optical data storage roadmap 2005-2015 x rgzech@advent

The 2005-15 Roadmap Optical Storage for

Consumer Electronics

Richard G. Zech, Ph.D.

Di Chen, Ph.D. Pil Sun Zech

The ADVENT Group 130 Cresta Road

Colorado Springs, CO 80906 719.633.4377 TEL 719.635.4410 FAX

[email protected]

December 2004

mailto:[email protected]

© The ADVENT Group 2004 p-2

The 2005-15 Roadmap Optical Storage for Consumer Electronics

The ADVENT Group

The Roadmap for Optical Storage for Consumer Electronics is published annually. It covers the entire range of optical storage products with an emphasis on CD and DVD. Technology, applications, shipments and markets are emphasized. This year future technologies are a primary focus. Blu-ray and HD DVD, plus emerging technologies for next generation products, are compared to alternative technologies. UV and X-ray light sources are considered for the first time. Forecasts for new products are made out to 2015. An expanded version of this report is included for the first time in the National Electronics Manufacturers Initiative (NEMI) bi-annual roadmap. Much valuable technical information was obtained from CeBIT 2004, ODS 2004, MediaTech 2004, and SPIE 2004 Annual Meeting. We acknowledge with pleasure the support of MediaTech USA and SPIE. A debt is owed for the insights provided by Dr. Kevin Curtis (CTO, InPhase Technologies), Dr. Dave Davies (CTO, DataPlay), Mr. Hideyoshi Horimai (CTO, Optoware), Mr. Andy Marken (President, Marken Communications), and Mr. Nigel Street (CEO, Plasmon plc). ADVENT provides consulting and expert witness services, mainly in the areas of computer storage, photonics, and consumer electronics. ADVENT also publishes in-depth reports on major trade shows and technical conferences including CES, CeBIT, CLEO, COMDEX/Fall, Cable, MediaTech, NAB, ODS/ISOM, and OFC, technology roadmaps, and white papers on consumer electronics technology. It also provides technical analyses and product information on computer storage, digital cameras, and flat panel displays. Please direct all questions and comments about this report to the undersigned.

Dick Zech ________________________ Richard G. Zech, Ph.D. President & Managing Principal December 03, 2004


Table of Contents

Section Topic page Executive Summary 4

1 Introduction 5

2 Industry Overview 8 2.1 CD and DVD 8 2.2 Blue Laser Disc - Consumer 8 2.3 Blue Laser Disc - Computer 9 2.4 Small Form Factor Disc (SFFD) 10 2.5 Magneto-Optical 10 2.6 Large Format 12

3 Market Dimensions 18

4 Roadmap Technologies and Product Predictions 27

4.1 Advanced Technologies Supporting the Roadmap 28

4.2 Key Component Attributes 28

5 Future Technology Needs 42

Appendix Glossary 44


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Optical storage in the form of CD, DVD, and its successors is one of the most important in consumer electronics (CE). It is a diverse and growing family of products for audio-video publication and recording, software and database distribution, and data backup and archiving. No storage technology provides more low-cost, application-specific solutions for consumer electronics. The 2003 ex-factory revenues for optical storage drives and media is almost $25 billion. Over the past 30 years, optical storage has also offered the IT market solutions ranging from 3.5" MO and 5.25" MO to 12" and 14" WORM, both stand-alone and optical disc library resident. In 1982, a family of 120mm disc read-only products was launched, starting with CD-DA. DVD followed in 1995 .Today, third generation "blue laser" products with more than 20 GB capacity per storage layer are just entering the market. These products form the consumer electronics core of the optical storage business. Holographic memories systems are also poised for shipment within the next 12 months. Optical storage highlighted in the roadmap period 2005-2015 has the potential to reach capacity levels of 200 GB for both read-only (replicated) and recordable/rewritable (WO/RW) media on multilayer 120mm diameter discs. UDO (Ultra Density Optical) technology using WO and RW 130mm phase change discs could reach a capacity of 240 GB before 2015. Optical storage dominates today's AV products, but it is not without competition. Many alternative approaches to today’s established data storage technologies will develop over the next decade. These include MRAM (magnetic random access memory), probe-based, molecular, fluorescent multilayer optical, near-field optical and 3-D holographic storage components and systems. The impact on the design and performance of MEMS and nanotechnology on data storage is expected to be significant. Although the future of optical storage appears assured for at least the next 10 years, the technology has reached a critical plateau. The wavelength limit (405nm) of laser diodes in the conventional optical domain (400-700nm) has been reached, as have the practical limits of objective lens numerical aperture (0.85) and rotation speed (about 10,000 rpm). New technologies and materials that provide super resolution and low-noise operation at UV wavelengths will be required to drive the future of "optical" (using an extended definition) storage beyond the projections of the current roadmap.


1 INTRODUCTION Optical storage is the most diverse of storage technologies. It features read-only (RO), write-once (WO), and rewritable (RW) media and media removability. It enables consumer electronics (CE) products with high market appeal, ranks only after magnetic disc drive penetration in the storage suites of PCs and workstations, and can be used for image and document capture, near-line storage, AV (audio-video) editing, and archiving in professional and enterprise applications. Attempts to find profitable market niches for optical storage over the past 40 years has led to a spectrum of technologies and disc sizes and types, competing with one another for a broad range of applications. However, very few optical storage products succeeded in being mass storage that achieved mass markets. Only highly standardized1 products have achieved significant market penetration. From about 1965 to 19872 many thought that rewritable optical storage would challenge and eventually displace magnetic storage. The extraordinary improvement in price/performance from 1987 to today made magnetic disc the dominant (general purpose) storage technology. Higher cost and lower throughput (data transfer rates and access times) make it impossible for optical storage to displace magnetic storage from its market segments. As a result, optical storage has evolved solutions that emphasize its strengths: (1) standardized, removable replicated media, (2) write-once (recordable), removable, crash-proof, and archival (long life) media, and (3) near-line storage using an optical disc library (ODL; also, "jukebox"). Optical storage for CE (personal entertainment) storage, on the other hand, was conceived for specific consumer applications (primarily, digital audio and video in the forms of read-only and recordable/rewritable CD and DVD media). Strict media standards permit specific applications to be implemented by means of signal processing, logical and applications level software, and packaging; for example, DVD-Video is a CE application of DVD-ROM (a computer storage technology), not a new format. Recall that a CD-DA replicated in 1982 can still be played today, more than 20 years later. The same will likely be true for SDTV (standard definition television) DVD discs and successors. The successful introductions of CD-DA in 1982, CD-ROM in 1984, and DVD in 1995 ensured that almost all development resources would be focused on optical storage for CE and PC/Workstation applications. Computer data optical storage applications declined rapidly in the 1990s due both to the incredible achievements of magnetic disc storage and an unacceptably slow improvement in price/performance. Today, only Fujitsu’s highly reliable 3.5"/86mm ISO MO (magneto-optical) disc product line (offering 0.64, 1.3 and 2.4 GB media capacities) survives and prospers. The robust 5.25"/130mm ISO MO (magneto-optical) disc product line (offering 5.2 and 9.1 GB media capacities) has reached the end of its technology life, and is slowly being phased out of production. Plasmon’s 30 GB UDO (Ultra Density Optical) 5.25"/130mm phase change product line was first shipped in late 2003. Although its to early to

1 Both public (for example, ISO and ECMA) and proprietary (for example, Sony/Philips "books" and the DVD Forum)

specifications/standards have been promulgated. 2 In 1987 Maxtor introduced a 780 MB FH magnetic disc drive. For the first time, the number of magnetic disc

surfaces per spindle trumped the track density advantage of optical disc media. Consequently, magnetic disc drives would thereafter have the greater “box” capacity, an advantage likely to last for the indefinite future.


speculate on reliability and market acceptance, UDO is generally acknowledged to be the successor to both 5.25" MO and 12" WORM storage. Capacity and throughput for optical storage will continue to improve, though it appears more slowly than for magnetic storage. Recall that optical disc capacity increases not continuously, as is the case for magnetic disc and tape, but in distinct leaps (for example, 650 MB CD to 4.7 GB DVD). Moreover, optical media are removable, which in itself mandates more conservative capacity targets. Throughput for optical storage devices, as defined by data rate and access time, is well behind that of magnetic disc. However, for the mainstream CE applications of optical disc hardware and media (CD and DVD), this has little consequence. The media and supporting drives are designed for specific applications (music and video playback being the best known). And even for PC/workstation applications, few would argue that installing a 50 MB program from a CD-ROM disc is inferior to installing it from a set of 3.5" floppy discs, even if the CD-ROM reader sustained data rate is less than 20% of the typical desktop hard disc drive. Optical drives and media designed for generic computer data storage (for example, 3.5" and 5.25" MO) aim to satisfy a higher performance standard The technology of optical storage has advanced significantly over the past 10 years. Optics, laser diodes, servo controls, media manufacturing quality, coding, and read/write channels have all improved greatly. An important example is the "blue" laser diode. In the early 1990s operation outside the laboratory of GaN-based blue laser diodes was not thought feasible. However, by 1995 Japanese chemical company Nichia (Tokushima, Japan) demonstrated the first stable devices. By 2001, the company was sampling 405nm, 5 mW laser diode kits for $5,000. Today, 405nm 30 mW laser diodes sell for less than $50 OEM. Laser diodes with pulsed output power of 200 mW and CW (continuous wave) output power of 100 mW are also available. Moreover, operating life now exceeds 10,000 hours. Blue laser diodes are the focus of and driving technology behind the optical storage products profiled in the near-term and future roadmaps. The market and applications profiles for optical storage can be defined by four primary segments (this definition is intended to be broadly inclusive): Ø Segment 1: Consumer Electronics (CE) – This segment includes, for example, CD-DA,

DVD-Video, DVD+/-R, DVD+/-RW, DVD-RAM, MiniDisc, and BD/HD DVD. Ø Segment 2: PC/Workstation – This segment includes all non-application specific CD/DVD

storage and 3.5" MO (5.25" MO is sometimes used for archival storage in medical image processing workstations and similar applications, but the volume is very low).

Ø Segment 3: Professional (including departmental) – This segment includes 5.25" MO and UDO and Sony’s Professional Disc for DATA (both are "blue laser" technologies); 3.5" MO is sometimes used by this segment, but penetration is relatively low.

Ø Segment 4: Data Center (enterprise) – This segment also includes 5.25" MO and UDO and Sony’s Professional Disc for DATA, but with a much greater emphasis on optical disc library (ODL) solutions.

