oilseeds and cereals sector review
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Oilseeds and Cereals Sector Review. Chisinau, Moldova 14 June 2006 David Jackson, LMC International. Structure of Presentation. The productivity problem and solutions The processing sector Government policy and trade Recommendations. Farm Productivity: Problems and Solutions. 400. 1.6. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Oilseeds and Cereals Sector Review
Chisinau, Moldova14 June 2006David Jackson, LMC International
-
Structure of PresentationThe productivity problem and solutionsThe processing sectorGovernment policy and tradeRecommendations
-
Farm Productivity: Problems and Solutions
-
Sunflower Production and Yields
-
Cereal Production
-
Yields of Major Cereals
-
Sunflower ProductivityProduction has increased, but this has been due to area expansion rather than yield increasesArea expansion is derived from shortening rotations, not by cultivating new areasShorter rotations are one important factor contributing to declining yields
-
Cereal ProductivityCereal productivity has been broadly flatThe 2003 wheat harvest was decimated by winter kill from frost and windCereal area is less constrained by agronomic rotations than sun
-
Area of Major Arable Crops
Chart2
356700400000204300
341700403200216700
373000441500227700
436800471100208400
445300446700256700
149300557000352400
Wheat
Maize
Sunflower
'000 hectares
Area
199819992000200120022003
Wheat356,700341,700373,000436,800445,300149,300
Maize400,000403,200441,500471,100446,700557,000
Sunflower204,300216,700227,700208,400256,700352,400
Area
00204300
00216700
00227700
00208400
00256700
00352400
Wheat
Maize
Sunflower
'000 hectares
Production
1998199920002001200220032004
Wheat1,015,800848,200735,2001,370,0001,180,000101,000831,000
Maize1,238,9001,126,300971,700825,3001,200,0001,374,0002,090,000
Barley215,884182,558133,035230,939220,47956,584206,400
Rye216,500196,300126,900247,000256,50015,500310,000
Production
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
Wheat
Maize
Barley
Rye
Million tonnes
Prices
20002001200220032004
Domestic83.673.955.9104.697.3
Export Parity65.672.362.897.6105.9
Import Parity120.3124.7126.9144.2167.4
20002001200220032004
Domestic75706010599
Export Parity285270160170140
Prices
000
000
000
000
000
Domestic
Export Parity
Import Parity
US$ per tonne
Exports
00
00
00
00
00
Domestic
Export Parity
US$ per tonne
Quality
1998199920002001200220032004
Wheat32,200157,6002,10062,766376,77213,6008,492
Maize140,500115,90041,00028,02389,03485,90783,632
Barley7,70043,70010,70090,70299,8361,94779,840
imports
Quality
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Wheat
Maize
Barley
'000 tonnes
Yields
199920002001200220032004
Food Quality Wheat as % of total Crop35%30%31%34%44%51%
Forage Quality Wheat as % of total Crop65%70%69%66%56%49%
1998199920002001200220032004
Wheat2.882.491.962.722.680.683.06
Maize2.272.832.342.372.672.592.56
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Wheat
Maize
Tonnes per hectare
-
Gross Margins of Alternative Crops
Chart2
107.869063309522.0689161638
159.046670094516.2208082968
172.930618107666.0602061188
Direct Costs Basis
Direct + Indirect Costs Basis
US$ per tonne
FX
Source: National Bank of Moldova
M Lei/US$19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
Q13.814.374.544.664.708.7412.4212.6913.2114.1812.91
Q24.074.534.594.604.7310.7312.6212.9513.6214.3611.95
Q34.144.534.634.584.7911.0212.8812.8813.6413.9212.03
