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Facility Association Prior Accident Year Change in Estimated Ultimate Incurred AmountsRSP ‐ OntarioAmounts in $000s

Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Dec‐13 Mar‐14 Jun‐14 Sep‐14 Dec‐14AY2005 & Prior 7,769 9,892 (13,074) (327) (5,598) 5,664 (3,066) (863) (132) (1,948) (573) (1,953)

AY2006 6,719 3,114 1,311 4,917 (6,392) 3,933 (983) (746) (31) 150 (368) 596

AY2007 (181) 905 (1,991) 1,267 (6,695) 724 543 (217) (709) 30 1,296 30

AY2008 21,234 3,646 8,579 (9,437) ‐ (2,359) (2,524) (123) 1,504 (1,093) 539

AY2009 42,130 17,928 (12,325) 8,292 5,602 366 (687) 3,979 1,852 (1,678)

AY2010 1,137 (25,024) 15,924 (7,678) 1,999 (3,230) (2,157) (4,235) 2,159

AY2011 (24,648) (46,496) (37,253) (9,334) (8,301) (16,340) (3,320) (10,291)

AY2012 (73,981) (19,024) (5,457) (1,012) (8,691) (3,957) (10,532)

AY2013 (24,839) 251 (10,127) (5,119) (12,723)

Total 14,307 35,145 32,023 33,500 (90,120) (85,940) (89,057) (16,777) (13,975) (33,600) (15,517) (33,853)

Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Dec‐13 Mar‐14 Jun‐14 Sep‐14 Dec‐14AY2005 & Prior 3.4% 5.2% (8.6%) (0.3%) (8.3%) 12.1% (6.8%) (1.9%) (0.3%) (5.1%) (1.6%) (6.0%)

AY2006 7.6% 3.9% 1.9% 9.2% (15.5%) 15.9% (4.2%) (3.2%) (0.2%) 0.8% (2.1%) 3.6%

AY2007 (0.1%) 0.8% (2.4%) 1.9% (13.0%) 2.6% 2.7% (1.1%) (4.3%) 0.2% 10.8% 0.2%

AY2008 11.5% 2.6% 7.4% (9.5%) ‐ (5.7%) (6.1%) (0.3%) 4.5% (3.3%) 1.8%

AY2009 18.6% 9.7% (8.2%) 8.1% 7.6% 0.5% (1.0%) 6.5% 3.2% (3.0%)

AY2010 0.3% (9.4%) 8.4% (4.9%) 1.3% (2.2%) (1.6%) (3.5%) 2.0%

AY2011 (7.9%) (18.1%) (19.9%) (5.0%) (4.9%) (10.6%) (2.5%) (8.5%)

AY2012 (21.2%) (8.0%) (2.3%) (0.5%) (4.0%) (2.0%) (5.5%)

AY2013 (8.1%) 0.1% (3.8%) (2.1%) (5.5%)

Total 3.4% 5.8% 3.5% 4.2% (9.2%) (6.9%) (8.2%) (1.7%) (1.4%) (3.6%) (1.8%) (4.2%)

as at December 31, 2014

Change in Selected Ultimates from prior Sept 30th against current Earned Premium Change in Selected Ultimates from Prior Quarter End

Change in Selected Ultimates as % Beginning Unpaid Change from Prior Quarter End

1. Change in Selected Ultimates from prior Sept 30th is calculated as the change in the accident year selected nominal loss ratio against the accident year earned premium as at the current valuation date. Change in Selected Ultimates from Prior Quarter End is the change in selected ultimate nominal losses. Some variations due to changes in earned premium may be expected

2. Change in Selected Ultimates as % of Beginning Unpaid is calculated as the Change in Selected Ultimates from Prior valuation date (for September 30th valuations for the last accident year, this change is estimated as 75% of the full year change in selected ultimates) over the selected nominal Unpaid at the prior valuation date

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Exhibit B.1.1

Summary of Nominal Results

page 1 of 1Facility Association Valuation Results

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Total

RSP: Ontario

Life to Date

Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Indemnity & Allowed Claims

ExpenseCase Reserves

Recorded Indemnity & Allowed

Claims ExpenseSelected IBNR

Ultimate Indemnity & Allowed

Claims Expense

Unpaid Indemnity & Allowed

Claims Expense

$000s $000s % EP $000s % EP $000s % EP $000s % EP $000s % EP $000s % EP

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]

database database = [3]/[2] = [7]-[3] = [5]/[2] database = [7]/[2] database = [9]/[2] = [7]+[9] = [11]/[2] = [5]+[9] = [13]/[2]

2009 & prior 2,565,893 2,513,258 97.9% 94,268 3.7% 2,607,526 101.6% 40,888 1.6% 2,648,414 103.2% 135,156 5.3%

2010 284,366 356,056 125.2% 81,078 28.5% 437,134 153.7% 22,631 8.0% 459,765 161.7% 103,709 36.5%

2011 280,096 163,286 58.3% 74,795 26.7% 238,081 85.0% 27,833 9.9% 265,914 94.9% 102,628 36.6%

2012 301,965 138,237 45.8% 106,833 35.4% 245,070 81.2% 62,740 20.8% 307,810 101.9% 169,573 56.2%

2013 299,264 125,720 42.0% 94,670 31.6% 220,390 73.6% 114,477 38.3% 334,867 111.9% 209,147 69.9%

2014 271,871 81,953 30.1% 85,464 31.4% 167,417 61.6% 161,345 59.3% 328,762 120.9% 246,809 90.8%

TOTAL 4,003,455 3,378,510 84.4% 537,108 13.4% 3,915,618 97.8% 429,914 10.7% 4,345,532 108.5% 967,022 24.2%

2013 & prior 3,731,584 3,296,557 88.3% 451,644 12.1% 3,748,201 100.4% 268,569 7.2% 4,016,770 107.6% 720,213 19.3%

Activity During Quarter vs EP

Accident YearEarned

Premium (LTD)

Change in Paid Indemnity &

Allowed Claims ExpenseChange in Case Reserves

Change in Recorded Indemnity &

Allowed Claims ExpenseChange in Selected IBNR

Change in Ultimate Indemnity &

Allowed Claims Expense

Change in Unpaid Indemnity &



[15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]

database database =[17]/[16] database =[19]/[16] database =[21]/[16] database =[23]/[16] database =[25]/[16] database =[27]/[16]

2009 & prior 2,565,893 9,881 0.4% (12,372) (0.5%) (2,491) (0.1%) 28 - (2,463) (0.1%) (12,344) (0.5%)

2010 284,366 7,401 2.6% (3,736) (1.3%) 3,665 1.3% (1,506) (0.5%) 2,159 0.8% (5,242) (1.8%)

2011 280,096 7,762 2.8% (5,886) (2.1%) 1,876 0.7% (12,168) (4.3%) (10,292) (3.7%) (18,054) (6.4%)

2012 301,965 11,141 3.7% (5,119) (1.7%) 6,022 2.0% (16,554) (5.5%) (10,532) (3.5%) (21,673) (7.2%)

2013 299,264 9,415 3.1% (5,088) (1.7%) 4,327 1.4% (17,049) (5.7%) (12,722) (4.3%) (22,137) (7.4%)

TOTAL 3,731,584 45,600 1.2% (32,201) (0.9%) 13,399 0.4% (47,249) (1.3%) (33,850) (0.9%) (79,450) (2.1%)

Emergence During Quarter

Accident Year Beginning IBNRBeginning

Unpaid







$000s $000s $000s % Beg Unpaid $000s % Beg IBNR $000s % Beg Unpaid

[29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]

database database [17] =[32]/[31] [21] =[34]/[30] [25] =[36]/[31]

2009 & prior 40,860 147,500 9,881 6.7% (2,491) (6.1%) (2,463) (1.7%)

2010 24,137 108,951 7,401 6.8% 3,665 15.2% 2,159 2.0%

2011 40,001 120,682 7,762 6.4% 1,876 4.7% (10,292) (8.5%)

2012 79,294 191,246 11,141 5.8% 6,022 7.6% (10,532) (5.5%)

2013 131,526 231,284 9,415 4.1% 4,327 3.3% (12,722) (5.5%)

TOTAL 315,818 799,663 45,600 5.7% 13,399 4.2% (33,850) (4.2%)


File: 01a Summary RSP-ON 2014-Q4 v02.xlsx FA Actuarial Printed: 3/3/2015, 10:21 AM

Exhibit B.1.2

Loss Ratios over Time

page 1 of 1Facility Association Loss Ratios Over Time

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Total

RSP: Ontario

Sel Ult LR @ Dec 2014 Sel Ult LR @ Dec 2014

compared with prior compared with prior

Earned Paid Case Recorded Selected Ultimate Selected Selected Selected Selected Selected Sel Ult LR @ Sep 2014 Sel Ult LR @ Dec 2013

Accident Premium Claims Amt* Reserve Claims Amt* IBNR Claims Amt* Ultimate LR Ultimate LR Ultimate LR Ultimate LR Ultimate LR Claims Amt*

Year @ Dec 2014 @ Dec 2014 @ Dec 2014 @ Dec 2014 @ Dec 2014 @ Dec 2014 @ Dec 2014 @ Sep 2014 @ Jun 2014 @ Mar 2014 @ Dec 2013 Ultimate LR Claims Amt* Ultimate LR @ curr EP

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]

database database = [5]-[3] database database = [5]+[6] = [7]/[2] database database database database = [8]-[9] = [8]-[12] = [2]*[15]

AY1993 & Prior 92,972 104,927 85 105,012 - 105,012 - - - - - - - - -

1994 200,791 201,196 5,288 206,484 - 206,484 102.8% 102.8% 102.6% 102.5% 102.4% - 59 0.4% 803

1995 235,451 205,872 3,151 209,023 - 209,023 88.8% 88.8% 88.8% 89.3% 89.3% - (76) (0.5%) (1,177)

1996 197,412 158,213 3,186 161,399 - 161,399 81.8% 81.8% 82.1% 82.1% 81.8% - (1) - -

1997 152,922 111,056 160 111,216 96 111,312 72.8% 72.7% 72.7% 72.8% 72.8% 0.1% 107 - -

1998 103,106 83,774 830 84,604 192 84,796 82.2% 82.3% 82.3% 82.4% 82.4% (0.1%) (56) (0.2%) (206)

1999 68,831 79,092 1,023 80,115 292 80,407 116.8% 117.0% 116.8% 116.9% 117.0% (0.2%) (105) (0.2%) (138)

2000 69,659 84,929 16 84,945 368 85,313 122.5% 122.8% 122.8% 122.9% 123.0% (0.3%) (207) (0.5%) (348)

2001 80,047 99,871 1,028 100,899 669 101,568 126.9% 126.8% 126.8% 126.9% 127.0% 0.1% 95 (0.1%) (80)

2002 113,770 132,864 1,284 134,148 1,098 135,246 118.9% 119.2% 119.2% 119.3% 119.3% (0.3%) (317) (0.4%) (455)

2003 142,680 126,942 2,770 129,712 1,318 131,030 91.8% 92.1% 92.1% 92.1% 92.2% (0.3%) (359) (0.4%) (571)

2004 165,860 126,970 1,250 128,220 1,671 129,891 78.3% 78.9% 79.0% 79.1% 79.4% (0.6%) (959) (1.1%) (1,824)

2005 158,965 114,394 1,723 116,117 2,183 118,300 74.4% 74.5% 74.6% 74.9% 74.9% (0.1%) (133) (0.5%) (795)

2006 163,889 153,584 10,827 164,411 3,870 168,281 102.7% 102.3% 102.5% 102.4% 102.5% 0.4% 596 0.2% 328

2007 180,957 172,325 7,903 180,228 4,650 184,878 102.2% 102.1% 101.4% 101.4% 101.8% 0.1% 31 0.4% 724

2008 214,485 241,781 19,427 261,208 9,829 271,037 126.4% 126.1% 126.6% 125.9% 126.0% 0.3% 539 0.4% 858

2009 224,096 315,468 34,317 349,785 14,652 364,437 162.6% 163.4% 162.5% 160.8% 161.1% (0.8%) (1,677) 1.5% 3,361

2010 284,366 356,056 81,078 437,134 22,631 459,765 161.7% 160.9% 162.4% 163.2% 164.3% 0.8% 2,159 (2.6%) (7,394)

2011 280,096 163,286 74,795 238,081 27,833 265,914 94.9% 98.6% 99.8% 105.6% 108.6% (3.7%) (10,292) (13.7%) (38,373)

2012 301,965 138,237 106,833 245,070 62,740 307,810 101.9% 105.4% 106.7% 109.6% 109.9% (3.5%) (10,532) (8.0%) (24,157)

2013 299,264 125,720 94,670 220,390 114,477 334,867 111.9% 116.1% 117.8% 121.1% 120.6% (4.2%) (12,722) (8.7%) (26,036)

2014 271,871 81,953 85,464 167,417 161,345 328,762 120.9% 120.6% 117.7% 130.0% - - - **

TOTAL 4,003,455 3,378,510 537,108 3,915,618 429,914 4,345,532 108.5% 109.2% 109.3% 110.2% 110.2% (33,850) (95,480)

2013 & prior 3,731,584 3,296,557 451,644 3,748,201 268,569 4,016,770 107.6% 108.5% 109.0% 109.9% 110.2% (33,850) (95,480)

* Claims Amt = indemnity & allowed claims expense (where latter is allowed expense over and above the claims expense included in the expense allowance for member companies)

** For the current accident year (AY2014), the Selected Ultimate LR @ Mar 2014 [11] was presented as a full year loss ratio which was the process followed in previous valuations. We now present the Ultimate LR

for the current accident year as a partial loss ratio and this is the basis for the Selected Ultimate LR @ June 2014 and September 2014 in column [10] and [9]



Exhibit B.1.3.1

Comparison of Government Line Ultimates

page 1 of 1Facility Association

Comparison of Selected Ultimate Incurred Claims Amounts by Coverage


Amounts in: $1,000s

RSP: Ontario

Prior Analysis (Sep 2014) Current Analysis (Dec 2014) Change from Prior Analysis

Accident YearThird Party

Liability

Accident

BenefitsOther Coverages Total

Third Party

Liability

Accident


Third Party

Liability

Accident


Prior to 1994 34,272 39,071 31,668 105,012 34,272 39,071 31,668 105,012 - - - -

1995 46,582 107,166 55,351 209,099 46,582 107,090 55,351 209,023 - (76) - (76)

1996 42,643 74,626 44,131 161,400 42,636 74,632 44,131 161,399 (7) 6 - (1)

1997 39,483 38,645 33,077 111,205 39,482 38,752 33,077 111,312 (1) 107 - 107

1998 32,297 29,155 23,400 84,852 32,260 29,139 23,398 84,796 (37) (16) (2) (56)

1999 31,302 31,110 18,101 80,512 31,302 31,005 18,100 80,407 - (105) (1) (105)

2000 31,586 32,436 21,498 85,520 31,586 32,229 21,498 85,313 - (207) - (207)

2001 36,269 42,899 22,306 101,473 36,298 42,965 22,306 101,568 29 66 - 95

2002 50,409 54,979 30,176 135,563 50,407 54,664 30,176 135,246 (2) (315) - (317)

2003 47,617 53,047 30,725 131,389 47,593 52,711 30,726 131,030 (24) (336) 1 (359)

2004 51,566 53,542 25,742 130,850 51,522 52,659 25,710 129,891 (44) (883) (32) (959)

2005 44,124 48,034 26,276 118,433 43,785 48,287 26,228 118,300 (339) 253 (48) (133)

2006 63,286 76,250 28,149 167,685 63,568 76,617 28,096 168,281 282 367 (53) 596

2007 69,343 79,863 35,642 184,847 68,576 80,708 35,594 184,878 (767) 845 (48) 31

2008 82,142 145,798 42,557 270,498 81,437 147,055 42,546 271,037 (705) 1,257 (11) 539

2009 101,796 223,555 40,764 366,114 98,207 225,126 41,103 364,437 (3,589) 1,571 339 (1,677)

2010 142,376 269,114 46,116 457,606 136,822 276,845 46,097 459,765 (5,554) 7,731 (19) 2,159

2011 108,438 124,759 43,008 276,206 102,303 120,331 43,281 265,914 (6,135) (4,428) 273 (10,292)

2012 135,953 139,510 42,879 318,342 130,623 134,387 42,800 307,810 (5,330) (5,123) (79) (10,532)

2013 153,137 146,490 47,963 347,589 146,273 140,704 47,890 334,867 (6,864) (5,786) (73) (12,722)

2014 110,454 98,441 35,715 244,610 149,144 129,167 50,451 328,762 38,690 30,726 14,736 84,152

Total 1,504,086 2,008,994 782,153 4,295,230 1,513,689 2,034,708 797,136 4,345,532 9,603 25,714 14,983 50,302

2013 & Prior 1,393,632 1,910,553 746,438 4,050,620 1,364,545 1,905,541 746,685 4,016,770 (29,087) (5,012) 247 (33,850)

File: 01 Ultimate Selections RSP-ON 2014 Q4 - v03c (elrf models).xlsm FA Actuarial Printed: 3/3/2015, 2:08 PM

Exhibit B.1.3.2

Selected Losses by Method


Estimated and Selected Ultimate Losses by Method


Coverage: Total

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Actual Experience Ultimate Loss Estimates

Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

ELR

Method

(prior

trend) Ult

LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 92,972 104,927 85 105,012 105,012 105,012 105,012 105,012

1994 200,791 201,196 5,288 206,484 206,484 206,484 206,484 102.8% 102.8% 102.8% 206,484 102.8%

1995 235,451 205,872 3,151 209,023 209,023 209,023 209,023 88.8% 88.8% 88.8% 209,023 88.8%

1996 197,412 158,213 3,186 161,399 161,399 161,399 161,399 81.8% 81.8% 81.8% 161,399 81.8%

1997 152,922 111,056 160 111,216 111,312 111,312 111,216 72.8% 72.8% 72.7% 111,312 72.8%

1998 103,106 83,774 830 84,604 84,796 84,796 84,604 82.2% 82.2% 82.1% 84,796 82.2%

1999 68,831 79,092 1,023 80,115 80,407 80,407 80,115 116.8% 116.8% 116.4% 80,407 116.8%

2000 69,659 84,929 16 84,945 85,314 85,314 84,945 122.5% 122.5% 121.9% 85,313 122.5%

2001 80,047 99,871 1,028 100,899 101,568 101,568 100,899 126.9% 126.9% 126.1% 101,568 126.9%

2002 113,770 132,864 1,284 134,148 135,247 135,247 134,148 118.9% 118.9% 117.9% 135,246 118.9%

2003 142,680 126,942 2,770 129,712 131,031 131,031 129,712 91.8% 91.8% 90.9% 131,030 91.8%

2004 165,860 126,970 1,251 128,220 129,891 129,891 128,220 78.3% 78.3% 77.3% 129,891 78.3%

2005 158,965 114,394 1,723 116,117 118,299 118,299 116,117 74.4% 74.4% 73.0% 118,300 74.4%

2006 163,889 153,584 10,827 164,411 168,281 168,281 164,411 102.7% 102.7% 100.3% 168,281 102.7%

2007 180,957 172,325 7,903 180,228 184,877 184,877 180,228 102.2% 102.2% 99.6% 184,878 102.2%

2008 214,485 241,781 19,427 261,208 271,038 271,038 261,208 126.4% 126.4% 121.8% 271,037 126.4%

2009 224,096 315,468 34,316 349,785 364,478 364,478 349,785 162.6% 162.6% 156.1% 364,437 162.6%

2010 284,366 356,056 81,078 437,134 353,803 459,704 7.3% 92.7% 452,022 455,232 437,134 363,650 124.4% 161.7% 159.0% 160.1% 153.7% 127.9% 459,765 161.7%

2011 280,096 163,286 74,796 238,081 297,554 255,870 8.8% 91.2% 259,552 269,925 238,081 298,440 106.2% 91.4% 92.7% 96.4% 85.0% 106.5% 265,914 94.9%

2012 301,965 138,237 106,833 245,070 326,478 291,565 17.1% 82.9% 297,550 311,096 245,070 329,002 108.1% 96.6% 98.5% 103.0% 81.2% 109.0% 307,810 101.9%

2013 299,264 125,720 94,669 220,390 337,591 311,941 38.0% 62.0% 321,699 332,249 220,390 342,248 112.8% 104.2% 107.5% 111.0% 73.6% 114.4% 334,867 111.9%

2014 271,871 81,953 85,465 167,417 322,008 292,763 72.5% 27.5% 313,969 149,214 167,417 321,917 328,762 120.9%

Total 4,003,454 3,378,510 537,108 3,915,618 1,637,435 4,260,298 1,644,792 4,166,170 3,915,618 1,655,256 4,345,532

*Earned Premium prior to data modernization (2009 / 2) was not allocated on a coverage level

**For 'off-half' valuation quarters (Mar and Sep), the current accident year (CAY) by method Ultimate Loss estimates ([5] to [22]) are aggregated from a coverage level


Exhibit B.1.3.3

Comparison of IBNR by Methods


Comparison of Estimated Ultimate Losses by Method


Coverage: Total

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Current Valuation Results (as at Dec 2014) Prior Valuation Results (as at Sep 2014) Change from Prior Valuation

Accident Year ELR Method*Link Ratio

MethodBF Method*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2Selected IBNR Method**

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

ELR Method*LR Ratio

MethodBF Method* Selected IBNR Method**

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 105,012 105,012 105,012 - 105,012 105,012 - 105,012 - - -

1994 206,484 206,484 206,484 N/A - 206,484 102.8% 206,425 N/A - 206,425 102.8% 60 - 60 -

1995 209,023 209,023 209,023 N/A - 209,023 88.8% 209,099 N/A - 209,099 88.8% (77) - (77) -

1996 161,399 161,399 161,399 N/A - 161,399 81.8% 161,400 N/A - 161,400 81.8% (1) - (1) -

1997 111,312 111,312 111,216 N/A 96 111,312 72.8% 111,205 N/A 149 111,205 72.7% 159 (53) 106 0.1%

1998 84,796 84,796 84,604 N/A 192 84,796 82.2% 84,852 N/A 244 84,852 82.3% (4) (52) (56) (0.1%)

1999 80,407 80,407 80,115 N/A 292 80,407 116.8% 80,513 N/A 391 80,512 117.0% (6) (99) (105) (0.2%)

2000 85,314 85,314 84,945 N/A 368 85,313 122.5% 85,521 N/A 507 85,520 122.8% (68) (139) (207) (0.3%)

2001 101,568 101,568 100,899 N/A 669 101,568 126.9% 101,474 N/A 909 101,473 126.8% 335 (240) 95 0.1%

2002 135,247 135,247 134,148 N/A 1,098 135,246 118.9% 135,563 N/A 1,428 135,563 119.2% 13 (330) (317) (0.3%)

2003 131,031 131,031 129,712 N/A 1,318 131,030 91.8% 131,390 N/A 1,669 131,389 92.1% (9) (351) (360) (0.3%)

2004 129,891 129,891 128,220 N/A 1,671 129,891 78.3% 130,850 N/A 2,107 130,850 78.9% (523) (436) (959) (0.6%)

2005 118,299 118,299 116,117 N/A 2,183 118,300 74.4% 118,434 N/A 2,143 118,433 74.5% (173) 40 (133) (0.1%)

2006 168,281 168,281 164,411 N/A 3,870 168,281 102.7% 167,685 N/A 3,746 167,685 102.3% 472 124 596 0.4%

2007 184,877 184,877 180,228 N/A 4,650 184,878 102.2% 184,848 N/A 4,427 184,847 102.2% (193) 223 30 -

2008 271,038 271,038 261,208 N/A 9,829 271,037 126.4% 270,498 N/A 8,834 270,498 126.1% (456) 995 539 0.3%

2009 364,478 364,478 349,785 N/A 14,652 364,437 162.6% 365,976 N/A 14,306 366,114 163.4% (2,024) 346 (1,678) (0.8%)

2010 353,803 459,704 452,022 455,232 437,134 363,650 N/A 22,631 459,765 161.7% 374,186 459,152 453,480 N/A 24,137 457,606 160.9% 3,665 (1,506) 2,159 0.8%

2011 297,554 255,870 259,552 269,925 238,081 298,440 N/A 27,833 265,914 94.9% 304,281 261,364 266,449 N/A 40,001 276,206 98.6% 1,877 (12,168) (10,291) (3.7%)

2012 326,478 291,565 297,550 311,096 245,070 329,002 N/A 62,740 307,810 101.9% 335,729 301,715 306,935 N/A 79,294 318,342 105.4% 6,022 (16,554) (10,532) (3.5%)

2013 337,591 311,941 321,699 332,249 220,390 342,248 N/A 114,477 334,867 111.9% 348,501 321,729 331,743 N/A 131,526 347,589 116.1% 4,326 (17,049) (12,723) (4.2%)

2014 322,008 292,763 313,969 149,214 167,417 321,917 N/A 161,345 328,762 120.9% 327,538 255,006 317,051 N/A 131,900 244,610 120.6% 54,707 29,445 84,152 0.3%

Total 1,637,435 4,260,298 1,644,792 4,166,170 3,915,618 1,655,256 429,914 4,345,532 1,690,234 4,249,709 1,675,658 447,718 4,295,233 68,102 (17,804) 50,298

2013 & Prior 1,315,427 3,967,535 1,330,823 4,016,956 3,748,201 1,333,339 268,569 4,016,770 1,362,696 3,994,703 1,358,607 315,818 4,050,623 13,395 (47,249) (33,854)


**IBNR selected on a coverage level and aggregated to a Government Line (or Total) level


Exhibit B.1.4.1

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1

Facility Association

a priori LR model

for valuation: Dec 31, 2014

RSP Ontario

CURRENT PRIOR CHANGE

Accident

Period

Third Party

Liability

Accident

Benefits

Other

CoveragesTotal

Third Party

Liability

Accident

Benefits

Other

CoveragesTotal

Third Party

Liability

Accident

Benefits

Other

CoveragesTotal

2009 / 2 120.0% 234.0% 91.0% 156.0% 116.0% 271.0% 89.0% 168.0% 4.0% (37.0%) 2.0% (12.0%)

2010 / 1 105.0% 199.0% 87.0% 138.0% 102.0% 235.0% 86.0% 151.0% 3.0% (36.0%) 1.0% (13.0%)

2010 / 2 116.0% 115.0% 93.0% 111.0% 109.0% 129.0% 94.0% 115.0% 7.0% (14.0%) (1.0%) (4.0%)

2011 / 1 101.0% 103.0% 90.0% 100.0% 96.0% 114.0% 90.0% 102.0% 5.0% (11.0%) - (2.0%)

2011 / 2 112.0% 117.0% 100.0% 112.0% 109.0% 127.0% 98.0% 115.0% 3.0% (10.0%) 2.0% (3.0%)

2012 / 1 101.0% 103.0% 96.0% 101.0% 99.0% 113.0% 94.0% 104.0% 2.0% (10.0%) 2.0% (3.0%)

2012 / 2 116.0% 117.0% 105.0% 115.0% 117.0% 125.0% 101.0% 118.0% (1.0%) (8.0%) 4.0% (3.0%)

2013 / 1 105.0% 107.0% 100.0% 105.0% 107.0% 114.0% 96.0% 108.0% (2.0%) (7.0%) 4.0% (3.0%)

2013 / 2 120.0% 127.0% 107.0% 121.0% 125.0% 133.0% 101.0% 125.0% (5.0%) (6.0%) 6.0% (4.0%)

2014 / 1 108.0% 117.0% 101.0% 110.0% 109.0% 122.0% 95.0% 112.0% (1.0%) (5.0%) 6.0% (2.0%)

2014 / 2 126.0% 135.0% 108.0% 127.0% 129.0% 137.0% 101.0% 128.0% (3.0%) (2.0%) 7.0% (1.0%)

2015 / 1 114.0% 121.0% 103.0% 115.0% 113.0% 124.0% 96.0% 115.0% 1.0% (3.0%) 7.0% -

2015 / 2 133.0% 140.0% 111.0% 132.0% 135.0% 139.0% 102.0% 132.0% (2.0%) 1.0% 9.0% -

2016 / 1 120.0% 126.0% 106.0% 120.0% 118.0% 126.0% 96.0% 118.0% 2.0% - 10.0% 2.0%

2016 / 2 141.0% 145.0% 114.0% 138.0% 141.0% 141.0% 103.0% 135.0% - 4.0% 11.0% 3.0%

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Third Party Liability

Paid as % EP Case as % EP IBNR as % EPFavourable Unpaid as % EP Unfavourable Unpaid as % EP Prior Selected a priori LRsCurrent Selected a priori LRs

-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Accident Benefits


-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Other Coverages


-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Total


File: 01 RSP ON a priori LRs 2014 Q4 v02d.xlsx FA Actuarial Printed: 3/3/2015, 9:59 AM

Exhibit B.1.4.2

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Total

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 2 111.0% 102.0% 9.0%

2004 / 1 91.0% 92.0% (1.0%)