Some overlap exists. The status and roadmap tables will help clarify principal market segments in terms of type of optical storage. Consumer electronics, primarily audio-video (AV), digital image capture, and gaming applications, is, and will likely continue to be, the largest and fastest growing segment. The


advent of high-definition TV (HDTV) will make the evolving blu-ray disc (BD) and its successor optical technologies essential for both consumer and professional (for example, non-linear editing and movie/TV program production) AV applications. Other professional applications will include law, medical, and government offices. PC/workstation applications will continue to be a major market for multifunction optical storage drives that integrate total CD and DVD functionality (and later, BD) into a single unit. Optical storage data center application opportunities will continue to decline3, but will be necessary when reliable, near-line and archival storage for large databases are required (these are primarily optical disk library + WO4 optical media applications). Manufacturing of hardware and media is, and will continue to be, entirely dominated by Asian companies (Japan, Korea and Taiwan/China, in particular). North American-based companies will mainly play the essential role of product and system integrators for value-added applications.

3 Legal requirements may mandate the use of WO media for the foreseeable future; this is a small, but profitable,

niche for WO optical media, such as Plasmon’s UDO and high-quality DVD+/-R discs. 4 WO and WORM (Write-Once/Read-Mostly) are synonymous.


2 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Optical storage over the past 30 years has provided a multiplicity of storage solutions. The range spans the first analog video disc and 12" WO systems in the 1970s to today’s blu-ray disc (BD) drives and media. Table 1 summarizes the many types of optical disc storage shipping today in terms of primary technical parameters and market segments served5. Table 2 compares the key technology parameters for HD DVD, Blu-ray Disc, and UDO. An assessment of the current status of optical storage products follows. 2.1 CD/DVD The center of gravity of optical storage today is CD/DVD drives and media. CD/DVD is a mature technology that has become ubiquitous in the CE and PC/Workstation market segments. CD products were supposed to have reached the end of their product life by this time. However, sub-$500 desktop computers created an unexpected market opportunity that promises to keep CD drives in production for at least the next 3-5 years6. Moreover, CD-DA is still very popular and the vast majority of music is still distributed on these discs. Most new cars come equipped with a CD player. The same is true for software distribution on CD-ROM (more than 95% of commercial software easily fits on a CD-ROM). Hence, CD media has a long-term future, even as CD drive functions are absorbed into DVD drives. CD-RW drives were expected to displace floppy discs. This is happening, but only slowly, and mainly for laptop computers (CD-RW/DVD-ROM combo drives dominate). DVD-ROM media has not proved an attractive substitute for CD-ROM discs for software distribution. However, DVD-ROM drives, which have integral CD read capabilities and can read DVD-Video discs with appropriate software, are the de facto ROM storage peripheral for a large fraction of today’s PCs and workstations. DVD-Video players (alone and in combination with VCRs) have proved very successful CE products. More recently, shipments of recordable/rewritable DVD-Video systems (based on DVD+/-RW or DVD-RAM) have accelerated, thanks to retail prices falling below $300. DVD multi drives that combine (1) DVD-RAM and DVD-R (and all CD and DVD-ROM functions; Matsushita, Hitachi, and Toshiba are leading manufacturers) or (2) DVD+/-R and DVD+/-RW capabilities (and all CD and DVD-ROM functions; Pioneer, Samsung, Sony and Philips are leading manufacturers) are common. DVD super multi drives that combine DVD+/-RW and DVD-RAM are also available, but less common (Hitachi-LG Electronics is the sole source of this hardware). Figure 1 shows the LG Model GSA-4210B, which also supports the new DVD+/-R Dual Layer (DL) discs. DVD+/-RW drives have reached 16x speed, DVD-RAM drives 5x speed. DVD+/-R DL (dual or double layer) recordable discs became available in 2Q 2004 at 2.4x speed; DL-capable drives are required to write these discs. Dual-layer rewritable DVD is feasible, but no products have been announced. 2.2 Blue Laser Disc – Consumer Applications Blu-ray disc and HD DVD are successor technologies to DVD for video recording. They are application specific for high definition television (HDTV) playback and recording, but form the basis for a computer data storage device, as was the case for CD and DVD. HDTV requires

5 An even larger table could be constructed to represent optical storage products from the period 1972-2003 that are

no longer shipping or that failed in the market. 6 Those who follow the industry will recall that forecasts circa 1997-2000 strongly asserted that CD-ROM would be

almost completely displaced by DVD-ROM by 2003 or 2004. Although CD drive production is declining, it is still significant.


about four times the bandwidth of standard definition television (SDTV). With some fine tuning of the MPEG-2 codec, 25 GB capacity (single layer) and 36 Mbps data rate yields 135 minutes of HDTV, plus extras (this contrasts with 4.7 GB and 11 Mbps for the DVD SDTV standard). Both BD and HD DVD will provide RO, WO and RW media support and can use multilayers to double or even quadruple capacity. To achieve HDTV level capacities and data rates, a blue laser diode must be used. Additionally, an objective lens with a higher NA is required. The BD approach is to implement "near front surface" recording (0.1mm protective layer, which increases tilt and aberration tolerances) and use a NA=0.85 objective lens. HD DVD preserves the basic 2 (polycarbonate) substrate x 0.6mm design of DVD and uses a NA=0.65 objective lens; active tilt control will probably be needed. Many 100,000s of test disc have been successfully made for each proposed format; yields are already approaching 90% and costs are only marginally higher. An HD DVD standard, sponsored by Toshiba and NEC, has been proposed to the DVD Forum and is approved at Rev 1.0 for RO discs. A BD standard has not yet been submitted (the BD Group may choose to develop a standard independent of the DVD Forum). A DVD Forum subcommittee is working on reconciling the two standards. Given that HDTV is not yet pervasive and may not be until sometime in the 2006-2009 period, BD and HD DVD (or, if common sense prevails, some combination7) will enter the market slowly in 2005 and not begin shipping in large volumes until about 2008. These HDTV players and recorders will likely be able to play DVD-Video discs (backward compatibility is an important marketing consideration). Mastering and replication are not expected to present any significant manufacturing problems. Matsushita (Osaka, Japan) announced the DMR-E700B BD recorder for consumer recording of HDTV signals on July 01, 2004. The hardware is priced at about $2,800, and it supports basic CD/DVD functionality. This is the world’s first blue laser, two-layer optical storage product line. Both 25 GB (LM-BRM25) and 50 GB (LM-BRM50) discs are available for $35 and $70, respectively. Maximum recording time is 4.5 hours of HDTV at a 25 Mbps bit rate. Matsushita plans to manufacture about 2,000 drives per month (the company also will make the RW phase change media). The product line will only be available in Japan initially. This technology was first demonstrated at ISOM (international Symposium on Optical Storage) 2001. At that time Matsushita made clear that 2-layer, 2-sided discs with 100 GB cartridge capacity were also feasible. See Table 2 for details. The product will initially only be sold in Japan. A generic data storage version is likely in the near future. 2.3 Blue Laser Disc – Computer Applications Ultra Density Optical (UDO) was originally conceived by Sony as means of extending the product life of 5.25" ISO MO. Over time, the disc recording layer was changed from MO to phase change and Sony transferred the technology to Plasmon (Cambridge, England). After three years of development and an estimated $25 million total investment, Plasmon began initial shipments of UDO drives and discs in 4Q 2003. UDO is blue laser optical storage (but not a blu-ray derivative). Cartridge capacity is 30 GB (15 GB per surface) and data rate is 8 MBps (max). Figure 2 shows examples of an internal drive and 130mm WO and RW phase change disc cartridges. The list price for discs is $60 for WO and $75 for RW; drive list price is $3,000. The 7 The genesis of today’s DVD was a combination of MultiMedia CD (MMCD; Sony and Philips) and Super Density CD

(SDCD; Toshiba) in 4Q 1995. Sony contributed what would later become DVD-9. Overall, Toshiba’s concepts dominate the DVD standard.


UDO cartridge design complies with that for ISO 5.25" MO. Hence, ODL applications are fully supported from first shipments (Plasmon is the world’s leading ODL manufacturer; its G-Series will be used with UDO drives to provide up to 2.4 TB of near-line storage). UDO is a pure computer storage peripheral. Its primary applications will include archiving, near-line storage, document management, and image and data collection. Primary markets will include finance, government, health care, and military. IBM, HP and Dell are acknowledged UDO supporters. See Table 2 for details. Sony has developed a professional blue laser product line called Professional Disc for DATA (PDD) for HDTV studio and related AV applications. Drives (BW-F101), WO (PDDWO23) and RW (PDDRW23) media , third party software, and 19" rack-mountable ODLs (with near-line capacities over 1 TB) are available. Details are given in Table 2. Figure 3 shows the basic PDD internal and external drive and 23 GB disc cartridge family. Although pitched to the professional AV market, PDD is a generic computer storage peripheral, suitable for most IT storage applications. Sony makes clear that PDD is not BD, which by definition is a consumer product concept. The more robust design, higher data rates (9 MBps write and 11 MBps read), lack of media interchange, sophisticated software support, and high prices (approximately, $2,800 and $50 for drive and disc, respectively) confirm this. The product line will initially only be available in Japan. 2.4 Small Form Factor Disc (SFFD) Optical Storage In addition to MD and the Sanyo SFFD optical storage products, DataPlay (Boulder, CO) developed a "micro-optical engine" drive mechanism and 32mm diameter replicated and WO phase change discs (originally, provided by Ritek and Imation). DataPlay’s Digital Media product line was designed to be a robust CE product for portable audio, still image storage, and related digital content applications. Capacity is 250 MB and 373 MB (second generation) per side and 7.8 Mbps data rate; a 650 nm red laser is used. OEM drive cost was about $100 and retail media cost for a 500 MB cartridge is $10. Financial problems caused the company to shut down, but it re-opened in March 2003. Most of its business and manufacturing are done in China. Philips also announced development of a SFFD optical storage device in June 2002. Using a blue laser and 30mm diameter phase change disc, the potential for 1 GB capacity (RO and WO modes) was demonstrated. However, the company dropped the project in November 2003 with the explanation that the business units chose not to support it. LG Electronics (Seoul, Korea) is also known to be developing RO/WO SFFD optical storage products, but no announcement has been made. Finally, Sony announced a UMD (Universal Media Disc) in late June 2004. Designed for Sony’s recently announced PlayStation Portable (PSP), the new optical storage medium uses a 60mm diameter disc and has a RO capacity of 1.8 GB. A 660nm red laser diode is used for reading. The shell of the disc cartridge looks similar to that used for Sony’s PDD media, but is much smaller and has a relatively large UMD logo. First shipments are not scheduled until March 2005. Although Sony has targeted this product for gaming applications, a blue laser version of UMD could easily support a 120mm DVD-Video capacity of 4.7 GB; this would provide an elegant new CE video product. 2.5 Magneto-Optical For more than 25 years, magneto-optical (MO) discs were considered the dominant rewritable medium. MO optical storage is a form of thermally assisted perpendicular magnetic recording. The discs are robust, read and rewrite cycles are essentially infinite, and most vendors promise


