opening keynote presentation: dennis woodside
TRANSCRIPT
Thinking ExponentiallyHow to anticipate the next 4 consumer-driven disruptions
D i W d idDennis Woodside
Google Confidential and Proprietary
I’m a Mac. I’m a Nexus One!
Technology progresses exponentially!
Progression of Flight Progression of ComputingProgression of Flight Progression of Computing
Consumer adoption of internet = exponential!
TV
Internet Radio
1450
1836
1895
1922
1927
1941
1990
2010
Tech Content Users Advertising
Where we stand today
$500B2009
eCommerce sales
1.6Bpeople online (up from 500M
60Bsearches
conducted per
20 hrsVideo uploaded every minute to
in 2003) month worldwide YouTube
Google Confidential and Proprietary
What’s next? 4 disruptions
1. Search: Richer, more intense and more global
2. Video: Addressable & “on-demand”
3. Mobility: More important than the PC
4. Computing: From the hard-drive to the cloud
1. Search: Richer, more global, more social
1. Search: Richer information faster
1. Search: Travel research intensifiesBack-Up:
Google.comBack-Up:
Google.com
Back-Up:Google.com
Back-Up:Google.com
Click:AffordableTours.com
Click:Cruise.com
Click:VacationsToGo.com
Click:GalvestonCruises.com
Log on:Google.com
Search:“Galveston Cruises”
Refine Search:“Galveston Cruises Cheap” gg
Back-Up:Google.com
Back-Up:Back-Up:
Click:CruiseMagic.com
Click:eCruises.com
Click:Travelocity.com
Click:Click:
p
Search:“Vacation Spots”
Refine Search:
Direct Type:Google.com
pGoogle.com
pGoogle.com
Back-Up:Google.com
About.comClick:
DiscountThemeParkVacations.com
Click:Orbitz.com
Click:CheapTickets.com
Refine Search:“Disney World Vacations”
Search:“Free Vacations”
Refine Search:“Cheap Vacations”
Direct Type:Google.com
Back-Up:Google.com
Back-Up:Google com
Back-Up:Google com
Back-Up:Google com
Click:Expedia.com
Click:CheapCaribbean com
Click:AllInclusiveOutlet com
Click:About com
Refine Search:“All Inclusive Vacations”
Refine Search:“All Inclusive Puerto Rico”
Back-Up:Google.com
Google.com Google.com Google.comCheapCaribbean.com AllInclusiveOutlet.com About.com
Click:Expedia.com
Click:SaveOnVacationPackages.com
Refine Search:“Puerto Rico All Inclusive”
Direct Type:Orbitz.com
Di t T Di t T
Back-Up:Google.com
Click:CopaMarina.com
2 Days Later:Booked on Expedia
Log OffSearch:“Puerto Rico Hotel”
Direct Type:Google.com
Direct Type:Expedia.com
Source: Compete, Inc. May 2009
1. Search: Travel research intensifiesBack-Up:
Google.comBack-Up:
Google.com
Back-Up:Google.com
Back-Up:Google.com
Click:AffordableTours.com
Click:Cruise.com
Click:VacationsToGo.com
Click:GalvestonCruises.com
Log on:Google.com
Search:“Galveston Cruises”
Refine Search:“Galveston Cruises Cheap”
In the short term…Engage at every touch pointgg
Back-Up:Google.com
Back-Up:Back-Up:
Click:CruiseMagic.com
Click:eCruises.com
Click:Travelocity.com
Click:Click:
p
Search:“Vacation Spots”
Refine Search:
Direct Type:Google.com
Engage at every touch point. p
Google.comp
Google.com
Back-Up:Google.com
About.comClick:
DiscountThemeParkVacations.com
Click:Orbitz.com
Click:CheapTickets.com
Refine Search:“Disney World Vacations”
Search:“Free Vacations”
Refine Search:“Cheap Vacations”
Direct Type:Google.com
Back-Up:Google.com
Back-Up:Google com
Back-Up:Google com
Back-Up:Google com
Click:Expedia.com
Click:CheapCaribbean com
Click:AllInclusiveOutlet com
Click:About com
Refine Search:“All Inclusive Vacations”
Refine Search:“All Inclusive Puerto Rico”
Back-Up:Google.comIn the long term…
Expect search to influence Google.com Google.com Google.comCheapCaribbean.com AllInclusiveOutlet.com About.com
Click:Expedia.com
Click:SaveOnVacationPackages.com
Refine Search:“Puerto Rico All Inclusive”
Direct Type:Orbitz.com
Di t T Di t T
Back-Up:Google.com
palmost all travel purchases.
Click:CopaMarina.com
2 Days Later:Booked on Expedia
Log OffSearch:“Puerto Rico Hotel”
Direct Type:Google.com
Direct Type:Expedia.com
2. Video: How we watch, then vs. now
vsvs
12 million 110 million
9.2x more reach
2. Video + Community + Creativity = Engagement
20+#2 1B+ #220hours of video uploaded each minute
#2site in global minutes
1Bvideo viewseach day
#2 global search engine
Entertainment Information Community
2. Video: Interactive storytelling
2. Video: Interactive storytelling
In the short term…Engage with consumers on theirEngage with consumers on their terms
In the long term…50% of all video advertising will % gbe addressable
3. Mobile: Too big to ignore
6.7B 4B
8X 4X 3.5X 3X 2.5X
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting 2009
3. Mobile: Relevance increasingly means mobile
3. Mobile: Get it all on the go
3. Mobile: Get it all on the go
In the short term…Test your user experienceTest your user experience.
In the long term…30% of online bookings will % gcome from mobile.
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4. Cloud computing: then and now4. Cloud Computing: Then and now
Google’s big bets
Search & ads Video
MobilityCloud computing
