older adults living alone in the birmingham area with projections to 2020 jill collins & carol...

OLDER ADULTS LIVING ALONE IN THE BIRMINGHAM AREA WITH PROJECTIONS TO

2020

Jill Collins & Carol HollandAston Research Centre for Healthy Ageing

Aston UniversityBirmingham B4 7ET

http://www1.aston.ac.uk/archa/

To cite this work, please use the following reference information: Collins, J. & Holland, C. (2013) Older adults living alone in the Birmingham area with projections to 2020. Report prepared for Birmingham Ageing Better, available from http://www1.aston.ac.uk/archa/






Source : 2011 JSNA data

Living Alone – Birmingham

This shows the percentage of over 65’s living alone in Birmingham in 2011 (JSNA).

Labels were added to wards having high concentrations of pensioners living alone.

Note: data was available at middle level super output area (MSOA’s are areas having population 5,000-15,000)

Red areas show where over 39.2% of pensioners live alone.

Copyright J. Collins & C. Holland, Aston University

Living Alone – Birmingham, West Midlands and England Projections (2014-2020)People aged 65 and over living alone, projected to 2020

The number of people aged 65 and over living alone in Birmingham is predicted to increase by around 3,000 (7.5%) by 2020. However, the proportion of those aged 65 and over living alone stays constant over the years and looks consistent with both West Midlands and National values (i.e. around 37% of all aged 65 and over will continue live alone in future years).

(Source: POPPI, Projecting Older People Population Information www.poppi.org.uk) Figures are taken from the General Household Survey, ONS. The General Household Survey is a continuous survey which has been running since 1971, and is based each year on a sample of the general population resident in private households in Great Britain.

People aged 65 and over living alone, projected to 20202014 2016 2018 2020

Birmingham 53,691 54,297 55,458 56,751West Midlands 376,287 389,365 404,145 420,682England 3,482,542 3,607,069 3,743,814 3,900,285

Population aged 65 and over, projected to 20202014 2016 2018 2020

Birmingham 143,800 146,300 149,400 152,600West Midlands 1,032,500 1,070,000 1,104,900 1,139,100England 9,536,400 9,911,700 10,256,600 10,603,000

% 65 and over living alone2014 2016 2018 2020

Birmingham 37.3% 37.1% 37.1% 37.2%West Midlands 36.4% 36.4% 36.6% 36.9%England 36.5% 36.4% 36.5% 36.8%


Living Alone – Birmingham Projections to 2020 by Age and Gender (2014-2020)People aged 65 and over living alone, by age and gender, projected to 2020Numbers living alone predicted to rise steadily each year (and 5.4% by 2020 for those aged 65-75, 5.8% by 2020 for those aged 75+). As expected the largest group living alone in Birmingham are females, aged 75+.

(Source: POPPI, Projecting Older People Population Information www.poppi.org.uk) Figures are taken from the General Household Survey, ONS. The General Household Survey is a continuous survey which has been running since 1971, and is based each year on a sample of the general population resident in private households in Great Britain.

Birmingham: Males aged 65-74 predicted to live

alone

Birmingham: Males aged 75 and over pre-dicted to live

alone

Birmingham: Fe-males aged 65-74 predicted to live

alone

Birmingham: Fe-males aged 75 and over predicted to

live alone

Birmingham: Total population aged 65-74 predicted

to live alone

Birmingham: Total population aged 75 and over pre-

dicted to live alone

2014 7000 9826 11550 25315 18550 35141

2016 7200 9962 11820 25315 19020 35277

2018 7380 10336 12000 25742 19380 36078

2020 7500 10778 12060 26413 19560 37191

2,500

7,500

12,500

17,500

22,500

27,500

32,500

37,500 2014

2016

2018

2020

Coun

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OLDER ADULTS QUALITY OF LIFE INDICATORS

Source : 2011 Census Data – Table LC3205EW - Long-term health problems

Activity limiting long-term health problems for OP by SOA/wardThis shows the proportion of over 65’s having their activities limited either a little OR a lot by long-term health problems.

*Lower level Super Output Area (LSOA) is a geographical area designed for the collection and publication of small area statistics. More info at http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/geography/beginner-s-guide/census/super-output-areas--soas-/index.html

Wards with highest proportions severely limited people by Lower Level Super Output area (LSOA) are labelled.