an archival life of 25-50 years. When archiving data was really important, MO was the storage medium of choice8. The major competitors to MO media were historically phase change (limited, but commercially viable, read and rewrite cycles – outside a testing lab, few examples of media failure can be cited) and reversible dye polymers (very inexpensive, but read and rewrite cycles were generally inadequate). By the mid 1990s, reversible dye polymers were proven unsuitable and phase change had improved so significantly that it was chosen for CD-RW (cost, simplicity of drive design, and replicated media compatibility were important selection criteria) and, later, all of today’s rewritable DVD and next-generation Blu-ray and HD DVD optical storage. In the end, it was cost and complexity, not performance, that limited MO to computer storage applications9. MO media and drives were simply too expensive for most consumer electronic applications (Sony's MiniDisc being an important exception). Even for professional and enterprise applications, MO was only marginally affordable; however, it was often the only choice for robust, high-reliability near-line storage. 3.5"/86mm and 5.25"/130mm form factor drives and ISO standardized MO discs were brought to market in the late 1980s. Today’s maximum shipping capacities are 2.3 GB (initially, 128 MB) and 9.1 GB (initially, 650 MB), respectively. Figure 4 shows an example of the current generation 3.5" MO drive and 2.3 GB disc10 cartridge. No roadmap for ISO-standard 3.5" MO is in the public domain beyond 2.3 GB capacity. Fujitsu (Tokyo, Japan) controls this technology and its markets (mainly Japan and other parts of Asia). However, one or two future generations of backward compatible products appear feasible. The roadmap for 5.25" ISO-standard MO ends at 9.1 GB. Plasmon’s UDO (which uses phase change media) is now the future for 130mm optical storage, and it has its own roadmap. Finally, 5.25 MO drive production is limited and probably will be phased out sometime in 2005 or 2006, when UDO and PDD products become both generally available in volume and proven reliable. TeraStor (San Jose, CA; circa 1997-1999) attempted commercial development of a 5.25" HH optical drive based on near-field recording (NFR) principles and 130mm MO discs with 15-20 GB per surface capacity (developed by Imation). After investing about $100 million and growing to 125 employees, the company admitted failure and went out of business. The main unsolvable problem was contamination of the solid immersion lens (SIL) after only a small number of writes (replicated optical discs greatly minimize this problem). At about the same time, Quinta (Mountain View, CA) attempted to develop a 5.25"/130mm MO disc storage system the company called "thermally assisted Winchester" (know today as HAMR). The Quinta concept essential built a magnetic disk drive with a spindle of 130mm MO discs, each having a slider per surface. The sliders were connected via optical fibers to a sidecar optical switch and a laser diode and related optics. Essentially, this was perpendicular writing and reading with a magnetic head and localized laser spot heating. Beyond detailed drawings and

8 A WORM versions of MO, firmware implemented as in the case of WORM tape, was available for 5.2 GB MO discs,

but not for the later 9.1 GB disc. 9 MO recording layers for blue laser optical storage tend to have lower read signals and to be noisier. 10 The 86mm MO optical discs are single sided and single layer. This does not appear likely to change. Although it is

technically feasible to go double sided, double layer is far more challenging.


a novel fiber optical switch, the company demonstrated little, and was acquired by Seagate Technologies. Until October 2001, Maxoptix (San Jose, CA) pursued development of its Optical Super Density (OSD) 5.25" optical drive and 130mm MO disc. The project goal was 20 GB/surface (40 GB per cartridge) capacity and 30 MBps data rate. The intended product would have been a direct competitor to Plasmon’s UDO. The project was terminated because MO media capable of supporting more than 13 GB per surface could not be obtained. Maxoptix, a 5.25" MO pioneer, exited the mainstream optical storage business altogether soon thereafter (the company is now focused on magnetic tape automation solutions through its acquisition of Breece Hill Systems). MiniDisc (MD) is a SFFD (small form factor disc) consumer electronics, MO-disc product that is shipping and appears to have a long-term future. Sony introduced the MiniDisc (approximately 2.5" form factor/64.8mm diameter disc) for audio playback and recording and data storage (130 MB capacity) in 1992. In many ways, MiniDisc is the MO version of CD-DA, except for Sony’s proprietary ATRAC audio compression technology. Since its introduction, 80 million drives and 1.1 billion discs have shipped (mainly in Japan and other parts of Asia). In 4Q 2003, Sony announced Hi-MD, which increased capacity to 1 GB (the disc specification is significantly different from the original MD and a different MO recording method is used, but backward read compatibility is maintained). Finally, Sanyo Electric (Tokyo, Japan) shipped the iD (intelligent image +Disk) MO system in December 2000. Developed in partnership with Olympus and Hitachi Maxell, the iD system used a 50mm diameter MO disc, MSR (Magnetically-induced Supper Resolution) write/read, and a 650nm red laser diode to achieve 730 MB capacity (single sided), a 4.6 Gb/in2 storage density, and a data rate of 15.6 Mbps. Cartridge media cost $32. The optical disc drive was designed to fit a 1.5 megapixel digital camera (iD Photo), which was both expensive (over $1,500) and less than competitive in terms of image quality. The drive alone was estimated to have added over $300 to the camera cost. A stand-alone MO storage subsystem was also announced. The product line was withdrawn less than two years later. 2.6 Large-format Optical Disc Storage The large-format optical disc segment (130mm-356mm disc diameter, MO and write-once ablative and phase change storage layers), as a practical matter, no longer exists. Sony manufactures 5.25" MO drives only on a limited basis, and may stop production completely in the near future (disc cartridges will remain available). Plasmon, the last manufacturer of a 12" drive/300mm WORM disc (30 GB capacity; phase change media) product line, has or will soon end production of the drives (except for refurbishing; media and service will be available for the foreseeable future). At one time, more than 10 companies worldwide supplied large-format optical disc storage. Kodak developed a 14" drive/356mm WORM disc product line (10.8 and 25 GB capacities), but exited the market in 1Q 1999. ATG Gigadisc, Hitachi, Matsushita, Optimem, Sony, and Toshiba once provided 12" drive/300mm disc (ablative WORM media) products. Sony also shipped a limited number of 8" drive/200mm disc (ablative WORM) solutions. Nikon developed and shipped in the mid 1990s a 12" drive/300mm disc (rewritable MO). By the late 1990s all of these products were out of production. The majority of these drives and discs were used in optical disc libraries. Primary applications included image and data collection (particularly in health care and energy markets), customer service support, and the archiving of


large government and corporate databases. The market for these products in terms of units was always small; hence, unit prices were too high for general and consumer use. Price/performance advances of competing technologies (magnetic tape and disc arrays) minimized the need for large-format disc optical storage, except where WORM media is mandated by law or regulation. Plasmon’s UDO product line, which provides 30 GB of either WO or RW capacity, is an excellent replacement for all of the above products, and is significantly less expensive.


Table 1: Shipping Products Examples of Today's Optical Disc Storage Products

Product Name Form Factor

Disc Type/ Diameter (mm)

Capacity (GB)

Write/Read Options

In Production

Market Segments

CD-DA 5.25" HH replicated/ 120mm 0.65-0.80 RO Yes 1

CD-ROM 5.25" HH replicated/ 120/80mm 0.65-0.80 RO Yes 2,3,4

VCD/SuperVCD 5.25" HH replicated/ 120mm 0.65-0.80 RO Yes 1

CD-R/CD-RW 5.25" HH dye layer or phase

change/ 120/80mm

0.65-0.80 RO/WO/RW Yes 1,2,3

DVD-ROM 5.25" HH replicated/ 120/80mm 4.7-17 RO Yes 2,3,4

DVD Combo (CD-RW + DVD-

ROM) 5.25" HH slim-line

dye layer & replicated/

120mm 0.65-0.80

4.7-17 WO/RO Yes 2

DVD-Video 5.25" HH replicated/ 120mm 4.7-17 RO Yes 1

DVD-Audio 5.25" HH replicated/ 120mm 4.7-17 RO Yes 1

SACD (dual layer) 5.25" HH replicated/

120mm 0.65/4.7 RO Yes 1

DVD+/-R 5.25" HH dye layer/ 120/80mm 4.7-9.4 RO/WO Yes 1,2,3

DVD+/-R DL 5.25" HH dye layer/ 120mm 8.5 RO/WO Yes 1,2,3

DVD+/-RW 5.25" HH phase change/ 120mm 4.7/9.4 RO/WO/RW Yes 1,2,3

DVD-RAM 5.25" HH phase change/ 120/80mm 4.7/9.4 RO/WO/RW Yes 1,2,3

DVD Multi (DVD+/-RW 5.25" HH phase change/

120mm 4.7-17 RO/WO/RW Yes 1,2

DVD Super Multi (DVD+/-RW + DVD-

RAM) 5.25" HH phase change/

120mm 4.7-17 RO/WO/RW Yes 1,2

Prof. Disc for DATA-1 (Sony) 5.25" HH phase change/

120mm 23.3 WO/RW Yes 3

BD HD Recorder (Matsushita) 5.25" HH phase change/

120mm 25/50 RO/RW Yes 1

DataPlay SFFD replicated & phase

change/ 32mm

0.75 RO/WO Yes 1,2

MiniDisc 2.5" HH MO/64.8mm 0.13 RO/RW Yes 1,2

3.5" ISO MO 3.5" HH MO/86mm 2.3 RW Yes 2,3

5.25" ISO MO 5.25" HH MO/130mm 9.1 WO/RW Limited 2,3,4

UDO-1 5.25" HH phase change/ 130mm 30 WO/RO Yes 3,4


Table 2: First-Generation Blue Disk Optical Storage Products

Toshiba/NEC Matsushita Sony Plasmon

name HD DVD BD Recorder Prof. Disc for DATA UDO

market segments 1 1 2,3,4 2,3,4

1-layer capacity (GB) 15 (RO)/20 (RW) 25 23.3 15 (each disc side)

2-layer capacity (GB) 30 (RO)/32 (RW) 50 NA NA

media types RO/RW RO (TBD) RW WO/RW WO/RW

rewritable media type phase change phase change (10,000 cycles)

phase change (10,000 cycles)

phase change (10,000 cycles)

data rate (MBps) 8.5 8.5 9 write 11 read

2-4 write (with verification)

4-8

seek time (msec) ? ? 110 (CAV) 280 (CLV) 25

file format micro-UDF BD proprietary BD proprietary per ECMA 350 disc diameter (mm) 120 120 120 130

thickness (mm) 0.6 x 2 1.2 1.2 1.2 x 2 wavelength (nm) 405 405 405 405

NA 0.65 0.85 0.85 0.70 modulation code ETM (1,7)PP (1,7)PP (1,7)RLL

read channel PRML PRML PRML PRML track pitch (nm) 40 320 320 370/400

track density (tpi) 63,500 79,375 79,375 68,649 (max) min. mark length (nm) 204 149 160 314 recording density (bpi) 182,677 226,772 211,653 107,795 areal density (Gb/in2) 11.6 18 16.8 7.4

first shipment (2005) July 2004 November 2003 October 2003

drive price (US$) TBD 2,800 2,995 (int) 3,299 (ext) 3000

media price (US$) TBD 35 (25 GB RW) 70 (50 GB RW) 45 60 (30 GB WO)

75 (30 GB RW)

ODL No No Sony 19" rack mount Plasmon G-Series

3rd party software TBD TBD Yes Yes


Figure 1: The LG Electronics DVD Super Multi drive (Model GSA-4210B), which

incorporates DVD+/-RW and DVD-RAM, DVD+/-R (DL), DVD-ROM, CD-R/-RW, and CD-ROM functionality; price on the Internet is less than $100 (source: Hitachi LG).

