opening address greg bourne ceo wwf-australia and chair cerf reference panel

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Opening Address

Greg Bourne

CEO WWF-Australia and

Chair CERF Reference Panel

The Resilience Challenge

Playing the World Cup!Greg Bourne CEO WWF-Australia

2

Agenda

• The State of the World and Overshoot

• Continually missing thresholds

• Politics, climate change and courting thresholds

• Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools

• The Choice

3

Drivers of biodiversity loss growing in intensity

•Most direct drivers of degradation in ecosystem services remain constant or are growing in intensity in most ecosystems

4

Overshoot into ecological debt

WWF Living Planet Report 2008

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Overshoot and collapse?

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How resilient are we?

1990 2100

“Smooth landing”

One scenario:

The Carrying Capacityof the Planet

The EcologicalFootprint of Humanity

J.Randers/Futures 40 (2008) 853-864

The Carrying Capacity

of the Planet

The EcologicalFootprint of Humanity

1990 2100

“Overshoot and collapse”

A more likely scenario:

Fig.4. Overshoot and collapse – in principle

Overshoot

Collapse

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Policy relevant “Tipping Elements” in the Earth’s Climate System

In and out of ice ages – last couple of millions of years

oscillating every 70,000 years or so!

Cold

Warm

Hot

Tipping elements and thresholds!

Cold

Warm

Hot

Loss of each “tipping element”

increases the risk of passing thresholds


Cold

Warm

Hot

At some point we trigger runaway global warming

Overshoot and collapse to a new

stable state?


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Agenda





• The Choice

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Canada and CodS

TO

CK

S

TIME

ST

OC

KS

Probabilistic error bar

Discontinuity

1. External Warnings

2. Expert Warnings

3. Expert Consensus

4. Rejection due to cost

5. Cod Collapse

Mid 1980s

eg inshore fishermen

1986

Keats Report

1990

Harris Report

1990-91

Ministry (DFO)

1992

Nothing left to catch

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North Sea and CodS

TO

CK

S

TIME

ST

OC

KS


Discontinuity


2. Expert Warnings

3. Expert Consensus


5. Cod Collapse

by 1990s

environment groups

1993-6

Shephard, Cook

Report

2000

ICES assessment

2001

EU Council of Ministers

200?

Nothing left to catch

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Arctic Ice Cover

TIME

AR

EA


Discontinuity



by 1980s

Scientists NGOs

2. Expert Warnings

1990

IPCC 1St Assesment

Report

3. Expert Consensus

2007

IPCC 4AR

5.Total ice sheet loss?

20??

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World GDP and Traded Resource Needs


VO

LU

ME

AN

D P

RIC

E


Discontinuity


by 1970s

Limits to Growth

2. Expert Warnings

2007-8

Stern Garnaut et

al?

2008-10

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Agenda





• The Choice

19

Unravelling trends, predicting discontinuitiesIS

SU

E

TIME


Discontinuity

Detracting event

Reinforcing events

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Climate Change: Public awareness and concernIM

PO

RT

AN

CE

O

F

CL

IMA

TE

CH

AN

GE

TIME

Erosion of importance

Heightened awareness

Heightened public concern

Health

Law and order

Education

Jobs

BushfiresDrought

Copenhagen + Sceptics

HIGH

LOW

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Climate changeIS

SU

E

TIME

What are the best offensive interventions?

What are the best defensive interventions

?

Discontinuities, what type, impact,

magnitude and probability?

It is unacceptable to wait until you know for sure!

“All science is always provisional” (Karl Popper)

The probabilities are now too high to ignore.

Politicians may be about to act!

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Political action lags societal concernP

RO

PE

NS

ITY

TO

EN

AC

T

HIGH

LOW

TIME

Law and regulation enacted

Heightened confidence

Leave well alone

At the stroke of a

pen!

A large risk to business is when politicians make up their minds and then act!

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Propensity to really act on Climate Change

Progressive Conservative

Howard Government

High Low

Nat

Lab

Grn

Lib

Lab

Here or Here???

Rudd GovernmentNatGrn

Lib

What next?

Nat

Lab

Grn

Lib Con

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Not to decide to win ..is to decide to lose!

BAU defaults to societal,

economic and environmental breakdown. A

severe procrastination

penalty

But with Runaway Climate Change

Societal, economic and environmental

breakdown

At least -20% GDP

loss

New Sustainability Paradigm

-1 to 2% GDP loss

But possibly a

gain in world GDP

Keep on as Business As Usual

(BAU)

Work for Global Climate Treaty to stay below a 2oC

rise

Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to

“ACHIEVE ADVANTAGE” in a breakdown world

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Not to decide to win ..is to decide to lose!

BAU is procrastination.

If copied around the

world it quickly defaults to societal,

economic and environmental

breakdown

But with Runaway Climate Change

Overshoot and Collapse

A Sustainable Australia in a Sustainable

World

Keep on as Business As Usual

(BAU)

Work for real reductions

25% by 2020 &

a Global Deal

Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to “Achieve Advantage

for Australia” in a breakdown world

A Transformed, Productive and

Adapted Australia

An Impoverished, Environmentally

Unproductive Continent

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Agenda

• The State of the World and overshoots




• The Choice

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Procrastination?

Data sufficient to avoid major

errors

Data more than enough to make a

defendable decision!

Procrastination?

Decision Window

Learning Period

Time doing research and positioning for decisions

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“Good Enough” tools

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“Good Enough” tools

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1. Elements can be identified which have the potential to tip. (You can see other stable states and possible thresholds.)

2. Decisions taken within a “Political Time Horizon” can determine what happens.

(There is still time to have an effect.)

3. The time to observe change plus the time to trigger it lie within an “Ethical Time Horizon”.

(Events too far away have little chance of influencing today’s decisions)

4. A significant number of people care about the consequences should an element tip.

(A significant change in human welfare could occur or part of the biosphere could be significantly disrupted.)

Avoiding the tip!

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Agenda

• The State of the World and Australia




• The Choice

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If we choose to lose!

“The phenomenon of overshoot and collapse – and the possibility of global collapse – is still relevant and worthy of study.

Global collapse triggered by ever growing emissions of greenhouse gases is still conceivable in the first half of the 21st century, because of the unfortunate combination of global decision delays and self-reinforcing feedback in the climate system.

Interestingly it may prove difficult to verify that global collapse did take place—even if it did, and even after the fact.

Global collapse – defined as a situation where more than one billion people lose one half of what they hold dear in less than 20 years – may well be hidden from the headlines and the history books.


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The 21st century is more likely to be described as a period of intense local strife, institutional breakdown, regionalization and general malaise. The root cause – humanity overstepping an environmental limit – may well be lost in the clutter of historical detail.

Global Collapse could remain fiction, even if it proved to be fact.”

If we choose to lose!


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If we choose to win!

We must understand and incorporate the concepts of resilience thinking into our political, economic and social structures.

We must start at the highest level of the system in which we might want to intervene.

On Climate Change the geopolitical system and the biophysical system are intimately inter-related and should be seen as one!

Decisions must be taken within the “political time horizon”.

Enough people must care about a positive outcome in order for politicians to have the courage to take action!

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Opening Address

Greg Bourne

CEO WWF-Australia and

Chair CERF Reference Panel

The Resilience Challenge

Playing to win!Greg Bourne CEO WWF-Australia

opening address greg bourne ceo wwf-australia and chair cerf reference panel

Documents

climate changeissuetimewhat

coldwarmhottipping elements

thresholdstipping elements

agendathe state

expert warnings3

expert consensus4

earths climate systemin

world cup