtoCongress:“IFOR[theinternationalImplementationForce]willnotberesponsiblefortheconductofhumanitarianoperations.Itwillnotbeapoliceforce.Itwillnotconductnation-building.”

• In1996theNationalSecurityAdviserexplained:“Itisadangeroushubristobelievewecanbuildothernations.Butwhereourowninterestsareengagedwecanhelpnationsbuildthemselves—andgivethemtimetomakeastartatit.”

Page 48: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

IV.Understandingmassatrocitiesandtheirprevention

Page 49: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Masskillingsversuscivilwars

• Almostallmasskillingsinhistorywereperpetratedbygovernmentormilitarilypowerfulrebelgroupskillinglargenumbersofanidentifiablegroupintheircountry

• SinceWorldWarIIsome50episodesofmasskillingshaveledtobetween12and25millionciviliancasualtiesandby2008haveinducedthedisplacementof42millionpeople

• Mostmasskillingeventshavetakenplacetowardstheendorafterwars,especiallycivilwars– Between1960and2000roughlyathirdofallcivilwars(50outof152)

featuredmasskillings,whileinnoneoftheinterstatewars(23)weretheremasskillings

Esteban, Joan, Massimo Morelli, and Dominic Rohner. "Strategic mass killings." Journal of Political Economy 123.5 (2015): 1087-1132.

Page 50: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Numberofmasskillingperpetrators,byregion

Page 51: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Numberoffatalities,excludingRwanda

Page 52: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

TheRwandangenocidestandsout

Page 53: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Genocideversusmasskillings

• Thisislargelyaquestionofscaleandintent.Genocideisanattempttodestroyanentirepeople—usuallyanethnic,national,orreligiousgroup

Page 54: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Thelogicofmasskillingsandgenocide

• Masskillingsareusuallyanattempttoreducethesizeofopponentgroups,eitherdirectlyorbycausingrefugeeoutflowsanddisplacement

• Killinglargenumbersofagroupisonewaytoavoidhavingtobargainwiththeminfuture– Reducestherentsyouhavetosharewiththem– Thoughitcanreduceproductiveoutputthatdependsonlabor

• Thisislikelyonereasonmasskillingsaremorelikelyinnaturalresourcedependentcountries

• Masskillingsarealsosignificantlymorelikelyafterrecentdemocratizationandinsmall,ethnicallypolarizedcountries

Esteban, Joan, Massimo Morelli, and Dominic Rohner. "Strategic mass killings." Journal of Political Economy 123.5 (2015): 1087-1132.

Page 55: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Rwanda,April-July1994:Anattempttopermanentlychangethebalanceofpowerinthecountry

• In1990,aminorityTutsirebelgroup,theRwandanPatrioticFront(RPF),beginacivilwar

• In1993,internationalpressureleadstoaceasefireandbeginningsofapowersharingagreement

• HutuPresidentdiesinaplaneaccident

• ThenextdaytheHutueliteinitiateahighlyplannedmasskillingofTutsis

• Roughly70%(800,000)ofminorityTutsiswerekilledbymajorityHutus

• AsmallChapterVIUNpeacekeepingmissionisorderednottointerfere

• EndedwhenRPFtookthecapital

Page 56: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

ThefailuretointerveneinRwandaandamasskillinginBosnia(Srebrenica)helpedtobuildaglobalpolitical

constituencytointerveneinmasskillings

PresidentBillClintonreferredtothefailureoftheU.S.tointerveneinthegenocideasoneofhismainforeignpolicyfailings:

“Idon'tthinkwecouldhaveendedtheviolence,butIthinkwecouldhavecutitdown.AndIregretit.”

Page 57: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Thefollowingdecadeseesanumberoffairlysuccessfulhumanitarianinterventionstoendlongrunningconflicts

• Bosnia– The1995Srebrenicamassacreof8000Bosniak civiliansisfollowedbya

militaryinterventionthatbroughttoanendthreeyearsofwar

• Kosovo– FromMarchtoJune1999,NATObombedYugoslaviatocompelitto

withdrawitsforcesfromthebreakawayterritoryofKosovo,afterwhichYugoslaviaagreestowithdrawtroopsandallowaforeignmilitaryin

• SierraLeone– InMay2000asmallBritishforcebolsteraUNpeacekeepingforceand

theSierraLeoneanArmyagainstrebels,helpingleadtoaceasefire

• Liberia– AunionofWestAfricanstatesandacrediblethreatofUSmilitary

interventionhelpstopersuaderebelgroupstoaceasefireandPresidentCharlesTaylortoenterexileinNigeria

Page 58: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Itispartlythesesuccesses,andthehauntingfailuresofRwandaandSrebrenica,thatleadtostrong“liberalinterventionist”supportfortheIraqWarandthetopplingofadangerousdictator,SaddamHussein