Figure 2: The Plasmon UDO 5.25" HH internal drive and 30 GB WO and RW phase change

disc cartridge family (source: Plasmon Plc.).


Figure 3: The Sony Professional Disc for DATA (PDD) internal and external drive models and

23 GB disc cartridge (source: Sony Corp.).

Figure 4: The Fujitsu GIGAMO 3.5" drive and 2.3 GB ISO MO disc cartridge (source: Fujitsu Ltd.).


3 MARKET PROFILE Like its product and technology mix, optical storage markets and marketing data are complex. To simplify the analysis, market segments 1 and 2 (CE and PC/workstation) and market segments 3 and 4 (professional and enterprise) are logically grouped together. As the following analysis shows, the total worldwide ex-factory value of the optical storage market for the last complete year (2003) is roughly $24.4 billion11. These revenues were generated primarily by the sales of 174.2 million drives and 17.2 billion discs (of all types). A summary of units and revenues is given in Table 3. To aid the understanding of how optical storage revenues are generated, Tables 4 and 5 were created using published market data. Table 4 is a summary of worldwide shipments and forecasts for mainstream optical disc drives shipping in 2003 and 2004. Table 5 provides an overview of worldwide shipments and forecasts, respectively, for WO and RW optical media for 2003 and 2004. Figure 5 (provided by Iomega Corp. at CES 2002) shows shipments and forecasts in millions of units for primary CD/DVD drive types over the period 2001-2007. A more recent graphic published in Medialine (May/June 2004) illustrates in Figure 6 the shifting percent market shares of CD, DVD, and Blue Laser drives over the period 2003-2010. Finally, Figure 7 summarizes shipments and forecasts for replicated (RO) media of all types; these data compliment the WO/RW media data of Table 5. The CE and PC/workstation market segments for 2003 can be broken down into RO and WO/RW components. At the end of 2003, the worldwide installed base of CD/DVD drives was about 500 million units. The RO component (CD-DA/CD-ROM, VCD/SuperVCD, and DVD-ROM/-Video) estimate is comprised of 169 million drives and 17 billion replicated discs, with ex-factory (generally, FOB somewhere in Asia; also called OEM pricing) revenues of $4.2 billion and $8.5 billion, respectively (total of $12.7 billion12). The WO/RW component (DVD+/-R/RW, DVD-RAM) estimate is comprised of 19.1 million drives and 469 million blank discs, with ex-factory revenues of $7.4 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively (total of $10 billion13). Total ex-factory revenues for market segments 1 and 2 (all CD/DVD products) are thus $22.7 billion. This represents about 92.9% of total optical storage revenues. In 2003, 4.25 billion CD-DA and 3.26 billion DVD-Video "titles" were manufactured. This generated estimated retail revenues of $25 billion and $12 billion, respectively14. To this can be added an additional $4.3 billion for DVD-Video disc rentals15. A market of this size helps explain the fierce competition for CE optical media IP and the subsequent licensing fees and royalties they yield.

11 Another roughly $60 million of ex-factory revenues is generated by the sale of roughly 15,000 ODLs of all types. 12 Calculated by the ADVENT Group using various public domain sources (see Tables 2 and 3 for primary sources). 13 Source: Santa Clara Consulting Group published in EMedia, May 2004, p.9. 14 No precise relationship exists between discs manufactured and discs sold at retail. A ratio in the range of 2:1 to 4:1

is often applicable. The $24.8 billion revenue number does not contain any retail components. 15 Source: Medialine, January 2004, p.9.


Interestingly, even though unit sales are increasing in these market segments, ex-factory pricing tends to decrease almost equally fast. This tends to keep worldwide revenues growing relatively slowly, as older products exit the market and newer ones take their place, but are unable to prevent fairly rapid price erosion. Optical storage revenues tend to increase in "quantum" amounts, much like capacity. MD (MiniDisc) is primarily a CE portable audio product, although pure data storage versions exist. For various reasons MD will be treated separately. MD is very popular in Japan (75% market share) for reasons of size, sound quality (the ATRAC compression method is superior to MP3), and rewritable (MO) media (replicated audio discs are also available). Both OEM and CE after market revenues are generated. As a captive technology, price erosion is much slower than in the case of CD/DVD. In 2003, about 3.7 million drives and 218 million media were shipped. Assuming "equivalent" average ex-factory prices of $80 for drives and $4 for media, the approximate revenues are $0.296 billion for drives and $0.872 for media, or total ex-factory revenues of $1.17 billion . This represents about 4.8% of total optical storage revenues. The 3.5" ISO MO product line will also be treated separately. According to IDC, the installed base of 3.5" MO drives is about 11.5 million units, the installed base of MO disc cartridges is about 120 million units, and annual sales were about 1.5 million drive units and 19.4 million media units (all data through 2003). More than 75% of the market is in Asia (mainly, Japan); the North American market is less than 10%. Based on approximate average OEM selling prices ($180 for drives and $12 for media), the 2003 ex-factory revenues were about $270 million and $234 million, respectively. Total ex-factory sales were thus roughly $514 million. This represents about 2.1% of total optical storage revenues. Large-format optical disc storage (market segments 3 and 4) is defined for 2003 (and subsequent years) only by 5.25" form factor, 130mm diameter disc drives and media. This definition includes ISO MO (5.2 GB and 9.1 GB) and UDO. Also included in the definition are ODLs, software, repair/maintenance, consulting and integration services, and other related products. From a peak of 250,000 drives in 1995, 5.25" MO drive sales have declined to 75,000 units in 2002 (according to IDC), about 20,000 in 2003 (estimate), and fewer than 10,000 in 2004 (forecast). It is produced only by Sony, and then on a limited basis for a limited time. The basic technology can support much higher capacities, but drive and media manufacturing complexity increases and yields decrease, make an already relatively expensive product line even more expensive. Phase change media is the better choice, as exemplified by UDO. Hence, 5.25" ISO MO drives have clearly reached the end of their product life (media will to be available for the foreseeable future). Factoring in the 1.7 million 5.25" ISO MO media sold in 2003 (according to Japan Recording Media Industries Association), 5.25" MO generated about $47 million in revenues. This revenue stream is expected to decline, and will ultimately represent only media sales. 12" WORM drive revenues are assumed negligible. Only about 300 12" WORM drives were sold in 2002 (total market value of the entire product line was about $20 million). 100, or fewer, drives were sold in 2003. However, media, service, and consulting revenues were sufficient to keep the product line alive through 2003 and into 2004. Clearly, the first shipments of UDO drives in late 2003 made the high-priced 12" WORM product line ($18,500 drives and $600


media) obsolete and redundant. Only Plasmon knows for sure what its 12" WORM sales were in 2003. An approximation is was derived as follows: 150 drives, 150x12 (new drive burn rate)=1,800 media, and 2000 (active installed base)x5 (prior year drives burn rate)=10,000 media; thus, 150 drives and 11,800 media. Using an equivalent ex-factory price (the ratio of Plasmon's direct to OEM sales is unknown) of $6,000 for drives and $400 for media, the total revenues in 2003 are about $0.9 million and $4.7 million respectively; the total is $5.6 million. This represents only about 0.023% of ex-factory revenues. The market for UDO products is, of course, difficult to predict at this time. Revenue generation for 2003 is assumed negligible. The keys to success in the future will be reliability, rational capacity growth, and support; only time will establish if these criteria have been satisfied. Plasmon will no doubt focus on it core markets, particularly those requiring WO media and ODL solutions. Competitive storage technologies (both magnetic and optical) may offer either better price or better performance, but UDO will generally offer a better compromise for professional and enterprise applications. Moreover, Dell and other PC manufacturers have also expressed an interest in integrating UDO drives into their high-end PCs and workstations. Based on these factors, an IDC worldwide forecast for 2007 may prove accurate; it predicts: Ø Worldwide UDO drive sales of 75,000 units and revenues of $90 million Ø An installed base of 200,000 UDO drives Ø $90 million in ODL sales, and Ø $75 million in UDO media sales. For 2003, the best end user revenue estimates for the total professional and data center market segments (market segments 3 and 4) are from a low range of $125-200 million to a high range of $250-400 million. Even the most optimistic revenue number ($400 million) represents only a 1.64% share of total ex-factory optical storage revenues. In these market segments, however, unit drive sales may be small, but the value add is generally significant. The advent of shipping UDO and other blue laser products will likely drive significant revenue growth for many years to come, thereby greatly increasing the revenue share of market segments 3 and 4. For companies that dominate these segments, the business can be very profitable.


Figure 5: Actual and forecasted CD and DVD hardware unit shipments from 2001 to 2007

(source: Iomega Corp.; Roy, UT).

Figure 6: Percent shipments of CD, DVD, and Blue Laser hardware units in the period 2003-

2010 (source: Strategic Marketing Decisions in Mediaware, May/June 2004, p.36).


Figure 7: CD/DVD replication units (RO discs) for the period 2002-2004 (source: IRMA website).


