older, but none the wiser

A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit.

The implications of an ageing workforce in the UK

Sponsored by

OLDER, bUTNONE THE WIsER?

1 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2014

Older, but none the wiser?

Contents

Executive summary 2

Calm before the storm 3

Employee demands are changing 5

Healthy workers, healthy profits 7

Tackling the pensions problem 8

Case study: IHG 10

Conclusion 11

Appendix: Survey results 12



Executive summary

An ageing workforce will create big talent management challenges for UK employers. They should be changing their reward and resourcing practices now.

Historically low birth rates and increasing life expectancy mean that Europes working population is ageing fast. In 2012 the continent reached an inevitable demographic tipping point. The percentage of the population of working age fell for the rst time in 40 years. It is now forecast to fall every year until 2060. This inescapable trend will have profound implications for governments, citizens and companies across Europe.

The demographic make-up of the UK means that the country has more time to adjustuntil the early 2020sthan the continents other large economies, according to European Commission forecasts. But are UK companies using that time to their advantage?

To explore some of the issues that senior executives will have to address as they seek to adapt their organisations to this new world, The Economist Intelligence Unit, on behalf of Towers Watson, surveyed 480 senior executives at companies across Europe, with 84 in the UK. Just over three-quarters (76%) of those in the UK expect the number of their employees aged 60+ to increase by 2020, including 29% who expect it to increase signi cantly.

Key ndings include:

Companies have a chance to prepare now, but most are not taking it. Workforce ageing will hurt the UK later the continents other main economies. But this opportunity is being squandered. When it comes to the kind of workplace changes that experts say are essential, UK companies are at the bottom of the European league table. Less than one- fth (18%) plan to let older workers cut their hours without feeling less valued.

Workforce ageing must move up the business agenda. UK executives are currently the least concerned in Europe about the challenge of managing an ageing workforce. Just one in 17 sees ageing as an issue. By 2020 that gure will leap fourfoldthe biggest increase in Europe.

The bene ts on offer need to change. As the workforce ages, employees will value a different mix of bene ts. UK companies are the most likely in Europe (48%) to feel that the bene t programmes they have in place today would not be t-for-purpose in 2020. Some 60% plan to offer more choiceby far the highest proportion in Europe.

Insuf cient savings are to blame for the UK pension crisis. Demographic change and government de cits are seen as the biggest challenges to their countrys pension system. But the UK (45%) executives overwhelmingly say the problem is that individuals are not saving enough. That is more than three times higher than in the next country, the Netherlands.



The economic and business implications of Europes ageing workforce are huge. But the UK should have more time to adjust than any of the EUs other large economies. Germany, one of the most exposed countries, could experience serious labour supply constraints within the next two or three years under the European Commissions most pessimistic scenario. The UK has a younger population; the Commission does not expect demographics to start hurting its economy until the early 2020s. But when the pain does arrive, the Commission says the UK should have had much more time to adjust, because it will have had more scope to bring people into the workforce and to improve productivity.

Perhaps it is no surprise, then, that the survey found that UK executives are currently the least concerned in Europe about the challenge of managing an ageing workforce. Just one in 17 UK executives sees ageing as an issue today; that level is over ve times higher in France. But this period of executive calm is not likely to last.

UK companies will shift their priorities over the next few years. They currently have a laser-like focus on cost control68% say it is one of their two most important business concerns, the highest percentage in Europe. As economic prospects brighten, the focus on managing costs will diminish. By 2020 only 20% think it

Calm before the storm1

What would you say is the most important business priority for your organisation currently?(% of respondents)

Chart 1

UK in 2020Europe in 2020UK nowEurope Now

Risk control andmanagement

Talent management(HR)

InnovationExpansionCost controlRestructuring

27 26

84

57

68

2320

32

25

42 44

29

24

49

55

24 25

4245

1418

14

20

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit.



will rank as highly. In its place, UK executives say their main business priorities in 2020 will be innovation (55%) and talent management (45%).

With the focus moving away from what people cost to what value they can bring, workforce ageing will become more of a concern. The survey shows that it will climb up the executive agenda across Europe, but nowhere is the expected leap as high as in the UK, where four times as many executives think it will be a top-three issue in 2020the biggest increase in Europe.