Q44.254.454.644.657.2511.5712.9412.9413.8213.3212.42
Crop YearM Lei/US$
1994/954.42
1995/964.55
1996/974.62
1997/984.72
1998/999.44
1999/0012.37
2000/0112.87
2001/0213.35
2002/0314.07
2003/0412.55
2004/0512.33
Sunseed Production
Sunflower Seed Crop
Area HarvestedYieldProduction
('000 ha)(tonne/ha)('000 tonnes)
1992/931311.5197
1993/941251.6194
1994/951391.1149
1995/961431.4203
1996/971981.4277
1997/981741.0175
1998/992041.0199
1999/002171.3286
2000/012281.3296
2001/022081.3278
2002/032571.2318
2003/043521.1390
Averages
1971/72-1980/811861.7318
1981/82-1990/911341.9252
1991/92-1994/951371.4188
1994/95-1998/991721.2201
1999/00-2003/042521.3313
Source: Moldova Department of Statistics
Sunseed Production
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Production
Yield
Output ('000 tonnes)
Yields (tonnes/ha)
Soybean Production
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Production
Yield
Output ('000 tonnes)
Yields (tonnes/ha)
Price Seasonality
Soybean Crop
Area HarvestedYieldProduction
('000 ha)(tonne/ha)('000 tonnes)
1992/9316.90.57.8
1993/949.31.09.3
1994/955.60.74.0
1995/963.30.92.9
1996/972.31.02.4
1997/982.31.22.7
1998/996.30.95.9
1999/0017.00.813.7
2000/0111.61.011.6
2001/029.41.09.5
2002/0310.21.212.6
2003/0418.31.119.4
Averages
1971/72-1980/815.10.94.5
1981/82-1990/9122.71.124.3
1991/92-1994/9511.11.011.5
1994/95-1998/994.00.93.6
1999/00-2003/0413.31.013.4
Source: Moldova Department of Statistics
Price Seasonality
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Production
Yield
Output ('000 tonnes)
Yields (tonnes/ha)
Area Plan
Moldova Prices, US$ per tonne
Domestic Sunflower Seed Price, ex-warehouse
Including VAT @ 5%Excluding VAT
MaximumMinimumAverageMaximumMinimumAverage
1999/00230160195219152186
2000/01225165195214157186
2001/02190140165181133157
2002/03225170198214162188
2003/04260190225248181214
Area Plan
00
00
00
00
00
Minimum
Maximum
US$ per tonne, ex-warehouse
Seed Yields
Government Crop Plan
SunflowerSunflowerSoybeanWinter WheatMaize
AreaYieldProductionAreaYieldProductionAreaYieldProductionAreaYieldProduction
000 hectaretonnes/hectare000 tonnes000 hectaretonnes/hectare000 tonnes000 hectaretonnes/hectare000 tonnes000 hectaretonnes/hectare000 tonnes
2005/062081.7349151.7253282.99568015.71259
2006/072031.8356151.7263203.09738516.51403
2007/081981.8363181.8323203.110059017.11537
2008/091911.9363191.8343203.210379518.01705
2009/101832.0366201.9373203.3106910018.61860
2010/111792.1368201.9393203.5111010019.21921
2011/121732.1370222.0433203.5111910019.81977
2012/131672.2371242.0483203.5112710020.32033
2013/141622.3372262.0523203.5113510020.92088
2014/151562.4374282.0573203.6114410021.42144
2015/161502.5375302.1623203.6115210022.02200
Seed Yields
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Area
Yield
Production
Area ('000 ha)/Production ('000 tonnes)
Yield (tonnes per hectare)
Future Sunseed
Average Maximum Yields for Imported Seed hybrid varieities, 2002-2004, t/ha
RegionAverage Maximum Yield
North3.1
Centre2.8
South2.3
Gross Margins
Area HarvestedYieldOutput
('000 ha)(tonnes/ha)('000 tonnes)2010 Area reduction
Average 1981/82-1990/911341.925210%
Average 1991/92-1998/991551.3195
Average 1999/00-2003/042521.3313OilMeal
2010/112271.6363149182
2015/161722.1361148180
David Jackson:Average Soviet era yield of 1.9; cautious rebound towards this
David Jackson:Gvt plan - medium term potential 2.5. We have been cautious, and assumed 2.1 is nearer relaistic expectations.