Table 3: Optical Storage Shipments and Ex-Factory Revenues16

Product Drives (millions of units)

Discs (millions of units)

Total Revenues (US$ millions)

All CD/DVD 169 (97%)

17,000 (98.6%)

22,700 (92.9%)

MiniDisc 3.7 (2.1%)

218 (1.3%)

1,170 (4.8%)

3.5" ISO MO 1.5 (0.86%)

19.4 (0.1%)

514 (2.1%)

5.25" ISO MO 0.02 (<< 1%)

1.7 (<< 1%)

47 (<< 1%)

12" WORM (150 units) (<< 1%)

(13,800 units) (<< 1%)

6.4 (<< 1%)

Totals 174.2 (100%)

17,239.1 (100%)

24,435.8 (100%)

16 Data analyzed and table compiled by The ADVENT Group, using data from various sources, including CEA,

Gartner, IDC, Instat/MDR, IRMA, JEI, Medialine, MMIS, and Santa Clara Consulting Group). Quantities are in millions of units, except as noted for low volume products.


Table 4: Optical Drive Shipments and Forecasts (millions of units)17

Type 2003 Shipments

2004 Forecasts

Market Trend

Comments

CD-ROM 58 45 Declining demand

Lowest cost component for entry-level PCs. Most sub-$500 come standard with a CD-ROM drive that can be profitably upgraded to a CD-R/CD-RW or CD-RW/DVD combo drive.

CD-R/CD-RW 67 71 Stable demand

Next lowest cost component for entry-level PCs. Most $500-1,000 come standard with a CD-R/CD-RW drive that can be profitably upgraded to a CD-RW/DVD combo or DVD recordable drive.

VCD/SuperVCD 68 58 Declining demand

VCD/SuperVCD is mainly an Asian mainland product. It plays MPEG-1 quality video (often pirated DVD movies), and is very inexpensive. DVD players are slowly displacing.

DVD-ROM 43 46 Declining demand

A low-cost CD-ROM alternative for entry-level PCs. Most $500-750 come standard with a DVD-ROM drive that can be profitably upgraded to a CD-RW/DVD combo or DVD recordable drive.

DVD-Video Players (RO) 78 92 Increasing

demand

A very popular CE product and the main user of DVD-Video discs. Prices in the US have fallen to less than $50 for entry-level devices. Third world demand will keep this product in demand for at least the next 5 years.

DVD-Video Recorders (WO/RW)

4.1 11.5 Rapidly

increasing demand

The next wave CE product. With prices in the US falling below $300 for entry level products, the era of the VCR may end sooner than thought. BD and HD DVD HDTV recorders are displacing products, but not for at least 3 years.

Recordable DVD (WO/RW) 15 28

Rapidly increasing demand

Mainly, a computer storage product for PCs and workstations. May become the primary optical drive, if OEM prices fall below $80. Despite the blue laser hype, this product category has a 3-5 year strong sales growth potential.

17 Data analyzed and table compiled by The ADVENT Group, using data from various sources, including CEA,

Gartner, IDC, Instat/MDR, IRMA, JEI, Medialine, MMIS, and Santa Clara Consulting Group). Quantities are in millions of units, except as noted for very low-volume products.


Blue Laser (120mm) phase

change - all types

250-500 units 5,000 units Rapidly

increasing demand

This group includes PDD, HD DVD, and all other blue-laser optical storage products. Shipments will probably ramp up in late 2005 or early 2006.

MD/Hi-MD 3.7 4.2 Moderate demand

The introduction of Hi-MD may increase sales significantly. In Japan, MD Audio is the preferred portable music player. High-MD has the potential to be the floppy replacement that CD-RW never was, but current pricing levels are too high.

3.5" (86mm) ISO MO 1.5 1.7 Moderate

demand

A stable, robust HHD-like product with a near capacity potential of 4-6 GB. A new product announcement and better US marketing is needed to sustain this product line.

5.25" (130mm) ISO MO

15-20,000 units

8-10,000 units

Rapidly decreasing

demand

A stable, robust HHD-like product that has reached the end of its technology life. It will probably be entirely displaced by UDO in less than 3 years.

5.25" (130mm) UDO phase

change 100-250 units 5-10,000 units

Rapidly increasing demand

Following a delayed ramp up in late 2003 and early 2004, the product line is now in reasonably stable production, as of late 2Q 2004. HP and IBM are expected to be the principal OEM customers.

12" (300mm) WORM phase

change 25-100 units 10-50 units

Essentially no longer in production

A very expensive technology with a great past, but no future. It will be replaced by UDO. The media and service business components will survive for at least 3 years.


Table 5:

WO and RW Optical Media Shipments and Forecasts (millions of units)18

Type 2003 Shipments

2004 Forecasts

Market Trend

Comments

Audio CD-R 285 301 5.6% growth Anti-piracy initiatives have slowed market growth. US is the largest consumer (63%).

Audio MD 218 205 6% decrease The impact of Hi-MD not factored in. 85% of discs made in Japan. 75% of discs consumed in Japan.

Data CD-R 8,000 8,680 8.5% growth Still the most successful optical disc type. Outsells CD-RW by about a 25:1 ratio.

CD-RW 327 353 8% growth

Still not accepted as the "floppy disk replacement." Low-cost CD-R discs and portable Flash drives are seen by end users as the better solution.

Recordable DVD (WO) 379 862 127% growth

Average selling price over $2 (8-10x more expensive than CD-R). Cost per MB will approach CD-R levels in less than 2 years. 100 million units will be used for video recording.

Recordable DVD (RW) 90 187 108% growth

85% of discs made in Japan. DVD+/-R outsells DVD+/-RW by a 4:1 ratio. 57 million units will be used for video recording.

3.5" (86mm) MO 19.4 17.3 10.8% decrease

Japan accounts for 93% of worldwide demand, which peaked in 2000. Mainly an after market product. Needs a capacity increase to at least 4.7 GB.

5.25" (130mm) MO 1.7 1.5 11.8%

decrease

Primarily an ODL product (some workstation applications, including medical image processing). AIT and DLT magnetic tape and newer optical products with much higher capacities, such as UDO and PDD, are seen as better solutions.

18 Data analyzed and table compiled by The ADVENT Group, using data from the Japan Recording Media Industries

Association (JRMIA), dated November 26, 2003.


4 OPTICAL STORAGE ROADMAPS This section has been redesigned to reflect the current and evolving status of optical storage technology, products, markets, and plans for future development. Much has changed over the past two years, especially in the areas of advanced technologies, components, and media manufacturing. The optical storage roadmap includes all optical storage products that are defined, planned, or can be extrapolated; specifically optical disc drives and holographic memory systems. CD/DVD media are firmly standardized (Sony-Philips and the DVD Forum, respectively); hence, no changes in capacity are possible. CD/DVD are therefore not included in the 2005-20015 roadmaps. Optical tape (limited development activity; no shipping products) and optical card (a highly specialized optical medium with only 4 MB capacity, which is in real danger of being supplanted by Flash memory cards) are not included. China’s EVD19 (enhanced versatile or video disc) is included; it first shipped in 1Q 2004. EVD is essentially more efficient DVD-5 and DVD-9 implementations, which still use an optical head with a 650nm laser and a 0.60 NA. Also included is DMD (Digital MultiDisc; formerly FMD = Fluorescent Multilayer Disc), which is deemed to be one of the most promising multilayer technologies. No products are shipping today, but at least one is likely to in the near future. The diversity and complexity of optical storage drives and media and the evolution of new technologies to maintain capacity growth makes a generic roadmap of minimal usefulness. Moreover, optical storage is not magnetic storage using lasers, despite the similarities. For CD and DVD optical storage, media capacity is the primary focus. Data rates are application specific for many CE applications. Access times are not a particular concern, because many CD and DVD applications write and read in serial streaming fashion. The additional manufacturing cost in a relatively low margin business has never been judged worth it. The same is true for Blu-ray and HD DVD disc. For the majority of MO and phase change drive and media optical storage, the design philosophy differs somewhat, although the emphasis is still on disc capacity. However, data rates are more important and generally not application specific (these devices can be considered generic computer storage peripherals). Access times tend to be 5-10 times faster than for CD and DVD drives. Reliability is (or must be) significantly better. The trade off is higher pricing (2.3 GB 3.5" ISO MO drive costs $250-300; 9.1 GB 5.25" ISO MO drive costs $1,500-2,000). Tables 6 and 7 show the anticipated capacity growth of the various market segments of optical storage devices during the period 2005-2015. The period 2005-2009 is defined as "next-generation;" the period 2010-2015 is defined as "future." Data rates will increase with increasing recording (bit) density. Access times will not improve significantly, unless a currently unknown "killer application" is discovered that requires the additional cost and complexity. 19 EVD is more about engineering improvements than new technology. Instead of MPEG-2, the On2 Technologies

(New York, NY) EP6 codec is used for compression/decompression. Lower bit rate permits two hours of HDTV playback, but at lower quality; this approach is also about 10x less expensive. Put in context, the Chinese market of over 1 billion people has accepted VCD versions of DVD movies for many years; EVD would be an improvement. However, many consider this a means by China to circumvent licenses fees and royalties for DVD and MPEG-2 (which today account for about 20% of ex-factory DVD pricing). Finally, China now manufactures about 80% of all DVD units, which gives it the capability to do what it chooses.


Although the tables should be self explanatory, some comments are nevertheless in order. The term "blue" indicates that a blue-violet laser diode is used for writing and reading. The technology generally may or may not be a BD derivative (at least not officially; there are licensing/royalties and compatibility issues). As a general rule, if a public domain roadmap is published, it is the controlling authority - unless valid technology and/or manufacturing issues are known that make the roadmap too aggressive or irrational to be sustained (or, in some cases, just a marketing document)20. Notice that PDD and UDO generations are designated 1-4; this is to avoid confusion when more that one generation occurs in the same time period. A separate comparison of Sony's PDD and Plasmon's UDO optical storage roadmaps is given in Table 8; this is company data without interpretation (except for 4th generation products, which are extrapolated). If roadmaps are not published in the public domain, reasonable models consistent with industry trends are used to predict future products (for example, DataPlay Blue and 3.5" MO Blue). The future generation roadmap implicitly assumes the success of quad layer optical discs. First-generation ultraviolet optical storage could be shipping before 2015. Some of the component and device technologies needed to achieve the projections of the roadmaps are discussed next. 4.1 Advanced Technologies Supporting the Roadmap Increases in optical data storage capacity over the past 22 years (measuring from 1982, the year CD-DA was introduced) have mainly depended on laser diodes with ever shorter wavelengths and the use of objective lenses with ever larger numerical apertures. The numerical aperture (NA) of a lens is a measure of resolving power (larger NAs result in smaller laser spots). The laser spot sized used for writing and reading is proportional to wavelength/NA. Storage density, in turn, is proportional to [NA/wavelength]2. Figure 8 illustrates the evolution in wavelength and spot size for CD, DVD, HD DVD, and BD. In the 1980s and early 1990s optical storage engineers made effective use of infrared laser diodes with wavelengths in the 750-790nm range (780nm being typical). With the advent of the DVD standard in 1995, laser diodes with wavelengths in the 635-690nm range were required (650nm for most DVD drives; 635nm for DVD-R authoring). The requirements for HDTV distribution and recording mandated a migration to "blue-green" laser diodes. In the end, Nichia proved that stable and reliable blue-violet laser diodes emitting at 405nm were feasible and manufacturable. These laser diodes are the basis for next-generation (2005-2009 time frame) and most future (2010-2015) optical data storage. Figure 9 shows one of several useful GaN laser diode architectures21.