UK executives have time to prepare that their peers in other countries would envy, but most are making little use of it. The key to engaging and retaining older workers is to adjust work to their needs, says Maria Karanika-Murray, a work psychologist in Nottingham Trent Universitys School of Social Sciences. Some companies are

already doing this, but many are unsure of their options.

In important areas, UK companies are lagging far behind. Only 28% of survey respondents say they are planning to ensure that the skills of older employees remain up to date. Just 18% expect to adapt their structures so that older workers who cut their working hours or responsibilities can retain their status in the business and feel valued. On both points, the UK comes bottom in Europeby a wide margin.

More needs to be done, believes Baroness Sally Greengross, chief executive of the International Longevity Centre, a UK think-tank on longevity and demographic change. There is signi cant denial around the implications and consequences of our rapidly ageing population, she said in a recent debate. If we dont change our employment practice, industry will face a skills gap: this is inevitable.

What, if anything, does your business plan to do by 2020 in order to adapt to the changingneeds of your workforce?(% of respondents)

Chart 2

GermanyUKEurope


Other, please specify

Looking at how to address inter-generational differences in our

workforce

Giving employees more choiceover their benefits

Adapting our structure to ensure that older workerswho reduce work hours or responsibilities retain their

status within the company and continue to feel valued

Ensuring that the skills of olderemployees remain up to date

Offering more flexible working hoursor working from home

Changing the employeebenefits we offer

Making physical changesto the workplace

2824

45

50

55

5646

46

4828

32

3918

4860

222

2927

25

45

60

77



As employers adjust their human resources plans to t a brightening economy, employee expectations will also change. For now, job security is still seen by executives as the number one employee concern by a wide margin. And UK employees are thought to worry more about this than those in any other European country, apart from Spain and Italy. But UK executives expect this to roughly halve by 2020.

Instead, employees will look much more closely at the quality of their working lives. Today, 55% of UK executives report that work-life balance is a top-three concern for their employeesthat is by far the highest gure in Europe. By 2020 executives in every country, apart from France,

believe it will become the main employee concern.

Re ecting the shift from money to lifestyle bene ts, one-third of European executives expect their employees to want more job sharing, part-time working, portfolio careers and the opportunity for phased retirement. The common denominator here is that employees want greater exibility.

But how companies plan to deliver that exibility varies by country. For Europe as a whole, the most common response is to offer more exible working hours or working from home (56%). UK companies see this as a way forward too. But they are far more likely to see better bene t

Employee demands are changing2

What do you believe to be the issues your employees see as most important today?(% of respondents)

Chart 3

UK in 2020Europe in 2020UK nowEurope Now

41

52

32

42

6462

2931

20

14

3135

232219 18

15

6

17

11

42

55

4548

1411

25

1720

17

33 32

24 24 2528

3 48 7


Caring fordependents

(children andelderly)

Skilldevelopment

Employmentflexibility

(job sharing,portfolio careers,

part-time working,phased retirement)

Newtechnology

/pace ofchange

Work-lifebalance

Healthcareprovision

Stress andwellbeing

Saving forretirement

Jobsecurity

Financialsecurity



programmes as the answer to their talent management challenges. And here they see signi cant need for change.

According to the survey, UK companies are the most likely in Europe (48%, compared with an overall European average of 39%) to feel that the bene t programmes they have in place today would not be t-for-purpose in 2020. Some 60% plan to change the employee bene ts they offer and to give employees more choice over their bene tsby far the highest proportion in Europe. But UK executives are also the most likely to believe that the cost of bene ts as a percentage of salary will increase (62%).

Here they will face a conundrum: how can they offer employees the choice and exibility of

How likely is it that the benefit programmes you have in place now will remain fit-for-purpose in 2020? (% of respondents)

Chart 4


Very unlikely Unlikely Neither/neutral Likely Very likely Dont know

Spain

Switzerland

Netherlands

Italy

France

Germany

UK

Europe 27272430

26182635

9

13

2725

31227

7418

21026

32

27

243611

29

295

273

1914

81630433

53621309

bene ts and work practices they are looking for without allowing costs to spiral upwards? The survey suggests UK companies may be better placed to deal with this challenge than others. Today, they are less likely to believe their company has built up its bene ts offer without an overarching strategy (24%, compared with 37% for all Europeans). But like executives across Europe, only half of them (54%) believe they currently offer a comprehensive bene ts package that helps them to attract and retain staff.



