operations analysis in bulgaria and nato
DESCRIPTION
Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO. Klaus Niemeyer. Success. Victory. Operations Analysis. Comparison. Model Application. Calculation. (Simulation). Assessment. Model. Measurements. Mathematics, Physics,. Ground. Perception of Reality. ANCIENT. TODAY. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO
Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO
Klaus NiemeyerKlaus Niemeyer
Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO
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VictoryVictory SuccessSuccess
ComparisonComparisonOperations Operations
AnalysisAnalysis
CalculationCalculation Model ApplicationModel Application(Simulation)(Simulation)
AssessmentAssessment ModelModel
MeasurementsMeasurements Mathematics, Physics, ...Mathematics, Physics, ...
GroundGround Perception of RealityPerception of Reality
ANCIENTANCIENT TODAYTODAY
Sun Tzu and Scientific SupportSun Tzu and Scientific SupportSun Tzu and Scientific SupportSun Tzu and Scientific Support
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Definition of Operations Definition of Operations ResearchResearch
Definition of Operations Definition of Operations ResearchResearch
"OR is a scientific method of providing executive administrators with a decisions regarding the operations under their control."
"OR is a scientific method of providing executive administrators with a quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control."
Morse, Kimball 1950Morse, Kimball 1950
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Reduction of Reduction of ComplexityComplexity
ResearchResearch
EngineeringEngineering
NoiseNoise
NoiseNoise
NoiseNoise
TestingTesting
TrainingTraining
RealityReality
CoreCore
ConstructConstruct
AnalysesAnalyses
SynthesesSyntheses
AddingAddingComplexityComplexity
ModelModel
ConstructConstruct
ConstructConstruct
Evolution of Modelling and SimulationEvolution of Modelling and Simulation
PrototypingPrototyping
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For given objectives:For given objectives:
of forces in order to optimizeof forces in order to optimize
resources?resources?
What is the best composition,What is the best composition,
and:and:
What is the best employmentWhat is the best employment
xxx x
xxIII
"To win without fighting is best."
Sun Tzu
Defense PlanningDefense Planning
Operational PlanningOperational Planning
The Operations Analysis The Operations Analysis ProblemProblem
The Operations Analysis The Operations Analysis ProblemProblem
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OA in NATOOA in NATOOA in NATOOA in NATONATO(NC3A, Military HQ, (RTO),..)USA (Rand, IDA, …)UKGermanyFranceCanadaThe NetherlandsNorwayDenmarkTurkey….
NATO(NC3A, Military HQ, (RTO),..)USA (Rand, IDA, …)UKGermanyFranceCanadaThe NetherlandsNorwayDenmarkTurkey….
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MilitaryMilitary PlannersPlannersScientistsScientists
ProblemProblem
OptionsOptions
ToolsTools SolutionSolution
Joint AnalysisJoint AnalysisJoint AnalysisJoint Analysis
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Wide Scope of ProcessesWide Scope of ProcessesWide Scope of ProcessesWide Scope of Processes
FORCE PREPARATION
DEFENSESTRUCTURE
DEPLOYMENT
PREPARATIONIN THEATRE
INFRASTRUCTUREPREPARATION
CONTINGENCYPLANNING
SUSTAINMENT
ENGAGEMENT
REDEPLOYMENTFORCEIDENTIFICATION
INTELLIGENCE
OPERATIONOPERATIONPEACEPEACE
TRAINING
TRANSITIONTRANSITION
Defense Defense PlanningPlanning OperationalOperational
PlanningPlanning
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Analysis of ObjectiveAnalysis of Objective
ObjectiveObjective
Development of OptionsDevelopment of Options
Assessment of OptionsAssessment of Options
DecisionDecisionPlanningPlanning
ExecutionExecution
Own ForcesOwn ForcesOpponent ForcesOpponent Forces-Capability?-Capability?-Intention?-Intention?