20 Some company roadmaps and product announcements seem premature from a business perspective. After

investing over $100 million to develop DVD products(recordable and rewritable, in particular), which have a large and quantifiable market, why is the industry so eager to displace them with an HDTV-capable product, which is likely to have only a small market for the next 3 years, or more? No doubt, blue laser optical storage is the future; timing is the issue.

21 Although a sapphire substrate is shown in the schematic, the trend is to use GaN substrates. This improves device yields and lowers costs. Also, while 405nm is the sweet spot, blue laser diodes emitting in the range 400-450nm are feasible; efficiency, cost, and yield are the primary materials selection criteria.


Some of the most interesting means of increasing optical storage capacity in the future are summarized below. Several are proven at the R&D level or prototype level, some are still rather theoretical. Some can be used separately, others must be used in combination. Ø Multilayer – Dual layer (DL) DVD has been proven for DVD-9, DVD-18 and DVD+/-R

DL. IBM has shown that more than 20 layers are possible for read-only media. Constellation 3D (now D Data) has demonstrated 720p HDTV playback for a 6-layer fluorescent multilayer disc (now called DMD, or Digital Multilayer Disc) at MediaTech 2004. No rewritable dual-layer product is currently in production, but the feasibility for phase change media has been demonstrated (MO media is more complex, and may not yield a multilayer solution). For future optical storage media, the next challenge is quad layer (per surface). Laboratory work indicates that quad layers for RO media and possibly WO media are feasible. The issue is more complex for RW media, and remains the subject of intense research. Quad layers will undoubtedly be a challenge for replicators and media manufacturers. Multilayer designs only improve total disc capacity (storage densities are actually reduced by about 10% for dual layer recordable DVD). Access times will be longer (owing to objective lens repositioning) and data rates will decrease (owing to somewhat lower bit densities).

Ø Multilevel (ML) – When a data storage channel has sufficient margins and signal-to-noise ratio, coding marks can be used to store log2N bits, where N is the number of distinguishable reflection levels (for example, N=8 yields theoretically 3 bits/mark). Calimetrics (Alameda, CA; now a division of LSI Logic) pioneered ML optical data storage and developed the DSPs and algorithms for CD (pit depth modulation) and CD-R/-RW (area modulation); about 2.5 bits/mark was obtained. TDK (Tokyo, Japan) developed CD-R/CD-RW drives and discs of this type with a nominal 2 GB capacity disc that were compatible with Philips-Sony Red/Yellow book standard CD media. Unfortunately, DVD had entered the optical storage mainstream by then, minimizing the need for ML applied to CD products. Calimetrics has adapted its technology to DVD (34 GB per surface has been demonstrated in cooperation with Philips), but no products using this technology are shipping. The upside of ML is (1) a significant capacity and data rate gain at the cost of a sophisticated DSP chip and (2) the ability to use it with other density-enhancing methods. The downside of ML at DVD, and higher, densities is the need for a higher performance, more expensive read channel (particularly, error detection and correction coding) and higher quality media.

Ø Near Field Recording (NFR) – If the medium between the laser spot-forming objective lens and the optical medium is air, the maximum value of NA is 1. NFR optical recording and reading is enabled by the use of NAs greater than 1. Evanescent wave coupling is the mechanism. Typically, NFR can be implemented with a solid immersion lens (SIL) positioned after the objective lens and in close proximity to the optical medium (head-disc spacings similar to those of magnetic disk drives). Liquid immersion lenses are currently used for immersion lithography and advanced optical disc mastering. NA=2.5 for RO media and NA=1.6 for WO/RW media can be achieved in the laboratory. This corresponds to capacity increases of about 9x and 4x, respectively. Whether this is practical for optical data storage devices with removable media is another matter. RO media should work; WO and RW media will be more challenging.

Ø Magneto-Optical (MO) – Although fading in the market place, MO technology has several means for achieving very high storage densities. The best known are MSR (Magnetically induced Super Resolution; used for current 3.5" MO drives), MAMMOS (Magnetically


AMplifying MO System), SuperRENS (Super Resolution Near-field System), and DWDD (Domain Wall Displacement Detection; used for Hi-MD). From the theoretical and laboratory perspective, all are fascinating optical storage technologies. However, as a practical matter, implementation of drive and media are more complex and expensive than those based on phase change media. Given the emphasis on perpendicular recording for next-generation magnetic disc drives and the expected new technology development, it may too soon to write MO's obituary.

Ø 3D Holographic – Page-oriented optical data storage that "stacks" multiple holograms in a common recording medium volume has been under development for over 40 years. Component and storage media expense and availability have long been the bane of this technology. Over the past several years, however, InPhase Technology (Boulder, CO) and Optware (Tokyo, Japan) have developed 130mm-disc format holographic data storage (HDS) systems that are set to ship initially in 2005 (both companies are concentrating on the professional A/V market – for example, nonlinear editing and archiving). Figures 9 and 10 show the companies’ prototype drives and media. InPhase Technologies plans to begin shipments of its Tapestry HDS-200R drive and HDS 3000 disc family to integrators in the second half of 2005; volume shipments are planned for mid 2006. Disc capacity will be 200 GB and the data rate will be 160 Mbps. A blue-violet laser is used for write/read. The drive has an approximate 5.25" full height form factor (the drive has lengths of 11 inches and 17 inches, the former being used for optical disc library applications). The primary sales channel will be OEM. Hardware pricing will be in the $7,000-10,000 range; disc cartridge prices will be in the $50 range. Optware plans first shipments sometime in 3Q 2005. The Optware system will have a 19-inch rack mount (RM) form factor. Disc capacity will be 200 GB and data rate will be 100 Mbps. A green laser will be used for write/read and a red laser for servoing and address read. Future systems will use blue-violet lasers for write/read. Hardware pricing will be in the $18,000-30,000 range. Both companies are aiming to achieve more than 1 TB cartridge capacity. Pictures of prototype products are shown in Figures 10 and 11. Optware makes media testers and InPhase supplies HDS media; the companies work cooperatively in these areas. Finally, Aprilis, Hitachi, IBM, Mitsubishi, Pioneer, Sanyo, Sony, and more than 10 other companies worldwide are also doing holographic memory R&D; no product announcements at his date.

Ø Ultraviolet (UV) Laser Diodes – If optical data storage is to continue increasing capacity by means of laser diodes with wavelengths shorter than 405nm, ultraviolet devices must be developed. Nichia has shown the way with initial shipments of a 1 mW laser diode emitting at 375nm. No one knows at this time knows if laser diodes with even shorter UV wavelengths are feasible (very low efficiency LEDs with operating wavelengths in the 275-280nm range have been recently demonstrated). Another option is to frequency double 650nm or 405nm laser diode output to achieve a 325nm or 202.5nm wavelength (size and cost are the pacing factors). Doubling capacity (all other design parameters unchanged) requires a wavelength decrease to 286nm from 405nm. Even if this were achievable, optical engineers are well aware of the materials challenges. Optics and recording media are particularly difficult. Thus, it should be no surprise that means are being sought to extend the technology life of 405nm wavelength optical storage.

Ø Mastering and Replication Systems (MARS) – For the largest optical data storage market segment (Consumer Electronics), MARS is the pacing factor. For recordable and rewritable media manufacturing, mastering and substrate molding determine manufacturing feasibility. Manufacturers of MARS have made significant progress over the past 3 years,


and are now positioned to supply equipment for mastering, replicating, and testing Blu-ray and other next-generation optical media. All processes are now fully servoed and temperature controlled. A new mastering method for BD, called phase transition mastering (PTM), has been developed that uses a silicon (Si) wafer for the substrate and yields up to 10 stampers. Quality, cost, and durability are said to be comparable to or better than conventional masters. Examples of stampers capable of 35-50 GB per surface were shown at MediaTech 2004 (the industry trade show) that were cut using 257nm wavelength laser light (obtained by frequency doubling the 514nm output of an Argon-ion laser). Laboratory research has demonstrated the feasibility of replicating read-only media up to 200 GB per surface and manufacturing recordable/rewritable media up to 100 GB per surface. Real challenges to disc replication and manufacturing come with quad layer designs, especially for WO and RW media. Future mastering system will use UV laser light with even shorter wavelengths (for example, a frequency doubled 405nm laser diode to achieve 202.5nm) and (localized) liquid immersion NFR recording.

Ø Throughput Enhancements – Optical disc drive access times are slow compared to magnetic disk drives. For example, access times for CD and DVD drives is typically in the 100-200 ms range (a consequence of the CLV constant areal density method and coarse/fine tracking). Blu-ray and other advanced optical storage technologies won’t improve this much. The reason is simple to understand: a significant majority of writes or reads to a CD or DVD disc involve large files, which include images, databases, software and digital audio or video. In fact, CD and DVD drives are optimized for sequential serial write and read typical of consumer electronics and software distribution applications. Access time is generally not an important factor. Data rates for CD, DVD, and Blu-ray or HD DVD are based on specific consumer electronics application requirements (music, SDTV, and HDTV). The product introductory data rates are 1.2, 11, and 36 Mbps, respectively. Since bit density is set by standards, higher data rates can only be obtained by spinning the disc faster (for example, 52x CD and 16x DVD) or by parallel write/read (multiple heads per surface). Rotation speed is limited to about 10,000 rpm. Parallel read was implemented by Kenwood Technologies (San Jose, CA) based on the inventions of Zen Technologies (Cupertino, CA), and achieved the equivalent of 72x speed for a CD drive. Unfortunately, the product was unreliable and many were recalled. No optical disc drive products currently ship with multiple heads per surface; none appear to be planned. MO and holographic storage systems have the potential for faster access times, but typical applications (local backup, archiving, or near-line storage) don’t require it, especially if optical disc libraries are used. Data transfer rates are high enough for these same types of applications. In summary, the majority of development funds for both CE and computer optical storage will likely be focused on capacity growth, not throughput.

