on the oceanography of brazil’s equatorial margin: hazardous offshore currents and strategies for...
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By Dave Fratantoni, Andre Gellers, and Neha SharmaTRANSCRIPT
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On the Oceanography of Brazil’s Equatorial Margin: Hazardous Offshore Currents and Strategies for Mitigation
Dave Fratantoni, Andre Gellers, and Neha Sharma Horizon Marine, Inc. Massachusetts, USA
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• Brazil’s Equatorial Margin has both extraordinary development opportuni;es and significant opera;onal challenges.
• Strong and variable ocean currents are a primary concern.
• Exchange between blue-‐water and coastal regimes is poorly understood.
• A regional ocean observing and predic;on system can provide improved situa;onal awareness to mi;gate the impact of strong currents on offshore opera;ons, enhance safety, and protect the environment.
Conclusions
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Outline
• Geographic Context and Opera;onal Challenges • Oceanographic Environment
• Strategies for Mi;ga;on
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Geographic Context
BEM poten;al may be similar to West Africa Zaedyus find in French Guiana is encouraging Coastline is extensive, sensi;ve
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Total Quieroz Galvao BP BHP Billiton
Quieroz Galvao
BG BP OGP BHP Billiton
ExxonMobil Chevron BP OGP BHP Billiton
OGP Ecopetrol ExxonMobil Petrobras
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• Tides and ;dal currents • River ouQlow
Intense, persistent, and ver;cally-‐complex boundary current
Sensi;ve habitats
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• Tides and ;dal currents • River ouQlow
Intense, persistent, and ver;cally-‐complex boundary current
Sensi;ve habitats
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Operational Challenges ENSCO 8503 Tullow French Guiana
• Remote loca;on
• Extensive coastline with sensi;ve ecosystems
• Strong and variable ocean currents
• Poorly understood connec;ons between offshore and coastal regimes
Holding sta;on with 90% thrust
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Oceanographic Environment
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SeaWiFS Ocean Color
Satellite observa;ons are descrip;ve – but not always quan;ta;ve.
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12 years of surface dri/er trajectories (n=450)
Color = Current Speed
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• Direct measure of surface velocity, exchange processes
• Analog for anything dri]ing at the ocean surface
• Excellent for model valida;on
• Easy to deploy from a variety of plaQorms
• Inexpensive à robust sta;s;cs
Why surface dri/ers?
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Histogram of all dri]er-‐derived current measurements in each BEM region
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Average measured current speed as a func;on of WATER DEPTH Gray dots are all measurements
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Average measured current speed as a func;on of WATER DEPTH Gray dots are all measurements 1000 m
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1/3-‐deg Gridded log(NDATA)
Number of hourly velocity esAmates from dri/er posiAon record
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1/3-‐deg Gridded Current Velocity
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Numerical Ocean Model VELOCITY (kts)
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Models are ALWAYS wrong
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Models are ALWAYS wrong
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Models are ALWAYS wrong Models can be useful if constrained and validated by observa;ons We must know HOW the model is wrong, and WHEN it can be trusted
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Strategies for Mitigation
To mi;gate the impact of strong ocean currents and operate successfully in the equatorial margin we require enhanced situaAonal awareness, specifically: • Accurate measurement of currents TODAY
• Accurate forecast of currents TOMORROW
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Observa;ons Forecast Model
A regional observation and prediction system
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• In-‐situ measurements of ocean currents • Inexpensive • Sustainable • Spa;ally diverse
• Family of appropriate numerical models • Global and regional blue-‐water ocean models • Coastal models with accurate ;dal and river forcing • Local oil spill models for incident response
A regional observation and prediction system
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• Seismic Survey • Engineering Design • Installa;on • Diving • ROV Opera;ons • Pipelaying • Incident Response
A regional observation and prediction system
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ObservaAon System Status: 18 Sep 2014
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ObservaAon System Status: 18 Sep 2014
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• Surface dri]ers have been deployed in the BEM about every two weeks since July 2014
• Surveys u;lizing expendables (CTD, SV, CP) expected to begin in early 2015
• Regional 1/32o model run daily – working on dri]er data assimila;on
• Interpre;ve reports generated weekly
Observing System Summary
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• Brazil’s Equatorial Margin has both extraordinary development opportuni;es and significant opera;onal challenges.
• Strong and variable ocean currents are a primary concern.
• Exchange between blue-‐water and coastal regimes is poorly understood.
• A regional ocean observing and predic;on system can provide improved situa;onal awareness to mi;gate the impact of strong currents on offshore opera;ons, enhance safety, and protect the environment.
• A prototype observing and predicAon system is operaAonal TODAY
Conclusions
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Thank you
Dr. David M. Fratantoni Horizon Marine, Inc. Massachusejs, USA [email protected]
Mr. Andre Gellers Horizon Marine do Brasil Rio de Janeiro, Brasil [email protected]