offshore forum ppt merged for web

8/10/2019 Offshore Forum Ppt Merged for Web

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London3 October 2012

Standard Club Offshore Forum 2012


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Alistair GroomChief Executive, Standard Club

Standard Club - update


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Contents

key information

Standard Offshore current issues

club development

3


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Swire Blue Ocean Pacific Orca

4


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0

50

100

150200

250

300

350

400

50

75

100

125

150

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013forecast

Tonnage Free Reserves Premium

Key metrics

5

$ MillionGT Millions

2011 figures are restated to take into account the re-organisation of the Standard Clubs


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Current financial influences

difficult financial markets, small investment gains so far this year

P&I claims generally stable but: continued P&I claims inflation

general under-rating across the market as a whole

tough financial conditions for many members defence claims continue at a much higher level since 2008

6


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1 Sovereign bonds 43.9%2 Corporate bonds 30.7%

3 Equities 14.9%

4 Alternatives 2.7%

5 Cash 7.0%6 Gold 0.8%

Asset allocation

7

1

2

3

45 6

As at 20 September 2012


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8.6

-17.4

18

9.96.7

3

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Feb -Sept 2012est

Investment return

8

%


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Standard Offshore

high level of specialist expertise, unique breadth of experience

dedicated syndicate contract risk assessment

standard form and bespoke cover terms

successful underwriting first class reinsurance programme

offshore surveys

9


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Offshore ship types by tonnage


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Standard Offshore where we dobusiness


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53

68

79 7983

0

20

40

60

80

100

2009 2010 2011 2012 Oct-12

Standard Offshore members

12


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Tonnage and units

13

10.912.3 12.9

14.6 14.7

845

9891,036

1,134

1,245

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

0

5

10

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 Oct-12

GT M Units

Tonnage

Units


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293

360

427

545

660

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2009 2010 2011 2012 Oct-12

Contracts reviewed

14


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Standard Offshore

15

Offshore Director

Syndicate Claims

Director

Fabien Lerede

Claims Director

Ursula ODonnell

Claims Executives

Rupert Banks

Roger JohnsonLeanne OLoughlin

Claims

Robert Dorey

Underwriters

John CroucherClaire Wheeler

+ 1

Deputy Underwriters

Joseph DivisSian Meadows

Underwriting AssistantsHannah DayBrendan PirCelia Harrison

Underwriting Support

Nikki MortonOffshore RegionalClaims Director

Sharmini Murugason

Singapore


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Current issues

renewal

reinsurance Solvency II

piracy

fines sanctions

16


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Club development

new covers:

kidnap and ransom cover traders transport cover

professional liability cover

widening the offering growing the service

17


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,

3 2012

D ,E ,

&


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IEAs World Energy Outlook 2011(three policy scenarios: current, newand 450)

Fossil fuels continue to dominate energy supplies out to

2035: (75-80% in currentand new, 60-65% in 450) Oil maintains largest share (new); or coal (current) and

renewables (450) take largest shares

Electricity consumption grows faster than any other enduse of energy, driving growth in both coal and gasconsumption

Coal remains backbone of world power generation, butgas gains share at coals expense

Natural gas will play a key role; indeed, gas may be

entering a golden age2


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1980 2005 2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1980 2005 2030

Global Energy Demand and SupplyBy Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

By FuelQuadrillion BTUs

Power Generation

Industrial

Transportation

Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Hydro, Geo

Wind, Solar, Biofuels

Courtesy of ExxonMobil. IEAs Outlook = very similar.2


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0

20

40

60

80

100

Energy Use Evolves Over Time

Percent Global Percentage Mixture of Fuels

1800 1900 20001850 1950

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

2040

2


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UKCS Reserves and Resources (forecast)

2

As at 31st December 2011:

> 41 billion boe produced so farfrom UKs continental shelf~ 15-25 billion boe to be produced


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UKCS Production Forecast (oil and gas)

2


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Production Forecast (oil and gas liquids)

2


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Production Forecast (gas)

26


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Estimated UKCS Reserves Approved for

Development by DECC, in Year Approved

27


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Potential New Fields By Size

28


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UKCS Expenditure, Actual and Forecast

29


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UKCS What Future? Closing Thoughts

In 2011, UKCS production met ~50% of our total energyrequirements and >60% of oil and gas demand

Could still satisfy ~50% of oil and gas demand in 2020, IF investmentmaintained and decline in reliability reversed

Could still be producing through 2040s, even to 2050

Total production to end 2011 some 41 billion boe, with 15-25 billionboe forecast as remaining, but need more E&A drilling

Sector remains biggest industrial investor in the economy total

capex over 40+ years >300 billion (2011 s to end 2011) Total tax paid on production >300 billion (2011 s to end 2011)

Tax system needs further change to recover the 15-25 bn boe

Theres life in the old dog yet!! 30


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CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD

3rd October 2012

Standard Offshore Forum 2012

Clarkson Research

Offshore & The Global Energy Markets

Spar (SP)Platform600 to

3000 M

Sub-sea(SS)