Ø Variable Focus Lens (VFL) – Both practical multilayer and NFR optical data storage systems can be better enabled by the use of electronically variable focus lenses. Positioning speed and resolution and servoing accuracy could be greatly improved compared to an electromechanical means of positioning. Philips (Eindhoven, The Netherlands) has recently announced the development of the FluidFocus system, primarily intended for digital camera and other consumer electronics (and, possibly, lithographic) applications. However, the implementation of FluidFocus technology appears readily scalable to optical write/read head dimensions. Figure 12 illustrates the technology and a digital camera lens prototype. Fuji Photo Film is also developing a family of VFLs for camera applications. Varioptic (Lyon, France) has IP in this area, but no known products for optical storage (however, the company


has warned Philips it plans to enforce its patents). Although not as versatile, Konica (Tokyo, Japan) has developed a electro-mechanically actuated VFL designed for Blu-ray disc drive optical heads. Regardless of the type of future optical storage technology, variable focus lens (and dynamic aberration correction) will likely be required to write and read ML optical discs.

Ø Negative Refraction – The vast majority of optical materials are right handed (electromagnetically speaking) and have a positive refractive index. Lenses made from these materials (for example, glass or plastic) consequently act in a classical manner (for example, they image). Over the past 36 years, several left hand materials that have a negative refractive index have been discovered. An objective lens made of a material of this type would capture evanescent near-field optical (Fourier) components, resulting in optical write/read spots that are smaller than the diffraction limit. Although controversial and not yet proven beyond basic laboratory experiments, negative refraction lenses may someday provide a more practical alternative to NFR for super resolution.

Ø Photonic Sieve – Spot formation for extreme UV or X-ray wavelengths is nearly impossible with classical lenses. Mirror systems are better, but have their own limitations. Neither are suitable for future optical disc drives or disc mastering systems. The photonic sieve may be a practical solution. It outputs a spot with a slim profile and minimized side lobes (that is, a well-focused spot without the usual characteristic of the classical Airy disc). The advantage of the photonic sieve is shown in Figure 13a and b. Essentially, a super resolved spot is formed by an optical mask with thousands of small apertures, randomly arranged to equalize the phases of the many optical paths so that maximum positive interference occurs at a central point and is nearly suppressed elsewhere. The spot size is smaller than the smallest aperture. One example is a 0.1mm diameter mask with about 5,000 30nm apertures for use with 6nm wavelength X-ray lasers.

4.2 Key Component Attributes The equipment roadmaps are supported by the inclusion of critical component/subsystem roadmaps dealing with the elements of optical storage equipment unique to the industry. The component/subsystem roadmaps included in the roadmap section are: (1) optical heads, (2) electronics, (3) optical media, and (4) lasers. Key attributes of these component/subsystems are shown in Table 9. The achievement of the performance attributes, as forecast in the product roadmaps, is dependent on meeting the performance objectives at the component/subsystem level. Ø Optical Heads The optical head subsystem typically consists of a semiconductor laser, laser beam shaping optics, focusing optics, actuators for maintaining the focused beam on the recorded track in both the focus and tracking directions, and spot position detection means (photodetector array). These operate in conjunction with a servo system to maintain both focus and tracking of the optical spot within acceptable error limits. Polarization detection is required for reading MO discs. DVD drives require more complicated heads because they must read both DVD and CD. The difference in optical path (product of index of polycarbonate times 0.6 mm or 1.2 mm thickness, respectively) requires slightly different lenses, the addition of a grating component, or a single variable lens. In addition, some CD-R discs cannot be read with a red laser with a wavelength of 650 nm. Thus, most DVD drives have two lasers and objective lenses. The optical head’s parameters for write or read are determined and set during initialization for both CD and DVD


discs. Blue laser optical heads will be even more complex, but designs already exist for writing and reading CD, DVD, and BD in a single "super-multi" optical drive. Ø Electronics The electronics components/subsystems consist of the servo control chips, laser drivers, the write/read channel (primarily, data encode and decode, error detection and correction algorithms, and signal processing), and, the I/O interface (EIDE is the most common implementation, but SCSI-2 is also used for MO and UDO drives). All of these electronic components or chip sets are mounted on a printed circuit main board, generally called a "controller," which is mounted on the optical drive OMA. Ø Optical Media Optical media generally means a bare optical disc (for tray loading or center clamping drives) or an optical disc enclosed in a plastic shell, called a cartridge. The disc itself consists of a transparent optical quality substrate with either a spatial pattern of optically discernible marks in the case of RO (replicated) discs or a recording layer that is markable with a focused laser spot in the case of WO/RW discs. These discs are 1.2mm thick. In some designs, such as DVD and HD DVD, two plastic 0.6mm substrates are laminated back to back to form a 1.2mm thick two-sided media unit. Some two-sided discs are 2.4mm thick; for example, 5.25-inch ISO MO and phase change media. BD uses a 1.19mm thick substrate and a 0.1mm cover layer (near-front surface write/read); the substrate, uniquely, is not part of the optical path. Ø Lasers The laser subsystem consists typically of a semiconductor laser diode (LD), driver electronics, thermal control feedback loop, and associated packaging. Primary LD wavelengths are 780nm (CD), 650nm (DVD), and 405nm (BD). These diodes are the CW (continuous wave) type operated typically at 20-30% duty cycle. CW powers range from 1-2 mW (read-only applications) to over 100 mW (WO and RW discs require 8-12 mW CW power at the disc to write; also, higher X-speed ratings require proportionally higher LD power). LDs are wafer scale manufactured, diced, and packaged in various type of containers. Statistical quality control is used to avoid testing each device. The next challenge for LDs is reliable UV operation at powers exceeding 25 mW for WO and RW media. Ø Copy Protection and Compression Although not a component or subsystem of an optical drive in the broadest sense, both copy protection and compression are important issues for optical storage, particularly for CE applications. Copy protection is usually implemented by a cooperative effort (electronically) between the disc being read and the drive reading it. Its goal is to prevent simplistic one-to-one copying and, more importantly, to prevent pirates from gaining access to the digital signal representing the disc content. Given the level of claimed revenue losses, it didn't work out that well for DVD-Video discs. Blue laser HDTV players and recorders will probably have a stronger 128-bit code to help eliminate unauthorized copying (both BD and HD DVD camps are cooperating on this goal, a strong demand of Hollywood). More efficient and less expensive compression is needed to compensate for a possible "no-growth in disc capacity" scenario (405nm blue wavelength and 0.85 NA limitations). The goal is to obtain HDTV quality video at the lowest possible average bit rate. New requirements for both copy protection and compression methods will generate opportunities for firmware and chip development and manufacturing.


Table 6: Near-Term Roadmap Optical Disc Storage Products – Next Generation (2005-2009)



Capacity (GB)

Write/Read Options

First Shipments

Market Segments

AOD/

HD DVD 5.25" HH replicated &

phase change/ 120mm

15/20 RO/RW 2005 1,2

AOD/ HD DVD

(dual layer) 5.25" HH

replicated & phase change/

120mm 30/32 RO/RW 2007 1,2

Blu-ray Disc (BD) 5.25" HH

replicated, dye layer & phase

change/ 120mm

23/25/27 RO/WO/RW 2004-05 1,2

Blu-ray Disc (dual layer) 5.25" HH


change/ 120mm

25/50 RO/WO/RW 2004-05 1,2

DataPlay Blue SFFD replicated &

phase change/ 32mm

3 RO/WO 2006 1,2

Digital MultiDisc (DMD)

5.25" HH replicated &

phase change/ 120mm

15-60 (3-12

layers) RO/WO 2005-07 1

EVD (dual layer) 5.25" HH

Replicated & dye layer/

120mm

6 11

RO WO 2006-07 1

Hi-MD 2.5" HH MO/ 64.8mm 1 RO/RW 2004 1,2

Holographic (InPhase)

5.25" (11" or 17" long)

photopolymer/ 130mm 200 WO 2005-06 3,4

Holographic (Optware) 19" RM photopolymer/

130mm 200 WO 2005-06 3,4

Prof. Disc for DATA -2 5.25" HH phase change/

120mm 50 WO/RW 2005-06 3

Prof. Disc for DATA -3 5.25" HH phase change/

120mm 100 WO/RW 2007-09 3

3.5" ISO MO 3.5" HH MO/ 86mm 4.6-6.9 RW 2005-06 2,3

UDO-2 (dual layer) 5.25" HH phase change/

130mm 60 WO/RO 2005-06 3,4

UDO-3 (dual layer) 5.25" HH phase change/

130mm 120 WO/RO 2007-09 3,4

UV-ray Disc (dual layer) 5.25" HH


120mm 334 RO/WO/RW 2009 1,2


Table 7: Long-Term Roadmap Optical Disc Storage Products – Future (2010-2015)



Capacity (GB)

Write/Read Options

First Shipments

Market Segments

AOD

HD DVD (quad layer)

5.25" HH replicated &

phase change/ 120mm

60/80 RO/RW 2010-11 1,2

Blu-ray Disc (quad layer) 5.25" HH


change/ 120mm

92/100/108 RO/WO/RW 2009-10 1,2

DataPlay Blue (dual/quad layer) SFFD


32mm 6-12 RO/WO 2010 1,2

Digital MultiDisc Blue 5.25" HH


120mm

150-200 (10 layers) RO/WO/RW 2010 1

EVD Blue (dual layer) 5.25" HH

replicated & dye layer/

120mm

24 40

RO WO 2010-12 1

Hi-MD Blue 2.5" HH MO/ 64.8mm 4-6 RO/RW 2010 1,2

Holographic (InPhase) 5.25" FH photopolymer/

130mm 1600 WO/RW 2012-15 3,4

Holographic (Optware) 5.25" FH photopolymer/

130mm 1000 WO/RW 2012-15 3,4

Prof. Disc for DATA-4

(quad layer) 5.25" HH phase change/

120mm 200 WO/RW 2010 3

3.5" ISO MO 3.5" HH MO/ 86mm 13.8-18.4 RW 2011-12 2,3

UDO-4 (quad layer) 5.25" HH phase change/

130mm 240 WO/RO 2010-12 3,4

UV-ray Disc (quad layer) 5.25" HH


120mm 864 RO/WO/RW 2014-15 1,2


Table 8: Roadmap Comparison for Sony PDD and Plasmon UDO22

1st

Generation 2nd

Generation 3rd

Generation 4th

Generation Comments

Sony Professional Disc for DATA 2003 2005 2007 2010

4th generation specs are estimated from prior generation data.