Across Birmingham, on average 60.6% of 65+ have their activities limited a little/lot by long term health problems.


http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/geography/beginner-s-guide/census/super-output-areas--soas-/index.html


LLTI– Birmingham, West Midlands and England Projections (2014-2020)People aged 65 and over having limiting long-term illness, projected to 2020

The number of people aged 65 and over having a LLTI in Birmingham is predicted to increase by almost 5,000 (6.4%) by 2020. Also, note the proportion of those aged 65+ in Birmingham with LLTI is higher than both the West Midlands and National value at 52.8%.

(Source: POPPI, Projecting Older People Population Information www.poppi.org.uk) Base figures are taken from Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2001 Census, Standard Tables

People aged 65 and over having a LLTI, projected to 20202014 2016 2018 2020

Birmingham 75,919 77,189 78,887 80,769 West Midlands 508,651 527,447 546,483 566,351 England 4,460,005 4,634,404 4,807,345 4,991,958

Population aged 65 and over, projected to 20202014 2016 2018 2020

Birmingham 143,800 146,300 149,400 152,600West Midlands 1,032,500 1,070,000 1,104,900 1,139,100England 9,536,400 9,911,700 10,256,600 10,603,000

% 65 and over with LLTI2014 2016 2018 2020

Birmingham 52.8% 52.8% 52.8% 52.9%West Midlands 49.3% 49.3% 49.5% 49.7%England 46.8% 46.8% 46.9% 47.1%


NI 138 - Satisfaction of people over 65 with both home and neighbourhood (2008/09)

Source: Place Survey http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/localgovernment/placesurveymanual0809

Measure satisfaction of how older people live their lives at the local level. Older people were asked 2 questions: How satisfied are you with your home? How satisfied are you with this area as a place to live? The indicator is the percentage of people aged 65 and over who respond that they are fairly satisfied or very satisfied with both their home and the area. NB ‘Area’ is not defined; it is a subjective assessment, which will vary legitimately depending on what area respondents regard as relevant.

Birmingham West Midlands England75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

78.2

83.383.9

NI 138 - Satisfaction of people 65 and over with both home and neighbourhood (2008/09)

NI 138 - Satisfaction of people over 65 with both home and neighbourhood (2008/09)


Crimes against Older People (2010/11)

Source:2010-2011 Group and Area Crimes against the older person Prosecutionshttp://data.gov.uk/dataset/cps-hate-crime-and-crimes-against-older-people-report-2010-2011-underlying-data/resource/c4d27761-0250-464f-8cba-99906e8c639a

2010-2011 Crimes against the older person are shown for police areas in England and Wales (note: West Midlands has 2nd highest number after London).

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Total Prosecutions for Crimes Against Older People (2010/11)

For the West Midlands the successful/unsuccessful convictions rates for these prosecutions was 82.65%/17.35%. This was slightly better than the average value for all England/Wales (80.05%/19.05%).


INDEX OF DEPRIVATION AFFECTING OLDER PEOPLE (IDAOP)

Income Deprivation Affection Older People (IDAOP 2010)Income Deprivation Affecting Older People is a sub-domain of the income deprivation domain that covers adults aged 60 or over living in income deprived households (i.e. the proportion of households where someone in the family is claiming Income Support or income based Jobseeker’s Allowance or Pension Credit [Guaranteed element]).

Source : Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (www.data.gov.uk)

The map (right) shows the proportion of 60+ households in income deprivation at LA level in England in 2010.

Birmingham, along with its nearest Geographical neighbours Walsall, Sandwell, Dudley and Wolverhampton exhibit some of the highest rates of IDAOP in England, with around 33% of over 60’s living in income deprivation (on average across the LA).


http://www.data.gov.uk/

Income Deprivation Affection Older People (IDAOP 2010) – Birmingham Drill Down

Source : Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (www.data.gov.uk)*Lower level Super Output Area (LSOA) is a geographical area designed for the collection and publication of small area statistics. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/geography/beginner-s-guide/census/super-output-areas--soas-/ index.html

Isolating Birmingham in the map and drilling-down to LSOA level(*), we see that the majority of highly deprived areas are the smaller more densely populated urban SOA’s.

Note: some of the most deprived SOA’s have up to 96.1% of over 60’s living in income deprivation.

This map is repeated on the following slide with 2011 census ward boundaries shown.





Income Deprivation Affection Older People (IDAOP 2010) – Deprived Birmingham Wards


The most deprived wards for older people are highlighted and labelled in the map. The IDAOP score for each LSOA was average across wards, the 10 most deprived wards (2011 census wards) are shown in the table.