2004 / 2 103.0% 106.0% (3.0%)

2005 / 1 98.0% 101.0% (3.0%)

2005 / 2 117.0% 120.0% (3.0%)

2006 / 1 110.0% 114.0% (4.0%)

2006 / 2 128.0% 133.0% (5.0%)

2007 / 1 119.0% 124.0% (5.0%)

2007 / 2 139.0% 146.0% (7.0%)

2008 / 1 131.0% 139.0% (8.0%)

2008 / 2 150.0% 160.0% (10.0%)

2009 / 1 137.0% 147.0% (10.0%)

2009 / 2 156.0% 168.0% (12.0%)

2010 / 1 138.0% 151.0% (13.0%)

2010 / 2 111.0% 115.0% (4.0%)

2011 / 1 100.0% 102.0% (2.0%)

2011 / 2 112.0% 115.0% (3.0%) Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2012 / 1 101.0% 104.0% (3.0%)

2012 / 2 115.0% 118.0% (3.0%)

2013 / 1 105.0% 108.0% (3.0%)

2013 / 2 121.0% 125.0% (4.0%)

2014 / 1 110.0% 112.0% (2.0%)

2014 / 2 127.0% 128.0% (1.0%)

2015 / 1 115.0% 115.0% -

2015 / 2 132.0% 132.0% -

2016 / 1 120.0% 118.0% 2.0%

2016 / 2 138.0% 135.0% 3.0%

Current AHY: 2014 / 2

Sep 30, 2014 valuation result Adjust EP to 2014 / 2 rate level Adjust Ultimate Claims Amount to 2014 / 2 clms level

Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio

Rate ChangeDrift (RG,

class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]

val data val data val data val data =[4]/[1]industry avg

EP relativityassumption assumption

=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend

analysisassumption assumption

=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 2 75,745 60,937 1,016 62,633 82.7% 1.1892 1.0000 1.0000 90,073 1.3257 1.0000 1.0000 83,031 92.2% -

2004 / 1 81,832 55,976 1,312 58,113 71.0% 1.1168 1.0000 1.0000 91,389 1.5389 1.0000 1.0000 89,431 97.9% -

2004 / 2 84,027 70,731 724 72,738 86.6% 1.1085 1.0000 1.0000 93,144 1.3467 1.0000 1.0000 97,957 105.2% -

2005 / 1 81,302 52,451 375 53,706 66.1% 1.1359 1.0000 1.0000 92,352 1.4307 1.0000 1.0000 76,835 83.2% -

2005 / 2 77,661 61,917 1,547 64,727 83.3% 1.1674 1.0000 1.0000 90,665 1.2267 1.0000 1.0000 79,403 87.6% -

2006 / 1 77,001 59,262 2,490 62,987 81.8% 1.1857 1.0000 1.0000 91,296 1.3559 1.0000 1.0000 85,403 93.5% -

2006 / 2 86,888 91,807 10,380 104,698 120.5% 1.1949 1.0000 1.0000 103,822 1.1655 1.0000 1.0000 122,023 117.5% -

2007 / 1 89,401 80,486 3,641 86,042 96.2% 1.2017 1.0000 1.0000 107,435 1.2586 1.0000 1.0000 108,289 100.8% -

2007 / 2 91,559 91,470 4,824 98,805 107.9% 1.2092 1.0000 1.0000 110,715 1.0987 1.0000 1.0000 108,556 98.0% -

2008 / 1 106,182 115,074 8,369 127,424 120.0% 1.2129 1.0000 1.0000 128,785 1.1417 1.0000 1.0000 145,478 113.0% -

2008 / 2 108,301 125,480 12,741 143,074 132.1% 1.1990 1.0000 1.0000 129,857 0.9774 1.0000 1.0000 139,847 107.7% 3.0%

2009 / 1 108,298 139,104 15,509 160,542 148.2% 1.1765 1.0000 1.0000 127,415 1.0431 1.0000 1.0000 167,462 131.4% 2.8%

2009 / 2 115,797 171,543 25,653 205,572 177.5% 1.1457 1.0000 1.0000 132,666 0.8923 1.0000 1.0000 183,438 138.3% 5.9%

2010 / 1 133,264 203,762 36,230 251,739 188.9% 1.1003 1.0000 1.0000 146,627 0.9560 1.0000 1.0000 240,670 164.1% 5.7%

2010 / 2 151,103 144,893 48,583 205,868 136.2% 1.0534 1.0000 1.0000 159,170 1.1780 1.0000 1.0000 242,510 152.4% 5.5%

2011 / 1 139,285 81,725 38,189 132,299 95.0% 1.0285 1.0000 1.0000 143,253 1.2853 1.0000 1.0000 170,045 118.7% 11.2%

2011 / 2 140,811 73,799 42,491 143,906 102.2% 1.0122 1.0000 1.0000 142,533 1.1334 1.0000 1.0000 163,102 114.4% 11.2%

2012 / 1 149,815 62,255 52,057 145,493 97.1% 0.9973 1.0000 1.0000 149,405 1.2475 1.0000 1.0000 181,506 121.5% 11.3%

2012 / 2 152,150 64,841 59,895 172,849 113.6% 0.9934 1.0000 1.0000 151,151 1.0884 1.0000 1.0000 188,132 124.5% 11.3%

2013 / 1 150,942 57,529 43,524 158,453 105.0% 0.9934 1.0000 1.0000 149,943 1.1940 1.0000 1.0000 189,195 126.2% 11.3%

2013 / 2 148,322 58,776 56,235 189,136 127.5% 0.9998 1.0000 1.0000 148,298 1.0433 1.0000 1.0000 197,331 133.1% 11.2%

2014 / 1 135,405 43,906 38,695 157,855 116.6% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 135,405 1.1417 1.0000 1.0000 180,227 133.1% 11.2%

Total 2,485,091 1,967,724 504,482 2,858,661 115.0% 1.0927 1.0000 1.0000 2,715,399 1.1333 1.0000 1.0000 3,239,871 119.3% 101.6%

*indemnity & allowed claims expense 2013-2 AIX on industry 2014-1 AIX data weighted average: 130.8%

from FA Valuation Summary derived from 2014 / 2 on-levels selected: 126.0% 128.0% current prior

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

180.0%

200.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Total

Paid as % EP Case as % EP IBNR as % EP Favourable Unpaid as % EP

Unfavourable Unpaid as % EP Prior Selected a priori LRs Current Selected a priori LRs

(60.0%)

(40.0%)

(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

Selected Model Residuals -1 Std Dev +1 Std Dev -2 Std Dev +2 Std Dev


Exhibit B.1.5

Incurred Ultimate Comparison Exhibits

page 1 of 1Facility Association Comparison of Incurred Loss Development Estimates (Indemnity & Allowed Claims Expenses)

Amounts in: $1,000s

RSP Ontario

Valuation as at December 31, 2014

Total

Accident Half

YearBodily Injury Property Damage

Direct Comp

Property Damage

Total sum([1] to

[3])Medical Expense Disability Income Death Benefits Funeral Expense Supplementary

Uninsured

Automobile

Total sum([5] to

[10])

Underinsured

MotoristCollision Comprehensive Specified Perils All Perils

Total sum([12] to

[16])

Total sum([4] +

[11] + [17])

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18]

Prior to 2009 457,894 51,147 241,275 750,316 578,674 187,546 7,946 1,836 2,999 229,118 1,008,119 7,909 265,174 180,516 306 71,612 525,517 2,283,952

2009 / 1 30,192 689 12,918 43,799 80,079 12,977 139 37 ‐ 4,233 97,465 432 9,709 4,672 38 4,768 19,619 160,883

2009 / 2 39,423 792 14,234 54,449 108,245 15,417 260 73 ‐ 3,654 127,649 405 10,637 4,983 24 5,435 21,484 203,582

2010 / 1 49,676 1,033 15,931 66,640 144,636 18,396 145 38 ‐ 3,251 166,466 860 10,924 4,364 14 5,696 21,858 254,964

2010 / 2 50,988 1,077 18,058 70,123 88,706 17,618 82 43 ‐ 3,919 110,368 645 12,960 4,985 26 5,622 24,238 204,729

2011 / 1 29,660 778 14,473 44,911 45,248 12,436 55 15 ‐ 2,657 60,411 863 11,212 4,576 17 4,697 21,365 126,687

2011 / 2 39,353 808 14,784 54,945 37,654 12,907 170 47 ‐ 1,533 52,311 1,037 11,847 4,081 12 4,947 21,924 129,180

2012 / 1 42,841 894 13,903 57,638 38,676 14,025 68 36 ‐ 2,658 55,463 1,217 10,826 3,950 1 4,225 20,219 133,320

2012 / 2 49,310 818 16,100 66,228 51,030 15,596 347 82 ‐ 2,397 69,452 454 11,908 4,786 ‐ 5,412 22,560 158,240

2013 / 1 45,537 787 15,574 61,898 42,325 13,457 288 82 ‐ 1,925 58,077 323 12,507 3,868 ‐ 4,616 21,314 141,289

2013 / 2 60,764 1,040 18,382 80,186 45,737 14,981 214 68 ‐ 3,037 64,037 976 13,484 5,817 6 6,135 26,418 170,641

2014 / 1 38,275 880 15,770 54,925 39,304 13,008 36 20 ‐ 2,024 54,392 569 13,382 3,960 3 6,188 24,102 133,419

2014 / 2 60,171 634 16,862 77,667 40,102 13,911 83 51 11 1,420 55,578 368 14,289 5,089 14 6,328 26,088 159,333

Total 994,084 61,377 428,264 1,483,725 1,340,416 362,275 9,833 2,428 3,010 261,826 1,979,788 16,058 408,859 235,647 461 135,681 796,706 4,260,219

2014 / 1 &

prior933,913 60,743 411,402 1,406,058 1,300,314 348,364 9,750 2,377 2,999 260,406 1,924,210 15,690 394,570 230,558 447 129,353 770,618 4,100,886

Valuation as at September 30, 2014

Total

Accident Half


Direct Comp

Property Damage

Total sum([19] to


Uninsured

Automobile

Total sum([23] to

[28])

Underinsured


Total sum([30] to

[34])

Total sum([22] +

[29] + [35])

[19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36]

Prior to 2009 459,266 51,162 241,504 751,932 577,241 187,804 7,946 1,836 2,999 229,296 1,007,122 7,923 265,305 180,546 306 71,630 525,710 2,284,764

2009 / 1 31,365 691 12,921 44,977 78,662 12,886 139 37 ‐ 4,416 96,140 239 9,712 4,672 38 4,770 19,431 160,548

2009 / 2 41,455 792 14,435 56,682 107,679 15,560 260 73 ‐ 3,855 127,427 244 10,647 4,983 24 5,435 21,333 205,442

2010 / 1 52,615 1,033 15,927 69,575 139,248 18,267 145 38 ‐ 3,408 161,106 844 10,924 4,364 14 5,696 21,842 252,523

2010 / 2 55,206 1,077 18,064 74,347 86,611 17,330 82 38 ‐ 3,946 108,007 683 12,956 4,985 26 5,623 24,273 206,627

2011 / 1 32,481 770 14,487 47,738 45,657 12,985 55 15 ‐ 2,360 61,072 818 11,224 4,499 17 4,697 21,255 130,065

2011 / 2 42,788 790 14,781 58,359 36,372 12,961 170 47 ‐ 1,624 51,174 917 11,833 4,074 12 4,924 21,760 131,293

2012 / 1 48,614 894 13,919 63,427 36,744 14,273 68 36 ‐ 3,006 54,127 1,331 10,844 3,953 1 4,213 20,342 137,896

2012 / 2 56,082 831 16,125 73,038 49,805 15,708 346 82 ‐ 2,339 68,280 422 11,900 4,784 ‐ 5,396 22,502 163,820

2013 / 1 49,692 723 15,581 65,996 40,260 13,711 284 82 ‐ 1,826 56,163 341 12,530 3,870 ‐ 4,604 21,345 143,504

2013 / 2 68,154 1,064 18,398 87,616 44,708 15,681 210 67 ‐ 3,431 64,097 954 13,573 5,804 6 6,171 26,508 178,221

2014 / 1 45,488 802 16,466 62,756 37,580 14,647 65 26 ‐ 2,160 54,478 714 13,696 4,187 3 6,512 25,112 142,346

2014 / 2 38,256 790 15,664 54,710 25,989 9,201 93 49 ‐ 458 35,790 68 11,574 4,582 ‐ 5,936 22,160 112,660

Total 1,021,462 61,419 428,272 1,511,153 1,306,556 361,014 9,863 2,426 2,999 262,125 1,944,983 15,498 406,718 235,303 447 135,607 793,573 4,249,709

2014 / 1 &

prior983,206 60,629 412,608 1,456,443 1,280,567 351,813 9,770 2,377 2,999 261,667 1,909,193 15,430 395,144 230,721 447 129,671 771,413 4,137,049

Change

Total

Accident Half


Direct Comp

Property Damage

Total sum([37] to


Uninsured

Automobile

Total sum([41] to

[46])

Underinsured


Total sum([48] to

[52])

Total sum([40] +

[47] + [53])

[37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54]

Prior to 2008 (674) (15) (222) (1,616) 10 (284) ‐ ‐ ‐ 25 997 (39) (97) (30) ‐ (17) (193) (812)

2008 / 1 (288) ‐ (3) (291) 795 14 ‐ ‐ ‐ (104) 705 1 (34) ‐ ‐ (1) (34) 380

2008 / 2 (410) ‐ (4) (414) 628 12 ‐ ‐ ‐ (99) 541 24 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 24 151

2009 / 1 (1,173) (2) (3) (1,178) 1,417 91 ‐ ‐ ‐ (183) 1,325 193 (3) ‐ ‐ (2) 188 335

2009 / 2 (2,032) ‐ (201) (2,233) 566 (143) ‐ ‐ ‐ (201) 222 161 (10) ‐ ‐ ‐ 151 (1,860)

2010 / 1 (2,939) ‐ 4 (2,935) 5,388 129 ‐ ‐ ‐ (157) 5,360 16 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 16 2,441

2010 / 2 (4,218) ‐ (6) (4,224) 2,095 288 ‐ 5 ‐ (27) 2,361 (38) 4 ‐ ‐ (1) (35) (1,898)

2011 / 1 (2,821) 8 (14) (2,827) (409) (549) ‐ ‐ ‐ 297 (661) 45 (12) 77 ‐ ‐ 110 (3,378)

2011 / 2 (3,435) 18 3 (3,414) 1,282 (54) ‐ ‐ ‐ (91) 1,137 120 14 7 ‐ 23 164 (2,113)

2012 / 1 (5,773) ‐ (16) (5,789) 1,932 (248) ‐ ‐ ‐ (348) 1,336 (114) (18) (3) ‐ 12 (123) (4,576)

2012 / 2 (6,772) (13) (25) (6,810) 1,225 (112) 1 ‐ ‐ 58 1,172 32 8 2 ‐ 16 58 (5,580)

2013 / 1 (4,155) 64 (7) (4,098) 2,065 (254) 4 ‐ ‐ 99 1,914 (18) (23) (2) ‐ 12 (31) (2,215)

2013 / 2 (7,390) (24) (16) (7,430) 1,029 (700) 4 1 ‐ (394) (60) 22 (89) 13 ‐ (36) (90) (7,580)

2014 / 1 (7,213) 78 (696) (7,831) 1,724 (1,639) (29) (6) ‐ (136) (86) (145) (314) (227) ‐ (324) (1,010) (8,927)

2014 / 2 21,915 (156) 1,198 22,957 14,113 4,710 (10) 2 11 962 19,788 300 2,715 507 14 392 3,928 46,673

Total (27,378) (42) (8) (27,428) 33,860 1,261 (30) 2 11 (299) 34,805 560 2,141 344 14 74 3,133 10,510

2014 / 1 &

prior(49,293) 114 (1,206) (50,385) 19,747 (3,449) (20) ‐ ‐ (1,261) 15,017 260 (574) (163) ‐ (318) (795) (36,163)

Third Party Liability Accident Benefits Other Coverages




File: 01a RSP ON 2014‐Q4 ultimate comparison exhibits v03.xlsx FA Actuarial Printed: 3/3/2015, 10:04 AM

Exhibit B.1.6

CAHY Selections



CAHY Selected Ultimate Incurred Amounts

Amounts in $s

Risk Sharing Pool - Ontario

Bodily Injury Property Damage

Direct Comp

Property Damage AccBen (indivis)

Uninsured

Automobile

Underinsured

Motorist

Collision (w All

Perils)

Comprehensive (w

Spec Perils) All Coverages

(1) Earned Premium at December 31, 2014 42,730,844 1,939,809 20,192,200 48,697,806 1,729,504 1,156,433 15,951,217 4,214,030 136,611,843

(2) Paid Indemnity & Allowed Claims Expense at December 31, 2014 26,987 101,488 12,697,525 1,862,203 89,820 10,334 15,722,386 3,921,969 34,432,712

(3) Case Reserves at December 31, 2014 16,102,251 274,677 3,122,605 20,284,578 254,178 81,423 4,105,873 624,451 44,850,036

(4) Recorded Indemnity & Allowed Claims Expense at December 31, 2014 16,129,238 376,165 15,820,130 22,146,781 343,998 91,757 19,828,259 4,546,420 79,282,748

(5) A Priori Loss Ratio Estimate Ultimate 64,523,574 1,125,089 16,153,760 64,281,104 3,580,073 774,810 18,184,387 4,171,890 172,794,687

(6) A Priori Loss Ratio = (5) / (1) 151.0% 58.0% 80.0% 132.0% 207.0% 67.0% 114.0% 99.0% 126.5%

(7) Incurred Development Estimate Ultimate 60,171,191 633,772 16,862,274 54,162,666 1,419,982 368,040 20,617,269 5,103,295 159,338,489

(8) Incurred Development Loss Ratio = (7) / (1) 140.8% 32.7% 83.5% 111.2% 82.1% 31.8% 129.3% 121.1% 116.6%

(9) Bornhuetter Ferguson Estimate Ultimate 63,356,892 833,476 16,818,486 60,143,737 3,056,780 673,397 20,524,164 5,001,659 170,408,591

(10) Bornhuetter Ferguson Loss Ratio = (9) / (1) 148.3% 43.0% 83.3% 123.5% 176.7% 58.2% 128.7% 118.7% 124.7%

(11) User Defined Ultimate - Incurred (Zero IBNR) 16,129,238 376,165 15,820,130 22,146,781 343,998 91,757 19,828,259 4,546,420 79,282,748

(12) User Defined Loss Ratio = (11) / (1) 37.7% 19.4% 78.3% 45.5% 19.9% 7.9% 124.3% 107.9% 58.0%

(13) Weight Applicable to A Priori Loss Ratio Estimate 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

(14) Weight Applicable to Incurred Development Estimate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

(15) Weight Applicable to Bornhuetter Ferguson Estimate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(16) Weight Applicable to User Defined Estimate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

(17) Selected Ultimate = [(5) * (13)] + [(7) * (14)] + [(9) * (15)] + [(11) * (16)] 64,523,574 1,125,089 16,153,760 64,281,104 3,580,073 774,810 20,524,164 5,001,659 175,964,233

(18) Selected Ultimate Loss Ratio = (17) / (1) 151.0% 58.0% 80.0% 132.0% 207.0% 67.0% 128.7% 118.7% 128.8%

(19) Earned Premium at December 31, 2014 42,730,844 1,939,809 20,192,200 48,697,806 1,729,504 1,156,433 15,951,217 4,214,030 136,611,843

(20) Selected Ultimate Loss Ratio = (18) 151.0% 58.0% 80.0% 132.0% 207.0% 67.0% 128.7% 118.7% 128.8%

(21) Selected Ultimate at December 31, 2014 = (19) * (20) 64,523,574 1,125,089 16,153,760 64,281,104 3,580,073 774,810 20,524,164 5,001,659 175,964,233

(22) Selected IBNR at December 31, 2014 = round((21) - (4)) 48,394,000 749,000 334,000 42,134,000 3,236,000 683,000 696,000 455,000 96,681,000


Exhibit B.2.1



Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Third Party Liability

RSP: Ontario

Life to Date

Accident YearEarned

Premium






Claims Expense


Claims Expense


[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]


2009 & prior 1,026,417 809,170 78.8% 38,803 3.8% 847,973 82.6% 551 0.1% 848,524 82.7% 39,354 3.8%

2010 116,252 92,061 79.2% 42,554 36.6% 134,615 115.8% 2,207 1.9% 136,822 117.7% 44,761 38.5%

2011 117,809 54,441 46.2% 37,903 32.2% 92,344 78.4% 9,959 8.5% 102,303 86.8% 47,862 40.6%

2012 126,927 46,948 37.0% 51,735 40.8% 98,683 77.7% 31,940 25.2% 130,623 102.9% 83,675 65.9%

2013 130,586 42,194 32.3% 47,542 36.4% 89,736 68.7% 56,537 43.3% 146,273 112.0% 104,079 79.7%

2014 126,923 29,129 23.0% 35,947 28.3% 65,076 51.3% 84,068 66.2% 149,144 117.5% 120,015 94.6%

TOTAL 1,644,914 1,073,943 65.3% 254,484 15.5% 1,328,427 80.8% 185,262 11.3% 1,513,689 92.0% 439,746 26.7%

2013 & prior 1,517,991 1,044,814 68.8% 218,537 14.4% 1,263,351 83.2% 101,194 6.7% 1,364,545 89.9% 319,731 21.1%


Accident YearEarned

Premium (LTD)










[15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]


2009 & prior 1,026,417 6,300 0.6% (7,735) (0.8%) (1,435) (0.1%) (3,769) (0.4%) (5,204) (0.5%) (11,504) (1.1%)

2010 116,252 3,586 3.1% (3,564) (3.1%) 22 - (5,576) (4.8%) (5,554) (4.8%) (9,140) (7.9%)

2011 117,809 3,198 2.7% (2,510) (2.1%) 688 0.6% (6,823) (5.8%) (6,135) (5.2%) (9,333) (7.9%)

2012 126,927 5,205 4.1% (3,012) (2.4%) 2,193 1.7% (7,523) (5.9%) (5,330) (4.2%) (10,535) (8.3%)

2013 130,586 3,182 2.4% (1,061) (0.8%) 2,121 1.6% (8,985) (6.9%) (6,864) (5.3%) (10,046) (7.7%)

TOTAL 1,517,991 21,471 1.4% (17,882) (1.2%) 3,589 0.2% (32,676) (2.2%) (29,087) (1.9%) (50,558) (3.3%)



Unpaid








[29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]


2009 & prior 4,320 50,858 6,300 12.4% (1,435) (33.2%) (5,204) (10.2%)

2010 7,783 53,901 3,586 6.7% 22 0.3% (5,554) (10.3%)

2011 16,782 57,195 3,198 5.6% 688 4.1% (6,135) (10.7%)

2012 39,463 94,210 5,205 5.5% 2,193 5.6% (5,330) (5.7%)

2013 65,522 114,125 3,182 2.8% 2,121 3.2% (6,864) (6.0%)

TOTAL 133,870 370,289 21,471 5.8% 3,589 2.7% (29,087) (7.9%)



Exhibit B.2.2



Amounts in: $1,000s


RSP: Ontario






[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]


AY1993 & Prior 43,733 34,272 - 34,272 - 34,272 - - - - - - - - -

1994 83,590 49,012 (1) 49,011 - 49,011 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% - - - -

1995 86,097 46,582 - 46,582 - 46,582 54.1% 54.1% 54.1% 54.1% 54.1% - - - -

1996 64,608 42,290 346 42,636 - 42,636 66.0% 66.0% 67.0% 67.0% 66.3% - (7) (0.3%) (194)

1997 53,175 39,483 (1) 39,482 - 39,482 74.2% 74.3% 74.3% 74.3% 74.3% (0.1%) (1) (0.1%) (53)

1998 38,010 32,259 1 32,260 - 32,260 84.9% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% (0.1%) (37) (0.1%) (38)

1999 26,635 31,280 22 31,302 - 31,302 117.5% 117.5% 117.5% 117.5% 117.5% - - - -

2000 27,670 31,586 - 31,586 - 31,586 114.2% 114.2% 114.2% 114.2% 114.3% - - (0.1%) (28)

2001 31,638 36,249 49 36,298 - 36,298 114.7% 114.6% 114.6% 114.6% 114.7% 0.1% 29 - -

2002 44,637 50,396 8 50,404 3 50,407 112.9% 112.9% 112.9% 113.0% 112.8% - (2) 0.1% 45

2003 55,713 45,794 1,777 47,571 22 47,593 85.4% 85.5% 85.4% 85.5% 85.5% (0.1%) (24) (0.1%) (56)

2004 66,497 51,306 178 51,484 38 51,522 77.5% 77.5% 77.6% 77.6% 77.7% - (44) (0.2%) (133)

2005 66,816 43,316 420 43,736 49 43,785 65.5% 66.0% 66.2% 66.7% 66.7% (0.5%) (339) (1.2%) (802)

2006 69,800 58,872 4,652 63,524 44 63,568 91.1% 90.7% 91.2% 91.3% 91.0% 0.4% 282 0.1% 70

2007 78,410 65,048 3,347 68,395 181 68,576 87.5% 88.4% 88.1% 87.8% 88.2% (0.9%) (767) (0.7%) (549)

2008 93,757 72,389 8,592 80,981 456 81,437 86.9% 87.6% 88.2% 88.8% 89.1% (0.7%) (705) (2.2%) (2,063)

2009 95,631 79,036 19,413 98,449 (242) 98,207 102.7% 106.4% 106.5% 106.5% 107.0% (3.7%) (3,589) (4.3%) (4,112)

2010 116,252 92,061 42,554 134,615 2,207 136,822 117.7% 122.5% 124.7% 126.0% 127.4% (4.8%) (5,554) (9.7%) (11,276)

2011 117,809 54,441 37,903 92,344 9,959 102,303 86.8% 92.0% 96.0% 104.6% 106.1% (5.2%) (6,135) (19.3%) (22,737)

2012 126,927 46,948 51,735 98,683 31,940 130,623 102.9% 107.1% 110.6% 119.2% 120.1% (4.2%) (5,330) (17.2%) (21,831)

2013 130,586 42,194 47,542 89,736 56,537 146,273 112.0% 117.3% 121.3% 132.7% 132.5% (5.3%) (6,864) (20.5%) (26,770)

2014 126,923 29,129 35,947 65,076 84,068 149,144 117.5% 117.7% 115.8% 142.0% - - - **

TOTAL 1,644,914 1,073,943 254,484 1,328,427 185,262 1,513,689 92.0% 93.3% 93.9% 96.5% 95.9% (29,087) (90,527)

2013 & prior 1,517,991 1,044,814 218,537 1,263,351 101,194 1,364,545 89.9% 91.8% 93.0% 95.6% 95.9% (29,087) (90,527)






Exhibit B.2.3

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 2 131.0% 96.0% 35.0%

2004 / 1 99.0% 94.0% 5.0%

2004 / 2 109.0% 104.0% 5.0%

2005 / 1 98.0% 94.0% 4.0%

2005 / 2 114.0% 108.0% 6.0%

2006 / 1 102.0% 98.0% 4.0%

2006 / 2 117.0% 112.0% 5.0%

2007 / 1 105.0% 100.0% 5.0%

2007 / 2 120.0% 115.0% 5.0%

2008 / 1 106.0% 102.0% 4.0%

2008 / 2 120.0% 116.0% 4.0%

2009 / 1 106.0% 102.0% 4.0%

2009 / 2 120.0% 116.0% 4.0%

2010 / 1 105.0% 102.0% 3.0%

2010 / 2 116.0% 109.0% 7.0%

2011 / 1 101.0% 96.0% 5.0%

2011 / 2 112.0% 109.0% 3.0% Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2012 / 1 101.0% 99.0% 2.0%

2012 / 2 116.0% 117.0% (1.0%)

2013 / 1 105.0% 107.0% (2.0%)

2013 / 2 120.0% 125.0% (5.0%)

2014 / 1 108.0% 109.0% (1.0%)

2014 / 2 126.0% 129.0% (3.0%)

2015 / 1 114.0% 113.0% 1.0%

2015 / 2 133.0% 135.0% (2.0%)

2016 / 1 120.0% 118.0% 2.0%

2016 / 2 141.0% 141.0% -



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 2 29,564 25,029 959 26,014 88.0% 1.4060 1.0000 1.0000 41,566 1.3361 1.0000 1.0000 34,756 83.6% -

2004 / 1 32,323 22,724 234 22,985 71.1% 1.3077 1.0000 1.0000 42,269 1.6297 1.0000 1.0000 37,457 88.6% -

2004 / 2 34,174 28,355 191 28,582 83.6% 1.2598 1.0000 1.0000 43,051 1.4406 1.0000 1.0000 41,175 95.6% -

2005 / 1 33,905 20,595 32 20,657 60.9% 1.2606 1.0000 1.0000 42,741 1.5676 1.0000 1.0000 32,382 75.8% -

