Ongoing and finalised COM studies on Adaptation to Climate Change

Balázs Horváth

European Commission DG Environment

3rd EIONET workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Copenhagen, 30 June 2009

White Paper Pillar I: Strengthening the Knowledge Base – an essential step

forward Build on on-going research projects and studies

IPCC AR5 scenarios 7th FP projects National research projects, INTERREG etc.

Fill-in gaps with specific projects Vulnerability indicators:

Preliminary assessment and roadmap for the elaboration of Climate Change vulnerability indicators at regional level

Guidelines/Toolbox for adaptation strategies Design of guidelines for the elaboration of Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

Assessment of adaptation policies Implementation of Land-use modelling: adaptation-related scenarios Water and adaptation modelling

Objective: provide structure and contents for the EU Clearinghouse Contact point: Jacques.Delsalle@ec.europa.eu

Climate Change Vulnerability Indicators

The project ‘preliminary assessment and roadmap for the elaboration of Climate Change vulnerability indicators at regional level’ aims to:

Collect the existing information on vulnerability indices Assess the feasibility and provide options for the design of vulnerability indicators,

that can be used to assess further EU-wide adaptation policy Provide a first version of one option for a set of indicators with available data Assess the options for the further use of this set of indicators for a number of EU

policy aims.

9 months contract (AEA, SEI, IVM, PIK), final report due in Sept 09

Workshop on 18/6 (Brussels), presentation and minutes available on http://www.ecologic-events.de/climate_adaptation/presentations.htm

Further input expected from 2-3 July expert workshop

Guidelines/Toolbox for adaptation strategies

The project “Design of guidelines for the elaboration of Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies” aims at:

An inventory of existing regional adaptation strategies (RAS) in the EU MS

A preliminary assessment of the support framework/tools available at EU and MS level with regard to adaptation to climate change

Guidelines on the process for the development of a regional adaptation strategy

9 months contract (Ecologic, AEA, Alterra, IVM), final report due in Sept 09

Workshop on 17/6 (Brussels), presentation and minutes available on http://www.ecologic-events.de/climate_adaptation/presentations.htm

Land-use modelling: adaptation-related scenarios On-going service contract (14 months, ending Feb 2010) with Alterra, geonext, Object

Vision, Bio IS Objectives:

Define an integrated land use modelling framework ”EU-ClueScanner”, Building on experiences with existing modelling systems (SENSOR, SEAMLESS,

EURURALIS, ATEAM, PRELUDE, LUMOCAP, etc. Spatial resolution: 1 km2, Spatial extent: EU27, Temporal extent: 30 years (2000-2030)

annual changes, Land use classes: 17 based on CLC2000 Improve Policy-Science interaction (model as a tool for assessment and communication)

10 illustrative reference and policy scenario 1 scenario (X 2 ref cases) looking at land-use implications expected from selected

adaptation policy measures restricted to water management and soil protection as EC-legislation is being prepared for these

themes other issues such as heat stress, agricultural crop choice could be assessed at a later stage implementation foreseen later this year

Interim workshop to present modelling framework and scenario design on 26 June, Brussels

Results to be presented at a workshop on 12/11/2009, Brussels

Water and adaptation modelling

Objective: assessment of both vulnerability to climate change impacts and

adaptation measures with a specific focus on water related impacts and measures,

provision of an integrated analytical platform at a detailed geographical level, giving the basis for the identifications of adaptation measures to be either promoted or prevented at EU level.

Open call for tender on-going ENV.D.2/SER/2009/0034:

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/funding/calls_en.htm

Study on the Economics of climate change adaptationin EU coastal areas (2009)

• DG MARE commissioned a study which:

Assesses coastal protection policies and climate change adaptation plans and practices in EU coastal areas;

Compiles most recent information about the theoretical cost estimated by models;

Provides extensive empirical information about past, present and foreseen expenditures on coastal protection and adaptation by competent authorities;

Compares theoretical costs against real expenditures and identifies disparities amongst regions (on i.e. vulnerability and costs of adaptation), sources of uncertainty, etc

Analyses costs and benefits, use of public funds

The main climate change impacts relevant for coastal zones are flooding and erosion, saline intrusion and freshwater shortage, and the loss of eco-systems

To date, studies and reports focus primarily on Sea Level Rise (SLR)

Scientific literature estimates the annual adaptation cost to protect Europe’s coastal zones against SLR: $ 0.2 billion and € 5.4 billion (per year).Benefits of early adaptation are clear (PESETA Study).

Europe’s total coastal protection expenditure (1998-2015): € 0.88 billion / year

Close to 85% of total coastal protection expenditure is borne by 5 countries (IT, NL, DE, UK, ES)

More than 60% of the normal coastal protection expenditure is dedicated to the North Sea

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The Study includes Analysis and detailed information per marine basin, including outermost regions, and per country.

More info: http://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/climate_change_en.html

€ 2.7

€ 8.1

€ 127.5

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€ 131 € 936€ 462

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€ 267

€ 353

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Europe’s total expenditure € 10.47 billion

EU

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Local/private€ 237Outermost regions

Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate Change

DG AGRI

Jan – Nov 2007

AEA Environment and Technology (UK) in partnership with Universidad Politecnica of Madrid (ES)

Scope Impacts, risks and opportunities in EU-27

Potential adaptation options to increase resilience

Assess policies that may present barrier to adaptation

Main conclusions

Boreal, Atlantic and Continental north zones: increased precipitation in winter, decreased in summer; risk of new pests and diseases

Alpine region: temperature increases, impacts on hydrological cycles

Mediterranean zone: reduced water availability, heat and drought stress, increased competition for water resources

Measures can be applied in farm level, because a lot of them are management-related (e.g. change crop rotation)

Impacts of Climate Change on European Forests and Options for Adaptation

DG AGRI

Jan – Nov 2008

European Forest Institute (FI) in partnership with BOKU (AT), INRA, Bordeaux (FR) and AISF (IT)

Scope Impacts, adaptive capacity, risks and opportunities in EU-27

Potential adaptation actions to increase resilience

Ongoing and planned adaptation measures in MS

Main conclusions

Adaptive capacity is large in the Boreal and Temperate Oceanic regions, but limited in the Mediterranean region

Some measures are well established, but experience is lacking on how tree species respond to rapid changing

Vulnerability assessments are almost completely lacking at national level

There is a need for monitoring and further research

Contact: maria.fuentes@ec.europa.eu

DG REGIO - Regional Challenges in the Perspective of 2020: Regional Disparities and Future Challenges Follow-up of the Regions 2020 report

http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docoffic/working/regions2020/index_en.htm

Context: "Regional Futures Initiative", a network of think tanks and experts looking at future of regional trends established by the Bertelsmann Foundation, the World Bank and DG REGIO

Objective: improve understanding of the role of key challenges such as globalisation, climate

change, demographic change and migration, energy and social polarisation, play in generating and reducing spatial disparities in the European Union and neighbourhood countries.

provide a basis for Regional Policy discussion and choices in the coming years.

5 thematic workshops (Climate Change 7 May 2009) On the basis of a consensus result of the workshop the paper will be

finalised and reach the status of a solid basis for the discussion about the future of Structural Policy.

Contact: Wolfgang.Munch@ec.europa.eu