System

to 2400 M

Tension LegPlatform(TLP)500 to

2400 M

FloatingProduction

System(FPS)500 to

2000 M

Compliant

Tower(CT)

500 to1000 M

FixedPlatform

(FP)500 M


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Agenda

1. Market Trends

2. Offshore and the Energy Markets

3. Offshore Oil & Gas Production4. Offshore Regional Trends

5. Offshore Fleet & Structures

6. Conclusions


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The offshore marketcontinues its buoyanttrend with heavy

investment


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Offshore Market (Rates)

11 11 12 12

$/ 131 139 165 160

$/ 410 445 521 537

D 142 163 166 166

114 130 137 137 121 135 141 141

A 100 102 104 106

A, 12 C $/ 43,625 46,950 46,000 46,350, 12 C $/ 21,625 29,950 27,500 28,600

(2011=100) 100 113 118 119


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Leading Indicators

Source: CRSL

2011 12

D 136 195 D 82% 98%

A 5>B 89% 90%

$110 $113 $4 $2.5 D

B E& 4% 5%

EA E D ' 4.6% 4.7%

, 289 341

, 115 115 AE

Oil Price Scenarios & IEA Scenarios


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010203040506070

8090

100110120

130140150

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Oil Price (2011 $)

450 Scenario

New PoliciesCurrent Policies

Oil Price Scenarios & IEA Scenarios

current policiesscenario: price pushedup to $140/barrel in

2035 (at 2011 constantprices)

New policies take theprice down to$113/barrel

The Carbon 450Scenario takes the

price down to$90/barrel

$2009/bbl

Figure 3: The IEA Oil price scenarios 2011

450$92/bl

New$118/bl

Current$140/bl

Approximate deepwater offshore cost/bbl

0102030405060708090

100

110120130140150

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Brent $/bbl

Off h I t t & Oil P i


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Offshore Investment & Oil Prices

0

100

200

300400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

500m)

Shallow Water (


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DP Fleet Age Profile

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

NumberofVessels

0%

5%

10%

15%20%

25%

30%35%

40%

45%

50%% of the fleey

DP in each yearUtility SupportSurveyRescue & Salvage

PSV/Supply>3,000 DWTPSV/Supply8,000 BHPAHTS


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Offshore is a regional market with specificrequirements in each

Following trends and forecasts isimportant

Development trends

help identify futureinvestment needs


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World Oil Producing Regions

1. N. AmericaOffshore: 4.0 m bpd

Growth: -1% pa

2. S&CAmerica

Offshore:2.9 m bpdGrowth:2% pa

4. EuropeOffshore:2.8 m bpd

Growth: -2% pa

7. AsiaPacific

Offshore: 3.4m bpd

Growth: 1%

pa

5. Med/ CaspianOffshore: 2.1 m

bpdGrowth: 3% pa

6. M East& India

Offshore:6.7 m bpdGrowth:2% pa

3. West

AfricaOffshore:4.5 m bpdGrowth:4% pa

FPSOOther

SubseaExt.

Fixed Other

No. Offshore Fields by Development TypeProducing

R i

Other

Mobile,

88

FPSO,

95


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Over 3,000producing fields.

Brazil biggest FPSOmarket, followed by

Asia Pacific.

North Sea largestsubsea market in

numbers terms.

FPSOMOPU

SubseaReach

Fixed Other

USA Gulf of Mexico 42 184 9 634Mexico Gulf of Mexico 1 1 55 1

EC Canada 2 1 7USA West Coast 1 15USA Alaska 3 13 5N AMERICA 2 42 186 14 724 6EC Sth America 24 8 24 7 40 3Caribbean 2 9 46 4WC Sth America 21S&C AMERICA 24 8 26 16 107 7West Africa 24 7 44 7 242 11

South Africa 1 6 1AFRICA 24 8 50 7 243 11North Sea 17 13 224 106 264Western Europe 6 6 13 2Russian Arctic 2 1Baltic 1 1N&W EUROPE 17 14 232 113 278 2Mediterranean 1 31 12 149 4Caspian/Black Sea 3 7 2 29 10MEDITERRANEAN 1 3 38 14 178 14Middle East 1 1 3 64 4Indian Subcontinent 1 1 1 1 24East Africa 2MIDDLE EAST/ISC 1 2 4 4 88 4SE Asia 6 10 40 32 297 2

Australas ia 13 22 15 46China 3 1 15 9 83 1

Russian Far East 2 3Japan / Korea 2ASIA PACIFIC 22 11 77 58 431 3

TOTAL 91 88 613 226 2,049 47

Americas 29% 57% 35% 13% 41% 28%Africa 26% 9% 8% 3% 12% 23%Europe 20% 19% 44% 56% 22% 34%Middle East/ISC 1% 2% 1% 2% 4% 9%

Asia Pacific 24% 13% 13% 26% 21% 6%

RegionOther, 47

Ext.

Reach,

226

Subsea,

613

8895

Fixed,

2049

Offshore oil fields under construction -


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league table Sep 2012

Large Fields: >500

billion boe

Offshore Fields Under Construction - September 2012

Rank Country Number of

Fields

Av.