Prices
Source: CNFA
Winter WheatMaizeSunflower Seed
Sales Revenue (US$/ha)169181190
- Price (US$/tonne)6372156
- Yield (tonnes/ha)2.72.51.2
Direct Costs (US$/ha)622217
- Seeds481314
- Fertilisers1073
- Pesticides/Herbicides421
- Irrigation000
Gross Margin I (US$/ha)108159173
Mechanised Operations829090
Labour Operations45317
Gross Margin II (US$/ha)221666
Winter WheatMaizeSunflower Seed
Direct Costs Basis107.9159.0172.9
Direct + Indirect Costs Basis22.116.266.1
Prices
Direct Costs Basis
Direct + Indirect Costs Basis
US$ per tonne
Yields
Source: CNFA, Department of Statistics, Producer Prices
Lei/tonneWheatMaizeSunflowerseed
1995/96241750651
1996/97474412619
1997/98443412640
1998/99334328653
1999/005846031,298
2000/011,0391,0241,364
2001/029511,0411,899
2002/037589222,161
2003/041,4591,5502,118
2004/051,2001,2232,500
US$/tonneWheatMaizeSunflowerseed
1995/9653165143
1996/9710389134
1997/989487136
1998/99353569
1999/004749105
2000/018180106
2001/027178142
2002/035466154
2003/04116123169
2004/059799203
000 tonnes
ProductionMilling WheatMaizeSunflowerseed
2001/021,1811,118278
2002/031,1131,194318
2003/041011,414390
Yields
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Wheat
Maize
Sunflowerseed
US$ per tonne, producer prices
SD Balances
Source: Departrment of Statistics
000 tonnes
ProductionMilling WheatMaizeSunflowerseed
2001/021,1811,118278
2002/031,1131,194318
2003/041011,414390
tonnes/haWinter WheatMaizeSunflowerseed
1995/963.252.941.42
1996/972.012.911.40
1997/983.243.971.01
1998/992.673.100.98
1999/002.352.831.32
2000/011.962.341.30
2001/022.722.371.34
2002/032.512.671.24
2003/044.502.551.11
4.503.971.42
1.962.340.98
SD Balances
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Winter Wheat
Maize
Sunflowerseed
tonnes per hectare
Crushings
Source: Department of Statistics; PFAP
Sunflowerseed ('000 tonnes)For Diagram
ProductionDomestic CrushingNet ExportsImportsExportsX/ProductionProductionNet Exports
1995/962031842052512%20320
1996/972772364104115%27741
1997/981751076806839%17568
1998/991991326706734%19967
1999/002862206506523%28665
2000/01296188107411238%296107
2001/02278161109111039%278109
2002/033182645305417%31853
2003/043903207017118%39070
0
Sunflower Oil
Small CrushersProductionDomestic ConsumptionNet ExportsImportsExportsExports % Production
201995/9651.538.013.501426%
201996/9743.540.13.4048%
201997/9839.328.910.411126%
201998/9938.133.74.40512%
201999/0037.534.62.9038%
202000/0141.934.57.40718%
202001/0257.736.621.102137%
202002/0371.738.224.142834%
202003/0492.839.753.115457%
0.5%
Sunflower Meal
ProductionDomestic Sales estimate (tonnes)
1995/96102Balti crusher:
1996/971386,000
1997/9888Local farm crushers:
1998/9910030,000
1999/00143Total '000 tonnes
2000/0114836
2001/02139
2002/03159
2003/04195
Crushings
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Production
Net Exports
Domestic Crushing
'000 tonnes
Capacities
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Production
Domestic Consumption
Net Exports
'000 tonnes
Capacity Utilisation
Crushings, '000 tonnes
SunflowerSoybean
1995/96184-
1996/97236-
1997/98107-
1998/991324
1999/002206
2000/0118815
2001/0216132
2002/0326433
2003/0432040
davidj:Assumed 20,000 tonnes from small crushers, which does not seem to be accounted for. According to Floarea Soarelui, domestic market totals 40,000 tonnes pa, with 15-20,000 from small crushers.
Production
Net Exports
Domestic Crushing
'000 tonnes
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Capacity Comparison
Theoretical capacity of crushing plants '000 tonnes pa
PlantMinimum CapacityMaximum Capacity
Floarea Soarelui, Bli263313
Local Farm Crushers (various)5080
Total313393
Bender, Transniestr130?130?