As executives rethink their bene ts offer, healthcare will become increasingly signi cant. Even if state health provision were not under pressure from demographic change, the health and welfare of employees would logically become a growing human resources concern, since workforce ageing will require companies to rely more on older workers anyway.

Over two-thirds (70%) of European executives feel this is the caseslightly more than the 64% in the UK, with its National Health Service (NHS). Yet as state health funding comes under pressure in the UK and companies look to offer a richer mix

Healthy workers, healthy pro ts3of bene ts, it is no wonder that UK executives are the most likely in Europe (79%) to believe health bene ts will become increasingly important to employees.

But does that rethink necessarily mean an increase in cost? If older people maintain a healthy lifestyle, there is no reason why they cant choose to continue to work well beyond the pensionable age and contribute in some way, at no extra burden to the employer, says Ken Jones, chief executive of the UK-headquartered European business of Astellas, a Japanese pharmaceutical company.



Many companies see phased retirement as an important way of adapting to an ageing workforce. UK executives considering this option are likely to be pushing at an open door. The countrys citizens are almost twice as likely as the average European to want to keep working after their pension age56% of them are keen on the idea, according to the European Commission. On this measure, only the Danes rank more highly among the EUs 28 member states. And those in the UK are also much more interested in the option of taking a partial pension while working

Tackling the pensions problem4

What challenges are employers facing in making changes to their retirement benefits? Select up to three(% of respondents)

Chart 5

UKEurope


Staf

f hav

ent

requ

este

d an

ych

ange

s so

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ploy

ers

dono

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d to

mak

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Low

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gst

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r fin

anci

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oduc

ts

Staf

f do

not h

ave

tim

e or

reso

urce

s to

man

age

reti

rem

ent p

lans

Lack

of b

otto

m li

ne b

enef

itm

akes

cha

nge

hard

to ju

stify

Low

leve

ls o

f app

reci

atio

nfo

r ret

irem

ent b

enef

its

amon

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ploy

ees

Low

leve

ls o

f fin

anci

allit

erac

y/un

ders

tand

ing

amon

gst e

mpl

oyer

s

Lack

of t

ax in

cent

ives

Lack

of t

ools

to m

easu

reRO

I to

just

ify th

e co

sts

Man

agin

g th

e ri

sk p

osed

to th

e bu

sine

ss(d

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)

Exce

ssiv

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tion

Cost

of i

mpl

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ting

chan

ges

Grow

ing

cost

s(d

efin

ed b

enef

it p

lans

)

43

47

4042

33

38

24

33

19

6

19

14

18 17 18

29

17

1214

12 12 12

2 1

part-time82% like the idea, compared with two-thirds of all Europeans.

Rethinking retirement in this way might also require a rethink of pensions. And this is where the drive for greater exibility could hit the buffers. While executives surveyed in the UK are particularly keen to offer employees a more adaptable mix of bene ts, 42% say pension arrangements are expensive to change, and 38% say they are excessively regulated.



Pension funding is also a thorny issue. Like their counterparts in Europe, many UK executives (41%) believe employers should help their employees to have a comfortable standard of living in retirement, with 44%a notch above the European averagesaying employers should be primarily responsible for providing retirement provision.

But unlike their European peers, UK executives believe individual employees share the same burden of responsibility. What is more, they are far less likely to believe that the employer should bear the risk of retirement provision. Over

half (53%) of UK executives disagree with that suggestionmore than double the proportion in Germany and Italy.

For UK executives, the greatest threat to pension provision in their country is the fact thatin their viewemployees are not meeting their side of the deal. Whereas executives across other countries say the biggest systemic pension challenges are demographic change and government de cits, those in the UK (45%) overwhelmingly point to insuf cient savings by individuals. That is more than three times higher than in the next country, the Netherlands.

