oncology lag-3; the next emerging checkpoint in immune ... · license in 2015) and is being...

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EQUITY RESEARCH COMPANY UPDATE Jason McCarthy, Ph.D. (212) 895-3556 [email protected] Jason Kolbert (212) 895-3516 [email protected] Biotechnology IMMP - NASDAQ February 1, 2018 Intraday Price 02/1/2018 $1.79 Rating: Buy 12-Month Target Price: $7.00 52-Week Range: $1.25 - $3.24 Market Cap (M): 43 Shares O/S (M): 24.0 Float: 0.0% Avg. Daily Volume (000): 55 Debt (M): $0.0 Dividend: $0.00 Dividend Yield: 0.00% Risk Profile: Speculative Fiscal Year End: June Total Expenses ('000) 2017A 2018E 2019E H1 3,716 6,437 6,759 H2 6,917 6,974 7,322 FY 10,633 13,411 14,081 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Price Volume Price (USD) Volume (MM) IMMP Source: Factset Immutep Limited Buy LAG-3; The Next Emerging Checkpoint in Immune Oncology Summary Immutep announced it received a $1M milestone payment from China partner EOC Pharma (private) for IMP321 (eftilagimod alpha), Immutep's soluble LAG-3 candidate. An IND was filed in China in December 2017. We estimate Immutep currently has $12M on the balance sheet (including the EOC payment) and with a quarterly burn rate of $3M-$3.5M, has runway into 2H18. Time to focus on LAG-3 - Immune oncology continues to migrate towards combination approaches, particularly for checkpoints. The question is which checkpoint will emerge to be combined with the PD1s and PD-L1s. In our view, the likely candidate could be LAG-3 as companies like Bristol-Myers Squibb, which has a deep pipeline of checkpoints has prioritized their LAG-3 (rilatlimab) for full development (9 ongoing clinical programs). Immutep may be right behind Bristol and has four LAG-3 assets, one of which (IMP701) has been licensed by Novartis (undisclosed milestones and royalties, we assume single digits given the early stage at the time of the license in 2015) and is being developed in combination with Novartis's PD1, PDR001. Immutep also has an in-house LAG-3 program (IMP321) in clinical development for metastatic breast cancer (P2b, combination with chemotherapy) and metastatic melanoma (P1 combination with Keytruda). More data for IMP321 is expected in 2018 and we expect data to emerge from Novartis over 2018 and 2019 (see attachment below). Conclusion: How big is the LAG-3 space? Like the PD1 and PD-L1 space, there is room for multiple players, in our view. With a great big Pharma partner in Novartis, we see Immutep ideally positioned to capture value in what we see as the next evolution of checkpoint inhibitors. Details Large indications and the right partners. Novartis (NVS - NR) has licensed IMP701 for development as a combination therapy with PD1 inhibitors in solid tumors. The ongoing clinical study in multiple cancer types has (as of January 2018) expanded to enroll another 99 patients, now N=515. Novartis will also initiate another N=160 program in hematological and solid cancer in combination with its PD1 inhibitor PDR001. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK - NR) is evaluating IMP731 in a phase I study in psoriasis with that trial expected to complete in March 2018. Immutep will receive single-digit royalties from each partnership. The lead in-house program, IMP321, an antigen-presenting cell (APC) activator that ramps up T-cell production following chemotherapy, already demonstrated POC in breast cancer and is currently in a phase IIb registration study. IMP321 could launch in 2020. A phase I study of an IMP321 combination with Keytruda in melanoma patients is also positive so far and demonstrated tumor reductions in 58% of patients (7/12). (more data: 2018). IMP321 is Immutep's lead LAG-3 candidate, and it’s in development as an immune adjuvant or immune stimulator. IMP321 is a soluble dimeric recombinant form of LAG-3Ig, a fusion protein used to increase the immune response to tumors by stimulating dendritic cells through high affinity binding to MHC class II molecules on the dendritic cell surface. LAG-3 is one of two proteins shown to be able to properly condition dendritic cells (and monocytes) to undergo maturation and step up the stimulation of antigen targeting T-cells (the other is CD40 ligand). What’s important to note is that both LAG-3 and CD40 can do this without inflammation. IMP321 was developed by Dr. Frédéric Triebel in the late 1990s as a dendritic-cell activator. When used at low doses, it can be used as a T-cell adjuvant for cancer vaccines. At higher doses, IMP321 can be combined with cancer chemotherapy to ramp up the immune response by driving dendritic cells and monocytes to increase tumor antigen presentation. SEE PAGES 7 - 8 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS

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Page 1: Oncology LAG-3; The Next Emerging Checkpoint in Immune ... · license in 2015) and is being developed in combination with Novartis's PD1, PDR001. Immutep also has an in-house LAG-3

EQUITY RESEARCHCOMPANY UPDATE

Jason McCarthy, Ph.D.(212) [email protected]

Jason Kolbert(212) [email protected]

Biotechnology

IMMP - NASDAQ February 1, 2018

Intraday Price 02/1/2018 $1.79Rating: Buy12-Month Target Price: $7.0052-Week Range: $1.25 - $3.24Market Cap (M): 43Shares O/S (M): 24.0Float: 0.0%Avg. Daily Volume (000): 55Debt (M): $0.0Dividend: $0.00Dividend Yield: 0.00%Risk Profile: SpeculativeFiscal Year End: June

Total Expenses ('000) 2017A 2018E 2019EH1 3,716 6,437 6,759H2 6,917 6,974 7,322FY 10,633 13,411 14,081

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

1Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18

1.4

1.2

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

Price Volume

Price (USD) Volume (MM)IMMP

Source: Factset

Immutep Limited BuyLAG-3; The Next Emerging Checkpoint in ImmuneOncologySummary

• Immutep announced it received a $1M milestone payment from China partnerEOC Pharma (private) for IMP321 (eftilagimod alpha), Immutep's solubleLAG-3 candidate. An IND was filed in China in December 2017. We estimateImmutep currently has $12M on the balance sheet (including the EOCpayment) and with a quarterly burn rate of $3M-$3.5M, has runway into 2H18.

• Time to focus on LAG-3 - Immune oncology continues to migrate towardscombination approaches, particularly for checkpoints. The question is whichcheckpoint will emerge to be combined with the PD1s and PD-L1s. In ourview, the likely candidate could be LAG-3 as companies like Bristol-MyersSquibb, which has a deep pipeline of checkpoints has prioritized their LAG-3(rilatlimab) for full development (9 ongoing clinical programs).

• Immutep may be right behind Bristol and has four LAG-3 assets, one ofwhich (IMP701) has been licensed by Novartis (undisclosed milestones androyalties, we assume single digits given the early stage at the time of thelicense in 2015) and is being developed in combination with Novartis'sPD1, PDR001. Immutep also has an in-house LAG-3 program (IMP321) inclinical development for metastatic breast cancer (P2b, combination withchemotherapy) and metastatic melanoma (P1 combination with Keytruda).More data for IMP321 is expected in 2018 and we expect data to emerge fromNovartis over 2018 and 2019 (see attachment below).

• Conclusion: How big is the LAG-3 space? Like the PD1 and PD-L1 space, thereis room for multiple players, in our view. With a great big Pharma partner inNovartis, we see Immutep ideally positioned to capture value in what we seeas the next evolution of checkpoint inhibitors.

DetailsLarge indications and the right partners. Novartis (NVS - NR) has licensedIMP701 for development as a combination therapy with PD1 inhibitors in solidtumors. The ongoing clinical study in multiple cancer types has (as of January2018) expanded to enroll another 99 patients, now N=515. Novartis will also initiateanother N=160 program in hematological and solid cancer in combination with itsPD1 inhibitor PDR001. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK - NR) is evaluating IMP731 in a phaseI study in psoriasis with that trial expected to complete in March 2018. Immutepwill receive single-digit royalties from each partnership. The lead in-house program,IMP321, an antigen-presenting cell (APC) activator that ramps up T-cell productionfollowing chemotherapy, already demonstrated POC in breast cancer and is currentlyin a phase IIb registration study. IMP321 could launch in 2020. A phase I study of anIMP321 combination with Keytruda in melanoma patients is also positive so far anddemonstrated tumor reductions in 58% of patients (7/12). (more data: 2018).