Ward Name Mean IDAOP

Lozells and East Handsworth 0.70294

Sparkbrook 0.68895

Washwood Heath 0.624

Soho 0.61

Bordesley Green 0.51474

Nechells 0.48211

South Yardley 0.41833

Aston 0.408

Kingstanding 0.40588

Springfield 0.40133



Income Deprivation Affection Older People (IDAOP 2010) – Deprived Birmingham LSOA’s


LSOA’s in Birmingham were selected having more than 75% of OP living in deprivation. See YELLOW areas in map. There were 44 LSOA’s in total.

More than 75%OP in deprivation



Proportion of People Aged 60+ (2011 Census) with IDAOP Overlay

Source : 2011 Census Data – Age Structure – Table KS102EW (www.nomisweb.co.uk/)Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (www.data.gov.uk)

The map below shows the % of the population in Birmingham aged 60+ by LSOA using dot density on a background thematic map of IDAOP (2010). Deprived areas with high 60+ population are labelled.


http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/


Number of People Aged 60+ (2011 Census) with IDAOP and LLTI Overlay

Here the deprivation thematic map has dot density added indicating %60+ living with LLTI. Also, LSOA’s bounded in purple indicate a high number of 60+ in the population (>300).

A few postcode sectors have been labelled which demonstrate

• High number of 60+• High prop living with LLTI• High deprivation scores


OLDER ADULTS POPULATION

Proportion of People Aged 60+ (2011 Census) – Birmingham LSOA’s

Source : 2011 Census Data – Age Structure – Table KS102EW (www.nomisweb.co.uk/)

The map below shows the % of the population in Birmingham aged 60+ by LSOA.

Notice, the areas which previously showed the highest levels of deprivation for OP actually have relatively low proportions of OP living there (shown by mostly grey <17%, exception is an LSOA in Handsworth Wood).

So could these less affluent OP also feel more isolated living in a younger community?

Large red areas are seen towards North Birmingham, i.e. Sutton Coldfield, where the population is generally older.

Numbers of People Aged 60+ and 85+ (2011 Census) – Birmingham LSOA’s

Source : 2011 Census Data – Age Structure – Table KS102EW (www.nomisweb.co.uk/)

The map below shows the numbers the population in Birmingham aged 60+ (left) and aged 85+ (right) by LSOA.

More than 500 people aged 60+

More than 50 people aged 85+

Sutton Coldfield wards have a high numbers of older people – particularly the oldest old. As expected there are not many 85+ living in central areas.


OLDER ADULTS ETHNICITY AND ENGLISH FLUENCY

Birmingham West Midlands England

EthnicityPeople

aged 65-74

People aged 75-84

People aged 85+

People aged 65-

74

People aged 75-

84People

aged 85+People

aged 65-74

People aged 75-

84People

aged 85+

White (this includes British, Irish and Other White) 82.33% 85.96% 93.21% 93.95% 95.12% 97.38% 94.66% 96.37% 98.17%

Mixed Ethnicity (this includes White and Black Caribbean; White and Black African; White and Asian; and Other Mixed)

0.41% 0.37% 0.22% 0.19% 0.14% 0.13% 0.31% 0.23% 0.17%

Asian or Asian British (this includes Indian; Pakistani; Bangladeshi; and Other Asian or Asian British)

10.37% 7.62% 4.04% 3.70% 2.82% 1.53% 2.83% 1.85% 0.87%

Black or Black British (this includes Black Caribbean; Black African; and Other Black or Black British)

6.13% 5.52% 2.23% 1.80% 1.65% 0.73% 1.61% 1.16% 0.50%

Chinese or Other Ethnic Group 0.77% 0.53% 0.30% 0.31% 0.19% 0.09% 0.54% 0.29% 0.13%

Ethnicity of Older People in Birmingham, West Midlands and England (2009)

Source: ONS Table PEEGC309: LAD 2009 Single Year of Age by Ethnic Group, mid-2009. This table is a commissioned table from the Population Estimates by Ethnic Group (Release 8.0), ONS. The wording used for ethnic groupings are as used by ONS.

Birmingham has a much higher proportion of non-white Older People than either the West Midlands or England. This is true across all age groups. In 2009, there were 20,232 non-white Older People living in Birmingham.