-
-
-
-
Crushing Cost
Sun CrushingsSoy crushingSmall Scale CrushingBalti CrushBalti Capacity
1995/96184-6012426048%
1996/97236-6017626068%
1997/98107-604726018%
1998/991324607526029%
1999/0022066016526063%
2000/01188156014026054%
2001/02161326012528045%
2002/03264336022930076%
2003/04320406029030097%
For diagram:Indicative CapacitySeed Crushed (Sun+Soybean)
1995/96260124
1996/97260176
1997/9826047
1998/9926075
1999/00260165
2000/01260140
2001/02280125
2002/03300229
2003/04300290
Crushing Cost
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Indicative Capacity
Seed Crushed (Sun+Soybean)
'000 tonnes seed
Crushing Margin
Average Factory Capacity
Moldova900
Argentina2,038
Ukraine850
Russia1,803
France1,228
Spain523
Oil Consumption
Average 2001/01-2003/04
Capital &Fuel &of which
SundriesChemicalsLabourTOTALvariable costs:
Moldova
Base Case11.06.25.823.09.9
90% Capacity Utilisation8.36.26.120.79.5
5.16.46.017.58.1
Argentina12.46.91.620.99.9
Ukraine11.76.66.224.510.6
Russia12.46.25.824.410.3
France14.07.43.825.311.3
Spain20.38.87.036.114.9
From Ukraine study:
Ukraine
Base Case11.76.66.224.510.6
90% Capacity Utilisation8.46.36.220.99.6
Average Daily Capacity of 1,500 tpd4.86.05.616.47.6
davidj:Factory gave me this overall cost. Approtioned as per Ukraine.
davidj:factory also gave me this optimal estimate for 1,500 tpd and full utlisation.
Moldova
Domestic Prices, ex-works US$ per tonneOutput, '000 tonnesCrushing Margins, US$ per tonne
Sunflower OilSunflower MealSunflower SeedSeed Export ParityTotalSunflower OilSunflower MealSunflower SeedTable for report:
2001/02610751952782001/02581392782001/022002/032003/04Average
2002/03570701982242002/0372159318Moldova
2003/04620752252382003/0493195390- Domestic93716774
Average60073209242Domestic- Export99678286
2001/023736161Ukraine
FOB Export Prices, US$ per tonne2002/033836264- Domestic69649277
Sunflower OilSunflower MealSunflower SeedSeed Export Parity2003/044036320- Export493613193
2001/02630113195278Average3836248EU7102514
2002/0358492198224Export
2003/046501232252382001/0221103117At Export ParityOverall Crushing Margins
Average6261102042422002/0334123532001/022002/032003/04Average
2003/045315970Actual Margin97687882
Average3612880Margin At Export Parity13426547
Domestic Crushing Margins, US$ per tonneFactors:
DomesticAt Export ParityOil0.41
2001/029310Meal0.5
2002/037145Fobbing:US$ per tonne
2003/046754Land Freight to Port15
Average7441Loading and rail costs7
Meal Premium2
Export Crushing Margins, US$ per tonne
At Export ParityOutput, '000 tonnes
2001/029916Sum
2002/0367402001/0258139278
2003/0482692002/0372159318
Average86492003/0493195390
Average74164329
Overall Weighted Average Crushing Margin
With VAT Refund on ExportsWithout VAT Refund on ExportsAt Export Parity
2001/02973413
2002/03682342
2003/04781865
Average822347
davidj:See Sun Prices (Vest resurs) data
davidj:From Floarea Soarelui visit notes, and vest resurs confirmed
davidj:From Floarea Soarelui visit notes
davidj:From Floarea Soarelui visit notes
davidj:From Floarea Soarelui visit notes
davidj:Floarea told me they think they make US$25 on each tonne of seed. As cost is US$25 is, this gives margin of US$50 per tonne. However, others in the industry believed margin was US$100 per tonne, which would mean US$75 profit per tonne.