Force ComparisonForce Comparison
StatusStatus
PlanningPlanning““What, if’”What, if’”
MissionMissionMissionMission
SituationSituationAnalysesAnalysesSituationSituationAnalysesAnalyses
EnvironmentEnvironment-Terrain-Terrain-Weather-Weather-Population-Population
PerceptionPerception
AnticipationAnticipation
Decision CycleDecision CycleDecision CycleDecision Cycle
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Present IssuesPresent IssuesPresent IssuesPresent Issues
Operational SupportTraining: CAXCapability RequirementsConcept Development & ExperimentationNet Enabled Capabilities- C4ISR
Operational SupportTraining: CAXCapability RequirementsConcept Development & ExperimentationNet Enabled Capabilities- C4ISR
Logical Build up of ObjectivesLogical Build up of ObjectivesLogical Build up of ObjectivesLogical Build up of Objectives
AnalysesAnalyses
StartStart 1 2 EndEndYearYear
MethodologyMethodology
Centre of ExcellenceCentre of Excellence
Scientific Basis in BulgariaScientific Basis in Bulgaria
Project:
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Criteria of SuccessCriteria of SuccessCriteria of SuccessCriteria of Success
1.Objective: Centre of Excellence (25%) Accepted papers in international magazins Hired scientists in NC3A
2.Objective: Methodology (25%) Participants in OR conferences RTO-SAS/NMSG participation
3.Objective: Analyses (50%) Tasking organisations in Bulgaria Projects for NC3A
1.Objective: Centre of Excellence (25%) Accepted papers in international magazins Hired scientists in NC3A
2.Objective: Methodology (25%) Participants in OR conferences RTO-SAS/NMSG participation
3.Objective: Analyses (50%) Tasking organisations in Bulgaria Projects for NC3A
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TACOM Exercise TACOM Exercise General Structure General Structure TACOM Exercise TACOM Exercise General Structure General Structure
Control/Leadership Control/Leadership
ParticipantsParticipants
DialogueDialogue
Training/TeachingTraining/TeachingGeneration of KnowledgeGeneration of Knowledge
EnvironmentEnvironmentSimulationSimulation
(Script)(Script)
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TACOM: Standard SoftwareTACOM: Standard SoftwareTACOM: Standard SoftwareTACOM: Standard Software
MS-Data Access MS-Data Access ObjectsObjects
MS-Visual BasicMS-Visual Basic(Applications)(Applications)
Map Objects/ArcViewMap Objects/ArcView(Situation)(Situation)MS-AccessMS-Access
MS-WordMS-Word
MS-OutlookMS-Outlook(Macros)(Macros)
PowersimPowersim(Simulation)(Simulation) MS-ExcelMS-Excel
ScriptScript( Preparation)( Preparation)
Communication, Communication, Events, SituationEvents, SituationDocumentationDocumentation(Exercise)(Exercise)
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TACOM software architectureTACOM software architectureTACOM software architectureTACOM software architecture
Message Handling System
Display System
MessagesMessages
Simulation
StaticStatic
DynamicDynamicScript
Command&ControlCommand&Control ScenarioScenario
ParticipantsParticipants
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Defense Requirements Review Defense Requirements Review (Plan 2015)(Plan 2015)
Defense Requirements Review Defense Requirements Review (Plan 2015)(Plan 2015)
Planning Situations /Scenarios
Capability Requirements
Force Structure
Political Guidance
Security Environment
Risk Assessment
Constraints
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AttributesAttributesAttributesAttributes
Operations orientedStaff rotationHigh responsibilityHigh visibilityGovernment
Operations orientedStaff rotationHigh responsibilityHigh visibilityGovernment
CompetitionProfit orientedEffective-productiveHigh salariesAttractive
CompetitionProfit orientedEffective-productiveHigh salariesAttractive
Scientific standardsVerification/Falsification TransparencyThink tankNot for profitLow salariesNeutralContinuity
Scientific standardsVerification/Falsification TransparencyThink tankNot for profitLow salariesNeutralContinuity
Military:Military:
Science:Science:
Commercial:Commercial:
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Fundamental PrinciplesFundamental PrinciplesFundamental PrinciplesFundamental Principles
Neutrality („non for profit“, no mercantile accomplisments)Continuity (Corporate knowledge, long term employees,
reputation)Flexibility (Quick response, no bureaucratic constraints)Scientific State of Art (Link to scientific and industrial
communities)Customer Relationship (High integration, co-operation,