Source : 2011 Census Data – Table LC2105EW - Proficiency in English by age (www.nomisweb.co.uk/)

It is worth noting here that OP with little/no English may have been less likely to take part in the Census, so this data may not reflect true numbers.

Proficiency in English by AgeThe map below shows the number of people aged 65+ in each Birmingham LSOA that either… • cannot speak English • or cannot speak English well


JSNA HEALTH INDICATORS

People aged 65 and over unable to manage at least one mobility activity on their own, by age and gender (2014 values) Activities include: going out of doors and walking

As for the living alone data, the worst affected group in Birmingham are females aged 85+.

Mobility (JSNA)

Source: JSNA Figures are taken from Living in Britain Survey (2001), table 29.The prevalence rates have been applied to ONS population projections of the 65 and over population to give estimated numbers.

MOBILITYBirmingham West Midlands England

Males Females Males Females Males FemalesAge 65-69 : predicted to have depression 1,480 1,791 12,040 14,328 112,400 135,855Age 70-74 : predicted to have depression 1,470 2,688 11,490 20,272 102,550 182,192Age 75-79 : predicted to have depression 1,500 3,234 10,812 22,218 98,712 203,847Age 80-84 : predicted to have depression 1,566 3,480 10,890 23,635 102,114 220,168Age 85 and over : predicted to have depression 2,590 6,900 17,185 45,050 164,885 430,200Totals 8,606 18,093 62,417 125,503 580,661 1,172,262


People aged 65 and over predicted to have depression, by age and gender (2014 values)

Highest numbers are observed amongst younger groups, as expected more females than males are observed.

Depression (JSNA)

Source: JSNA Figures are taken from McDougall et al, Prevalence of depression in older people in England and Wales: the MRC CFA Study in Psychological Medicine, 2007, 37, 1787-1795.

DEPRESSIONBirmingham West Midlands England

Males Females Males Females Males FemalesAge 65-69 : predicted to have depression 1,073 2,169 8,729 17,353 81,490 164,536Age 70-74 : predicted to have depression 1,014 1,596 7,928 12,037 70,760 108,177Age 75-79 : predicted to have depression 738 1,648 5,316 11,321 48,533 103,865Age 80-84 : predicted to have depression 844 1,104 5,869 7,498 55,028 69,846Age 85 and over : predicted to have depression 377 1,532 2,504 10,001 24,026 95,504Totals 4,046 8,049 30,346 58,209 279,837 541,928


People registered blind in Birmingham, West Mids and England by age group are shown below. For Birmingham 76.1% of those registered blind are aged 65+ (West Mids, National rates were 73.1% and 73.9% respectively). With respect to partially sight, 77.9% were 65+ in Birmingham (75.8% and 75.4% for West Mids and England).

Sight (JSNA)

Source: JSNA Figures are from TABLE B1 : Number of Blind people registered with councils by age group, at March 2008

Total number of people registered

blind

Number of Blind people registered who are aged:

0 to 4 5 to 17 18 to 49 50 to 64 65 to 74 75 or over

Birmingham 4,690 20 115 585 400 405 3,165WEST MIDLANDS 15,975 50 470 2,085 1,660 1,540 10,145

ENGLAND 152,980 805 3,975 19,330 15,655 14,805 98,270

Total number of people registered Partially Sighted

Number of Partially Sighted people registered who are aged:

0 to 4 5 to 17 18 to 49 50 to 64 65 to 74 75 or over

Birmingham 3,965 10 95 450 320 365 2,720WEST MIDLANDS 16,215 30 505 1,955 1,425 1,710 10,580

ENGLAND 156,285 700 5,140 16,845 14,105 16,055 103,345

And TABLE PS1 : TABLE PS1 : Number of Partially sighted people registered with councils by age group, at March 2008 Copyright J. Collins & C. Holland, Aston University

Three Simple Indicators for Loneliness

Three Simple Indicators for Loneliness

All data available (at small geography )was aggregated up to ward level using Birmingham’s 40 2011 Census ward areas. Where required %’s were converted to proportions, to ensure all values were in the range [0-1].

Proportion of 65+ Living Alone

Proportion of 60+ Living in Income

Deprivation (IDAOPI)

Proportion 65+ with Day-to-day activities

limited a little OR a lot by long-term health

problems

Proportion 65+ with little/no English

+

+

+

Indicator 1: Simply SUMS’s the 4 indicators below

This indicator assumes that each component has equal weight and importance in terms of contributing to an OP’s loneliness. There were 11 wards in with indicator value>1.5 (see next). Copyright J. Collins & C.

