one year on – enfield’s skills and employment strategy revisited

Paul Convery Research & Consultancy

Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy

Paul ConveryPaul Convery

88thth July 2009 July 2009

One year on – Enfield’s skills and employment strategy revisited



The economic vision for Enfield

• To increase jobs and wealth in the Borough:

– tackle worklessness and poverty

– create a more socially cohesive Borough

– residents secure a good standard of living

– residents achieve their ambitions and goals

• This requires us to:

– foster enterprise

– raise skills

– increase employment throughout the Borough

But this was a vision devised in “good times” …



But … recession has struck

• We start this recession with more workless claimants than previous recession

• JSA totals rose rapidly between May 2008 and May 2009

• the number of other claimants (IB/IS) has remained fairly static

• employment rate was already declining

However … so far there is:

• Not much worsening of defaults on Council Tax and business rates

• No noticeable increase in demand for Council or RSL housing

• Limited evidence of mortgage default and forced sales

But there are risks ahead:

• This year’s school and college leavers face a very uncertain future

• Local economy is already weak … and recessions tend to have “lagging” effects

• Worst wards performing worse: the gap is widening



The “Enfield paradox”

• … the Borough did not fully benefit from London’s rapid growth in the last decade or so …

• … but we may suffer disproportionately from the downturn.

Preparing for the recoverySo, the Borough and its residents may have to work even harder to:• Retain existing businesses in Enfield and help them survive• Attract new businesses to replace the inevitable losses• Make our “place shaping” ambitions succeed• Compete for available jobs elsewhere in London – especially central

London and (especially) …• … to equip our young people with the skills and knowledge to gain a

foothold in work



Count of JSA claimants (since mid 2008) - Enfield (not seasonally adjusted)

8,628

5,251

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09

Feb

-09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

May

-09

• JSA count has risen by 3,400 – which is a 64% increase (exactly conforms to the London average)



Enfield wards May-08 May-09 -- Increase --

Bowes 234 423 189 81%

Bush Hill Park 129 249 120 93%

Chase 197 360 163 83%

Cockfosters 125 239 114 91%

Edmonton Green 552 721 169 31%

Enfield Highway 331 507 176 53%

Enfield Lock 324 601 277 85%

Grange 88 205 117 133%

Haselbury 336 529 193 57%

Highlands 135 243 108 80%

Jubilee 305 452 147 48%

Lower Edmonton 383 545 162 42%

Palmers Green 243 418 175 72%

Ponders End 422 640 218 52%

Southbury 258 432 174 67%

Southgate 135 281 146 108%

Southgate Green 203 308 105 52%

Town 127 271 144 113%

Turkey Street 255 465 210 82%

Upper Edmonton 443 606 163 37%

Winchmore Hill 104 256 152 146%

Total 5,251 8,628 3,377 64%

• Largest absolute increases are in the Borough’s disadvantaged eastern wards. But, these wards have quite small proportionate increases – because they already had much higher JSA totals to start with



We already had severe problems …

• Employment rate was already worsening – fell from 72% in late 2006 to around 67% by late 2008

• Total number of claimants represented just over 14% of all working age adults (about 20,000 people) in mid 2008 … so is around 23,500

• In worst neighbourhoods, claimant rates of more than 30%• 29% of all households in the Borough (34,500) receive HB/CTB:• in eight wards a third or more of households receiving HB/CTB

… in Edmonton Green, it is just over 50%



The Enfield economy

• We have a growing, changing but under-performing local economy:– Few knowledge intensive sectors– Relatively low output and productivity– Public sector dominates– Small and medium sized firms– Low business formation rates– Limited presence of London’s growth sectors – Employers are not prepared for future change



The population is changing … and is under-employed

• Population is growing quickly – and is younger• Increasingly diverse … low employment rates• Employment rate gap in the range of between:

– 5,000 (match London employment rate)– Or 12,000 (align with GB employment rate)– Or 22,000 (achieve 80% employment rate)

• Young adults, women and disabled have low employment rates

• Over 25,000 residents want-to-work (mostly inactive)• Geographical concentration has worsened



Employment rates(working age population)

55%

57%

59%

61%

63%

65%

67%

69%

71%

73%

75%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Great Britain London Enfield



Employment gap - how many more people need to be in work to match the GB employment

rates? (2008)