Media Type/Size (mm) phase

change/ 120mm

phase change/ 120mm

phase change/ 120mm

phase change/ 120mm

Cartridge media.

Media Types WO/RW WO/RW WO/RW WO/RW The need for WO media may not persist through the roadmap period.

Recording Sides 1 1 1 1 Near-front surface write/read. 0.1mm cover layer.

Recording Layers 1 2 2 4 2-layer discs are proven.

Capacity Goal (GB) 23.3 50 100 200 Requires areal density and layer number increases.

Data Rate Goal (MBps) 11 22 42 60 High streaming data rates required for some anticipated applications.

Access Time Goal (msec) 60 60 < 60 < 60 Fast access times not needed for most anticipated applications.

Media Cost Goal (US$/GB) 1.93 0.90 0.45 0.225 Based on US$45 initial

media cost.

Plasmon UDO 2003 2005 2007 2010 4th generation specs are estimated from prior generation data.

Media Type/Size (mm) phase

change/ 130mm

phase change/ 130mm

phase change/ 130mm

phase change/ 130mm

Cartridge media.

Media Types WO/RW WO/RW WO/RW WO/RW The need for WO media should persist through the roadmap period.

Recording Sides 2 2 2 2 Air sandwich architecture. Rear surface write/read.

Recording Layers 1 2 2 4 2-layer discs are proven.

Capacity Goal (GB) 30 60 120 240 Requires areal density and layer number increases.

Data Rate Goal (MBps) 8 12 18 27

Certain applications, for example, near-line data mining support, require the highest possible data rates.

Access Time Goal (msec) 25 25 25 25 Fast access times not needed for most anticipated applications.

Media Cost Goal (US$/GB) 2 1 0.50 0.25 Based on initial US$60

media cost.

22 All data provided in public domain disclosures by Sony and Plasmon, except for 4th generation estimates. Table

prepared by The ADVENT Group.


Table 9: Optical Storage Component/Subsystem Attributes

Component/ Subsystem 2003 2005 2007 2009 2015 Comments

Laser Wavelength (nm) 630-780 405-780 405-780 375-650 256-405

Through 2009, convergence on 405nm is expected. Beyond about 2010, UV lasers and media must be planned, if not implemented.

Laser Power (mW) 3-30 3-30 3-30 3-30 3-30

Recording speed and recording layer sensitivity are the pacing factors. Historically , this has been the range in laser powers for each generation.

Objective Lens NA 0.45-0.60 0.45-0.85 0.60-0.85 0.60-1.5 0.60-2.5 Assumes the introduction of NFR to obtain NA >1.

Disc Types replicated, WO, RW

replicated, WO, RW,

holographic

replicated, WO, RW,

holographic

replicated, WO, RW,

holographic

replicated, WO, RW,

holographic

Media types will probably stay the same. WO should survive the roadmap period.

Recording Layers 2 2 2-4 2-6 2-20

Each side of the disc. By 2009, areal densities will be so high that cartridge media will be required.

Data Encoding/Read Channel RLL/PRML RLL/PRML RLL/PRML RLL/PRML TBD

Multi-level, multi-layer, NFR, and combinations will require significant coding and signal processing as 100 Gb/in2 areal densities are approached.


Figure 8: Comparison of CD, DVD, and Blue Laser optical head designs, spot sizes, and

spatial structures (source: UNAXIS USA in Mediaware, May/June 2004, p.16).

Figure 9: Schematic architecture of a GaN blue laser diode.


Figure 10: Optware Collinear HDS prototype product line shown at ODS 2004 (April 2004; photo by ADVENT Group).

Figure 11: InPhase Technologies Tapestry HDS prototype product line (source: InPhase

Technologies).


(A)

(B) Figure 12: The Philips FluidFocus VFL concept and implementation. (A) illustrates the basic

design, showing three voltage-driven lens curvatures; response time is about 10 msec. (B) is a digital camera prototype; a smaller version will help enable sophisticated multilayer optical disc storage. Source: Philips Research.


Figure 13a: Photon Sieve for UV and X-ray spot formation. The mask pattern features

randomly located apertures of varying diameters. Source: University of Kiel (Germany).

Figure 13b: Photon Sieve for UV and X-ray spot formation. The classical Airy disc

(irradiance distribution) is on the right; the laser spot is generally defined as the full width, half maximum (FWHM) diameter. The photon sieve suppresses the side lobes, yielding a sharper focus and smaller spot. Source: University of Kiel (Germany).


5 Future Technology Needs Optical storage continues to develop in terms of areal data density and data transfer rate and shrink in terms of cost and equipment size. In the current configuration of optical storage devices, areal data density is a function of wavelength of the laser and the objective lens numerical aperture. This implies that technologies needed for improvement in this area are semiconductor lasers capable of operating at shorter wavelengths, and optical lens configurations with higher numerical apertures. As classical methods reach the end of their capabilities, super resolution technology must be implemented. Design approaches that include land/groove recording, multi-layer, multi-level recording, magneto-optic "super-resolution" (such as domain wall displacement), and improved data coding and detection and error correction must be pushed to their limits. Improved areal density techniques being investigated by some companies include near-field recording and flying optical head technologies. Development of high-volume, low-cost manufacturing approaches will be key to success for these new technologies. Increasing the per channel data transfer rate will require: (1) higher speed digital encode/decode channels, (2) higher power semiconductor lasers, (3) higher speed spindles, improved recording materials, and (4) increases in track and bit density. The overall device data transfer rate can also be increased by use of multiple recording heads and/or multiple data recording surfaces; however, this is expensive to implement and has proven unreliable in practice (other trades may be necessary). The higher data rates will generate a strong need for improved circuit board design tools that incorporate the RF design factors and transmission line layout into the process. This will become increasingly important to maintain satisfactory signal quality and robust data transfer performance in future products. Decreasing cost will require reduction in parts count, materials cost, and more efficient assembly and test processes. This, in turn, will require simplification of the mechanical elements of the drives as well as greater electronics integration. This is a well-developed art for current and next-generation optical storage devices. The real challenge will come with future-generation optical storage products. Decreasing device size will require minimizing dimensions of mechanical and optical elements, as well as increasing the electronic packaging density. Decreasing device size also increases the difficulty of heat removal and may necessitate reduced power dissipation for equivalent performance. Some of the areas that require significant R&D to ensure the future of optical storage devices and media include the following: • Blue and UV laser diodes with sufficient output power and compatible optical recording

layers that can meet or beat the dates shown in the roadmaps. • Information recording layers capable of supporting higher areal densities and data rates. • Transformation of multilevel and multilayer recording techniques into practical product

configurations. • Spindle and motor configurations capable of rotating the discs at speeds in excess of 10,000

rpm without excessive axial and radial runout and actual destruction of the disc.


• Solving materials and reliability challenges associated with the head-disk interface of near-field optical heads combined with removable plastic substrate media, especially for WO and RW media.

Several advanced optical storage technologies may hold the key to the future development of optical storage. Basic components and designs have been discussed previously, and formed the basis for the near-term and future roadmaps. Here, several specific examples are discussed; others are clearly possible. Ø Fluorescent Multilayer Discs (FMD ) Despite an uneven start by Constellation 3D (now D Data, NYC), FMD offers some unique opportunities for optical disc storage. Up to 20 layers are known to be feasible today, and perhaps in the future as many as 100 layers (ROM). A multilayer design of this type eliminates the need for multiple discs per spindle to match magnetic disc drive capacity, does not violate any media standards, makes direct piracy very difficult, and can take advantage of the existing hardware and media infrastructure. A variable focus and active aberration correction capability must be added to the optical head. Disc mastering and replication can be implemented without fundamental changes to the production line. To date, less than $20 million has been invested in FMD. Nevertheless, this has allowed rather impressive prototypes to be demonstrated. FMD is a concept well worth pursuing. Ø Holographic Data Storage (HDS) Volume holography permits parallel record and rapid access, as well as the possibility for associative recall – when implemented as a BORAM (block oriented random access memory). Today’s HDS under development by InPhase and Optware use a disc-oriented format based on WO photopolymers. This preserves parallel write/read, but results in slow accesses times typical of optical disc drives. For archival and serial streaming (AV) applications this may be satisfactory. However, the real potential of HDS can only be realized with a BORAM architecture. This requires development of (1) thicker, higher diffraction efficiency phase-only storage media, (2) higher power, more compact lasers (probably emitting in the blue-violet part of the visible spectrum); (3) less expensive, more accurate beam positioners, and (4) faster, much lower noise photodetector arrays. WO media is satisfactory for the large majority of applications. RW media is of questionable value, since individual holograms in a 3-D stack cannot be individually erased. A quasi-CD/DVD mastering-replication model in which a high priced writer produces RO 3-D hologram arrays for read out in a relatively inexpensive reader is one concept for commercialization until volume and industry acceptance reach critical levels. Ø Near Field Recording (NFR) The TeraStor debacle caused many companies to rethink their NFR strategies. Both sub-wavelength flying optical heads and contamination of the SIL by laser blow back are daunting challenges for MO media and may also be true for RW phase change media. WO media based on constrained dye systems are less of a problem. RO media read should be feasible. A combination of NFR and multilevel area modulation could provide significant areal density increases. The incorporation of the SIL onto the top surface of the disc (a continuous cylinder lens superimposed on the lands), as proposed by Calimetrics, might also increase reliability and minimize implementation difficulty.


Glossary AOD Advanced Optical Disc (now HD DVD) ASIC Application Specific Integrated Circuit BD Blu-ray Disc CD Compact Disk CLV Constant Linear Velocity CMOS Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor DVD Digital Versatile Disk EVD Enhanced Versatile Disc Gb gigabit (109 bits) GB gigabyte (109 bytes; 1 byte = 8 bits) HAMR Head Assisted Magnetic Recording HD DVD High Density (formerly, Definition) DVD HDD Hard Disk Drive HDS Holographic Data System ISI Intersymbol Interference ISO International Standards Organization MEMS Microelectromechanical Systems MO Magneto-Optical MRAM Magnetic Random Access Memory NSIC National Storage Industry Consortium PRML Partial Response Maximum Likelihood, Signal coding PB petabyte (1015 bytes) RLL Run Length Limited RO Read-Only (same as ROM) RW ReWritable (same as erasable) SSFD Small Form Factor Disc SIL Solid Immersion Lens TB Terabyte (1012 bytes) UDO Ultra-Density Optical WO Write-Once (same as WORM) WORM Write Once Read Mostly

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