synergies)Management (Planning, Controlling, Motivation)
Neutrality („non for profit“, no mercantile accomplisments)Continuity (Corporate knowledge, long term employees,
reputation)Flexibility (Quick response, no bureaucratic constraints)Scientific State of Art (Link to scientific and industrial
communities)Customer Relationship (High integration, co-operation,
synergies)Management (Planning, Controlling, Motivation)
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The Optimum Organisational The Optimum Organisational StructureStructure
The Optimum Organisational The Optimum Organisational StructureStructure
Non for Profit
Basic Funding
Independent
Attractive Salaries
Integrated into Scientific Community
Close Relation to Customer
Non for Profit
Basic Funding
Independent
Attractive Salaries
Integrated into Scientific Community
Close Relation to Customer
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ConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsConclusions
Defense research organizations in Bulgaria do not have managementarrangements, appropriate for the conduct of or participation in researchprojects, and especially international research projects. It is difficult to find, motivate and keep involved young scientists in thecurrent environment in BAS.The culture of using OA / CAX requires considerable further promotion andimprovement among end-users in the security sector.Support from international experts and the integration into internationalprojects is essential for the continuity of the capability.The methodology of applied Operations Analysis, (not only the classicalmathematical Operations Research) Modeling, and Simulation should be a keyelement in academic curricula.The existence of the established capacity can only be sustained if a sufficientThe existence of the established capacity can only be sustained if a sufficientfunding and tasking by the end users is guarantied.funding and tasking by the end users is guarantied.The capacity of a “think tank” institution is a high value asset in nationalThe capacity of a “think tank” institution is a high value asset in nationalsecurity structures.security structures.The payoff for the investment in such an institution is very large in comparison to The payoff for the investment in such an institution is very large in comparison to
other defense assets or in relation to potentially wrong decisions in catastrophic other defense assets or in relation to potentially wrong decisions in catastrophic situations.situations.
Defense research organizations in Bulgaria do not have managementarrangements, appropriate for the conduct of or participation in researchprojects, and especially international research projects. It is difficult to find, motivate and keep involved young scientists in thecurrent environment in BAS.The culture of using OA / CAX requires considerable further promotion andimprovement among end-users in the security sector.Support from international experts and the integration into internationalprojects is essential for the continuity of the capability.The methodology of applied Operations Analysis, (not only the classicalmathematical Operations Research) Modeling, and Simulation should be a keyelement in academic curricula.The existence of the established capacity can only be sustained if a sufficientThe existence of the established capacity can only be sustained if a sufficientfunding and tasking by the end users is guarantied.funding and tasking by the end users is guarantied.The capacity of a “think tank” institution is a high value asset in nationalThe capacity of a “think tank” institution is a high value asset in nationalsecurity structures.security structures.The payoff for the investment in such an institution is very large in comparison to The payoff for the investment in such an institution is very large in comparison to
other defense assets or in relation to potentially wrong decisions in catastrophic other defense assets or in relation to potentially wrong decisions in catastrophic situations.situations.
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DeterrenceDeterrence
PersuasionPersuasion
Research Research and Developmentand Development
Virtual Virtual PotentialPotential
AquisitionAquisition
DemonstrationDemonstration
Projection of PowerProjection of Power
ForcesForces
Projection of Projection of CapabilitiesCapabilities
ResourcesResources
ResourcesResources
The Change of ParadigmThe Change of ParadigmThe Change of ParadigmThe Change of Paradigm