one stand at a time silvicultural options for stand...
TRANSCRIPT
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Dr. Jim Guldin
Supervisory Ecologist and Project Leader,
Ecology and Management of Southern Pines
SRS-4159, Southern Research Station
US Forest Service
Hot Springs, Arkansas
One stand at a time—
silvicultural options
for stand-level response
to climate change
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Questions about the
response of forests to
climate change have been
addressed with planning,
prediction, and modeling
the effects of climate
change on forested
landscapes
Recent synthesis :
April-May 2008
Journal of Forestry
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From the April/May 2008 issue, Journal of Forestry:
“Earth is currently warmer than it has been in the recent past.”
“Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the 12 warmest years since 1850”
“Projections estimate that global average surface temperatures will be 3.25° to 7.2°F warmer at the end of the 21st century”
Changes in
temperature and
carbon dioxide (Source:
US EPA 2008).
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From Harper’s Index, April 2013:
“Number of reports of record-high
temperatures by US cities in 2012:
362
Number of reports of record lows:
0”
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According to interpretations of FIA data,
half of the species in the eastern US will
occupy sites for which other species are
better adapted in the future
Loblolly pine,
south Arkansas
Longleaf pine,
east Texas
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So, maybe society should manage
ecosystems not for where they are, but
where they might be in a new climate
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They argue that
our response to
climate change
must be a
management
program with
‘assisted
migration’ as a
key element
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The goal would be to improve upon the 10-
50 km /100 yr rates of species migration that
are constrained by current and future
fragmented landscapes
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Q: So, do we have any quantifiable data
or robust case studies in the Southern
US that can guide us about a landscape
management approach to climate
change?
In other words—what experience do
foresters have in removing an existing
forest and replacing it with a different
forest?
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A: Yep. The past 60 years of pine
plantation forestry in the South!
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There are practical lessons to be learned
in this case study, specifically:
Where has it been applied? By whom?
Over how much area? And at what cost?
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Covnersion rate:
There are 200 million acres in Southern
forestlands. Conversion to plantations:
1950-2010 35 million acres
2010-2050 15 million acres
1950-2050 50 million acres;
25% of South’s forests
average 500K ac/yr for 100 yrs
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Mostly on Forest Industry land, and now
REIT-TIMO land—easy to plant, no
political issues about it really
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What has it cost?
1950-2010 $250/ac $9 billion
2010-2050 $400/ac $6 billion
1950-2050 $15 billion to convert
25% of South’s forests
average $150 million annually
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Who paid for it? Mill owners, and now
REITs and TIMOs—to assure fiber
supply and returns to stockholders.
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OK. Thinking about those numbers and
that land base.
Let’s assume we want to convert
another 25% of Southern forests to
“certified” climate-change-resistant
stands that support new species, not the
ones currently found there.
What will it cost, and where will it be?
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Cost
Harvest 50 million ac in 50 years, and
replant with certified climate change
resistant species:
Cut 1 million ac annually
Reforest at $400/ac
costs $400 million annually
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Land base:
All the industry-REIT-TIMO land is
already converted, so….the next 25%
comes from NIPF land or Government
land like National Forests.
Under what legal authority?
NIPF—cost share? Eminent domain?
National Forests—rewrite NFMA, NEPA,
ESA?
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Federal program or policy?
Is the current Administration or
Congress likely to invest in a climate
change forest mitigation strategy in the
South to the tune of:
$400 million per year?
on 1 million acres per year?
for the next 50 years?
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Nursery capacity and practice:
Do we have production capacity to
produce 400-500 million seedling
annually for any southern forest species
other than loblolly pine?
Do we know the practical details about
collecting seed and propagating the top
10 species in the South, much less
species like Carolina ash or even catalpa?
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Research basis?
Do we have solid research on how to
enable species migration of forest
ecosystems at risk
-not just dominant overstory
-minor tree species components?
-perennials?
-annuals?
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Cost No
Land base No
Federal law or policy Heck no
Nursery practice No way
Research basis OMG No!
Is the Nation ready for a major climate
change response in forested ecosystems?
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So what do we do?
We work in stands already being
managed
We modify management in those
stands in ways that are robust in the
context if changing climate
We acknowledge that we will only
affect a small percentage (10%) of the
South’s forest land
We hope for the best on the rest
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Little thought has been given to how, and what kind of, stand-level silvicultural practices would be appropriate to apply in an environment of climate change, and how a forester might apply them.
Ernest Lovett and the late Dr. John Gray inspect the 2004 harvest at Crossett EF
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A PRACTICAL approach to managing
southern forests for climate change:
1) We work with forest stands currently
being managed or landowners willing to
start
2) We work on resistance, resilience,
restoration, rehabilitation, and recovery
3) We do what we know—modify
existing silvicultural practices that will
work in a changing climate.
