oil peak, facts and policies energy policy gary flomenhoft, fellow gund institute lecturer,...
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Oil Peak, Facts and PoliciesEnergy Policy
Gary Flomenhoft, Fellow Gund InstituteLecturer, Community and Intl. Developmenthttp://www.uvm.edu/giee
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1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950
Fuel
DomesticatedAnimals
Labor
Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970
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Composition of U.S. Energy UseComposition of U.S. Energy Use
wood
animal feed
coal
oil
gas
electricity
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Energy Densities of Fuels
Fuel Energy Density (Mj/kg)
Peats, green wood, grasses 5.0-10.0Crop residues, air-dried wood 12.0-15.0Bituminous coals 18.0-25.0Charcoal, anthracite coals 18.0-32.0Crude oils 40.0-44.0
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WORLD
ENERGY
2004
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Net Energy
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Hubbert Oil Cycle
Marion King (MK)Hubbert
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The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation(after Hubbert, 1969)
0-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
Iron inMiddleEast
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Parthenoncompleted
Pyramidsconstructed
Mayanculture
Inquisition
BlackDeath
Magellan'sCircumnavigation
Steam Engine
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US Oil Extraction
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World Oil Extraction
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Oil Reserves
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US Oil Extraction
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World Oil Extraction
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World Oil Extraction
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Source: Boyle, et al, Oxford Press
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Oil consumption by area
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OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS ASPO Scenario
Net Energy from Oil and Gas Liquids
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World Oil Extraction
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World Oil Flows
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Oil Producers: 98 countries
www.lastoilshock.com
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Oil Producers: 64 from 98 in decline, 60 terminally
www.lastoilshock.com
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http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3087
Oil Watch Monthly: October 2007
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Business As Usual-EIA
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Business As Usual-EIA
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1960-1980 Predictions
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1975-1983
Predictions
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Real Price of Oil 1869-2007
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$145
$56.34
May 18, 09
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Dubai Oil Prices and US Oil Consumption
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Dubai Oil Prices and US GDP
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Dubai oil Price 2006 $ US GDP billions chained 2006 $
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Dubai Oil Prices and US OIL/GDP ratio
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Dubai oil Price 2006 $ oil consumption/GDP 2006 $
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World Oil Extraction
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Dumped Gas Hogs
1974 Lincoln~8mpg
1974 Corolla~30mpg
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Jet Industries:
Citi-Car(Beaumont)
Electricar Lectra
1980’s 2nd Wave of EVs
“Better batteries 10 years away”
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WORLD ENERGY
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2001 Vermont Own Load Electric Energy Supply
Nuclear
36.3%
Renewable
4.9%Hydro
6.9%
Hydro Quebec
34.9%
System
14.4%
Oil
1.6%
Gas
1.0%Coal
0.0%
(61% FF=8.8%FF)
8.8+1.6+1= 11.4% Fossil Fuels
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How VT Heats
86% Fossil Fuels
Fuel oil, kerosene
60%Bottled gas, LP
14%
Utility gas (nat gas)
12%
other fuel
wood9%
Coal or coke0%
electric5%
solar energy
no fuel
86% Fossil Fuels
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How People Move-USEIA
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Hummer H1Sticker price $106,185
Current lawEquipment deduction $25,000Total tax deduction* $60,722
Bush economic planEquipment deduction $75,000Total tax deduction* $88,722
* Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation.
Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense
Gas Hog Tax Credit
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Source: EPA
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Policy Recommendations: Guidelines
1. Eliminate perverse incentives-make money!
2. Provide positive incentives-account for externalities. ie: putting a price on carbon-make money or revenue neutral.
3. Regulate (higher mpg)
3. Spend money
The playing field is NOT level. Fossil Fuels have 100 years of subsidies,ignoring external costs, and a huge lobby in DC. Don’t expect the “free market” to take care of it.
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WHAT TO DO? Reactive or Pro-active?
WHAT DON’T WE HAVE?•Oil-zero•Coal-zero•Nat Gas-not much (landfills)
Why promote consumption of something we don’t have?
* Conduct an audit of perverse incentives promoting FF use. Eliminate perverse incentives.
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WHAT TO DO?
DEALING WITH PEAK OIL IS GOOD FOR
•Climate Change
•Vermont Economy
•Should do it anyway
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WHAT TO DO? Provide incentives Ex: Germany
Policies, Market-based Instruments:
1. 1999 Tax & Rebate on Fuel (tax cut): Diesel/gasoline $1.79-2.48/gallon Funds rebated to payroll taxes-89%, efficiency, and RE
2. 2005 Cap/trade for CO2-powerplants and industrial heat
3. 1991 Feed-in Tariffs: Wind=$.1149, PV=$.6385, hydro=$.1055, biogas=$.1551
• No costs to government
Results:
1. PV Industry: 2715 MW installed, 52% of world total, 40,000 employed(US has 360 MW installed or 13% of Germany)
2. Wind Industry: 22,247MW, 28% of world total, 82,000 employed (United States 16,818MW)
3. Biomass sector 95,400 employed
Total: 217,000 employees in RE
~107,000 FF & nuclear
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WHAT TO DO? Reactive or Pro-active?
WHAT DO WE HAVE TO WORK WITH?•Trees•Farms•Cows•Land•Wind•Sun•Big and Small Hydro•Smart People•Indigenous Energy Industry•Entrepreneurs
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WHAT TO DO? Electricity
•VT Yankee = 550MW CT River Dams-567MW.
•Dams = $160 Million/year revenue.
•Buy the dams. Use eminent domain if necessary
•Fast-track small hydro-up to 400MW
•Approve more wind farms
•More Wood chip plants
•Etc.
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WHAT TO DO? Heat
• All-fuels efficiency/ weatherization
• District heating and co-generation
• Biodiesel heating fuel
• Wood and wood chip/pellet heating
• Building codes requiring passive solar, thermal mass, window
insulation, Solar hot water
• Wood stoves
• High Performance Schools Energy Program
• Cap/dividend on carbon-heating fuel
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WHAT TO DO? Transportation
•Hybrids
•Plug-in hybrids
•Electric vehicles
•Alternative fuels, ethanol, methanol (flex-fuel), biodiesel
•Trains
•Public transit-Jitneys
•Bike/pedestrian paths
•Tax/rebate on fuels
•Cap/dividend on carbon-vehicles
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WHAT TO DO? Agriculture
•Don’t turn food into fuel
•Biodiesel: waste oil, algae, non-food crops
Methane digesters: “Cow-power”
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Crisis or Opportunity
We will shift from Fossil Fuels.
Will we be Pro-active or reactive?
It’s up to you.