200

4,500

2,600

8,500

11,900

11,700

8,000

6,200

0 4,000 8,000 12,000

Enfield

Haringey

Hackney

Waltham Forest

Men Women



Workless rates: "want to work"(working age population) 2008

11%

11%

14%

15%

17%

13%

9%

15%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Enfield

Haringey

Waltham Forest

Hackney

Men Women



Workless rates - "Want to work"(working age population)

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008




Out-of-work benefit claimants in Enfield - Aug 1999 to Aug 2008 (NI 152)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Lone parents Incapacity benefits JSA Other workless



Out-of-work claimant rates Enfield (NI 152)(as % of the working age population, rolling 4 quarters)

12.4%

14.4%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2000

2001

2001

2002

2002

2003

2003

2004

2004

2005

2005

2006

2006

2007

2007

2008

2008

London Enfield



Out-of-work claimant rates in the worst performing neighbourhoods in Enfield (NI 153)

(as % of the working age population, rolling 4 quarters)

28.4%

26.2%

27.0%27.8%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

Feb

-06

Apr

-06

Jun-

06

Aug

-06

Oct

-06

Dec

-06

Feb

-07

Apr

-07

Jun-

07

Aug

-07

Oct

-07

Dec

-07

Feb

-08

Apr

-08

Jun-

08

Aug

-08

London Enfield



… and the population is lower skilled

• Very low employment rates for unskilled … 48,000 (27%) are at level 1 or less

• Very high employment rates for level 4+ … but fewer of them

• Over the next decade, new jobs will require higher skills – both in the Borough and beyond:– A third will be at Level 4 and a half will be for top 3 SOCs– skilled trades will make-up only 7% of all new jobs– machine operators and elementary occupations will account for

another 15%.– A fifth will be OK for no-low skilled– Retail/wholesale, hospitality, business services and public sector

• London economy will require more level 3 and 4



Percentage of working age population qualified to NVQ level 4 or above (2007)

29%

37%

40%

29%

42%

30%

51%

37%

45%

54%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Great Britain

London

Barnet

Enfield

Haringey

Waltham Forest

Camden

Hackney

Islington

Westminster



Percentage of population qualified to NVQ level 4 or above

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%19

99

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007




Percentage of working age population "low-no skilled" 2007

13%

11%

15%

15%

20%

11%

19%

14%

16%

10%

9%

12%

8%

11%

6%

10%

9%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30%

London

Barnet

Enfield

Haringey

Waltham Forest

Camden

Hackney

Islington

Redbridge

No qualifications Level 1 only



Percentage of population "low-no skilled"(only achieved NVQ 1 or have no qualifications),

2007

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007




Action Plan: “stimulate employers”

• Support inward investment and business growth to increase demand– Strengthen LEPs– Expand Train to Gain– Increase Skills Pledge firms to 50%– Simplify engagement with businesses– Increase Level 2, Level 3 and progression to HE– Promote apprenticeships– Increase employer engagement in primary and 14-19– Strengthen business leadership Borough-wide and

locally



Action Plan: “helping people”

• Increase skills and employability in disadvantaged areas and people– Reduce number of benefit claimants in worst areas– Concentrate on priority population groups– Deliver ULV “North London Pledge”– Integrated service offer – Enfield JobNet– Deliver Pathways to Work– Deliver higher volumes of Skills for Life and Skills

for Jobs



Action Plan: “fixing the wiring”

• Better co-ordination, planning, information sharing and networking– Joint commissioning plan– Partners and providers collaborate to seek new

funding– Data sharing between partners– Networking between providers of 14-19 and adult

services– Strengthen Enfield Observatory’s market intelligence

role



What might schools and colleges do?

• Gain access to adequate information about the emerging labour market and the expectations of employers

• Consider formally adopting a strategic intention to equip pupils & students with the skills required in a more knowledge-based and higher technology working future

• Consider a more formal reporting of work-related offer in School Improvement Plans and record successes in the self evaluation

• Identify further ways to engage with employers in addition to existing connections

• Consider how the current school curriculum be adjusted to make sure that pupils & students engaged in more academic courses also benefit from a base of vocational knowledge

• Develop closer involvement of employers in their day to day activities so that students get a clearer understanding of the world of work?

• Consider other ways (in addition to Diplomas) of offering an alternative curriculum work-focussed offer within the 14-19 phase?

one year on – enfield’s skills and employment strategy revisited

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