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First, do no harm—
• Anything done in the name of
climate change should also be
robust in the context of the
current climate and stand
conditions
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• Why? The most difficult year
for a new age cohort will be
the first growing season
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Secondly,
How many silvicultural systems
are carried from establishment
at year 0 to rotation age R??
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IMO--not many!
Industry land—silvicultural systems
change every time land
ownership changes
Exceptions—when rotation age is
less than length of ownership
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The sale of forest industry lands to
TIMO-REIT ownership has been the
most recent of many recent changes
on the ‘forest industry’ land base.
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NIPF land—Nearly no examples,
because of estate tax issues--
landowner’s life is far less than
age to maturity of timber
The hard truth on NIPF lands-
long-term management plans
only rarely survive the ownership
transition from parents to
children
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The few examples
involve estate
planning into
irrevocable
easements,
trusts and
foundations
e.g.,
Pioneer Forest,
central Missouri
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Govt land, such as National Forests?
The challenge is ‘decennial micromanagement’! Every 10-yr compartment exam redraws stand boundaries and changes existing silvicultural plans.
The exception-
Significant work for habitat restoration of endangered species
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A classic example—the shortleaf pine-
bluestem management area on the
Ouachita NF, dedicated to RCWs
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IMO:
At the most, 5-10% of the
200MM ac of southern forestland
is managed under the same
silvicultural system from year 0
to maturity.
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IMO:
Silvicultural practice in the future is the art and science of practices that
-improve stand conditions in the short term, and
-create, not limit, options for current or future landowners in the long term
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IMO:
This can be developed into an
empirical decision model for
silvicultural practices that are
resistant, resilient, or robust in
the context of changing
climatic conditions.
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Bottom line—
Manage for diverse stands and
ecosystems, regardless of the
stage of the extant silvicultural
system in light of the condition
of the current stand.
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Manage for diverse stands and
ecosystems
Elements of
diversity
Elements of the silvicultural system
Regeneration
treatments Intermediate
treatments
Reproduction
cutting
methods
Genetic
diversity High Low Low
Species
diversity Moderate Moderate Low
Structural
diversity Low Moderate Moderate
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Thoughts parallel concepts of forest
sustainability
The first principle of sustainability at
the stand level–
Secure regeneration of the desired
species after reproduction cutting
Regeneration treatments
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Genetic diversity
Diversity of naturally-regenerated stock
-seed-origin
-sprout origin
Diversity of artificially-regenerated stock
-planted
-direct-seeded
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Natural
regeneration
Sprout origin Seed origin
Post-hravest
establishment
Advanced
regeneration
Stump
sprouts
Seedling
sprouts
Requires choices to optimize genetic and
species diversity of natural regeneration
cohort
More diverse Less diverse
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Natural regeneration from seed
• Genetically variable, result of outcrossing
• Rely on natural seedfall or advance growth from seedfall
• Especially important in the oaks
• Seedling sprouts perfectly acceptable for genetic diversity if developed from advance growth of seed origin
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Natural regeneration--stump sprouts
Genetically
identical to parent trees
Adapted to local site conditions
May not be the best model under changing climatic conditions
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Biggest implications—oak regeneration
May need to increase reliance on seed-origin seedling sprout advance growth
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Artificial regeneration—planting (pines)
First year is toughest for survival:
Plant stock appropriate for the
expected conditions
Site prepare for first-year survival;
containerized stock?
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Artificial regeneration—planting (pines)
Unlike traditional practice—identify planting stock origin and ensure genetic diversity in seedlings being planted on a given site
Plant mixtures of species, such as longleaf, loblolly and shortleaf in east Texas sites?
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Direct seeding
Same arguments as planting stock
from the genetic perspective—ensure
diversity of seed
Could be used :
If a species absent from the site
Where natural seedfall is unlikely
to occur
To develop mixtures with
multiple species or genetic stock
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Moving planting stock?
Guidance found in the old Southwide Pine
Seed Source Study:
Seed sources can be moved northward a
modest distance (<~200 miles) to colder
conditions, where they will outgrow local
sources
If moved too far, they suffer cold damage
The most important climatic variable
associated with north-south variation in
growth in provenance tests of southern
pines was average yearly minimum
temperature at the source
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20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan
Feb Mar
AprM
ay Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Annua
l
Month
Mean
min
imu
m t
em
p., d
eg
. F
Alexandria LA
Hot Springs AR
Springfield MO
Average annual monthly temperature, Crossett EF
high low
1931-1963 76.9º F 51.1º F
1970-2004 74.9º F 53.0º F
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To enhance species diversity—
Underplanting or enrichment planting
A tool to restore
native species absent from the
stand because of historical activity or
management decisions
Managed hardwood stand
with shortleaf pine stumps
Pioneer Forest, fall 2004
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Underplanting or enrichment planting
Can be used to add species in a stand
based on expected changes
There are technical questions about
planting to achieve partial stocking, to
fill in openings smaller than 2 tree
heights in diameter, and survival under
closed canopy conditions
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Pay attention to silvics!
