opportunities - narfu.ru · resource base tight gas: 16 112 tcf = 456 tcm cbm: 9 050 tcf = 256 tcm...

Prof. Anatoly Zolotukhin

OPPORTUNITIES

for Oil and Gas Resources Development in the Arctic

Gubkin Russian State

University of Oil and Gas

University of

Stavanger

International Winter School12-16 March 2018

Arkhangelsk

Higher School of

Energy, Oil and Gas

2

Petroleum resources in a modern world

2

Lecture 1

World Primary Energy Consumption

3

Source: INES RAS report, May 2013

Total: 12,8 BTOE

(~ 92 Bboe)

Total: 18,0 BTOE

(~ 130 Bboe)

http://www.eriras.ru/files/Global_and_Russian_energy_outlook_up_to_2040.pdf

3

http://www.eriras.ru/files/Global_and_Russian_energy_outlook_up_to_2040.pdf

Global Oil and Gas Resources and Reserves

March 5, 2018 4

5

Global Oil Reserves

It is believed that oil is referred to as a non-renewable energy resource. Proven oil reserves are ca. 239 BTO (June 2016) (1700 Bbo), unexplored resources are estimated to be 42-208 BTO (300-1500 Bbo).

World proven reserves at the beginning of 1973 were estimated to be 80 BTO (570 Bbo). It the past explored reserves were growing as the oil consumption – during the last 40 years it has grown from 20,0 to 35 Bbo per annum).

Starting from 1984 annual oil production exceeds explored volumes.Global oil production in 2017 amounted to ca. 4,55 BTO per annum (34 Bbo/year).

With current rate of production the explored oil is enough for ca. 50 years< and unexplored – for additional 10-50 years.

6

Global Oil & Gas Reserves

OilBT

GasTn m3

GasBTOE

Oil & GasBTOE

239.0 186.9 168.3 407.4

Source: BP Statistical review, 2016

Global Oil and Gas Reserves

March 5, 2018 8

Concept of uncertainty in oil and gas resources estimate90%

50%

10%

P10P50P90

Resource

Pro

bab

ility

/ C

han

ce

Р90 – proven reserves

Global Oil & Gas Reserves – probabilistic approach

Global oil reserves

0,9

1

1,1

1,2

1,5

1,7

1,7

2

2,2

3,4

3,7

4,9

5,4

5,5

9

11,5

13

14

15,5

18,9

36,3

0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0

Sudan

Azerbaijan

Norway

Angola

Algeria

Brasil

Mexico

Qatar

China

Canada

USA

Nigeria

Libya

Kazakhstan

Russia

Venezuela

UAE

Kuwait

Iraq

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Billio

n t

on

es

9

Global oil reserves (Р90) at 2008

05.03.2018

Global Oil Reserves

1005.03.2018

Total for 20 countries: 229,3 BT(96% global oil reserves)

Global Oil Reserves

1105.03.2018

Global Gas Reserves

Russia – 1st place

20 countries total: 160,2 BTOE(96% global gas reserves)

05.03.2018 12

Global oil and gas reserves (Р90) at 2008


05.03.2018 13


20 countries total: 373,2 BTOE(92,5% of global oil and gas reserves)

Unconventional hydrocarbon resources

Gas hydrates

Shale gas

Coal bed methane (CBM)

Extra heavy oil and bitumen

Shale (tight) oil and oil shales (source rock oil)

14

Unconventional oil resources

Naturally occuring:

Extra heavy oil and bitumen – ca. 6 trillion bbls

Oil from mature source rocks – ca. 3 trillion bbls

Shale oil – ca. 3 trillion bbls;

Oil shales (kerogenic shale) Russian estimates: 5.7-15 trillion bbls (0.8-

2.1 trillion tones in Russia alone!)*

Total (resource base): 12 trillion bbls (1.7 trillion tones)

17.7-27 Tbbls (2.4-3.7 trillion tones)

Additional sources of liquid HC:

Gas-to-Liquid (GTL)

Coal to liquids (CTL)

Biofuel

Adapted from W. Fisher, Presentation at RIPED conf, China,2008

*A. Bokserman, 2010

15

Resource base

Tight gas: 16 112 TCF = 456 TCM

CBM: 9 050 TCF = 256 TCM

Gas hydrates: up to 530 000 TCF = 15 000 TCM

Total (resource base): 15700 TCM (15.7 trillion TOE)

Existing challenges:

Demand for new efficient and cost-effective technologies

Energy loss and Net Energy

Adapted from W. Fisher, Presentation at RIPED conf, China,2008

Unconventional gas resources

16

17

Global resources of shale oil

05.03.2018

Источник: МЭА, 2013 г.

