OPTIONS FOR EMISSION AVIATION INVENTORIES

The Spanish Civil Aviation View

Copenhagen 17-18 may-2004

Alfredo Iglesias

Fuel sales

Fuel consumption

Data from airlines

Domestic

International

Modelization with airports and ATC data

National or international models

Diferents approach Differents Outcomes

+/-25%1990-2003

OPTIONS TO INVENTORIES

1.-

2.-National

International

SAGE, AERO 2K, EUROCONTROL

Assumptions and Considerations

• Neither total fuel consumption nor distribution by national/international will produce similar results with the use of both options: fuel sales or fuel consumption

• UNFCCC: DOCUMENT: “Compilation of data on emissions from international aviation”: Average differences 1992 –1999 between AERO and UNFCCC: -15.5 and -12.2. Range between different countries between –43.9 Hungary to 77.9 Finland

• Effect of tankering is higher that is assumed. In generl economic and fuel data available from the airlines is very reduced for terms of confidentiality.

• The inventories methodology need take into account the potential allocation and reduction means. (Viability for future use)

Dimension of tankering (Data 2000)

• Differentiation of prices between airports promote the use of tankering

• Examples in difference of price :

• Madrid- Sto. Domingo.-157$/Tm

• Londres-Moscu.-119$/Tm

• Roma-Arlanda.-19$

• Madrid-Zurich.- 20$

• Limits to profitability 12-15$ in European flights and 25 $ Intercontinental

• Internal flights in Spain . Fuel price differences in airports up to 40%

• Quantification of fuel increase: 4% of transported fuel (Tankered) per flight hour

TANKERING

• Example: A-320 Madrid -.Zurich • 4% of increase in total fuel consumption for a

flight of two hours.• Real Example for one airline: (data for year 1998)

– Quantity of fuel Tankering for an airline .-90.000TM/year. Aproximatly 20% of fuel consumption

– Extra fuel consumption.- 6500Tm– Benefits: 4 million $ – 500 Kg extra weight in an airplane produce 276.000 kg

CO2 emissions per year

CONCLUSION

• The current airplanes have extra capacity to increase fuel tankering.

• The tankering is apply in all airlines of the world.• With this perspective the inventories by fuel sold

will maintain in all the case an important difference with the consumption.

• New rules or penalization can promote the increase in the tankering and in the consumption

• Short connection time, and other operational factors promote also the tankering

Modelization of fuel consumption

• Several model have capabilities for modelization: AERO, AERO 2K, SAGE, EUROCONTROL AIM3E .

• We need model with capabilities to analyze the potential means for reduce emissions

ONE EXAMPLE: ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS ASSOCIATED WITH CNS/ATM INITIATIVES

• European Simulation (Metric Tonnes/Day)– Baseline scenario (without CNS/ATM

improvements)

• European Simulation (Metric Tonnes/Day)– Baseline scenario (without CNS/ATM

improvements) (EUROCONTROL/ICAO DATA

EEC 1999 2005 2010 2015Flights 22,175 29,271 35,083 40,707Fuel (tons) 99,219 125,987 144,356 155,744CO2 (tons) 312,145 396,734 454,577 490,438

Optimized Flights

FL240(2007)FL150(10/15)

SUA

FlightProfile

GroundTrack

RVSM (2007/10)Cruise Climb (2015)

Descents:2005: procedural2010+: optimal

Baseline TrajectoryOptimized Trajectory >1000nmi - minimum fuel to meet schedule.

<1000nmi - shortest distance around active SUA.

ONE EXAMPLE: ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS ASSOCIATED WITH CNS/ATM INITIATIVES

Daily Savings for 2015 in Metric Tonnes (ECAC)

Phase of Flight Fuel HC CO NOx CO2Cruise 5,300 31 148 153 16,700 below 3000 ft 1,800 1 6 16 5,700 Surface 300 1 7 1 1,000 Total 7,400 33 161 170 23,400 Percent Savings 5% 12% 12% 8% 5%

Allocations-Considerations

• Potential participation for aviation in the trade emissions scheme- In study or...( Recommended by ICAO, CAEP-6, European airlines agreement)

• If the allocation is to country where the fuel is sold it means promote the option to tankering

• Allocation to the nationality of airline: Identified in a easy and effective manner who can and have responsibility for reduce fuel consumption.

• Allocation to the country of destination or departure: ¿Is it possible this option for a international transport using a hub scheme?

CONCLUSIONS

• For the aviation sector in Spain: OUR OPINION

• INVENTORIES- MODEL-ALLOCATION - REDUCTION CONTROL- MEANS FOR REDUCTION:

• The five keys elements need to be discussed in conjunction for obtain the final objective: