olga chudinovskikh, lomonosov moscow state … · registration of all events related to a...
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Olga Chudinovskikh, Lomonosov Moscow state university, Russian Federation
2
mainly temporary and short-term ,
job search is the main purpose of the move. Annual flows of
temporary workers involve several million persons (6-10), about ½ million migrants change the country of permanent residence
mainly within the CIS area, and
Russia is the main destination country, followed by Kazakhstan.
In 2014 Russia issued 3.7 mln. permissions to work, Kazakhstan
33 thousand work permits. Not only the scale , but composition of
flows differs , especially – labour migration
Labour migration is an important
factor of economic development:
4 CIS countries are in the list of
top-10 remittances receiving countries in the world.
17% 17% 18% 18% 23% 25% 26% 29% 30%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2012 2013 2014
Top-10 countries by personal
remittances, received (% of GDP) Visa – free mobility prevails,
Eurasian economic union (5 states) - free
labour mobility zone
Migration related
indicators (including
connected with the
SDG agenda)seem to
be of a considerable
importance . However the main goal
of national statistics - to
measure the volumes
and possibly get some basic characteristics of
migrants
Uneven development of sources (due to
different roles of the countries) :
Sending countries (Central Asia, Transcaucasia, Moldova, Ukraine) mainly rely
on sample surveys, receiving countries
(Russia, Kazakhstan) – on administrative
sources
All countries (except Uzbekistan) conduct censuses following UN recommendations
(include both core and non-core questions,
on immigrants, internal migrations and often – on absent population).
Main limitations - Availability,
List of variables , Access
Different priorities:
sending countries
– to estimate
absent population
size,
receiving
countries – to
count in-
migrants
Sending countries (Armenia, Moldova, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan)-
Questions addressed to households with/without migrants – including return migrants, potential migrants and those who are abroad at the moment of interview.
Different time interval for migrants’ (3-5 years, or no time limit)
Support from international organizations
Receiving countries –
Kazakhstan and Russia-
Limited experience in migration data collection
Kazakhstan – a very good module in the past (LFS), no more implemented
Russia – monthly LFS : about 1 million
respondents per year, resident population
15-72 y.o.
No questions on place of birth, place of
residence N years prior to the survey,
(+year of migration),
Question on citizenship in dichotomous
form (RF – non-RF)
No questions on salaries
Probability sampling - considerable
underestimation of stock of foreigners
Quarterly Living standards survey (appr. 200
thous. resp. per year. No questions on place
of birth and citizenship
Directorate General on
Migration
Issues (MOI)
Federal
State
Statistics Service of
Russia (ROSSTAT)
Border (passport)
control (+ migration cards)
Ministry of education and science
MFA , consulates
Enrollment, graduation and stock of foreign students
Visa statistics (not available)
Citizenship acquisition
Consular registrations
Entries and exits of foreigners and nationals
Census *
•RESIDENCE PERMITS
•WORK PERMITS and patents
•FORCED MIGRATION
•CITIZENSHIP
•VISA EXTENTIONS
•ISSUANCE OF IDs (passports)
FOR THE RF CITIZENS
•REGISTRATION AT A PLACE OF
RESIDENCE AND STAY (BOTH
NATIONALS AND FOREIGNERS)
Primary data on migrants – paper
forms of arrival and departure
Forced
migrants
Annual
statistics of flows
Compatriots
resettlement
LFS
MIGRATION DATA PRODUCERS IN RUSSIA (green arrows - information
sent to Rosstat)
Educational institutions (tertiary & secondary)
Microcensus
2015 **
Labour migration
Data bases of the
other agencies :
•Tax Service
•Pension fund
Insurance
companies
Automated System
«Elections»
Civil registries
House maintenance
companies
Directorate General on Migration issues
(MOI) is a “super agency”, responsible
for permits (work and residence)
issuance, visa extensions, citizenship
acquisition, and – registration of both
foreigners and Russian citizens at a place
of stay and residence., (also issues national
IDs – (passports)
In progress : applied
software “Territory. It will
replace disintegrated
regional systems of RF
citizens registration
(different software, no
centralized data base)
Central data bank
of
foreigners
“Basic list of variables”
7
Information on physical
persons Variables (24):
• Name,
• Sex
• Place and date of birth
• Citizenship
• Ethnicity
• Religion
• Knowledge of Russian
language
• Social status
• Marital status etc.
Registration of all events related to a foreigner, starting from entry
to Russia and till citizenship acquisition.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Патенты 156.8 862.4 1283.4 1534.6 2379.4 1779.8 1492.2
ВКС 3.1 10.8 11.8 26.3 34.2 41.8 25.5
Обычные РНР (с КС) 1170 1219.8 1403.6 1368.3 1300.7 135.3 107.7
Всего 1329.9 2093 2698.8 2929.2 3714.3 1957 1625.4
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1000
Patents
Highly-skilled specialists
Regular work permits
Issued
Total
SDG:
Protect labour rights
of migrant workers ,
etc.
New regulations led
to considerable
increase of costs of
access to the
labour market (and
unfair taxation of
migrant workers
with patents
(licenses)
9
10.1
12.9
13.0
13.1
18.0
20.5
24.9
32.0
35.8
80.9
83.3
17.7
89.9
87.1
87.0
86.9
82.0
79.5
75.1
68.0
64.2
19.1
16.7
82.3
0% 100%
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Ukraine
Moldova
Kyrgyzstan
Thailand
Philippines
Total
women men
11.6
13.7
20.9
37.3
39.4
34.5
40.7
45.6
48.0
56.5
61.7
59.0
62.6
59.1
42.9
46.3
51.2
48.1
44.6
44.5
39.6
35.3
29.4
23.7
19.9
19.8
14.3
14.2
11.2
9.7
7.6
3.8
3.0
0% 20%40%60%80%100%
Italy
Lithuania
Japan
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Ukraine
Moldova
Kazakhstan
Total
Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan
<17-29
30-49
50+
% of men and
women Age composition
Some examples of disaggregation of administrative
data on labour migration in Russia: gender and age
aspect (issued work permissions , 2014)
10
2.4
1.2
3.9
0.8
7.9
1.0
4.7
7.3
7.9
8.8
5.3
12.5
50.7
16.1
23.4
26.9
23.7
27.6
22.7
13.3
24.5
16.5
33.5
17.7
11.7
38.1
22.9
37.7
9.8
29.4
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Armenia
Kyrgyzstan
Moldova
Tajikistan
Ukraine
Uzbekistan Top managers
Skilled staff in agriculture ,
forestry, hunting etc.
Technicians (middle level of
qualification) in engineering
Workers in mining, repair,
construction and assembly
operations Skilled workers, drivers,
engine drivers, fitters of
equipment etc.Low-skilled workers in all
spheres of economy
Other
Данные Евростата:
обращения за
статусом беженца
в ЕС, тыс. В 2015
году достигло
рекордных
значения (ок. 1,3
млн), вдвое
превысив высокие
показатели начала
1990-х
114
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
6
201
6
201
6
201
6
201
6
201
6
201
6
201
6
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
Applications for temporary
asylum by quarters 2014-
2016 гг. , thousand
331
254
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
4
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
5
201
6
201
6
201
6
201
6
201
6
201
6
201
6
201
6
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
Stock of
temporary
asylum holders
12
Population register
PIN PIN used for
registration
of new
place of residence
PIN used to
produce
statistics on migration
Azerbaijan + + + _
Armenia + + + _
Belarus + + + _
Kazakhstan + + + _
Kyrgyz Rep. - + - _
Moldova + + + _
Russia _ _ _ _
Tajikistan _ _ _ _
Turkmenistan _ _ _ _
Uzbekistan _ _ _ _
Ukraine _ _ _ _
UNECE 2016
In Russia –a certain “competition”
between agencies
responsible for
population registration , each
uses its own PIN,
or does not use any
(Tax service, Pension fund, Migration
service)
Migrants’ health – system of overall health examination and insurance of foreigners (naturalized migrants might be missing)
Migrants’ incomes - Tax service
Employment and unemployment - LFS and administrative data
Financial behaviour - bank reports
Complementary info on the topic on brain drain and migration of health workers - Federal Register of Health Workers (variable – country of training)
In the future - every
automated system
of population
registration - both
governmental or
corporative can
and should include
variable “country of
birth” and
“citizenship”
All records include information
on place of birth , citizenship
and place of permanent
residence (registration) of a
person –
Births - info on each parent of
a child,
Marriages – info on each
spouse
Regional offices of Rosstat
receive information from
regional Civil registries in e-
form, however not all
variables are requested
Basic problems - low quality
of primary information,
mistakes, noon-utilization of
standardized l list of territories
etc.