Trait - - - Characteristic - - -
Distribution Limited Wide
Scattered Continuous
Pollination vector Insect Wind
Seed dispersal Limited Effective
Reproduction Vegetative Sexual
Habitat specificity Specialized Broad
Seral stage Pioneer Climax
Increasing genetic variability with increasing
number of characteristics to the right-hand side in
the table (Myking 2002)
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Manage for diverse stands and
ecosystems:
Elements of
diversity
Elements of the silvicultural system
Regeneration
treatments
Intermediate
treatments
Reproduction
cutting
methods
Genetic
diversity High Low Low
Species
diversity Moderate Moderate Low
Structural
diversity Low Moderate Moderate
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Intermediate treatments
Maintain resistance and resilience of existing stands to effects of climate change
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Structural diversity
Indicators:
Canopy strata—one, two, many
Outputs:
Ability to resist effects of climate
change, or recover if stands are
adversely affected
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Thinning
Maintain high individual tree vigor, reduce density-dependent mortality
Maintain stocking at acceptable levels below full stocking
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Thinned stands have low hazard to SPB, but admittedly susceptible to
other disturbance events
Thinned pine stand, age 15
PCT Study 99, Crossett EF
Thinned pine stand damaged during
Dec 2000 ice storm
Ouachita NF
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Prescribed burning
Maintain stands with reduced midstory and understory prairie flora
Maintain conditions resistant to loss from wildfire
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Prescribed burning is important in FS lands—hopefully, scale and scope can continue
Pine-bluestem stand
Poteau RD, Ouachita NF
An erstwhile
silviculturist
ignites a
prescribed burn
Poteau RD,
Ouachita NF
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Presalvage, salvage, sanitation cutting
Decide upon rehabilitation or recovery based on the extent of damage
If recovery is indicated, feed back to regeneration decisions
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Resilience: stands that recover when changes affect them
Longleaf pine stand after Hurricane Katrina
Harrison Experimental Forest, Saucier MS
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For example, understocked stand rehabilitation research informs decisions about recovery from windstorm events
SI=90
SI=75
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 5 10 15
Time, years
Perc
ent sto
ckin
g
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 5 10 15
Time, years
Perc
ent
sto
ckin
g
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Manage for diverse stands and
ecosystems
Elements
of
diversity
Elements of the silvicultural system
Regeneratio
n treatments
Intermediate
treatments
Reproduction
cutting
methods Genetic
diversity High Low Low
Species
diversity Moderate Moderate Low
Structural
diversity Low Moderate Moderate
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Structural diversity
Indicators:
Number and distribution of age
cohorts
Stand tables, models, stocking charts
Outputs:
Ability to resist effects of climate
change, or recover if stands are
adversely affected
Reproduction cutting methods
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Reproduction
cutting
Even-aged
methods
Uneven-aged
methods
Clearcutting
method
Seed-tree
methods
Shelterwood
method
Group
selection
Single-tree
selection
Timing of new age cohorts—
more frequently may be better!
45-120 yrs
25-80 yrs
7-20 yrs
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Two very different alternatives:
Longleaf pine woodland
Classic 1- to 2-aged stand
Apalachicola NF, FL
Classic uneven-aged stand
after 75 years of management
Mixed loblolly-shortleaf pine
Crossett EF, AR
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The alternative of no treatment
inappropriate for managed stands
A problem of stand development
Not a retrogression to pre-
Columbian conditions
Static stand development is
inconsistent with changing
environment
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Silvicultural strategies to consider at
the stand and landscape scale
SUMMARY
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1. Manage forest composition and
structure to improve the resistance to
disturbance and the ability to recover
from disturbance
2. Modify silvicultural practices to improve
diversity of age and species composition
3. Manage forest density for optimum
resistance to drought, fire and wind
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4. Factor in the possibility of increased
stress when making decisions about
intermediate treatments (ex. thinning and
burning)
-combine objectives to improve
compositional, structural and genetic
diversity in single treatments
5. Time harvests and site prep practices to
expected seed crops, or to release
established advance growth, for species in
the desired composition
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6. Plan for and use disturbance events as
opportunities to improve forest resilience
to climate change
7. Consider “enrichment plantings” within
existing stands to improve species and
genetic diversity
8. Allow a mixture of natural and planted
regeneration.
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9. Maximize genetic diversity within the
limits of the desired composition
-natural vs planted
-coppice vs seed
-bulk lot vs open pollinated vs full-sib
-local vs moved source)
10. Minimize the use of single sources for
clonal planting stock.
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11. Monitor regeneration and early
development success of desired species.
12. Experimental or “banked” plantings
outside the natural ranges and standard
guides for seed sources (test pollination,
cold hardiness and drought resistance).
13. Consider species and plant material
sources outside and from dryer areas than
the immediate geographic area.
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14. Don’t forget to hedge your bet—
Anything done silviculturally to capture
climatic conditions we think will occur
in the future should also be robust in
today’s climate in case our predictions
are wrong!