What is the biggest challenge facing the system for retirement savings in the country in which you are based?(% of respondents)

Chart 6

UKEurope


Not r

elev

ant f

or m

yco

untr

y, o

ur re

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is s

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le

Regu

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Empl

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bene

fits

Unr

ealis

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expe

ctat

ions

of in

divi

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Too

man

y pe

ople

not

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king

to o

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Unr

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(Sta

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on,

pens

ion

age)

Hig

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for b

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spr

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ions

Insu

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sav

ings

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divi

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Dem

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phic

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(age

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popu

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26

20

14

45

18

58 7

10

64 2

72

6

11

4 1 3 0



Workforce ageing could also affect the way IHG deploys older staff, adds Mr Voller. We would typically have people moving up the career ladder; if they are staying in senior roles for longer, wed want to make sure we are creating career opportunities for them. What role should they have at the end of their working life? How do we get them sharing their knowledge and experience?

But Mr Voller believes it is important to look at workforce ageing as just one part of a wider talent management issue. IHG already tries to offer its employees a wide range of bene ts, for example, and tries to take account of what might appeal to them at the different stages of their lifeyoung or old. For me its about making sure weve got the right people in the right jobs at the right time. We dont put a huge focus on ageing per se; the key thing for us is to nd talent.

Compared with their European counterparts, UK companies have been slow to think about the potential impact of workforce ageing. But the issue is on the agenda at InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG), the UKs second-largest hotel operator.

Tony Voller, senior vice president of human resources Europe and global employer brand and resourcing, says the business will need to nd new ways to engage its 9,000-strong UK workforce in the years ahead.

We will have to think more exibly about the way we employ people and the bene ts we offer, says Mr Voller. Its great to assume people will want to work longer, although perhaps not at the same pace as they do currently. We will need to think about how we change contracts and so on, so people can get the work-life balance they want.

Case study: IHG



UK companies cannot escape the impact of demographic change, but they could do a lot more to prepare. The need to address workforce ageing is not yet as urgent as it is in other European countries, but surely that is an opportunity for executives to plan now and deal with the challenge effectively, rather than rush it and make a mess.

This is particularly true in the realm of bene ts. The survey shows that UK executives see a more

Conclusion

exible and employee-focused bene ts package as an important way of retaining and motivating workers, who will be in increasingly short supply. Yet those same executives are the most likely in Europe to believe their bene ts programme needs a major overhaul. Now would be the time to start that process.



Appendix: UK survey results

Cost control

Restructuring

Expansion

Talent management (HR)

Innovation

Risk control and management

68

26

25

25

24

18

(% respondents)What would you say is the most important business priority for your organisation currently? Select up to two

Innovation

Talent management (HR)

Expansion

Cost control

Risk control and management

Restructuring

55

45

44

20

20

4

(% respondents)What would you say will be the most important business priority for your organisation by 2020? Select up to two



Global competition

Technology

Talent/people management

Ageing

Changing size and role of the state

Offshoring/outsourcing

Other (please specify)

66

54

39

9

9

6

5

(% respondents)By 2020, what will be the main drivers of change for your business? Select up to two

Talent management and progression

Motivation and engagement

Cost control (compensation and benefits)

Recruitment

Retention

Downsizing / offshoring

Skills shortages

Diversity of workforce

Healthy workforce (health, stress and wellbeing)

Regulation (state/EU)

Ageing workforce


49

47

41

31

28

19

14

12

9

9

6

0

(% respondents)What are the main people (HR) issues you face as an employer currently? Select up to three



Talent management and progression

Motivation and engagement

Retention

Cost control (compensation and benefits)

Recruitment

Skills shortages

Ageing workforce

Healthy workforce (health, stress and wellbeing)

Diversity of workforce

Regulation (state/EU)

Downsizing/offshoring


54

34

31

27

25

24

22

12

12

8

8

1

(% respondents)What will be the main people (HR) issues you face as an employer by 2020? Select up to three

Job security

Work-life balance

Financial security

Skill development

Stress and wellbeing

Employment flexibility (job sharing, portfolio careers, part-time working, phased retirement)