2005 / 2 32,910 22,712 710 23,467 71.3% 1.2729 1.0000 1.0000 41,892 1.3758 1.0000 1.0000 32,285 77.1% -

2006 / 1 32,706 24,183 824 25,052 76.6% 1.2794 1.0000 1.0000 41,843 1.5616 1.0000 1.0000 39,119 93.5% -

2006 / 2 37,093 32,869 5,232 38,235 103.1% 1.2772 1.0000 1.0000 47,375 1.3677 1.0000 1.0000 52,294 110.4% -

2007 / 1 38,499 30,116 1,189 31,487 81.8% 1.2749 1.0000 1.0000 49,081 1.4965 1.0000 1.0000 47,121 96.0% -

2007 / 2 39,913 34,748 2,694 37,856 94.8% 1.2685 1.0000 1.0000 50,631 1.3233 1.0000 1.0000 50,095 98.9% -

2008 / 1 46,492 36,167 3,795 40,543 87.2% 1.2568 1.0000 1.0000 58,431 1.4637 1.0000 1.0000 59,342 101.6% -

2008 / 2 47,264 35,443 5,531 41,599 88.0% 1.2407 1.0000 1.0000 58,641 1.2744 1.0000 1.0000 53,016 90.4% 3.3%

2009 / 1 46,600 33,555 10,642 44,976 96.5% 1.2232 1.0000 1.0000 57,000 1.4317 1.0000 1.0000 64,392 113.0% 3.2%

2009 / 2 49,031 42,658 12,787 56,820 115.9% 1.2031 1.0000 1.0000 58,988 1.2580 1.0000 1.0000 71,479 121.2% 9.4%

2010 / 1 55,043 46,131 20,208 68,789 125.0% 1.1844 1.0000 1.0000 65,191 1.4115 1.0000 1.0000 97,095 148.9% 9.4%

2010 / 2 61,209 42,344 25,910 73,587 120.2% 1.1666 1.0000 1.0000 71,409 1.2446 1.0000 1.0000 91,586 128.3% 9.4%

2011 / 1 58,131 25,726 16,969 48,847 84.0% 1.1093 1.0000 1.0000 64,487 1.3553 1.0000 1.0000 66,204 102.7% 9.4%

2011 / 2 59,679 25,517 23,444 59,591 99.9% 1.0647 1.0000 1.0000 63,540 1.1779 1.0000 1.0000 70,190 110.5% 9.4%

2012 / 1 62,667 20,857 27,086 62,079 99.1% 1.0487 1.0000 1.0000 65,716 1.3015 1.0000 1.0000 80,796 122.9% 9.4%

2012 / 2 64,259 20,886 27,661 73,874 115.0% 1.0391 1.0000 1.0000 66,770 1.1173 1.0000 1.0000 82,536 123.6% 9.4%

2013 / 1 64,649 18,285 21,560 68,427 105.8% 1.0303 1.0000 1.0000 66,607 1.2299 1.0000 1.0000 84,160 126.4% 9.5%

2013 / 2 65,919 20,727 27,044 84,709 128.5% 1.0108 1.0000 1.0000 66,629 1.0569 1.0000 1.0000 89,532 134.4% 9.5%

2014 / 1 62,121 15,906 14,860 69,229 111.4% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 62,121 1.1620 1.0000 1.0000 80,442 129.5% 9.5%

Total 1,054,151 625,533 249,563 1,047,405 99.4% 1.1630 1.0000 1.0000 1,225,979 1.2960 1.0000 1.0000 1,357,454 110.7% 100.7%



-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Third Party Liability



(60.0%)

(50.0%)

(40.0%)

(30.0%)

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

-

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2



Exhibit B.2.3a

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: BI

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 2 194.0% 123.0% 71.0%

2004 / 1 135.0% 125.0% 10.0%

2004 / 2 150.0% 139.0% 11.0%

2005 / 1 129.0% 121.0% 8.0%

2005 / 2 153.0% 142.0% 11.0%

2006 / 1 133.0% 125.0% 8.0%

2006 / 2 155.0% 145.0% 10.0%

2007 / 1 134.0% 126.0% 8.0%

2007 / 2 155.0% 146.0% 9.0%

2008 / 1 133.0% 126.0% 7.0%

2008 / 2 155.0% 146.0% 9.0%

2009 / 1 131.0% 125.0% 6.0%

2009 / 2 149.0% 142.0% 7.0%

2010 / 1 127.0% 122.0% 5.0%

2010 / 2 145.0% 132.0% 13.0%

2011 / 1 120.0% 112.0% 8.0%


2012 / 2 139.0% 140.0% (1.0%)

2013 / 1 122.0% 127.0% (5.0%)

2013 / 2 144.0% 153.0% (9.0%)

2014 / 1 126.0% 129.0% (3.0%)

2014 / 2 151.0% 158.0% (7.0%)

2015 / 1 134.0% 135.0% (1.0%)

2015 / 2 161.0% 166.0% (5.0%)

2016 / 1 143.0% 142.0% 1.0%

2016 / 2 171.0% 174.0% (3.0%)



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 2 14,921 16,821 951 17,797 119.3% 1.8096 1.0000 1.0000 27,001 1.4053 1.0000 1.0000 25,010 92.6% -

2004 / 1 16,724 14,840 226 15,091 90.2% 1.6422 1.0000 1.0000 27,464 1.8430 1.0000 1.0000 27,814 101.3% -

2004 / 2 18,029 19,632 178 19,846 110.1% 1.5523 1.0000 1.0000 27,986 1.5592 1.0000 1.0000 30,944 110.6% -

2005 / 1 18,189 12,932 10 12,972 71.3% 1.5260 1.0000 1.0000 27,756 1.7810 1.0000 1.0000 23,103 83.2% -

2005 / 2 17,863 13,915 676 14,636 81.9% 1.5218 1.0000 1.0000 27,184 1.5068 1.0000 1.0000 22,054 81.1% -

2006 / 1 17,886 16,655 784 17,483 97.7% 1.5175 1.0000 1.0000 27,142 1.7211 1.0000 1.0000 30,090 110.9% -

2006 / 2 20,557 22,042 5,186 27,361 133.1% 1.4947 1.0000 1.0000 30,727 1.4562 1.0000 1.0000 39,844 129.7% -

2007 / 1 21,628 19,290 1,173 20,645 95.5% 1.4717 1.0000 1.0000 31,830 1.6633 1.0000 1.0000 34,339 107.9% -

2007 / 2 22,786 23,289 2,635 26,338 115.6% 1.4410 1.0000 1.0000 32,835 1.4073 1.0000 1.0000 37,066 112.9% -

2008 / 1 26,670 22,993 3,792 27,366 102.6% 1.4207 1.0000 1.0000 37,890 1.6075 1.0000 1.0000 43,990 116.1% -

2008 / 2 27,306 20,783 5,527 26,935 98.6% 1.3924 1.0000 1.0000 38,021 1.3599 1.0000 1.0000 36,629 96.3% -

2009 / 1 27,392 19,968 10,617 31,364 114.5% 1.3494 1.0000 1.0000 36,963 1.5534 1.0000 1.0000 48,721 131.8% -

2009 / 2 29,477 27,668 12,551 41,594 141.1% 1.2977 1.0000 1.0000 38,252 1.3143 1.0000 1.0000 54,667 142.9% 10.0%

2010 / 1 32,660 29,203 20,176 51,829 158.7% 1.2655 1.0000 1.0000 41,331 1.5012 1.0000 1.0000 77,806 188.3% 10.0%

2010 / 2 36,610 23,350 25,763 54,446 148.7% 1.2316 1.0000 1.0000 45,089 1.2845 1.0000 1.0000 69,936 155.1% 10.0%

2011 / 1 35,369 10,499 16,939 33,589 95.0% 1.1457 1.0000 1.0000 40,522 1.4465 1.0000 1.0000 48,587 119.9% 10.0%

2011 / 2 37,518 9,972 23,418 44,020 117.3% 1.0730 1.0000 1.0000 40,257 1.2065 1.0000 1.0000 53,110 131.9% 10.0%

2012 / 1 39,893 6,081 27,050 47,245 118.4% 1.0503 1.0000 1.0000 41,900 1.3588 1.0000 1.0000 64,197 153.2% 10.0%

2012 / 2 40,894 4,044 27,556 56,813 138.9% 1.0406 1.0000 1.0000 42,554 1.1334 1.0000 1.0000 64,391 151.3% 10.0%

2013 / 1 41,367 2,163 21,402 51,824 125.3% 1.0343 1.0000 1.0000 42,786 1.2763 1.0000 1.0000 66,144 154.6% 10.0%

2013 / 2 42,313 1,594 26,870 65,166 154.0% 1.0130 1.0000 1.0000 42,863 1.0646 1.0000 1.0000 69,376 161.9% 10.0%

2014 / 1 40,133 97 14,259 51,771 129.0% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 40,133 1.1989 1.0000 1.0000 62,069 154.7% 10.0%

Total 626,185 337,831 247,738 756,133 120.8% 1.2592 1.0000 1.0000 788,486 1.3620 1.0000 1.0000 1,029,887 130.6% 100.0%



-

30.0%

60.0%

90.0%

120.0%

150.0%

180.0%

210.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Bodily Injury



(100.0%)

(80.0%)

(60.0%)

(40.0%)

(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2



Exhibit B.2.3b

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: PD

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 2 47.0% 49.0% (2.0%)

2004 / 1 43.0% 45.0% (2.0%)

2004 / 2 41.0% 43.0% (2.0%)

2005 / 1 44.0% 46.0% (2.0%)

2005 / 2 48.0% 49.0% (1.0%)

2006 / 1 50.0% 52.0% (2.0%)

2006 / 2 52.0% 54.0% (2.0%)

2007 / 1 53.0% 55.0% (2.0%)

2007 / 2 53.0% 55.0% (2.0%)

2008 / 1 54.0% 55.0% (1.0%)

2008 / 2 54.0% 56.0% (2.0%)

2009 / 1 56.0% 57.0% (1.0%)

2009 / 2 58.0% 59.0% (1.0%)

2010 / 1 59.0% 60.0% (1.0%)

2010 / 2 58.0% 59.0% (1.0%)

2011 / 1 57.0% 58.0% (1.0%)

2011 / 2 56.0% 57.0% (1.0%) Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2012 / 1 56.0% 56.0% -

2012 / 2 56.0% 56.0% -

2013 / 1 56.0% 57.0% (1.0%)

2013 / 2 56.0% 57.0% (1.0%)

2014 / 1 57.0% 57.0% -

2014 / 2 58.0% 58.0% -

2015 / 1 59.0% 59.0% -

2015 / 2 59.0% 59.0% -

2016 / 1 60.0% 60.0% -

2016 / 2 61.0% 60.0% 1.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 2 830 431 (0) 431 52.0% 1.0291 1.0000 1.0000 854 1.2664 1.0000 1.0000 546 63.9% -

2004 / 1 925 371 (0) 371 40.2% 0.9391 1.0000 1.0000 869 1.2527 1.0000 1.0000 465 53.5% -

2004 / 2 999 342 0 342 34.2% 0.8858 1.0000 1.0000 885 1.2415 1.0000 1.0000 425 48.0% -

2005 / 1 931 377 4 382 41.0% 0.9416 1.0000 1.0000 877 1.2283 1.0000 1.0000 469 53.5% -

2005 / 2 858 524 3 527 61.4% 0.9993 1.0000 1.0000 857 1.2133 1.0000 1.0000 639 74.6% -

2006 / 1 825 398 (0) 398 48.2% 1.0387 1.0000 1.0000 857 1.2007 1.0000 1.0000 477 55.7% -

2006 / 2 902 703 4 708 78.4% 1.0749 1.0000 1.0000 970 1.1884 1.0000 1.0000 841 86.7% -

2007 / 1 937 677 2 679 72.5% 1.0725 1.0000 1.0000 1,005 1.1763 1.0000 1.0000 799 79.5% -

2007 / 2 971 767 4 772 79.5% 1.0670 1.0000 1.0000 1,036 1.1625 1.0000 1.0000 897 86.6% -

2008 / 1 1,126 641 0 641 56.9% 1.0623 1.0000 1.0000 1,196 1.1509 1.0000 1.0000 737 61.6% -

2008 / 2 1,128 811 0 811 71.9% 1.0646 1.0000 1.0000 1,201 1.1377 1.0000 1.0000 923 76.9% -

2009 / 1 1,079 687 4 691 64.1% 1.0797 1.0000 1.0000 1,165 1.1266 1.0000 1.0000 779 66.9% -

2009 / 2 1,088 792 0 792 72.8% 1.1086 1.0000 1.0000 1,206 1.1140 1.0000 1.0000 882 73.1% 10.0%

2010 / 1 1,630 1,033 0 1,033 63.4% 1.1180 1.0000 1.0000 1,822 1.1016 1.0000 1.0000 1,138 62.5% 10.0%

2010 / 2 1,804 997 80 1,077 59.7% 1.0968 1.0000 1.0000 1,979 1.0895 1.0000 1.0000 1,173 59.3% 10.0%

2011 / 1 1,600 770 1 770 48.2% 1.0623 1.0000 1.0000 1,700 1.0776 1.0000 1.0000 830 48.8% 10.0%

2011 / 2 1,580 782 8 790 50.0% 1.0306 1.0000 1.0000 1,628 1.0677 1.0000 1.0000 843 51.8% 10.0%

2012 / 1 1,676 893 1 916 54.6% 1.0126 1.0000 1.0000 1,697 1.0563 1.0000 1.0000 967 57.0% 10.0%

2012 / 2 1,785 803 19 936 52.5% 1.0049 1.0000 1.0000 1,794 1.0436 1.0000 1.0000 977 54.5% 10.0%

2013 / 1 1,942 662 25 1,011 52.1% 1.0014 1.0000 1.0000 1,945 1.0327 1.0000 1.0000 1,044 53.7% 10.0%

2013 / 2 2,031 837 72 1,145 56.4% 0.9925 1.0000 1.0000 2,016 1.0221 1.0000 1.0000 1,171 58.1% 10.0%

2014 / 1 1,854 372 186 1,057 57.0% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1,854 1.0117 1.0000 1.0000 1,070 57.7% 10.0%

Total 28,501 14,670 412 16,281 57.1% 1.0320 1.0000 1.0000 29,413 1.1114 1.0000 1.0000 18,092 61.5% 100.0%



(5.0%)

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

35.0%

45.0%

55.0%

65.0%

75.0%

85.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Property Damage



(20.0%)

(15.0%)

(10.0%)

(5.0%)

-

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2



Exhibit B.2.3c

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: DCPD

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 2 67.0% 69.0% (2.0%)

2004 / 1 62.0% 62.0% -

2004 / 2 64.0% 66.0% (2.0%)

2005 / 1 63.0% 63.0% -

2005 / 2 68.0% 69.0% (1.0%)

2006 / 1 66.0% 66.0% -

2006 / 2 70.0% 71.0% (1.0%)

2007 / 1 69.0% 68.0% 1.0%

2007 / 2 74.0% 74.0% -

2008 / 1 71.0% 70.0% 1.0%

2008 / 2 74.0% 75.0% (1.0%)

2009 / 1 72.0% 71.0% 1.0%

2009 / 2 77.0% 77.0% -

2010 / 1 75.0% 73.0% 2.0%

2010 / 2 75.0% 76.0% (1.0%)

2011 / 1 73.0% 71.0% 2.0%

2011 / 2 77.0% 77.0% - Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2012 / 1 75.0% 73.0% 2.0%

2012 / 2 78.0% 78.0% -

2013 / 1 75.0% 73.0% 2.0%

2013 / 2 78.0% 77.0% 1.0%

2014 / 1 76.0% 73.0% 3.0%

2014 / 2 80.0% 79.0% 1.0%

2015 / 1 78.0% 75.0% 3.0%

2015 / 2 83.0% 81.0% 2.0%

2016 / 1 81.0% 77.0% 4.0%

2016 / 2 85.0% 83.0% 2.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 2 13,813 7,777 9 7,785 56.4% 0.9926 1.0000 1.0000 13,711 1.1817 1.0000 1.0000 9,200 67.1% -

2004 / 1 14,674 7,513 9 7,522 51.3% 0.9497 1.0000 1.0000 13,936 1.2202 1.0000 1.0000 9,178 65.9% -

2004 / 2 15,146 8,380 13 8,393 55.4% 0.9362 1.0000 1.0000 14,180 1.1683 1.0000 1.0000 9,806 69.2% -

2005 / 1 14,785 7,286 18 7,303 49.4% 0.9542 1.0000 1.0000 14,108 1.2063 1.0000 1.0000 8,810 62.4% -

2005 / 2 14,189 8,274 31 8,304 58.5% 0.9762 1.0000 1.0000 13,851 1.1551 1.0000 1.0000 9,592 69.3% -

2006 / 1 13,995 7,131 40 7,171 51.2% 0.9892 1.0000 1.0000 13,844 1.1926 1.0000 1.0000 8,552 61.8% -

2006 / 2 15,634 10,124 42 10,166 65.0% 1.0028 1.0000 1.0000 15,678 1.1420 1.0000 1.0000 11,609 74.0% -

2007 / 1 15,934 10,148 14 10,163 63.8% 1.0196 1.0000 1.0000 16,246 1.1791 1.0000 1.0000 11,983 73.8% -

2007 / 2 16,156 10,691 55 10,746 66.5% 1.0374 1.0000 1.0000 16,760 1.1290 1.0000 1.0000 12,132 72.4% -

2008 / 1 18,696 12,533 3 12,537 67.1% 1.0347 1.0000 1.0000 19,345 1.1658 1.0000 1.0000 14,615 75.5% -

2008 / 2 18,830 13,849 4 13,853 73.6% 1.0313 1.0000 1.0000 19,419 1.1163 1.0000 1.0000 15,464 79.6% 8.3%

2009 / 1 18,129 12,900 20 12,921 71.3% 1.0410 1.0000 1.0000 18,872 1.1526 1.0000 1.0000 14,892 78.9% 8.3%

2009 / 2 18,466 14,199 236 14,435 78.2% 1.0576 1.0000 1.0000 19,530 1.1036 1.0000 1.0000 15,930 81.6% 8.3%

2010 / 1 20,753 15,895 32 15,927 76.7% 1.0619 1.0000 1.0000 22,038 1.1396 1.0000 1.0000 18,151 82.4% 8.3%

2010 / 2 22,795 17,997 67 18,064 79.2% 1.0678 1.0000 1.0000 24,341 1.1336 1.0000 1.0000 20,477 84.1% 8.3%

2011 / 1 21,162 14,458 30 14,487 68.5% 1.0521 1.0000 1.0000 22,265 1.1587 1.0000 1.0000 16,787 75.4% 8.3%

2011 / 2 20,581 14,762 19 14,781 71.8% 1.0522 1.0000 1.0000 21,655 1.0985 1.0000 1.0000 16,237 75.0% 8.3%

2012 / 1 21,098 13,883 35 13,918 66.0% 1.0484 1.0000 1.0000 22,119 1.1232 1.0000 1.0000 15,632 70.7% 8.3%

2012 / 2 21,580 16,039 86 16,125 74.7% 1.0390 1.0000 1.0000 22,422 1.0647 1.0000 1.0000 17,168 76.6% 8.3%

2013 / 1 21,340 15,460 132 15,592 73.1% 1.0251 1.0000 1.0000 21,876 1.0885 1.0000 1.0000 16,972 77.6% 8.3%

2013 / 2 21,575 18,296 102 18,398 85.3% 1.0081 1.0000 1.0000 21,750 1.0319 1.0000 1.0000 18,985 87.3% 8.3%

2014 / 1 20,134 15,437 416 16,401 81.5% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 20,134 1.0550 1.0000 1.0000 17,303 85.9% 8.3%

Total 399,465 273,033 1,412 274,992 68.8% 1.0216 1.0000 1.0000 408,080 1.1254 1.0000 1.0000 309,475 75.8% 100.0%



-

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Direct Comp Property Damage



(20.0%)

(15.0%)

(10.0%)

(5.0%)

-

5.0%

10.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2



Exhibit B.2.4.1






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

ELR

Method

(prior

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]

=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 43,733 34,272 0 34,272 34,272 34,272 34,272 34,272

1994 83,590 49,012 (0) 49,011 49,011 49,011 49,011 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% 49,011 58.6%

1995 86,097 46,582 (0) 46,582 46,582 46,582 46,582 54.1% 54.1% 54.1% 46,582 54.1%

1996 64,608 42,290 346 42,636 42,636 42,636 42,636 66.0% 66.0% 66.0% 42,636 66.0%

1997 53,175 39,483 (0) 39,482 39,482 39,482 39,482 74.2% 74.2% 74.2% 39,482 74.2%

1998 38,010 32,259 0 32,260 32,260 32,260 32,260 84.9% 84.9% 84.9% 32,260 84.9%

1999 26,635 31,280 22 31,302 31,302 31,302 31,302 117.5% 117.5% 117.5% 31,302 117.5%

2000 27,670 31,586 0 31,586 31,586 31,586 31,586 114.2% 114.2% 114.2% 31,586 114.2%

2001 31,638 36,249 49 36,298 36,298 36,298 36,298 114.7% 114.7% 114.7% 36,298 114.7%

2002 44,637 50,396 8 50,404 50,407 50,407 50,404 112.9% 112.9% 112.9% 50,407 112.9%

2003 55,713 45,794 1,777 47,571 47,593 47,593 47,571 85.4% 85.4% 85.4% 47,593 85.4%

2004 66,497 51,306 178 51,484 51,522 51,522 51,484 77.5% 77.5% 77.4% 51,522 77.5%

2005 66,816 43,316 420 43,736 43,784 43,784 43,736 65.5% 65.5% 65.5% 43,785 65.5%

2006 69,800 58,872 4,652 63,524 63,568 63,568 63,524 91.1% 91.1% 91.0% 63,568 91.1%

2007 78,410 65,048 3,347 68,395 68,576 68,576 68,395 87.5% 87.5% 87.2% 68,576 87.5%

2008 93,757 72,389 8,591 80,981 81,437 81,437 80,981 86.9% 86.9% 86.4% 81,437 86.9%

2009 95,631 79,036 19,414 98,449 98,248 98,248 98,449 102.7% 102.7% 102.9% 98,207 102.7%

2010 116,252 92,061 42,554 134,615 129,232 136,763 (0.8%) 100.8% 136,822 136,901 134,615 124,473 111.2% 117.6% 117.7% 117.8% 115.8% 107.1% 136,822 117.7%

2011 117,809 54,441 37,903 92,344 125,808 99,856 9.4% 90.6% 102,303 107,852 92,344 122,555 106.8% 84.8% 86.8% 91.5% 78.4% 104.0% 102,303 86.8%

2012 126,927 46,948 51,735 98,683 138,114 123,865 23.0% 77.0% 127,135 132,045 98,683 139,311 108.8% 97.6% 100.2% 104.0% 77.7% 109.8% 130,623 102.9%

2013 130,586 42,194 47,542 89,736 146,483 142,084 54.0% 46.0% 144,458 145,224 89,736 153,822 112.2% 108.8% 110.6% 111.2% 68.7% 117.8% 146,273 112.0%

2014 126,923 29,129 35,948 65,076 148,663 132,592 64.7% 35.3% 142,994 66,861 65,076 154,500 149,144 117.5%

Total 1,644,916 1,073,942 254,484 1,328,426 688,300 1,483,725 653,712 1,437,447 1,328,426 694,662 1,513,688




Exhibit B.2.4.2






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



MethodBF Method*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

ELR Method*LR Ratio


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 34,272 34,272 34,272 - 34,272 34,272 - 34,272 - - -

1994 49,011 49,011 49,011 N/A - 49,011 58.6% 49,011 N/A - 49,011 58.6% - - - -

1995 46,582 46,582 46,582 N/A - 46,582 54.1% 46,582 N/A - 46,582 54.1% - - - -

1996 42,636 42,636 42,636 N/A - 42,636 66.0% 42,643 N/A - 42,643 66.0% (7) - (7) -

1997 39,482 39,482 39,482 N/A - 39,482 74.2% 39,483 N/A - 39,483 74.3% (1) - (1) (0.1%)

1998 32,260 32,260 32,260 N/A - 32,260 84.9% 32,297 N/A - 32,297 85.0% (38) - (38) (0.1%)

1999 31,302 31,302 31,302 N/A - 31,302 117.5% 31,302 N/A - 31,302 117.5% - - - -

2000 31,586 31,586 31,586 N/A - 31,586 114.2% 31,586 N/A - 31,586 114.2% - - - -

2001 36,298 36,298 36,298 N/A - 36,298 114.7% 36,269 N/A - 36,269 114.6% 29 - 29 0.1%

2002 50,407 50,407 50,404 N/A 3 50,407 112.9% 50,409 N/A 11 50,409 112.9% 6 (8) (2) -

2003 47,593 47,593 47,571 N/A 22 47,593 85.4% 47,617 N/A 38 47,617 85.5% (8) (16) (24) (0.1%)

2004 51,522 51,522 51,484 N/A 38 51,522 77.5% 51,565 N/A 62 51,566 77.5% (20) (24) (44) -

2005 43,784 43,784 43,736 N/A 49 43,785 65.5% 44,124 N/A 75 44,124 66.0% (313) (26) (339) (0.5%)

2006 63,568 63,568 63,524 N/A 44 63,568 91.1% 63,286 N/A 178 63,286 90.7% 415 (134) 281 0.4%

2007 68,576 68,576 68,395 N/A 181 68,576 87.5% 69,343 N/A 596 69,343 88.4% (353) (415) (768) (0.9%)

2008 81,437 81,437 80,981 N/A 456 81,437 86.9% 82,142 N/A 1,206 82,142 87.6% 44 (750) (706) (0.7%)

2009 98,248 98,248 98,449 N/A (242) 98,207 102.7% 101,658 N/A 2,154 101,796 106.4% (1,193) (2,396) (3,589) (3.7%)

2010 129,232 136,763 136,822 136,901 134,615 124,473 N/A 2,207 136,822 117.7% 122,687 143,921 142,377 N/A 7,783 142,376 122.5% 22 (5,576) (5,554) (4.8%)

2011 125,808 99,856 102,303 107,852 92,344 122,555 N/A 9,959 102,303 86.8% 120,712 106,098 108,438 N/A 16,782 108,438 92.0% 687 (6,823) (6,136) (5.2%)

2012 138,114 123,865 127,135 132,045 98,683 139,311 N/A 31,940 130,623 102.9% 137,301 136,464 136,106 N/A 39,463 135,953 107.1% 2,193 (7,523) (5,330) (4.2%)

2013 146,483 142,084 144,458 145,224 89,736 153,822 N/A 56,537 146,273 112.0% 151,730 153,614 153,152 N/A 65,522 153,137 117.3% 2,121 (8,985) (6,864) (5.3%)

2014 148,663 132,592 142,994 66,861 65,076 154,500 N/A 84,068 149,144 117.5% 151,547 117,467 147,334 N/A 67,560 110,454 117.7% 22,183 16,508 38,691 (0.2%)

Total 688,300 1,483,725 653,712 1,437,447 1,328,426 694,662 185,262 1,513,688 683,977 1,511,154 687,406 201,430 1,504,087 25,767 (16,168) 9,599

2013 & Prior 539,637 1,351,133 510,718 1,370,587 1,263,349 540,161 101,194 1,364,543 532,430 1,393,688 540,073 133,870 1,393,633 3,584 (32,676) (29,092)




Exhibit B.2.4.3

IBNR Basis of Selection

page 1 of 2RSP Valuationas at Dec 31, 2014

RSP-ONIndem. and Allowed Clms Exp.Selection Basis for IBNR Amts

Accident Third Party Liability Third Party Liability Third Party Liability Accident BenefitsHalf Year Bodily Injury Property Damage Direct Comp Property Damage AccBen (indivis)

2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3

2014 / 2 - - - - - - - - 2014 / 1 ELR Method ELR Method ELR Method ELR Method BF Method BF Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2013 / 2 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2013 / 1 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2012 / 2 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2012 / 1 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2011 / 2 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method User Defined 2 User Defined 22011 / 1 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2010 / 2 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2010 / 1 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2009 / 2 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2009 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2008 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2008 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2007 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2007 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2006 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2006 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2005 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2005 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2004 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2004 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2003 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2003 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2002 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2002 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2001 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2001 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2000 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2000 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1999 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1999 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1998 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1998 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1997 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1997 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1996 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1996 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1995 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1995 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1994 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method

*Current accident half-year IBNR derived from the CAHY Selections exhibit


Exhibit B.2.4.3




Accident Half Year

2014 / 22014 / 12013 / 22013 / 12012 / 22012 / 12011 / 22011 / 12010 / 22010 / 12009 / 22009 / 12008 / 22008 / 12007 / 22007 / 12006 / 22006 / 12005 / 22005 / 12004 / 22004 / 12003 / 22003 / 12002 / 22002 / 12001 / 22001 / 12000 / 22000 / 11999 / 21999 / 11998 / 21998 / 11997 / 21997 / 11996 / 21996 / 11995 / 21995 / 11994 / 2

