INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES)

SOUTHWEST MONSOON-2014 END OF SEASON REPORT

For the state of

RAJASTHAN

HIGHLIGHTS

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Southwest monsoon current advanced over the Andaman Sea 2 days earlier than its

normal data of 20th

May and set in over Kerala on its normal date of 6th

June. The

southwest monsoon set over North Wastern parts of the state on 03rd

July, about 2

days early. It progressed further and covered the entire state by 17th

July, about 2

days later than its normal date of 15th

July.

The withdrawal of monsoon from West Rajasthan commenced on 23th

September

compared to its normal date of 1st September. On 28

th September southwest

monsoon further withdrawal from entire State.

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1. ONSET OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON – 2014

This year, the arrival of southwest monsoon current over the south Bay of Bengal and

south Andaman Sea 2 days before normal dated of 20th

May. With the strengthening of cross

equatorial flow over the Arabian Sea, the rainfall activity over Kerala increased and the

monsoon set over Kerala on 6th

June 5 days later then its normal dates of 1st June.

With the formation of a low pressure area over north Bay of Bengal and adjoining

coastal areas of Bangladesh and genetic west Bengal (During 1st – 7

th July) and cyclonic

circulation over west Uttar Pradesh and neighborhood ( During 3rd

-6th

July) causes further

advanced of monsoon into some parts of Uttar Pradesh, remaining parts of Haryana (

Including Delhi) and Punjab and some parts of North Rajasthan on 3rd

July and some more

parts of North East Rajasthan on 7th

July. Subsequent to the formation and West North East

wards movement of a low pressure area (during 11th

-16 July) an off shore trough at mean

sea levels extending from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast (during 10th

-16th

July) and the

cyclonic circulation extending between 3.1 & 5.8 kms a.s.l. over North East Arabian sea

(during 14th

- 16th

July) during the second week – monsoon activity revived gradually

over central India and West coast thereby causing further advance of South West monsoon

over remaining parts of Central India and most parts North West India on 16th

and

remaining parts of North Arabian Sea, Saurashtra & Kutch, Gujarat region and West

Rajasthan and thus the entire country on 17th

July 2014.

Fig.1 shows the isochrones of advance of monsoon 2014.

Fig.1 Progress of Southwest Monsoon – 2014

Fig.2 Track of the monsoon depressions

Fig.3 Thesil wise rainfall distribution over Rajasthan Monsoon 2014

2. CHIEF SYNOPTIC FEATURES:

Strong cross equatorial flow prevailed during July and August. The presence of ridge and formation of Cyclonic Storm over Arabian Sea prevented the cross equatorial flow to actually reach the west coast of peninsular India during first half of June. It was weak during later part of the September as well. The axis of monsoon trough mostly remained normal/South of its normal position during July and first half of September. It extended up to mid troposphere levels without its characteristic tilt. It mostly remained North of its normal position /close to foot hills of Himalayas during August. The seasonal ‘heat low’ was less demarcated since second half of August except for first half of September, when it became noticeable. Thereafter, it became less apparent and subsequently, the axis of monsoon trough also weakened thereby becoming less delineated since 22nd September.

With the shifting of monsoon trough to the foot hills of Himalayas during the month of August, the circulation features and rainfall pattern resembled typical break like situation during 15th – 21st August. During the season, 13 low pressure systems formed. These included 10 low pressure areas, one cyclonic storm (CS), a land depression and a deep depression. Tracks of the depressions and the CS are given in Fig.2. Out of the 10 low pressure areas formed during the season (against the season normal of 6), 8 (3 of them well marked) formed over the Bay of Bengal and two (as well marked) over the Arabian Sea. The monthly break up is 1 in June, 3 in July, 3 in August and 3 in September. During the month of June, one CS and one low pressure area formed. The CS ‘Nanauk’ (9th–14th June) which formed over East Arabian Sea at the leading edge of the monsoon current aided the further advance of Arabian branch up to South Gujarat coast. Its remnant vortex drifting northeastwards towards Gujarat resulted in extremely heavy rainfall over Saurashtra & Kutch on 16th June. The first low pressure area (19th – 22nd June) formed over coastal areas of Bangladesh and neighborhood under the influence of a cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. It increased the rainfall activity over the region and thus led to the further advance of southwest monsoon over sub-divisions in the east. The formation of second low pressure area (1st -7th July) over north Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas and its more north-northwesterly movement kept the monsoon activity over the eastern parts only. Therefore the rainfall activity all over India during the period remained subdued. With the formation of the land depression (21st – 23rd July) over northeastern parts of Odisha and adjoining areas of Genetic West Bengal and thereafter its movement as a low pressure area in westward direction along with the other two low pressure areas (11th-18th July & 27th -31st July) over northwest Bay of Bengal, revived the monsoon activity over central and peninsular India during the period. First week of August witnessed the formation of a deep depression (3rd -6th Aug.) over coastal areas of west Bengal and neighborhood which spurred the vigorous monsoon conditions over the Indo- Genetic plains whereas its remnant cyclonic circulation enhanced the rainfall activity over parts of northwest India. The low pressure area (9th -11th Aug.) formed over north Bay of Bengal and its northwestwards movement and dissipation, led the monsoon trough to shift towards the foot hills of the Himalayas on 13th Aug.

With the formation of 2 well marked low pressure areas (23rd -24th Aug.) & (27th Aug – 6th Sept), one each over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, the rainfall activity over major parts of peninsular India enhanced during the last week of August. Monsoon activity in general remained weak outside this areas and northeastern parts of the country, which received rainfall associated with the North-South trough in the lower and mid tropospheric westerlies. The formation of the well marked low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal and its West-North West wards movement across the central parts of India along with the formation of the low pressure area (2nd -4th Sept.) over Saurashtra & Kutch and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea revived the rainfall activity over central and North West India. The above well marked low pressure area took a more North ward course from 4th Sept and thereafter interacting with the trough in the mid-latitude Westerlies in the lower tropospheric levels, caused heavy to very heavy rainfall resulting severe floods in Jammu & Kashmir during first week of September. The formation and movement of the third well marked low pressure area (5th – 9th Sept) over North Bay of Bengal off West Bengal–Bangladesh coasts helped the monsoon trough to shift southwards of its normal position and thus led to vigorous monsoon activity over North, East central and adjoining peninsular India.

In the latter half of September, a low pressure area (16th -24th Sept.) formed over North West Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Odisha and West central Bay of Bengal. Its North ward movement increased the rainfall activity over eastern parts only.

2. FLOOD SITUATIONS

Incessant rainfall associated with the monsoon low pressure systems and active monsoon conditions in the presence of strong cross equatorial flow and deep monsoon trough, often caused flood situations over Eastern parts (Ajmer and Kota divisions ) of the state during the season.

3. WITHDRAWAL OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON

The weather over the Western parts of Rajasthan remained mainly dry from 17th Sept. A change in the lower troposphere circulation pattern over the region from cyclonic to anti cyclonic during 16th - 17th Sept also made conditions favorable for the withdrawal of southwest monsoon from the region. Subsequently, withdrawal of monsoon from Northwestern most parts of the country commenced on 23rd Sept. It withdrew from some parts of West Rajasthan and Kutch on 23rd Sept. and from some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat region, some more parts of Kutch area and remaining parts of West Rajasthan on 26th. On 28th Sept., it further withdrew from remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and East Rajasthan; some parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Saurashtra; most parts of West Uttar Pradesh and some more parts of Gujarat region, Kutch and North Arabian Sea. As on 30th September, the withdrawal line

passed through Jammu, Una, Bareilly, Kanpur, Nowgong, Ujjain, Vadodara, Porbandar, Lat. 220 N/ Long. 650 E and Lat. 220 N / Long. 600 E.

Fig.3 shows the isochrones of withdrawal of monsoon 2014.

Fig. 4 Isochrones of withdrawal of southwest monsoon - 2014

4. RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION

The rainfall during monsoon season (June to September) for the State as a whole and its two meteorological sub divisions are as follows:

Region / Area Actual mm Long period average LPA mm Departure from

normal %

Rajasthan 420.4 418.7 0

East Rajasthan

618.6 615.1 +1

West Rajasthan

263 262.7 0

The seasonal rainfall over Rajasthan was 100% of its LPA, East Rajasthan 101% of its LPA and West Rajasthan 100 % of its LPA. The rainfall distribution

was almost uniform over the State. All 27 districts received excess to normal rainfall of the season. A more micro distribution shows that out of 245 Tehsils in the State, 68(28%) tehsils witnessed excess; 111(45%) normal; 63(26%) deficit and only 3 (1%) scanty rainfalls.

Monthly distribution over the state and its two meteorological subdivisions is given below.

RAJASTHAN:-

MONTH Actual rainfall (mm.) Normal rainfall (mm.) % dep. from normal

June 18.6 44.1 -58

July 139.7 156.8 -11

August 154.4 150.9 +2

September 107.8 66.9 +61

EAST RAJASTHAN:-

MONTH Actual rainfall (mm.) Normal rainfall (mm.) % dep. from normal

June 24.0 62.2 -61

July 196.9 225.0 -12

August 261.0 228.4 +14

September 136.7 99.5 +37

WEST RAJASTHAN:-

MONTH Actual rainfall (mm.) Normal rainfall (mm.) % dep. from normal

June 14.3 29.8 -52

July 94.3 102.6 -8

August 69.6 89.3 -22

September 84.9 41.1 +106

From the above tables it is observed that the monthly rainfall over the

state during June was deficient, in July and August was normal and in September was excess of the order of 42%, 89%, 102% and 161% respectively from the LPA. The amount of rainfall ( in terms of % departure from LPA ) was more over West Rajasthan as compare to East Rajasthan during both June and September months. While during July and August, the trend reversed and the monthly rainfall was less over west Rajasthan as compare to East Rajasthan. During June the corresponding figures were -61% and -52% and during September +37% and +106% over East and West Rajasthan respectively.

DISTRICTWISE SEASONAL RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION

State/Districts

Monsoon rainfall in mm (June-September) Year- 2014

Sr. No.

Actual(mm) Normal(mm) %Dep

Rajasthan 420.4 418.7 0

MET. SUBDIVISIONS

EAST RAJASTHAN

1 AJMER 527.2 429.6 23

2 ALWAR 385.6 555.3 -31

3 BANSWARA 647.2 831.8 -22

4 BARAN 1020.5 792.2 29

5 BHARATPUR 440.8 557.6 -21

6 BHILWARA 685.9 580.9 18

7 BUNDI 681.3 655.9 4

8 CHITTORGARH 786.4 709.7 11

9 DAUSA 587.2 612.1 -4

10 DHOLPUR 487 650 -25

11 DUNGARPUR 597.8 637.8 -6

12 JAIPUR 496.4 524.6 -5

13 JHALAWAR 794 855.1 -7

14 JHUNJHUNU 380.7 410 -7

15 KARAULI 506.1 637.4 -21

16 KOTA 736.3 746.3 -1

17 PRATAPGARH 689.8 845.8 -18

18 RAJSAMAND 531.4 506 5

19 SAWAI MADHOPUR 674.8 664 2

20 SIKAR 458.6 402.5 14

21 SIROHI 709.4 868.6 -18

22 TONK 698.9 566 23

23 UDAIPUR 680.9 591.3 15

East Rajasthan 618.6 615.1 1

WEST RAJASTHAN

24 BARMER 214.9 243.4 -12

25 BIKANER 224.8 228.7 -2

26 CHURU 366.6 313.7 17

27 HANUMANGARH 286.6 252.5 14

28 JAISALMER 90.7 158.4 -43

29 JALORE 342.6 394.2 -13

30 JODHPUR 306.4 274.5 12

31 NAGAUR 405.2 348.5 16

32 PALI 510.2 446.7 14

33 SRI GANGANAGAR 270.9 201.4 34

West Rajasthan 263 262.7 0

The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the State as a whole was +100% of its LPA and it was 101% and 100% of LPA over East and West Rajasthan respectively. Out of 33 districts, the seasonal rainfall was excess in 04 districts and normal in 23 districts . 06 districts was either deficit or scanty category. Jaisalmer district got the least rainfall (57%) and Sriganganagar the highest rainfall (134%) of LPA.

a. Weekly Rainfall Distribution

Weekly rainfall distribution over the two Meteorological sub divisions of the state is shown in the following charts.

Fig.5 Weekly rainfall distribution over East Rajasthan Monsoon 2014

Fig. 6 Cummulative weekly rainfall distribution over Eest Rajasthan Monsoon 2014

Practically , on Weekly bases the rainfall over East Rajasthan was insignificant during the weeks ending on 4th June to 9th July, 20th , 27th August and last 2 weeks of September. A good amount of rainfall (150 mm) was observed during the week ending 0n 13th August 2014. The rainfall picked up considerably during 2nd week of July to 2nd week of August 2014. During first two weeks of September the rainfall picked up considerably over East Rajasthan after a lull period of about three prior weeks.

Fig.7 Weekly rainfall over West Rajasthan Monsoon 2014

Fig.8 Cumulative weekly rainfall over West Rajasthan Monsoon 2014

Practically , on weekly bases the rainfall was insignificant ( less than 15 mm) during four weeks of June up to 2nd week of July and 2 weeks of August and last 2 weeks of September over West Rajasthan. The rainfall picked up over this met. Sub division from 2nd week of July to 2nd week of August and lasted up to 1st week of September to 2nd week of September. Highest (59.6 mm) rainfall was observed during the week ending on 10th September 2014. With a revival of monsoon, first two weeks of the September got good rainfall activities over Western parts of the state.

5.2 District Wise Monthly Seasonal and Daily Rainfall Distribution

Fig. 9 District Wise Montly Rainfall Distribution Over Rajasthan - June

Fig.10 District Wise Montly Rainfall Distribution Over Rajasthan - July

Fig.11 District Wise Montly Rainfall Distribution over

Rajasthan - August Fig. 12 District Wise Montly Rainfall Distribution Over Rajasthan -

September

Durining June 2014 out of 33 districts , 04 districts received excess rainfall, 5 districts normal, 4 districts deficit, 19 districts were scanty and 1 district no rainfall ; During July , 3 districts of excess, 18 districts of normal and 12 districts scanty, during August 12 districts excess, 6 districts normal and I3 district deficit and 2 scanty. In September 21 districts excess, 10 districts normal and 2 districts deficit. During the whole monsoon season most of the area received normal rainfall. Out of 33 districts, 04 districts received excess, 23 districts normal rainfall . 06 district was deficit.

Fig.13 District Wise Seasonal Rainfall Distribution Over Rajasthan (June to September )

Fig.14 State Wise Seasonal Rainfall Distribution Over India (June- September)

Fig. 15 District Wise Daily Spatial Rainfall Distribution

Fairly wide spread to widely spread rainfall occurred on 25 days ( minimum ) to 58 days ( maximum ) over different districts in East Rajasthan during the whole monsoon season . Pratapgargh district got wide spread rainfall on 42 days( highest ) during the whole season. Pali , Churu , Nagaur , Jalore, Jodhpur and Shriganganagar district of West Rajasthan received wide spread rainfall only 2 to 3 days only during the season.

Fig. 16 District wise Daily Heavy Rainfall Distribution

Heavy to very heavy rainfall occurred at isolated to most places in all districts of the state on a few days. The districts namely Karauli, Chittorgarh, Tonk, Rajsamand, Banswara and Dholpur received heavy rainfall on more number of days at more places . Tonk, Jaipur and Dausa districts experienced heavy rainfall at most places on 4 to 5 days during the season. Jhunjhunu, Pratapgarh, Alwar and Sawaimadhopur districts received heavy rainfall at most places on 2 to 3 days during the whole season.

Fig. 17 District wise Tehsil Level Seasonal Rainfall Distribution

All tehsils in many of the districts received either excess or normal rainfall during the whole monsoon season. The worst effected districts during this season were Alwar, Sirohi and Jasalmer . Out of 12 tehsils in Alwar district , 8 tehsils got deficit rainfall . In Sirohi district , out of 5 tehsils , 3 tehsils got deficit rainfall and 1 tehsils scanty and in Jasalmer district 3 tehsils out of 3 reported deficit rainfall . One to two tehsils also recorded deficit rainfall in Bharatpur, Jaipur, Dholpur, Karauli, Jalore, Sawaimadhopur, Jhunjhunu, Pratapgarh districts.

Fig. 20 Daily Average Rainfall Distribution Over West Rajasthan (Monsoon Season 2014)

Fig.21 Daily Average Rainfall Distribution over Rajasthan (Monsoon Season 2014)

Fig.18 Tehsil wise Seasonal Rainfall Distribution Fig.19 Daily Average Rainfall Distribution Over East Rajasthan ( Monsoon Season 2014)

Fig.22 Daily Rainfall Intensity Distribution Over East

Rajasthan (Monsoon Season 2014) Fig.23 Daily Rainfall Intensity Distribution over West Rajasthan

(Monsoon Season 2014)

DISTRICTWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL IN MM MONSOON - 2014

S.NO. DISTRICTS

4-

Jun

11-

Jun

18-

Jun

25-

Jun

2-

Jul

9-

Jul

16-

Jul

23-

Jul

30-

Jul

6-

Aug

13-

Aug

20-

Aug

27-

Aug

3-

Sep

10-

Sep

17-

Sep

24-

Sep

30-

Sep

EAST RAJASTHAN

1 AJMER 0 0 0.4 4.3 0 0 42.3 46.1 58.3 54 192.5 0.1 1.8 62.7 47.6 17 0 0

2 ALWAR 18.4 0 5.7 11.6 13.6 21.6 3.9 28.7 38.4 56.2 44.4 1.9 0.2 38.1 50.4 52.3 0.3 0

3 BANSWARA 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 63.9 95.4 85.2 29.8 7.9 13.7 138.9 132.3 17.5 0 0

4 BARAN 0 0 15.5 6.6 3.4 3.7 48.5 195.9 71.4 160.3 323.3 3.4 1.4 46.1 67.5 48 0.8 0

5 BHARATPUR 0 0 5.9 38.5 24.9 36.2 2.1 57.4 42.9 84.2 46.3 1.4 0 27.7 41.6 31 0.5 0

6 BHILWARA 0.2 0.5 4.3 11.6 0 0.3 54.1 33.2 101.1 45.3 293.7 2.3 11 53 49.2 26.3 0 0

7 BUNDI 0 0 14.2 9 0.2 0 21.9 56.2 49.2 158.7 257.5 0.3 0 68.2 20 24.7 0 0

8 CHITTORGARH 0.1 0.9 1.5 1.2 0 1.2 56.3 55.9 158.4 69.6 234.1 1.3 14 84.2 63.8 44 0 0

9 DAUSA 15.2 0 3.2 13.6 5.8 16.8 4.8 60.6 30.4 119.8 184.2 0.2 0 46.8 43.8 42 0 0

10 DHOLPUR 0 0 9.8 20.9 2.3 13.7 0 51 19.7 181.3 34.3 0 0 37.8 65.8 46.8 0 0

11 DUNGARPUR 0 0.3 0 0 0 0 78.8 72.5 74.7 49.8 30.4 10.2 15.8 144.5 97.3 23.8 0 0

12 JAIPUR 7.6 0 4.4 11.9 1.9 9.1 13.6 64.8 42.5 68.9 150 0.8 0 44.2 38.3 38.8 0 0

13 JHALAWAR 0 0 27.4 1 0 1.6 48.1 122.3 64.5 152.2 210.4 3 7.1 56.3 43 56.5 0 0

14 JHUNJHUNU 10.6 0 20.1 21.1 4.5 23.3 1.8 57.3 62.1 31.6 61.5 0 1.5 27.5 34.9 20.3 0 0

15 KARAULI 0 0 12.6 44.7 6.7 9.2 8.6 69.2 61.3 109.7 45 0 0 51.5 32.8 54.8 0 0

16 KOTA 0 0 13.8 5.4 0.8 0.8 47.4 95.6 113.1 115.9 235.9 3.3 0 30.5 51.5 18.1 0.6 0

17 PRATAPGARH 0 2.8 0 0 0 0 44.2 85 101 85.6 101 11 17 143 79.2 20 0 0

18 RAJSAMAND 0 0.7 0 0.4 0 0 62 34.6 70.9 47.4 133 0.4 26.7 76.1 39.3 39.9 0 0

19

SAWAI

MADHOPUR 0 0 9.9 24.6 2.4 2.9 13.4 79.1 48.7 184 182.7 0 0 50.7 20.8 54.6 1.8 0

20 SIKAR 12.7 0 10.6 11.4 9.9 24.3 6.1 83.3 86.3 42.4 53.6 0 3.3 47 27.7 22.9 0 0

21 SIROHI 6.1 0 1.3 0 0 0 35.2 23.6 198.5 58.2 71.2 7.3 21.7 56.8 140.1 78.5 0 0

22 TONK 0.9 0.1 1.6 4.4 4.6 2.1 15.6 69.4 89.1 120.3 296.5 0.5 0 44.2 35.7 16 0 0

23 UDAIPUR 1 2 0 0 0 0 62.2 79.2 126.7 46.5 61.9 2.1 46.7 56.5 117.8 78.8 0.5 0

WEST RAJASTHAN

24 BARMER 4.3 0 0 0 0 0 0.4 52.4 11.3 26.2 24.6 1.9 1.4 11.7 80.5 0.4 0 0

25 BIKANER 0.9 0 0 24.7 11.1 5.2 0.4 14.3 49.5 24.5 6.5 3.4 2.2 33.7 42 5.7 0 0

26 CHURU 15.9 0 4.9 14.1 9 13.4 2.2 73.9 79 29.7 12.9 0 5.1 14 37.3 49.9 0 0

27 HANUMANGARH 4 0 10.3 4.9 24.6 13.9 0 28.9 36.2 22.6 0 0 0.1 23 97.9 20.3 0 0

28 JAISALMER 0.2 0 0 0.6 0 0 0 8.8 15.7 40.3 3.9 0.1 0 14.8 1 5.3 0 0

29 JALORE 3.6 0 0 0 0 0 5.3 56.5 37.4 39.4 27.8 0.3 5.4 22.1 124.5 20.5 0 0

30 JODHPUR 0 0 0 6 0 0 5.2 33.4 40.9 19.1 77.3 0.6 0 29.9 95.3 2.1 0 0

31 NAGAUR 1.7 0 0 6.3 1.7 5.9 11.6 71.4 64.2 44.3 101.8 1.4 0 30.1 48.7 14.9 0 0

32 PALI 0.3 1.2 0 6.2 0 0 40.8 38.8 86.7 33 140.8 0 21.6 10.6 80.6 45.1 0 0

33

SRI

GANGANAGAR 0 0 0.7 19.2 12.3 1.5 0 16.2 50.4 4.3 0.9 0 1.2 23.9 129.1 3.8 0 7.1

LESS 10 10--20 20--50 50--100 GREATER THAN 100

Fig. 22 District Wise Weekly Rainfall Distribution over Rajasthan (Monsoon Season)

5. HEAT WAVE DURING MONSOON -2014 Heat wave to severe heat wave prevailed over Rajasthan on dated 1

st,8

th ,9

th,

10th

, 11th

12th

June, 12th

,13th

, 16th

July 2014. Heat wave prevailed over Rajasthan on dated 3

rd,4

th,5

th, 6

th, 7

th, 17

th, 19

th, 20

th, 21

st, 30

th June, 1

st, 10

th, 11

thJuly 2014 and

abated from Rajasthan 18th

July 2014.

6. LONG RANGE FORECAST OF MONSOON – 2014

The southwest monsoon rainfall for (June to September) over northwest India was predicted normal (85%) of LPA with a model error of +8%. The actual rainfall for this broad region and the State (part of NW India) were 101% and 100% respectively of LPA. Thus forecast for the season rainfall over northwest India was underestimated to the actual rainfall by 08% of LPA.

7. PERFORMANCE OF MONSOON 2014 0VER RAJASTHAN

The monsoon rainfall had been satisfactory on both temporal and spatial scale over the whole state from Agriculture and Hydrology point of view. The MONSOON 2014 WAS NOT BATTER THAN THE EARLIER MONSOON 2013.