Total on 20 countries: 35,7 BTOE(71% of Global resources)

1805.03.2018


Global resources of shale gas

Total on 20 countries: 148.5 BTOE(89% of Global resources)

1905.03.2018


Global resources of shale oil and gas

Total on 20 countries: 183.2 BTOE(85% of Global resources)

20

Global resources of conventional and shale hydrocarbons

05.03.2018

Source: МЭА, 2013 г.


ResourceOil Gas Oil & Gas

BT BTOE BTOE

Conventional 239 168,3 407,4

Shales 48,6 166,7 215,3

Total 287,6 335 622,7

Shales, % 16,9 49,8 34,6

21

Страны, обладающие самыми крупными ресурсами традиционных и сланцевых УВ

05.03.2018

Source: МЭА, 2013 г.

Russia


RUSSIAOil Gas Oil & Gas

BT BTOE BTOE

Conventional 14,1 43,04 57,14

Shales 10,6 6,8 17,4

Total 24,7 49,84 74,54

Shales, % 42,9 13,6 23,3

CHINAOil Gas Oil & Gas

BT BTOE BTOE


Shales 4,4 26,4 30,8

Total 6,9 29,4 36,27

Shales, % 63,8 89,9 84,9

USAOil Gas Oil & Gas

BT BTOE BTOE


Shales 8,1 13,3 21,4

Total 14,0 21,9 35,8

Shales, % 57,7 61,0 59,7

ALGERIAOil Gas Oil & Gas

BT BTOE BTOE


Shales 0,8 16,7 17,5

Total 2,3 20,7 23,1

Shales, % 35,7 80,4 75,9

USA

China Algeria

World Ocean Petroleum Resources

2222

23

World Ocean HC Resources

Ref.: A. Kontorovich, RAO-2009

BTOE – billion ton of oil

equivalent

23

24

Main offshore and arctic development projects

Alaska

Canada

Norway

Denmark (Greenland)

Russia

Kazakhstan

Azerbaijan

Turkmenistan

Iran

Venezuela

Brasil

West Africa

Australia

Vietnam

Indonesia

Malaysia

China

Asia-Pacific Region

25

Offshore Petroleum Production Areas

Ref.: Julia S.P. Loe, Arctic Dialogue, Bode, 2014 (updated)

Ref.: J.-G. Winther, High North Dialogue, Bodø, 2014

27

Arctic Council

27

28

Thirteen Non-arctic States have been approved as Observers to the Arctic Council

28

1. France - Barrow Ministerial meeting, 20002. Germany - Iqaluit Ministerial meeting, 1998*3. Italian Republic - Kiruna Ministerial meeting, 20134. Japan - Kiruna Ministerial meeting, 2013*5. The Netherlands - Iqaluit Ministerial meeting, 1998*6. People's Republic of China - Kiruna Ministerial meeting,

20137. Poland - Iqaluit Ministerial meeting, 1998*8. Republic of India - Kiruna Ministerial meeting, 20139. Republic of Korea - Kiruna Ministerial meeting, 201310. Republic of Singapore - Kiruna Ministerial meeting,

201311. Spain - Salekhard Ministerial meeting, 200612. Switzerland - Fairbanks Ministerial meeting, 201713. United Kingdom - Iqaluit Ministerial meeting, 1998*

29

Arctic

Oil and Gas Resources:

US, Canada and Greenland

29

30

World Ocean HC Resources

Why Arctic is

so

important?

By 2035 the demand for oil

and gas will grow globally

by 18% and 44%,

respectively

60% of planned oil and gas

production in 2035 will be

from fields, not yet found

and discovered

Ref.: DNV Summer project 2011, World Energy

Outlook, Oil & Gas Journal, USGS

30

31

Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic

Donald L. Gautier, et al. Science 324, 1175 (2009); DOI: 10.1126/science.1169467

Undiscovered Oil

31

32

Undiscovered Gas

Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic

Donald L. Gautier, et al. Science 324, 1175 (2009); DOI: 10.1126/science.1169467

32

Belonin, M.D. and Grigorenko, Yu.N.