Accident Benefits Other Coverages Other Coverages Other CoveragesUninsured Automobile Underinsured Motorist Collision (w All Perils) Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)

2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3

- - - - - - - - ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method BF Method BF MethodELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method



Exhibit B.2.4.4a-1





Coverage: Bodily Injury

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

ELR

Method

(prior

trend) Ult

LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 43,733 20,166 0 20,166 20,166 20,166 20,166 20,166

1994 / 1 38,528 7,803 (0) 7,803 7,803 - 100.0% 7,803 7,803 7,803

1994 / 2 45,062 13,472 0 13,472 13,472 - 100.0% 13,472 13,472 13,472

1995 / 1 45,745 10,614 0 10,614 10,614 - 100.0% 10,614 10,614 10,614

1995 / 2 40,352 9,029 (0) 9,029 9,029 - 100.0% 9,029 9,029 9,029

1996 / 1 34,121 7,708 346 8,055 8,055 - 100.0% 8,055 8,055 8,055

1996 / 2 30,487 13,108 (0) 13,108 13,108 - 100.0% 13,108 13,108 13,108

1997 / 1 27,955 11,206 (0) 11,206 11,206 - 100.0% 11,206 11,206 11,206

1997 / 2 25,221 10,274 (0) 10,274 10,274 - 100.0% 10,274 10,274 10,274

1998 / 1 21,209 9,952 (0) 9,952 9,952 - 100.0% 9,952 9,952 9,952

1998 / 2 16,802 9,396 0 9,396 9,396 - 100.0% 9,396 9,396 9,396

1999 / 1 13,390 9,723 (0) 9,723 9,723 - 100.0% 9,723 9,723 9,723

1999 / 2 13,245 11,012 21 11,033 11,033 - 100.0% 11,033 11,033 11,033

2000 / 1 13,460 11,941 0 11,941 11,941 - 100.0% 11,941 11,941 11,941

2000 / 2 14,210 7,995 (0) 7,995 7,995 - 100.0% 7,995 7,995 7,995

2001 / 1 14,381 10,213 49 10,262 10,262 - 100.0% 10,262 10,262 10,262

2001 / 2 17,257 12,765 (0) 12,765 12,765 - 100.0% 12,765 12,765 12,765

2002 / 1 20,759 16,576 5 16,580 16,580 - 100.0% 16,580 16,580 16,580

2002 / 2 23,877 16,490 (0) 16,490 16,494 - 100.0% 16,494 16,490 16,493

2003 / 1 26,149 12,074 826 12,900 12,906 - 100.0% 12,906 12,900 12,906

2003 / 2 29,564 16,821 951 17,772 17,788 - 100.0% 17,788 17,772 17,788

2004 / 1 32,323 15,068 (0) 15,068 15,081 - 100.0% 15,081 15,068 15,082

2004 / 2 34,174 19,632 178 19,810 19,834 - 100.0% 19,834 19,810 19,834

2005 / 1 33,906 12,938 0 12,938 12,955 - 100.0% 12,955 12,938 12,955

2005 / 2 32,910 13,918 415 14,332 14,364 - 100.0% 14,364 14,332 14,364

2006 / 1 32,707 16,670 842 17,512 17,559 - 100.0% 17,559 17,512 17,559

2006 / 2 37,104 23,845 3,810 27,655 27,652 - 100.0% 27,652 27,655 27,652

2007 / 1 38,546 19,322 1,122 20,444 20,497 - 100.0% 20,497 20,444 20,497

2007 / 2 39,980 23,442 2,219 25,661 25,789 - 100.0% 25,789 25,661 25,789

2008 / 1 46,539 23,522 3,175 26,696 27,077 - 100.0% 27,077 26,696 27,076

2008 / 2 47,212 21,037 5,412 26,449 26,525 - 100.0% 26,525 26,449 26,525

2009 / 1 41,137 21,512 8,702 30,214 30,192 - 100.0% 30,192 30,214 30,192

2009 / 2 32,470 28,947 10,656 39,602 48,380 39,423 (0.5%) 100.5% 39,383 - 100.0% 39,423 39,602 47,081 149.0% 121.4% 121.3% 121.4% 122.0% 145.0% 39,382 121.3%

2010 / 1 32,660 30,437 19,098 49,535 41,479 49,676 0.3% 99.7% 49,653 - 100.0% 49,676 49,535 40,499 127.0% 152.1% 152.0% 152.1% 151.7% 124.0% 49,653 152.0%

2010 / 2 36,610 25,702 23,280 48,982 53,084 50,988 3.9% 96.1% 51,071 12.5% 87.5% 51,250 48,982 49,057 145.0% 139.3% 139.5% 140.0% 133.8% 134.0% 51,071 139.5%

2011 / 1 35,368 12,024 15,275 27,300 42,442 29,660 8.0% 92.0% 30,677 25.0% 75.0% 32,855 27,300 40,320 120.0% 83.9% 86.7% 92.9% 77.2% 114.0% 30,677 86.7%

2011 / 2 37,518 11,630 22,571 34,201 50,274 39,353 13.1% 86.9% 40,783 37.5% 62.5% 43,449 34,201 49,149 134.0% 104.9% 108.7% 115.8% 91.2% 131.0% 40,783 108.7%

2012 / 1 39,893 8,373 25,345 33,718 46,675 42,841 21.3% 78.7% 43,657 50.0% 50.0% 44,758 33,718 46,675 117.0% 107.4% 109.4% 112.2% 84.5% 117.0% 44,758 112.2%

2012 / 2 40,896 6,948 26,308 33,256 56,845 49,310 32.6% 67.4% 51,763 62.5% 37.5% 54,019 33,256 58,072 139.0% 120.6% 126.6% 132.1% 81.3% 142.0% 54,019 132.1%

2013 / 1 41,381 4,520 20,186 24,706 50,484 45,537 45.7% 54.3% 47,800 75.0% 25.0% 49,247 24,706 53,381 122.0% 110.0% 115.5% 119.0% 59.7% 129.0% 49,248 119.0%

2013 / 2 42,322 2,192 27,136 29,327 60,944 60,764 51.7% 48.3% 60,857 87.5% 12.5% 60,921 29,327 65,599 144.0% 143.6% 143.8% 143.9% 69.3% 155.0% 60,921 143.9%

2014 / 1 40,093 148 16,183 16,330 50,518 38,275 57.3% 42.7% 45,294 100.0% - 50,518 16,330 52,522 126.0% 95.5% 113.0% 126.0% 40.7% 131.0% 50,517 126.0%

2014 / 2 42,731 27 16,102 16,129 64,524 60,171 73.2% 26.8% 63,357 - - - 16,129 68,797 151.0% 140.8% 148.3% 161.0% 64,523 151.0%

Total 1,393,988 590,190 250,211 840,401 565,648 994,084 524,294 964,203 840,401 571,152 1,023,638


**For 'off-half' valuation quarters (Mar and Sep), the current accident half-year (CAHY) by method Ultimate Loss estimates ([5] to [22]) are based on projected full AHY Earned Premium estimates


Exhibit B.2.4.4a-2



Comparison of Estimated IBNR by Method


Coverage: Bodily Injury

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

ELR Method

(prior trend)

IBNR

User Defined

2 IBNRSelected IBNR Method

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*Selected IBNR Method

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 20,166 - - 20,166 - - -

1994 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - 7,803 - Link Ratio Method - 7,803 - - -




1996 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - 8,055 - Link Ratio Method - 8,062 (7) - (7)










2001 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - 10,262 - Link Ratio Method - 10,233 29 - 29


2002 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - 16,580 3 Link Ratio Method 3 16,577 6 (3) 3

2002 / 2 3 3 - Link Ratio Method 3 16,493 8 Link Ratio Method 8 16,498 - (5) (5)

2003 / 1 6 6 - Link Ratio Method 6 12,906 13 Link Ratio Method 13 12,912 1 (7) (6)




2005 / 1 17 17 - Link Ratio Method 17 12,955 30 Link Ratio Method 30 12,972 (4) (13) (17)


2006 / 1 47 47 - Link Ratio Method 47 17,559 44 Link Ratio Method 44 17,483 73 3 76

2006 / 2 (3) (3) - Link Ratio Method (3) 27,652 134 Link Ratio Method 134 27,361 428 (137) 291





2009 / 1 (22) (22) - Link Ratio Method (22) 30,192 779 Link Ratio Method 779 31,364 (372) (801) (1,173)

2009 / 2 8,778 (179) (220) (179) - 7,479 BF Method (220) 39,382 121.3% 5,888 1,237 1,375 BF Method 1,375 41,594 128.1% (616) (1,595) (2,211) (6.8%)

2010 / 1 (8,056) 141 118 141 - (9,036) BF Method 118 49,653 152.0% (9,534) 3,235 2,450 BF Method 2,450 51,829 158.7% 156 (2,332) (2,176) (6.7%)

2010 / 2 4,102 2,006 2,089 2,268 - 75 BF Method 2,089 51,071 139.5% (788) 6,093 5,333 BF Method 5,333 54,446 148.7% (131) (3,244) (3,375) (9.2%)

2011 / 1 15,142 2,360 3,377 5,555 - 13,020 BF Method 3,377 30,677 86.7% 12,175 5,044 6,152 BF Method 6,152 33,589 95.0% (138) (2,775) (2,913) (8.3%)

2011 / 2 16,073 5,152 6,582 9,248 - 14,948 BF Method 6,582 40,783 108.7% 15,009 9,398 10,630 BF Method 10,630 44,020 117.3% 811 (4,048) (3,237) (8.6%)

2012 / 1 12,957 9,122 9,939 11,040 - 12,957 ELR & LR Wtd Method 11,040 44,758 112.2% 12,746 15,482 14,611 ELR & LR Wtd Method 14,114 47,245 118.4% 587 (3,074) (2,487) (6.2%)

2012 / 2 23,589 16,054 18,507 20,763 - 24,816 ELR & LR Wtd Method 20,763 54,019 132.1% 25,651 24,481 24,992 ELR & LR Wtd Method 25,212 56,813 138.9% 1,656 (4,449) (2,793) (6.8%)



2014 / 1 34,187 21,944 28,964 34,187 - 36,192 ELR Method 34,187 50,517 126.0% 37,416 31,133 35,433 ELR Method 37,416 51,771 129.0% 1,975 (3,229) (1,254) (3.0%)

2014 / 2 48,394 64,523 151.0%

Total 164,167 109,641 123,980 139,931 - 165,397 183,237 1,023,638 163,809 164,865 166,300 170,588 988,929 5,932 (35,745) (29,813)

2013 / 2 & Prior 129,980 87,697 95,016 105,744 - 129,206 100,656 908,597 126,393 133,732 130,866 133,172 937,157 3,957 (32,516) (28,559)


**Current accident half-year IBNR and Ultimate Loss estimates derived from the CAHY Selections exhibit


Exhibit B.2.4.4b-1





Coverage: Property Damage

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

ELR

Method

(prior

trend) Ult

LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - 14,107 - 14,107 14,107 14,107 14,107 14,107

1994 / 1 - 13,519 (0) 13,519 13,519 - 100.0% 13,519 13,519 13,519

1994 / 2 - 8,774 0 8,774 8,774 - 100.0% 8,774 8,774 8,774

1995 / 1 - 2,240 0 2,240 2,240 - 100.0% 2,240 2,240 2,240

1995 / 2 - 728 (0) 728 728 - 100.0% 728 728 728

1996 / 1 - 608 (0) 608 608 - 100.0% 608 608 608

1996 / 2 - 511 0 511 511 - 100.0% 511 511 511

1997 / 1 - 411 (0) 411 411 - 100.0% 411 411 411

1997 / 2 - 403 0 403 403 - 100.0% 403 403 403

1998 / 1 - 447 (0) 447 447 - 100.0% 447 447 447

1998 / 2 - 253 - 253 253 - 100.0% 253 253 253

1999 / 1 - 263 (0) 263 263 - 100.0% 263 263 263

1999 / 2 - 286 - 286 286 - 100.0% 286 286 286

2000 / 1 - 289 0 289 289 - 100.0% 289 289 289

2000 / 2 - 412 - 412 412 - 100.0% 412 412 412

2001 / 1 - 314 (0) 314 314 - 100.0% 314 314 314

2001 / 2 - 321 (0) 321 321 - 100.0% 321 321 321

2002 / 1 - 433 (0) 433 433 - 100.0% 433 433 433

2002 / 2 0 430 0 430 430 - 100.0% 430 430 430

2003 / 1 0 351 (0) 351 351 - 100.0% 351 351 351

2003 / 2 - 431 (0) 431 431 - 100.0% 431 431 431

2004 / 1 - 371 (0) 371 371 - 100.0% 371 371 371

2004 / 2 (0) 342 0 342 342 - 100.0% 342 342 342

2005 / 1 (0) 377 2 379 379 - 100.0% 379 379 379

2005 / 2 (0) 524 3 527 527 - 100.0% 527 527 527

2006 / 1 (0) 398 (0) 398 398 - 100.0% 398 398 398

2006 / 2 (1) 703 0 703 703 - 100.0% 703 703 703

2007 / 1 (2) 677 0 677 677 - 100.0% 677 677 677

2007 / 2 (3) 767 0 767 767 - 100.0% 767 767 767

2008 / 1 (3) 641 0 641 641 - 100.0% 641 641 641

2008 / 2 0 811 0 811 811 - 100.0% 811 811 811

2009 / 1 377 687 2 689 689 - 100.0% 689 689 689

2009 / 2 1,197 792 0 792 694 792 - 100.0% 792 - 100.0% 792 792 694 58.0% 66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 58.0% 792 66.1%

2010 / 1 1,630 1,033 0 1,033 962 1,033 - 100.0% 1,033 - 100.0% 1,033 1,033 962 59.0% 63.4% 63.4% 63.4% 63.4% 59.0% 1,033 63.4%

2010 / 2 1,804 997 80 1,077 1,046 1,077 - 100.0% 1,077 12.5% 87.5% 1,073 1,077 1,046 58.0% 59.7% 59.7% 59.5% 59.7% 58.0% 1,077 59.7%

2011 / 1 1,600 778 1 778 912 778 - 100.0% 778 25.0% 75.0% 812 778 912 57.0% 48.7% 48.7% 50.7% 48.7% 57.0% 778 48.7%

2011 / 2 1,580 783 25 808 885 808 - 100.0% 808 37.5% 62.5% 837 808 885 56.0% 51.1% 51.1% 52.9% 51.1% 56.0% 808 51.1%

2012 / 1 1,676 893 1 894 939 894 - 100.0% 894 50.0% 50.0% 916 894 922 56.0% 53.3% 53.3% 54.7% 53.3% 55.0% 916 54.6%

2012 / 2 1,785 814 3 817 999 818 0.2% 99.8% 818 62.5% 37.5% 931 817 982 56.0% 45.8% 45.8% 52.2% 45.8% 55.0% 932 52.2%

2013 / 1 1,942 744 22 767 1,088 787 2.6% 97.4% 794 75.0% 25.0% 1,012 767 1,088 56.0% 40.5% 40.9% 52.1% 39.5% 56.0% 1,013 52.1%

2013 / 2 2,030 926 24 950 1,137 1,040 8.7% 91.3% 1,049 87.5% 12.5% 1,125 950 1,137 56.0% 51.2% 51.7% 55.4% 46.8% 56.0% 1,125 55.4%

2014 / 1 1,853 562 108 670 1,056 880 23.9% 76.1% 922 100.0% - 1,056 670 1,037 57.0% 47.5% 49.8% 57.0% 36.2% 56.0% 1,056 57.0%

2014 / 2 1,940 101 275 376 1,125 634 40.6% 59.4% 833 - - - 376 1,106 58.0% 32.7% 43.0% 57.0% 1,125 58.0%

Total 19,406 60,252 546 60,798 10,843 61,378 9,798 61,424 60,798 10,771 62,491




Exhibit B.2.4.4b-2





Coverage: Property Damage

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

ELR Method

(prior trend)

IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 14,107 - - 14,107 - - -




1995 / 2 - - - Link Ratio Method - 728 - Link Ratio Method - 728 - - -



















2005 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - 379 - Link Ratio Method - 382 (2) - (2)









2009 / 2 (97) - - - - (97) Link Ratio Method - 792 66.1% (85) - - Link Ratio Method - 792 66.1% - - - -

2010 / 1 (71) - - - - (71) Link Ratio Method - 1,033 63.4% (55) - - Link Ratio Method - 1,033 63.4% - - - -

2010 / 2 (30) - - (4) - (30) Link Ratio Method - 1,077 59.7% (12) - - Link Ratio Method - 1,077 59.7% - - - -

2011 / 1 134 - - 33 - 134 Link Ratio Method - 778 48.7% 158 - - Link Ratio Method - 770 48.2% 8 - 8 0.5%

2011 / 2 77 - - 29 - 77 Link Ratio Method - 808 51.1% 111 - - Link Ratio Method - 790 50.0% 18 - 18 1.1%

2012 / 1 45 - - 22 - 28 ELR & LR Wtd Method 22 916 54.6% 45 (0) (0) ELR & LR Wtd Method 22 916 54.6% - - - -

2012 / 2 183 1 2 115 - 165 ELR & LR Wtd Method 115 932 52.2% 178 10 12 ELR & LR Wtd Method 115 936 52.5% (5) - (5) (0.3%)

2013 / 1 321 20 28 246 - 321 ELR & LR Wtd Method 246 1,013 52.1% 420 37 56 ELR & LR Wtd Method 324 1,011 52.0% 80 (78) 2 0.1%

2013 / 2 187 90 99 175 - 187 ELR & LR Wtd Method 175 1,125 55.4% 249 156 170 ELR & LR Wtd Method 237 1,145 56.4% 42 (62) (20) (1.0%)

2014 / 1 386 211 253 386 - 368 ELR Method 386 1,056 57.0% 500 244 322 ELR Method 500 1,057 57.0% 113 (114) (1) -

2014 / 2 749 1,125 58.0%

Total 1,134 322 381 1,002 - 1,081 1,693 62,491 1,508 446 559 1,198 61,380 242 (254) (12)

2013 / 2 & Prior 748 112 128 616 - 713 558 60,310 1,008 202 237 698 60,323 129 (140) (11)




Exhibit B.2.4.4c-1





Coverage: Direct Comp Property Damage

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

ELR

Method

(prior

trend) Ult

LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - - - - - - - -

1994 / 1 - - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1994 / 2 - 5,445 (0) 5,445 5,445 - 100.0% 5,445 5,445 5,445

1995 / 1 - 11,021 (0) 11,021 11,021 - 100.0% 11,021 11,021 11,021

1995 / 2 - 12,949 (0) 12,949 12,949 - 100.0% 12,949 12,949 12,949

1996 / 1 - 10,613 0 10,614 10,614 - 100.0% 10,614 10,614 10,614

1996 / 2 - 9,741 (0) 9,741 9,741 - 100.0% 9,741 9,741 9,741

1997 / 1 - 9,114 (0) 9,114 9,114 - 100.0% 9,114 9,114 9,114

1997 / 2 - 8,075 (0) 8,075 8,075 - 100.0% 8,075 8,075 8,075

1998 / 1 - 6,529 (0) 6,529 6,529 - 100.0% 6,529 6,529 6,529

1998 / 2 - 5,681 0 5,682 5,682 - 100.0% 5,682 5,682 5,682

1999 / 1 - 4,569 (0) 4,569 4,569 - 100.0% 4,569 4,569 4,569

1999 / 2 - 5,427 1 5,428 5,428 - 100.0% 5,428 5,428 5,428

2000 / 1 - 5,095 0 5,095 5,095 - 100.0% 5,095 5,095 5,095

2000 / 2 - 5,854 0 5,854 5,854 - 100.0% 5,854 5,854 5,854

2001 / 1 - 5,514 0 5,514 5,514 - 100.0% 5,514 5,514 5,514

2001 / 2 - 7,122 0 7,122 7,122 - 100.0% 7,122 7,122 7,122

2002 / 1 - 7,701 (0) 7,701 7,701 - 100.0% 7,701 7,701 7,701

2002 / 2 0 8,765 3 8,768 8,768 - 100.0% 8,768 8,768 8,768

2003 / 1 0 8,340 0 8,340 8,340 - 100.0% 8,340 8,340 8,340

2003 / 2 - 7,777 (0) 7,777 7,777 - 100.0% 7,777 7,777 7,777

2004 / 1 - 7,513 (0) 7,513 7,513 - 100.0% 7,513 7,513 7,513

2004 / 2 (0) 8,380 (0) 8,380 8,380 - 100.0% 8,380 8,380 8,380

2005 / 1 (0) 7,286 0 7,286 7,286 - 100.0% 7,286 7,286 7,286

2005 / 2 (0) 8,274 0 8,274 8,274 - 100.0% 8,274 8,274 8,274

2006 / 1 (1) 7,131 0 7,132 7,132 - 100.0% 7,132 7,132 7,132

2006 / 2 (10) 10,124 0 10,124 10,124 - 100.0% 10,124 10,124 10,124

2007 / 1 (46) 10,148 6 10,154 10,154 - 100.0% 10,154 10,154 10,154

2007 / 2 (64) 10,691 (0) 10,691 10,691 - 100.0% 10,691 10,691 10,691

2008 / 1 (44) 12,533 0 12,534 12,534 - 100.0% 12,534 12,534 12,534

2008 / 2 51 13,846 4 13,849 13,849 - 100.0% 13,849 13,849 13,849

2009 / 1 5,086 12,900 18 12,918 12,918 - 100.0% 12,918 12,918 12,918

2009 / 2 15,364 14,198 36 14,234 11,830 14,234 - 100.0% 14,234 - 100.0% 14,234 14,234 11,984 77.0% 92.6% 92.6% 92.6% 92.6% 78.0% 14,234 92.6%

2010 / 1 20,753 15,894 37 15,931 15,564 15,931 - 100.0% 15,931 - 100.0% 15,931 15,931 15,357 75.0% 76.8% 76.8% 76.8% 76.8% 74.0% 15,931 76.8%

2010 / 2 22,795 17,998 60 18,058 17,096 18,058 - 100.0% 18,058 12.5% 87.5% 17,938 18,058 17,552 75.0% 79.2% 79.2% 78.7% 79.2% 77.0% 18,058 79.2%

2011 / 1 21,162 14,457 16 14,473 15,448 14,473 - 100.0% 14,473 25.0% 75.0% 14,717 14,473 15,237 73.0% 68.4% 68.4% 69.5% 68.4% 72.0% 14,473 68.4%

2011 / 2 20,581 14,769 15 14,784 15,847 14,784 - 100.0% 14,784 37.5% 62.5% 15,182 14,784 16,053 77.0% 71.8% 71.8% 73.8% 71.8% 78.0% 14,784 71.8%

2012 / 1 21,098 13,881 22 13,903 15,824 13,903 - 100.0% 13,903 50.0% 50.0% 14,863 13,903 15,613 75.0% 65.9% 65.9% 70.4% 65.9% 74.0% 13,903 65.9%

2012 / 2 21,579 16,039 56 16,095 16,832 16,100 - 100.0% 16,100 62.5% 37.5% 16,557 16,095 17,048 78.0% 74.6% 74.6% 76.7% 74.6% 79.0% 16,095 74.6%

2013 / 1 21,340 15,463 118 15,582 16,005 15,574 (0.1%) 100.1% 15,574 75.0% 25.0% 15,897 15,582 15,791 75.0% 73.0% 73.0% 74.5% 73.0% 74.0% 15,582 73.0%

2013 / 2 21,572 18,349 55 18,404 16,826 18,382 (0.1%) 100.1% 18,384 87.5% 12.5% 17,021 18,404 16,826 78.0% 85.2% 85.2% 78.9% 85.3% 78.0% 18,384 85.2%

2014 / 1 20,114 15,594 157 15,751 15,287 15,770 0.1% 99.9% 15,769 100.0% - 15,287 15,751 14,885 76.0% 78.4% 78.4% 76.0% 78.3% 74.0% 15,769 78.4%

2014 / 2 20,192 12,698 3,123 15,820 16,154 16,862 6.2% 93.8% 16,818 - - - 15,820 16,154 80.0% 83.5% 83.3% 80.0% 16,154 80.0%

Total 231,523 423,500 3,727 427,227 172,714 428,263 174,028 411,820 427,227 172,499 427,559




Exhibit B.2.4.4c-2





Coverage: Direct Comp Property Damage

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

ELR Method

(prior trend)

IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - - - - - - - -

1994 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - - - Link Ratio Method - - - - -































2009 / 2 (2,404) - - - - (2,250) Link Ratio Method - 14,234 92.6% (2,604) - - Link Ratio Method - 14,435 93.9% (200) - (200) (1.3%)

2010 / 1 (366) - - - - (574) Link Ratio Method - 15,931 76.8% (778) - - Link Ratio Method - 15,927 76.7% 4 - 4 0.1%

2010 / 2 (962) - - (120) - (506) Link Ratio Method - 18,058 79.2% (740) - - Link Ratio Method - 18,064 79.2% (6) - (6) -

2011 / 1 975 - - 244 - 764 Link Ratio Method - 14,473 68.4% 538 - - Link Ratio Method - 14,487 68.5% (14) - (14) (0.1%)

2011 / 2 1,063 - - 399 - 1,269 Link Ratio Method - 14,784 71.8% 1,066 - - Link Ratio Method - 14,781 71.8% 2 - 2 -

2012 / 1 1,921 - - 961 - 1,710 Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 13,903 65.9% 1,484 1 2 Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 13,918 66.0% (15) - (15) (0.1%)

2012 / 2 737 5 5 462 - 952 Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 16,095 74.6% 707 (0) (0) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 16,125 74.7% (30) - (30) (0.1%)

2013 / 1 423 (8) (8) 315 - 209 Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 15,582 73.0% (14) (11) (11) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 15,592 73.1% (10) - (10) (0.1%)

2013 / 2 (1,578) (22) (20) (1,383) - (1,578) BF Method (20) 18,384 85.2% (1,785) (0) (0) BF Method - 18,398 85.3% 6 (20) (14) (0.1%)

2014 / 1 (464) 19 18 (464) - (866) BF Method 18 15,769 78.4% (1,156) 613 547 BF Method 547 16,401 81.5% (103) (529) (632) (3.1%)

2014 / 2 334 16,154 80.0%

Total (655) (6) (5) 413 - (869) 332 427,559 (3,282) 603 537 547 412,554 (601) (549) (1,150)

2013 / 2 & Prior (191) (25) (23) 877 - (3) (20) 395,636 (2,126) (10) (9) - 396,153 (498) (20) (518)




Exhibit B.3.1



Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Accident Benefits

RSP: Ontario

Life to Date

Accident YearEarned

Premium






Claims Expense


Claims Expense


[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]


2009 & prior 872,095 1,138,582 130.6% 54,340 6.2% 1,192,922 136.8% 40,352 4.6% 1,233,274 141.4% 94,692 10.9%

2010 115,164 218,809 190.0% 37,610 32.7% 256,419 222.7% 20,426 17.7% 276,845 240.4% 58,036 50.4%

2011 115,834 67,424 58.2% 35,051 30.3% 102,475 88.5% 17,856 15.4% 120,331 103.9% 52,907 45.7%

2012 129,016 50,230 38.9% 53,456 41.4% 103,686 80.4% 30,701 23.8% 134,387 104.2% 84,157 65.2%

2013 123,932 37,274 30.1% 46,163 37.2% 83,437 67.3% 57,267 46.2% 140,704 113.5% 103,430 83.5%

2014 102,777 9,968 9.7% 44,096 42.9% 54,064 52.6% 75,103 73.1% 129,167 125.7% 119,199 116.0%

TOTAL 1,458,818 1,522,287 104.4% 270,716 18.6% 1,793,003 122.9% 241,705 16.6% 2,034,708 139.5% 512,421 35.1%

2013 & prior 1,356,041 1,512,319 111.5% 226,620 16.7% 1,738,939 128.2% 166,602 12.3% 1,905,541 140.5% 393,222 29.0%


Accident YearEarned

Premium (LTD)










[15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]


2009 & prior 872,095 3,333 0.4% (4,522) (0.5%) (1,189) (0.1%) 3,783 0.4% 2,594 0.3% (739) (0.1%)

2010 115,164 3,807 3.3% (130) (0.1%) 3,677 3.2% 4,054 3.5% 7,731 6.7% 3,924 3.4%

2011 115,834 4,415 3.8% (3,499) (3.0%) 916 0.8% (5,344) (4.6%) (4,428) (3.8%) (8,843) (7.6%)

2012 129,016 5,866 4.5% (2,046) (1.6%) 3,820 3.0% (8,943) (6.9%) (5,123) (4.0%) (10,989) (8.5%)

2013 123,932 6,190 5.0% (3,891) (3.1%) 2,299 1.9% (8,085) (6.5%) (5,786) (4.7%) (11,976) (9.7%)

TOTAL 1,356,041 23,611 1.7% (14,088) (1.0%) 9,523 0.7% (14,535) (1.1%) (5,012) (0.4%) (28,623) (2.1%)



Unpaid








[29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]


2009 & prior 36,569 95,431 3,333 3.5% (1,189) (3.3%) 2,594 2.7%

2010 16,372 54,112 3,807 7.0% 3,677 22.5% 7,731 14.3%

2011 23,200 61,750 4,415 7.1% 916 3.9% (4,428) (7.2%)

2012 39,644 95,146 5,866 6.2% 3,820 9.6% (5,123) (5.4%)

2013 65,352 115,406 6,190 5.4% 2,299 3.5% (5,786) (5.0%)

TOTAL 181,137 421,845 23,611 5.6% 9,523 5.3% (5,012) (1.2%)



Exhibit B.3.2



Amounts in: $1,000s


RSP: Ontario






[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]


AY1993 & Prior 25,327 38,986 85 39,071 - 39,071 - - - - - - - - -

1994 62,264 95,276 5,288 100,564 - 100,564 161.5% 161.4% 160.7% 160.3% 160.2% 0.1% 60 1.3% 809

1995 84,997 103,939 3,151 107,090 - 107,090 126.0% 126.1% 126.1% 127.4% 127.4% (0.1%) (76) (1.4%) (1,190)

1996 78,201 71,792 2,840 74,632 - 74,632 95.4% 95.4% 95.4% 95.4% 95.3% - 6 0.1% 78

1997 56,830 38,501 155 38,656 96 38,752 68.2% 68.0% 68.0% 68.2% 68.2% 0.2% 107 - -

1998 34,874 28,127 820 28,947 192 29,139 83.6% 83.6% 83.7% 83.8% 83.8% - (16) (0.2%) (70)

1999 22,095 29,714 999 30,713 292 31,005 140.3% 140.8% 140.3% 140.6% 140.8% (0.5%) (105) (0.5%) (110)

2000 21,883 31,846 15 31,861 368 32,229 147.3% 148.2% 148.4% 148.7% 148.9% (0.9%) (207) (1.6%) (350)

2001 24,684 41,317 979 42,296 669 42,965 174.1% 173.8% 173.8% 174.3% 174.3% 0.3% 66 (0.2%) (49)

2002 35,582 52,293 1,276 53,569 1,095 54,664 153.6% 154.5% 154.8% 154.9% 155.0% (0.9%) (315) (1.4%) (498)

2003 46,841 50,422 993 51,415 1,296 52,711 112.5% 113.2% 113.4% 113.3% 113.5% (0.7%) (336) (1.0%) (468)

2004 57,005 49,953 1,072 51,025 1,634 52,659 92.4% 93.9% 94.2% 94.4% 95.1% (1.5%) (883) (2.7%) (1,539)

2005 53,507 44,855 1,303 46,158 2,129 48,287 90.2% 89.8% 89.8% 90.1% 90.0% 0.4% 253 0.2% 107

2006 54,961 66,663 6,127 72,790 3,827 76,617 139.4% 138.7% 138.8% 138.4% 138.8% 0.7% 367 0.6% 330

2007 59,159 71,736 4,494 76,230 4,478 80,708 136.4% 135.0% 133.2% 133.6% 134.3% 1.4% 845 2.1% 1,242

2008 72,990 127,294 10,387 137,681 9,374 147,055 201.5% 199.8% 200.4% 197.6% 197.3% 1.7% 1,257 4.2% 3,066

2009 80,895 195,868 14,356 210,224 14,902 225,126 278.3% 276.4% 274.0% 269.2% 269.5% 1.9% 1,571 8.8% 7,119

2010 115,164 218,809 37,610 256,419 20,426 276,845 240.4% 233.7% 235.0% 235.5% 236.8% 6.7% 7,731 3.6% 4,146

2011 115,834 67,424 35,051 102,475 17,856 120,331 103.9% 107.7% 106.5% 112.3% 118.0% (3.8%) (4,428) (14.1%) (16,333)

2012 129,016 50,230 53,456 103,686 30,701 134,387 104.2% 108.1% 107.8% 106.2% 106.3% (3.9%) (5,123) (2.1%) (2,709)

2013 123,932 37,274 46,163 83,437 57,267 140,704 113.5% 118.2% 118.2% 115.4% 114.7% (4.7%) (5,786) (1.2%) (1,487)

2014 102,777 9,968 44,096 54,064 75,103 129,167 125.7% 126.9% 121.5% 131.0% - - - **

TOTAL 1,458,818 1,522,287 270,716 1,793,003 241,705 2,034,708 139.5% 140.1% 140.0% 140.3% 141.1% (5,012) (7,906)

2013 & prior 1,356,041 1,512,319 226,620 1,738,939 166,602 1,905,541 140.5% 140.9% 140.7% 140.5% 141.1% (5,012) (7,906)






Exhibit B.3.3

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 2 111.0% 124.0% (13.0%)

2004 / 1 97.0% 109.0% (12.0%)

2004 / 2 116.0% 130.0% (14.0%)

2005 / 1 114.0% 129.0% (15.0%)

2005 / 2 142.0% 160.0% (18.0%)

2006 / 1 138.0% 158.0% (20.0%)

2006 / 2 169.0% 192.0% (23.0%)

2007 / 1 163.0% 187.0% (24.0%)

2007 / 2 199.0% 228.0% (29.0%)

2008 / 1 191.0% 221.0% (30.0%)

2008 / 2 227.0% 262.0% (35.0%)

2009 / 1 207.0% 242.0% (35.0%)

2009 / 2 234.0% 271.0% (37.0%)

2010 / 1 199.0% 235.0% (36.0%)

2010 / 2 115.0% 129.0% (14.0%)

2011 / 1 103.0% 114.0% (11.0%)


2012 / 2 117.0% 125.0% (8.0%)

2013 / 1 107.0% 114.0% (7.0%)

2013 / 2 127.0% 133.0% (6.0%)

2014 / 1 117.0% 122.0% (5.0%)

2014 / 2 135.0% 137.0% (2.0%)

2015 / 1 121.0% 124.0% (3.0%)

2015 / 2 140.0% 139.0% 1.0%

2016 / 1 126.0% 126.0% -

2016 / 2 145.0% 141.0% 4.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 2 25,340 20,558 57 21,271 83.9% 1.3031 1.0000 1.0000 33,020 1.5719 1.0000 1.0000 33,436 101.3% -

2004 / 1 28,254 20,975 1,051 22,825 80.8% 1.1928 1.0000 1.0000 33,701 1.6640 1.0000 1.0000 37,981 112.7% -

2004 / 2 28,750 28,942 529 30,716 106.8% 1.1926 1.0000 1.0000 34,288 1.3859 1.0000 1.0000 42,569 124.2% -

2005 / 1 27,379 19,575 330 20,748 75.8% 1.2397 1.0000 1.0000 33,942 1.4693 1.0000 1.0000 30,485 89.8% -

2005 / 2 26,127 25,263 809 27,285 104.4% 1.2889 1.0000 1.0000 33,674 1.2085 1.0000 1.0000 32,975 97.9% -

2006 / 1 26,051 23,800 1,641 26,633 102.2% 1.3176 1.0000 1.0000 34,325 1.2846 1.0000 1.0000 34,213 99.7% -

2006 / 2 28,911 42,167 5,071 49,617 171.6% 1.3422 1.0000 1.0000 38,805 1.0630 1.0000 1.0000 52,741 135.9% -

2007 / 1 29,310 32,980 2,417 37,135 126.7% 1.3621 1.0000 1.0000 39,923 1.1390 1.0000 1.0000 42,297 105.9% -

2007 / 2 29,849 38,570 2,050 42,728 143.1% 1.3799 1.0000 1.0000 41,190 0.9321 1.0000 1.0000 39,828 96.7% -

2008 / 1 36,056 58,385 4,539 66,324 183.9% 1.3827 1.0000 1.0000 49,856 0.9714 1.0000 1.0000 64,430 129.2% -

2008 / 2 36,933 68,509 6,726 79,474 215.2% 1.3630 1.0000 1.0000 50,340 0.8124 1.0000 1.0000 64,569 128.3% 0.4%

2009 / 1 38,048 86,304 4,675 96,136 252.7% 1.3094 1.0000 1.0000 49,821 0.8559 1.0000 1.0000 82,279 165.1% -

2009 / 2 42,847 107,770 12,643 127,419 297.4% 1.2231 1.0000 1.0000 52,405 0.7031 1.0000 1.0000 89,592 171.0% 0.4%

2010 / 1 52,330 136,271 15,528 161,107 307.9% 1.0982 1.0000 1.0000 57,468 0.7355 1.0000 1.0000 118,498 206.2% 0.3%

2010 / 2 62,835 78,731 22,212 108,007 171.9% 0.9885 1.0000 1.0000 62,113 1.1502 1.0000 1.0000 124,228 200.0% 0.3%

2011 / 1 57,281 35,563 20,409 62,199 108.6% 0.9747 1.0000 1.0000 55,833 1.2738 1.0000 1.0000 79,230 141.9% 14.2%

2011 / 2 58,553 27,446 18,141 62,560 106.8% 0.9679 1.0000 1.0000 56,675 1.1107 1.0000 1.0000 69,485 122.6% 13.9%

2012 / 1 64,073 22,418 23,693 63,128 98.5% 0.9449 1.0000 1.0000 60,541 1.2299 1.0000 1.0000 77,642 128.2% 14.2%

2012 / 2 64,944 21,946 31,809 76,382 117.6% 0.9400 1.0000 1.0000 61,051 1.0724 1.0000 1.0000 81,912 134.2% 14.2%

2013 / 1 63,860 18,350 21,614 68,468 107.2% 0.9475 1.0000 1.0000 60,506 1.1878 1.0000 1.0000 81,328 134.4% 14.2%

2013 / 2 60,085 12,734 28,440 78,022 129.9% 0.9844 1.0000 1.0000 59,149 1.0355 1.0000 1.0000 80,795 136.6% 14.2%

2014 / 1 52,410 5,070 22,705 63,811 121.8% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 52,410 1.1470 1.0000 1.0000 73,192 139.7% 14.2%

Total 940,226 932,328 247,088 1,391,996 148.0% 1.1178 1.0000 1.0000 1,051,036 1.0300 1.0000 1.0000 1,433,705 136.4% 100.2%



-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Accident Benefits



(100.0%)

(50.0%)

-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2



Exhibit B.3.3f

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: AccBen (indivis)

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 2 109.0% 122.0% (13.0%)

2004 / 1 95.0% 108.0% (13.0%)

2004 / 2 114.0% 129.0% (15.0%)

2005 / 1 113.0% 129.0% (16.0%)

2005 / 2 141.0% 160.0% (19.0%)

2006 / 1 137.0% 158.0% (21.0%)

2006 / 2 169.0% 193.0% (24.0%)

2007 / 1 163.0% 189.0% (26.0%)

2007 / 2 200.0% 230.0% (30.0%)

2008 / 1 191.0% 222.0% (31.0%)

2008 / 2 227.0% 263.0% (36.0%)

2009 / 1 208.0% 244.0% (36.0%)

2009 / 2 235.0% 273.0% (38.0%)

2010 / 1 200.0% 237.0% (37.0%)

2010 / 2 113.0% 127.0% (14.0%)

2011 / 1 101.0% 113.0% (12.0%)


2012 / 2 115.0% 123.0% (8.0%)

2013 / 1 105.0% 112.0% (7.0%)

2013 / 2 125.0% 131.0% (6.0%)

2014 / 1 115.0% 120.0% (5.0%)

2014 / 2 132.0% 135.0% (3.0%)

2015 / 1 119.0% 122.0% (3.0%)

2015 / 2 137.0% 137.0% -

2016 / 1 124.0% 124.0% -

2016 / 2 142.0% 139.0% 3.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 2 24,440 19,311 57 20,030 82.0% 1.3025 1.0000 1.0000 31,833 1.5736 1.0000 1.0000 31,519 99.0% -

2004 / 1 27,285 19,955 1,024 21,788 79.9% 1.1907 1.0000 1.0000 32,488 1.6599 1.0000 1.0000 36,166 111.3% -

2004 / 2 27,771 27,285 525 29,073 104.7% 1.1902 1.0000 1.0000 33,053 1.3769 1.0000 1.0000 40,031 121.1% -

2005 / 1 26,436 18,285 330 19,475 73.7% 1.2377 1.0000 1.0000 32,720 1.4509 1.0000 1.0000 28,256 86.4% -

2005 / 2 25,221 24,851 750 26,821 106.3% 1.2871 1.0000 1.0000 32,462 1.2027 1.0000 1.0000 32,258 99.4% -

2006 / 1 25,137 23,175 1,235 25,619 101.9% 1.3164 1.0000 1.0000 33,090 1.2662 1.0000 1.0000 32,439 98.0% -

2006 / 2 27,878 40,781 4,998 48,190 172.9% 1.3420 1.0000 1.0000 37,412 1.0487 1.0000 1.0000 50,536 135.1% -

2007 / 1 28,235 31,043 2,243 35,084 124.3% 1.3633 1.0000 1.0000 38,493 1.1033 1.0000 1.0000 38,708 100.6% -

2007 / 2 28,719 37,489 1,790 41,439 144.3% 1.3827 1.0000 1.0000 39,710 0.9131 1.0000 1.0000 37,838 95.3% -

2008 / 1 34,662 56,739 4,069 64,319 185.6% 1.3866 1.0000 1.0000 48,062 0.9599 1.0000 1.0000 61,739 128.5% -

2008 / 2 35,492 65,897 5,214 75,579 212.9% 1.3673 1.0000 1.0000 48,528 0.7940 1.0000 1.0000 60,010 123.7% -

2009 / 1 36,577 82,985 3,319 91,720 250.8% 1.3131 1.0000 1.0000 48,029 0.8341 1.0000 1.0000 76,503 159.3% -

2009 / 2 41,231 105,843 10,471 123,563 299.7% 1.2253 1.0000 1.0000 50,520 0.6895 1.0000 1.0000 85,197 168.6% -

2010 / 1 50,575 134,434 13,726 157,700 311.8% 1.0988 1.0000 1.0000 55,572 0.7239 1.0000 1.0000 114,159 205.4% -

2010 / 2 60,856 77,327 19,414 104,061 171.0% 0.9881 1.0000 1.0000 60,132 1.1517 1.0000 1.0000 119,847 199.3% -

2011 / 1 55,483 34,716 18,799 59,709 107.6% 0.9743 1.0000 1.0000 54,057 1.2752 1.0000 1.0000 76,141 140.9% 14.3%

2011 / 2 56,801 26,991 16,975 60,277 106.1% 0.9669 1.0000 1.0000 54,921 1.1118 1.0000 1.0000 67,016 122.0% 14.3%

2012 / 1 62,244 21,973 21,381 60,107 96.6% 0.9433 1.0000 1.0000 58,715 1.2310 1.0000 1.0000 73,992 126.0% 14.3%

2012 / 2 63,077 21,769 30,282 73,218 116.1% 0.9385 1.0000 1.0000 59,198 1.0732 1.0000 1.0000 78,577 132.7% 14.3%

2013 / 1 61,991 18,169 20,798 65,656 105.9% 0.9462 1.0000 1.0000 58,656 1.1883 1.0000 1.0000 78,019 133.0% 14.3%

2013 / 2 58,254 12,561 27,103 74,357 127.6% 0.9840 1.0000 1.0000 57,322 1.0360 1.0000 1.0000 77,034 134.4% 14.3%

2014 / 1 50,708 4,916 22,201 60,849 120.0% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 50,708 1.1470 1.0000 1.0000 69,794 137.6% 14.3%

Total 909,073 906,495 226,704 1,338,634 147.3% 1.1173 1.0000 1.0000 1,015,681 1.0203 1.0000 1.0000 1,365,779 134.5% 100.0%



-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - AccBen (indivis)



(100.0%)

(50.0%)

-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2



Exhibit B.3.3g

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: UA

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 2 177.0% 172.0% 5.0%

2004 / 1 148.0% 139.0% 9.0%

2004 / 2 169.0% 164.0% 5.0%

2005 / 1 153.0% 143.0% 10.0%

2005 / 2 179.0% 174.0% 5.0%

2006 / 1 160.0% 150.0% 10.0%

2006 / 2 181.0% 176.0% 5.0%

2007 / 1 157.0% 147.0% 10.0%

2007 / 2 175.0% 171.0% 4.0%

2008 / 1 199.0% 193.0% 6.0%

2008 / 2 222.0% 225.0% (3.0%)

2009 / 1 193.0% 187.0% 6.0%

2009 / 2 212.0% 214.0% (2.0%)

2010 / 1 176.0% 170.0% 6.0%

2010 / 2 187.0% 188.0% (1.0%)

2011 / 1 165.0% 160.0% 5.0%

2011 / 2 192.0% 193.0% (1.0%) Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2012 / 1 171.0% 166.0% 5.0%

2012 / 2 195.0% 196.0% (1.0%)

2013 / 1 174.0% 168.0% 6.0%

2013 / 2 201.0% 202.0% (1.0%)

2014 / 1 180.0% 174.0% 6.0%

2014 / 2 207.0% 208.0% (1.0%)

2015 / 1 185.0% 179.0% 6.0%

2015 / 2 212.0% 213.0% (1.0%)

2016 / 1 190.0% 183.0% 7.0%

2016 / 2 218.0% 219.0% (1.0%)



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 2 900 1,247 (0) 1,241 137.9% 1.3190 1.0000 1.0000 1,187 1.5448 1.0000 1.0000 1,917 161.5% -

2004 / 1 969 1,021 27 1,037 107.0% 1.2516 1.0000 1.0000 1,213 1.7500 1.0000 1.0000 1,815 149.6% -

2004 / 2 979 1,657 5 1,643 167.8% 1.2613 1.0000 1.0000 1,235 1.5448 1.0000 1.0000 2,538 205.5% -

2005 / 1 943 1,290 0 1,274 135.1% 1.2963 1.0000 1.0000 1,222 1.7500 1.0000 1.0000 2,229 182.4% -

2005 / 2 906 412 59 464 51.2% 1.3379 1.0000 1.0000 1,212 1.5448 1.0000 1.0000 717 59.2% -

2006 / 1 914 626 406 1,014 110.9% 1.3508 1.0000 1.0000 1,235 1.7500 1.0000 1.0000 1,774 143.6% -

2006 / 2 1,033 1,386 73 1,428 138.2% 1.3489 1.0000 1.0000 1,393 1.5448 1.0000 1.0000 2,205 158.3% -

2007 / 1 1,075 1,936 174 2,051 190.8% 1.3306 1.0000 1.0000 1,430 1.7500 1.0000 1.0000 3,589 251.0% -

2007 / 2 1,130 1,081 260 1,288 114.0% 1.3093 1.0000 1.0000 1,480 1.5448 1.0000 1.0000 1,990 134.5% -

2008 / 1 1,394 1,645 469 2,006 143.9% 1.2869 1.0000 1.0000 1,794 1.3417 1.0000 1.0000 2,691 150.0% -

2008 / 2 1,441 2,612 1,512 3,895 270.3% 1.2572 1.0000 1.0000 1,812 1.1704 1.0000 1.0000 4,559 251.6% 10.0%

2009 / 1 1,471 3,318 1,356 4,416 300.2% 1.2181 1.0000 1.0000 1,792 1.3078 1.0000 1.0000 5,776 322.3%

2009 / 2 1,616 1,927 2,172 3,855 238.6% 1.1667 1.0000 1.0000 1,885 1.1400 1.0000 1.0000 4,395 233.2% 10.0%

2010 / 1 1,755 1,837 1,803 3,408 194.2% 1.0805 1.0000 1.0000 1,896 1.2733 1.0000 1.0000 4,339 228.9% 10.0%

2010 / 2 1,979 1,404 2,798 3,946 199.4% 1.0010 1.0000 1.0000 1,981 1.1103 1.0000 1.0000 4,381 221.2% 10.0%

2011 / 1 1,798 847 1,611 2,490 138.5% 0.9879 1.0000 1.0000 1,776 1.2406 1.0000 1.0000 3,089 173.9% 10.0%

2011 / 2 1,752 455 1,166 2,283 130.3% 1.0010 1.0000 1.0000 1,754 1.0813 1.0000 1.0000 2,469 140.8%

2012 / 1 1,829 445 2,311 3,021 165.1% 0.9985 1.0000 1.0000 1,826 1.2085 1.0000 1.0000 3,650 199.9% 10.0%

2012 / 2 1,867 177 1,528 3,165 169.5% 0.9924 1.0000 1.0000 1,853 1.0538 1.0000 1.0000 3,335 180.0% 10.0%

2013 / 1 1,869 181 815 2,811 150.4% 0.9899 1.0000 1.0000 1,850 1.1771 1.0000 1.0000 3,309 178.9% 10.0%

2013 / 2 1,831 173 1,338 3,665 200.2% 0.9980 1.0000 1.0000 1,827 1.0262 1.0000 1.0000 3,761 205.9% 10.0%

2014 / 1 1,702 154 503 2,962 174.0% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1,702 1.1473 1.0000 1.0000 3,398 199.6% 10.0%

Total 31,153 25,833 20,384 53,362 171.3% 1.1349 1.0000 1.0000 35,355 1.2729 1.0000 1.0000 67,926 192.1% 100.0%



(20.0%)

30.0%

80.0%

130.0%

180.0%

230.0%

280.0%

330.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Uninsured Automobile



(150.0%)

(100.0%)

(50.0%)

-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2



Exhibit B.3.4.1






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

ELR

Method

(prior

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]

=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 25,327 38,986 84 39,071 39,071 39,071 39,071 39,071

1994 62,264 95,276 5,288 100,564 100,564 100,564 100,564 161.5% 161.5% 161.5% 100,564 161.5%

1995 84,997 103,939 3,151 107,090 107,090 107,090 107,090 126.0% 126.0% 126.0% 107,090 126.0%

1996 78,201 71,792 2,840 74,632 74,632 74,632 74,632 95.4% 95.4% 95.4% 74,632 95.4%

1997 56,830 38,501 156 38,656 38,753 38,753 38,656 68.2% 68.2% 68.0% 38,752 68.2%

1998 34,874 28,127 820 28,947 29,138 29,138 28,947 83.6% 83.6% 83.0% 29,139 83.6%

1999 22,095 29,714 999 30,713 31,005 31,005 30,713 140.3% 140.3% 139.0% 31,005 140.3%

2000 21,883 31,846 15 31,861 32,229 32,229 31,861 147.3% 147.3% 145.6% 32,229 147.3%

2001 24,684 41,317 979 42,296 42,964 42,964 42,296 174.1% 174.1% 171.4% 42,965 174.1%

2002 35,582 52,293 1,276 53,569 54,664 54,664 53,569 153.6% 153.6% 150.6% 54,664 153.6%

2003 46,841 50,422 993 51,415 52,711 52,711 51,415 112.5% 112.5% 109.8% 52,711 112.5%

2004 57,005 49,953 1,073 51,025 52,659 52,659 51,025 92.4% 92.4% 89.5% 52,659 92.4%

2005 53,507 44,855 1,303 46,158 48,287 48,287 46,158 90.2% 90.2% 86.3% 48,287 90.2%

2006 54,961 66,663 6,127 72,790 76,617 76,617 72,790 139.4% 139.4% 132.4% 76,617 139.4%

2007 59,159 71,736 4,494 76,230 80,707 80,707 76,230 136.4% 136.4% 128.9% 80,708 136.4%

2008 72,990 127,294 10,386 137,681 147,055 147,055 137,681 201.5% 201.5% 188.6% 147,055 201.5%

2009 80,895 195,868 14,357 210,224 225,127 225,127 210,224 278.3% 278.3% 259.9% 225,126 278.3%

2010 115,164 218,809 37,611 256,419 176,705 276,845 7.7% 92.3% 269,103 272,107 256,419 190,358 153.4% 240.4% 233.7% 236.3% 222.7% 165.3% 276,845 240.4%

2011 115,834 67,424 35,050 102,475 127,690 112,725 8.3% 91.7% 113,968 118,513 102,475 131,026 110.2% 97.3% 98.4% 102.3% 88.5% 113.1% 120,331 103.9%

2012 129,016 50,230 53,456 103,686 142,172 124,920 15.6% 84.4% 127,616 134,386 103,686 143,400 110.2% 96.8% 98.9% 104.2% 80.4% 111.1% 134,387 104.2%

2013 123,932 37,274 46,163 83,437 144,824 122,126 32.3% 67.7% 129,459 140,705 83,437 143,057 116.9% 98.5% 104.5% 113.5% 67.3% 115.4% 140,704 113.5%

2014 102,777 9,968 44,096 54,064 129,168 109,979 55.6% 44.4% 120,645 61,307 54,064 124,711 129,167 125.7%

Total 1,458,817 1,522,286 270,717 1,793,004 720,560 1,979,868 760,791 1,960,291 1,793,004 732,552 2,034,709




Exhibit B.3.4.2






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



MethodBF Method*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

ELR Method*LR Ratio


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 39,071 39,071 39,071 - 39,071 39,071 - 39,071 - - -

1994 100,564 100,564 100,564 N/A - 100,564 161.5% 100,504 N/A - 100,504 161.4% 60 - 60 0.1%

1995 107,090 107,090 107,090 N/A - 107,090 126.0% 107,166 N/A - 107,166 126.1% (76) - (76) (0.1%)

1996 74,632 74,632 74,632 N/A - 74,632 95.4% 74,626 N/A - 74,626 95.4% 6 - 6 -

1997 38,753 38,753 38,656 N/A 96 38,752 68.2% 38,645 N/A 149 38,645 68.0% 160 (53) 107 0.2%

1998 29,138 29,138 28,947 N/A 192 29,139 83.6% 29,155 N/A 244 29,155 83.6% 36 (52) (16) -

1999 31,005 31,005 30,713 N/A 292 31,005 140.3% 31,110 N/A 391 31,110 140.8% (6) (99) (105) (0.5%)

2000 32,229 32,229 31,861 N/A 368 32,229 147.3% 32,437 N/A 507 32,436 148.2% (68) (139) (207) (0.9%)

2001 42,964 42,964 42,296 N/A 669 42,965 174.1% 42,899 N/A 909 42,899 173.8% 306 (240) 66 0.3%

2002 54,664 54,664 53,569 N/A 1,095 54,664 153.6% 54,978 N/A 1,417 54,979 154.5% 7 (322) (315) (0.9%)

2003 52,711 52,711 51,415 N/A 1,296 52,711 112.5% 53,047 N/A 1,632 53,047 113.2% (1) (336) (337) (0.7%)

2004 52,659 52,659 51,025 N/A 1,634 52,659 92.4% 53,542 N/A 2,044 53,542 93.9% (472) (410) (882) (1.5%)

2005 48,287 48,287 46,158 N/A 2,129 48,287 90.2% 48,034 N/A 2,057 48,034 89.8% 181 72 253 0.4%

2006 76,617 76,617 72,790 N/A 3,827 76,617 139.4% 76,250 N/A 3,571 76,250 138.7% 111 256 367 0.7%

2007 80,707 80,707 76,230 N/A 4,478 80,708 136.4% 79,862 N/A 3,846 79,863 135.0% 213 632 845 1.4%

2008 147,055 147,055 137,681 N/A 9,374 147,055 201.5% 145,799 N/A 7,640 145,798 199.8% (478) 1,734 1,256 1.7%

2009 225,127 225,127 210,224 N/A 14,902 225,126 278.3% 223,554 N/A 12,162 223,555 276.4% (1,168) 2,740 1,572 1.9%

2010 176,705 276,845 269,103 272,107 256,419 190,358 N/A 20,426 276,845 240.4% 203,852 269,114 264,986 N/A 16,372 269,114 233.7% 3,677 4,054 7,731 6.7%

2011 127,690 112,725 113,968 118,513 102,475 131,026 N/A 17,856 120,331 103.9% 139,956 112,251 115,003 N/A 23,200 124,759 107.7% 916 (5,344) (4,428) (3.8%)

2012 142,172 124,920 127,616 134,386 103,686 143,400 N/A 30,701 134,387 104.2% 153,371 122,408 127,952 N/A 39,644 139,510 108.1% 3,820 (8,943) (5,123) (3.9%)

2013 144,824 122,126 129,459 140,705 83,437 143,057 N/A 57,267 140,704 113.5% 152,581 120,262 130,694 N/A 65,352 146,490 118.2% 2,300 (8,085) (5,785) (4.7%)

2014 129,168 109,979 120,645 61,307 54,064 124,711 N/A 75,103 129,167 125.7% 134,391 90,266 122,701 N/A 63,162 98,441 126.9% 18,785 11,941 30,726 (1.2%)

Total 720,560 1,979,868 760,791 1,960,291 1,793,004 732,552 241,705 2,034,709 784,152 1,944,983 761,337 244,299 2,008,993 28,309 (2,594) 25,715

2013 & Prior 591,392 1,869,889 640,147 1,898,984 1,738,940 607,841 166,602 1,905,542 649,761 1,854,716 638,636 181,137 1,910,552 9,524 (14,535) (5,011)




Exhibit B.3.4.3





2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3




Exhibit B.3.4.3




Accident Half Year

2014 / 22014 / 12013 / 22013 / 12012 / 22012 / 12011 / 22011 / 12010 / 22010 / 12009 / 22009 / 12008 / 22008 / 12007 / 22007 / 12006 / 22006 / 12005 / 22005 / 12004 / 22004 / 12003 / 22003 / 12002 / 22002 / 12001 / 22001 / 12000 / 22000 / 11999 / 21999 / 11998 / 21998 / 11997 / 21997 / 11996 / 21996 / 11995 / 21995 / 11994 / 2


2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3




Exhibit B.3.4.4f-1






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

ELR

Method

(prior

trend) Ult

LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 25,327 38,945 64 39,010 39,010 39,010 39,010 39,010

1994 / 1 25,506 42,944 441 43,384 43,384 - 100.0% 43,384 43,384 43,384

1994 / 2 36,758 34,681 4,277 38,959 38,959 - 100.0% 38,959 38,959 38,959

1995 / 1 41,493 8,932 446 9,378 9,378 - 100.0% 9,378 9,378 9,378

1995 / 2 43,505 - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1996 / 1 40,719 - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1996 / 2 37,482 - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1997 / 1 31,432 4,487 (0) 4,486 4,495 - 100.0% 4,495 4,486 4,494

1997 / 2 25,398 18,353 (1) 18,352 18,441 - 100.0% 18,441 18,352 18,440

1998 / 1 20,243 13,248 744 13,993 14,075 - 100.0% 14,075 13,993 14,076

1998 / 2 14,631 13,749 (1) 13,749 13,858 - 100.0% 13,858 13,749 13,858

1999 / 1 11,416 14,813 995 15,808 15,967 - 100.0% 15,967 15,808 15,967

1999 / 2 10,679 13,984 4 13,988 14,122 - 100.0% 14,122 13,988 14,121

2000 / 1 10,710 16,831 16 16,847 17,044 - 100.0% 17,044 16,847 17,043

2000 / 2 11,173 14,393 (0) 14,392 14,565 - 100.0% 14,565 14,392 14,564

2001 / 1 11,254 13,858 305 14,163 14,393 - 100.0% 14,393 14,163 14,393

2001 / 2 13,430 26,573 675 27,248 27,687 - 100.0% 27,687 27,248 27,687

2002 / 1 16,530 25,199 368 25,567 26,101 - 100.0% 26,101 25,567 26,101

2002 / 2 19,052 25,835 908 26,743 27,304 - 100.0% 27,304 26,743 27,304

2003 / 1 21,501 29,177 909 30,086 30,892 - 100.0% 30,892 30,086 30,892

2003 / 2 25,340 19,311 57 19,368 19,861 - 100.0% 19,861 19,368 19,861

2004 / 1 28,254 19,974 999 20,973 21,692 - 100.0% 21,692 20,973 21,692

2004 / 2 28,750 27,300 69 27,369 28,313 - 100.0% 28,313 27,369 28,313

2005 / 1 27,379 18,285 296 18,581 19,476 - 100.0% 19,476 18,581 19,476

2005 / 2 26,127 24,867 949 25,816 27,070 - 100.0% 27,070 25,816 27,070

2006 / 1 26,051 23,726 702 24,428 25,742 - 100.0% 25,742 24,428 25,743

2006 / 2 28,911 40,925 4,955 45,880 48,441 - 100.0% 48,441 45,880 48,441

2007 / 1 29,312 31,062 2,304 33,366 35,348 - 100.0% 35,348 33,366 35,348

2007 / 2 29,851 37,602 1,842 39,444 42,054 - 100.0% 42,054 39,444 42,055

2008 / 1 36,058 56,854 3,982 60,837 65,136 - 100.0% 65,136 60,837 65,136

2008 / 2 36,930 66,133 4,668 70,801 76,221 - 100.0% 76,221 70,801 76,221

2009 / 1 37,643 83,495 2,871 86,367 93,238 - 100.0% 93,238 86,367 93,239

2009 / 2 41,585 106,657 8,770 115,427 97,724 124,001 6.9% 93.1% 122,184 - 100.0% 124,001 115,427 106,041 235.0% 298.2% 293.8% 298.2% 277.6% 255.0% 124,000 298.2%

2010 / 1 50,575 135,969 14,913 150,882 101,149 163,224 7.6% 92.4% 158,530 - 100.0% 163,224 150,882 111,770 200.0% 322.7% 313.5% 322.7% 298.3% 221.0% 163,223 322.7%

2010 / 2 60,856 79,434 18,314 97,747 68,767 106,451 8.2% 91.8% 103,370 12.5% 87.5% 101,741 97,747 71,810 113.0% 174.9% 169.9% 167.2% 160.6% 118.0% 106,451 174.9%

2011 / 1 55,483 37,240 15,263 52,503 56,037 57,756 9.1% 90.9% 57,600 25.0% 75.0% 57,326 52,503 58,257 101.0% 104.1% 103.8% 103.3% 94.6% 105.0% 57,326 103.3%

2011 / 2 56,801 28,755 16,746 45,501 65,321 50,779 10.4% 89.6% 52,290 37.5% 62.5% 56,232 45,501 66,457 58,050 115.0% 89.4% 92.1% 99.0% 80.1% 117.0% 102.2% 58,050 102.2%

2012 / 1 62,244 24,318 20,816 45,133 62,866 52,806 14.5% 85.5% 54,268 50.0% 50.0% 57,836 45,133 64,111 101.0% 84.8% 87.2% 92.9% 72.5% 103.0% 57,836 92.9%

2012 / 2 63,076 25,142 28,665 53,807 72,538 67,059 19.8% 80.2% 68,142 62.5% 37.5% 70,483 53,807 72,538 115.0% 106.3% 108.0% 111.7% 85.3% 115.0% 70,483 111.7%

2013 / 1 61,989 21,265 19,030 40,296 65,089 56,156 28.2% 71.8% 58,679 75.0% 25.0% 62,856 40,296 65,089 105.0% 90.6% 94.7% 101.4% 65.0% 105.0% 62,856 101.4%

2013 / 2 58,242 15,587 24,831 40,418 72,803 61,008 33.7% 66.3% 64,989 87.5% 12.5% 71,329 40,418 71,056 125.0% 104.7% 111.6% 122.5% 69.4% 122.0% 71,328 122.5%

2014 / 1 50,649 7,855 22,916 30,770 58,247 52,372 41.2% 58.8% 54,795 100.0% - 58,247 30,770 56,727 115.0% 103.4% 108.2% 115.0% 60.8% 112.0% 58,246 115.0%

2014 / 2 48,698 1,862 20,285 22,147 64,281 54,163 59.1% 40.9% 60,144 - - - 22,147 61,359 132.0% 111.2% 123.5% 126.0% 64,281 132.0%

Total 1,439,042 1,289,624 244,391 1,534,015 784,822 1,718,038 854,990 1,695,537 1,534,015 805,214 1,766,347




Exhibit B.3.4.4f-2






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

ELR Method

(prior trend)

IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 39,010 - - 39,010 - - -









1998 / 1 83 83 - Link Ratio Method 83 14,076 116 Link Ratio Method 116 14,073 36 (33) 3







2001 / 2 439 439 - Link Ratio Method 439 27,687 608 Link Ratio Method 608 27,546 309 (169) 140






2004 / 2 944 944 - Link Ratio Method 944 28,313 1,264 Link Ratio Method 1,264 29,073 (440) (320) (760)

2005 / 1 895 895 - Link Ratio Method 895 19,476 860 Link Ratio Method 860 19,475 (34) 35 1

2005 / 2 1,254 1,254 - Link Ratio Method 1,254 27,070 1,220 Link Ratio Method 1,220 26,821 215 34 249






2008 / 2 5,420 5,420 - Link Ratio Method 5,420 76,221 4,468 Link Ratio Method 4,468 75,579 (310) 952 642

2009 / 1 6,872 6,872 - Link Ratio Method 6,872 93,239 5,415 Link Ratio Method 5,415 91,720 62 1,457 1,519

2009 / 2 (17,704) 8,573 6,757 8,573 - (9,387) Link Ratio Method 8,573 124,000 298.2% (2,788) 7,249 6,660 Link Ratio Method 7,249 123,563 297.1% (887) 1,324 437 1.1%

2010 / 1 (49,733) 12,341 7,648 12,341 - (39,112) Link Ratio Method 12,341 163,223 322.7% (28,297) 9,540 7,251 Link Ratio Method 9,540 157,700 311.8% 2,723 2,801 5,524 10.9%

2010 / 2 (28,980) 8,704 5,623 3,993 - (25,937) Link Ratio Method 8,704 106,451 174.9% (19,454) 7,320 5,436 Link Ratio Method 7,320 104,061 171.0% 1,007 1,384 2,391 3.9%

2011 / 1 3,534 5,253 5,096 4,823 - 5,753 ELR & LR Wtd Method 4,823 57,326 103.3% 9,181 5,200 5,552 ELR & LR Wtd Method 6,195 59,709 107.6% (1,011) (1,372) (2,383) (4.3%)

2011 / 2 19,820 5,278 6,789 10,731 - 20,956 12,549 User Defined 2 12,549 58,050 102.2% 27,035 5,587 8,006 User Defined 2 16,311 60,277 106.1% 1,535 (3,762) (2,227) (3.9%)






2014 / 2 42,134 64,281 132.0%

Total 48,055 152,007 122,361 183,670 - 71,369 232,332 1,766,347 137,791 148,510 135,116 210,029 1,709,041 12,855 (19,831) (6,976)

2013 / 2 & Prior 20,579 130,406 98,336 156,193 - 45,412 162,722 1,643,819 104,059 123,311 105,807 176,297 1,648,192 9,202 (13,575) (4,373)




Exhibit B.3.4.4g-1





Coverage: Uninsured Automobile

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

ELR

Method

(prior

trend) Ult

LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - 41 20 61 61 61 61 61

1994 / 1 - - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1994 / 2 - 17,651 570 18,221 18,221 - 100.0% 18,221 18,221 18,221

1995 / 1 - 40,876 77 40,953 40,953 - 100.0% 40,953 40,953 40,953

1995 / 2 - 54,132 2,627 56,759 56,759 - 100.0% 56,759 56,759 56,759

1996 / 1 - 34,439 (1) 34,437 34,437 - 100.0% 34,437 34,437 34,437

1996 / 2 - 37,353 2,841 40,195 40,195 - 100.0% 40,195 40,195 40,195

1997 / 1 - 11,829 157 11,986 11,986 - 100.0% 11,986 11,986 11,986

1997 / 2 - 3,832 (0) 3,832 3,832 - 100.0% 3,832 3,832 3,832

1998 / 1 - 629 77 705 705 - 100.0% 705 705 705

1998 / 2 - 500 (0) 500 500 - 100.0% 500 500 500

1999 / 1 - 484 (0) 484 484 - 100.0% 484 484 484

1999 / 2 - 432 0 432 432 - 100.0% 432 432 432

2000 / 1 - 180 (0) 180 180 - 100.0% 180 180 180

2000 / 2 - 441 0 441 441 - 100.0% 441 441 441

2001 / 1 - 428 - 428 428 - 100.0% 428 428 428

2001 / 2 - 457 (0) 457 457 - 100.0% 457 457 457

2002 / 1 - 866 (0) 866 866 - 100.0% 866 866 866

2002 / 2 0 393 (0) 393 393 - 100.0% 393 393 393

2003 / 1 0 687 27 714 714 - 100.0% 714 714 714

2003 / 2 - 1,247 (0) 1,247 1,243 - 100.0% 1,243 1,247 1,244

2004 / 1 - 1,021 0 1,021 1,014 - 100.0% 1,014 1,021 1,014

2004 / 2 (0) 1,657 5 1,662 1,640 - 100.0% 1,640 1,662 1,640

2005 / 1 (0) 1,290 0 1,290 1,276 - 100.0% 1,276 1,290 1,276

2005 / 2 (0) 413 58 471 465 - 100.0% 465 471 465

2006 / 1 (0) 626 406 1,031 1,012 - 100.0% 1,012 1,031 1,012

2006 / 2 (0) 1,386 65 1,451 1,421 - 100.0% 1,421 1,451 1,421

2007 / 1 (2) 1,941 168 2,109 2,044 - 100.0% 2,044 2,109 2,044

2007 / 2 (2) 1,132 180 1,312 1,261 - 100.0% 1,261 1,312 1,262

2008 / 1 (2) 1,647 356 2,003 1,902 - 100.0% 1,902 2,003 1,902

2008 / 2 3 2,659 1,380 4,040 3,796 - 100.0% 3,796 4,040 3,796

2009 / 1 405 3,573 922 4,495 4,233 - 100.0% 4,233 4,495 4,233

2009 / 2 1,262 2,142 1,793 3,936 2,676 3,654 (7.7%) 107.7% 3,730 - 100.0% 3,654 3,936 2,726 212.0% 289.5% 295.5% 289.5% 311.8% 216.0% 3,655 289.5%

2010 / 1 1,755 1,890 1,636 3,526 3,089 3,251 (8.5%) 108.5% 3,265 - 100.0% 3,251 3,526 3,018 176.0% 185.3% 186.0% 185.3% 201.0% 172.0% 3,251 185.3%

2010 / 2 1,979 1,515 2,748 4,263 3,700 3,919 (8.8%) 108.8% 3,938 12.5% 87.5% 3,892 4,263 3,759 187.0% 198.1% 199.1% 196.7% 215.5% 190.0% 3,919 198.1%

2011 / 1 1,798 883 1,981 2,864 2,967 2,657 (7.8%) 107.8% 2,633 25.0% 75.0% 2,735 2,864 2,895 165.0% 147.8% 146.4% 152.1% 159.2% 161.0% 2,735 152.1%

2011 / 2 1,752 546 1,061 1,607 3,364 1,533 (4.8%) 104.8% 1,445 37.5% 62.5% 2,220 1,607 3,417 192.0% 87.5% 82.5% 126.7% 91.7% 195.0% 2,220 126.7%

2012 / 1 1,829 494 2,138 2,632 3,127 2,658 1.0% 99.0% 2,662 50.0% 50.0% 2,893 2,632 3,054 171.0% 145.3% 145.6% 158.2% 143.9% 167.0% 2,893 158.2%

2012 / 2 1,867 275 1,838 2,114 3,641 2,397 11.8% 88.2% 2,544 62.5% 37.5% 3,174 2,114 3,697 195.0% 128.4% 136.2% 170.0% 113.2% 198.0% 3,175 170.0%

2013 / 1 1,869 250 932 1,182 3,252 1,925 38.6% 61.4% 2,437 75.0% 25.0% 2,920 1,182 3,178 174.0% 103.0% 130.4% 156.2% 63.2% 170.0% 2,921 156.3%

2013 / 2 1,831 171 1,370 1,542 3,680 3,037 49.2% 50.8% 3,354 87.5% 12.5% 3,600 1,542 3,735 201.0% 165.9% 183.2% 196.6% 84.2% 204.0% 3,600 196.6%

2014 / 1 1,700 162 641 803 3,060 2,024 60.3% 39.7% 2,649 100.0% - 3,060 803 2,992 180.0% 119.1% 155.8% 180.0% 47.2% 176.0% 3,060 180.0%

2014 / 2 1,730 90 254 344 3,580 1,420 75.8% 24.2% 3,057 - - - 344 3,632 207.0% 82.1% 176.7% 210.0% 3,580 207.0%

Total 19,774 232,663 26,326 258,989 36,138 261,830 31,715 264,754 258,989 36,105 268,362




Exhibit B.3.4.4g-2





Coverage: Uninsured Automobile

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

ELR Method

(prior trend)

IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 61 - - 61 - - -



















2003 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - 714 (1) Link Ratio Method (1) 713 - 1 1

2003 / 2 (3) (3) - Link Ratio Method (3) 1,244 (6) Link Ratio Method (6) 1,241 - 3 3

2004 / 1 (7) (7) - Link Ratio Method (7) 1,014 (10) Link Ratio Method (10) 1,037 (26) 3 (23)

2004 / 2 (22) (22) - Link Ratio Method (22) 1,640 (19) Link Ratio Method (19) 1,643 - (3) (3)

2005 / 1 (14) (14) - Link Ratio Method (14) 1,276 (16) Link Ratio Method (16) 1,274 - 2 2

2005 / 2 (6) (6) - Link Ratio Method (6) 465 (7) Link Ratio Method (7) 464 - 1 1

2006 / 1 (19) (19) - Link Ratio Method (19) 1,012 (18) Link Ratio Method (18) 1,014 - (1) (1)


2007 / 1 (65) (65) - Link Ratio Method (65) 2,044 (60) Link Ratio Method (60) 2,051 (2) (5) (7)





2009 / 2 (1,260) (281) (206) (281) - (1,209) Link Ratio Method (281) 3,655 289.5% (1,398) (244) (171) Link Ratio Method (244) 3,855 305.4% (164) (37) (201) (15.9%)

2010 / 1 (438) (275) (262) (275) - (508) Link Ratio Method (275) 3,251 185.3% (656) (232) (203) Link Ratio Method (232) 3,408 194.2% (113) (43) (156) (8.9%)

2010 / 2 (564) (344) (325) (372) - (504) Link Ratio Method (344) 3,919 198.1% (482) (256) (241) Link Ratio Method (256) 3,946 199.4% 61 (88) (27) (1.3%)

2011 / 1 104 (206) (230) (129) - 32 ELR & LR Wtd Method (129) 2,735 152.1% 420 (98) (119) ELR & LR Wtd Method 32 2,490 138.4% 406 (161) 245 13.7%

2011 / 2 1,757 (74) (162) 613 - 1,810 ELR & LR Wtd Method 613 2,220 126.7% 1,761 3 5 ELR & LR Wtd Method 662 2,283 130.3% (14) (49) (63) (3.6%)

2012 / 1 496 26 30 261 - 422 ELR & LR Wtd Method 261 2,893 158.2% 279 249 252 ELR & LR Wtd Method 264 3,021 165.2% (125) (3) (128) (7.0%)

2012 / 2 1,527 283 430 1,061 - 1,584 ELR & LR Wtd Method 1,061 3,175 170.0% 1,955 635 993 ELR & LR Wtd Method 1,460 3,165 169.5% 409 (399) 10 0.5%

2013 / 1 2,071 743 1,255 1,739 - 1,996 ELR & LR Wtd Method 1,739 2,921 156.3% 2,144 829 1,426 ELR & LR Wtd Method 1,815 2,811 150.4% 185 (76) 109 5.9%

2013 / 2 2,138 1,496 1,812 2,058 - 2,193 ELR & LR Wtd Method 2,058 3,600 196.6% 2,189 1,921 2,071 ELR & LR Wtd Method 2,155 3,665 200.2% 31 (97) (66) (3.6%)

2014 / 1 2,257 1,221 1,846 2,257 - 2,189 ELR & LR Wtd Method 2,257 3,060 180.0% 2,304 1,502 2,060 ELR & LR Wtd Method 2,304 2,962 174.0% 145 (47) 98 6.0%

2014 / 2 3,236 3,580 207.0%

Total 8,090 1,765 4,190 6,109 - 8,005 9,373 268,362 8,515 3,493 6,073 7,144 265,322 467 (1,007) (540)

2013 / 2 & Prior 5,832 544 2,343 3,851 - 5,816 3,880 261,722 6,211 1,991 4,013 4,840 262,360 322 (960) (638)




Exhibit B.4.1



Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Other Coverages

RSP: Ontario

Life to Date

Accident YearEarned

Premium






Claims Expense


Claims Expense


[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]


2009 & prior 667,378 565,510 84.7% 1,122 0.2% 566,632 84.9% (15) - 566,617 84.9% 1,107 0.2%

2010 52,950 45,186 85.3% 913 1.7% 46,099 87.1% (2) - 46,097 87.1% 911 1.7%

2011 46,452 41,420 89.2% 1,843 4.0% 43,263 93.1% 18 - 43,281 93.2% 1,861 4.0%

2012 46,022 41,059 89.2% 1,642 3.6% 42,701 92.8% 99 0.2% 42,800 93.0% 1,741 3.8%

2013 44,746 46,252 103.4% 965 2.2% 47,217 105.5% 673 1.5% 47,890 107.0% 1,638 3.7%

2014 42,171 42,855 101.6% 5,422 12.9% 48,277 114.5% 2,174 5.2% 50,451 119.6% 7,596 18.0%

TOTAL 899,719 782,282 86.9% 11,907 1.3% 794,189 88.3% 2,947 0.3% 797,136 88.6% 14,854 1.7%

2013 & prior 857,548 739,427 86.2% 6,485 0.8% 745,912 87.0% 773 0.1% 746,685 87.1% 7,258 0.8%


Accident YearEarned

Premium (LTD)










[15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]


2009 & prior 667,378 252 - (121) - 131 - 14 - 145 - (107) -

2010 52,950 8 - (43) (0.1%) (35) (0.1%) 16 - (19) - (27) (0.1%)

2011 46,452 148 0.3% 126 0.3% 274 0.6% (1) - 273 0.6% 125 0.3%

2012 46,022 70 0.2% (61) (0.1%) 9 - (88) (0.2%) (79) (0.2%) (149) (0.3%)

2013 44,746 43 0.1% (137) (0.3%) (94) (0.2%) 21 - (73) (0.2%) (116) (0.3%)

TOTAL 857,548 521 0.1% (236) - 285 - (38) - 247 - (274) -



Unpaid








[29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]


2009 & prior (29) 1,214 252 20.8% 131 (451.7%) 145 11.9%

2010 (18) 938 8 0.9% (35) 194.4% (19) (2.0%)

2011 19 1,736 148 8.5% 274 1,442.1% 273 15.7%

2012 187 1,890 70 3.7% 9 4.8% (79) (4.2%)

2013 652 1,754 43 2.5% (94) (14.4%) (73) (4.2%)

TOTAL 811 7,532 521 6.9% 285 35.1% 247 3.3%



Exhibit B.4.2



Amounts in: $1,000s


RSP: Ontario






[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]


AY1993 & Prior 23,911 31,668 - 31,668 - 31,668 - - - - - - - - -

1994 54,937 56,909 - 56,909 - 56,909 103.6% 103.6% 103.6% 103.6% 103.6% - - - -

1995 64,357 55,351 - 55,351 - 55,351 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% - - - -

1996 54,603 44,131 - 44,131 - 44,131 80.8% 80.8% 80.8% 80.8% 80.8% - - - -

1997 42,917 33,072 5 33,077 - 33,077 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% - - - -

1998 30,222 23,388 10 23,398 - 23,398 77.4% 77.4% 77.4% 77.4% 77.4% - (2) - -

1999 20,100 18,099 1 18,100 - 18,100 90.0% 90.1% 90.1% 90.1% 90.1% (0.1%) (1) (0.1%) (20)

2000 20,106 21,498 - 21,498 - 21,498 106.9% 106.9% 106.9% 106.9% 106.9% - - - -

2001 23,724 22,306 - 22,306 - 22,306 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% - - - -

2002 33,552 30,176 - 30,176 - 30,176 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% - - - -

2003 40,126 30,726 - 30,726 - 30,726 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% - 1 - -

2004 42,358 25,711 - 25,711 (1) 25,710 60.7% 60.8% 60.8% 60.8% 60.8% (0.1%) (32) (0.1%) (42)

2005 38,642 26,223 - 26,223 5 26,228 67.9% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% (0.1%) (48) (0.1%) (39)

2006 39,128 28,049 48 28,097 (1) 28,096 71.8% 71.9% 71.9% 71.9% 71.9% (0.1%) (53) (0.1%) (39)

2007 43,387 35,541 62 35,603 (9) 35,594 82.0% 82.1% 82.2% 82.2% 82.2% (0.1%) (48) (0.2%) (87)

2008 47,738 42,097 450 42,547 (1) 42,546 89.1% 89.1% 89.2% 89.3% 89.3% - (11) (0.2%) (95)

2009 47,570 40,565 546 41,111 (8) 41,103 86.4% 85.7% 85.6% 85.5% 85.4% 0.7% 339 1.0% 476

2010 52,950 45,186 913 46,099 (2) 46,097 87.1% 87.1% 87.3% 87.5% 87.6% - (19) (0.5%) (265)

2011 46,452 41,420 1,843 43,263 18 43,281 93.2% 92.6% 92.7% 91.6% 91.4% 0.6% 273 1.8% 836

2012 46,022 41,059 1,642 42,701 99 42,800 93.0% 93.2% 93.3% 92.7% 92.3% (0.2%) (79) 0.7% 322

2013 44,746 46,252 965 47,217 673 47,890 107.0% 107.2% 106.7% 102.7% 102.3% (0.2%) (73) 4.7% 2,103

2014 42,171 42,855 5,422 48,277 2,174 50,451 119.6% 114.0% 113.8% 92.0% - - - **

TOTAL 899,719 782,282 11,907 794,189 2,947 797,136 88.6% 88.0% 87.7% 86.8% 86.7% 247 3,150

2013 & prior 857,548 739,427 6,485 745,912 773 746,685 87.1% 87.0% 87.1% 86.8% 86.7% 247 3,150






Exhibit B.4.3

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 2 84.0% 82.0% 2.0%

2004 / 1 69.0% 68.0% 1.0%

2004 / 2 76.0% 75.0% 1.0%

2005 / 1 75.0% 74.0% 1.0%

2005 / 2 86.0% 84.0% 2.0%

2006 / 1 83.0% 81.0% 2.0%

2006 / 2 90.0% 87.0% 3.0%

2007 / 1 85.0% 83.0% 2.0%

2007 / 2 92.0% 89.0% 3.0%

2008 / 1 87.0% 85.0% 2.0%

2008 / 2 92.0% 90.0% 2.0%

2009 / 1 87.0% 85.0% 2.0%

2009 / 2 91.0% 89.0% 2.0%

2010 / 1 87.0% 86.0% 1.0%

2010 / 2 93.0% 94.0% (1.0%)

2011 / 1 90.0% 90.0% -


2012 / 2 105.0% 101.0% 4.0%

2013 / 1 100.0% 96.0% 4.0%

2013 / 2 107.0% 101.0% 6.0%

2014 / 1 101.0% 95.0% 6.0%

2014 / 2 108.0% 101.0% 7.0%

2015 / 1 103.0% 96.0% 7.0%

2015 / 2 111.0% 102.0% 9.0%

2016 / 1 106.0% 96.0% 10.0%

2016 / 2 114.0% 103.0% 11.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 2 20,841 15,350 0 15,349 73.6% 0.7431 1.0000 1.0000 15,487 0.9669 1.0000 1.0000 14,839 95.8% -

2004 / 1 21,255 12,276 27 12,303 57.9% 0.7254 1.0000 1.0000 15,419 1.1374 1.0000 1.0000 13,993 90.8% -

2004 / 2 21,103 13,435 4 13,440 63.7% 0.7490 1.0000 1.0000 15,805 1.0575 1.0000 1.0000 14,213 89.9% -

2005 / 1 20,018 12,281 14 12,301 61.4% 0.7827 1.0000 1.0000 15,669 1.1356 1.0000 1.0000 13,968 89.1% -

2005 / 2 18,624 13,941 28 13,975 75.0% 0.8107 1.0000 1.0000 15,099 1.0120 1.0000 1.0000 14,143 93.7% -

2006 / 1 18,244 11,278 25 11,303 62.0% 0.8292 1.0000 1.0000 15,128 1.0680 1.0000 1.0000 12,071 79.8% -

2006 / 2 20,884 16,771 78 16,846 80.7% 0.8447 1.0000 1.0000 17,642 1.0084 1.0000 1.0000 16,988 96.3% -

2007 / 1 21,592 17,390 34 17,420 80.7% 0.8536 1.0000 1.0000 18,431 1.0833 1.0000 1.0000 18,871 102.4% -

2007 / 2 21,797 18,152 80 18,222 83.6% 0.8668 1.0000 1.0000 18,894 1.0226 1.0000 1.0000 18,633 98.6% -

2008 / 1 23,634 20,523 35 20,557 87.0% 0.8673 1.0000 1.0000 20,498 1.0559 1.0000 1.0000 21,706 105.9% -

2008 / 2 24,104 21,527 484 22,000 91.3% 0.8661 1.0000 1.0000 20,876 1.0119 1.0000 1.0000 22,262 106.6% 6.3%

2009 / 1 23,650 19,245 192 19,430 82.2% 0.8708 1.0000 1.0000 20,594 1.0700 1.0000 1.0000 20,791 101.0% 6.3%

2009 / 2 23,919 21,114 223 21,333 89.2% 0.8894 1.0000 1.0000 21,273 1.0485 1.0000 1.0000 22,367 105.1% 8.7%

2010 / 1 25,891 21,360 494 21,842 84.4% 0.9257 1.0000 1.0000 23,968 1.1481 1.0000 1.0000 25,077 104.6% 8.7%

2010 / 2 27,059 23,818 462 24,274 89.7% 0.9479 1.0000 1.0000 25,648 1.0998 1.0000 1.0000 26,696 104.1% 8.7%

2011 / 1 23,873 20,436 810 21,253 89.0% 0.9606 1.0000 1.0000 22,933 1.1581 1.0000 1.0000 24,611 107.3% 8.7%

2011 / 2 22,579 20,836 906 21,755 96.4% 0.9884 1.0000 1.0000 22,318 1.0768 1.0000 1.0000 23,427 105.0% 8.7%

2012 / 1 23,075 18,980 1,278 20,287 87.9% 1.0032 1.0000 1.0000 23,148 1.1371 1.0000 1.0000 23,068 99.7% 8.7%

2012 / 2 22,947 22,008 425 22,593 98.5% 1.0167 1.0000 1.0000 23,330 1.0483 1.0000 1.0000 23,684 101.5% 8.7%

2013 / 1 22,433 20,894 351 21,558 96.1% 1.0177 1.0000 1.0000 22,830 1.0996 1.0000 1.0000 23,707 103.8% 8.7%

2013 / 2 22,318 25,315 751 26,405 118.3% 1.0091 1.0000 1.0000 22,520 1.0227 1.0000 1.0000 27,004 119.9% 8.7%

2014 / 1 20,874 22,930 1,130 24,815 118.9% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 20,874 1.0717 1.0000 1.0000 26,593 127.4% 8.7%

Total 490,714 409,862 7,831 419,259 85.4% 0.8934 1.0000 1.0000 438,384 1.0703 1.0000 1.0000 448,712 102.4% 99.4%



(5.0%)

10.0%

25.0%

40.0%

55.0%

70.0%

85.0%

100.0%

115.0%

130.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Other Coverages



(25.0%)

(20.0%)

(15.0%)

(10.0%)

(5.0%)

-

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2



Exhibit B.4.3a

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: UM

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 2 51.0% 43.0% 8.0%

2004 / 1 43.0% 40.0% 3.0%

2004 / 2 55.0% 59.0% (4.0%)

2005 / 1 46.0% 43.0% 3.0%

2005 / 2 57.0% 62.0% (5.0%)

2006 / 1 47.0% 44.0% 3.0%

2006 / 2 58.0% 63.0% (5.0%)

2007 / 1 48.0% 45.0% 3.0%

2007 / 2 59.0% 63.0% (4.0%)

2008 / 1 48.0% 45.0% 3.0%

2008 / 2 59.0% 63.0% (4.0%)

2009 / 1 47.0% 44.0% 3.0%

2009 / 2 58.0% 62.0% (4.0%)

2010 / 1 47.0% 43.0% 4.0%

2010 / 2 58.0% 66.0% (8.0%)

2011 / 1 48.0% 46.0% 2.0%

2011 / 2 59.0% 64.0% (5.0%) Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2012 / 1 50.0% 46.0% 4.0%

2012 / 2 63.0% 65.0% (2.0%)

2013 / 1 52.0% 46.0% 6.0%

2013 / 2 64.0% 64.0% -

2014 / 1 53.0% 45.0% 8.0%

2014 / 2 67.0% 64.0% 3.0%

2015 / 1 55.0% 45.0% 10.0%

2015 / 2 70.0% 64.0% 6.0%

2016 / 1 58.0% 45.0% 13.0%

2016 / 2 73.0% 64.0% 9.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 2 758 674 (0) 673 88.7% 1.2621 1.0000 1.0000 957 1.6744 1.0000 1.0000 1,126 117.7% -

2004 / 1 769 224 26 249 32.4% 1.2483 1.0000 1.0000 960 1.9459 1.0000 1.0000 485 50.5% -

2004 / 2 792 345 - 346 43.7% 1.2517 1.0000 1.0000 991 1.5374 1.0000 1.0000 532 53.7% -

2005 / 1 774 559 (0) 565 73.0% 1.2630 1.0000 1.0000 978 1.8581 1.0000 1.0000 1,050 107.4% -

2005 / 2 746 266 3 274 36.8% 1.2595 1.0000 1.0000 940 1.4719 1.0000 1.0000 404 43.0% -

2006 / 1 754 20 - 20 2.7% 1.2466 1.0000 1.0000 940 1.7814 1.0000 1.0000 36 3.8% -

2006 / 2 893 201 48 246 27.5% 1.2306 1.0000 1.0000 1,099 1.4095 1.0000 1.0000 346 31.5% -

2007 / 1 940 294 10 300 31.9% 1.2174 1.0000 1.0000 1,144 1.7041 1.0000 1.0000 511 44.7% -

2007 / 2 983 661 60 710 72.3% 1.1950 1.0000 1.0000 1,175 1.3500 1.0000 1.0000 959 81.6% -

2008 / 1 1,084 112 0 111 10.3% 1.1682 1.0000 1.0000 1,266 1.6364 1.0000 1.0000 182 14.4% -

2008 / 2 1,134 138 481 608 53.6% 1.1375 1.0000 1.0000 1,290 1.2954 1.0000 1.0000 787 61.0% 8.3%

2009 / 1 1,146 76 169 239 20.8% 1.1077 1.0000 1.0000 1,269 1.5681 1.0000 1.0000 374 29.5% 8.3%

2009 / 2 1,229 146 102 244 19.8% 1.0725 1.0000 1.0000 1,318 1.2396 1.0000 1.0000 302 22.9% 8.3%

2010 / 1 1,315 405 451 844 64.2% 1.0454 1.0000 1.0000 1,375 1.5000 1.0000 1.0000 1,266 92.1% 8.3%

2010 / 2 1,416 249 440 683 48.2% 1.0317 1.0000 1.0000 1,461 1.1884 1.0000 1.0000 812 55.6% 8.3%

2011 / 1 1,227 77 733 815 66.5% 1.0185 1.0000 1.0000 1,250 1.4352 1.0000 1.0000 1,170 93.6% 8.3%

2011 / 2 1,201 45 848 913 76.0% 1.0028 1.0000 1.0000 1,204 1.1383 1.0000 1.0000 1,039 86.3% 8.3%

2012 / 1 1,256 33 1,202 1,276 101.6% 1.0185 1.0000 1.0000 1,279 1.3758 1.0000 1.0000 1,756 137.3% 8.3%

2012 / 2 1,313 18 314 513 39.1% 1.0225 1.0000 1.0000 1,343 1.0909 1.0000 1.0000 559 41.6% 8.3%

2013 / 1 1,355 43 174 553 40.8% 1.0151 1.0000 1.0000 1,375 1.3171 1.0000 1.0000 729 53.0% 8.3%

2013 / 2 1,294 12 489 844 65.2% 1.0022 1.0000 1.0000 1,297 1.0447 1.0000 1.0000 882 68.0% 8.3%

2014 / 1 1,155 - 257 520 45.0% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1,155 1.2613 1.0000 1.0000 655 56.7% 8.3%

Total 23,534 4,600 5,805 11,546 49.1% 1.1076 1.0000 1.0000 26,066 1.3826 1.0000 1.0000 15,962 61.2% 100.0%



(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Underinsured Motorist



(80.0%)

(60.0%)

(40.0%)

(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2



Exhibit B.4.3b

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: CL

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 2 83.0% 82.0% 1.0%

2004 / 1 78.0% 77.0% 1.0%

2004 / 2 83.0% 81.0% 2.0%

2005 / 1 82.0% 81.0% 1.0%

2005 / 2 88.0% 86.0% 2.0%

2006 / 1 86.0% 85.0% 1.0%

2006 / 2 91.0% 89.0% 2.0%

2007 / 1 88.0% 87.0% 1.0%

2007 / 2 93.0% 91.0% 2.0%

2008 / 1 91.0% 89.0% 2.0%

2008 / 2 94.0% 92.0% 2.0%

2009 / 1 91.0% 89.0% 2.0%

2009 / 2 92.0% 90.0% 2.0%

2010 / 1 92.0% 91.0% 1.0%

2010 / 2 96.0% 97.0% (1.0%)

2011 / 1 95.0% 95.0% -


2012 / 2 109.0% 105.0% 4.0%

2013 / 1 107.0% 102.0% 5.0%

2013 / 2 112.0% 105.0% 7.0%

2014 / 1 108.0% 101.0% 7.0%

2014 / 2 114.0% 105.0% 9.0%

2015 / 1 111.0% 101.0% 10.0%

2015 / 2 117.0% 106.0% 11.0%

2016 / 1 114.0% 102.0% 12.0%

2016 / 2 121.0% 106.0% 15.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 2 13,998 9,902 (0) 9,902 70.7% 0.7738 1.0000 1.0000 10,832 1.0598 1.0000 1.0000 10,494 96.9% -

2004 / 1 14,394 8,820 0 8,820 61.3% 0.7487 1.0000 1.0000 10,777 1.0998 1.0000 1.0000 9,700 90.0% -

2004 / 2 14,448 9,750 2 9,753 67.5% 0.7649 1.0000 1.0000 11,051 1.0562 1.0000 1.0000 10,301 93.2% -

2005 / 1 13,746 9,179 8 9,186 66.8% 0.7939 1.0000 1.0000 10,913 1.1042 1.0000 1.0000 10,143 92.9% -

2005 / 2 12,856 10,168 20 10,188 79.2% 0.8158 1.0000 1.0000 10,488 1.0606 1.0000 1.0000 10,805 103.0% -

2006 / 1 12,655 8,698 20 8,718 68.9% 0.8328 1.0000 1.0000 10,539 1.1033 1.0000 1.0000 9,619 91.3% -

2006 / 2 14,576 12,194 28 12,222 83.8% 0.8453 1.0000 1.0000 12,321 1.0575 1.0000 1.0000 12,925 104.9% -

2007 / 1 15,117 13,717 17 13,733 90.8% 0.8505 1.0000 1.0000 12,857 1.1007 1.0000 1.0000 15,116 117.6% -

2007 / 2 15,346 13,359 17 13,377 87.2% 0.8604 1.0000 1.0000 13,204 1.0547 1.0000 1.0000 14,108 106.8% -

2008 / 1 16,617 15,030 35 15,065 90.7% 0.8612 1.0000 1.0000 14,311 1.0811 1.0000 1.0000 16,287 113.8% -

2008 / 2 16,984 16,563 3 16,566 97.5% 0.8594 1.0000 1.0000 14,596 1.0411 1.0000 1.0000 17,247 118.2% 8.3%

2009 / 1 16,621 14,460 22 14,482 87.1% 0.8644 1.0000 1.0000 14,367 1.0882 1.0000 1.0000 15,760 109.7% 8.3%

2009 / 2 16,816 15,989 93 16,082 95.6% 0.8836 1.0000 1.0000 14,859 1.0945 1.0000 1.0000 17,602 118.5% 8.3%

2010 / 1 18,901 16,600 20 16,620 87.9% 0.9204 1.0000 1.0000 17,396 1.1365 1.0000 1.0000 18,889 108.6% 8.3%

2010 / 2 19,780 18,560 19 18,579 93.9% 0.9445 1.0000 1.0000 18,682 1.1224 1.0000 1.0000 20,853 111.6% 8.3%

2011 / 1 17,585 15,896 26 15,922 90.5% 0.9607 1.0000 1.0000 16,894 1.1538 1.0000 1.0000 18,370 108.7% 8.3%

2011 / 2 16,595 16,734 29 16,756 101.0% 0.9916 1.0000 1.0000 16,456 1.0916 1.0000 1.0000 18,291 111.2% 8.3%

2012 / 1 17,011 14,998 75 15,056 88.5% 1.0042 1.0000 1.0000 17,082 1.1209 1.0000 1.0000 16,876 98.8% 8.3%

2012 / 2 16,901 17,278 52 17,295 102.3% 1.0166 1.0000 1.0000 17,182 1.0600 1.0000 1.0000 18,333 106.7% 8.3%

2013 / 1 16,390 17,025 152 17,135 104.5% 1.0170 1.0000 1.0000 16,669 1.0878 1.0000 1.0000 18,639 111.8% 8.3%

2013 / 2 16,462 19,553 240 19,750 120.0% 1.0092 1.0000 1.0000 16,613 1.0283 1.0000 1.0000 20,309 122.2% 8.3%

2014 / 1 15,530 19,187 681 20,133 129.6% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 15,530 1.0568 1.0000 1.0000 21,276 137.0% 8.3%

Total 349,329 313,660 1,559 315,341 90.3% 0.8978 1.0000 1.0000 313,619 1.0844 1.0000 1.0000 341,943 109.0% 100.0%



(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Collision (w All Perils)



(30.0%) (25.0%) (20.0%) (15.0%) (10.0%)

(5.0%) -

5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2



Exhibit B.4.3c

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: CM

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 2 89.0% 86.0% 3.0%

2004 / 1 51.0% 50.0% 1.0%

2004 / 2 63.0% 61.0% 2.0%

2005 / 1 63.0% 61.0% 2.0%

2005 / 2 87.0% 83.0% 4.0%

2006 / 1 79.0% 77.0% 2.0%

2006 / 2 91.0% 87.0% 4.0%

2007 / 1 83.0% 80.0% 3.0%

2007 / 2 95.0% 90.0% 5.0%

2008 / 1 84.0% 81.0% 3.0%

2008 / 2 94.0% 89.0% 5.0%

2009 / 1 84.0% 80.0% 4.0%

2009 / 2 96.0% 90.0% 6.0%

2010 / 1 81.0% 79.0% 2.0%

2010 / 2 93.0% 90.0% 3.0%

2011 / 1 83.0% 82.0% 1.0%


2012 / 2 100.0% 99.0% 1.0%

2013 / 1 90.0% 90.0% -

2013 / 2 100.0% 99.0% 1.0%

2014 / 1 88.0% 89.0% (1.0%)

2014 / 2 99.0% 99.0% -

2015 / 1 88.0% 90.0% (2.0%)

2015 / 2 99.0% 100.0% (1.0%)

2016 / 1 89.0% 90.0% (1.0%)

2016 / 2 99.0% 101.0% (2.0%)



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 2 6,085 4,774 0 4,774 78.5% 0.6077 1.0000 1.0000 3,698 0.6744 1.0000 1.0000 3,219 87.0% -

2004 / 1 6,092 3,232 1 3,233 53.1% 0.6044 1.0000 1.0000 3,682 1.1776 1.0000 1.0000 3,808 103.4% -

2004 / 2 5,863 3,339 1 3,341 57.0% 0.6419 1.0000 1.0000 3,763 1.0117 1.0000 1.0000 3,380 89.8% -

2005 / 1 5,498 2,544 6 2,550 46.4% 0.6872 1.0000 1.0000 3,778 1.0884 1.0000 1.0000 2,775 73.5% -

2005 / 2 5,022 3,507 5 3,512 69.9% 0.7309 1.0000 1.0000 3,671 0.8352 1.0000 1.0000 2,934 79.9% -

2006 / 1 4,835 2,560 4 2,564 53.0% 0.7547 1.0000 1.0000 3,649 0.9424 1.0000 1.0000 2,416 66.2% -

2006 / 2 5,415 4,376 3 4,379 80.9% 0.7796 1.0000 1.0000 4,222 0.8488 1.0000 1.0000 3,717 88.0% -

2007 / 1 5,535 3,380 7 3,387 61.2% 0.8004 1.0000 1.0000 4,430 0.9578 1.0000 1.0000 3,244 73.2% -

2007 / 2 5,468 4,132 3 4,135 75.6% 0.8258 1.0000 1.0000 4,515 0.8624 1.0000 1.0000 3,566 79.0% -

2008 / 1 5,933 5,380 0 5,381 90.7% 0.8295 1.0000 1.0000 4,921 0.9734 1.0000 1.0000 5,237 106.4% -

2008 / 2 5,986 4,826 0 4,826 80.6% 0.8336 1.0000 1.0000 4,990 0.8761 1.0000 1.0000 4,228 84.7% -

2009 / 1 5,883 4,710 0 4,710 80.1% 0.8428 1.0000 1.0000 4,958 0.9889 1.0000 1.0000 4,657 93.9% -

2009 / 2 5,874 4,979 28 5,007 85.2% 0.8675 1.0000 1.0000 5,096 0.8914 1.0000 1.0000 4,463 87.6% 10.0%

2010 / 1 5,675 4,355 23 4,378 77.1% 0.9158 1.0000 1.0000 5,197 1.1243 1.0000 1.0000 4,922 94.7% 10.0%

2010 / 2 5,863 5,009 3 5,012 85.5% 0.9390 1.0000 1.0000 5,505 1.0039 1.0000 1.0000 5,031 91.4% 10.0%

2011 / 1 5,061 4,464 52 4,516 89.2% 0.9463 1.0000 1.0000 4,789 1.1230 1.0000 1.0000 5,071 105.9% 10.0%

2011 / 2 4,783 4,057 29 4,086 85.4% 0.9738 1.0000 1.0000 4,658 1.0026 1.0000 1.0000 4,097 88.0% 10.0%

2012 / 1 4,808 3,949 2 3,955 82.3% 0.9956 1.0000 1.0000 4,787 1.1217 1.0000 1.0000 4,436 92.7% 10.0%

2012 / 2 4,733 4,712 59 4,785 101.1% 1.0153 1.0000 1.0000 4,805 1.0016 1.0000 1.0000 4,792 99.7% 10.0%

2013 / 1 4,688 3,826 25 3,870 82.6% 1.0210 1.0000 1.0000 4,786 1.1210 1.0000 1.0000 4,339 90.7% 10.0%

2013 / 2 4,562 5,750 22 5,810 127.4% 1.0105 1.0000 1.0000 4,610 1.0005 1.0000 1.0000 5,813 126.1% 10.0%

2014 / 1 4,189 3,743 193 4,162 99.4% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 4,189 1.1199 1.0000 1.0000 4,662 111.3% 10.0%

Total 117,851 91,602 467 92,373 78.4% 0.8375 1.0000 1.0000 98,699 0.9831 1.0000 1.0000 90,807 92.0% 100.0%



-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

RSP: Ontario - Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)



(40.0%)

(30.0%)

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

-

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

'03H2

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2



Exhibit B.4.4.1






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

ELR

Method

(prior

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]

=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 23,911 31,668 - 31,668 31,668 31,668 31,668 31,668

1994 54,937 56,909 1 56,909 56,909 56,909 56,909 103.6% 103.6% 103.6% 56,909 103.6%

1995 64,357 55,351 (0) 55,351 55,351 55,351 55,351 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% 55,351 86.0%

1996 54,603 44,131 (0) 44,131 44,131 44,131 44,131 80.8% 80.8% 80.8% 44,131 80.8%

1997 42,917 33,072 5 33,077 33,077 33,077 33,077 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 33,077 77.1%

1998 30,222 23,388 9 23,398 23,398 23,398 23,398 77.4% 77.4% 77.4% 23,398 77.4%

1999 20,100 18,099 2 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 90.1% 90.1% 90.1% 18,100 90.1%

2000 20,106 21,498 (0) 21,498 21,498 21,498 21,498 106.9% 106.9% 106.9% 21,498 106.9%

2001 23,724 22,306 (0) 22,306 22,306 22,306 22,306 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% 22,306 94.0%

2002 33,552 30,176 (0) 30,176 30,176 30,176 30,176 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% 30,176 89.9%

2003 40,126 30,726 0 30,726 30,727 30,727 30,726 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% 30,726 76.6%

2004 42,358 25,711 (0) 25,711 25,710 25,710 25,711 60.7% 60.7% 60.7% 25,710 60.7%

2005 38,642 26,223 0 26,223 26,228 26,228 26,223 67.9% 67.9% 67.9% 26,228 67.9%

2006 39,128 28,049 48 28,097 28,096 28,096 28,097 71.8% 71.8% 71.8% 28,096 71.8%

2007 43,387 35,541 62 35,603 35,594 35,594 35,603 82.0% 82.0% 82.1% 35,594 82.0%

2008 47,738 42,097 450 42,547 42,546 42,546 42,547 89.1% 89.1% 89.1% 42,546 89.1%

2009 47,570 40,565 546 41,111 41,103 41,103 41,111 86.4% 86.4% 86.4% 41,103 86.4%

2010 52,950 45,186 913 46,099 47,866 46,097 - 100.0% 46,097 46,224 46,099 48,819 90.4% 87.1% 87.1% 87.3% 87.1% 92.2% 46,097 87.1%

2011 46,452 41,420 1,843 43,263 44,055 43,289 (1.1%) 101.1% 43,281 43,560 43,263 44,859 94.8% 93.2% 93.2% 93.8% 93.1% 96.6% 43,281 93.2%

2012 46,022 41,059 1,642 42,701 46,193 42,779 0.6% 99.4% 42,799 44,664 42,701 46,291 100.4% 93.0% 93.0% 97.0% 92.8% 100.6% 42,800 93.0%

2013 44,746 46,252 964 47,217 46,284 47,731 (3.6%) 103.6% 47,782 46,321 47,217 45,368 103.4% 106.7% 106.8% 103.5% 105.5% 101.4% 47,890 107.0%

2014 42,171 42,855 5,421 48,277 44,177 50,193 (2.3%) 102.3% 50,330 21,046 48,277 42,706 50,451 119.6%

Total 899,720 782,282 11,906 794,189 228,575 796,705 230,288 768,432 794,189 228,043 797,136




Exhibit B.4.4.2






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



MethodBF Method*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

ELR Method*LR Ratio


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 31,668 31,668 31,668 - 31,668 31,668 - 31,668 - - -

1994 56,909 56,909 56,909 N/A - 56,909 103.6% 56,909 N/A - 56,909 103.6% - - - -

1995 55,351 55,351 55,351 N/A - 55,351 86.0% 55,351 N/A - 55,351 86.0% (1) - (1) -

1996 44,131 44,131 44,131 N/A - 44,131 80.8% 44,131 N/A - 44,131 80.8% - - - -

1997 33,077 33,077 33,077 N/A - 33,077 77.1% 33,077 N/A - 33,077 77.1% - - - -

1998 23,398 23,398 23,398 N/A - 23,398 77.4% 23,400 N/A - 23,400 77.4% (2) - (2) -

1999 18,100 18,100 18,100 N/A - 18,100 90.1% 18,101 N/A - 18,101 90.1% - - - -

2000 21,498 21,498 21,498 N/A - 21,498 106.9% 21,498 N/A - 21,498 106.9% - - - -

2001 22,306 22,306 22,306 N/A - 22,306 94.0% 22,306 N/A - 22,306 94.0% - - - -

2002 30,176 30,176 30,176 N/A - 30,176 89.9% 30,176 N/A - 30,176 89.9% - - - -

2003 30,727 30,727 30,726 N/A - 30,726 76.6% 30,726 N/A (1) 30,725 76.6% - 1 1 -

2004 25,710 25,710 25,711 N/A (1) 25,710 60.7% 25,743 N/A 1 25,742 60.8% (31) (2) (33) (0.1%)

2005 26,228 26,228 26,223 N/A 5 26,228 67.9% 26,276 N/A 11 26,276 68.0% (42) (6) (48) (0.1%)

2006 28,096 28,096 28,097 N/A (1) 28,096 71.8% 28,149 N/A (3) 28,149 71.9% (54) 2 (52) (0.1%)

2007 35,594 35,594 35,603 N/A (9) 35,594 82.0% 35,642 N/A (15) 35,642 82.1% (53) 6 (47) (0.1%)

2008 42,546 42,546 42,547 N/A (1) 42,546 89.1% 42,557 N/A (12) 42,557 89.1% (22) 11 (11) -

2009 41,103 41,103 41,111 N/A (8) 41,103 86.4% 40,764 N/A (10) 40,764 85.7% 337 2 339 0.7%

2010 47,866 46,097 46,097 46,224 46,099 48,819 N/A (2) 46,097 87.1% 47,646 46,116 46,117 N/A (18) 46,116 87.1% (35) 16 (19) -

2011 44,055 43,289 43,281 43,560 43,263 44,859 N/A 18 43,281 93.2% 43,612 43,015 43,008 N/A 19 43,008 92.6% 274 (1) 273 0.6%

2012 46,193 42,779 42,799 44,664 42,701 46,291 N/A 99 42,800 93.0% 45,057 42,843 42,877 N/A 187 42,879 93.2% 9 (88) (79) (0.2%)

2013 46,284 47,731 47,782 46,321 47,217 45,368 N/A 673 47,890 107.0% 44,190 47,853 47,896 N/A 652 47,963 107.2% (94) 21 (73) (0.2%)

2014 44,177 50,193 50,330 21,046 48,277 42,706 N/A 2,174 50,451 119.6% 41,599 47,273 47,016 N/A 1,178 35,715 114.0% 13,739 996 14,735 5.6%

Total 228,575 796,705 230,288 768,432 794,189 228,043 2,947 797,136 222,105 793,572 226,915 1,989 782,153 14,025 958 14,983

2013 & Prior 184,397 746,512 179,958 747,386 745,912 185,337 773 746,685 180,506 746,299 179,899 811 746,437 286 (38) 248




Exhibit B.4.4.3





2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3




Exhibit B.4.4.3




Accident Half Year

2014 / 22014 / 12013 / 22013 / 12012 / 22012 / 12011 / 22011 / 12010 / 22010 / 12009 / 22009 / 12008 / 22008 / 12007 / 22007 / 12006 / 22006 / 12005 / 22005 / 12004 / 22004 / 12003 / 22003 / 12002 / 22002 / 12001 / 22001 / 12000 / 22000 / 11999 / 21999 / 11998 / 21998 / 11997 / 21997 / 11996 / 21996 / 11995 / 21995 / 11994 / 2


2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2014-Q3




Exhibit B.4.4.4a-1





Coverage: Underinsured Motorist

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR*

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR*

ELR

Method

(no trend

change)

Ult LR*

User

Defined 2

Ult LR*

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - 767 - 767 767 767 767 767

1994 / 1 - 60 - 60 60 - 100.0% 60 60 60

1994 / 2 - 119 0 119 119 - 100.0% 119 119 119

1995 / 1 - 60 - 60 60 - 100.0% 60 60 60

1995 / 2 - 90 - 90 90 - 100.0% 90 90 90

1996 / 1 - - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1996 / 2 - 7 (0) 7 7 - 100.0% 7 7 7

1997 / 1 - 13 - 13 13 - 100.0% 13 13 13

1997 / 2 - 565 - 565 565 - 100.0% 565 565 565

1998 / 1 - 131 (0) 131 131 - 100.0% 131 131 131

1998 / 2 - 52 - 52 52 - 100.0% 52 52 52

1999 / 1 - 7 - 7 7 - 100.0% 7 7 7

1999 / 2 - 106 - 106 106 - 100.0% 106 106 106

2000 / 1 - 151 (0) 151 151 - 100.0% 151 151 151

2000 / 2 - 597 0 597 597 - 100.0% 597 597 597

2001 / 1 - 35 - 35 35 - 100.0% 35 35 35

2001 / 2 - 39 - 39 39 - 100.0% 39 39 39

2002 / 1 - 138 - 138 138 - 100.0% 138 138 138

2002 / 2 0 666 (0) 666 666 - 100.0% 666 666 666

2003 / 1 0 215 - 215 215 - 100.0% 215 215 215

2003 / 2 - 674 (0) 674 674 - 100.0% 674 674 674

2004 / 1 - 224 - 224 223 - 100.0% 223 224 223

2004 / 2 (0) 345 - 345 345 - 100.0% 345 345 345

2005 / 1 (0) 559 (0) 559 562 - 100.0% 562 559 562

2005 / 2 0 266 (0) 266 269 - 100.0% 269 266 268

2006 / 1 (0) 20 - 20 21 - 100.0% 21 20 20

2006 / 2 (1) 201 48 250 248 - 100.0% 248 250 249

2007 / 1 (2) 294 (0) 294 290 - 100.0% 290 294 290

2007 / 2 (3) 661 60 720 715 - 100.0% 715 720 715

2008 / 1 (2) 112 0 112 112 - 100.0% 112 112 111

2008 / 2 1 185 447 632 632 - 100.0% 632 632 632

2009 / 1 306 121 317 438 432 - 100.0% 432 438 433

2009 / 2 975 306 102 407 566 405 (0.7%) 100.7% 404 - 100.0% 405 407 605 58.0% 41.5% 41.4% 41.5% 41.8% 62.0% 404 41.5%

2010 / 1 1,315 408 453 861 618 860 (0.1%) 100.1% 860 - 100.0% 860 861 579 47.0% 65.4% 65.4% 65.4% 65.5% 44.0% 860 65.4%

2010 / 2 1,416 251 395 647 821 645 (0.2%) 100.2% 645 12.5% 87.5% 667 647 949 58.0% 45.6% 45.6% 47.1% 45.7% 67.0% 646 45.6%

2011 / 1 1,227 79 779 859 589 863 0.5% 99.5% 862 25.0% 75.0% 794 859 577 48.0% 70.3% 70.2% 64.8% 70.0% 47.0% 862 70.2%

2011 / 2 1,201 59 956 1,015 708 1,037 2.1% 97.9% 1,030 37.5% 62.5% 914 1,015 780 59.0% 86.4% 85.8% 76.1% 84.6% 65.0% 1,030 85.8%

2012 / 1 1,256 60 1,118 1,178 628 1,217 3.2% 96.8% 1,198 50.0% 50.0% 923 1,178 590 50.0% 96.9% 95.4% 73.5% 93.8% 47.0% 1,198 95.4%

2012 / 2 1,313 28 378 406 827 454 10.7% 89.3% 494 62.5% 37.5% 687 406 866 63.0% 34.6% 37.7% 52.4% 30.9% 66.0% 495 37.7%

2013 / 1 1,355 55 166 221 705 323 31.6% 68.4% 444 75.0% 25.0% 609 221 623 52.0% 23.8% 32.7% 45.0% 16.3% 46.0% 609 44.9%

2013 / 2 1,294 13 545 559 828 976 42.8% 57.2% 913 87.5% 12.5% 847 559 841 64.0% 75.4% 70.5% 65.4% 43.2% 65.0% 847 65.4%

2014 / 1 1,153 0 265 265 611 569 53.4% 46.6% 592 100.0% - 611 265 530 53.0% 49.4% 51.3% 53.0% 23.0% 46.0% 611 53.0%

2014 / 2 1,156 10 81 92 775 368 75.1% 24.9% 673 - - - 92 752 67.0% 31.8% 58.2% 65.0% 775 67.0%

Total 13,959 8,753 6,111 14,863 7,676 16,059 8,114 15,658 14,863 7,692 16,678




Exhibit B.4.4.4a-2





Coverage: Underinsured Motorist

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

ELR Method

(prior trend)

IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 767 - - 767 - - -



















2003 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - 215 0 Link Ratio Method - 215 - - -

2003 / 2 0 0 - Link Ratio Method - 674 (1) Link Ratio Method (1) 673 - 1 1

2004 / 1 (1) (1) - Link Ratio Method (1) 223 (0) Link Ratio Method - 249 (26) (1) (27)

2004 / 2 (0) (0) - Link Ratio Method - 345 1 Link Ratio Method 1 346 - (1) (1)

2005 / 1 3 3 - Link Ratio Method 3 562 6 Link Ratio Method 6 565 - (3) (3)

2005 / 2 2 2 - Link Ratio Method 2 268 5 Link Ratio Method 5 274 (3) (3) (6)

2006 / 1 0 0 - Link Ratio Method - 20 0 Link Ratio Method - 20 - - -

2006 / 2 (1) (1) - Link Ratio Method (1) 249 (3) Link Ratio Method (3) 246 1 2 3

2007 / 1 (4) (4) - Link Ratio Method (4) 290 (5) Link Ratio Method (5) 300 (10) 1 (9)

2007 / 2 (5) (5) - Link Ratio Method (5) 715 (10) Link Ratio Method (10) 710 - 5 5

2008 / 1 (1) (1) - Link Ratio Method (1) 111 (1) Link Ratio Method (1) 111 - - -

2008 / 2 (0) (0) - Link Ratio Method - 632 (11) Link Ratio Method (11) 608 13 11 24

2009 / 1 (5) (5) - Link Ratio Method (5) 433 (6) Link Ratio Method (6) 239 193 1 194

2009 / 2 158 (3) (4) (3) - 197 Link Ratio Method (3) 404 41.5% 357 (4) (10) Link Ratio Method (4) 244 25.0% 159 1 160 16.5%

2010 / 1 (243) (1) (1) (1) - (282) Link Ratio Method (1) 860 65.4% (290) (12) (8) Link Ratio Method (12) 844 64.2% 5 11 16 1.2%

2010 / 2 175 (1) (2) 21 - 302 Link Ratio Method (1) 646 45.6% 245 (6) (9) Link Ratio Method (6) 683 48.2% (43) 5 (38) (2.6%)

2011 / 1 (270) 4 3 (64) - (282) BF Method 3 862 70.2% (245) 8 6 BF Method 6 815 66.5% 49 (3) 46 3.7%

2011 / 2 (307) 22 15 (102) - (235) BF Method 15 1,030 85.8% (125) 24 20 BF Method 20 913 76.1% 122 (5) 117 9.7%

2012 / 1 (550) 39 20 (256) - (588) BF Method 20 1,198 95.4% (657) 95 41 BF Method 41 1,276 101.6% (57) (21) (78) (6.2%)

2012 / 2 421 49 89 282 - 461 BF Method 89 495 37.7% 521 89 180 BF Method 180 513 39.1% 73 (91) (18) (1.4%)

2013 / 1 484 102 223 388 - 402 ELR & LR Wtd Method 388 609 44.9% 406 124 227 ELR & LR Wtd Method 336 553 40.8% 4 52 56 4.1%

2013 / 2 270 418 354 288 - 283 ELR & LR Wtd Method 288 847 65.4% 327 453 393 ELR & LR Wtd Method 343 844 65.2% 57 (55) 2 0.2%

2014 / 1 346 304 327 346 - 265 ELR & LR Wtd Method 346 611 53.0% 263 458 333 ELR & LR Wtd Method 263 520 45.0% 9 83 92 8.0%

2014 / 2 683 775 67.0%

Total 484 920 1,024 887 - 523 1,815 16,678 801 1,206 1,174 1,142 15,366 546 (10) 536

2013 / 2 & Prior 138 616 697 541 - 258 786 15,292 538 748 841 879 14,846 537 (93) 444




Exhibit B.4.4.4b-1





Coverage: Collision (w All Perils)

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

ELR

Method

(prior

trend) Ult

LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 23,911 16,500 - 16,500 16,500 16,500 16,500 16,500

1994 / 1 24,306 15,458 0 15,458 15,458 - 100.0% 15,458 15,458 15,458

1994 / 2 30,630 15,558 0 15,558 15,558 - 100.0% 15,558 15,558 15,558

1995 / 1 32,728 15,055 (0) 15,055 15,055 - 100.0% 15,055 15,055 15,055

1995 / 2 31,629 14,683 (0) 14,683 14,683 - 100.0% 14,683 14,683 14,683

1996 / 1 28,520 12,837 (0) 12,837 12,837 - 100.0% 12,837 12,837 12,837

1996 / 2 26,083 11,328 0 11,328 11,328 - 100.0% 11,328 11,328 11,328

1997 / 1 22,824 10,275 1 10,276 10,276 - 100.0% 10,276 10,276 10,276

1997 / 2 20,093 9,006 (0) 9,006 9,006 - 100.0% 9,006 9,006 9,006

1998 / 1 17,115 7,729 5 7,734 7,734 - 100.0% 7,734 7,734 7,734

1998 / 2 13,107 6,533 (0) 6,533 6,533 - 100.0% 6,533 6,533 6,533

1999 / 1 10,390 5,929 2 5,931 5,931 - 100.0% 5,931 5,931 5,931

1999 / 2 9,710 6,384 0 6,384 6,384 - 100.0% 6,384 6,384 6,384

2000 / 1 9,812 6,145 0 6,145 6,145 - 100.0% 6,145 6,145 6,145

2000 / 2 10,294 8,241 (0) 8,241 8,241 - 100.0% 8,241 8,241 8,241

2001 / 1 10,549 6,668 (0) 6,668 6,668 - 100.0% 6,668 6,668 6,668

2001 / 2 13,175 8,499 (0) 8,499 8,499 - 100.0% 8,499 8,499 8,499

2002 / 1 15,749 9,228 (0) 9,228 9,228 - 100.0% 9,228 9,228 9,228

2002 / 2 17,802 11,773 (0) 11,773 11,773 - 100.0% 11,773 11,773 11,773

2003 / 1 19,284 11,561 0 11,561 11,561 - 100.0% 11,561 11,561 11,561

2003 / 2 20,842 9,902 (0) 9,902 9,902 - 100.0% 9,902 9,902 9,902

2004 / 1 21,255 8,820 0 8,820 8,820 - 100.0% 8,820 8,820 8,820

2004 / 2 21,103 9,750 (0) 9,750 9,750 - 100.0% 9,750 9,750 9,750

2005 / 1 20,018 9,179 0 9,179 9,179 - 100.0% 9,179 9,179 9,179

2005 / 2 18,624 10,168 0 10,168 10,168 - 100.0% 10,168 10,168 10,168

2006 / 1 18,245 8,698 (0) 8,698 8,698 - 100.0% 8,698 8,698 8,698

2006 / 2 20,889 12,194 0 12,194 12,194 - 100.0% 12,194 12,194 12,194

2007 / 1 21,614 13,716 2 13,718 13,718 - 100.0% 13,718 13,718 13,718

2007 / 2 21,828 13,359 0 13,359 13,359 - 100.0% 13,359 13,359 13,359

2008 / 1 23,651 15,030 0 15,030 15,030 - 100.0% 15,030 15,030 15,030

2008 / 2 24,057 16,563 3 16,566 16,566 - 100.0% 16,566 16,566 16,566

2009 / 1 21,739 14,459 17 14,477 14,477 - 100.0% 14,477 14,477 14,477

2009 / 2 18,529 15,989 83 16,072 17,047 16,072 - 100.0% 16,072 - 100.0% 16,072 16,072 17,232 92.0% 86.7% 86.7% 86.7% 86.7% 93.0% 16,072 86.7%

2010 / 1 18,901 16,600 20 16,620 17,389 16,620 - 100.0% 16,620 - 100.0% 16,620 16,620 17,578 92.0% 87.9% 87.9% 87.9% 87.9% 93.0% 16,620 87.9%

2010 / 2 19,780 18,563 19 18,582 18,988 18,582 - 100.0% 18,582 12.5% 87.5% 18,633 18,582 19,780 96.0% 93.9% 93.9% 94.2% 93.9% 100.0% 18,582 93.9%

2011 / 1 17,585 15,893 16 15,909 16,706 15,909 - 100.0% 15,909 25.0% 75.0% 16,108 15,909 17,234 95.0% 90.5% 90.5% 91.6% 90.5% 98.0% 15,909 90.5%

2011 / 2 16,595 16,770 24 16,794 17,259 16,794 - 100.0% 16,794 37.5% 62.5% 16,969 16,794 17,425 104.0% 101.2% 101.2% 102.2% 101.2% 105.0% 16,794 101.2%

2012 / 1 17,011 15,006 49 15,055 17,352 15,050 - 100.0% 15,050 50.0% 50.0% 16,201 15,055 17,522 102.0% 88.5% 88.5% 95.2% 88.5% 103.0% 15,050 88.5%

2012 / 2 16,901 17,295 37 17,332 18,422 17,320 (0.1%) 100.1% 17,319 62.5% 37.5% 18,009 17,332 18,253 109.0% 102.5% 102.5% 106.6% 102.6% 108.0% 17,320 102.5%

2013 / 1 16,389 17,027 120 17,148 17,537 17,122 (0.2%) 100.2% 17,121 75.0% 25.0% 17,433 17,148 17,209 107.0% 104.5% 104.5% 106.4% 104.6% 105.0% 17,122 104.5%

2013 / 2 16,459 19,562 94 19,656 18,435 19,619 (0.2%) 100.2% 19,621 87.5% 12.5% 18,583 19,656 17,776 112.0% 119.2% 119.2% 112.9% 119.4% 108.0% 19,621 119.2%

2014 / 1 15,513 19,366 257 19,623 16,754 19,572 (0.3%) 100.3% 19,579 100.0% - 16,754 19,623 16,133 108.0% 126.2% 126.2% 108.0% 126.5% 104.0% 19,579 126.2%

2014 / 2 15,951 15,722 4,106 19,828 18,184 20,617 3.8% 96.2% 20,524 - - - 19,828 17,227 114.0% 129.3% 128.7% 108.0% 20,524 128.7%

Total 831,193 539,024 4,856 543,880 194,073 544,538 193,193 522,641 543,880 193,369 544,454




Exhibit B.4.4.4b-2





Coverage: Collision (w All Perils)

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

ELR Method

(prior trend)

IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 16,500 - - 16,500 - - -
































2009 / 2 975 - - - - 1,160 Link Ratio Method - 16,072 86.7% 594 - - Link Ratio Method - 16,082 86.8% (10) - (10) (0.1%)

2010 / 1 769 - - - - 958 Link Ratio Method - 16,620 87.9% 580 - - Link Ratio Method - 16,620 87.9% - - - -

2010 / 2 406 - - 51 - 1,198 Link Ratio Method - 18,582 93.9% 607 - - Link Ratio Method - 18,579 93.9% 3 - 3 -

2011 / 1 797 - - 199 - 1,325 Link Ratio Method - 15,909 90.5% 785 - - Link Ratio Method - 15,922 90.5% (13) - (13) -

2011 / 2 465 - - 174 - 631 Link Ratio Method - 16,794 101.2% 164 (7) (7) Link Ratio Method (7) 16,756 101.0% 31 7 38 0.2%

2012 / 1 2,297 (5) (5) 1,146 - 2,467 Link Ratio Method (5) 15,050 88.5% 1,939 (17) (19) Link Ratio Method (17) 15,056 88.5% (18) 12 (6) -

2012 / 2 1,090 (12) (13) 676 - 921 Link Ratio Method (12) 17,320 102.5% 416 (35) (36) Link Ratio Method (35) 17,295 102.3% 2 23 25 0.2%

2013 / 1 389 (26) (26) 285 - 61 BF Method (26) 17,122 104.5% (459) (43) (42) BF Method (42) 17,135 104.5% (29) 16 (13) -

2013 / 2 (1,222) (37) (35) (1,074) - (1,880) BF Method (35) 19,621 119.2% (2,508) (49) (43) BF Method (43) 19,750 120.0% (137) 8 (129) (0.8%)

2014 / 1 (2,869) (51) (44) (2,869) - (3,490) BF Method (44) 19,579 126.2% (4,182) 341 265 BF Method 265 20,133 129.6% (245) (309) (554) (3.4%)

2014 / 2 696 20,524 128.7%

Total 3,097 (131) (123) (1,411) - 3,350 574 544,454 (2,064) 191 118 121 524,743 (569) (243) (812)

2013 / 2 & Prior 5,966 (80) (80) 1,459 - 6,840 (78) 504,351 2,118 (150) (146) (144) 504,610 (324) 66 (258)




Exhibit B.4.4.4c-1





Coverage: Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

ELR Method

(prior trend)

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

ELR

Method

(prior

trend) Ult

LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - 14,401 - 14,401 14,401 14,401 14,401 14,401

1994 / 1 - 12,330 0 12,331 12,331 - 100.0% 12,331 12,331 12,331

1994 / 2 - 13,383 0 13,383 13,383 - 100.0% 13,383 13,383 13,383

1995 / 1 - 12,374 0 12,374 12,374 - 100.0% 12,374 12,374 12,374

1995 / 2 - 13,089 0 13,089 13,089 - 100.0% 13,089 13,089 13,089

1996 / 1 - 10,445 (0) 10,445 10,445 - 100.0% 10,445 10,445 10,445

1996 / 2 - 9,514 (0) 9,513 9,513 - 100.0% 9,513 9,513 9,513

1997 / 1 - 6,574 (0) 6,574 6,574 - 100.0% 6,574 6,574 6,574

1997 / 2 - 6,638 4 6,642 6,642 - 100.0% 6,642 6,642 6,642

1998 / 1 - 4,994 3 4,997 4,997 - 100.0% 4,997 4,997 4,997

1998 / 2 - 3,949 1 3,951 3,951 - 100.0% 3,951 3,951 3,951

1999 / 1 - 2,668 0 2,669 2,669 - 100.0% 2,669 2,669 2,669

1999 / 2 - 3,004 (0) 3,004 3,004 - 100.0% 3,004 3,004 3,004

2000 / 1 - 2,984 (0) 2,984 2,984 - 100.0% 2,984 2,984 2,984

2000 / 2 - 3,379 (0) 3,379 3,379 - 100.0% 3,379 3,379 3,379

2001 / 1 - 3,241 (0) 3,241 3,241 - 100.0% 3,241 3,241 3,241

2001 / 2 - 3,823 (0) 3,823 3,823 - 100.0% 3,823 3,823 3,823

2002 / 1 - 4,141 (0) 4,141 4,141 - 100.0% 4,141 4,141 4,141

2002 / 2 0 4,229 0 4,229 4,229 - 100.0% 4,229 4,229 4,229

2003 / 1 0 3,601 0 3,601 3,601 - 100.0% 3,601 3,601 3,601

2003 / 2 - 4,774 0 4,774 4,774 - 100.0% 4,774 4,774 4,774

2004 / 1 - 3,232 0 3,232 3,232 - 100.0% 3,232 3,232 3,232

2004 / 2 (0) 3,339 0 3,339 3,339 - 100.0% 3,339 3,339 3,339

2005 / 1 (0) 2,544 0 2,544 2,544 - 100.0% 2,544 2,544 2,544

2005 / 2 (0) 3,507 - 3,507 3,507 - 100.0% 3,507 3,507 3,507

2006 / 1 (0) 2,560 (0) 2,560 2,560 - 100.0% 2,560 2,560 2,560

2006 / 2 (4) 4,376 0 4,376 4,376 - 100.0% 4,376 4,376 4,376

2007 / 1 (20) 3,380 1 3,380 3,380 - 100.0% 3,380 3,380 3,380

2007 / 2 (28) 4,132 0 4,132 4,132 - 100.0% 4,132 4,132 4,132

2008 / 1 (16) 5,380 0 5,380 5,380 - 100.0% 5,380 5,380 5,380

2008 / 2 47 4,826 0 4,826 4,826 - 100.0% 4,826 4,826 4,826

2009 / 1 1,605 4,710 0 4,710 4,710 - 100.0% 4,710 4,710 4,710

2009 / 2 4,415 4,980 27 5,006 4,239 5,006 - 100.0% 5,006 - 100.0% 5,006 5,006 4,062 96.0% 113.4% 113.4% 113.4% 113.4% 92.0% 5,006 113.4%

2010 / 1 5,675 4,355 23 4,378 4,597 4,378 - 100.0% 4,378 - 100.0% 4,378 4,378 4,540 81.0% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 80.0% 4,378 77.1%

2010 / 2 5,863 5,009 3 5,012 5,452 5,012 - 100.0% 5,012 12.5% 87.5% 5,067 5,012 5,394 93.0% 85.5% 85.5% 86.4% 85.5% 92.0% 5,012 85.5%

2011 / 1 5,061 4,542 50 4,592 4,201 4,592 - 100.0% 4,592 25.0% 75.0% 4,494 4,592 4,251 83.0% 90.7% 90.7% 88.8% 90.7% 84.0% 4,592 90.7%

2011 / 2 4,783 4,077 17 4,094 4,592 4,094 - 100.0% 4,094 37.5% 62.5% 4,280 4,094 4,592 96.0% 85.6% 85.6% 89.5% 85.6% 96.0% 4,094 85.6%

2012 / 1 4,808 3,949 2 3,951 4,231 3,951 - 100.0% 3,951 50.0% 50.0% 4,091 3,951 4,279 88.0% 82.2% 82.2% 85.1% 82.2% 89.0% 3,951 82.2%

2012 / 2 4,733 4,721 58 4,779 4,733 4,786 0.1% 99.9% 4,786 62.5% 37.5% 4,753 4,779 4,781 100.0% 101.1% 101.1% 100.4% 101.0% 101.0% 4,786 101.1%

2013 / 1 4,687 3,828 24 3,852 4,219 3,868 0.4% 99.6% 3,869 75.0% 25.0% 4,131 3,852 4,312 90.0% 82.5% 82.5% 88.1% 82.2% 92.0% 3,868 82.5%

2013 / 2 4,561 5,767 14 5,781 4,561 5,823 0.7% 99.3% 5,814 87.5% 12.5% 4,719 5,781 4,607 100.0% 127.7% 127.5% 103.5% 126.8% 101.0% 5,823 127.7%

2014 / 1 4,184 3,835 87 3,922 3,682 3,963 1.0% 99.0% 3,960 100.0% - 3,682 3,922 3,807 88.0% 94.7% 94.7% 88.0% 93.8% 91.0% 3,960 94.7%

2014 / 2 4,214 3,922 624 4,546 4,172 5,103 10.9% 89.1% 5,002 - - - 4,546 4,256 99.0% 121.1% 118.7% 101.0% 5,001 118.7%

Total 54,568 234,506 940 235,445 48,677 236,107 50,463 230,132 235,445 48,881 236,003




Exhibit B.4.4.4c-2





Coverage: Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

ELR Method

(prior trend)

IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 14,401 - - 14,401 - - -
































2009 / 2 (768) - - - - (944) Link Ratio Method - 5,006 113.4% (1,033) - - Link Ratio Method - 5,007 113.4% (1) - (1) -

2010 / 1 219 - - - - 162 Link Ratio Method - 4,378 77.1% 106 - - Link Ratio Method - 4,378 77.1% - - - -

2010 / 2 441 - - 55 - 382 Link Ratio Method - 5,012 85.5% 265 - - Link Ratio Method - 5,012 85.5% - - - -

2011 / 1 (392) - - (98) - (341) Link Ratio Method - 4,592 90.7% (366) - - Link Ratio Method - 4,516 89.2% 76 - 76 1.5%

2011 / 2 498 - - 187 - 498 Link Ratio Method - 4,094 85.6% 410 - - Link Ratio Method - 4,086 85.4% 7 - 7 0.2%

2012 / 1 280 - - 140 - 328 Link Ratio Method - 3,951 82.2% 232 4 4 Link Ratio Method 4 3,955 82.3% - (4) (4) (0.1%)

2012 / 2 (46) 7 7 (26) - 1 Link Ratio Method 7 4,786 101.1% (85) 14 14 Link Ratio Method 14 4,785 101.1% 9 (7) 2 -

2013 / 1 367 16 17 279 - 460 Link Ratio Method 16 3,868 82.5% 367 19 20 Link Ratio Method 19 3,870 82.6% 1 (3) (2) (0.1%)

2013 / 2 (1,220) 42 33 (1,062) - (1,174) Link Ratio Method 42 5,823 127.7% (1,255) 39 30 Link Ratio Method 39 5,810 127.4% 10 3 13 0.3%

2014 / 1 (241) 41 38 (241) - (115) BF Method 38 3,960 94.7% (207) 255 227 BF Method 227 4,162 99.4% (13) (189) (202) (4.7%)

2014 / 2 455 5,001 118.7%

Total (862) 105 94 (767) - (743) 558 236,003 (1,566) 329 294 303 231,144 59 (200) (141)

2013 / 2 & Prior (621) 64 57 (526) - (628) 65 227,042 (1,359) 75 68 76 226,982 72 (11) 61




I

Ont

Ex

nterestR

tarioRSP

xhibitC

RateSens

ActR

P

sitivity



O


Exhibit C

page 1 of 1


Summary of Interest Rate Sensitivity

$ Format: $000s

RSP Ontario

as at: 2014m12

Actuarial Present Value of Provisions at Various Discount Rates ‐ Dec. 31, 2015 projected Unpaid

AY 0.42% 0.92% 1.42% 1.71% 1.92% 2.42% 2.92% 3.42%

2001 &

prior 15,726 15,501 15,278 15,155 15,062 14,851 14,647 14,449

2002 2,410 2,343 2,278 2,243 2,217 2,158 2,101 2,047

2003 4,171 4,045 3,925 3,857 3,809 3,699 3,593 3,493

2004 2,897 2,804 2,715 2,665 2,630 2,549 2,472 2,399

2005 3,403 3,291 3,184 3,124 3,082 2,985 2,894 2,807

2006 11,627 11,265 10,923 10,732 10,598 10,289 9,998 9,722

2007 9,434 9,170 8,919 8,780 8,682 8,458 8,245 8,045

2008 23,039 22,508 22,007 21,727 21,531 21,080 20,653 20,249

2009 44,430 43,495 42,613 42,124 41,774 40,976 40,222 39,503

2010 91,442 89,448 87,564 86,513 85,770 84,072 82,454 80,909

2011 82,394 80,753 79,201 78,333 77,721 76,297 74,960 73,681

2012 141,150 138,804 136,582 135,320 134,437 132,388 130,444 128,575

2013 198,101 195,036 192,123 190,479 189,303 186,602 183,999 181,521

2014 248,191 244,064 240,132 237,891 236,317 232,613 229,119 225,703

Total 878,415 862,527 847,444 838,943 832,933 819,017 805,801 793,103

valuation prior val

assumption assumption

Dollar Impact Relative to Valuation Assumption

AY 0.42% 0.92% 1.42% 1.71% 1.92% 2.42% 2.92% 3.42%

Total 30,971 15,083 ‐ (8,501) (14,511) (28,427) (41,643) (54,341)

valuation prior val


Percentage Impact Relative to Valuation Assumption

AY 0.42% 0.92% 1.42% 1.71% 1.92% 2.42% 2.92% 3.42%

2001 &

prior 2.9% 1.5% ‐ (0.8%) (1.4%) (2.8%) (4.1%) (5.4%)

2002 5.8% 2.9% ‐ (1.5%) (2.7%) (5.3%) (7.8%) (10.1%)

2003 6.3% 3.1% ‐ (1.7%) (3.0%) (5.8%) (8.5%) (11.0%)

2004 6.7% 3.3% ‐ (1.8%) (3.1%) (6.1%) (9.0%) (11.6%)

2005 6.9% 3.4% ‐ (1.9%) (3.2%) (6.3%) (9.1%) (11.8%)

2006 6.4% 3.1% ‐ (1.7%) (3.0%) (5.8%) (8.5%) (11.0%)

2007 5.8% 2.8% ‐ (1.6%) (2.7%) (5.2%) (7.6%) (9.8%)

2008 4.7% 2.3% ‐ (1.3%) (2.2%) (4.2%) (6.2%) (8.0%)

2009 4.3% 2.1% ‐ (1.1%) (2.0%) (3.8%) (5.6%) (7.3%)

2010 4.4% 2.2% ‐ (1.2%) (2.0%) (4.0%) (5.8%) (7.6%)

2011 4.0% 2.0% ‐ (1.1%) (1.9%) (3.7%) (5.4%) (7.0%)

2012 3.3% 1.6% ‐ (0.9%) (1.6%) (3.1%) (4.5%) (5.9%)

2013 3.1% 1.5% ‐ (0.9%) (1.5%) (2.9%) (4.2%) (5.5%)

2014 3.4% 1.6% ‐ (0.9%) (1.6%) (3.1%) (4.6%) (6.0%)

Total 3.7% 1.8% ‐ (1.0%) (1.7%) (3.4%) (4.9%) (6.4%)

valuation prior val


file: 01a RSP ON pd emerge & apv 2014 Q4 v04b (c‐curr dsct curr mfad).xlsmFA Actuarial printed: 8:56 AM, 4/17/2015

Clai

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Ex

imsDeve

tarioRSP

xhibitD

elopment

ActR

P

tMargins


s


O


Exhibit D

Claims MfADs

page 1 of 1

Facility AssociationMargins Table (by coverage)

$ Format: $000s

RSP Ontarioas at: 2014m12 use margins as at 2015m12

Emerge: Paid to Ultimate

Current Valuation as at Dec. 31, 2014Selected Margins for Adverse Development

Accident Half Year

Bodily InjuryProperty Damage

Direct Comp Property Damage

Third Party Liability

AccBen (indivis)Uninsured Automobile

Accident Benefits

Underinsured Motorist

Collision (w All Perils)

Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)

Other Coverages Total

1994 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 7.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1994 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1995 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1995 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1996 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1996 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1997 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 9.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1997 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1998 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1998 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1999 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1999 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2000 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2000 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 7.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2001 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2001 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2002 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2002 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2003 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2003 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2004 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2004 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2005 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2005 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2006 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2006 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2007 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2007 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2008 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2008 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2009 / 1 12.5% 10.0% 5.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 5.0% 5.0% 11.7% 12.5%

2009 / 2 12.5% 10.0% 5.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 5.0% 5.0% 8.3% 12.5%

2010 / 1 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 5.0% 5.0% 14.2% 15.0%

2010 / 2 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 5.0% 5.0% 14.5% 15.0%

2011 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 18.6% 20.0%

2011 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 19.3% 20.0%

2012 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 19.4% 20.0%

2012 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 17.6% 20.0%

2013 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 17.4% 19.9%

2013 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 18.9% 20.0%

2014 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 18.1% 20.0%

2014 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 17.2% 19.9%

2015 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 14.1% 19.9%

2015 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 19.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.9% 19.0%

prem liab 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 16.3% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.4% 16.1%

discount rate: 1.42%

margin (basis points): 50

File: 01a RSP ON pd emerge & apv 2014 Q4 v04b (c‐curr dsct curr mfad).xlsmFA Actuarial Printed: 4/17/2015, 8:49 AM

ont ario rsp ex hibit a selection change s over time · 2015-04-28 · summ ary of va ont ex...

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