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2013-10-08
Optimizing energy production in sugarcane biorefineries in Brazil
8 October, 2013
Dilip Khatiwada, PhD Energy and Climate Studies/Department of Energy Technology
KTH – Royal Institute of Technology
KTH Energy and Climate Studies www.ecs.kth.se 1
KTH Energy and Climate Studies www.ecs.kth.se 2
Introduction
Sugarcane energy systems
Research questions ???
Methodology: BeWhere model
Technological options
Data sources/inputs of the model
Results and discussion
Conclusion
Presentation outline
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Introduction
Sugarcane energy systems in Brazil
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Sugarcane and ethanol production in Brazil
Sugarcane for sugar: 44% Sao Paulo contributed
with 58% (360 MT) 56% of ethanol is
produced in Sao Paulo We can convert all
sugarcane mills located in SP into biorefineries dedicated for energy production (i.e., juice ethanol, bioelectricity and/or second generation ethanol
Sugar can be produced from other states/regions in Brazil
Source: UNICA, 2012
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Sugarcane
Bagasse
Trash
Juice
Ethanol Sugar Molasses
Electricity
Energy equivalent: 1 tonne of sugarcane = 1.2 barrel oil (source: UNICA, 2008) 1.2 boe = 7034 MJ = 168 koe
25-30%
25-35%
One tonne
9-14% 4-5%
90-130 liters/t-cane
by-product
100-150 kWh/t-cane
Sugarcane bioenergy systems
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Sugarcane biorefinery
Adopted from Grisi et al. (2011) with modifications
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Research questions???
How can we optimally produce energy services from sugarcane biomass in Brazil?
Does 2nd generation ethanol compete with bioelectricity production?
How will policy influence production of 2nd generation ethanol in Brazil and export to the EU?
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A schematic diagram of the BeWhere model for sugarcane biorefinery in Brazil
It is a mixed integer linear program, techno-economic model
Objective function is to minimize Σ(Total cost) + Σ(Total
emissions) * (Carbon cost)
It provides the optimum locations of biorefinery in terms of technology, investment, prices, and total fuels chain environmental burden/costs
Does not maximize the profit of a plant but considers the total cost of the whole supply chain for the welfare of the region
The BeWhere model for Brazil
Optimizing biorefinery for energy production
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Size and location of existing sugarcane mills in the state of Sao Paulo in Brazil (60% of the total cane production)
Feedstock availability Size and location sugarcane
mills Costs and emissions of biomass
production Annualized investment and
O&M costs Conversion efficiencies Costs and emissions during
biomass/biofuel transportation Emission factors of avoided
transport fuel and/or power Prices of fuel and power
Data source/model inputs
The BeWhere model for Brazil
Optimizing biorefinery for energy production
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Sugarcane biorefinery: schematic diagram
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Data source/model inputs
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Share of lifecycle costs and emissions in the biofuel supply chain
Results of the reference scenario
Optimal to produce 2nd generation ethanol in all plants
2nd generation ethanol export contributes to 2.5% of the transport fuel share in the EU
Avoided emissions: 81 MtCO2eqy-1 (i.e. 79% savings)
Key findings
Optimizing biorefinery for energy production
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Scenario analysis
Optimizing biorefinery for energy production
Investment and O&M costs
Plant efficiencies: Technological innovation
Price of fuels and power
Biofuel support
Carbon tax
Biofuel target in EU and Brazil
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Export is set by gasoline price in the EU Type of biorefinery highly sensitive to electricity source (i.e. natural gas
or coal) in Brazil High 2nd generation ethanol investment cost favors bioelectricity option
Type of marginal electricity (left) and investment cost (right) with low EU fossil price
Optimizing biorefinery for energy production
Market and technological impacts
Key findings
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Increase of biofuel support, plants shift towards 2nd generation ethanol option
Increase of carbon tax, bioelectricity option selected
Impact of biofuel support (left) and carbon tax (right)
Optimizing biorefinery for energy production
Policy impacts
Key findings
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Biofuel support and higher fossil fuel price in the EU help promote the production and export of 2nd generation ethanol from Brazil
Increased price of electricity from fossil sources will promote bioelectricity production
Technological innovation/improvement in conversion efficiency will determine 2nd generation ethanol and/or bioelectricity option
Conclusions
Optimizing biorefinery for energy production
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Further investigation on stand alone, clustered, and integrated sugarcane biorefineries
To develop the BeWhere model for identifying the optimum size/location of the future sugarcane biorefineries, also considering alternative configurations and feedstocks
Linkage to the BeWhere Europe model
Future works
Optimizing biorefinery for energy production
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
The Swedish Research Council Formas
Collaborators and Funders
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Thanks for your attention ! Comments & questions are welcome !!
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