In the book «Oil and Gas of the Arctic», Moscow, 2007

Undiscovered Arctic oil and gas potentialCircumpolar belt of hydrocarbon accumulation: 17 petroleum

basins of Eurasia, North America and Greenland

33

34

Arctic Offshore – HC Potential

Resources of the Russian Arctic

Source: State Committee on Reserves (GKZ), 2018

34

Category Type of HC Shelf OnshoreOnshore+offshore

ABC1+C2 Oil 0.6 6.7 7.3

ABC1+C2 Gas 9.5 36.0 45.5

C3+D Oil 12.7 14.2 26.9

C3+D Gas 76.6 51.4 128.0

Total oil Oil 13.3 20.9 34.2

Total gas Gas 86.0 87.5 173.5

Total HC Oil + Gas 99.3 108.4 207.7

Resources of the total Arctic

Source: USGS, 2013

BTO TCM BTOE

Oil Gas Oil+gas

Offshore 15.59 39.70 51.35

Onshore 2.97 7.56 9.78

Total Arctic 18.56 47.26 61.14

Alaska Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) planning

areas undiscovered potential (p50, BBOE)

Source: Assessment of Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas Resources of the Nation’s Outer

Continental Shelf, BOEM, 2011: http://www.boem.gov/uploadedFiles/2011_National_Assessment_Factsheet.pdf

13.14 29.04

0.82

1.34

0.38

0.1

2.290.71

0.35

0.6

1.23

P50:

50.0

BBOEP95: 17.25

P5: 103.77

35

http://www.boem.gov/uploadedFiles/2011_National_Assessment_Factsheet.pdf

Source: Assessment of Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas Resources of the Nation’s Outer

Continental Shelf, BOEM, 2011: http://www.boem.gov/uploadedFiles/2011_National_Assessment_Factsheet.pdf

Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and

Gas Resources of US OCS regions

Mean undiscovered Technically Recoverable Resources by type and region

36

http://www.boem.gov/uploadedFiles/2011_National_Assessment_Factsheet.pdf

Canada: Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin

Discovered:

52 fields those hold reserves of…

Oil: 172.75 mln. sm3

Gas: 254.67 bln. sm3

+ Gas hydrates: 2.4-87 tsm3

Source:http://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1335971994893/1335972853094#fig2

Expected undiscovered:

RCO: 957.2 mln. sm3

Gas: 1.640 tsm3

Source: ftp://ftp2.cits.rncan.gc.ca/pub/geott/ess_pubs/220/220353/of_4828.zip (2005) 37

http://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1335971994893/1335972853094#fig2

ftp://ftp2.cits.rncan.gc.ca/pub/geott/ess_pubs/220/220353/of_4828.zip

Canadian production with split on Life Cycle Category

forecast extended to 2050

Only 6 wells in West Greenland in an area three times the size of the North Sea

USGS P50 estimate for Greenland’s hydrocarbon potential is ~50 billion boe

Ref: K. Mørk, DnV, 2012

West Greenland

39

40

Norwegian Petroleum Resources

40

Producing, developed and discovered fields

HC Resource Potential of Norwegian Continental Shelf

Undiscovered unawarded resources

Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)

Oil production in Norway 1978 to 2033

42

HC Resources of the Norwegian Arctic

Source: NPD, Facts book, 2010

43

and as of 01.04.2014

44

Russian Petroleum Industry

44

Russia’s conventional HC reserves & resources

Ref.: D. Khramov, Rus-Norw Seminar, June 20, 2011

Total: 355 BTOE

US DOE (June 11, 2013): Russia has ca. 175 BTO in oil shales

45

46

Oil majors in the Arctic

46

48

Almost 1/3 of the Russian territory is in the Arctic

2/3 of the territory is covered with permafrost

Admiral S. Makarov: “Russia is a building which

facade is facing the Arctic”

Russia in the Arctic

49

Permafrost distribution: - Continuous

- Intermittent

- Insular

- Absence of

permafrost

- Pipelines

- Compressor stations

- UGSF

- Gazpom’s license areas

- Gas processing plant


50

A rough evaluation says that each dollar invested in the Arctic could

bring a 7-fold profit.

The Russian part of the Arctic is the richest in petroleum resources.

Estimate of Ministry of Natural Resources:

Russian arctic shelves contain ca. 15.5 billion tones of oil and 84,5

TCM gas (~ 100 BTOE = 720 Bbbloe).

Around 50 international companies participate in the development

of petroleum and other types of resources in Russia eyeing HC fields

and structures in Barents, Pechora and Kara seas (and even further

eastward).