Page 59: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Ofcourseweknowhowthatturnsout,withsevereconsequencesforthereputationofhumanitarian

intervention

Documentedciviliandeathsfromviolencebyday,viairaqibodycount.org

Page 60: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Still,thereremainsaconstituencyforstoppingmasskillingR2P:Responsibilitytoprotect

• AcommitmentendorsedbyallUNmemberstatesin2005

• Recognizesthattherearelimitstosovereignnoninterference

• Aframeworkforemployingmeasuresthatalreadyexisttopreventatrocities– Mediation,economicsanctions,and

chapterVIIpowers,etc

• AuthoritytoemployforcerestssolelywithUNSecurityCouncil

• Incontrastto“humanitarianintervention”:theuseofforcewithoutSecurityCouncilauthorization

Page 61: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Thecaseforinterveningagainstmassatrocities

• Third-partyinterventiontostopatrocitiesaredesignedtomakeitmorecostlyandlesseffectiveforstatestocommitatrocities

• Thecrediblethreatofaninterventionshouldmeanthatstatesaremorereluctanttocommitatrocities

• Theaudiencefortheseinterventionsisnotjustthepresentkillersbutallfuturepotentialones

• Mostdiscussionfocusesonhowtomakethethreatsmorecredible

• Thenumberandlengthofcivilwarsandmassatrocitieshavedeclinedoverthepast20years,asthenormsupportinginterventionhastakenhold

Page 62: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Caution:Themoralhazardprobleminmassatrocities

• Theprospectofinterventioncouldencourageweakgroupstorebel,andeventoprovokestateatrocitiesinordertotriggerinternationalintervention

• Perversely,thiscouldactuallyincreasetheprobabilityofwarandatrocities

• KosovoLiberationArmy(KLA)leadersopenlyacknowledgedthattheywouldlosewithoutinterventionbuthopedtoprovokeSerbianatrocitiesinordertodrawintheinternationalcommunity.

• Intheory,thisshouldnotoutweighthereductioninkillingsfromintervention

Page 63: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Partialsuccessstories:Kenya2007/08

Page 64: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Coted’Ivoire2011

Page 65: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Libya2011

Page 66: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

OfcoursetherearecasesthatcouldneverbeauthorizedbyUNSC,suchasSyria

Page 67: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

V.Thecaseforincrementalisminintervention

Page 68: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Balancingtheevidenceandthemoralimperative

“WearecomfortablewithBillClinton’smottofrom1995:Wecannotstopallwarforalltimebutwecanstopsomewars.Wecannotsaveallwomenandallchildrenbutwecansavemanyofthem.Wecan’tdoeverythingbutwemustdowhatwecan.”

Page 69: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Howhaveyoudefinedtheproblemandtheobjective?

Incremental• Timelimited

• Aimingtofosterbargainsthatstophostilitiesbetweengroups

• Raisethecostsforarulinggrouptocommitatrocities

Ambitious• Deposingelitescoalitioninpower

• Nationbuilding

• Pursuitofdemocracy

• Endingcorruption

Page 70: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Someregimeswillbeeasiertooinfluencethanothers

Lowcapacity• Centralizedpowerstructure

controlledbynarrowelite

• Popularorganizationandsupportbaselimited

• Limitedresourcesorresourcesthatareeasilyshutoff(e.g.capturetherefinery,enddiamondtrade,cutoffremittances,etc.)

Highcapacity• diffusepowerstructurewitha

broad-basedelitecoalition

• Large,centrallycontrolledconventionalandinternalsecurityforcesembeddedinbureaucraticinstitutions.

• Accesstofinancethatishardtocutoff(e.g.fromastrongexternalbacker)

• Widespreadsocialorganization

Page 71: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Thisisaproblematicwayoflookingattheworld

Themoresweepinga[nation-building]mission’sobjectives,themoreresistanceitislikelytoinspire.

Resistancecanbeovercome,butonlythroughawell-consideredapplicationofpersonnelandmoneyoverextendedperiodsoftime.

—RANDCorporation

“

Page 72: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Internationalcommunityisnotalwaysawareofitsownweaknesses

• “Internationalpolicy-makersalwayshaveamuddledandhalf-understoodpictureofthecountrybeforeintervention,perhapsanequallymuddledandhalf-understoodpictureoftheirownsocietyintheWest,andsomegenerallydoubtfulguessesabouthowtogetfromonetotheother”

• Internationalcommunityismuchweakerthantheyimagine– Haveunparalleledresourcesandeducationanddriveand

resourcefulness– Isolatedfromlocalsocietyandignorantofcontext– Preytomisleadingabstracttheories– Lacklegitimacyandlocalsupport– Underestimateandmisunderstandlocalleaders,andmisundterstand

abilitiestocompromise

Page 73: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Knaus calls“principledincrementalism”andStewart,“passionatemoderation.”