davidj:Linked to Ukraine domestic oil price
davidj:Linked to Ukraine domestic meal price
davidj:Ukraine prices
00
00
00
00
Actual Margin
Margin At Export Parity
US$ per tonne seed
00
00
00
00
Actual Margin
Margin At Export Parity
US$ per tonne seed
Household Consumption, '000 tonnes
Average 2001/02-2003/04
Refined Bottled Oil7
Non-Bottled Oil22
Total Vegetable Oil Consumption, '000 tonnes
Sunflower
1995/9638
1996/9740
1997/9829
1998/9934
1999/0035
2000/0134
2001/0237
2002/0338
2003/0440
Consumption Forecast
2010/1147
2015/1655
1999/002000/012001/022002/032003/04
Total Domestic Consumption34.634.536.638.239.7
Industry consumption4.94.95.05.05.0
Household consumption29.729.531.633.134.7
0
0
Average 2001/02-2003/04
00
00
00
00
00
Household consumption
Industry consumption
'000 tonnes
davidj:Florea Soarelui sell 3/8 of domestic market sales as as bottled oil
davidj:Florea Soarelui sell 5/8 of domestic market sales as as non-bottled oil, plus all rurual crushers sales non-bottled (unrefined)
davidj:see Floarea visit notes
-
Reasons for Low YieldsShorter rotations (sunflower)Lack of creditReduced inputsLow technological baseInferior seed quality
-
Solutions for Low YieldsMany of the problems can be traced to credit, such as:Seed qualityInput applicationsRotational practices (sunflower)Price incentives
-
The Processing Sector
-
Sunseed Output and Net Exports
-
Major Cereal Exports
-
Sun Crushing Costs Comparison
Chart4
17.5
20.6761515145
20.8726495421
23
24.4363394878
24.482004401
25.2924635791
36.1448264688
US$ per tonne of seed
FX
Source: National Bank of Moldova
M Lei/US$19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
Q13.814.374.544.664.708.7412.4212.6913.2114.1812.91
Q24.074.534.594.604.7310.7312.6212.9513.6214.3611.95
Q34.144.534.634.584.7911.0212.8812.8813.6413.9212.03
Q44.254.454.644.657.2511.5712.9412.9413.8213.3212.42
Crop YearM Lei/US$
1994/954.42
1995/964.55
1996/974.62
1997/984.72
1998/999.44
1999/0012.37
2000/0112.87
2001/0213.35
2002/0314.07
2003/0412.55
2004/0512.33
Sunseed Production
Sunflower Seed Crop
Area HarvestedYieldProduction
('000 ha)(tonne/ha)('000 tonnes)
1992/931311.5197
1993/941251.6194
1994/951391.1149
1995/961431.4203
1996/971981.4277
1997/981741.0175
1998/992041.0199
1999/002171.3286
2000/012281.3296
2001/022081.3278
2002/032571.2318
2003/043521.1390
Averages
1971/72-1980/811861.7318
1981/82-1990/911341.9252
1991/92-1994/951371.4188
1994/95-1998/991721.2201
1999/00-2003/042521.3313
Source: Moldova Department of Statistics
Sunseed Production
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Production
Yield
Output ('000 tonnes)
Yields (tonnes/ha)
Soybean Production
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Production
Yield
Output ('000 tonnes)
Yields (tonnes/ha)
Price Seasonality
Soybean Crop
Area HarvestedYieldProduction
('000 ha)(tonne/ha)('000 tonnes)
1992/9316.90.57.8
1993/949.31.09.3
1994/955.60.74.0
1995/963.30.92.9
1996/972.31.02.4
1997/982.31.22.7
1998/996.30.95.9
1999/0017.00.813.7
2000/0111.61.011.6
2001/029.41.09.5
2002/0310.21.212.6
2003/0418.31.119.4
Averages
1971/72-1980/815.10.94.5
1981/82-1990/9122.71.124.3
1991/92-1994/9511.11.011.5
1994/95-1998/994.00.93.6
1999/00-2003/0413.31.013.4
Source: Moldova Department of Statistics
Price Seasonality
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Production
Yield
Output ('000 tonnes)
Yields (tonnes/ha)
Area Plan
Moldova Prices, US$ per tonne
Domestic Sunflower Seed Price, ex-warehouse
Including VAT @ 5%Excluding VAT
MaximumMinimumAverageMaximumMinimumAverage
1999/00230160195219152186
2000/01225165195214157186
2001/02190140165181133157
2002/03225170198214162188
2003/04260190225248181214
Area Plan
00
00
00
00
00
Minimum
Maximum
US$ per tonne, ex-warehouse
Seed Yields
Government Crop Plan
SunflowerSunflowerSoybeanWinter WheatMaize
AreaYieldProductionAreaYieldProductionAreaYieldProductionAreaYieldProduction
000 hectaretonnes/hectare000 tonnes000 hectaretonnes/hectare000 tonnes000 hectaretonnes/hectare000 tonnes000 hectaretonnes/hectare000 tonnes
2005/062081.7349151.7253282.99568015.71259
2006/072031.8356151.7263203.09738516.51403
2007/081981.8363181.8323203.110059017.11537
2008/091911.9363191.8343203.210379518.01705
2009/101832.0366201.9373203.3106910018.61860