51

Technically recovered HC resources of the arctic shelves

52


Category % Shelf OnshoreOnshore &

offshore

ABC1+C2 90 10.1 42.7 52.8

C3+D 10 89.3 65.6 154.9

Total HC HC 99.3 108.4 207.7

Source: State Committee on Reserves (GRZ), October 2017

Oil and gas resources of the Russian Arctic

53

Technically recovered HC resources of the arctic shelves

Distribution of the YTF resources in the offshore Russian Arctic

Arctic offshore global oil and gas production forecast, 2000–2040

2020-2025Dolginskoye Yuzhnoe, RU

Kamennomysskoye Sev., RU

Rakushechnoye, RU

Khvalynskoye, RU

Sakhalin, RU

Tsentralnaya, RU

Sarmatskaya, RU

Johan Castberg

(Skrugard), NO

Snohvit, ph.2, NO

Mizzen, CA

Kuvlum, US

Kaktovik, US

2030++Leningradskoye, RU

Rusanovskoye, RU

Shtokman, RU

EPNZ Blocks, RU

Lisyanskiy Block, RU

Barents Sea Structures, RU

Magadan Basin, RU

Sakhalin Anticlinorium, RU

East-Siberian Sea, RU

Issungnak, CA

Point Thomson, ph.2, US

2000-2015Prirazlomnoe, RU

Yurkharovskoye, RU

Sakhalin-1, RU

Sakhalin-2,3, RU

Snohvit, NO

White Rose, CA

Terra Nova, CA

Hibernia, CA

Sable, CA

Prudhoe Bay, US

Northstar, US

2015-2020

Vl.Filanovsky, RU

Sakhalin-2,3, RU

Goliath, NO

Hebron, CA

Amauligak, CA

Point Thomson, ph.1, US

2025-2030Kamennomysskoe-more,

RU

Medyn-more, RU

Obskoe, RU

Sakhalin-4, 5, 6, RU

Kashevarovsky block, RU

South Barents Sea Basin,

RU

East Sakhalin Anticlinor.,

RU

Finnmark Platform, NO

Pactoa, CA

Bjarni, CA

Color identifies

the country

HC Resource Potential of the Russian Arctic shelves

Kara Sea

(w/o Ob & Tazov bays)

Barents Sea

Laptev, East-Siberian & Chukchi seas

Sea of Okhotsk

Producing, under development,

discovered and undiscovered fieldsLiquid / gas

Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)

Global Arctic offshore

oil and gas production

+ Yamal onshore

Yamal

By 2040 – 8,2%

of the global

O&G production

Yamal onshore

Global

Arctic Offshore

HC Resource Potential of the Russian Arctic shelves

Yamburgskoye

Medvezhje

Bovanenkovskoye

Yurkharovskoye

Novatek fields (Yamal LNG)

Tambei fields

Rusanovskoye

Leningradskoye

East-Prinovozemelskie

blocks

Production forecast of the largest onshore and offshore fields of Yamal peninsula, 2000–2040 гг.

Far East: map of recoverable petroleum resources

The following clusters are

considered in the study:

Sakhalin onshore+offshore

Kamchatka

Magadan

Yakutia

Прогноз добычи по шельфу

Сахалина

Lunskoye

Chaivo

Odopty

Yuzhno

Kirinskoye

Chaivo, gas

Kirinsloye

Arkutun-Dagi

Sakhalin

Antiklinorii

Sakhalin development forecast

Far East production forecast

Far East petroleum resources

Caspian Petroleum Resources

6161

Resource base

Resources potential

Distribution of HC resources between the countries in the Caspian region

62

Production forecast from the Caspian Sea up to 2040

Kashagan

Shah-Deniz

Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli

Khvalynskoye Rakushechnoye

Umid

Vl Filanovsky

63

Recoverable Petroleum Resources of the Russian Arctic

By 2040

65

Technology for operations in the Arctic with water depth exceeding 500 ft (150 m) is under sanctions

Russia has to develop its own upstream sector:

Seismic vessels and drilling ships,

GBS, SSP, Jack-up platforms and other

installations,

Equipment and technology

66

State of the Arctic shelf exploration as of 2015

Challenges in exploration

Russia has 14 deep water shipsfor seismic survey from which –only 3 capable to carry limitedvolume 3D seismic (each has 3-8 short streamers of 6.5 kmeach).

