onug keynote - voip has just begun
TRANSCRIPT
VoIP Has Just Begun
Andy RandallVP of Marketing, MetaSwitch
O C C A M N E T W O R K S U S E R C O N F E R E N C E , S E P T E M B E R 7 – 1 1 , 2 0 0 8
Broadband & VoIP Subscriber Growth
0
50
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
DSL
VoIP
Why Voice over IP?
More
Flexible
More
Flexible
More
Efficient
More
Efficient
++ ++More
Reliable
More
Reliable
More
Reliable
More
Reliable
Why Voice over IP?
More
Flexible
More
Flexible
More
Efficient
More
Efficient++
OpExOpEx
Revenue,Revenue,LoyaltyLoyalty
The First VoIP Wave: PC-to-PC
1995: Microsoft
introduces NetMeeting
10 million
Xbox Livesubscribers
Source: Microsoft, July 2008
The Second Wave: PC-to-PSTNThe Second Wave: PC-to-PSTN
$1.9billionlost to Skype
Source: iLocus, March 4, 2008
0.03%Proportion of Skype users who use it as
their primary home phone
Source: Yankee Group
The Third Wave: Over-the-TopThe Third Wave: Over-the-Top
May 19, 2005: “we require providers of interconnected VoIP
service to provide E911 services to all of their customers”
Vonage Net Subscriber Additions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
2,000
Source: Vonage SEC filings
The Fourth Wave: Managed VoIP
The Fourth Wave: Managed VoIP
10 millionTelco phone lines switched to cable
VoIP since the last Occam user’s conference
3.3Millio
nFTTH
households
3.3Millio
nFTTH
households
Source: FTTH Council of North America, July 2008
The Next Battleground
Source: Heavy Reading, Cable vs. Telcos, July 2008
“We have a market opportunity that rivals the size of our core video business”- Bill Stemper
President, Comcast Business
4-year goals:
•20% market share
•1 million business customers
•$3 billion revenue
Source: Heavy Reading, Cable vs. Telcos, July 2008
4-year goals:
• 20% market share
• 1 million business customers
• $3 billion revenue
38%Growth last quarter
Source: Comcast Q2 2008 Earnings Call
Wave 5: Convergence
Convergence Applications
Users value
• Simplicity
• Seamless connectivity
Convergence: Phone + Web
Web 2.0 APIs Enable Voice 2.0 Services
Web 2.0 APIs Enable Voice 2.0 Services
The Browser is Becoming a Powerful Application Environment
Convergence: Phone + TV
Calling…Calling…
Convergence on the Phone Screen
Voicemail
Call Lists
Contacts
Conferencing
Text messaging
…
Convergence with Speech Recognition
Convergence
Managed VoIP
Over the top VoIP
PC-to-PSTN
PC-to-PC1995 2010
Five Waves of VoIP Services
Source: TeleGeography, September 2007
VoIP Services Have Only Just Begun
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40% EuropeU.S.
VoIP Switching Has Only Just Begun
MetaSwitchMetaSwitch
CopperCom
CopperCom
TaquaTaqua Lucent/Telica
Lucent/Telica
Tekelec/SanteraTekelec/Santera
SonusSonus NortelCS2000Nortel
CS2000 CiscoBTS
CiscoBTS
NortelCS1500Nortel
CS1500SiemensSURPASSSiemensSURPASS
803
Source: LERG, March 2008
AXEAXE EWSDEWSD
GTD-5GTD-5DCODCO
DMS-10DMS-10
DMS100/200
DMS100/200
NortelRemotesNortel
Remotes
5ESS5ESS
All softswitchesAll soft
switches
VoIP Switches Have Only Just Begun
Source: LERG, March 2008
IMS-based Application Platforms
Class 5Replacement
Class 5 Augmentation
VoIP Gateways
Class 4 Replacement / IP Tandem
VoIP in the Carrier Network Core
What does this mean for my network?
IP transport
IP call control
IP applicationserver platform
VoicemailFMC
Web portalVideo messaging
Conclusions: Like Broadband…
VoIP is here to stay
Conclusions: Like Broadband…
VoIP is here to stay
VoIP services are evolving
Conclusions: Like Broadband…
VoIP is here to stay
VoIP services are evolving
VoIP service delivery architectures will evolve
VoIP is here to stay
VoIP services are evolving
VoIP service delivery architectures will evolve
VoIPhas just
begun
Conclusions: Like Broadband…