one damn thing after another cascading global change dr bob scholes csir fellow unisa college of...
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One damn thing after another cascading global change
Dr Bob ScholesCSIR Fellow
UNISA
College of Economic and Management Science
25 November 2009
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© CSIR 2009 www.csir.co.za
• Global financial crisis • Peak oil, fuel price hikes, energy crisis
in South Africa• Food price escalation, real hunger
affecting nearly a fifth of the world’s population
• Water shortages in many parts of the world
• The sixth extinction crisis….
Have you noticed that everything seems to be going wrong at once?
What is going on???
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1. A globally-connected world
Climate change•Temperature•Rainfall•Sea level rise•winds•Means and extremes
Biogeochemical change•Atmospheric CO2
•Greenhouse gases•N deposition•Sediment transport•P loading
Land cover change•Cropland expansion•Degradation•Deforestation
Biodiversity change•Extinctions•Domesticates•Invasives
Populationgrowth
Urbanisation•Coastal trend•megacities
Human development•Poverty alleviation
•Per capita consumption level
•Education
Technology development•Fossil fuel based energy systems•Tranport systems•High-input agriculture•Medical technology
Economic development•Globalisation of trade
Marine resources•Overfishing•Pollution•Habitat damage
Non-human factors•Orbital forcing•Solar activity•Tectonics etc
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2. The world is a complex, coupled human-ecological system
• Bode’s Law- When you suppress the high-frequency, small disturbances in a
system, the amplitude of the low-frequency events increases- Examples:- River canalisation often leads to bigger floods (hurricane Katrina)- Fire suppression leads to uncontrollable conflagrations (Victoria)- Financial securitisation instruments led to a meltdown (bank crisis)
• Overconnectivity- As connectivity in systems exceeds a critical threshold, it becomes
much more likely that shocks will propagate through them- Examples:- Global pandemics: AIDS, SARS, H1N1- Global speculative bubbles and consequent deflation
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Can developing countries rise to an acceptable level of human development without overloading the global environment?
WWF 2008 Africa : Ecological Footprint and Human Wellbeing WWF– Gland, Switzerland and Global Footprint Network (GFN), Oakland, California USA.ISBN 978-2-88085-290-0
Human Development Index
Eco
log
ical
fo
otp
rin
t
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Adapting to a hotter, stormier future
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Africa projections2080-2099, 21 models, A1B scenario
+4ºC+2 ºC-20%
+20%
Temperature Rainfall
Source:IPCC AR4 WG1 ch 11
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Food supply in
southern
Africa
Fisher, G et al (2002) Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability IIASA
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Observations: Fires in forestry plantations in southern Africa
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Predicted wave run-up as a result of sea level rise and storm changes
Requirements for predicting coastlines include: Improved understanding of interconnected coastal/physical processes (e.g. the interaction between sea-level rise and changing storm intensities); An accurate profile response model.Drawing a contour line is insufficient: E.g. more realistic run-upprediction techniques are required as illustrated in the figure above.
Present storm run-up linePot. future storm run-up line due to SLRPot. future storm run-up line due to SLR & wave increase
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Adapt or mitigate?
1 3 4 5 62
(Global equilibrium temperature – preindustrial temperature) ºC
Cost ofImpact andMitigation
% of GlobalGDP
Alreadyincurred
Commit-ted
11
5
Total cost curve
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The effect of procrastination
1 3 4 5 62
(Global equilibrium temperature – preindustrial temperature) ºC
Cost ofImpact andMitigation
% of GlobalGDP
Alreadyincurred
Commit-ted
11
5
Total cost curve
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Mind the gap!Emissions from South Africa through 2050
Graphic: SA Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (2007)
Staying competitive in a low-carbon economy
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Co
st o
f m
itig
atio
n (
R/t
CO
2eq)
200
0
-50
100
4 8
Mitigation achieved (billion tonnes CO2-eq)
% of gap between ‘Growth Without Constraints’ and ‘Required by Science’
0 3010 20
‘For free’ ‘Technology tweaks’ ‘Market measures’‘Fairy
godmother’
Co
st o
f m
itig
atio
n (
R/t
CO
2eq)
200
0
-50
100
4 8
Mitigation achieved (billion tonnes CO2-eq)
% of gap between ‘Growth Without Constraints’ and ‘Required by Science’
0 3010 20
‘For free’ ‘Technology tweaks’ ‘Market measures’‘Fairy
godmother’
Many mitigation options exist
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Year2003 2050
2
1
0
Em
issi
on
s (b
illi
on
to
nn
es C
O2e
q)
Growth without constraints
Required by science
Technical solutions
Two bridges are needed to close the gap
Technicalbridge
Ethicalbridge
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• 3 C mean global temperature rise is regarded as ‘dangerous climate change’- We have already incurred 0.7 C and are committed to
~ 1 C more- Staying below 3 C will require global emissions to
peak by ~ 2020, then decline to below half of 1990 levels by 2050• If developed countries are to get room to increase
their emissions initially, developed countries need to decrease theirs by 90%
• Polar regions, small island states, Africa, the Amazon and coral reefs suffer serious damage by that stage
• If we aim at 3 C, there is a high chance we will actually exceed it
Persuading the world to take unified action to keep global warming tolerable
© CSIR 2009 www.csir.co.za
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