“Thebestwayofminimizingthedangerofanyinterventionistoproceedcarefully,toinvestheavilyinfindingoutaboutthespecificcontext,particularlyaftertheintervention,andtodefineconcreteandnotabstractgoals.

Powerandauthoritymustbegiventolocalleadershipthroughelectionsassoonaspossible.Onlylocalleadershavethenecessaryingredientofknowingthesituationwell,overmanyyearsandinallkindsofconditions;onlytheycangetaroundthedangersthatcannotbeavoided,andskillfullyrespondtothem.”

Page 74: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Perpetualpeace…isnoemptyideabutataskthat,graduallysolved,comessteadilyclosertoitsgoal.

—ImmanuelKant,“TowardPerpetualPeace”inPractical

Philosophy

“

Page 75: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

VI.Warandpoliticaldevelopment

Page 76: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

WhilethereislittlereasontobelievethatwarwouldhaveexactlythesamedomesticeffectsinAfricatodayasitdidinEuropeseveralcenturiesago,itisimportanttoaskifdevelopingcountriescanaccomplishintimesofpeacewhatwarenabledEuropeancountriestodo.

Iconcludethattheyprobablycannotbecausefundamentalchangesineconomicstructuresandsocietalbeliefsaredifficult,ifnotimpossible,tobringaboutwhencountriesarenotbeingdisruptedorundersevereexternalthreat .

—JeffreyHerbst,“WarandtheStateinAfrica”

“

Page 77: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

“atsomepoint,therealityofdisintegratingdysfunctionalAfricanstatesstandsinsuchcontrasttothelegalfictionofsovereignstatesthatexperimentationwithregardtonewstatesisinorder.”

- JeffHerbst,StatesandPowerinAfrica,p.266

BasedonHerbst,Weinstein,Tilly: ShouldtherestoftheworldstepbackandallowthedisintegrationofAfricanstates?

Page 78: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

RecalltheclassicanswerfromCharlesTilly:“Warsmadestatesandstatesmadewar”

Threatofwar:Rulersforcedtodefendborders

Increasetaxcollectionandmilitaryrecruitment

Expandrepresentative

ruleandbureaucracy

Strongstatessurvive, theweakperish

Page 79: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Warisaselectivesurvivalmechanism(Tilly1985,1990)

• TechnologygrowthàWarincreasinglycapitalintensiveandexpensive

• Statesneedlarge,effectivebureaucraciesto:– Administerevermorecomplexandexpensivewars– Organizerecruitment(includingconscription)– Raisetaxes

• Intheabsenceofstrongstatecapacitythereisapropensitytocollapseorbeconquered

• Statesthatcouldnotwagemodernwarfareweresimplyweededout

Page 80: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

1962-86 1986-20??

WeinsteinasthemodernTilly?Ugandaasanexampleof“autonomousrecovery”

Page 81: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Conditionsunderlying“Autonomousrecovery”Tilly-esqueaccountofincidentalinstitutions

Needforrevenue

Statebuilding

Stateundermining

War Noexternalresources Termination

Raisetaxesbybuildingpopularsupport

Decisivemilitaryvictory

Negotiatedpeace

Raisefundsfromnaturalresources

Buildacoalitiontoconsolidate

power

Receivefundingfromexternalsources

Existentialthreat

Onlythestrong

organizationssurvive

Weakorganizations

muddlethrough

Page 82: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Sodoonly waranddecisivevictorymakethestate?

or

Aretherealternative,morepeacefulpathstostronganddemocraticstates?

Page 83: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Bates,Coatsworth&Williamson:Therearecoststothewarlikepath

• Whatdidwarandautocracydoin19thcenturyLatinAmerica?– Lostoutonglobaltradeandindustrializationboom– Aggressiveantitradeandantimarket policies– Waroccupiedmostofgovernmentspendingandbankruptedmany

nations– Sacrificedeconomicgrowth

• Nottomentionthehumancost

Page 84: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Arethereotherwaystosolvecommitmentproblemsandinformationasymmetries

Forexample…

• Negotiateddistributionofrents

• Institutionbuilding&democracypromotion

• Peacekeeping

• Trusteeship

Page 85: Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · war between states; the last sixty years appear to be an age of war within states.” —David Armitage, “Civil Wars” (2017)

Maybethe“technology”ofstate-buildinghasadvanced?

• Diffusionofgovernance“technologies”– Parliamentarysystems– Constitutionaldemocracies– Civilsocietyorganization– Democracypromotion

• Diffusionofnorms– Respectforhumanrights– Pressandcivilsociety

freedoms– Internationallymonitored

elections

• Training– Militaries– Parliaments

• Accesstofinance– Worldbankcreditforlong

terminvestments

• Internationalsanctionsandpressure


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