Saving for retirement

New technology/pace of change

Healthcare provision

Caring for dependents (children and elderly)


62

55

52

24

22

17

14

11

6

4

1

(% respondents)What do you believe to be the issues your employees see as most important today? Select up to three



Work-life balance

Financial security

Saving for retirement

Employment flexibility (job sharing, portfolio careers, part-time working, phased retirement)

Job security

Skill development

Stress and wellbeing

New technology/pace of change


Caring for dependents (children and elderly)


48

42

35

32

31

28

18

17

11

7

0

(% respondents)What do you believe to be the issues your employees see as most important by 2020? Select up to three

Changing the employee benefits we offer

Giving employees more choice over their benefits

Offering more flexible working hours or working from home

Ensuring that the skills of older employees remain up to date

Looking at how to address inter-generational differences in our workforce

Making physical changes to the workplace


60

60

46

28

27

24

18

2

(% respondents)

What, if anything, does your business plan to do by 2020 in order to adapt to the changing needs of your workforce?Select all that apply

Adapting our structure to ensure that older workers who reduce work hours or responsibilities retain their status within the company and continueto feel valued

Very unlikely

Unlikely

Neither/neutral

Likely

Very likely

Dont know

13

35

26

18

6

2

(% respondents)How likely is it that the benefit programmes you have in place now will remain fit-for-purpose in 2020?



Increase significantly

Increase

Stay the same

Decrease

Decrease significantly

14

48

26

10

2

(% respondents)By 2020, for the typical employee at your company, do you believe that the costs of benefits as a percentage of salary will:

We think its right to look after our staff, and our benefits reflect that

We offer a fully comprehensive benefits package to attract and retain employees

We make sure were offering whats normal for our industry, to keep up with competitors

Its often better for employees to get certain benefits through work than buy them themselves

In the future, we are more likely to give employees a cash allowance and let them choose what benefits they like

We have a carefully selected set of benefits suitable for our employees lifestyles

Weve built up benefits over time, without an overarching strategy for choosing them

It is difficult to reduce elements of our current benefits package so any change results in an increase in overall costs

Due to historic reasons/changes we have lost track of why we have the benefits we have

We only offer the minimum benefits that are legally required, and otherwise just pay cash


57

54

54

42

26

25

24

20

11

11

0

(% respondents)Which of the following statements describes your companys attitude to benefits offered to employees? Select all that apply

Individual Employer State

Retirement provision

Savings scheme


Life insurance

Disability protection

Critical illness protection

End of life care

12

7

43

5

25

22

56

44

1677

4611

58

44

37

4827

2949

1133

(% respondents)Who should be primarily responsible for providing and/or funding the following benefits?



1 Strongly agree 2 Somewhat agree 3 Neither agree nor disagree 4 Somewhat disagree 5 Strongly disagree

The health and wellbeing of our workforce will be an increasingly important issue for us as an employer

The state will play a reduced role in providing healthcare

Healthcare costs will increasingly fall on employers

Healthcare benefits will be increasingly important to employees

1

619

424

1

232

2046

2444

8

5

3530

2185425

(% respondents)

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements about health and wellbeing of your workforce in the future (to 2020)?Rate on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is strongly agree and 5 is strongly disagree

Wanting employees to have an adequate income in retirement

Attracting talent

Employee retention

Compliance

Workforce planning (managing when employees retire)


32

24

24

13

6

1

(% respondents)What is your companys main objective in offering retirement benefits now?

Wanting employees to have an adequate income in retirement

Attracting talent

Employee retention

Workforce planning (managing when employees retire)

Compliance


31

24

20

13

10

2

(% respondents)What will be your companys main objective in offering retirement benefits by 2020?



Growing costs (defined benefit plans)

Cost of implementing changes

Excessive regulation

Managing the risk posed to the business (defined benefit plans)

Low levels of appreciation for retirement benefits among employees

Low levels of financial literacy/understanding amongst employers

Lack of tax incentives

Lack of bottom line benefit makes change hard to justify

Staff do not have time or resources to manage retirement plans

Low levels of trust amongst employees for financial products

Lack of tools to measure ROI to justify the costs


Staff havent requested any changes so employers do not need to make any

47

42

38

33

29

17

14

12

12

12

6

0

1

(% respondents)What challenges are employers facing in making changes to their retirement benefits? Select up to three

Insufficient savings being made by individuals

Demographic changes (ageing population)

Unrealistic expectations of individuals

Unrealistic government entitlements (State pension, pension age)

High costs for businesses providing pensions.