IMP321 is Immutep's lead LAG-3 candidate, and it’s in development as an immuneadjuvant or immune stimulator. IMP321 is a soluble dimeric recombinant form ofLAG-3Ig, a fusion protein used to increase the immune response to tumors bystimulating dendritic cells through high affinity binding to MHC class II molecules onthe dendritic cell surface. LAG-3 is one of two proteins shown to be able to properlycondition dendritic cells (and monocytes) to undergo maturation and step up thestimulation of antigen targeting T-cells (the other is CD40 ligand). What’s importantto note is that both LAG-3 and CD40 can do this without inflammation. IMP321was developed by Dr. Frédéric Triebel in the late 1990s as a dendritic-cell activator.When used at low doses, it can be used as a T-cell adjuvant for cancer vaccines.At higher doses, IMP321 can be combined with cancer chemotherapy to ramp upthe immune response by driving dendritic cells and monocytes to increase tumorantigen presentation.

SEE PAGES 7 - 8 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS

Page 2: Oncology LAG-3; The Next Emerging Checkpoint in Immune ... · license in 2015) and is being developed in combination with Novartis's PD1, PDR001. Immutep also has an in-house LAG-3

LAG-3, the next checkpoint. Immunotherapy continues to become widely adopted across multiple cancer types from checkpoints like PD-1,

PD-L1 and CTLA4 to CAR-T therapies. The immune oncology space is expected to generate over $34B by 2024, with checkpoints accounting

for the majority of sales. Targeting checkpoints to “take the brakes off” of anti-cancer immune cells and mitigate immunosuppressive properties

of the tumor microenvironment is a fundamental focus of the immune oncology space and novel combinations of immune therapeutic agents are

likely to continue to integrate into the treatment paradigm. While much of the focus, particularly for checkpoints has been PD1, PD-L1 and CTLA-

4, the question is what checkpoint comes next and what is the effect of targeting multiple checkpoints at once (see Nature paper review of

checkpoints by Drew Pardoll – LINK) In our view, LAG-3 or Lymphocyte-activation gene-3, could be the next checkpoint to emerge. Leading that

effort is Bristol-Myers Squibb with a LAG-3 checkpoint (relatlimab) in 9 trials across multiple cancer types, including combination therapy with the

company’s PD1 checkpoint Opdivo. Bristol, as outlined in the company’s presentation in January 2018 (see exhibit 4) has prioritized rilatlimab

(LAG-3) for full development. However, Immutep, which has a portfolio of LAG-3 products, has partnerships with Novartis (oncology) and GSK

(autoimmune diseases). Immutep is a LAG-3 pure play company with four LAG-3 candidates, three of which are in six ongoing clinical trials and

more data is expected to emerge over 2018 and 2019, including from trials with partners Novartis (Exhibit 5) and GSK (Exhibit 6). As was the

case for the PD1 and PD-L1s, there is likely to be room for multiple players in the LAG-3 space.

Exhibit 1. Immune Oncology Landscape: CTLA-4, PD1 and PD-L1 are approved for multiple indications and PD-1 blockade has become a

therapeutic backbone. However, only 15-40% of patients respond (depending on cancer type and other underlying factors) to monotherapy, and

combinations of Opdivo and Yervoy have demonstrated toxicities. As such new combinations with efficacy and a better safety profile like with

LAG-3 are in development from Bristol as well as Immutep’s partner Novartis. Immutep is also developing a soluble LAG-3, IMP321 in

combination with chemotherapy or PD1 checkpoints.

Source: Immutep Presentation

Exhibit 2. LAG-3 Therapeutic Landscape.

Source: Immutep Presentation

2Maxim Group LLC

Immutep Limited (IMMP)

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Exhibit 3. Increasing Number of Clinical Trials Targeting LAG-3. Since 2013, the number of clinical trials targeting LAG-3 has grown from 1

to 21 in 2017. Immutep’s three assets, IMP321, IMP701 and IMP731 are in a combined six ongoing clinical trials.

Exhibit 4. LAG-3 as a Therapeutic Target. LAG-3 is widely expressed on tumor infiltrating T cells (TILs) and cytotoxic T cells. As such it’s an

ideal target for checkpoint blockade. Functionally, LAG-3 is similar to CTLA-4 (target of Yervoy) and PD-1 (Keytruda, Opdivo). Shown below: 1-

Positive regulation of antigen presenting cells (APC) increases antigen presentation to cytotoxic CD8 T cells (tumor killing) and 2- Negative

regulation by the tumor leads to a decrease in T cells.