2010/111792.1368201.9393203.5111010019.21921
2011/121732.1370222.0433203.5111910019.81977
2012/131672.2371242.0483203.5112710020.32033
2013/141622.3372262.0523203.5113510020.92088
2014/151562.4374282.0573203.6114410021.42144
2015/161502.5375302.1623203.6115210022.02200
Seed Yields
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Area
Yield
Production
Area ('000 ha)/Production ('000 tonnes)
Yield (tonnes per hectare)
Future Sunseed
Average Maximum Yields for Imported Seed hybrid varieities, 2002-2004, t/ha
RegionAverage Maximum Yield
North3.1
Centre2.8
South2.3
Gross Margins
Area HarvestedYieldOutput
('000 ha)(tonnes/ha)('000 tonnes)2010 Area reduction
Average 1981/82-1990/911341.925210%
Average 1991/92-1998/991551.3195
Average 1999/00-2003/042521.3313OilMeal
2010/112271.6363149182
2015/161722.1361148180
David Jackson:Average Soviet era yield of 1.9; cautious rebound towards this
David Jackson:Gvt plan - medium term potential 2.5. We have been cautious, and assumed 2.1 is nearer relaistic expectations.
Prices
Source: CNFA
Winter WheatMaizeSunflower Seed
Sales Revenue (US$/ha)169181190
- Price (US$/tonne)6372156
- Yield (tonnes/ha)2.72.51.2
Direct Costs (US$/ha)622217
- Seeds481314
- Fertilisers1073
- Pesticides/Herbicides421
- Irrigation000
Gross Margin I (US$/ha)108159173
Mechanised Operations829090
Labour Operations45317
Gross Margin II (US$/ha)221666
Winter WheatMaizeSunflower Seed
Direct Costs Basis107.9159.0172.9
Direct + Indirect Costs Basis22.116.266.1
Prices
Direct Costs Basis
Direct + Indirect Costs Basis
US$ per tonne
Yields
Source: CNFA, Department of Statistics, Producer Prices
Lei/tonneWheatMaizeSunflowerseed
1995/96241750651
1996/97474412619
1997/98443412640
1998/99334328653
1999/005846031,298
2000/011,0391,0241,364
2001/029511,0411,899
2002/037589222,161
2003/041,4591,5502,118
2004/051,2001,2232,500
US$/tonneWheatMaizeSunflowerseed
1995/9653165143
1996/9710389134
1997/989487136
1998/99353569
1999/004749105
2000/018180106
2001/027178142
2002/035466154
2003/04116123169
2004/059799203
000 tonnes
ProductionMilling WheatMaizeSunflowerseed
2001/021,1811,118278
2002/031,1131,194318
2003/041011,414390
Yields
Wheat
Maize
Sunflowerseed
US$ per tonne, producer prices
SD Balances
Source: Departrment of Statistics
000 tonnes
ProductionMilling WheatMaizeSunflowerseed
2001/021,1811,118278
2002/031,1131,194318
2003/041011,414390
tonnes/haWinter WheatMaizeSunflowerseed
1995/963.252.941.42
1996/972.012.911.40
1997/983.243.971.01
1998/992.673.100.98
1999/002.352.831.32
2000/011.962.341.30
2001/022.722.371.34
2002/032.512.671.24
2003/044.502.551.11
4.503.971.42
1.962.340.98
SD Balances
Winter Wheat
Maize
Sunflowerseed
tonnes per hectare
Crushings
Source: Department of Statistics; PFAP
Sunflowerseed ('000 tonnes)For Diagram
ProductionDomestic CrushingNet ExportsImportsExportsX/ProductionProductionNet Exports
1995/962031842052512%20320
1996/972772364104115%27741
1997/981751076806839%17568
1998/991991326706734%19967
1999/002862206506523%28665
2000/01296188107411238%296107
2001/02278161109111039%278109
2002/033182645305417%31853
2003/043903207017118%39070
0
Sunflower Oil
Small CrushersProductionDomestic ConsumptionNet ExportsImportsExportsExports % Production
201995/9651.538.013.501426%
201996/9743.540.13.4048%
201997/9839.328.910.411126%
201998/9938.133.74.40512%
201999/0037.534.62.9038%
202000/0141.934.57.40718%
202001/0257.736.621.102137%
202002/0371.738.224.142834%
202003/0492.839.753.115457%
0.5%
Sunflower Meal
ProductionDomestic Sales estimate (tonnes)
1995/96102Balti crusher:
1996/971386,000
1997/9888Local farm crushers:
1998/9910030,000
1999/00143Total '000 tonnes
2000/0114836
2001/02139
2002/03159
2003/04195
Crushings
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Production
Net Exports
Domestic Crushing
'000 tonnes
Capacities
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Production
Domestic Consumption
Net Exports
'000 tonnes
Capacity Utilisation
Crushings, '000 tonnes
SunflowerSoybean
1995/96184-
1996/97236-
1997/98107-
1998/991324
1999/002206
2000/0118815
2001/0216132
2002/0326433
2003/0432040
davidj:Assumed 20,000 tonnes from small crushers, which does not seem to be accounted for. According to Floarea Soarelui, domestic market totals 40,000 tonnes pa, with 15-20,000 from small crushers.