Government deficits/debt (impact of austerity measures)

Employers underestimating the future cost of promised benefits

Too many people not working to or past the state retirement age

Regulatory and legislative changes

Not relevant for my country, our retirement system is sustainable


45

20

11

7

6

5

2

2

1

0

0

(% respondents)What is the biggest challenge facing the system for retirement savings in the country in which you are based?



It is not an employers role to help their employees to have a comfortable standard of living in retirement

Employers should bear the risk of providing for their retirement

As an employer, we are concerned about the reputational risk of workers reaching old age and not being able to retire

13

23

4

27262013

3025192

12245011

(% respondents)1 Strongly agree 2 Somewhat agree 3 Neither agree nor disagree 4 Somewhat disagree 5 Strongly disagree

Do you agree or disagree regarding the following statements about retirement provision in the future?Rate on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is strongly agree and 5 is strongly disagree

Increase significantly

Increase

Remain the same

Decrease

Decrease significantly

29

47

18

5

1

(% respondents)How do you expect the number of employees aged 60+ to change by 2020?

Older workers are less productive than younger workers are

Older workers have greater skills than younger workers do

Older workers are less motivated than younger workers are

Older workers are easier to manage than younger workers are

Older workers take more time off for health reasons than younger workers

14

5

16

6

6

3835112

1835385

3930132

2941214

2446204

(% respondents)

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements about older workers? Rate on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is strongly agreeand 5 is strongly disagree

1 Strongly agree 2 Somewhat agree 3 Neither agree nor disagree 4 Somewhat disagree 5 Strongly disagree

Higher costs of benefits

Greater employee demand for benefits (healthcare, retirement and other benefits)

Increased flexible working (to provide care for older dependents, phased retirement, etc)

Progression of younger workers becomes more difficult

Greater risk of age discrimination claims

47

39

39

38

22

(% respondents)Which of the following do you think is most likely to happen as a result of an ageing workforce? Select up to two



Board member

CEO/President/Managing director

CFO/Treasurer/Comptroller

CIO/Technology director

Other C-level executive

SVP/VP/Director

Head of business unit

Head of department

Manager


1

9

6

4

2

22

5

20

31

0

(% respondents)Which of the following best describes your title?

Human resources

Finance

General management

Operations and production

Marketing and sales

Risk

Strategy and business development

IT

Information and research

Procurement

R&D

Customer service

Legal

Supply-chain management

Other

44

15

14

8

5

5

4

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

(% respondents)What is your primary job function?

Less than 250

250-499

500-1,999

2,000+

0

0

4

97

(% respondents)How many employees does your company have globally?



Aerospace and Defence

Automotive and Transportation Equipment

Charities and Non-Profit

Chemicals

Communications

Consumer goods

Education

Entertainment and media

Financial Services: Banking

Financial Services: Insurance

Financial Services: Other financial services

Food and Beverage

Government/Public sector

Health Care

Hospitality (Restaurant, Hotel/Lodging, Tourism and Leisure)

IT and High Tech

Manufacturing

Natural Resources

Oil & gas

Pharmaceuticals

Professional and Business Services

Property and Construction

Publishing and printing

Retail

Telecommunications

Transportation

Utilities

Wholesale


4

2

0

1

0

4

0

1

14

5

1

2

0

1

6

8

12

0

7

4

13

0

0

4

8

4

0

0

0

(% respondents)What is your industry?



Publicly listed

Other privately owned (partnership, limited liability, etc)

Private Equity portfolio company

Family owned

Government/State owned enterprise

71

18

5

4

4

(% respondents)Please state which of the following best describes your company?

Less than 500m

500m to 1bn

1bn to 5bn

5bn to 10bn

More than 10bn

0

14

22

17

47

(% respondents)What are your organisation's global annual revenues?

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