Distance

Av. Water

Depth (m)

DD

Ratio

Large

Fields

1 Brazil 30 154 1193 5502159 7

2 United States 15 204 1264 3864122 1

3 Angola 9 158 1562 2222884

4 Norway 25 133 235 783011

5 Australia 20 117 209 491470 56 United Kingdom 27 136 129 474176

7 Malaysia 17 95 277 447588 1

8 Nigeria 9 54 495 241395 2

9 India 27 96 78 201554 1

10 Indonesia 13 77 192 191208 1Others (29) 101 20

Total 293 38



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league table Sep 2012Offshore Fields Under Construction - September 2012

Rank Country NoAvg Dist to

Shore (km)

Avg Water

Depth (m)DD Ratio

No of Large

Fields

1 Petrobras 23 167 1,215 4,678,005 6

2 BP 10 165 895 1,473,856

3 Chevron 9 149 952 1,277,752 5

4 Total 13 109 824 1,167,488 2

5 Shell 13 115 630 938,778 2

6 ExxonMobil 11 164 446 804,056 37 QGEP 2 185 1,550 573,500

8 Statoil 13 126 266 436,440

9 Anadarko 2 180 1,086 391,258

10 Hess 2 132 1,189 313,598

11 ONGC 26 99 78 201,529

12 Helix 1 230 823 189,26513 Maersk Oil 1 138 1,355 186,990

14 Apache 5 97 370 180,137

15 Eni 7 42 540 158,415

Others (78) 155 20

Total 293 38

Major Projects at Appraisal Pre FEED &


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Major Projects at Appraisal, Pre FEED &

FEED - league tableProjects in the Appraisal, pre-FEED & FEED Stage

Country NoAvg Dist to

Shore (KM)

Avg Water

Depth (M)

DDR

CAPEX

(USD M)

where

Oil

Reserves

(MM Bbl)

Gas

Reserves

(Bcf)1 United States 10 220 1,738 3,824,480 16,000 4,303 122

2 Brazil 7 176 1,374 1,689,844 69,895 13,500 660

3 Angola 9 122 1,239 1,355,588 31,500

4 Nigeria 8 106 1,303 1,100,115 30,300 2,677 4,000

5 Australia 8 224 481 861,761 36,440 50,157

6 Indonesia 4 126 568 285,704 30,500 58,600

7 Cyprus 1 152 1696 257,792

8 Malaysia 3 101 763 230,527 3,000 808

9 United Kingdom 5 126 297 186,390 18,492 1,103 879

10 Mozambique 2 38.5 1724 132,748 50,000 2000

11 Norway 3 159 263 125,555 6,000 1,950 1,550

12 Tanzania 1 85 1400 119,000 20,000 78

13 China P.R. 2 205.5 257 105,627 240

14 Russia 1 283 320 90,560 15000 134200

15 Ghana 1 56 1427 79,912 4,000 400

Others (15) 18

Total 83


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What structureswill be needed?

Investment In Offshore Vessels


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Investment In Offshore Vessels

1. Between 2000 and 2010the industry ordered $253

billion of offshore vessels2. In 2009 investment

slumped to USD 30billion but increased toUSD 41.5 billion in 2010

and USD 62.1 billion in2011.

3. 2012 should beat 2011and be close to the

market peak.0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Bill $

Orders

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50$000/day

Support VesselsLogistics

ProductionConstructionDrillingSurveyEarnings

Source: Clarkson Research Services Ltd

Investment in new offshore structures & newbuilding prices

Offshore fleet by type of activity Sept 2012


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118294

504226237224

150100

617197

176

454841

11274

582

2303728

245

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

SeismicHydrographic

ResearchJack Up

Semi Submersible

Drill Ship &Crane VesselsPipe Layer

Cable layingTransport

AccommodationOther support

FPSOSemi-submersible

Jack UpTLP/Spar

Floating storageShuttle Tankers

SPMsAnchor handling

PSV/SupportRescue & Salvage

Number of Vessels

Mobile Drilling fleet for different depths

Logistics fleet for transporting oil

Production vessel fleet for different water depths

Support forPlatforms

& development

Total mobile fleet is 11,698 vessels, as listed belowResearch and Survey vessel fleet

Construction

Plus 7971fixed

platforms

Offshore Orderbook % fleet Sept 2012


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1

13

16

6

73

21

15

67

12

14

7

21 27

58

38

5

1

7

628

19

361

221

21

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

SeismicHydrographic

ResearchJack Up


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Production Support

Survey

MobileOffs.

Drilling

Construction

Vessel/Barge

LiftBoat/

Installation

Accommo-

dation

MSV/DSV/

ROVSupport

Dredgers

MobileOffs.

Production

Logistics

AHTS

>8,000

bhp

PSV/Supply

>3,000dwt

PSV/Supply

8,0

00

bhp

PSV/Supply

>3,0

00

dwt

PSV/Supply

offshore forum ppt merged for web

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