Production
Net Exports
Domestic Crushing
'000 tonnes
Capacity Comparison
Theoretical capacity of crushing plants '000 tonnes pa
PlantMinimum CapacityMaximum Capacity
Floarea Soarelui, Bli263313
Local Farm Crushers (various)5080
Total313393
Bender, Transniestr130?130?
-
-
-
-
Crushing Cost
Sun CrushingsSoy crushingSmall Scale CrushingBalti CrushBalti Capacity
1995/96184-6012426048%
1996/97236-6017626068%
1997/98107-604726018%
1998/991324607526029%
1999/0022066016526063%
2000/01188156014026054%
2001/02161326012528045%
2002/03264336022930076%
2003/04320406029030097%
For diagram:Indicative CapacitySeed Crushed (Sun+Soybean)
1995/96260124
1996/97260176
1997/9826047
1998/9926075
1999/00260165
2000/01260140
2001/02280125
2002/03300229
2003/04300290
Crushing Cost
Indicative Capacity
Seed Crushed (Sun+Soybean)
'000 tonnes seed
Crushing Margin
Average Factory Capacity
Moldova900
Argentina2,038
Ukraine850
Russia1,803
France1,228
Spain523
Oil Consumption
Average 2001/01-2003/04
Capital &Fuel &of which
SundriesChemicalsLabourTOTALvariable costs:
Moldova
Base Case11.06.25.823.09.9
90% Capacity Utilisation8.36.26.120.79.5
5.16.46.017.58.1
Argentina12.46.91.620.99.9
Ukraine11.76.66.224.510.6
Russia12.46.25.824.410.3
France14.07.43.825.311.3
Spain20.38.87.036.114.9
From Ukraine study:
Ukraine
Base Case11.76.66.224.510.6
90% Capacity Utilisation8.46.36.220.99.6
Average Daily Capacity of 1,500 tpd4.86.05.616.47.6
Moldova - 1,500 tpd17.5
Moldova - 90% Utilisation20.7
Argentina20.9
Moldova - Current23.0
Russia24.4
Ukraine24.5
France25.3
Spain36.1
davidj:Factory gave me this overall cost. Approtioned as per Ukraine.
davidj:factory also gave me this optimal estimate for 1,500 tpd and full utlisation.
Oil Consumption
US$ per tonne of seed
Moldova
Domestic Prices, ex-works US$ per tonneOutput, '000 tonnesCrushing Margins, US$ per tonne
Sunflower OilSunflower MealSunflower SeedSeed Export ParityTotalSunflower OilSunflower MealSunflower SeedTable for report:
2001/02610751952782001/02581392782001/022002/032003/04Average
2002/03570701982242002/0372159318Moldova
2003/04620752252382003/0493195390- Domestic93716774
Average60073209242Domestic- Export99678286
2001/023736161Ukraine
FOB Export Prices, US$ per tonne2002/033836264- Domestic69649277
Sunflower OilSunflower MealSunflower SeedSeed Export Parity2003/044036320- Export493613193
2001/02630113195278Average3836248EU7102514
2002/0358492198224Export
2003/046501232252382001/0221103117At Export ParityOverall Crushing Margins
Average6261102042422002/0334123532001/022002/032003/04Average
2003/045315970Actual Margin97687882
Average3612880Margin At Export Parity13426547
Domestic Crushing Margins, US$ per tonneFactors:
DomesticAt Export ParityOil0.41
2001/029310Meal0.5
2002/037145Fobbing:US$ per tonne
2003/046754Land Freight to Port15
Average7441Loading and rail costs7
Meal Premium2
Export Crushing Margins, US$ per tonne
At Export ParityOutput, '000 tonnes
2001/029916Sum
2002/0367402001/0258139278
2003/0482692002/0372159318
Average86492003/0493195390
Average74164329
Overall Weighted Average Crushing Margin
With VAT Refund on ExportsWithout VAT Refund on ExportsAt Export Parity
2001/02973413
2002/03682342
2003/04781865
Average822347
davidj:See Sun Prices (Vest resurs) data
davidj:From Floarea Soarelui visit notes, and vest resurs confirmed
davidj:From Floarea Soarelui visit notes
davidj:From Floarea Soarelui visit notes
davidj:From Floarea Soarelui visit notes
davidj:Floarea told me they think they make US$25 on each tonne of seed. As cost is US$25 is, this gives margin of US$50 per tonne. However, others in the industry believed margin was US$100 per tonne, which would mean US$75 profit per tonne.
davidj:Linked to Ukraine domestic oil price
davidj:Linked to Ukraine domestic meal price
davidj:Ukraine prices
00
00
00
00
Actual Margin
Margin At Export Parity
US$ per tonne seed
00
00
00
00
Actual Margin
Margin At Export Parity
US$ per tonne seed
Household Consumption, '000 tonnes
Average 2001/02-2003/04
Refined Bottled Oil7
Non-Bottled Oil22
Total Vegetable Oil Consumption, '000 tonnes
Sunflower
1995/9638
1996/9740
1997/9829
1998/9934
1999/0035
2000/0134
2001/0237
2002/0338
2003/0440
Consumption Forecast
2010/1147
2015/1655
1999/002000/012001/022002/032003/04
Total Domestic Consumption34.634.536.638.239.7
Industry consumption4.94.95.05.05.0
Household consumption29.729.531.633.134.7
0
0
Average 2001/02-2003/04
00
00
00
00
00
Household consumption
Industry consumption
'000 tonnes
davidj:Florea Soarelui sell 3/8 of domestic market sales as as bottled oil
davidj:Florea Soarelui sell 5/8 of domestic market sales as as non-bottled oil, plus all rurual crushers sales non-bottled (unrefined)
davidj:see Floarea visit notes
-
Crushing Margins ($/tonne seed)
-
Sun Crushing IssuesMargins higher than risk premiumMargins similar to Ukraine,where a 17% export tax was appliedHigh margins attract entrants Domestic sector too small for two efficient crushers
-
Government Policy and Trade
-
Domestic Sunflower Seed Prices
-
Domestic Wheat Prices
-
Domestic Maize Prices
-
Non-Transparent Trade BarriersSunflower now less than export parity (17% 2001/2 to 11% 2003/4)Maize less than export parityWheat did not rise to import parity
-
Sun Crush Margin in Free Market
-
Sun Non-Transparent Trade BarriersPrior to 2004:Export documentationCustoms clearanceRail facilities
-
Wheat Trade BarriersDomestic market intervention via state bakeries and import licenceFixed milling margins for low value breadState grain reserveNeed for clear price stabilisation techniques
-
Common Non-Transparent BarriersPost 2004:UCE single export channel UCE export feeExport payment systemState rail monopoly
-
Recommendations
-
Sun - Key Policy ActionsAccess to creditAccess to export marketsTransparent pricingSeed quality
-
Cereals - Key Policy ActionsStrategic reserve guidelinesRevise bread price controlsMarket accessMarket information
-
Access to CreditEncourage land marketLand titling/collateralEncourage crop financing (e.g. export market access)Efficient warehouse receipting
-
Access to Export MarketRemove single export channelRemove rail monopolyFacilitate rail transportFacilitate customs and bordersRationalise documentation
-
Transparent PricesPublished domestic, regional and international pricesMandatory seed pricing formula