Source: Immutep Presentation

Exhibit 5. Targeting LAG-3- In-house (IMP321) and partnered programs to Novartis and GSK. Targeting LAG-3 has potential in multiple

oncology (Novartis partnership) and autoimmune indications (GSK partnership), as well as an antigen presenting cell activator (Immutep, in-

house).

Source: Immutep Presentation

3Maxim Group LLC

Immutep Limited (IMMP)

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Exhibit 6. Bristol-Myers Squibb has Prioritized LAG-3 Development. Behind Opdivo and Yervoy, Bristol continues to develop anti-LAG 3

and has prioritized this as a lead immune oncology asset from its portfolio of molecules (Shown Below). Bristol is conducting 9 clinical programs,

including combinations with Opdivo, which could lead to registration in the coming years. Immutep, by comparison has three LAG-3 assets in

various stages of development and partnerships to both Novartis and GSK.

Source: Modified (red arrow) from Bristol-Myers Squibb presentation at JP Morgan Conference 2018.

Exhibit 7. Immutep Pipeline of LAG-3 Assets.

Source: Immutep presentation

4Maxim Group LLC

Immutep Limited (IMMP)

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Exhibit 8. Novartis (Immutep’s Partner) Continues to Advance Immutep’s LAG-3, IMP701. Novartis is conducting a study in patients with

advanced malignancies, evaluating Immuntep’s LAG-3 checkpoint IMP701 (LAG525) alone or in combination with Novartis’ PD1 checkpoint

PDR001. The trial, which started in 2015, recently expanded to add another 99 patients, now N=515. The study completion date is April 2019

(TRIAL LINK). Novartis is also initiating a new trial combining PDR001 with LAG525 in patients (N=160) with advanced hematological

malignancies and solid tumors (TRIAL LINK). As per clinicaltrials.gov, the trial is expected to initiate February 8, 2018.

Source: Modified (red box) from Novartis YE-2017 Presentation, January 24, 2018.

Exhibit 9. LAG-3 Potential in Autoimmune Disease, Partnership with GSK. Shown below is the potential of targeting LAG-3 in multiple

autoimmune diseases. GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK) Program for autoimmune diseases is evaluating Immutep’s IMP731 (GSK2831781) LAG-3

antibody. A phase I program evaluating IMP731 in healthy subjects vaccinated with BCG vaccine and patients with plaque psoriasis. The study

will evaluate safety, PK/PD, immunogenicity and efficacy. The study is expected to complete in March 2018 (TRIAL LINK).

Source: Immutep presentation

IMP321 (eftilgimod alpha): IMP321 is being developed by Immutep for metastatic breast cancer (MBC) and metastatic melanoma, and an

investigator-sponsored study in advanced solid tumors is ongoing. IMP321 is a LAG-3Ig fusion protein, consisting of a dimer of LAG-3 that has

been engineered to be soluble rather than expressed on the surface of cells. IMP321 is an antigen presenting cell activator, or APC activator.

The role of an APC activator is to generate more efficacious T cell responses. IMP321 has demonstrated a positive safety profile and early

efficacy in both breast cancer and melanoma. IMP321 has the potential to be used in various combinations from checkpoints to chemotherapy.

5Maxim Group LLC

Immutep Limited (IMMP)

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Clinical Development: A European P2b trial in metastatic breast cancer in combination with chemotherapy, the AIPAC trial (Active

Immunotherapy PAClitaxel) is ongoing. The 15 patient safety run-in period was completed and the trial entered the randomized phase in early

2017. Patients are randomized to two arms, each with 113 patients to receive IMP321 + paclitaxel or placebo + paclitaxel. The primary readout

of the trial is expected in 1H19. In N=30 overall response rate of 47% with a disease control rate of 83%. In metastatic melanoma, the P2 TACTI-

Mel (Two ACTive Immunotherapeutics in Melanoma) study is ongoing evaluating IMP321 + Keytruda. The first dose escalation from 1mg to 6mg

was completed and confirmed by the DSMB in 2016. The second and third cohorts are fully recruited (December 2017) and data from all three

cohorts is expected in mid-2018.

Safety Profile: As of November 2017, 221 patients have been exposed to IMP321 (80 healthy, 141 cancer) with repeated dose schedule every

two weeks via subcutaneous injection. 119/141 patients received 1mg-6mg doses, with the highest at 30mg. 103/141 patients received IMP321

in combination with chemotherapy. As of the November cutoff, 53 SAEs in 38 patients were observed though not related to IMP321.