Modern seismic ships equippedwith 12-22 longer streamers,which is very important in theshort arctic seasons.

The best Russia vessel “Vyacheslav Tikhonov” has 8 streamers with total length of 48 km which has 3 times less efficiency as compared with modern Norwegian vessels with 18 streamers each (Ramform type).

This means that to explore an area of 10 000 sq. km Russian vessel needs 2 years while Norwegian ship – one season.

67

State of the Arctic shelf exploration as of 2013

Challenges in exploration drilling

Number of exploration wells on theRussian Arctic shelf – 88 wells while on theBritish and Norwegian continental shelves– ca. 5000 wells.

Russia should drill additionally fewthousand exploration wells to achievereasonable certainty level of the exploredresources

During next 15-20 years Russia will need atleast 13-15 floating drilling units capableto work on Arctic shelves

68

Gazprom’s 2015-2024 exploration program

Region Number of wells

Barents and Pechora seas 20

Kara Sea and Ob and Tazov bays 41

Sea of Okhotsk 19

Total 80

Source: Shelf of Russia and CIS, May 22 2015, Moscow

69

The first Russian exploratory well in the Kara Sea

Universitetskaya-1

Russian oil company, Rosneft,and American oil and gascorporation ExxonMobil havediscovered the new oil and gasfield during drilling on theUniversitetskaya-1 well in theKara Sea.

Drilling was carried out inrecord time - one and a halfmonths.

Total [technically] recoverable resources of oil 130 million tons of oil (0,94 Bbo) and 499 BCM of gas.

The total expenses related to the discovery is evaluated as 600 MUSD.

The water depth is 81 meters; TVD of the well – 2113 m. Ref.: http://www.rosneft.ru

70

SCF Sovcomflot

As of January 2016

153 specialized vessels

~ 13 million mt dwt

Crude oil tankers

Product tankers

LNG carriers

LPG carriers

Offshore fleet:

– Shuttle tankers

– IBSVs (34 acting, 4 under construction, 9 in design

– Marine seismics

– Research vessels

Ref: Shelf of Russia and CIS, May 22 2015, Moscow (augmented)


71

Russia’s weak points:

It doesn’t have a capacity to build LNG-tankers

No technology to build subsea modules

Bottle neck – naval mechanical engineering, especially diesel power systems

Russia’s strong points:

Icebeakers fleet

Nuclear power systems – best in the world

New design – Floating Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP)

72

Future Multipurpose Hubs?

Ref: North Energy, Presentation at AROG conference, 2014

GBS-, floating- or land based hubs

with support functions such as:

Emergency operations /coordination

Weather surveillance

Hospitals/medical facilities

Firefighting equipment

Oil spill recovery equipment

Additional systems and equipment for SAR

Communication facilities

Helicopter base

Electricity transformers

LNG

OIL

NGL

NGL

LNG

73

Conditions of sustainable Arctic development

Conditions for developing new technologies and breaking new frontiers through

Continuous dialogue

Collaboration

Internationalization of education

Training of specialists

74March 5, 2018

Hard-to-recover reserves

Shale oil Oil rims Fissured carbonate reservoirs Arctic offshore oil and gas reserves Increasing fond of idling wells

Intellectual systems of field development High technology wells Integrated drilling service Expansion of lab and methodical base for research Technology Management System development Energy efficiency programme

New EOR technology

ASP technology Multistage Hydraulic fracturing New technologies for Repair and Insulation works (RIW)

Technological challenges and future tasks

75

Most efficient ways od HC Resources development in newregions:

– Deployment of breakthrough technologies based onsmart complexes for oil and gas production from hard-to-recover resources (in part or in whole automated andunmanned);

– Development of giant and large oil and gas fields andreduction of unit cost due to the project scale;

– Development of control centers based on the IntegratedOperations (IO) principle


Source: A, Dmitrievsky, N. Eremin. XX Gubkin lectures, 2013

76

Transfer from unique toroutine operations ofresources developmentin HC clusters;

Use of IO conceptincluding digital oilfield, intellectualexploration andproduction, transport,energy supply, logistics

and marketing.

Source: A, Dmitrievsky, N. Eremin. XX Gubkin lectures, 2013


Prof. Anatoly Zolotukhin

[email protected]

March 5, 2018 77

opportunities - narfu.ru · resource base tight gas: 16 112 tcf = 456 tcm cbm: 9 050 tcf = 256 tcm...

Documents