Children born at
foreign parents in
selected regions ,
2011, %
It was the first experience of
estimation of percentage of
children born at foreigner
parents and % of foreigners
among newly married couples
2
1.4
1.3
1.4
6.3
3.7
9.2
6.8
2.2
0.6
4.6
1.1
1
0.8
0.9
3.7
1.7
5.9
4.5
1.6
0.4
2.9
0 2 4 6 8 10
Krasnodar region
Primirsky krai
Stavropol oblast
Irkutsk oblast
St. Petersburg
Leningrad oblast
Moscow
Moscow oblast
Sverdlovsk oblast
Tatarstan
Total
Mother is a
foreigner
At least one
parent is a
foreigner
An experience of analysis of civil registry data to estimate migrants’
contribution to vital events in selected regions of Russia
(Author - Svetlana Biryukova, MSU-HSE)
Interstate statistical Committee of the CIS – collects information on
permanent-type migration flows (no disaggregation) and labour
migration.
Attempts to harmonize definitions (not very successful so far due to
objective reasons)
+ ILO
and
World
Bank
In the CIS area and Russia in particular:
Role of administrative sources is considerable in receiving countries and will be even more important in the future. However, (at least – at the moment) they can not be the only source of migration data relevant to the SDG agenda . In the future it is necessary to enlarge the list of variables and establish links between different administrative data bases in each country
Household surveys are to be developed and regularly conducted both in receiving and sending countries , possibility of harmonization of programmes and regularity could be discussed
National statistical offices have carte blanche in developing both their own sources and stimulating administrative agencies to cooperate and develop their statistical resources
International organizations can contribute to capacity building via consultancies, methodological (and possibly financial ) assistance
Thank you for your attention!
19
1.1
0.9 0.8
0.7
1.0
1.2
1.0 1.2
1.0
0.8
1.2
3.3
1.6
0.5
1.0
1.4
2.2
1.3
3.0
1.3
0.6
2.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2010/2002 2002/1989 2010/1989
0.6
1.2
2.2
6.6
12.5
15.6
17.1
19.9
23.9
31.1
37.4
36.3
35.3
21.1
59.0
0.6
1.2
2.1
6.0
11.7
14.8
16.1
18.4
24.5
34.4
43.2
45.5
51.3
34.9
116.7
100 50 0 50 100 150
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70+
females
Belarus
males
Belarus
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.2
2.1
2.7
2.8
2.3
1.8
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.8
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
1.0
4 2 0 2
0 - 4
5 – 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70+Belarus
females
Belarus
males
Родившиеся в РБ Граждане РБ
5.1
1.7
2.9
1.9
8.2
9.1
9.1
9
2.8
6.4
2.7
0.9
1.4
1.1
4.9
5.7
4.2
4.5
1.6
3.4
2.4
0.8
1.5
0.8
3.3
3.4
4.9
4.5
1.2
3
0 2 4 6 8 10
Krasnodar region
Primorsky krai
Stavropolsky krai
Irkutsk oblast
St. Petersburg
Leningrad oblast
Moscow
Moscow oblast
Sverdlovsk oblast
Total
Both are
foreigners
Wife is a
foreigner