Holland, Aston University

Indicator 1: 11 worst wards (Indicator value>1.5). Wards ranked from worst @ top

WardLoneliness

Indicator #1

Prop of 65+ Living Alone

IDAOP 2010

Prop 65+ with Day-

to-day activities limited a little OR a

lot

Prop 65+ with

little/no English

Sparkbrook 2.083161 0.29375 0.68895 0.71924 0.381221

Washwood Heath 2.04211 0.3145 0.624 0.71957 0.38404

Lozells and East Handsworth 2.018782 0.2855 0.70294 0.70336 0.326982Soho 1.84987 0.3075 0.61 0.6858 0.24657Aston 1.81675 0.448667 0.408 0.6964 0.263684

Bordesley Green 1.730543 0.234 0.51474 0.69442 0.287383Nechells 1.693061 0.357 0.48211 0.6632 0.190751

Springfield 1.532826 0.212 0.40133 0.6439 0.275596Shard End 1.50873 0.4175 0.40059 0.68674 0.0039

Kingstanding 1.50192 0.415 0.40588 0.67062 0.01042

Handsworth Wood 1.500744 0.288667 0.37056 0.64348 0.198037


Indicator 2: Simply SUMS’s the 4 indicators below and add effect of ‘young’ area

Indicator 2 tries to represent the added isolation that OP may feel if they live in an area with much fewer 60+ residents than average (<3,500, as opposed to B’Ham average 4,616)

Note: New areas of interest here – SELLY OAK and LADYWOOD. See table next slide.

Add 0.5 if the ward has a low number of OP resident (<3500)






problems


+

+

+

+



WardLoneliness

Indicator #2Prop of 65+ Living Alone

IDAOP 2010

Prop 65+ with Day-


lot

Prop 65+ with

little/no English

Washwood Heath 2.54211 0.3145 0.624 0.71957 0.38404

Lozells and East Handsworth 2.518782 0.2855 0.70294 0.70336 0.326982

Soho 2.34987 0.3075 0.61 0.6858 0.24657Aston 2.31675 0.448667 0.408 0.6964 0.263684Nechells 2.193061 0.357 0.48211 0.6632 0.190751

Sparkbrook 2.083161 0.29375 0.68895 0.71924 0.381221Ladywood 1.731026 0.495 0.12286 0.53006 0.083106

Bordesley Green 1.730543 0.234 0.51474 0.69442 0.287383Selly Oak 1.659776 0.3405 0.20846 0.5881 0.022716

Springfield 1.532826 0.212 0.40133 0.6439 0.275596

Shard End 1.50873 0.4175 0.40059 0.68674 0.0039

Kingstanding 1.50192 0.415 0.40588 0.67062 0.01042

Handsworth Wood 1.500744 0.288667 0.37056 0.64348 0.198037 Copyright J. Collins & C. Holland, Aston University

Indicator 3: Simply SUMS’s the 4 indicators below and add effect of ‘Oldest’ OP

Indicator 3 boosts the effect of the ‘oldest’ OP (i.e. those aged 85+). These residents are likely to be the most infirm and isolated.

This indicator produces a different set of ‘worst’ wards incl Tyburn and Erdington. See the table (next slide).

Add 0.5 if the ward has a high % of ‘Oldest’ OP resident (>15% over 85)






problems


+

+

+

+



WardLoneliness

Indicator #3

Prop of 65+ Living Alone

IDAOP 2010

Prop 65+ with Day-


lot

Prop 65+ with

little/no English

Sparkbrook 2.083161 0.29375 0.68895 0.71924 0.381221

Washwood Heath 2.04211 0.3145 0.624 0.71957 0.38404

Lozells and East Handsworth 2.018782 0.2855 0.70294 0.70336 0.326982Tyburn 1.881532 0.363333 0.348 0.65757 0.012629Soho 1.84987 0.3075 0.61 0.6858 0.24657

Aston 1.81675 0.448667 0.408 0.6964 0.263684Billesley 1.813457 0.3486 0.31118 0.63131 0.022367

Erdington 1.808186 0.4525 0.24583 0.60089 0.008966Brandwood 1.761191 0.367 0.28533 0.59382 0.015041

Kings Norton 1.744107 0.350333 0.29 0.60064 0.003134


older adults living alone in the birmingham area with projections to 2020 jill collins & carol...

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