oracle crystall ball

Introduction to Crystal Ball

BINARY SEMANTICS Ltd.

• we are a client centric global software development company providing software development, research, web development, IT outsourcing services along with optimization and mathematical modeling solutions and consulting services for your mission-critical business challenges. We have global operations across USA, Canada, Europe and India and have over 125 satisfied customers.

• We have very strong software engineering processes and our operations have been certified as ISO 9001 and Q9001:2000 by American Quality Assessor (AQA) for software development and supporting activities.

www.crystalball.com1


Data Mining

• TIBCO Spotfire Miner

• SAS

Statistical Modelling

• Tibco Spotfire Splus

• SAS

• JMP

Risk Analysis & Simulation

• Oracle Crystal Ball

Optmization

• LINDO API

• LINGO

• What’s Bestwww.binarysemantics.com

List of Solutions for Data Analysis

Econometrics•EViews•LIMDEP•NLOGIT

Quality – Six Sigma & CMMI•SigmaXL•Pareto Pro

•JMP


Oracle crystal ball• Oracle Crystal Ball is the leading spreadsheet-based

application suite for predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. It gives you unparalleled insight into the critical factors affecting risk. With Crystal Ball, you can make the right tactical decisions to reach your objectives and gain a competitive edge under even the most uncertain market conditions.



• Its used by customers from a broad range of Industries such as aerospace, financial services, manufacturing, oil and gas, pharmaceutical, utilities, environmental sciences etc.

• Six sigma in manufacturing mainly & to some extent in BPO. CMM is one of the quality area in s/w areas.


Crystal Ball Training


Models and Simulation



What is a model?

• Replication or representation of a real system

– Manufacturing-production models

– Planning-queuing models

– Financial-forecasting models

• Spreadsheet model

– Set of mathematical and logical relationships

– Vary conditions and assumptions to test scenarios Deterministic: data assumed to be known with certainty

Probabilistic/stochastic



What is Simulation?

• Process of experimenting with a model to measure performance and behavior of inputs in a system

• Gain general insight into the nature of a process

• Identify problems with system design

• Manage risk by understanding costs and benefits



The Five Steps of Model Development

1. Develop the system flow diagram or algorithm.

2. Write an Excel spreadsheet to model the system.

3. Use Crystal Ball to model assumptions and forecasts.

4. Run the simulation and analyze the output.

5. Improve the system model and/or make decisions.


Getting Started with Crystal Ball



Getting Started

• Launching Crystal Ball

• Basic Terminology

• Navigation


11

Launching Crystal Ball

• Launch automatically with Excel after Crystal Ball installation

– Start>Programs>Crystal Ball 7>Application Manager

– Check the Crystal Ball box

• Start Manually

– Start menu

– Crystal Ball



Basic Terminology

Crystal Ball Term Common Names

Assumption Input, X, independent variable, random variable, probability distribution.

Decision Variable Controlled variable

Forecast Output, Y, f(X), dependent variable


Analysis and Presentation of Results



Analysis and Presentation of Results

• Running the Simulation

• Forecast Chart

• Overlay Chart

• Trend Chart

• Custom Report Generation

• Extract Data

• Saving Results


Basic Crystal Ball Tools



Basic Crystal Ball Tools

• Tornado Chart - senstivity of a particularoutput cell.

• Batch Fit - auto fit p. dist. To multiple data

series.

• Correlation Matrix - view and edit full corr. Matrix for

a selected set of assumptions.

oracle crystall ball

Technology

crystal ball

model

manufacturing

assumptions

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introduction

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simulation