Beingeveryday scientistsin communities

Dennis D. Embry, Ph.D., President/CEO, PAXIS Institute

CADCA, Washington, DC, February 11, 2008

www.paxis.org

1-520-299-6770

Copyright © 2009, PAXIS Institute. All rights reserved. Simple Gifts, ™ Evidence-Based Kernels™ and KERNELS™ are Trademarks of PAXIS Institute, licensed to Simple Gifts, Inc.

1Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Using powerful, practical and simple experimental ways to prove that prevention is happening in communities.

“If your result needs a statistician, then you should design a better experiment”

Ernest Rutherford quotes (Baron

Rutherford of Nelson. New Zealander born British Chemist who laid the groundwork for the development of nuclear physics by

investigating radioactivity. Nobel

Prize in 1908. 1871-1937)

2Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Let’s practice identifying types of measurable actions (behaviors)

Behavior =

Reliably measurable actions (frequency, duration and/or intensity) of a person in a specific environment.

3Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Behavior has

VoteA) Frequency

B) Duration

C) Intensity

D) All of the above

4Tuesday, December 7, 2010

An example of frequency at school is

VoteA) A student cursing on the

PA

B) 6 suspensions per week

C) A lock-down for 45 minutes

5Tuesday, December 7, 2010

An example of frequency in the community is

VoteA) 5 out of 20 times clerks

sell alcohol to minors last month

B) The student keg-party lasted for 4.5 hours

C) The car crash involving a DUI killed four people

6Tuesday, December 7, 2010

An example of duration at school is

VoteA) The student slept through

two class periods

B) Attendance this month was 87.3%

C) Half of the kids on probation got all F’s at school

7Tuesday, December 7, 2010

An example of duration in community is

VoteA) The members of the gang

were charged with with 16 felonies

B) The arson will close the Boy’s & Girl’s Club for two weeks

C) The arson cost $350K

8Tuesday, December 7, 2010

An example of intensity at school is

VoteA) Student shoots and

wounds two students.

B) 14% of the students did not turn in homework today.

C) The students created a disturbance for 15 minutes

9Tuesday, December 7, 2010

An example of intensity in community is

VoteA) A police offer killed by

meth addict after 45 minute car crash

B) The average zoo visitor spends 2.5 hours

C) The police had 245 service calls last week.

10Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Before and after trend line on neighborhood impact by our coalition

11Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Trend-line for humorous warnings on binge drinking

0

4

8

12

16

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Per

cent

age

No Warnings Humorous Warnings

12Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Reversal design to reduce bullying and aggression

13Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Reversal design to improve seeking treatment

14Tuesday, December 7, 2010

15Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Reward & Reminder:

Everyday scientist results

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Baseline After Reward and Reminder

Perc

enta

ge o

f Ille

gal o

r Non

-Com

plia

nt T

obac

co S

ales

to M

inor

s Wyoming

Wisconsin

2005 2006

2005 2006

2007

2007

16Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Reward & Reminder:

Everyday scientist results

Youth Who Smoked Every Day the Last 30 Days

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Baseline Reward and Reminder

Source: YRBS, US Centers for Disease Control

Wyoming

Wisconsin

United States

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Wyoming

Wisconsin

United States

Youth Who Smoked During the Last 30 DaysBaseline Reward and Reminder

Source: YRBS, US Centers for Disease Control

= Trend = Wyoming = Wisconsin =United States

Youth Who Smoked Every Day the Last 30 Days

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Baseline Reward and Reminder

Source: YRBS, US Centers for Disease Control

Wyoming

Wisconsin

United States

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Wyoming

Wisconsin

United States

Youth Who Smoked During the Last 30 DaysBaseline Reward and Reminder

Source: YRBS, US Centers for Disease Control

= Trend = Wyoming = Wisconsin =United States

17Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Survival analysis to show long-term advantage of a strategy

0

25

50

75

100

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8

Per

cent

Not

Usi

ng D

rugs

Standard Community TreatmentPrize Bowl for Recovery

18Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Forecasting for policy and mobilization

19Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Become an everyday scientistJoin us at www.paxis.org sign up for our blogs and other presentations.

Download materials that will be added over time to help you become an everyday scientist.

Consider using low-cost, evidence-based kernels to change your community. Kernels will soon be available in mid-2009 at…

www.GiveSimpleGifts.com

Thank you.

20Tuesday, December 7, 2010