Exhibit 10. IMP321 + Chemotherapy in Metastatic Breast Cancer. In P1, N=30, the overall response rate was 47% with disease control rate

of 83%.

Source: Immutep presentation

Exhibit 11. IMP321 + Keytruda in Metastatic Melanoma. Shown below are scans of a patient before Keytruda, after keytruda monotherapy

and then following Keytruda + IMP321 over 64 weeks (total). All lesions disappeared and the patient had a confirmed complete response.

Source: Immutep presentation

6Maxim Group LLC

Immutep Limited (IMMP)

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DISCLOSURES

Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18

$20

$15

$10

$5

$0

Immutep Limited Rating History as of 01/31/2018

Closing Price Target Price

I:Buy:$13.3304/18/16

Buy:$16.6705/12/16

Buy:$7.0012/30/16

powered by: BlueMatrix

Maxim Group LLC Ratings Distribution As of: 01/31/18

% of CoverageUniverse with Rating

% of Rating for which FirmProvided Banking Services

in the Last 12 months

BuyFundamental metrics and/or identifiable catalysts exist such that weexpect the stock to outperform its relevant index over the next 12 months.

82% 34%

HoldFundamental metrics are currently at, or approaching, industry averages.Therefore, we expect this stock to neither significantly outperform norunderperform its relevant index over the next 12 months.

16% 17%

SellFundamental metrics and/or identifiable catalysts exist such that weexpect the stock to underperform its relevant index over the next 12months.

*See valuation section for company specific relevant indices

2% 25%

I, Jason McCarthy, Ph.D., attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security andissuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressedin this research report.

I, Jason Kolbert, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer.Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed inthis research report.

The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors,including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.

Maxim Group makes a market in Immutep Limited

Maxim Group managed/co-managed/acted as placement agent for an offering of the securities for Immutep Limited in the past 12 months.

Maxim Group received compensation for investment banking services from Immutep Limited in the past 12 months.

Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Immutep Limited in the next3 months.

IMMP: For Prima Biomed, we use the BTK (Biotechnology Index) as the relevant index.

7Maxim Group LLC

Immutep Limited (IMMP)

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Valuation MethodsIMMP: Our therapeutic model assumes a royalty structure for each LAG-3 product, initially with IMP701 and IMP321 in 2020 and followed byIMP731 in 2023. Our models assume risk adjustments for each product based on the stage(s) of development. Our therapeutic models assume arisk adjustment. We then apply a 30% discount to our free-cash-flow, discounted EPS, and sum-of-the-parts models, which are equally weightedto derive a price target.

Price Target and Investment RisksIMMP: Aside from general market and other economic risks, risks particular to our price target and rating for Prima Biomed include: (1) Development—To date, LAG-3 checkpoint modulators have not been approved; (2) Regulatory—The company's ongoing and future studies may not be sufficientto gain approval; (3) Commercial—The company lacks commercial infrastructure to support a launch if approved; (4) Financial—The company isnot yet profitable and may need to raise additional capital to fund operations.

RISK RATINGS

Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility.

Speculative – Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balancesheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility:Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with thepossibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors.

High – Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cashflow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price Volatility: The price volatility ofcompanies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individualinvestors.

Medium – Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cashflow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average.

Low – Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positivecash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.

DISCLAIMERS

Some companies that Maxim Group LLC follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk andmore volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Maxim Group LLC research reports may not besuitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred toherein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance.

This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidentialfor the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, withoutthe prior written consent of Maxim Group, LLC (“Maxim”).

Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Maxim to be reliable, but Maxim makesno representation as to their accuracy or completeness. The aforementioned sentence does not apply to the disclosures required by FINRA Rule2241. Maxim accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability doesnot apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Maxim. This report is not to be relied upon insubstitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Maxim may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with,and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analyticalmethods of the analysts who prepared them and Maxim is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention ofany recipient of this report.

Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, ismade regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publicationby Maxim and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this report can fall aswell as rise. The value of securities is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of suchsecurities. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securitiesrecommended, offered or sold by Maxim: (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company; (2) are not deposits or other obligationsof any insured depository institution; and (3) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of principal invested. Indeed, in the caseof some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances, you may be required to paymore money to support these losses.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST

8Maxim Group LLC

Immutep Limited (IMMP)

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